Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 27

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
The Cubs look to follow up last night's 6-4 win over Milwaukee as they face a Brewers team that is 1-5 in Wily Peralta's last 6 starts versus Chicago. Chicago is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130)

Game 901-902: Miami at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 14.108; Washington (Strasburg) 16.559
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 903-904: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.653; San Francisco (Peavy) 14.409
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Under

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Lirano) 14.840; Cincinnati (Simon) 15.709
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+140); Over

Game 907-908: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 13.309; Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.887
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wada) 15.601; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.779
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Under

Game 911-912: St. Louis at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.774; Arizona (Miley) 15.129
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Butler) 15.308; LA Dodgers (Haren) 14.497
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: Baltimore at Toronto (4:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 14.889; Toronto (Happ) 16.419
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.773; Boston (Kelly) 14.209
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Colome) 15.773; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.218
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.339; Detroit (Lobstein) 14.441
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+165); Under

Game 923-924: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 16.477; White Sox (Danks) 14.980
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-175); Over

Game 925-926: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Samardzija) 14.309; Texas (Holland) 15.887
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.773; Seattle (Paxton) 16.134
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Houston at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Deduno) 13.887; NY Mets (Montero) 15.209
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155) 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-155); Over

Sam Martin

Iowa at Purdue
Play: Purdue

Not sure if the Boilermakers can win this game outright, but we do like their chances of staying close to Iowa here and at least having a chance at an outright win. Far too many points for Iowa to be laying here, especially considering the way they tend to play close games no matter who they face. Iowa has been listed as a double-digit favorite three times already this year - losing once outright and winning by just 8 and 4 points the other two games.

Hawkeyes did pull off an upset win last week against Pittsburgh (as a 6.5-point underdog), but if anything that only sets up a letdown spot this week against Purdue. Boilermakers and Hawkeyes are very similar in that their offenses and defenses don't really do anything great, but aren't horrible either. Even matchup with this game being played at Purdue and we expect the parity on these rosters to translate into an even match on the field. Points a premium as this one is decided by less than a touchdown either way!

Brad Diamond

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Play: Vanderbilt +17

The line here has been driven up by 6-7 points pending your outlet early in the week. The South Carolina loss has the Commies wilting, especially with personnel issues, while having the most roster spots for freshmen in the SEC. Vandy is ranked #106 in total offense and #107 in total defense. Now you can understand why Jimmy Franklin went to Penn State. I know, I know it was a great opportunity!

One insight indicates a huge TRIPLE REVENGE spot for Kentucky (0-3) after being smashed by a net 86 points over the last three years against two of those Franklin coached teams. They (Vandy) had decisive edges in yardage and TOP. KU is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS and show off a week of rest after losing to over rated Florida 36-30 in OT. Coach Stoops of Kentucky brought back 15 starters, possessing sufficient edges on offense and defense in comparison to the Commies. The Wildcats have not had a winning season (Rich Brooks) since 2009 (7-6). KU is 6-0 ATS vs. units with under a .333 winning mark. In the series the chalk has taken home the cash 5 straight in Vegas.

Sleepyj

Colorado St. +7

BC has been playing well and surprised the USC Trojans a few weeks back. Now they get to face Colo St. It may come to a surprise but Colo St. has a good team and very well can finish the year with 1 or 2 losses at the most. This is the one game that will test this team. QB Grayson for the Rams is a baller. He has 1000yds in 3 games and 8tds. Both of these teams are one dimensional for the most part. BC really only runs the ball. The QB for BC runs it most. That's a concern for me here. BC really got a USC club that was not ready nor focused. ColoSt. is a big time throwing team and runs a ton of plays per game. This will come down to who can execute the game plan. This line opened around 3 and has shot up to 7. BC is getting way to much love here because they beat USC. I don't agree with that move. I know Colo St. will come to defend the run and BC will struggle Vs. a high tempo passing team. Colo St can win this outright and i will be happy to grab +7 in this spot.

JR O'Donnell

Northwestern +11

Going with the Ugliest Dog on the board Saturday as the NW Wildcats will stay inside the # at PSU this Saturday @ University Park ... #'s on the game PSU in a let down spot off a pansie Mass last weekend... Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game & Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

Harry Bondi

KENTUCKY (-16) over Vanderbilt

Vandy (+22) managed to cover last week in a 48-34 loss to South Carolina, but, truth be told, the Gamecocks were in cruise control that entire game, as they came in off a season-saving win over Georgia the week before and had Missouri on deck. Kentucky had last week off and will relish the chance to hammer the Commodores, who have had the upper hand in the series and have cruised to three straight blowout wins. The tables are turned as the Wildcats get triple revenge.

Tony Stoffo

Texas State vs. Tulsa
Play: Texas State +3

Strong Sharp money move here as all the early smart money came pouring in on Texas State in this spot against Tulsa forcing the odds makers to make numerous adjustments on this opening number including going right thru the magic money of 4 - and as of this writing no buy back at all on the Golden Hurricanes. The Bobcats will dominate on both sides of the ball and are the very live dog here. Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Golden Hurricane are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Texas State the play here

Matt Fargo

North Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: North Carolina +14½

We made a bad call with North Carolina in this spot last week but we will come back with the Tar Heels again this week based on that and other factors. They got lambasted at East Carolina as they lost 70-41 while allowing a whopping 789 yards of offense to the Pirates which were both school records in futility. How can North Carolina recover from that? By playing a team that is coming off an absolutely devastating loss that's how. Clemson had a chance to upset the Seminoles but it fumbled at the Florida St. 14-yard line with 1:36 left in regulation which killed a chance for the winning score. Instead the Tigers lost in overtime and recovery from that will be difficult. The Tar Heels will be better off to recover and surprisingly, it is due to the regular week of preparation. The Tar Heels are now 0-3 under head coach Larry Fedora in its first game after a bye week. In those performances, they gave up 68 points to Georgia Tech in 2012 and 55 to East Carolina last year before the Pirates put even bigger numbers on them this time. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Additionally, North Carolina falls into a great situation as we play on road teams that are averaging between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against a team with a defense allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1992. Look for North Carolina to recover and keep this one much closer than most are thinking.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Bill Biles

Northwestern vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -10

Penn State is looking like a real threat in the Big 10. Now that they are bowl eligible and can play in the Big 10 Championship it is time to take them seriously. Penn State has a very talented QB in Hackenburg and a defense that is always tough to score on. Look for Penn State to improve to 5-0 and get a win in their Big 10 opener.

Andre Ramirez

North Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson -14

Last week was the Tar Heels' first real test of the new season, and they took a bad loss. They turned a tight game after the first quarter into a rout heading into the fourth by getting outscored 42-14 in the middle two quarters of play. North Carolina’s offense was at its prime, putting up 41 points.The problem is their defense was completely shredded by Pirates quarterback Shane Carden, who ended the day with 438 passing yards, and four touchdown throws. In their first two games, the Tar Heels gave up 29 points to Division IAA Liberty and 27 points to San Diego State in a tight four-point victory as 14.5-point home favorites. North Carolina is ranked 21st in the nation in scoring with an average of 42.7 points a game, and quarterback Marquise Williams has thrown for 551 yards while adding another 152 yards on the ground. However, it’s hard to see this defense keeping Clemson from scoring many points this Saturday night. The Tigers have to be kicking themselves after Saturday’s near miss, but there are plenty of positive takeaways from such a heartbreaking loss. Freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson took another step forward with 266 yards passing while completing 19 of 28 throws. He also ran for 30 yards and a score on 12 carries. The Tigers did an excellent job completing plays with 11 different players posting at least one reception in this game. The biggest plus had to be the Clemson defense, which kept the pressure on Seminoles backup quarterback Sean Maguire from the opening snap. This unit also held running back Karlos Williams to just 45 yards on 10 carries as Florida State attempted to fill the void created by a one-game suspension of starting quarterback Jameis Winston. The Clemson Tigers are just to much of a team for the Tar Heals. According to my analysis, I have Clemson winning 45-10. Lay the money on Clemson minus the 14 points, and get paid.

Andre Ramirez's Featured Package

Harry Bondi

MARYLAND (+4.5) over Indiana

We used Maryland (-1) over Syracuse, 34-20, as a newsletter winner last week and we’ll jump on the Terps again here as they get to face an Indiana team that will still be hungover from last Saturday’s milestone upset victory over Missouri as a 13-point underdog. The win was one of the biggest in school history and gave Indiana good reason to celebrate, so we expect a major letdown here. Remember, this is the same team that the week before the Missouri game allowed 45 points in a loss to Bowling Green as a seven-point favorite. The Hoosier defense has allowed more than 500 yards in total offense the last two weeks and now face a Terps' offense that is clicking on all cylinders, averaging 35 points per game, the highest in school history. Memorial Stadium has hardly been a home field advantage for Indiana, as it holds a below .500 record against the spread on this field the last 10 years and has lost 13 of its last 17 games here against Big 10 foes by more than 12 points per game.

Red Dog Sports

North Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: North Carolina +14.5

Clemson is off an overtime loss at Florida State. They led most of the game and gave up a long touchdown pass to tie the score. The Tigers had their chances without QB Jameis Winston on the field but the kicking game let them down as well as mistakes. One key mistake was a bad snap at the one yard line that backed them up over 10 yards.

Clemson lost QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins from last year. They do have some talent on board.

UNC is off a 70-42 loss at ECU in non-conference action. This is the opening ACC game for the Tar Heels and they should be focused after the beating they took last week to Shane Carden and company. UNC coach Larry Fedora has taken the blame and did not throw other coaches and players under the bus.

I expect Clemson to win by 7 to 14 points so take the +14.5.

Joe Gavazzi

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -17

Vandy finally got their first cover of the year, losing to S. Carolina (48-34) as 21 point home dog. That makes them 1-3 SU ATS, failing by a net 72 points to the line. With only 10 RS and a revamped coaching staff, it is doubtful the Coms stay competitive against a quickly improving Kentucky contingent. Wildcats are off to a promising 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS start, in which they have covered by 42 points. That includes a 36-30 triple OT loss at Florida, in which they were most competitive. The Wildcats, however, have had an extra week to prepare themselves emotionally for this contest. Kentucky QB Towles is the real deal at 305 PYPG. Look for him to dissect a Vandy secondary that is allowing 267/7.5 through the airways. With an offense averaging less than 20 PPG and only 284 YPG, it is unlikely that Vandy can answer.

Teddy Covers

Rice -9

Rice is absolutely an undervalued commodity right now following their 0-3 start. The defending C-USA champs have yet to take a major step down in class offensively, having faced Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill, Notre Dame’s Everett Golson and Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinicke in their first three contests; a trio of opposing quarterbacks who have NFL potential.

Southern Miss QB Nick Mullens does NOT have NFL potential, and that’s putting it mildly. Mullens is barely averaging six yards per pass attempt while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns through his first four contests. The Golden Eagles offense is anything but explosive, a team that hasn’t averaged even 20 points per game since 2011, held under 15 pgg so far here in 2014.

Don’t be fooled for a minute by the Golden Eagles 2-2 SU record. They’ve taken two major steps down in class against Alcorn State and Appalachian State, escaping with victories in two ‘down to the wire’ battles. That win over App State last week came via a missed extra point in the closing seconds, another game where the Southern Miss defense was unable to get a stop with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. And that win was only their second victory over a D1 opponent in the last three years – this program is still at a ‘bottom feeder’ level.

Rice is no bottom feeder. David Bailiff’s squad won ten games last year, including an upset win over Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. They have an elite (by C-USA standards) offensive line, an emerging QB talent in Driphus Jackson surrounded by plenty of skill position talent. The Owls defense is primed for a step up game, with their season on the line here, especially as they take a major step down in class. These two teams last played in 2012; a 27 point Owls victory. Expect a similar result this time around.