Steve Merril
Miami FL @ Virginia Tech
PICK: Virginia Tech +3
Solid line value with Virginia Tech as a rare home underdog, especially at +3 or more today. The Hokies would have been at least a full touchdown favorite if this game was played three weeks ago, but the oddsmakers and public have now adjusted the line nearly 10 full points based on recent results. This is only the fourth time this decade that Frank Beamer has been installed as a home underdog and he is a perfect 3-0 ATS so far.
Miami-Fla is coming off two big revenge wins versus Florida State and Georgia Tech and the Hurricanes have another huge game on deck at home next week versus Oklahoma, so Miami might come in a bit flat today against a Virginia Tech team they beat 16-14 last season.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Under
Texas is 21-7-1 UNDER their last 29 games vs. AL East teams and they are 38-16-4 UNDER their last 58 home games. The Rangers are 25-10-3 UNDER in the last 38 starts made by Kevin Millwood and they are 19-6-2 UNDER on Saturday. Tampa Bay is 21-5-1 UNDER the last 27 starts made by Matt Garza and they are 10-2-1 UNDER with Garza vs. winning teams. The Rays are 9-4 UNDER their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 meetings with the Rangers. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Sean Higgs
Ball State vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -33.5
Tigers will run roughshod over this Ball State bunch. Ball State can't generate any offense and is clearly in rebuilding mode. Even with Tennessee on deck, Auburn should cover this number with relative ease. Auburn reserves will be pumped to be getting a lot of action and the won't take their foot off the throttle.
Jack Jones
Arizona U vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State -3
The line for this game started with Arizona actually being favored by 2.5 points over Oregon State, but it has since moved closer to where it should be with the Beavers favored by 3 points, however, I think the line should be even higher than that. What has Arizona done to earn so much respect this year? They very nearly got upset by Central Michigan, the beat up on Northern Arizona (they were 30 point favorites and won by 17), and they are coming off of a 10-point loss at Iowa last week. The Wildcats are now 0-3 against the spread this season, and that tells me they have been overrated from the get-go. Oregon State is coming off of a tough home loss to Cincinnati, who just might be one of the most dangerous teams in the nation. Arizona is just 1-9 SU and ATS against the Beavers in the last 10 meetings, where Oregon State's average margin of victory is 16.5 points. As long as the Rodgers brothers are healthy (and it appears that they are) I expect those trends to continue tonight.
Evan Altemus
Western Kentucky at Navy
Selection: 1ST HALF NAVY -18
I completely ignored this game because of the large spread, however I read an article yesterday about how Navy's coach said this game is the biggest of the year for them. They are coming off of two losses in three games against Ohio State and Pittsburgh, and coach Ken Niumatalolo is concerned over the offense. He said Ricky Dobbs is not running the offense very well and wants to correct that today. Dobbs should have no problem tearing apart a Western Kentucky defense that has never faced the triple option and is giving up 275 yards on the ground. I like the 1st half selection here today because Navy's intensity will be high for the first two quarters, so I expect their offense to put up several touchdowns in the 1st half. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has only put up 27 points through 3 games this year. I expect the Navy defense to be fired up and for the Midshipmen to be leading by 20 or more points at halftime.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Michael Cannon
Pittsburgh at NC STATE -1
I’m 7-2 with my last nine overall free plays.
Take Pitt for the road win over NC State.
I’m not sold on NC State’s Russell Wilson. I know he’s riding a record streak of 329 passes without an interception, but against moderate to good competition the Wolfpack never seems to find the endzone.
This will be one of those moments as the Panthers come into this game riding a 3-0 start.
The Panthers have the best player on the field in freshman running back Dion Lewis. This kid is making Pitt fans forget LeSean McCoy in a hurry. Lewis has already amassed 398 yards rushing and five TDs on the year. His ability to move the chains will mean Pitt controls the tempo of this game this afternoon.
The Panthers have the better defense, offense and team than the Wolfpack and will prove it here today.
NC State has beaten up on creampuffs the last two weeks, but the step up in competition will be its undoing today.
Take Pitt for the road win.
3♦ PITT
Miami-Fla -2' at VIRGINIA TECH
Take Miami (Fla) minus the points over Virginia Tech.
I know this game is in Blacksburg but it won’t matter for the rolling Hurricanes.
Miami is back people and they are going to prove it once again on the road today.
What makes you think Blacksburg is going to be any tougher than on the road at Florida State?
The Hurricanes are in this position because they have sick team speed and one of the best young quarterbacks in the nation in Jacory Harris.
Harris has incredible poise and ice water in his veins. This venue won’t affect him at all and you’re going to see it first hand.
On the other side of the ball, Tyrod Taylor is trying to prove he’s a good passer. He’s not. He needs to stick to the playground broken play element where he can run around and make yards with his legs.
The only problem is the Hurricanes defense is fast enough to neutralize him.
Miami is on ATS runs of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 in September and 5-2 against winning teams.
Virginia Tech has failed to cover in nine of its last 12 in September.
Take Miami as they grab the road win and cover.
3♦ MIAMI (FLA)
Drew Gordon
Arkansas at ALABAMA -17'
Now on a 61-50 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Arkansas/Alabama match up.
Intriguing match up here, as the Tide host the Razorbacks in this SEC battle. I know its tempting to take Ryan Mallet and company at such a "bargain" price, but buyer beware, this will be his toughest test of the season (other than at the Swamp in October), and it'll show in the final boxscore. Read on...
There's no question the addition of rocket-armed QB Ryan Mallet has propelled this Arkansas team to the forefront, but let's not get too caught up in the media hype, this is still a Razorbacks team with A LOT of holes... Holes Nick Saban will most certainly take advantage of this afternoon.
Like what you ask? Let's start with the disparity on defense. While Arkansas has improved, a large majority of that improvement has come on the offensive side of the ball. The fact Georgia was able to put up 52 points last Saturday say a lot, as we all know this is a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. On the flip side, Saban's defense has never been better, starting with DT Cody, and then onto LBs McClain and Hightower, followed by deeply talented secondary. The Tide are allowing 15 ppg on just 185.3 total yards per game, and while the Razorbacks are good, this Alabama defense is that much better!
Now, while the edge at QB goes to Arkansas, do not underestimate this 'Bama team on offense, where they've averaged a hearty 42 ppg on 512 total yards! Key to beating Arkansas will be the Tide's ability to run the ball, and they've been excellent thus far, averaging a whopping 267 rushing yards per game! Mark Ingram has been great, while Richardson and Grant showed flashes during their 53-7 ass-whipping of North Texas. Arkansas is VERY beatable on the defensive side, and that's the difference in this contest.
Bottom line, do not make the mistake of buying into the media hype with Mallet and company this afternoon. Arkansas is better, but they still have a ways to go before competing with the Big Dogs in the SEC. Alabama is going to make a statement in this contest, giving Mallet all he can handle and then some, while running roughshod over this Arkansas D. Tide roll!
Take Alamaba over Arkansas in this college football match up.
2♦ ALABAMA
Dominic Fazzini
Iowa at PENN STATE -9.5
I was dead wrong Friday taking the Phillies on the run line as my complimentary selection. But I rarely miss two days in a row.
Revenge is often overrated in sports, especially in college football, but no matter how much Penn State coach Joe Paterno wants to deny that the Nittany Lions are out to avenge their loss last year to Iowa, you better believe they want this game badly.
The Hawkeyes denied Penn State a possible perfect season last year with a last-second 24-23 victory in Iowa City on Nov. 8. Iowa has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams, but Paterno's team turns things around today.
Nittany Lions quarterback Daryll Clark was 9 of 23 for 86 yards with an interception in that loss to Iowa, but he has been playing well this year, completing 67 percent of his passes for 760 yards with eight touchdowns in three games. And Even Royster had 134 yards rushing last week in Penn State's 31-6 victory over Temple.
Iowa is banged up on offense, with left tackle Bryan Bulaga likely to miss his third straight game, and tight end Tony Moeaki and receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos also might sit out today.
Penn State has won 24 straight home games against unranked opponents by an average of 26.4 points. The Nittany Lions probably won't win this one by that amount, but I do think they will cover the points and get a measure of -- yes -- revenge. Take Penn State today.
3♦ PENN STATE
Stephen Nover
Washington State +46 at SOUTHERN CAL
This line keeps getting higher and higher after USC opened -43. Were the oddsmakers that far off? I don't believe so.
Conventional thinking is the Trojans will bury the Cougars being in a terrible mood after Washington stunned them last week.
I'm not buying into that thinking. My case isn't built around Washington State, although let's not lose sight that the Cougars are a Pac-10 school.
USC has road games at California and Notre Dame up next. The Trojans don't and won't go all out in this matchup, nor will they want to show anything. They will be as vanilla as possible content to try to avoid key injuries by getting their starters out early. The Trojans have a number of stars banged-up such as safety Taylor Mays, one of the best defensive players in the nation. It's doubtful Trojans coach Pete Carroll would want to risk Mays and other banged-up players for a game he could easily win with his second-stringers.
Surprisingly Carroll is starting Matt Barkley. The freshman quarterback missed last week's loss at Washington because of a sore shoulder. His passes have lacked zip in practice this week. Not only is Barkley a freshman playing in just his second college game, but he won't be 100 percent.
The Cougars have managed to lose by an average of 34.5 points in their previous six meetings versus USC. The Trojans are 0-3 against the number after playing Washington and 2-11 against the spread in Game 4 during the past 13 seasons.
I'm going to play Washington State. But I'm in no hurry to lock into the number because I see the line continuing to rise.
2♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Bob Balfe
Iowa +9.5 over PSU
Last year Iowa got a last second FG to win the game shocking PSU. I would not be surprised to see the same results today. Penn State has a young offensive line and have yet to be impressive on offense. The Nitnay Lions also have played three really weak teams and should be in for a rude awaking when they play this Iowa defense. PSU is not that good on offense just yet to be almost a double digit favorite. Take Iowa.
Dwayne Bryant
Texas Tech at Houston
Pick: Texas Tech -1
This game figures to be a shootout. Houston is getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers due to their upset win over Oklahoma State. Houston's offense returns eight starters and plenty of firepower. But that win only means that the Red Raiders will not look past Houston tonight. Tech coach Mike Leach had to replace a lot of offensive talent, but they're picking up right where they left off last season. New QB Taylor Potts connected on 46 of 62 pass attempts last week at Texas. He should find the going pretty easy against a terrible Houston defense. Surprisingly, Texas Tech's defense held Texas and Colt McCoy without an offensive TD in the first half last week. The Red Raiders are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five after Texas. Houston was just 1-6 SU in their last seven vs. the Big 12 before their upset win over Okie State. I like Texas Tech to win this shootout.
Vegas-Runner
Arkansas St. -2 vs Troy
These are the 2 best teams in the Conference and this game is more or less the Conf Championship for both of them...Troy is definitely the bigger name in this one, having been seen playing on ESPN over the last few years...That, and the fact Troy beat UAB has made the oddsmakers send this line out much lower than actual strength would dictate...
The Books opened the line up at PK and immediately got reprimanded by a few of the Outfits who stepped up and laid the PK...then came back and laid -1 & -1.5 as well...The bottom line here is that Arkansas St has the best RB in the conference, and Troy is weak against the run...and more importantly, Ark St will have a huge Home Field edge...and REVENGE on their minds...
I went ahead and laid -1 on this Bet early, and am currently trying to Confirm Betting them again and making this an Official 2* Bet on my Client Card...The only reason I have held off is because I have seen this line as high as -3, which is a Key Number that we would want to avoid...And more importantly, I'm interested to see if a "Buy-Back" order will come in for an attempt at a Middle by the Outfits...Because if they don't, then this one should become a Bet that's on my Client Card for Saturday.