Tom Freese
Texas Tech at Houston Cougars
Prediction: Texas Tech
Texas Tech 38-14 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. teams with a winning home record. The Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 September games and they are 6-1-1 ATS vs. Conference USA teams. Houston is 17-35 ATS off an ATS win and they are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off a straight up win. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS after gaining over 450 yards in their last game. PLAY ON TEXAS TECH +
TEDDY COVERS
Indiana @ Michigan
PICK: Under 54.5
The total in Ann Arbor has been bet up from the opener, despite key offensive line injuries for both teams and a pair of under-rated defenses in play. That gives us plenty of value to bet the Under on Saturday as the Wolverines and Hoosiers collide in their first Big 10 game of the young season.
Michigan’s offensive line is a mess right now. Starting center David Molk is out. Senior guard David Moosman missed last week’s game, and he’ll be playing out of position at center this week. Versatile veteran Tim McAvoy is battling knee troubles. With Tate Forcier coming off a 7-13 for 68 yard performance against Eastern Michigan last week, we can project some offensive woes for the Wolverines here.
Indiana has a trio of banged up offensive linemen as well. Alex Perry is not going to play, and key cogs Cody Faulkner and James Brewer are both less than 100% with shoulder and ankle injuries respectively. Indiana scored less than ten points per game on the Big 10 road last year, and will be hard pressed to score points in bunches against the ultra-athletic Michigan defense. 2* Take the Under.
Jim Feist
Illinois vs. Ohio State
Play: Illinois +14
This is a huge number to cover for a running team like Ohio State that lost its top defensive players from 2008. Illinois has had two weeks to prepare, which has helped them get healthy. Mobile senior QB Juice Williams leads the offense along with RB Jason Ford. Ohio State (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) prefers to run behind sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor (4 TD, 3 picks). They have a lot of rebuilding to do on defense, with talent up front while retooling the LB corps. They didn’t look good in a 31-27 win over Navy, then blew it late against USC, a tough 18-15 defeat. Illinois is 4-1 ATS the last 5 at the Horseshoe. Play Illinois.
Marc Lawrence College
Play On: NC State
The Wolfpack play host to the Panthers in a non-conference clash at Carter-Finley Stadium Saturday afternoon in this the 4th of a four-game season opening home stand. Home teams in this situation are 10-2-1 ATS when playing off a win of more than 28 points against a winning opponent that won 10 or fewer games last year. Furthermore, NC State head coach Tom O'Brien is an impressive 15-2 ATS in his college career off a win of eight or more points against an opponent off a SU and ATS win. With Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt just 1-5 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins against a foe off a win and the home team in this series 3-0 ATS, look for the Pack to improve on those numbers here this afternoon.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Illinois (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (13) Ohio State (2-1 SU and ATS)
It’s the Big Ten opener for the Illini and the Buckeyes who square off inside the Horseshoe at Columbus, the site of Illinois’ 2007 upset of then-top-ranked Ohio State.
After a season-opening 37-9 loss to regional rival Missouri as 6½-point favorites, the Illini blew out Illinois State 45-17 in Week 2 and took last week off to get ready for this one. QB Juice Williams is expected back in the lineup after straining his quadriceps against Illinois State. In his career, Williams has thrown six TD passes and just one INT against Ohio State, while adding 118 rushing yards on 25 carries.
After falling 18-15 at home to Southern Cal as a seven-point underdog, Ohio State found its offense against Toledo a week ago at Cleveland Browns Stadium, racking up 522 yards in a 38-0 win, cashing as a 22-point chalk. Sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor threw for a career-high 262 yards and three TDs and rushed for 110 yards and another score.
Illinois has lost 14 of its last 15 Big Ten openers and has dropped four straight to ranked opponents since beating the No. 1 Buckeyes 28-21 in Columbus as a 15½-point ‘dog in November 2007. Ohio State has won four of the last five SU in this series (2-3 ATS), but the Illini are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Horseshoe.
Illinois is on ATS slides of 0-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-5 on the road and 10-23 after an ATS loss, but the Illini have cashed in six straight Big Ten road games when catching points dating to 2006.
Ohio State coach Jim Tressel has led the Buckeyes to a 6-1 ATS mark dating back to last season and 22-8 ATS record in Big Ten contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-7 at home, 1-6 as a home favorite and 2-6 in September.
Illinois has topped the total in seven of 11 conference games, six straight as a ‘dog and four of seven after an ATS loss, however the Illini 4-1-2 “under” in their last seven overall. The Buckeyes have gone over the total in five of six as a favorite and four of five Big Ten contests. In this series, the “over” has cashed in four of the last five in Columbus.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) TCU (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Clemson (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The 15th-ranked Horned Frogs are hoping to set themselves up as a BCS buster when they travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson in a non-conference matchup.
TCU saw fellow Mountain West Conference teams Utah and BYU fall last week in non-leage action, eliminating those squads from BCS contention, but the Horned Frogs have made some noise with two easy wins to open the season, including a 30-14 rout at Virginia as an 11-point favorite on Sept. 12. Coach Gary Patterson’s squad has topped the 200-yard rushing mark in both games this season, including 286 in last week’s 56-21 home rout of Texas State in a non-lined game.
After allowing 301 rushing yards in a 30-27 loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 10 (covering as a five-point road underdog), the Tigers defense came to play last week in limiting Boston College to 29 rushing yards in a 25-7 ACC win as nine-point home favorites. Richard Jackson kicked a school record-tying six field goals, and tailback C.J. Spiller had a 77-yard punt return for a TD as part of 219 all-purpose yards before leaving with a foot injury.
TCU is on positive ATS streaks of 13-5 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action and 7-3-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tigers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, but otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 overall, 5-1 as a favorite, 4-0 at home and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
TCU has topped the total in five of seven overall and four of five in September. However, it’s been nothing but “unders” for Clemson, including 12-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 11-2 as a favorite and 7-2 as a home favorite.
This is the first matchup between these two schools since Clemson got a 3-0 win in Death Valley back in 1965.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) LSU (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at Mississippi State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)
The Tigers head to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., for an SEC showdown with Mississippi State in the first of a tough three-game stretch for LSU that includes a visit to Georgia and a home game against top-ranked Florida.
LSU has opened the season with three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 31-3 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette last weekend, narrowly covering as a 27-point chalk. Sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson threw for just 165 yards with two TDs and one INT. On the opposite side of the ball, the Tigers’ defense forced three turnovers against the Ragin’ Cajuns and it hasn’t allowed a TD in six quarters.
Mississippi State scored a 15-3 SEC upset victory last weekend at Vanderbilt as an 8½-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs held Vandy to just 157 total yards, including 33 rushing. The QB tandem of senior Tyson Lee and sophomore Chris Relf worked well last weekend with Lee throwing for 216 yards and a TD and running for a 22-yard score to seal the win. Relf has run for 178 yards this season and thrown for 167 with three TDs and two INTs.
The Tigers beaten Mississippi State nine straight times dating to 1999, including last year’s 34-24 victory, but they failed as 24-point home favorites. Still, LSU is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 7-0 ATS in the last seven in Starkville. The last time the Tigers visited Starkville they blanked the ‘Dogs 45-0 as 19-point favorites in 2007.
LSU is just 2-8 ATS dating back to last season and is on further pointspread slides of 7-20-1 in SEC contests, 2-6 in September games, 1-6 as a favorite and 2-5 against teams with winning records.
First-year coach Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 7-3 in September and 5-0 as a home ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 0-4 against teams with winning records and 2-5 in SEC contests.
LSU is on several “over” runs, including 7-2 on the road, 12-4 in SEC games, 6-1 as a road favorite and 4-0 following an ATS win. On the other side, it’s mostly “unders” for Mississippi State, including 13-6 overall, 6-2 at home, 6-2 in SEC action, 8-2 after an ATS win and 4-1 as a home pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in each of the last five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU and OVER
Arkansas (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (3) Alabama (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Alabama goes after its fourth straight double-digit win to begin the season when it hosts the Razorbacks in an SEC West clash.
Arkansas jumped out to a 21-10 lead against Georgia last week, but a series of bad penalties and defensive mistakes allowed the Bulldogs to get back in the game and the Razorbacks fell 52-41 as a 2½-point home favorite. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett had a record-setting night (480 yards, 5 TDs, no INTs), but his running game contributed just 77 yards and the Hogs’ defense surrendered 530 yards.
Alabama followed up an impressive 34-24 season-opening victory over Virginia Tech in Atlanta with back-to-back blowout home wins over Sun Belt Conference pushovers Florida International (40-14 as a 33½-point favorite) and North Texas (53-7 as a 39½-point chalk). Take away a 31-20 loss to Florida in last year’s SEC Championship game followed by a 31-17 Sugar Bowl loss to undefeated Utah, and the Crimson Tide have won 15 consecutive regular-season games since the start of 2008.
Both these teams field explosive offenses, with Arkansas putting up 44.5 points and 538 yards through three games and Alabama netting 42.3 points and 512.7 yards per outing. The Tide (15 ppg, 185.3 ypg) rate a big edge defensively over the Razorbacks (31 ppg, 367.5 ypg).
The Crimson Tide went to Arkansas last year and pummeled the Razorbacks 49-14 as an eight-point road chalk. Alabama has won two in a row and three of four in this rivalry, but Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Also, the visitor has cashed in each of the last four meetings and six of the last seven, and the Hogs have covered the number in each of their last three trips to Tuscaloosa.
The Razorbacks are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 as an underdog, 14-6 as a double-digit pup, 7-3 when catching points in SEC road games and 4-1 versus winning teams. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight lined September contests.
Alabama has won 17 straight SEC openers, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Nick Saban’s squad also sports ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in SEC play, 5-1 in September and 4-1 as a double-digit chalk. However, the Tide are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 SEC home games.
Arkansas carries “over” trends of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 in SEC action and 9-0 in September. The over is also 4-0 in Alabama’s last four overall, 4-0 in its last four home contests and 6-0 in its last six in September. Lastly, the past three Arkansas-Alabama tussles have hurdled the posted total, and the over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings (4-1 in Tuscaloosa).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER
(1) Florida (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Kentucky (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
After a somewhat lackluster performance against hated Tennessee in their SEC opener, the top-ranked Gators now hit the road for the first time this year when they battle unbeaten Kentucky.
Florida went off as a 30-point favorite against the Volunteers last week, but never threatened to cover that number in a 23-13 victory. The Gators, who spanked their first two opponents (Charleston Southern and Troy) by a combined score of 118-9, were held to just 323 total yards (208 rushing) and QB Tim Tebow was a pedestrian 14-for-19 for 115 yards with one INT and one lost fumble. However, the defense limited Tennessee’s inept offense to 210 yards.
Florida owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 in a row, all by double digits, but it had a 10-0 ATS run halted with last week’s non-cover against Tennessee.
The Wildcats followed up a 42-0 rout of Miami (Ohio) as a 15-point road favorite with last week’s 31-27 come-from-behind win over instate rival Louisville, falling way short as a 13½-point home favorite. Kentucky got outgained (378-346) in the win and committed three turnovers, yet still won its third in a row going back to last year’s six-point upset win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl.
The Gators have won 22 straight meetings with Kentucky, including last year’s 63-5 thrashing as a 25-point home chalk. Florida has cashed in the last two meetings after Kentucky went on a 5-0 ATS spree in this rivalry from 2002-2006, all as a double-digit favorite.
In addition to its 10-1 ATS roll overall, Florida is on further pointspread tears of 20-7 as a favorite, 8-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 as a double-digit favorite, 7-1 in SEC action and 16-5 against teams with a winning record. However, the Gators have failed to cash in five of seven in September, and they’re 0-7 ATS the last seven years the week after facing Tennessee.
Kentucky is on ATS runs of 10-4 as a home underdog, 19-7 in September, 4-1 as a double-digit ‘dog and 4-0 when catching more than 10 points at home. However, the ‘Cats are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 at home overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC home games.
Florida carries “over” trends of 7-3 overall, 11-4 in conference play, 5-1 as a favorite of 10 points or more and 20-8 when playing on grass. Similarly, Kentucky is on “over” streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a home pup. Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arizona State (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at (21) Georgia (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
Arizona State treks to Athens, Ga., with redemption in mind when it meets up with the Bulldogs in a non-conference matchup for the second straight year.
The Sun Devils haven’t been tested in their first two games against inferior foes Idaho State (50-3 home win in a non-lined game) and Louisiana-Monroe (38-14 as a 21-point home chalk). Going back to last November, ASU is on a 5-1 SU run (3-2 ATS in lined contests), but four of those five wins came at home.
Georgia climbed out of an early 21-10 hole at SEC rival Arkansas last Saturday and earned a 52-41 victory as a 2½-point road pup. QB Joe Cox threw for 375 yards and five TD passes (one INT) as the Dawgs gained 530 total yards and overcame three turnovers to win. Since a 24-10 season-opening loss at Oklahoma State, the Bulldogs have scored 91 points in their last two games (Arkansas and South Carolina), but the defense has yielded 78.
The Bulldogs went to Tempe, Ariz., 53 weeks ago as the top-ranked team in the country and they pummeled Arizona State 27-10, easily covering as a seven-point road chalk.
The Sun Devils went 1-4 SU on the road last year (all in Pac-10 action), with the lone win coming against winless Washington 39-19 as a 13-point favorite. However, including that blowout victory, ASU did cash in three of its last four away from home in 2008, and it is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 lined September games. Otherwise, though, the Sun Devils are in ATS funks of 6-11 overall, 1-4 in non-conference play and 2-8 as an underdog.
Georgia is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 non-league games, but despite last week’s cover at Arkansas, Mark Richt’s squad is still in ATS ruts of 3-9 overall, 1-5 at home (all as a favorite) and 1-7 anywhere when laying points.
ASU carries nothing put “under” trends into this game, including 19-8 overall, 9-1 on the highway, 7-2 in non-league action, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-0-2 as a double-digit pup. The under is also 24-10 in Georgia’s last 34 in September, and last year’s meeting between these schools stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER
(6) California (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at Oregon (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The marquee matchup of the week in Pac-10 action comes from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., where the Ducks host sixth-ranked Cal and Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best.
Best rushed for 135 yards and scored all five touchdowns at Minnesota last week as Cal fended of the feisty Gophers 35-21, barely covering as a 13½-point road favorite. Best is averaging 137 rushing yards per game (7.8 per carry) and has eight touchdowns, with the Bears netting 48.7 points and 488 total yards per game in jumping out to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years.
Oregon followed up a narrow 38-36 home win (non-cover) over Purdue with last week’s 31-24 victory over Utah as a five-point home favorite, cashing for the first time this season while snapping the Utes’ 16-game winning streak (the longest in the nation). The Ducks won despite committing four turnovers (three lost fumbles) and despite another terrible passing day by QB Jeremiah Masoli (4-for-16, 95 yards, no TD passes). Threw three games, Masoli is completing just 45.3 percent of his throws for a total of 379 yards with no TDs and three INTs.
Cal beat Oregon 26-16 as a 2½-point home favorite in last year’s sloppy game, which was played in a heavy rainstorm that helped contribute to eight turnovers. The Bears have won and covered three in a row in this rivalry, including a 31-24 upset as a 6½-point favorite in 2007 that ended Cal’s seven-game losing skid at Autzen Stadium, with the Bears forcing four turnovers in that win. The host is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), and the chalk has cashed in three of the last four.
Although it narrowly got the cash at Minnesota, Cal remains in ATS funks of 4-10 on the highway and 3-8 as a road favorite since 2006. On the positive side, the Bears are on pointspread surges of 5-1 overall, 7-1 as a favorite, 10-1 on artificial turf, 4-0 in September and 17-4 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Ducks are on ATS runs of 4-1 against winning teams, 4-0 after a SU win and 8-3 as a home pup.
Six of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed under the total, including four in a row at Autzen. However, the over is on streaks of 5-2 for Oregon overall, 6-0-1 for Oregon at home, 4-1 for Oregon in Pac-10 play, 18-5-2 for Oregon in September, 6-1 for Cal overall, 5-1 for Cal on the road, 5-2 for Cal in the Pac-10 and 5-1 for Cal in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) North Carolina (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Georgia Tech (2-1, 0-2 ATS)
Georgia Tech looks to bounce back from a humbling loss at Miami, Fla., when it returns home to face the 22nd-ranked Tar Heels in an ACC Coastal Division clash at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
One year after gashing Miami for 472 rushing yards in a 41-23 blowout home win, the Yellow Jackets were stymied by the Hurricanes last Thursday in South Beach, getting outgained 454-228 overall and 184-95 on the ground en route to a 33-17 loss as a 4½-point road underdog. Georgia Tech, which tumbled out of the Top 25 with the defeat, is just 5-4 SU in its last nine games (including last year’s 21-point loss at North Carolina), and it has failed to cover in three straight lined outings.
North Carolina followed up a lucky, last-minute 12-10 win at Connecticut with last week’s 31-17 rout of East Carolina, covering as an 8½-point home favorite. The Tar Heels, who are 3-0 for the first time since starting 8-0 in 1997, dominated the contest from a yardage perspective, finishing with 433 yards (148 rushing) while limiting the Pirates to 247 total yards (55 rushing).
North Carolina snapped a three-game losing skid to Georgia Tech with last November’s 28-7 victory as a 5½-point home favorite, winning despite getting outgained 423-314. The Tar Heels had also cashed in the previous four meetings, all as an underdog, including going 2-0 ATS in their last two visits to Atlanta.
North Carolina is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under coach Butch Davis, including 3-0 ATS last season. Additionally, the Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog of three points or less, including 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road pup in that price range.
Since coach Paul Johnson took over the program prior to the start of the 2008 season, the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS following an outright loss and 3-1 ATS as a home chalk. However, Georgia Tech is in pointspread slumps of 2-5-1 overall, 3-7-1 at home, 1-4-1 in ACC action, 3-8-2 as a home chalk and 1-6-1 when laying three points or less.
The over is 4-1 in UNC’s last five overall, 5-0 in its last five as an underdog, 5-0 in Ga-Tech’s last five after a SU defeat, 7-3 in Ga-Tech’s last 10 at home and 4-0 in the last four series meetings between these schools in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
(24) Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) at Stanford (2-1 SU and ATS)
Fresh off their monster upset victory over USC, the Huskies now try to guard against a letdown when they travel down the west coast for a Pac-10 meeting with Stanford.
Washington got a 25-yard field goal from Erik Folk with three seconds remaining last Saturday to stun the Trojans 16-13 as a 19½-point home underdog. The Huskies, who snapped a 15-game losing skid the previous week with a home win over lowly Idaho, prevailed despite getting outgained 369-293, including 250-56 on the ground. However, they forced three turnovers and committed none, and the defense didn’t permit USC to convert a single third-down opportunity (0-for-10).
The Cardinal rebounded from a disappointing, last-second 24-17 loss at Wake Forest with an emphatic 42-17 victory over San Jose State last week, cashing as an 18-point home chalk. Stanford is averaging 32.7 ppg and has been equally successful on the ground (204.7 rushing ypg) and through the air (213.3 passing ypg). QB Andrew Luck is completing 62.3 percent of his throws for 639 yards, four TDs and two INTs.
The visitor has owned this rivalry lately, going 3-0 SU and ATS, including the Cardinal’s 35-28 win at Washington as a three-point underdog exactly one year ago. The ‘dog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the visitor is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.
Despite a 2-1 ATS start to this season, the Huskies remain on a bevy of ATS declines, including 27-55-4 overall, 0-5 on the road, 23-53-2 in Pac-10 play, 7-20 after a spread-cover, 2-8 as an underdog (but 2-0 this year) and 1-6 versus teams with a winning record. Conversely, Stanford is on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in September, 4-1 in conference and 9-2-1 as a home chalk. Also, the Cardinal have cashed in seven straight games at Stanford Stadium.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Washington in September, 6-0 for Washington after a spread-cover, 6-2-1 for Washington as a road underdog and 5-2 for Stanford overall. However, the under is 40-18-1 in the Cardinal’s last 59 Pac-10 games and 5-2 in their last seven as a favorite, while four of the last five clashes in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD
(9) Miami, Fla. (2-0 SU and ATS) at (11) Virginia Tech (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
Having vaulted back into the Top 10 following two impressive ACC victories, Miami now heads to Blacksburg for another difficult test against the 11th-ranked Hokies in a Coastal Division showdown.
Ten days after hanging on for a 38-34 win at Florida State on Labor Day, the Hurricanes welcomed Georgia Tech to South Beach on Thursday and pummeled the Yellow Jackets 33-17 as a 4½-point home favorite. After getting torched for 472 rushing yards in an 18-point loss at Georgia Tech last year, the Hurricanes defense got some revenge, limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 228 total yards (95 rushing). Miami has opened the season with consecutive wins over ranked opponents for the first time since 1988.
Miami QB Jacory Harris had another outstanding performance versus Ga-Tech, going 20-for-25 for 270 yards with three TDs and no picks. For the season, Harris is completing 69.5 percent of his throws for 656 yards with five TDs and two INTs.
Virginia Tech got a miracle 16-15 victory over Nebraska in a non-conference home game a week ago, as Tyrod Taylor completed an 11-yard TD pass with 21 seconds to play after connecting on a long bomb to set up the winning score. The Hokies, who failed to cover as a five-point home favorite, got outgained 343-278 – including 207-86 on the ground – but the defense kept the Cornhuskers out of the end zone, yielding just five field goals ranging from 19 to 40 yards.
The multidimensional Taylor is completing just 47.6 percent of his passes for 444 yards with three TDs and one INT, and he’s only rushed for 10 yards (on 26 carries) with no scores after tallying 1,266 yards and 13 scores on the ground his first two seasons.
Miami snapped a two-game losing skid to the Hokies in South Beach last season, eking out a 16-14 victory. However, Virginia Tech covered as a four-point road underdog, improving to 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings (3-0 ATS in the last three). During this eight-year stretch, the underdog is 6-2 ATS. Also, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Blacksburg.
The Hurricanes are on spread-covering sprees of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 in September and 5-2 against winning teams, but despite last week’s blowout of Georgia Tech, they’re still only 21-43-1 ATS in their last 65 as a favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a road chalk and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 after a spread-cover.
Virginia Tech has now failed to cover in nine of its last 12 in September, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread surges of 13-5 as an underdog, 6-0 as a home pup, 27-11 in ACC action and 5-1 against winning teams.
The under is 5-1 in the last six years in this series, and Virginia Tech is on “under” runs of 14-4 at home, 4-1 in ACC action and 5-0 as a home underdog. Miami carries “under” trends of 14-6 in September and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
Texas Tech (2-1, 2-0 ATS at (17) Houston (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Texas Tech hits the highway within the Lone Star State for the second straight week, this time looking to upend the upstart Cougars.
The Red Raiders were able to hang with Big 12 South rival Texas all night last Saturday, but still came up short 34-24, covering easily as an 18-point road underdog. Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts had a coming-out party, going 46-for-62 for 420 yards and three TD passes, but he had no running game behind him (minus-6 yards on 18 carries), and the offense committed three turnovers. The defense, though, forced two fumbles and held the Longhorns to just 340 total yards.
Houston took last week off after its stunning 45-35 upset victory over then-No. 5 Oklahoma State as a 16-point home underdog. The Cougars racked up 512 total yards in the victory, with QB Case Keenum leading the way (32-for-46, 366 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT). Houston has won three in a row and six of seven going back to the beginning of last November (4-2 ATS in lined action).
Both teams feature explosive passing attacks. Potts (69.5 percent) has already thrown for 1,281 yards and 12 TDs (4 INTs), while Keenum through two games is connecting on 72.4 percent of his throws for 725 yards with seven scoring strikes against one pick.
These teams met every year as members of the Southwest Conference up until 1995, but haven’t squared off since. Texas Tech won the last five battles from 1991-95, scoring 52, 44, 58, 34 and 38 points while going 4-1 ATS.
The Red Raiders are on ATS runs of 4-1-1 in September, 5-2-1 against Conference USA opponents and 38-14 after a SU defeat. Houston is on pointspread rolls of 4-1 at home and 4-1 against winning teams, but if the Cougars go off as a favorite, note that they’re 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when laying points, while Texas Tech is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of less than three points.
It’s all “overs” for both these squads, with Texas Tech on high-scoring surges of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in non-conference play and 27-9 after an ATS win. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in Houston’s last five overall, 6-1 in its last seven in September and 4-0 in its last four versus Big 12 competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Iowa (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at (5) Penn State (3-0, 0-3 ATS)
Iowa and Penn State put their perfect 2009 records on the line under the lights in Happy Valley, with the host Nittany Lions eager to exact revenge against the only opponent to beat them last season.
The Hawkeyes have bounced back nicely after a shaky 17-16 season-opening home win over Northern Iowa, crushing Iowa State (35-3 as a 6½-point road favorite) and Arizona (27-17 as a 3½-point home chalk) the last two weeks. Going back to its shocking 24-23 upset of Penn State at home last Nov. 8, Iowa has won seven in a row, allowing 17 points or less in the last six. Moreover, Kirk Ferentz’s squad is 9-1 in its last 10 (7-2 ATS in lined games), the only blemish being a three-point setback at Illinois.
Penn State feasted on three non-conference cupcakes leading up to this contest, blasting Akron (31-7), Syracuse (28-7) and Temple (31-6). However, the Nittany Lions were favored by 29½, 28½, and 29½ points in the three contests, falling short of cashing in each. Going back to the Iowa loss, Joe Paterno’s team has covered just once in its last seven games.
Although both offenses have done some damage this year – Iowa is averaging 26.3 points and 364 total yards per game; Penn State is putting up 30 points and 397.3 yards per outing – the strength for each team is on defense. The Nittany Lions have held their three opponents to 20 total points and 212.3 yards per game (46.3 rushing ypg), while Iowa is surrendering 12 points and 303.3 yards per contest (but 140.7 rushing ypg).
Penn State went to Iowa City last season with a 9-0 record and a No. 2 ranking and appeared a cinch to earn a bid to the BCS Championship Game. However, the Hawkeyes rebounded from a 23-14 fourth-quarter deficit, getting a 31-yard field goal with one second remaining to steal a 24-23 victory as a 7½-point home underdog, ending the Nittany Lions’ national championship hopes.
Last year’s win was hardly a fluke for Iowa, which is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Penn State, and the Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips in Happy Valley, covering by an average of 13 points per game. The ‘dog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 battles, with five outright upsets.
Iowa is on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 14-5 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. In fact, since Ferentz took over the program in 2006, the Hawkeyes are 29-18 ATS when catching points.
The Nittany Lions have failed to cover in five straight Big Ten home games when laying seven points or more and are mired in further ATS slumps of 0-4 overall, 1-4 at Beaver Stadium, 0-4 in September, 1-5 as a favorite and 5-12-1 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
Iowa is riding “under” streaks of 18-8-1 overall, 21-7-1 on the road, 12-4-1 after a SU win, 14-3 in September, 8-2-1 as an underdog and 11-1-1 as a road pup. Similarly, the under is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five at home and 4-1 in its last five in September. Lastly, the past two meetings in this rivalry in Happy Valley stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (91-62) at N.Y. Yankees (98-56)
The Yankees look to move another step closer to the A.L. East crown – and 100 victories – when they send ace CC Sabathia (18-7, 3.31 ERA) to the hill, while the Red Sox counter with Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-5, 6.80).
New York, which has already clinched a playoff berth, cruised to a 9-5 victory in Friday’s series opener to increase its divisional lead over Boston to 6½ games with nine days remaining in the regular season. The Red Sox continue to have a healthy eight-game edge on the Rangers in the wild-card race.
The Red Sox, who are 5-3 on their current 10-game road trip, are on positive runs of 21-9 overall, 44-20 versus the A.L. East and 6-2 against winning clubs, but they’re 6-14 in their last 20 as an underdog and 2-12 in their last 14 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Yanks have won three in a row and are on incredible runs of 60-24 overall, 47-16 at home, 37-14 versus right-handed starters and 38-14 against divisional foes.
The Red Sox won the first seven meetings in this rivalry this season, but the Yankees have come back to take seven of the last eight, including five in a row in the Bronx by the combined score of 34-13.
After sitting out for three months with a shoulder injury, Matsuzaka has come back strong, posting easily his best two starts of the season. First, he held the Angels scoreless over six innings of a 4-1 win on Sept. 15, then earned a 9-3 victory at Baltimore on Sunday, yielding three runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. He’s 2-1 with a 7.08 ERA in five road starts this year.
With Matsuzaka on the hill, Boston is on streaks of 36-15 overall, 17-4 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog, 12-4 against the A.L. East and 12-4 versus teams with a winning record. Also, he’s 3-2 with a bloated 6.35 ERA in six career starts versus New York, the most recent outing coming almost exactly one year ago.
Sabathia has been dominant over his last nine starts. Beginning with a 5-0 home win over Boston on Aug. 8, he’s gone 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA, and he’s won his last eight decisions and the Yankees are 10-0 behind the hefty lefty since the beginning of August. All 10 of those wins have come by multiple runs, including a 13-3 rout of Baltimore on Sept. 13 and a 10-1 win at Seattle in his last outing a week ago tonight.
Behind Sabathia, New York is on runs of 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 5-0 versus the A.L. East and 13-3 as a favorite. He’s 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 home outings this year but only 4-5 with 3.62 ERA in 10 career regular-season starts against Boston (2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts this year vs. the BoSox).
For Boston, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall (all on the road), 13-5-1 in A.L. East play and 7-3-1 versus lefty starters. However, the under is 13-5-1 in the team’s last 19 on Saturday, 20-7-1 in its last 28 as an underdog and 5-2-1 with Dice-K on the mound. New York is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 in divisional games, 6-2 with Sabathia starting and 3-1-1 on Saturday, but the under is 4-1-1 in Sabathia’s last six home efforts. Finally, the over has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL
Game 305-306: Wake Forest at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 93.524; Boston College 92.019
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 1 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+2 1/2); Over
Game 307-308: Illinois at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 92.737; Ohio State 109.107
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 16 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14; 50
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-14); Over
Game 309-310: Minnesota at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 90.334; Northwestern 88.284
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 43
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2 1/2); Under
Game 311-312: Indiana at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 74.688; Michigan 95.952
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 21 1/2; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 21; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-21); Over
Game 313-314: Buffalo at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 81.586; Temple 78.981
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Temple by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under
Game 315-316: Michigan State at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 92.539; Wisconsin 91.273
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3); Over
Game 317-318: TCU at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 100.761; Clemson 100.270
Dunkel Line: Even; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+3); Under
Game 319-320: Rutgers at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 82.167; Maryland 85.646
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 2 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+2 1/2); Under
Game 321-322: Boise State at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 106.988; Bowling Green 86.061
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 21; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 16 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-16 1/2); Over
Game 323-324: Ohio at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 74.773; Tennessee 100.818
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 26; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 21; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-21); Over
Game 325-326: Central Florida at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 74.862; East Carolina 89.001
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 14; 44
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 10; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-10); Under
Game 327-328: Fresno State at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 88.434; Cincinnati 104.354
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 60 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 17; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+17); Under
Game 329-330: Akron at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 72.527; Central Michigan 88.932
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 16 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 17; 53
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+17); Over
Game 331-332: LSU at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 99.708; Mississippi State 83.126
Dunkel Line: LSU by 16 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: LSU by 12 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-12 1/2); Under
Game 333-334: Army at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Army 72.625; Iowa State 86.193
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 13 1/2; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9; 45
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-9); Over
Game 335-336: Marshall at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 78.669; Memphis 74.133
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 4 1/2; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+3 1/2); Over
Game 337-338: UAB at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 71.458; Texas A&M 91.007
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 19 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 14 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-14 1/2); Under
Game 339-340: Southern Mississippi at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 85.789; Kansas 102.973
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 17; 56
Vegas Line: Kansas by 12 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-12 1/2); Under
Game 341-342: San Diego State at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 68.534; Air Force 92.560
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 24; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Air Force by 16 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-16 1/2); Under
Game 343-344: Vanderbilt at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 88.818; Rice 73.635
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 15; 50
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 7; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-7); Over
Game 345-346: Ball State at Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 66.393; Auburn 100.221
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 34; 55
Vegas Line: Auburn by 32; 52
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-32); Over
Game 347-348: UNLV at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 81.390; Wyoming 79.161
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 2; 42
Vegas Line: UNLV by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+5 1/2); Under
Game 349-350: Arkansas at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 88.108; Alabama 109.386
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 21 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Alabama by 17; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-17); Under
Game 351-352: Florida at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 116.190; Kentucky 89.357
Dunkel Line: Florida by 27; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida by 21 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-21 1/2); Over
Game 353-354: Arizona State at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 89.060; Georgia 100.951
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 12; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia by 11; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-11); Under
Game 355-356: California at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: California 105.898; Oregon 103.935
Dunkel Line: California by 2; 52
Vegas Line: California by 6; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+6); Under
Game 357-358: South Florida at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 91.418; Florida State 107.680
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 16 1/2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida State by 14 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-14 1/2); Over
Game 359-360: North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 96.646; Georgia Tech 93.009
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+2 1/2); Under
Game 361-362: Idaho at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 69.197; Northern Illinois 80.473
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 11 1/2; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 17; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+17); Under
Game 363-364: Colorado State at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 83.935; BYU 96.328
Dunkel Line: BYU by 12 1/2; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 16 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+16 1/2); Over
Game 365-366: Pittsburgh at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 94.104; NC State 94.292
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: NC State by 1 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2); Over
Game 367-368: Washington at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 81.706; Stanford 95.442
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 13 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-6 1/2); Under
Game 369-370: Miami (OH) at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 60.891; Kent State 76.196
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 15 1/2; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-7); Over
Game 371-372: Louisville at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 79.988; Utah 100.092
Dunkel Line: Utah by 20; 49
Vegas Line: Utah by 14; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-14); Under
Game 373-374: Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 96.796; Virginia Tech 97.512
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 1; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+3); Over
Game 375-376: Notre Dame at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 94.949; Purdue 89.636
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 5 1/2; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 7 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+7 1/2); Under
Game 377-378: UTEP at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 78.153; Texas 113.645
Dunkel Line: Texas by 35 1/2; 62 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 36; 63
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+36); Under
Game 379-380: Iowa at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 92.147; Penn State 109.030
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 17; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 9 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-9 1/2); Under
Game 381-382: Texas Tech at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 100.832; Houston 102.218
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 71
Vegas Line: Houston by 1; 70
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1); Over
Game 383-384: New Mexico State at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 57.407; New Mexico 73.283
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 16; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-9); Over
Game 385-386: Washington State at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 67.669; USC 111.422
Dunkel Line: USC by 44; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 46 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+46 1/2); Over
Game 387-388: Arizona at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 94.588; Oregon State 99.725
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-1); Over
Game 389-390: UL Monroe at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 74.647; Florida Atlantic 73.317
Dunkel Line: UL Monroe by 1 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 4; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (+4); Over
Game 391-392: UL Lafayette at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 75.123; Nebraska 105.432
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 30 1/2; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 26 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-26 1/2); Under
Game 393-394: Western Kentucky at Navy
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 60.958; Navy 94.804
Dunkel Line: Navy by 34; 51
Vegas Line: Navy by 28 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-28 1/2); Over
Game 395-396: Troy at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 79.236; Arkansas State 82.587
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 1 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-1 1/2); Over
Game 397-398: Middle Tennessee State at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 81.170; North Texas 70.828
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 6; 51
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-6); Over
Game 399-400: Toledo at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 72.032; Florida International 79.213
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 7; 55
Vegas Line: Toledo by 2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Louisville at Utah
Louisville may be the perfect opponent for the 0-3 ATS Utes as not only are the Cardinals from the BCS Conference (Big East) that the Mountain West likes to point to as most undeserving of its status, but Utah is catching them one week removed from a tough loss to in-state rival Kentucky. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog, including 1-8 ATS if the game was on the road.
Play on: Utah
Charlie Scott
California vs. Oregon
Play: Under 55
It's always tough for oppossing offense's to play at Oregon. Todays weather forecast is calling for gusty winds, which will make it difficult for the passing and kicking games. The wind should force Cal to run the ball, meanwhile Oregon and QB Masoli Can't pass. Throw in the suspension of lunatic RB Blount and Play UNDER !
LT Profits
Rice +7.0
The Rice Owls are a lot better than they have looked so far while this is a bad scheduling spot for the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Rice is off to a dismal 0-3 start, but keep in mind that all three games have come on the road and that they were outclassed in there last two losses, visiting Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. That makes this their home opener, and the Owls were a perfect 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread here last season while winning by an average of +22.8 points.
Now granted, the Owls ate averaging just 19.3 points per game, but it is not as if they have not moved the ball, as they are averaging a respectable 341.7 yards of total offense per game. Perhaps playing at home for the first time will result in fewer empty trips to the red zone.
Vanderbilt is coming off of a disappointing 15-3 home upset loss to Mississippi State in their SEC opener as nine-point favorites, and they return to the conference wars when they host nationally ranked Mississippi next week. Thus, they may not be entirely focused on this seemingly inferior non-conference opponent, and remember that the Commodores offense is not explosive enough to be laying a touchdown on the road vs. any capable opponent.
As if those reasons are not enough to like Rice here, there is also a matter of revenge as Vandy beat the Owls at home 38-21 last season. With Rice now hosting the rematch, do not be entirely shocked by an outright upset here.
Pick: Rice +7
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -177
Bottom Line: The Twins are in hot pursuit of the Tigers in the Central and playing red hot baseball (10-1 L11). No way they let the Royals stand in their way today, especially not with DiNardo on the mound, who brings in an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 2.348. The Twins are 6-1 in Baker's last 7 starts as a road favorite and 6-2 in his last 8 starts vs. the Royals. Plus Minnesota has won 4 straight over KC and is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Twins.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Astros -141
Big motivation for the Astros here as they look to avenge 8 straight losses to the Reds. Plus, Cincy is primed and ready for a letdown after 5 straight wins. And ultimately, the Astros send the better starter to the hill. Cincy's Justin Lehr has an ERA of 8.04 and a WHIP of 1.978 while Houston's Felipe Paulino has an ERA of 3.80 at home on the season and 3.71 over his last 3 starts. Plus, Lehr was roughed up for 5 earned in 5 innings just 10 games ago by the 'stros, allowing 11 hits, 5 of which were homeruns. The Reds won that game by a run, but I don't see that happening here as he is opposed by a better starter this time around. Bet the Astros.
Tony Mathews
Minnesota vs. Northwestern
Selection: Minnesota -1
Minnesota travels to Illinois this weekend to face off against Northwestern as the Conference games begin. The Gophers are a talented team and possess a nice edge over the Wildcats. Minnesota has recruited several fine players and has hired competent coordinators for both the offense and defense, and with a little time the team will take on a nice form. The Gophers have already played 3 tough games, 2 at home against Air Force and California, as well as one on the road against Syracuse. While these were not conference games, there is a lot to be said about being battle tested. Minnesota does need some extra time too improve their running game, however, against Northwestern they will have the opportunity for more downhill play. With the combined skill and talent of the new offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, QB Adam Weber and WR Eric Decker, it is only a matter of time before the offensive unit becomes a strong, cohesive force to be reckoned with.
While Minnesota has built themselves up, the Wildcats have actually lost several key playmakers since last season; not a good thing for conference play. It’s also apparent that the Northwestern defense is lacking after they allowed an inexperienced Syracuse offense to rack up 471 yards. There is no doubt that the Gophers are the more capable team in this matchup.
Take Minnesota -1
JR TIPS
NOTRE DAME vs. PURDUE
Saturday night’s matchup is a rematch after the Fighting Irish smacked the Boilermakers in South Bend 38-2 although it shouldn't be that easy this time around. Notre Dame and their quarterback Clausen who is another star whose status is uncertain, he"ll play but it is unknown how effective he will be with his injured foot so look for a lot of short dump-offs to the running backs to get Clausen into a groove. He will also use Kyle Rudolph, the star tight end as there isn’t a linebacker in the country that can cover the agile tight end. Look for more wildcat formations from the Irish offense after they found success with it against Michigan State and they will implemented more this week to give Clausen some time to rest. The Irish offense has been carrying the Irish all season as the defense has been miserable (aside from the Nevada game). Purdue’s offense under new head coach Randy Hope beging and ends its success with their quarterback, Joey Elliot. He has a live arm and has the ability to escape the pocket, as he proved with two rushing touchdowns last week. He also has an extremely talented running back to hand the ball off to in Ralph Bolden and is the Irish decide they want to tackle like they did against Michigan State, Bolden could easily rush for 200 yards. Notre Dame should be able to get away with a lot of man and press coverage, which would allow more blitzes as Purdue doesn’t have the weapons on the outside to scare the Notre Dame secondary. This game will depend of which defense can make stops. Both defenses have been torched in the last two games. The Irish offense should still be able to score and the only way Purdue has a shot at winning this game is if it turns into a shootout. Home filed will help Purdues offense today as you will see alot of big plays all day against these two defenses.
TAKE NOTRE DAME/PURDUE OVER 60
HENTAI SPORTS
Arizona State Sun Devils at Georgia Bulldogs
Prediction : Georgia Bulldogs -7.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are truly overmatched here. Sure they have looked good in their first two games but so would I if I played the pansies that they played. This is also Arizona State’s first trip to the deep south this decade. Georgia has had three tough teams to start the season but they move down in competition and I see this game being over very, very quickly.