Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Indiana @ Michigan
PICK: Indiana +21.5
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For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the visiting side: The Hoosiers rolled to a relatively easy victory last week, 38-21 over the Zips and I look for them to do just enough to get the cover in their game vs. the Wolverines this week with the large spread they've been afforded. Last weeks win was IU’s first on the road since Sept. 29, 2007 when the Hoosiers knocked off Iowa in Iowa City; Indiana has to be feeling good about itself as head coach Bill Lynch wanted to be 3-0 before heading to take on Michigan in Ann Arbor and that's exactly the position they find themselves in. Michigan went on to beat Eastern Michigan 45-17 last week, however it was 24-17 at half time and I'm looking for a similar lapse in play vs. Indiana. Over the last three seasons Michigan is just 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 10 1/2 to 21 points and 7-9 ATS against conference opponents. Indiana normally comes out of the blocks running full speed; when taking into account the three games its won this year, the Hoosiers are 8-3 ATS in the month of September over the last three seasons and I expect this strong trend to continue; play on the HOOSIERS!
Ben Burns
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Southern Miss at Kansas
Prediction: Southern Miss
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Both teams come in at 3-0. However, while the Jayhawks are 2-0 ATS in their lined games, the Golden Eagles are 0-2 ATS in theirs. I believe that's provided us with some value with the visitors.
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After going 12-1 in 2007, the Jayhawks took a step back last year, falling to 8-5. This year's team is better than last year's team and is worthy of respect. That said, I don't think they're as tough as the 2007 team and here they'll be facing their most difficult test yet.
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The Golden Eagles are a very experienced team, one which returned a ton (19) of starters from last year. They're among the most talented teams in CUSA and are in the second year of their coach's system. The Golden Eagles beat a team (Virginia) from a BCS Conference last week and the last time that they took on a Big 12 team on the road (Nebraska in 2004) they won the game outright.
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Last week's victory was of the "momentum-building variety" for the Golden Eagles, as they rallied from a large second half deficit to earn the victory. While this is the Golden Eagles' first road game, note that they were 8-4 ATS (7-5 SU) on the road the past couple of seasons. Looking back a bit further and we find them at a profitable 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs of 10.5 to 14 points. I look for the Golden Eagles "close game experience" to serve them well here and look for them to give the Jayhawks a much tougher game than many are probably expecting.
Vernon Croy
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Ohio vs. Tennessee U
Play: Tennessee -21
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I do not look for a let down from this Vols team that had a chance to upset Florida last week instead I look for them to dominate this Ohio Bobcats team Saturday. The Vols defense is extremely solid with opponents averaging just 197.3 yard per game against them this season and only 16.3 ppg. The Vols have had to play a lot tougher teams than the Bobcats so far this season and yet the Bobcats numbers are not good at all offensively averaging just 103.3 rypg and just 303 total yards per game this season. The Bobcats will not be able to move the ball against this Vols defense and the Vols offense will be able to score at will so I look for Tennessee to cover by at least 4 touchdowns Saturday. The Vols are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after they have allow more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. The Bobcats depend on moving the ball through the air but the Vols defense has only allowed 88.3 pypg this season including just 115 passing yards against #1 Florida last week. Take the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday.
Alex Smart
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Fresno St. @ Cincinnati
PICK: Cincinnati -16
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Fresno State is off hard fought back to back losses to Wisconsin and Boise State . Now exhausted and in a let down situation they travel west to east to go against an explosive Cincinnati Bearcats program that has won their first three games of the season by a combined 145-36 count, with the average margin of victory coming by 36.3 PPG. It must be noted that the Bearcats (No.14) have won 14 straight vs non BCS opponents and I'm betting on another positive effort today , and more importantly for our bankrolls to expand as we cover the DD spread. It must also be noted that the Bearcats once questionable and vulnerable D, is currently exceeding expectations, holding opponents to just 12 PPG on 271 total yards.With that said, I will not be surprised if they limit Fresno's star running back Ryan Mathews to a season low rushing output. Final notes & Key Trends: Last week Cincinnati ended Oregon State 26 game non conference home winning streak with a 28-18 win limiting the Beavers to 104 rushing yards on 36 carries. The Bulldogs have failed to cover 12 of their L/14 ATS off a home loss. Fresno State has lost 10 straight to top 25 ranked teams. Cincinnati has won 16 of their L/18 home games SU. Projected score: Cincinnati 38 Fresno State 20
Matt Fargo
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LSU @ Mississippi St.
PICK: Miss St. +12.5
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I was very impressed with Mississippi St. last week. I used them as a premium play and it won outright over Vanderbilt as an 8.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs outgained the Commodores 341-157 and the defense allowed just 33 yards rushing on 29 carries (1.1 ypc). It was a huge win considering not only was it on the road but it showed great resolve following a blowout loss as Auburn the previous week. While that was impressive, the LSU victory over Louisiana-Lafayette was not. The Tigers won that game by 28 points but they outgained the Cajuns by only 63 total yards as the offense continues to struggle. LSU has not gained more than 330 in any of its three games this season and its 325.7 ypg average is 90th in the nation. The defense has carried them for years and right now. LSU is allowing 320 ypg which is good for 46th in the country which is very average. The Bulldogs right there, allowing just 323 ypg and while the schedule has not been as difficult, it has not been that much softer than that of LSU’s. The spread offense for Mississippi St. is coming around as it seems to be executing better and better a each game passes. The passing game has not developed much but the bright spot is the rushing game, where it is averaging 221.7 ypg which is 20th best in the country. Running the ball will obviously be important again this week as controlling the time of possession is goal number one. LSU has owned this series with nine straight wins but a 10-point loss last season at Baton Rouge can inspire some confidence and add to the momentum from Saturday road victory. This is a large for a road team to be putting down and it falls into a great situation favoring the home team. Play on conference home underdogs between 10.5 and 21 points that are coming off a conference victory. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Add to that, LSU is 0-8 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons and it is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. Play Mississippi St. Bulldogs
Tony Karpinski
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Western Kentucky vs. Navy
Play: Navy -28.5
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I like Navy to roll on Saturday by a ton. This is only Western Kentuckys second year of 1-A play. Their defense gives up an average of 559 yards/game and they wont be able to stop Navy here. This is a good Navy team who played two quality opponents tough in Ohio St and Pittsburgh. Navy get a big win here and runs the score up to cruise to a 47-10 victory. Play the NAVY
SEAN MURPHY
Fresno St. @ Cincinnati
PICK: Cincinnati -16.5
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The Cincinnati Bearcats are clearly a play-on team right now, quickly out of the gates at 3-0 SU and ATS. Sure, they're laying a lot of points against a quality opponent this week, but let's not forget this is the same team that covered a 47-point spread against SE Missouri State two weeks ago.
If Fresno State's overtime loss suffered at Wisconsin two weeks ago was a body blow, last week's 51-34 setback at home against Boise State was the equivalent of a knockout punch.
The Bulldogs are battered after those back-to-back losses, and in a clear letdown spot here after opening their WAC season with a thud in a national tv game at home last Friday.
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Fresno State went 2-11 ATS a year ago and I still see them as an overvalued program. Head coach Pat Hill's mantra, any team, any time, any place may have rung true several years ago, but it carries little weight here in 2009.
The Bulldogs are going to struggle with a weak defense, and an offense lead by a first time starter, Ryan Colburn, who has thrown six touchdowns, but also six interceptions through three games. Teams are simply going to stack the line against Ryan Mathews and the Bulldogs excellent stable of running backs, and force Colburn to beat them. Cincinnati should be no exception. Note that the Bearcats are allowing just 71.7 rush yards per game on a stingy 2.1 yards per rush.
Although there have been wins by 32 and 67-point margins, Cincinnati's biggest victory of the young season came last Saturday in Corvallis. The Bearcats fell behind early, but rode a 21-point second quarter to a decisive 28-18 win over Oregon State.
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Tony Pike is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in college football. He's already thrown for over 900 yards, completing more than 71% of his passes for eight touchdowns and just two interceptions.
This is a deep Bearcats team that is ready to take the Big East by storm. With a powerful offense and stout defense, they have the makeup of a team that can cover lofty pointspreads like the one we're dealing with on Saturday.
I look for Fresno State to come out flat after the loss to rival Boise State and leading into their bye week. Cincinnati has no look-ahead to worry about with one of the worst teams in the nation, Miami-Ohio, on deck next week. Lay the points with the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati.
Steve Zukiel
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Arizona State vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -11½
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The Arizona State Sun Devils are truly overmatched here. Sure they have looked good in their first two games but so would I if I played the pansies that they played. This is also Arizona State's first trip to the deep south this decade. Georgia has had three tough teams to start the season but they move down in competition and I see this game being over very, very quickly. Take the Bulldogs here.
#1 Sports
Rutgers @ Maryland
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Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights (2-1, 0-1 Big East) got a good measure of where they stood in the Big East without Mike Teel at the trigger in a 15-47 home loss to Cincinnati to open the season. In that game, 6’2” 215 senior QB Dominic Natale threw 3 picks without a score, prompting the move to 6’5” 230 true freshman QB Tom Savage (36 of 64 for 543 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) who has started a pair of wins over Howard and Florida International…
As just one of four Division I squads to start a true freshman under center, offensive line play will be critical to Head Coach Greg Schiano’s (48-52 in 9th season) success this year and that groups play has been mixed so far. Preseason All American 6’6” 325 junior LT Anthony Davis is a legitimate future NFL player who first started as a 17-year old, 6’7” 295 senior RT Kevin Haslem has started 22 career games, and 6’4” 295 senior C Ryan Blaszczyk adds another 29 starts but this group has yielded 9 sacks already and Savage took a concussion in last week’s 23-15 win over FIU. He’s probable to go against Maryland. A decent pair of big backs will help in 6’1” 230 senior Jourdan Brooks (25 for 157 and 3 TD) and 6’0” 215 sophomore Joe Martinek (48 for 213 and TD) and they will likely be leaned upon this week. Blazing 5’8” 165 senior WR Tim Brown (14 for 349 and TD) leads the Knight’s attack downfield and the entire big East with 24.9 yards per catch but look out for 6’2” 215 true freshman WR Mohamed Sanu (15 for 158) and 6’6” 245 freshman TE DC Jefferson who has taken over the starting role from Graves and has posted grabs of 35 and 46 yards.
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The Rutgers defense (23.0 points per game) has been sharp against their last 2 overmatched opponents, holding FIU to 42 yards rushing while racking 5 team sacks but Coach Schiano is still sorting out his defensive backfield. Cornerbacks 6’0” 195 sophomore David Rowe (9 T) and 5’11” 190 senior Devin McCourtey (18 T) plus starting safeties 6’1” 205 junior Joe Lefeged (18 T, TFL, FR) and 6’2” 215 senior Zaire Kitchen (16 T) hold starting jobs but this unit has given up 255.0 yards per game through the air (6 TD, 3 INT) and backups Bing (6 T), Kivlehan (7 T), Greene (9 T, INT), and Anderson (6 T) have all seen heavy rotation. Stay tuned on that front but up front the picture is clearer. 6’3” 245 senior MLB Ryan D’Imperio (20 T, 2 ½ TFL, S, INT), 6’4” 260 senior LDE George Johnson (16 T, 3 ½ TFL, 1 ½ S, FR), and 6’4” 260 junior RDE Alex Silvestro (12 T, 2 ½ TFL, S, INT) are all proven play-makers, while pass-rush specialist DE Jonathan Freeney has subbed off the bench to chart a pair of sacks in each of the last 2 contests. Junior P Teddy Dellagana (44.2 yards per) and sophomore PK San San Te (career 15 of 21 FG, long of 50) could snatch a close game of two this season.
Maryland: The Terrapins (1-2, 0-0 ACC) start 6 freshmen – including 3 at line positions – this season, so Head Coach Ralph Friedgen (65-37 in 9th year) could see some ‘teachable moments’ (by the way, is there any expression more pompous?) coming…and he’s gotten them. A 13-52 pounding at California to open the year was expected but needing overtime to top James Madison and a 31-32 home loss to Middle Tennessee State indicate just how much improvement is needed in College Park.
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To put it bluntly, 1st-year Defensive Coordinator Don Brown has his hands full. His group has been abused for 39.7 points per game with 199.7 yards per game and 7 TD on the ground (5.2 yards per carry) and 266.0 per game and 8 TD through the air while forcing just 3 turnovers – all against the Blue Raiders. Seniors 6’4” 264 RDE Deege Galt (12 T, 1 ½ S, BLK), 6’4” 325 LDT Travis Ivey (10 T), 6’3” 255 MLB Alex Wujciak (28 T, 2 TFL), and 5’10” 185 LCB Anthony Wiseman (14 T, 2 TFL) plus 6’2” 230 junior SLB Adrian Moten (26 T, 3 TFL, 1 ½ S) provide a experienced, productive players at each rank but there are still plenty of holes where talented but young players are learning on the fly. 6’5” 310 freshman NT AJ Francis (10 T) has shown good penetration and blocked an extra point last week. 6’2” 230 freshman WLB Demetrius Hartsfield (16 T, S) has displayed speed to the ball but needs positioning and assignment work. Maryland’s biggest issues may be in their defensive backfield where the team’s top corner, Nolan Carroll, lost his season to a broken fibula against JMU. His replacement, 6’0” 185 sophomore Cameron Chism (15 T, 2 INT) has made a couple of big plays but has been roasted more often as has 6’4” 225 freshman SS Kenny Tate (14 T, 1 ½ TFL).
Offensively, the Terps have plenty dangerous players but pass protection and ball security have plagued the effort. Up front, 6’3” 300 senior Phil Costa has moved to center this season while 6’4” 290 freshman LG Bennett Fulpar and 6’7” 300 freshman RT RJ Dill man starting roles. The result has been 11 sacks and 25 tackles for loss allowed while grinding out just 3.7 yards per rush on the ground. The god news is 3rd-year starter 6’4” 220 senior QB Chris Turner (61 of 98 for 691 yards, 3 TD, 2 TD) has still managed to be effective. Backs 5’11” 200 senior Da’Rel Scott (43 for 275 and 3 TD rushing, 5 for 42 receiving) and 5’8” 220 freshman Davin Meggett (31 for 96 and TD rushing, 9 for 70 receiving) plus wideouts 6’2” 204 senior Andrew Cannon (10 for 85 and TD) and 5’11” 190 Ronnie Tyler (7 for 89) have all gotten their share through the air but the unquestioned star of the show is 6’1” 200 sophomore WR Torrey Smith. Preseason All-American honors were his after piling up 1089 return yards in 2008 and currently leads the NCAA in all-purpose yards at 249.0 per game. Almost 20 yards per catch (14 for 274 and 2 TD), over 10 yards per carry (10 for 51 and TD), and 23.5 yards per kick return – including an 81-yard TD scamper – make this kid one of the most exciting young players in the country. Preseason All-American P Travis Baltz (39.5 per) has yet to get off while true freshman PK has been respectable as 4 of 6 on field goal tries with a long of 42.
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SELECTION: Before the season, this game shaped up as a pretty compelling match up of crews that made the Bowl cut each of the last 3 seasons, but we have seen little yet to confirm either school’s potential on that magnitude in 2009. Savage looks to be a go, the Scarlet Knight defense has the edge, and an overtime win versus James Madison through 3 games doesn’t inspire confidence in the Terrapins. Take Rutgers and lay the 1½ points at Byrd Stadium Saturday afternoon.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Penn State -9.5 vs Iowa
USC -45 vs Washington State
BYU -14.5 vs Colorado State
Single Plays
Arkansas +17 vs Alabama
Michigan -21 vs Indiana
Miami, FL -2.5 vs Virginia Tech
Kansas -13.5 vs So. Miss
Arizona +2 vs Oregan State
Auburn -32 vs Ball State
TCU +2.5 vs Clemson
Florida State -14.5 vs So. Florida
Georgia -12.5 vs Arizona State
Nevada +7 vs Missouri
Tennessee -21.5 vs Ohio
Navy -28.5 vs W. Kentucky
North Texas +7 vs Middle Tennessee State
Wunderdog
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Pittsburgh at N C State
Pick: Pittsburgh +1
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North Carolina State came out of nowhere last season to turn a 2-6 start into a Bowl bid by running the table in their last four games. They covered the spread in nine of their last ten games. The expectations have followed those results into this season. They have whipped up on two cupcakes, but found the going tough at home vs. South Carolina where the Wolfpack offense generated just three points. They put up an anemic 133 yards for the game. Pittsburgh on the other hand, comes in 3-0 after an impressive win over a Navy team that is better than NC State, at least at this point of the season as Navy previously went into Ohio State and lost by just four points. The impressive part for the Panthers is that they held a Navy rushing attack, which always generates major yardage, to just 129 yards on 46 carries (2.8 ypc). The Panthers are getting great QB play from Bill Stull who has completed 70% of his passes for six TDs and just one interception. And, Dion Lewis has been sensational on the ground with 398 yards on 67 attempts getting 6 yards per carry. The problem for NC State is they are paper thin on both the offensive and defensive line where the games are ultimately won or lost. Pitt is 13-5 ATS on the road the past four seasons and NC State is on a 12-22 ATS run as a home favorite. In their last 15 games as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points, the Wolfpack are just 3-12 ATS. I like the Panthers to win this game.
Cajun Sports
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Washington U vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -7
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The “Trees” could very easily be 4-0 if not for some very questionable officiating in their trip to Wake Forest but they are 3-1 and coming off an impressive win over SJS last week. The Huskies are riding a two-game win streak after losing every game on the schedule last year with their biggest win in more than a decade coming last week over the Trojans. This is a perfect flat spot for the Huskies after that monumental upset of USC. The “Trees” are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home last seven on the board. Two CFB Systems are active for this game: Play AGAINST a road underdog of 3-7 points with less than 13 days rest off a SU win as an underdog of more than 7 points vs. an opponent off a SU win of 6-33 points. These road underdogs are 0-17 ATS and average failing to cover the spread by 13.9 points per game. Play AGAINST a road team (not a favorite of 5+ points) off a home SU win against USC vs. an opponent off an ATS win. These road teams are 0-11 ATS and average losing to the number by 10.7 points per game.
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GAME FORECAST: 2* Stanford Cardinal 31 Washington Huskies 17
Carlo Campanella
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UAB vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -15
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UAB (1-2) heads to Texas A&M (2-0) this Saturday for their second of back-to-back road games. Last Saturday, UAB lost 14-27 at Troy, while dropping to 2-13 S on the road under Head Coach Neil Calloway. While this is the first meeting between these two squads, UAB is a horrible 8-40 SU against BCS teams, including losing 10 straight by an average of 19 points per game. With that loss to Troy, UAB enters this Texas A&M battle on a 3-13 losing streak on the road against non-conference opponents. Texas A&M will be the toughest opponent UAB has faced up until this point in the season and we are laying the points with A&M at home, knowing that they are 4-0 SU & ATS against Conference USA opponents. A&M improves to 3-0 on the year and covers the spread, as we find them at 12-1 ATS as favorites of 27 points or less against a non-conference opponent coming off a double-digit loss.
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7* Play On Texas A&M
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Texas Tech at Houston Cougars
Prediction: Houston Cougars
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Houston hosts Texas Tech following their bye week, after upsetting Oklahoma State, 45-35 on September 12th. We find Houston at 16-3 at home, with all three of those losses by 3 points or less. Houston should be ready for Tech,as they're 3-0 after their bye week under Head Coach Sumlin. TEch will be playing their 2nd of back-to-back road games, after losing at Texas last week 24-34. In what appears to be a shootout, Houston QB Keenumholds the advantage over Tech,a s he has tossed 51 TDs and only 12 interceptions as the starter. We're willing to lay the point with home favorite Houston, who is now 6-0 SU at home behind Head Coach Sumlin.
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7* Play On Houston
Timothy Black
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Toledo vs. Florida Intl
Play: Florida Intl +2
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Look for Fiu to walk over the toledo defense! FIU was able to cover their spread with alabama 2 weeks ago and I see them winning this game outright!Toledo will be coming to a pumped up FIU offense!
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Miami Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Miami Florida -3
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Jacory Harris will be lighting up the field in this game. I do see miami having some trouble running the ball here with a strong VT defense but Harris will be able to stay calm and pick apart VT secondary weaknesses. Miami was able to shut down the GT running game and look for them to do this here as well.
DAVE COKIN
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UL - MONROE / FLORIDA ATLANTIC
TAKE: UL - MONROE
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It's under the radar, but one of the better games on this week's slate should be the Sun Belt clash between UL-Monroe and Florida Atlantic. These two teams have staged some real thrillers, with the largest margin in the series being a seven-point Monroe win in 2005. The other four meetings have been 17-13 Monroe, 21-19 FAU, 33-30 (OT) Monroe, and last year's 29-28 FAU victory. That game has to still be sticking the craw of the Warhawks. They blew a 21-0 lead, and then missed a mid-range FG that would have wrapped up the win. The Owls put together a late drive and threw a TD pass with just a handful of seconds remaining to pull out the win. The underdog has gotten the money in all five battles, and while FAU has excelled as conference home chalk, UL-Monroe has been almost automatic as road dogs in league play. In fact, covering as a road is an old tendency for Warhawks coach Charlie Weatherbie going back to his Navy days.
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From a fundamental standpoint, I like the road team's chances of winning the battle in the trenches. UL-Monroe has a ton of experience on both front lines, and it looks to me like the Warhawks have a good chance to win the ground game duel by a decent margin. That's always a big key for me, as I have a strong preference for underdogs with an edge in that aspect of the game.
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Given the incredibly tight series history, the revenge factor and the edge in experience and fundamentals, UL-Monroe plus the points looks like the right side to me.