Black Widow
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1* on Wisconsin -3
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Wisconsin is a mere 3-point favorite at home over Michigan State, and this is clearly a soft line with the Spartans coming off back-to-back losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. The Badgers have been dominant at home. The Badgers have won 4 of their last 5 home games vs. Michigan State. After losing to the Spartans 24-25 on the road last year, you can bet this is a big revenge spot for Wisconsin players who have not forgotten that crushing defeat. The Badgers outrushed the Spartans 281-25 in that game, which are numbers that would usually lead to a Wisconsin victory. Expect similar ground numbers in 2009, only this time around it will be enough for Wisconsin to get their payback at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Badgers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is quietly 3-0 and everyone is sleeping on this team. Take Wisconsin and lay the points.
John Martin
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1 Unit on Memphis -3
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Hard not to like Memphis at home as a field goal favorite. This team has faced a tough schedule, and thus they are 1-2. The Tigers rebounded with a nice 41-14 win over Tennessee-Martin last week to avoid falling to 0-3. Marshall is coming off an upset home win over Bowling Green, but the Thundering Herd got trounced at Virginia Tech 10-52 in their only road game this season. Clearly, Memphis wants this game more and they'll go out and get it. The Tigers suffered a 16-17 loss at Marshall last year, and these returning players have not forgotten it. It was a game they should have won, making 26 first downs to Marshall's 16. A little home cookin' is all the Tigers need to get some payback this year. Marshall is 11-24 ATS as a road underdog since 1992. Marshall is 17-38-2 ATS in their last 57 road games overall. The Thundering Herd are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Cash in with Memphis as the favorite.
Dave Busk
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Take Wyoming (+5) over UNLV
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The Cowboy’s announced that true freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels will be the starting quarterback after splitting time with junior college transfer Robert Benjamin. Carta-Samuels has seen time in all three games and has yet to turn the ball over, and the offense should have more of a flow to it with just one quarterback now working with new head coach and former Missouri offense coordinator Dave Christensen. UNLV makes a tough trip to Wyoming off a big win over Hawaii and with a big rivalry game on deck at Nevada. I think this is the right move for Wyoming naming one starter and with 15 starters back from a team that lost 22-14 at UNLV last year as six and a half point underdog and now find themselves a five-point home pup has me biting here on the doggie.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Navy -28 over Western Kentucky
Don't look now, but the Hill Toppers have serious props in their skill set and should give the Middies all they can handle for at least the first-half. Navy has been a huge letdown for their backers in the early going losing at Ohio State and Pittsburgh. At 1-2, they have passed their most difficult part of the schedule with the exception of Notre Dame on November 7th. Versus the spread Navy is 2-1 with covers versus Ohio State and Louisiana Tech. Remember the Pitt battle was a major revenge game for the Middies, but they failed miserably in the second-half in key down and distance situations. Currently, Navy ranks 80th offensively in the country. Simply, defenses stack the line of scrimmage and work on their offensive line to create gaps for the linebacker groups. No doubt the kids from Annapolis have a bright future, but they must incorporate a more diversified game plan as the Ohio State and Pitt games would indicate. Western Kentucky brought back only 4 starters on defense and now travel to face one angry football team. Navy 59 Western Kentucky 21
Larry Ness
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Ball State @ Auburn
PICK: Auburn
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Ball State was 12-0 and averaging 37.7 PPG when it met Buffalo in the MAC title game last year. The Cardinals were upset 42-24 in that game as two-TD favorites and then got routed 45-13 by Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl. Ball State opened the 2009 season with a new head coach (Stan Parrish), a new QB in Kelly Page and had to replace three starters on the OL. The results so far are three straight losses to open the new season with the Cards averaging a puny 14.3 PPG. Page is no Nate Davis (64.3% / 3599 yards / 26-8 ratio in 2008) at QB, completing just 45.7 percent for an average of only 136.0 YPG with a 2-5 ratio. RB Lewis had 1,736 yards last year (5.4 YPC / 22 TDs) but with that revamped OL and little or no passing attack to complement his running, has run for a total of just 141 yards (47 per game) and one TD (3.4 YPC). The Cardinals catch Auburn between a West Va/Tennessee 'sandwich' but this year's Tigers have been awesome so far in 2009. The Tigers were just 5-7 last year and Tuberville resigned after the team's 36-0 season-ending loss to Alabama. Auburn hired its former DC Gene Chizik to take over. Chizik had just gone 5-19 in two years at Iowa St but the school liked him. Maybe just as importantly, Chizik brought in Gus Malzahn as his OC, who the last two years had directed Tulsa's offense to an average of just over 44 PPG and almost 560 YPG. So far, so good in 2009. The Tigers are 3-0 SU and ATS, averaging 42.3 PPG and 515.0 YPG. Starting QB Todd is averaging 241.7 YPG through the air (6 TDs / 1 INT) and backup QB Burns has four rushing TDs and one TD pass. The running game is averaging 263.7 YPG (5.2 YPC) with senior Tate contributing 349 yards (5.9 YPC) and freshman McCalebb adding 282 yards (6.1 YPC). Well-conditioned Auburn has worn down all three opponents this year, outscoring them by a combined 79-20 in the second halves so far in 2009. Back in 2005, a Ball State team which would finish 4-7 visited "The Plains" and lost to Auburn, 63-3. It margin may not be quite that bad this year but then again, maybe it will? Lay it.
Freddy Wills
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Texas Tech vs. Houston U
Take Texas Tech pk
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The story here is a C-USA team vs. a Big 12 team. Houston already proved this year it can take down a Big 12 opponent and match them with points. Houston took down Oklahoma State on the road 45-35 and now they are getting a lot of credit in what looks like a line that is way off. No doubt I give it up to Houston and QB Case Keenum, but I think this will be a bigger challenge for them this week, but that is why you schedule the games so that you can get quality wins over big conference opponents. For Houston they did not play last week and although they had extra time to prepare they also will most likely come out rusty and that will be huge at home when Texas Tech scores first and quiets the crowd. For Texas Tech it seems as though their defense has vastly improved as they haven't allowed a 1st half TD on defense. Last week they played Texas where many picked Texas to just beat up on Tech for the Crabtree play last year that forced Texas out of the National Championship game. With all that motivation and playing at home in front of the largest crowd to ever watch a football game in Texas Texas only won by 10 (34-24). Tech was missing a few key players on the defensive line and still gave McCoy troubles getting 2 picks off a couple of deflections. On the other side of the ball they lost Grahm Harrel and Crabtree to the NFL, but they have what I think is a better QB in Taylor Potts. Remember the name I think by the end of the year you will hear a lot about him. Going in many said he had more talent than Harrel and it may just be true as he's got 1281 yards with a 69.5% completion, 12 TD's 4INT's. Look for Tech to get some stops and put up enough to win this game by 10+.
Game Time Sports Advisors
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Ball State vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -32.5
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Tigers will run roughshod over this Ball State bunch. Ball State can't generate any offense and is clearly in rebuilding mode. Even with Tennessee on deck, Auburn should cover this number with relative ease. Auburn reserves will be pumped to be getting a lot of action and the won't take their foot off the throttle.
David Malinsky
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Wake Forest @ Boston College
PICK: Wake Forest +1.5
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After we cashed an easy 6* against a troubled Boston College team with Clemson last week are we going to come right back again with many of the same notions this Saturday? Of course, especially now that the markets have taken such a limited Eagle offense to -1.5 for this one.
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B.C. has problems galore, which is what can happen when you are under your third head coach in as many seasons, but nowhere is the issue as serious as the most important position on the field, the QB spot. We broke it down in detail last week, as Frank Spaziani had four inexperienced players vying for the job in fall practice, and all four played in the first two games. You know what happens, of course – when that many players are sharing the snaps in practice and games it means that no one gets enough time with the first team offense to establish any rhythm or chemistry, while at the same time the coaching staff can not tweak the offense around the particular skills of the #1 guy, since there is not a #1 guy.
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Fast forward to the first real challenge at Clemson last week and what did we see? A complete disaster. In an offensive performance for the ages, literally, B.C. was held to four first downs and 54 yards of total offense. Justin Tuggle got the start and was awful, going 4-20 with three interceptions, and while Davis Shinskie was the only reserve that played, he fumbled on both of his possessions, although at least the Eagles recovered one of them. That duo was so uninspiring that Spaziani has freshmen Mike Mascovetra back in the mix at practice this week, and the coach is bluntly honest about what is going on - ”It’s an ongoing project over there, and with a capital P. We’re going to have to evaluate where we go and how we do it … but it’s a project, we have to coach our way through it.”
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Rarely do we ever hear a coach say something like that when his team is favored to win a game, but the marketplace has not recognized where Spaziani’s team rates right now. And it is that QB battle that ultimately decides this outcome, with Wake Forest bringing savvy veteran Riley Skinner at the position. This will be Skinner’s 41st game in a Deacon uniform, and note that in that span he has led the team to outright A.C.C. road wins at Florida State (twice), N. C. State, North Carolina, Maryland, and Duke, and non-conference wins at Connecticut, Mississippi, Navy, Vanderbilt and Baylor. And while Jim Grobe has been better than a 60 percent play as an underdog since taken over the Wake Forest program, note that elevates to 11-3 in that role in the 3+ seasons with Skinner in charge of the offense. It is the combination of the tactical ability of this particular coach to win close games, and Skinner to not make the kind of mistakes that gives anything away, that makes the Deacons a standout in this pointspread range.
Dennis Macklin
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Fresno State vs. Cincinnati U
Play: Cincinnati U -16
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The Bearcats are making BCS noise and despite getting hit hard by graduation, are much better than originally thought. One of the reasons is that this team is as fast as any team in the country and that includes the SEC schools. The defense is giving up just 69 ypg on the ground and that includes shutting down Oregon State's Rodgers Boys last week. Tony Pike is a veteran who manages a game well and can make plays. Fresno has had it's heart ripped out twice in two weeks, losing in OT at Wisconsin leaving guts on the field, then getting blown out at home by Boise in front of national TV audience. More travel and looking down the barrel of a season circling the drain, this one has blowout written all over it, lay the points with Cincinnati.
Jeff Allen
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Texas Tech vs. Houston U
Play: Over 73.
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The Red Raiders played some pretty good defense against Texas last week and was still touched up for 34 points. War with Longhorns will have softened TT up. Houston has already shown they can give the best of the Big 12 (Oklahoma State !!!) all they want and more. Both teams fast an with excellent schemes. This is a shootout that flies over the total.
John Anthony
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Army vs. Iowa State
Play: Army +10
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It hasn't taken long for ex-Cal Poly coach Rich Elleson to make the Cadets competitive and he's doing it with the option and a tenacious sure tackling defense. Army is what it is but they had Duke down and out and should be 3-0. Iowa State is not much and have trouble stopping the run which will not be an asset this week. Army is 5-1 as away dog in L6 and talking about a bowl. John Anthony calls a for an Army straight up win over the Cyclones.
Jeff Scott Sports
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5 UNIT PLAYS
Totals Play Of The Month
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Miami/ Virginia Tech Under 47
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Since 2003 this series has averaged just 35.5 ppg. I consider the Canes the best team in the ACC and not just because of their high powered offenes, but also cause this defense is now rounding into form, especially after holding a strong Tech Offense to just 228 total yards last week. Defense has always been a staple of the techsters and even though they have struggled abit yard wise they have still allowed just 19.7 ppg on the year. They do come in ranked 5th in pass efficiency, allowing just 164 ypg on 45.2% completions. Thier problem has been more vs the run this year, but Miami is more of a passing team. Still look for the Canes to test that run defense enough to keep the clock moving, while Tech will rely more on the run as they look to keep the ball away from that high powered offense and shorten the game. I see this game finishing in the 30's.
Teaser Of The Month
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3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Fresno State +27, Boston College +8.5 & Georgia -1.5
4 UNIT PLAY
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Fresno State +17 over CINCINNATI
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2 Weeks ago the Bulldogs were 9 point dogs at Wisconsin, so your telling me that the Bearcats are over a TD better than the Badgers. I don't think so. Fresno did nearly win that game and they are 7-7 in their last 14 BCS road games with for of those 7 losses being by 9 total points. Pat hill lives for these games as evidenced by his 15-3 ATS mark as non-conf road dogs of 5 or more. Cincy is a very good team, but frenso has more than enough abilty to keep this one close.
3 UNIT PLAYS
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BYU -16 over Colorado State
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What a bad spot the Rams are in here after BYU is off their worst home loss since '04. CSU is of to a solid 3-0 start, but havent played anyone with the caliber offense of the Cougars yet. They are off a 35-20 win over a good Nevada team, but were aided by 5 Wolfpack turnovers and were outgained by 51 yards in the contest. BYU was shreded BYU the Noles offense last week and in last years contest they did allow 42 points to these Rams so I look for an angry bunch of BYU defenders to come up big here, while the offense drops a ton of points on the Rams. BYU by 24+.
BOSTON COLLEGE -1.5 over Wake Forest
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The Eagles were held to just 54 total yards last week vs Clemson, so you can expect a more spirited effort from this offense. This is wakes 1st roda game of the year and they are 5-15 SU in road openers s/89. BC by a TD here.
MICHIGAN -20 ver Indiana
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The Hosiers are just 7-20 ATS in Big 10 road games. Michigan is 30-1 SU in this series and has won the last 5 vs Indiana by 30 ppg. Michigan is on a mission this year, after last years disaster and will take great pleasure in pounding opponents that they should. Indiana is off a good win at Akron, but were facing a team that had suspended their QB a day before the game and the backup had 4 INT's. Michigan again by 30+ here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Miami -3 over VA TECH
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I have been saying it since the start of the year, the Canes are best team in the ACC this year and they will take another step towards proving it with a big win in Blacksburg.
CLEMSON -3 over TCU
Tigers may be second best in ACC and will take care of non-BCS Forned Frogs here, by at least 7 points.
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UNLV/ Wyoming Under 45.5
California -5.5 over OREGON
1 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego State +16.5 over AIR FORCE
Notre Dame/ Purdue Under 60.5
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Army +9.5 over IOWA STATE
Matty B Sports
San Diego State vs. Air Force
Play: San Diego St +16½
San Diego St’s football program has been floundering for the past decade; they haven’t had a winning season since 1998. But there was a lot of optimism heading into this year as the coaching staff got a major overhaul with some well regarded coaches stepping in. Brady Hoke took over the head coach’s spot after leading Ball St to a perfect 12-0 record last year. And Hoke may have the best pair of coordinators in college football with Al Borges calling the offense and Rocky Long running the defense. These three are no strangers as they were all part of the UCLA staff back in 1997. Borges was fantastic while at Auburn where his team led the SEC in scoring in back-to-back years. Long was the head coach at New Mexico for the past 11 seasons and his defenses were always rock solid, especially against the run. And Long’s presence here is a major key to this selection.
You all know that Air Force loves to run the football with their triple option attack. But over the past two years, head coach Troy Calhoun has been trying to mix in more of a balanced offense. When he was first hired, Calhoun said he was going to incorporate more passing and run less option, but after little success, the Falcons are back to 99% option football. And here’s where Rocky Long comes into play. Air Force ran roughshod on San Diego St last year gaining 401 yards on 5.2 yards per rush; good for their second best rushing output of the season. But Rocky Long’s New Mexico team held the Falcons to only 227 yards on just 3.3 yards per rush. So Long’s knowledge of how to stop Air Force’s running game is a huge underlying factor in this game. On top of that, Air Force lost starting quarterback Tim Jefferson last week to a sprained right ankle. His return is listed as a “few days” or a “few weeks” according to Calhoun. If Jefferson is out, Connor Dietz will be making his first collegiate start and we give Rocky Long the edge over the youngster.
The Aztecs lost at mighty Idaho last week. That’s really not an encouraging sign, but one play turned that game around. After quarterback Ryan Lindley marched the offense right down the field on their opening drive, he threw an interception that was returned 74 yards for an Idaho touchdown. After that, Lindley left the game after jamming his index finger only to return when the score was 20-10 Idaho. Let’s just draw a line through that game because of the turnover and injury issues. Coming into this season, San Diego St was a team I was looking to play-on in conference play because of the coaching staff. Long knows the Mountain West inside-out, and I’ve always respected the work of Al Borges. So we’re going to take the big points with San Diego St in their conference opener. Play San Diego St plus the points.
Tony George
Colorado State vs. BYU
Play: Colorado State +17
Prefer to take upstart Golden Rams here as BYU beat up and beat down after getting pummeled as a 7 point favorite last week to Florida State on national TV. Hard to recover against a loss like that and take on a potent Ram attack led by capable QB Stucker. Colorado State comes in here with nothing to lose and a 3-0 record beating Colorado and Nevada already and they have plenty of confidence. The Rams are allowing just 20 ppg and have a decent pass rush and some solid LBs as well. BYU clearly the better team but a soft spot for the Cougs after last weeks debacle, and if they drop their guard I this one, Colorado State could make a real game of it. The Rams avenging a last second loss last year 45-42 at home, I expect this to be a well contested game. Over 3 scores is too many, I suggest grabbing the points as this lined opened up at 14.5 and has climbed all week providing some added value for Rams backers, and I am one of them!
Play on Colorado State
Rob Vinciletti
Akron vs. Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan-16.5
Today we back a C.Michigan team that applies to a solid 84% system that plays on home favorites from -2 to -33 that scored 40 or more points in a home shut out win vs an opponent off a loss. The Chippewas come into this one off a 48-0 destruction of Alcorn.St. Today they get the Akron Zips at home off a bad home favored loss to Indiana 38-21. Akron is just 1-6 against the spread as road dogs taking on an opponent off a win. They have lost 5 of the last 6 in this series including the last 3 ats.C.Michigan is 9-1 ats in conference openers and 8-2 ats home off a non conference game.Look for a big decisive win here for Central Michigan.