Rob Vinciletti
NC State vs. South Alabama
Play: NC State -17
The Pack should have their way in this game as they are firing on all cylinders at 3-0 and allowing less than 200 yards on defense. They are 5-0 ats off back to back wins. South Alabama comes in off a huge road win as a 17 point dog win at SD. St. That sets up our big power system that plays against home dogs off a +14 or higher road dog win vs an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or higher. These home teams have failed to cover 27 of 34 times long term. South Alabama has failed to cover 6 of the last 7 vs Winning teams. Look for NC. St to coast to a win and cover.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -2½ over Toronto
The Argos have had two weeks to prepare for this one but the toll of a grueling schedule and three straight losses has these Argonauts off the tracks and we don’t like their chances of a regroup. Toronto desperately wanted to make a statement against Hamilton in their back-to-back games around Labour Day weekend. They didn’t. Instead, the Argos would go on to get schooled by a Ticats team that outgained them in the first game by 245 yards and whacked them by 30 points. The ‘Cats also outgained Toronto in the rematch. In fact, the Argos have been outgained in six straight games and outgained by 175 yards or more in three of those. The Argos most effective player over the past month has been their punter.
Ottawa is a second year expansion team that is playing like anything but. That expansion team label and season projection of four wins has them completely underpriced here. If these same players were wearing the uniforms of an established CFL franchise they would be a -7 point choice here or more. The market has not bought into Ottawa’s success but we have. Ottawa is getting stronger, not weaker. They’re coming off two dominating performances in Saskatchewan and B.C. The Redblacks 30-27 win in Regina last week is this year’s most flattering score to the loser. The Redblacks outgained the Riders by 256 yards and could have easily won by four TD’s. Saskatchewan had a mere 15 first downs in that game to the Redblacks 28. Two weeks ago in British Columbia, Ottawa outgained the Lions at B.C. Place by 262 yards in a 31-18 victory. In summarizing, Ottawa has outgained their past two opponents by a combined 518 yards while the Argos have been outgained in three of their last four games by a combined 602 yards. If these roles were reversed, that being Toronto dominating and Ottawa was being dominated and the game was in Toronto, the Argos would be -13 points. Now this game is in Ottawa and we only have to spot 2½-points because they are still considered an expansion franchise. TD Place Stadium in Ottawa will be jam packed tonight. The fans there are as passionate and supportive as any in the country. It has already proved to be a difficult place to play and now the Redblacks come in here in top form and with the belief that they have a chance to represent the East in the Grey Cup game. Truth is, they do but they’re not priced like it. We usually don’t see underlays like this one and we’re not about to miss this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON COLLEGE -4½ over Northern Illinois
The Huskies may appear to be an enticing play after they stood toe-to-toe with the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes last week in Columbus, Ohio. Had it not been for failing to capitalize on a lethargic Buckeyes offense riddled with miscues and missed red zone opportunities, perhaps the Huskies would have pulled off an unprecedented upset. In the early going, we have seen the market overreact to NIU’s “triumphant” 20-13 defeat at The Horseshoe last week, conversely showing a lack of faith in Boston College, who enters the game on a loss as well, suffering a 14-0 shutout at home against Florida State, last Saturday.
However, the most overlooked statistic is the vaunted defense of Boston College. Premier superlatives are not sufficient to describe the performance of this unit. The Eagles are the nation’s TOP defense in three of four major defensive categories and second overall in scoring defense (5.7 PPG). This is also the same Boston College team that decimated Howard University, 76-0 at home just two weeks ago before losing to #14 Florida State. While we do recognize that Howard is by no means a FBS blue blood, there is still something to be said about a team that orchestrates a perfect performance on both sides of the ball, regardless of opponent. Additionally, the Eagles held the 14th ranked Seminoles to a mere 14 points.
While NIU may have hung around against Ohio State, it was in fact the Buckeyes defense which did in the Huskies in the end. Why would we expect anything different from this defense? We often look to go against a team coming off of a near epic upset against a true power. The entire nation was keeping an eye on that game. The Huskies could smell the upset and opportunity. The “upset alert” was flashing across television screens all over America but in the end it was a loss that stings. Instead of jubilation, there is a feeling of “what could have been” and now the team must prep again for a road game against a lesser opponent. For NIU, that’s not likely to turn out well.
Florida Intl +14 over LOUISIANA TECH
We saw Florida International in this position just three weeks ago against Central Florida. FIU entered that game as a 10½-point road dog. The Panthers would not only cover but they would pull off a stunning 15-14 upset of the highly touted Golden Knights. Now, here they are again, positioned as a significant road dog against an overvalued favorite. This is a Louisiana Tech team that sports an impressive offensive unit anchored by former Gator transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel and overlooked stud running back Kenneth Dixon. However, the Bulldogs feature one of the worst defenses in America in three major statistical categories (points against, total yards against and total passing yards against).
However, what is truly overlooked is FIU’s staunch rushing defense which ranks among the best in the country by giving up just 96.3 yards per game. Driskel has been brilliant this season, as his performance is eons improved compared to his days at Florida but this is more a testament to how good of a rusher Kenneth Dixon is. Stop or contain Dixon and Tech’s win expectation drops significantly. Even if Dixon has a great game, it guarantees nothing because the defense can’t get off the field. Louisiana Tech has lost twice already because of poor defense to Western Kentucky and last week to K-State in triple OT. The market is giving Florida International very little credit here and that provides us with an opportunity. When your defense can’t get off the field, spotting two TD’s is very risky business. Tech is 1-2 spotting big weight to a 2-1 team that has played a similar schedule. This pooch has been successful in this very predicament before and they can absolutely stay well within this range throughout.
UMass +29½ over NOTRE DAME
The Fighting Irish entered their game last week against Georgia Tech as a marginal underdog and would go on to dominate the game from start to finish. Notre Dame would slash and gash the Yellow Jackets defense for 475 yards in route to a 30-22 win in what many expected to be a loss due to the absence of injured quarterback Malik Zaire. After escaping Virginia just a week before on a miraculous touchdown which fell in to the hands of wide receiver Will Fuller who managed to take advantage of blown coverage, the Fighting Irish have gained momentum and have since become a fundamentally strong favorite that is ranked #6 in the country. You’ll pay a premium to back them here.
Massachusetts, taking back inflated points has plenty of appeal here. Anchored by seasoned quarterback Blake Frohnapfel, the Minutemen have quietly assembled a militant passing offense that has achieved top-twenty supremacy. UMass averages a resounding 321.5 passing yards per game and managed to scare and threaten a talented Temple defense just last week in a heartbreaking 25-23 loss in Amherst. While Notre Dame is a step up for the Minutemen in terms of quality of opposition, this club has already squared off with power conference competition in Colorado in the opening week of the season. Despite losing 48-14, we saw significant progress in the Minutemen from their first game to their second. At first glance, the 0-2 Minutemen appear as a snack to the undefeated Fighting Irish but this is one of those very tricky spots for the favorite. You see, Notre Dame is coming off a huge win over Georgia Tech. They have an even bigger game on deck next week at #11 Clemson. The propensity for a favorite of this size in this spot is to relax and even call the dogs off in the second half if they’re up big. For the Minutemen, this is their “championship” game. UMass has nothing close to a game like this on their entire schedule and it’s the perfect setup for them to come in here and make a game of it. Notre Dame has several banged up bodies. Coach Brian Kelly will not hesitate to give some the day off, or substitute them in and out all day with the back-ups. This underdog certainly has backdoor potential to go with the possibility of a sluggish start or a sluggish game in its entirety from the favorite.
DUKE +7 over Georgia Tech
Both teams enter this contest on a low note, coming in off defeats while favored in previous match-ups last Saturday. The Yellow Jackets were stunned when they visited South Bend last week. Many forecasted Georgia Tech to rout the Notre Dame in light of the injury to gifted Fighting Irish starting quarterback Malik Zaire. However, the Irish ran up, over and around the vaunted Yellow Jackets defense, compiling 215 yards on the ground with an average of 6.7 yards per rush. This is not typically characteristic of Paul Johnson’s traditionally stout rushing defenses and now Georgia Tech will embark on the road against a Duke offense that has put together an impressive 223 yards on the ground per game.
Some are giving the Yellow Jackets a pass for their efforts last week in South Bend but we’re not. Georgia Tech entered the season as a heavy favorite to win the ACC. They had two nothing games prior and so they had been gearing up for their showdown against Notre Dame for three weeks. The Jackets are still ranked #20 in the country. Tech’s two victories this year have come against Alcorn State and Tulane yet the market still loves this bunch. Now the Yellow Jackets are in a “must-win” situation. You will almost always pay a premium to wager on these ranked teams in must-win games. You will also pay a premium to wager on ranked teams versus unranked opponents. These situations have proven to be nothing but bankroll killers over the years.
We certainly don’t see this as a high scoring game given the defensive prowess of both. We use the term "bubble-burst" to refer to teams that are unable to meet the expectations of the market to put their seasons back on the rails after goal-wrecking losses, and the Yellow Jackets appear at least to be a candidate. Teams coming off such losses are seldom good plays, and as 2007 Cal, 2000 Alabama and 2008 BYU all demonstrated, can underperform for the rest of the season after the bubble is popped. It's difficult to read this early in the season, but if the Jackets are indeed still in the tank, they'll go down again to a confident Duke team that has a lot of good wins over the past couple of years, which includes marching into Bobby Dodd Stadium last year and upsetting then #22 Georgia Tech, 31-25. We always look at unranked teams getting significant weight at home against ranked opponents and this one fits.
WASHINGTON +114 over California
Many may be enamored by the Golden Bears’ sparkling 3-0 record but don’t count us among them. The level of proficiency showcased here by Cal is a bit inaccurate. The Golden Bears won their first two games over Grambling State and San Diego State in the cozy confines of Strawberry Canyon. Increasing their market appeal is the fact that Cal managed to outscore that aforementioned pair, 108-21. Then Cal went to Texas and defeated the Longhorns last week, 45-44 as a 6½-point favorite. Thing is, Cal’s defense made the Longhorns offense look like Ole Miss. The Golden Bears blew a 35-14 second half lead last week and held on because the ‘Horns missed a convert in the final seconds that would have tied it. Sonny Dyke’s Bears have a history of blowing leads, sloppy clock management and weak defenses. Some things never change. When you compare the level of play that the Bears have faced against this formidable 2-1 Washington Huskies club, it is safe to assume that the Huskies are the best team the Bears will face year to date.
Washington has had a far different journey leading up to this game, Chris Petersen’s bunch opened up on the road at Boise State, falling 16-13 in a hard fought loss. Since their opening defeat, the Huskies have been cruising, demolishing the opposition by a combined margin of 80-17. What is even more remarkable is the stingy play of the Washington defense in a notoriously offense-oriented Pac 12. The Huskies rank among the top 15 nationally in total defense, points against and rushing yards allowed. Furthermore, Washington allows just 174.7 passing yards per game. On the contrary, the Bears live and die by their high-powered offense while their defense rates toward the lower third in the country in all major categories. The Longhorns truly exposed the penetrability of the Cal defensive unit last week and highlighted their notable struggles in hostile environments. We don’t expect Husky Stadium to be any more welcoming. Keep the points. Washington outright is the call.
ASA
Arizona +3.5
Today we side with the home underdog Arizona Wildcats plus the points over UCLA. The Bruins drew a lot of attention after their week 1 34-16 win over Virginia with freshman QB Rosen bursting onto the college scene with a 28 of 35 day for 351 yards and 3 TD's. That opening day win along with a blowout of UNLV had everyone talking about the Bruins and currently has them over-rated. Since the opener, Rosen, has seen his numbers steadily decline and last week in their come from behind win over BYU, he was just 11 of 23 for 101 yards and 3 picks. Now UCLA is going on the road for their Pac-12 opener against Arizona and are laying points. When we talk about value and the pointspread we take into consideration what the line was last year when these same two teams met in California where UCLA was a -6.5-point chalk. These teams return nearly the same number of players from last year's team which means this line should have the Wildcats a 3-point home favorite but instead they're getting points. We like the edge the Cats have at QB with Anu Solomon who was a potential Heisman candidate coming into the season. Solomon has completed 68.3% of his pass attempts for 778 yards and 10 TD's to zero interceptions. He's got some great receivers to throw to along with a dynamic runner in the backfield with Nick Wilson. Wilson has 434 yards on 62 carries this season for a 7-yard average per carry. Now the Bruins have their own capable running back with Perkins who has 429 rushing yards and solid receivers but Arizona has the clear advantage at QB. Statistically the Wildcats have better numbers but they haven't played a very good schedule thus far but we also feel they've played 'possum' to start the season. Arizona under Rich Rodriguez the Wildcats are 18-5 SU in Tuscon, 10-0 SU when hosting a top 10 foe and 3-0 as a home underdog, The home team is 9-3 ATS the last 12 in this series with Arizona covering 5 of the last 6 on their home field. Terrific value here with the Wildcats!
Vegas Butcher
Tampa Bay Rays +150 (1st 5 innings)
Archer is a top-10 pitcher this year, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 3rd against left-handers this season, and Price is coming off an outing where he threw 114 pitches. There’s a lot of value on the underdog in this one. Keeping BP’s out of it as Tampa is at a disadvantage there.
San Francisco Giants -117
What a cool moment in this one as Zito and Hudson will get to face off against one another prior to retiring from the game of baseball. Putting that aside though, I think the Giants have a tremendous edge in this game. Zito hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013 and in his first appearance for the A’s this year (out of the bullpen) on 09/20 he lasted an inning, allowed 2 hits, issues 1 BB, and gave up a HR without striking anyone out. This is a guy who barely throws 83 MPH at this point in his career. I don’t think Zito lasts long in this game and A’s have a pretty bad BP. Giants have a strong pitching advantage throughout this one.
Atlanta Braves -120 (1st 5 Innings)
Atlanta’s BP is terrible so will take that out of the equation. The difference here is pitching. While Teheran has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 6 of his last 8 starts, Nicolino has gotten ‘rocked’ in 3 straight appearances. This is a pitcher who has 21 K’s in 60 innings this year (not a mistake). When you can’t strike anyone out, and you give up a lot of HR’s (5 in the last 5 starts), it’s a disaster waiting to happen. Braves are horrible offensively but so are the Marlins. Atlanta though has a strong starting pitching advantage in this one and I like their chances in the first 5.
Cleveland Indians +115
Yesterday the Royals gave a game away. Today won’t be as easy, but I still think Cleveland is undervalued. Tomlin has been excellent (2.4 ERA) and their bullpen has been very strong lately. Medlen has looked better than he really is (3.5 ERA but 4.3 xFIP). In his recent start against the Indians he registered a 5.8 SIERA, and though he was lucky to escape unscathed, chances of that happening again are slim. I like Cleveland again today and hopefully the Royals’ players are still a bit hung over from Thursday J
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 RL -105
Kendrick is a bottom-3 pitcher this season. In his 3 starts against the Dodgers he has allowed 13 runs, 3 HR’s, and only registered 8 K’s in 17 innings of work. With a 7.4 home ERA I like LA’s chances of hitting him today. On the other side we have Anderson who is in a bounce-back spot after allowing 10 hits and 5 runs in his previous outing. He’ll take on a Rockies team that ranks dead-last against lefties so chances of a strong outing are high. Big discrepancy in the bullpen as well here and with all these edges I like the Dodgers to win by 2+ today.