Dr. Bob
WASHINGTON (+3) 29 California 27
I played California over 5.5 wins as one of my season win bets but their 3-0 start may have the Bears a bit overrated while Washington is certainly better than expected. Washington lost 3 first round NFL draft picks from last year’s defense but the Huskies haven’t allowed more than 4.3 yards per play in any of their 3 games and that was against a better than average Boise State defense. Cal’s offense presents a great challenge but the Huskies held the explosive Bears to just 7 points in last year’s blowout win in Berkeley, which is impressive given Cal’s 38 points per game average in 2014. Cal will certainly be more prepared for Washington’s employment of two deep safeties and Cal has vowed to be patient and take the short completions that the Huskies are willing to give them. Cal’s offense is very good but it’s not much better than Washington’s defense has been so far this season and my math projects just 383 yards at 5.6 yards per play for the Bears.
Washington’s offensive numbers (6.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) are a bit inflated and Cal’s defensive numbers are skewed by their one bad outing last week in Texas when they had to face an extremely talented Jerrod Heard, who ran for 182 yards on 21 runs and averaged 18.2 yards per completion. Cal’s run defense is actually very good (they gave up only 4.4 yprp to the Texas running backs) and Washington quarterback Jake Browning is not a runner so the only way to beat the Bears is through the air. Cal’s allowed 48.4% completions but they’ve been hurt by big pass plays (15.7 yards per completion allowed). That yards per completion number is well outside the normal range and should come down and Browning’s good yards per pass play numbers (8.4 yppp) are skewed by a couple of 80 yard passes, one of which was a short pass to a running back that went 81 yards. I still project Washington to average 7.5 yards per pass play even after adjusting for the variance in Cal’s defensive yards per completion average and Browning’s yards per completion average. The math projects 422 yards at 6.1 yppl for Washington. Overall the math favors Washington by a couple of points and I like the Huskies plus the points.
Dr. Bob
SOUTH CAROLINA (-15) 31 Central Florida 11
My highest rated season win bet on UCF under 7 wins is looking pretty good with the Knights sitting at 0-3 with two losses as double-digit favorites, the last of which was last week as a 24 ½ point home favorite against FCS team Furman. The Knights are horrific on offense and it’s even worse now with starting quarterback Justin Holman out. Holman’s numbers were down this year because of a major downgrade in talent at the receiver position but at least he completed 64% of his passes and made the most of the receiver talent on hand. Holman’s backups, however, have completed just 45% of their passes while averaging only 3.4 yards per pass play. South Carolina has a horrendous pass defense, as the Gamecocks have allowed 75.3% completions and 8.2 yards per pass play (although against quarterbacks that would average 7.1 yppp against an average team). It’s the not so classic case of a stoppable force against a moveable object. The math projects South Carolina to be the winner of that pathetic battle and projects only 267 total yards at 4.0 yards per play for the Knights.
South Carolina is turning to Lorenzo Nunez to start at quarterback this week after an injury to Connor Mitch and ineffectiveness by backup Perry Orth. Nunez is untested as a passer with 4 very short completions on 5 attempts for just 18 yards but he’s an excellent runner that has 116 yards on 12 runs over the last 2 weeks off the bench. South Carolina would be better off with more of a passing quarterback against a UCF defense that is very good against the run (3.7 yprp allowed) but horrible defending the pass (8.2 yppp allowed) but the Gamecocks are still projected to move the ball pretty well and are likely to cover.
Tennessee (pick) 21 FLORIDA 20
Both of these teams are strong defensively but below average offensively and I expect a low scoring game. Tennessee was expected to be good offensively but the Vols have averaged a modest 5.5 yards per play against 3 teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack and they were held to just 3.5 yppl by Oklahoma – the only good defensive team they’ve faced. Florida is significantly better defensively than Oklahoma is, as the Gators have yielded only 4.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. Tennessee will likely struggle to move the ball in this game and my math model projects just 306 yards at 4.2 yppl for the Vols’ attack.
Florida’s offense will be led by Will Grier, who was splitting snaps with Treon Harris before Harris was injured. Grier has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play but he’s done so against mostly bad defensive teams that would allow 7.1 yppl to an average quarterback and he averaged only 4.9 yppp last week against Kentucky, the only better than average defense that he’s faced (Kentucky would allow 5.6 yppp at home to an average QB). Tennessee has been really good defending the pass, allowing 5.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.7 yppp against an average defensive team, so Grier is likely to struggle against this week. Florida’s rushing attack has been below average (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team) and the Vols have a solid run defense that rates at 0.6 yprp better than average (excluding the 97 yards on 11 runs that their backups gave up last week to Western Carolina in garbage time). Florida should also struggle offensively and the team that makes fewer mistakes (i.e turnovers) should win a low scoring affair. I'd pass on the side but I think the under (48) is good play.
ALABAMA (-38) 46 UL Monroe 10
My math favors Alabama by 39 ½ points but the Tide may come out flat after last week’s emotional gut punch by Ole’ Miss. Alabama applies to a negative 20-56-1 ATS big favorite situation and the Tide are only 1-9 ATS the week after a loss under coach Nick Saban.
Texas A&M (-7) 33 Arkansas 27
Arkansas has suffered upset losses in consecutive weeks versus Toledo (as a 21 ½ point favorite) and Texas Tech but I actually lean with the Razorbacks in the underdog role. Arkansas wasn’t horrible in those two losses, as the offense averaged 470 yards at 6.3 yards per play while the defense gave up 383 yards per game at 6.6 yppl. My issue with Arkansas is that they’ve lost 3 of their top 4 wide receivers to injury with Jared Cornelius (broken arm) joining top wide out Keon Hatcher and Cody Hollister on the injury list. I bet on Texas A&M as a huge long shot to win the national championship and I’m happy that they’ve started 3-0 with a pivotal win over Arizona State to start the season. However, the Aggies aren’t actually as good as I expected them to be. I was correct in calling for the defense to go from bad to better than average (0.5 yards per play better than average so far) but the offense isn’t as good as their 46 points per game suggests. Texas A&M has averaged 6.3 yards per play but they’ve done so against 3 defensive units that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. My math model favors A&M by only 4 ½ points but I get 6 points after adjusting for receiver injury issues for Arkansas. On a side note, I love Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury putting Arkansas coach Bret Bielema in his place after beating the Razorbacks last week. Look up the video if you haven’t seen it. I’m sure Kingsbury will be rooting for another spread attack to “kick his ass” this week. I’m not sure that’s going to happen but I’d like it to.
MISSISSIPPI (-25½) 41 Vanderbilt 10
The question here is if Mississippi will suffer a letdown after their big upset win at Alabama last Saturday night. My database suggests not. Teams that beat Alabama are 4-3 ATS the next week since the Tide became a power in 2008 and teams that win as a road underdog actually are pretty good bets as big home favorites in their next game. In fact, teams with a .500 or better record that are coming off a straight up road upset win are 137-91-2 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 7 points against losing teams. The percentage is even higher for favorites of more than 21 points (64.4% at 38-21-1 ATS) so there is no evidence that Ole’ Miss will suffer a letdown here and my rating favor the Rebels by 28 points. Coach Hugh Freeze also has a history of beating up on bad teams, as his teams are now 14-3-1 ATS when favored by more than 14 points, including wins of 76-3 and 73-21 this season.
Mississippi State (+2½) 30 AUBURN 28
Auburn has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation despite a 2-1 start to their season. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS and needed overtime to beat FCS team Jacksonville State before getting blown out 21-45 at LSU last week in a game that wasn’t even that close. Much was expected of new quarterback Jeremy Johnson but he’s been a bust as a starter so far, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) while throwing 6 interceptions. The usually unstoppable Auburn rushing attack isn’t as good with Johnson running the zone read plays this season and the results is an average of just 5.1 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp). Auburn obviously has potential to be better offensively given the talent on hand but I won’t assume anything more than they’ve shown so far and that’s not enough to consistently move the ball against a solid Miss State defense.
Mississippi State is also not as good offensively this season but the rushing attack should post pretty good numbers in this game against an Auburn defense that’s allowed an average of 287 rushing yards at 6.5 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average defense. Veteran quarterback Dak Prescott doesn’t have the experience around him that he enjoyed last season and his numbers have been just mediocre in two games against FBS teams (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) but he also doesn’t make mistakes (0 interceptions in 3 games), which could be the difference in this game. Auburn has been good in pass defense but the Bulldogs should run the ball well enough to move the ball fairly consistently and my math model favors Miss State by 1½ points.
Bob Balfe
Angels -105
I hate to go against Felix Hernandez in any game especially if you do cash in you only get even money here, but this Angels team is peaking and can play themselves into a wildcard spot with a win tonight. Seattle isn’t going anywhere this year so why pitch Hernandez any more than a few innings to keep him fresher for the next season? I think the Angels have the best shot between themselves the Twins and the Astros. Time will tell. Take the Angels.
Mr Vegas
Texas at Houston
Play: Houston
Texas State hasn't been playing any defense, giving up 59 to Florida State and last week's 56-50 loss to Southern Miss at home. Now they head out on the road and the Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Houston (2-0) has had two weeks to prepare after winning at Louisville as a +14 dog, 34-31. Houston outgained Louisville 462-395 and recorded four turnovers and 20-7-1 ATS following a win, including 19-7-1 ATS following a spread win. Houston is also 18-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and holds all the cards.
Bob Balfe
Tennessee +1
The main point in this game in my opinion is the Florida Offensive Line. I don’t think this team is ready to string together wins in SEC play with this unit just yet. This team has a young QB and when that line breaks down mistakes happen. Tennessee was in the same position Florida was in last year, but now have experience in the trenches, a very good QB and a ton of capable playmakers on offense. The Gators suspended one of their starting cornerback and now will have rotate in guys with no college experience under their belt. Tennessee has a decent secondary and now with the return of McNeil this unit should be able to slow this Gator Offense down. There is no such thing as “good” loss, but the Vols are going to learn a lot from the meltdown they had against Oklahoma a few weeks back. Florida has been flirting with disaster and I believe they will be exposed today, but a superior football team. Take Tennessee.
Dave Cokin
N.C. State -17.5
There's always some concern when laying a load of points, whether at home or on the road. But circumstances being what they are and factoring in my personal power ratings, I think that's the way to play today as North Carolina State journeys to Mobile for a meeting with South Alabama.
NC State is on a roll. The Wolfpack haven't played anyone of note to start the season. But they're a dominant 3-0, and they've maintained the very positive momentum from their impressive finish to the 2014 campaign. This is a very explosive team on offense. There's loads of talent at the skill positions and to be candid, I'm a little surprised that QB Jacoby Brissett isn't getting a bit more national play. His numbers are spectacular and with the dynamic Dayes/Thornton RB tandem, I think we're going to see Brissett continue to flourish once ACC play gets underway.
The surprise so far is how staunch the Wolfpack defense has been. Granted, the competition has not been the stiffest. But the NC State defense is accruing some really impressive numbers. If this turns out to be reality rather than a soft schedule fluke, all I can say is watch out for this team in conference play.
South Alabama is returning home from a west coast journey that resulted in what sure appears to be the single biggest win in program history. The Jaguars were huge dogs last Saturday at San Diego State, but they forced the Aztecs to overtime and then walked away with a thrilling 34-27 win.
I'll be interested to see how South Alabama reacts to registering such a great win. Programs not used to enjoying success can frequently go flat off a win of that magnitude. The Jaguars are somewhat limited in terms of overall talent, so any letdown here would likely result in a lopsided loss.
I also don't see this as a good matchup for the home dogs. Cody Clements is okay under center but he's not really a game changing type of QB. The Jaguars need to work the ground game and hope Xavier Johnson can break a big run or two. That's not likely to be easy against a Wolfpack rush defense that has been sensational over the first three weeks.
I have this game at NC State -22. As I've pointed out previously, early season power ratings can sometimes get a bit skewed due to the opposition. But the fact remains this team has really dominated the three soft touches on the schedule. Meanwhile, while that certainly was a great win for the Jaguars last week, they've regularly gotten hammered when stepping up in class.
NC State has a big revenge spot with Louisville on deck, so that's a concern. But I think it's offset with the home dog looking to avoid the bounce following, what for them, was a major upset. South Alabama needs to keep this close early to have a legit chance to hang in. If they accomplish that feat, then the spread becomes a pothole that's tougher to negotiate. But NC State has been a rocket out of the starting gate so far this season and if they get ahead early here, this one could be blowout city in a hurry. I'll trust the numbers and I like the momentum on the road favorite's side. North Carolina State minus the points is the play.
Andy Iskoe
Virginia Tech -10
Last week we went against ECU with a play on Navy and the Middies' 45-21 win added confirmation to the thought that the Pirates will be down considerably from the past 3 seasons. Virginia Tech may be better than expected, passing its first road test with a 51-24 win at Purdue. Recall that Tech gave Ohio State a game in the first half of their opener before losing their QB, changing the entire complexion of the game. Tech is in revenge here after losing at home to ECU last season 28-21 (favored by 9 ½). That loss came a week after Tech's upset win at Ohio State which created a huge letdown spot. ECU has played Tech tough over the past decade. Despite winning just twice ECU is 5-1-1 ATS vs the Hokies. Which works to keep this number deflated as the Pirates are still rated higher than they should be in what is a rebuilding season.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Eagles of Eastern Michigan as the small home favorite over the Black Knights of Army.
It's not that I feel EMU is dominant here - in fact this will be their first try as a home favorite since 2011 - but the fact of the matter is Eastern Michigan is at home, and they are playing an Army side that has been among the poorest road teams in ALL of college football!
The Black Knights have dropped 22 in a row away from West Point, and they have covered just twice in those 22 setbacks.
In 2013 the Eagles were clobbered 50-25 at Michie Stadium, time for payback. It may not be a 25 point win, but I expect Eastern Michigan to cover this small impost.
Army makes it 23 losses in a row on the road.
Back Eastern Michigan.
2* EASTERN MICHIGAN
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Saturday in college football will be to take the massive impost the Eagles of Southern Miss are getting in their visit to Lincoln for a date with a Nebraska team that has to be bit deflated after their comeback bid at Miami-Florida last weekend fell shy by a field goal in OT.
USM has covered all 3 of their games this season, and are now 5-2 against the spread as the road dog with their outright win at Texas State last weekend.
The Huskers have already lost outright twice now in their 3 games, and they do have their conference opener on the road in Champaign next weekend versus Illinois to distract them just enough to leave the door open for a Southern Miss cover plus the big number.
Take the generous points and this live underdog.
Southern Miss the call.
4* SOUTHERN MISS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is East Carolina to cover in their game against Virginia Tech.
The Pirates have proved to be a sticky matchup in recent years for the Hokies, as ECU won last year's meeting in Blacksburg outright, and have gone 3-0 against the spread in the last 3 series meetings, and 5-1-1 against the spread in the 7 meetings since 2007!
Ruffin McNeil's team has lost their last pair straight up, but they have not lost 3 in a row straight up since back in the 2008 campaign, so any Hokies win today will be hard to come by.
V-Tech smashed Purdue last weekend, but the Boilers are not a very good team, and the fact remains the Gobblers have been eating their backers money to a tune of 9 of their last 11 when favored on the highway!
Points work again in this rivalry. East Carolina the play.
3* EAST CAROLINA
Craig Davis
Okay, so maybe I'm a glutton for punishment. Your free play of the day is, yes, Ohio State minus the points over Western Michigan. At the time of this writing, the Buckeyes are laying 31 to 31 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
Call today "statement week"... as a lot of teams have a chance to make a STATEMENT after playing a poor game or two over the last two weeks. This is one of two or three different weekends in which this happens.
There are a lot of games that meet that criteria today/tonight. USC/Arizona (somewhat), Texas A&M/Arkansas, Utah/Oregon, etc.
These "statement" games are simply talked about among the teams but really not discussed with the media, but they clearly exist.
Ohio State is the top ranked team in the country and have been there since the beginning of the season. Problem is, they're playing worse football right now than they did against Virginia Tech in Week 1.
From offensive line struggles to the QB carousel to issues with Zeke Elliott "going through the motions", there have clearly been a ton of instances in which the Buckeyes are playing to their competition.
Had the first three weeks gone according to plan, we wouldn't be talking about this. But today Ohio State knows they need to make a STATEMENT and what better way to get that than by blowing the doors off a lesser opponent at home.
Take the Buckeyes minus the big number as your free play of the day.
3* OHIO STATE
Scott Delane
My free play for Saturday is on the Wyoming Cowboys, laying the points to visiting New Mexico. This is one area I am always looking at, and searching for value, because of how tough it is to play in Laramie. Whether it's basketball or football, I always search for money value with the Cowboys, no matter who they're playing, because of the altitude.
New Mexico is a run-first offense, using a triple-option, but that thin air could pose a problem if it affects the Lobos' breathing. If Wyoming can shut down New Mexico's running game, the Lobos will be forced to pass, which it doesn’t do often. UNM ranks 116th in FBS with 149.7 passing yards per game.
And since the Cowboys are dealing with their first 0-3 start since 2012, I think they're going to be more than motivated. Their first win is upon them, as this game is theirs for the taking.
Last week against Washington State, Wyoming had a balanced attack, with a run-pass ratio of 40 runs and 36 passes - a huge improvement from the first two weeks of the campaign.
Look for the Pokes to get off the schneid this weekend with a win and cover over New Mexico.
1* WYOMING
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Mississippi State (+2) at AUBURN
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - Huge SEC game with Mississippi State visiting Auburn tonight. And while so many are stuck on Auburn's tradition, I'm rolling with State's Dak Prescott, one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, and certainly the most accomplished in the conference. This is a cheap number because Mississippi State has a legit shot at winning this game outright.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is Prescott, who has had his way with Auburn's defense during his storied career for the Bulldogs. Prescott has tallied 713 yards in total offense the past two meetings, throwing for 200-plus yards and topping 100 rushing yards both times. Today he takes on a defense that has a vulnerable secondary and a poor recent track record against mobile quarterbacks.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - This would be a huge win for the Dawgs, who regrouped nicely from a 21-19 loss to LSU, by terrorizing FCS Northwestern State, setting a school record with 647 total yards. Auburn (2-1, 0-1) was a popular pick to win its division, while the Bulldogs (2-1, 0-1) were picked last. I think MSU will be looking to prove some people wrong.
3* MISSISSIPPI STATE
Joseph D'Amico
Colorado State vs. Texas-San Antonio
Play: Colorado State -10
UTSA has been outscored, 99-17 the L2 weeks by K State and Ok State. To make matters worse, the Roadrunners are now juggling QB's. Colorado State comes off of two 3-pt losses, but has a huge edge here on both sides of the ball. Nick Stevens has 61.6% CR, 622 YP, and 6 TD's. The QB has 2 solid ball-carriers in Dawkins and Oden, not to mention 3 outstanding receivers. The Rams are 10-3 ATS their L13 road games, 11-1-1 ATS their L13 non-conference games, and 20-8-1 ATS their L29 overall. The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS their L6 at home, 1-4 ATS their L5 non-conference, and 3-10 ATS their L13 overall.
Kyle Hunter
Arizona State +6
The USC Trojans have a wealth of talent, but right now they aren't maximizing it well. The Trojans were a big disappointment in losing 4 games last year. They crushed two subpar teams in the first two weeks and then were humbled at home by Stanford last week. How does a team with this much talent on defense give up 41 points to a conservative Stanford offense? Steve Sarkisian is going to be on the hot seat soon. Sarkisian has made a bunch of questionable decisions late in key games, and it costed this team on the road several times last year. Arizona State was a team a bunch of people were high on before the season. They haven't played very well this year, but I think many have overreacted to their slow start. After all, Arizona State played a very good Texas A&M team in week one (and the game was closer than the final score would indicate) and then played two weak teams in the leadup to this game. The Sun Devils weren't good in the last two weeks, but those were clear look ahead spots. They were looking ahead to this game. Arizona State has a great home field atmosphere and this is a late night game where the crowd will be going crazy. USC is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Arizona State. It won't surprise me if Arizona State pulls off the outright upset.