Jeff Benton
Ohio at TENNESSEE -23'
I’ve hit my last two freebies in Saturday college football action, both easy winners on TCU routing Virginia two weeks ago and Air Force crushing New Mexico last week, so I’m now 15-6 with my last 21 college football complimentary plays since last season. I’ll make it three in a row and 16 of 22 today by backing Tennessee minus the points versus Ohio.
This play really comes down one factor: Can the Volunteers’ offense, which was so vanilla against Florida last week and so bad against UCLA the previous week, score four touchdowns? Answer: Maybe, but it probably won’t have to do all the scoring itself. Because Tennessee’s defense is the real deal, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it outscores the offense tonight (or at least sets the offense up with great field position all night). One thing’s for certain: Ohio’s offense is not going to find the end zone against the Vols’ defense.
Sure, the stats show that the Bobcats have scored 31 and 28 points the last two weeks. However, that was against North Texas (and 11 of those 31 came in overtime sessions, with Ohio barely winning 31-30) and Division I-AA Cal Poly (and 7 of those 28 points came on a first-quarter interception return). If you want a true gauge of how weak Ohio’s offense is, look at the season-opener against UConn. In that game, the Bobcats had just 16 points and 247 yards (1.9 rushing yards per carry). And while UConn’s defense is pretty good, it ain’t even close to as good as the D Monte Kiffin has crafted in Knoxville.
Back to the original point: Can Tennessee put points on the board here? Well, you know Lane Kiffin will open things up offensively after playing it close to the vest last week at Florida. And the last time he opened things up against a weak opponent, the Vols put up nine touchdowns and 657 yards in a 63-7 rout of Western Kentucky in Week 1. What we also learned in that season opener is Kiffin will run it up if given the chance, and it makes sense as he’s trying to instill confidence in his young team (especially offensively).
Bottom line: This is a huge step up in class for the Bobcats, while Tennessee catches a breather after facing UCLA and Florida. And with Auburn, Georgia and Alabama on deck for the Vols, Kiffin knows this is his only chance to get a big win in front of the home crowd before Halloween, and he’ll pull out all the stops to get it.
4♦ TENNESSEE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Florida -21' at KENTUCKY
After being limited to just 23 points last week at home against a Tennesee team that deliberatly took the air out of the football, expect Florida to break free and take out some of their frustrations on a Kentucky team that have absolutely hammered the last 2 seasons both straight up, and against the spread.
Florida manhandled Kentucky 63-5 last season in Gainsville, and while they may not score as many today in Lexington, it still won't be pretty for the Wildcats.
Kentucky struggled to put away a bad Louisville team last week, and they are just 1-6 against the spread their last 7 when hosting schools from the SEC.
Florida meanwhile, is on a 10-1 spread run their last 11 lined games, and you just know the prideful Tim Tebow who was held without a touchdown for the first time in his last 31 games will make it his mission to rack the points up here.
Count on it happening.
Florida in a white-washing.
Play on the Gators.
4♦ FLORIDA
Bobby Maxwell
Miami -2' at VIRGINIA TECH
Very nice FREE winner on the Rockies Friday night as they were +140 money coming home with a win over the Cardinals. That makes it four straight comp winners for my clients, with a freebie today on Miami as the Hurricanes head north to take on Virginia Tech.
Is The U officially back? A lot of experts seem to think so and I'm somewhat convinced, but cautiously so. Miami has come out and beaten two tough ACC foes this season, getting South Florida excited and causing them to be a short favorite in this tough road contest at Virginia Tech.
I'm going to lay the chalk with the Hurricanes as QB Jacory Harris is the real deal. In Miami's 33-17 win over Gerogia Tech, he threw for 270 yards and three TDs without an INT. For the season he's completing almost 70 percent of his throws for 656 yards, five TDs and two INTs.
Miami beat Florida State 38-34 in the opener and then got the huge performance from Harris in their 33-17 win as a 4 1/2-point favorites.
Virginia Tech scored a miracluous 16-15 win on Saturday as QB Tyrod Taylor completed an 11-yards pass with 21 second left to edge the Cornhuskers. The Hokies failed to cover the five-point line against Nebraska, getting outgained in every category, including 207-86 on the ground.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series, even though Miami is just 1-4 in its last five trips to Blacksburg.
Miami is on a series of ATS streaks, including 6-2 on the road, 4-1 in September and 5-2 against winning teams. VaTech has failed to cover in nine of 12 September games. The Hokies just don't open the season very well.
Play Miami to win this one by about 7.
4♦ MIAMI
Tony Weston
Let's reel in a third straight complimentary winner today by backing Washington State plus the points on the road at USC.
Last week I told you to take the points with Washington at home against the Trojans. If you listened, you cashed in as the Huskies pulled off the outright upset.
This week, the Trojans are laying about 45 1/2, 46 points, depending on where you’re playing this, and will once again fail to cover at home against visiting Washington State.
Your mind may be telling you to avoid Washington State based on that 69-0 embarrassment from a year ago when USC covered easily as a 42 1/2 point favorite. But, a lot has changed since then, namely at the quarterback position. The Trojans are still in flux at quarterback as Matt Barkley is still not 100 percent and Aaron Corp proved last week he can’t lead this team.
Now, as good as the Trojans have been over the years, they haven’t been much of a money maker, going only 35-32 ATS since the 2004-05 season. USC is also just 3-8 its last 11 games against the Pac-10, including only 1-4 ATS its last 5.
Consider, too, since 2003, the Trojans are a perfect 6-0 SU and are 5-1 ATS against Washington State. However, in that stretch USC has beaten the Cougars only by an average of 31.5 points per game.
In their last 3 games in Los Angeles the Trojans have beaten Washington State by an average of only 34 points.
Now, I’m not going to say Washington State is going to pull off the upset like Washington did last week, but the Cougars will stay within the number. Take the points with Washington State.
3♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Randall the Handle
Fresno State +17 over CINCINNATI
Cincinnati is on a roll to start the season opening 3-0 and is getting respect from the Associated Press and Coaches in the polls. I’m not going to diminish what they’ve done in beating two BCS teams on the road but this is still not a team that can be counted on to cover two touchdown spreads on a consistent basis. The two legitimate Cincinnati wins came against teams with serious questions at Quarterback and in College Football it’s almost impossible to win games with poor play at that position. Why does this matter? - Because Cincinnati lost an eye-opening 10 defensive starters from their 2008 team and was fortunate to face schools who couldn’t get anything from their offense. Enter Fresno State, who has a history of playing any team at any location and isn’t intimated by any team in College Football. Fresno State is led by leading FBS rusher Ryan Mathews, who has rushed for 449 yards through three games and has helped the Fresno State offense average 38 points a game thus far. The Fresno State offense can score points against legitimate teams and should be able to score touchdowns against an unproven and untested Cincinnati defense. The odds-makers agree, as they have set the total at 61.5, the fourth highest posted total of this weekend’s games. The key to keeping the game within reach for Fresno State will be to contain the Cincinnati duo of Quarterback Tony Pike and Wide Receiver Marshawn Gilyard. Pike and Gilyard are both having phenomenal seasons and will need to get the full attention of Fresno State’s defense. Fresno State will have to keep them off the field with long and extended drives that eat up the clock and keep the game close enough to provide them with a chance to win. With an established running game going up against an unknown Cincinnati defense, the game-plan is there for Hill and Fresno State to shock the Bearcats. It wouldn’t be the first time a top 25-team lost to the team nobody ever wants to play. Play: #327 Fresno State +17 (Risking 2.20 units to win 2).
OHIO STATE -14 over Illinois
While Ohio State’s National Title aspirations vanished with a close loss against Southern California, this is still one of the premier programs in all of College Football. Talent is never an issue at a school like Ohio State and I believe they are taking unfair criticism for barely beating Navy and the aforementioned loss to USC. This is still a team that features the likes of High School Player of the Year Terrelle Pryor, NFL caliber defensive safety’s Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell and Running Back Dan Herron. Ohio State has had the most players drafted out of any school since 2000, meaning Coach Jim Tressel reloads every year and will always have the players to compete for a BCS game. Now Illinois must come into the Horseshoe to open Big 10 play and the reality is we still know very, very little about this team. Illinois looked terrible in losing to Missouri, a team who they should have handled and then played FCS “rival” Illinois State in a game that means absolutely nothing. Here is what we know about Illinois: They have a hit-or-miss Quarterback in Juice Williams, who can either single handedly win you a game or kill all momentum with killer interceptions, and are coached by the much maligned Ron Zook, who has a 10-22 conference record and is 6-13 on the road during his time at Illinois. It’s also worth noting that Williams did not play two weeks ago and is battling a Quadriceps injury but is going to play this week. Ohio State will look to establish the run against an Illinois defense that returned 5 starters from last year’s team, a team which Ohio State had 305 yards rushing against in last season’s game. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor will contribute to the running game, as he already rushed for 176 yards and two touchdowns on the season and Dan Herron will also look to rebound from a disappointing start to the year. The unfortunate truth for Illinois is they lack the talent to keep up with a faster and more motivated Ohio State team. The fact that we know almost nothing about them makes backing them very difficult to understand, as the College game is all about what have you done and where have you done it. In Illinois case, that’s absolutely nothing. Play: #308 Ohio State – 14 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
EZWINNERS
Washington Huskies @ Stanford Cardinals
Play: Stanford Cardinals -8.5
The Huskies are much improved this season and are coming off of a huge upset of USC last week. This is a great spot for a flat performance by a Huskies team that was 0-12 last season. I'm not convinced that Washington has learned how to handle success and they are up against a Cardinals team that is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams. Stanford is also a PAC 10 team that is on the rise and the Cardinals have big advantages in the running game and special teams and I expect that to be a key factor. This is another game that also falls into the unranked home team laying points against a ranked opponent. Lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Texas Tech/Houston OVER 74
I don't expect to see much defense played in this one. When Houston played Oklahoma State 2 weeks ago, we saw 80 total points scored and I expect at least that many here. The Cougars have had an extra week to prepare so they will be very fresh. The Red Raiders will be hungry to get right back in the win column after suffering their first loss of the season at Texas last week. Plus, that game went under the total with Texas Tech scoring only 24 points. That is significant as Tech is 12-3 OVER in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992. These teams win one way, by outscoring their opponents and we can expect to see a shootout here. The OVER is 4-0 in the Cougars last 4 vs. the Big 12. Bet the Over.
Bettorsworld
2* Minnesota pk over Northwestern
Both of these squads played at Syracuse but only one came away with a win.......Minnesota. Though both games were 3 point games. Northwestern has had the Gophers number the last two years, beating them by a touchdown last year and by 1 point in a 49-48 shootout in 2007. Losing over and over to the same team is certainly a great motivator. Minnesota is loaded with returning starters from last years team on both sides of the ball. Northwestern has played Towson, Easter Mich and Syracuse while Minnesota has played Air Force and Cal, as well as Syracuse. This is a situation where having played the tougher schedule will help Minnesota. They were able to tie #6 Cal in the 3rd quarter last week before falling by 14. Expect things to work a little easier for them this week. We'll take the Gophers here at pk.
2* Michigan State +3 over Wisky
Wisconsin is 3-0 but barely. They were lucky to get by Fresno and Northern Illinois and then blew out Wofford. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 1-2 but really just two plays away from being 3-0 themselves. Yet find themselves in danger of being 1-3 on the year and watching their Bowl game hopes fly out the window and it's still September!. Expect the desperation to kick in this week. Michigan State is every bit as good as the Badgers. Wisky is 5-9 last 14 as a fav and 8-17 against the spread last 25 games on the board. We look for the Spartans to win this one straight up.
Chip Chirimbes
Arizona State vs. Georgia
Play: Arizona State +11.5
Last season the Arizona State Sun Devils hosted the Georgia Bulldogs at home and were poised to pull a major upset, only to find that they had a gag in their mouths as their quarterback stained his pants and the Bulldogs won easily on the road. This season Georgia comes off two hugh wins against South Carolina and Arkansas where they scored 93 points. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they have LSU up next and they can get caught peeking ahead. Take the points with ARIZONA STATE!
Evan Altemus
California at Oregon
This game has been one of the biggest rivalries in college football over the last few years. As a result, each team brings their best effort into this game and is one thing that must be considered. These emotional rivalry games have a way of leveling the playing field sometimes, even though one team may come into the game with a seemingly significant advantage.
With these types of games, I like to look at the series history because the quality of athletes usually stays the same over the years at schools, unless a significant change is brought on, good or bad, by a new coach. First thing I noticed is that the home team has won outright in five of the last six meetings between these two teams. However, Cal has won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams, including a win at Oregon in 2007. Also, the Ducks haven't had a convincing win over the Bears since 2001, as their 2005 win came in overtime. Another trend I noticed is that this meeting has gone under the total in six of the last eight meetings, including last year's 26-16 win by the Bears.
Next, I looked at the current state of each team heading into this game. California has looked good so far this season, but they really haven't been tested. Last week's win at Minnesota was somewhat of a quality win, but they allowed the Golden Gophers to keep the game tied until the 4th quarter. The Bears did suffer a bad injury in that game, as their star receiver, Nyan Boateng, will be out for several weeks with a foot injury. He really opened the offense and was a favorite target of Kevin Riley. Meanwhile, Oregon comes in having played much stiffer competition, with a road game at Boise State and home games against Purdue and Utah. However, the Ducks offense looked absolutely anemic against a Boise State defense that didn't look particularly impressive last week at Fresno State. They will also severely miss star running game LeGarrette Blount for the rest of the season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has not looked either, completing only 45% of his passes with two interceptions. The close home win by Oregon over Purdue is much more telling to me than the loss at Boise State. The Ducks should have dominated the Boilermakers in that game, as they had all of the motivation of rebounding from the Boise State game, as well as playing their first home game of the season. However, Purdue, not a particularly good team, kept the game close down to the wire. That outcome is very telling about Oregon.
Overall I would love to have a reason to take Oregon with the points. However, they have not looked good so far this season, and they have a first year head coach. The Ducks must be able to run the ball in order have success on offense, but California has a very good rush defense, yielding only 62 yards per game on the ground. I expect Oregon's defense to play very motivated as well though, and the injury to Boateng will severely impact the Cal offense. I feel that this total is inflated based on the misconception that both teams have explosive offenses. However, I expect this game to be fiercely contested and lower scoring than people think. My recommendation is to take a two unit play on the under.
DUNKEL
Seattle at Toronto
The Mariners look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-0 loss and build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 5 or more runs in the previous game. Seattle is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120)
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 16.121; Washington (Mock) 13.826
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-205); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-205); Under
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.419; Milwaukee (Looper) 16.545
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Lehr) 16.492; Houston (Paulino) 13.388
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+140); Over
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.226; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.787
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+170); Over
Game 909-910: NY Mets at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.045; Florida (West) 14.734
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135); Over
Game 911-912: St. Louis at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.595; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.315
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 913-914: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 15.022; Arizona (Haren) 15.220
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-180); Over
Game 915-916: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.278; San Francisco (Zito) 15.879
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Under
Game 917-918: Seattle at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 15.961; Toronto (Purcey) 14.809
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Under
Game 919-920: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 17.716; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.571
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+170); Under
Game 921-922: Baltimore at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 13.152; Cleveland (Sowers) 13.650
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Under
Game 923-924: Detroit at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 14.941; White Sox (Garcia) 16.059
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over
Game 925-926: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.668; Kansas City (Dinardo) 16.057
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Under
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.181; Texas (Millwood) 16.298
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under
Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 15.736; LA Angels (Lackey) 16.447
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-230); Over
WNBA
Detroit at Indiana
The Fever look to follow up yesterday's win and take advantage of a Detroit team that is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Indiana is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2 1/2)
Game 609-610: Detroit at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.426; Indiana 114.396
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2 1/2); Under
Game 611-612: Los Angeles at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 114.207; Phoenix 121.660
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 174 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
CFL
Saskatchewan at Edmonton
The Roughriders took to build on their 11-4-1 ATS record in their last 16 meetings in Edmonton. Saskatchewan is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4)
Game 475-476: Saskatchewan at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 112.096; Edmonton 114.301
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 2; 60
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4); Over
Game 477-478: Toronto at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 101.776; Winnipeg 108.939
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 7; 41
Vegas Line: Pick; 44
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg; Under
MTi Sports
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 8-0 since April 19, 2009 after being shutout. Consider San Francisco over the Cubs.
Sammy Jankus
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
Notre Dame at Purdue
3* Fighting Irish-Boilermakers to go UNDER 60 points
Time to replace the lights in the Ross-Ade Stadium scoreboard. Before last week’s ‘looking ahead to Notre Dame’ 28-21 loss to Northern Illinois, the Boilers had averaged 78.5 combined points per game against Toledo and Oregon. As you may have noticed in contests against other Big 10 foes Michigan and Michigan State, the Irish have NO defense. And after getting ripped for 280 yards on the ground by the mediocre Huskies, it’s apparent Purdue cannot stop a rushing attack. With Notre Dame QB Clausen dinged up, that’s just what the Irish will do here – run, run and run some more. I think these two will SHATTER the OU line of 60 points – so your play is on UNDER THE TOTAL.
OC Dooley
"1 UNIT" NATIONAL-TV COLLEGE TOTAL
Miami at Virginia Tech OVER 47
There is some risk with this total because these two teams played a very low scoring game a year ago (14-12) and there is an 80% chance of rain in the forecast. However that forecast is ultimately going to help lower this total as the afternoon progreses which gives us some value to work with. For more than a decade Virginia Tech has built a winning football program by "creating" touchdowns on both special teams and defense and I feel at least one turnover in the rainy conditions is going to lead to a score. But the real key to this total has to do with a Miami offense that in recent seasons had become very predictable and somewhat "vanilla". So far in 2009 that certainly has not been the case with the help of a new offensive coordinator's schemes that has made quarterback Jacory Harris (656 PASS yards for season) a star. With the Hurricanes being seen across the entire country in primetime twice already, Harris with one more solid performance is going to instantly become a Heisman Trophy darkhorse. Today he and the Hurricanes will be facing a Virginia Tech defense which typically has been one of the country's best, but currently has a very low national ranking (#107) due to a poor performance opening week versus Alabama. It personally came as no shock to me or my clients that Virginia Tech played a very low scoring game last week against a very physical Nebraska squad that has a defensive oriented head coach. But what was interesting about last week is that Virginia Tech ultimately pulled out a victory on an 81-YARD touchdown pass. Last Saturday many Hokies fans left early and were booing a Virginia Tech attack they deemed too predictable, but at least the Hokies attack enters a new week with the confidence that they can complete several long passes. As menitoned earlier there is an 80% chance of rain today which makes the rushing attacks of both teams critical. So far this season Virginia Tech's defense is allowing the opposition to rush for a shocking average of 200 yards per game. If Miami can establish a solid running game, that will only make their quarterback more dangerous. As for the Hokies they are off a 16-15 nailbiter which opens the door to an interesting angle from my database research. Ever since Frank Beamer has been head coach, Virginia Tech is a shocking 8-1 OVER the total when off a CLOSE win of 3-or-less points
Bryan Leonard
Toledo at Florida International
Toledo has had a very eventful start to the season under new coach Tim Beckman. The team traveled to Purdue for their opener and fell behind big only to have some success in the second half of a 52-31 loss. They then hosted Big 12 entrant Colorado on national television and looked terrific in a 54-38 victory. Then the Rockets had the rare chance to face instate powerhouse Ohio State at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Now they travel to Florida to take on FIU before returning home next week to seek shutout revenge against league rival Ball State as the MAC schedule starts up. That 31-0 loss to the Redhawks last year was the only time Toledo had been held scoreless in the past decade. That is before they faced Ohio State last week.
The Rockets have a strong home field advantage but they haven't been able to have the same success on the road. They have won just three road games over the last three plus seasons. The team is 0-5 in the role of road favorite and 8-21-1 overall away from home since 2003. This is not the team you want to back away from home especially in this scheduling situation. Because of their success against Colorado in front of a national audience we are getting nice line value here based on public perception.
The Golden Panthers of FIU have come a long way since Mario Cristobal took over the program in 2007. They were coming off an 0-12 season and were pounded in Cristobal's opening game 59-0 at Penn State. But since that time the Golden Panthers have posted a 15-10 spread mark including a perfect 6-0 ATS record against non-conference opposition. They started this season with spread covering road games at Alabama and Rutgers. Unlike most of the teams in the Sun Belt Conference, FIU under Cristobal is not looking to take a paycheck from these BCS schools. He wants to see how his team stacks up and he plays these games to win. Just ask these Toledo Rockets who lost to FIU in the Glass Bowl last year 35-16 as a 19 1/2 point favorite. The Golden Panthers are 7-3 ATS at home under this regime and own the far better stop unit.
Florida International as well as the entire Sun Belt Conference is on the upswing. They have made great strides since entering the FBS. The MAC on the other hand looks to be regressing. Just look at how these conferences performed in Bowl games last year if you still doubt us. The Sun Belt was 1-1 straight up with the loss coming in overtime. The MAC was 0-5 straight up with one of the losses coming against a Sun Belt opponent as Florida Atlantic beat Central Michigan 24-21. Better defense from an equal conference playing at home. The Golden Panthers sweep their home and home with the Rockets.
PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL