Wunderdog
Northwestern @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State -9.5
Looking back at the opener for Northwestern at Cal, it was considered a huge upset for the Bears as Northwestern was supposed to be a highly competitive team this year, while Cal had a long way to go. Then Northwestern went on to lose their next game at home to a graduation depleted Northern Illinois team, and it was time to rethink the Cal upset. Last week Northwestern was out gained by almost 100 yards at home vs. Western Illinois in a 24-7 win as Western Illinois turned the ball over four times to keep themselves from being competitive, but still allowed only 24 points. When you consider that Cal has allowed 33 points or more in each of their last 11 conference games and 49.6 points per game on average, the 31 Northwestern posted in that one screams trouble. Penn State has made a quick recovery from the scandal, and are off to a 4-0 start. They have allowed just 11 points per game, and Northwestern's offense will struggle in this one. The "Mildcats" have been pointspread losers in 12 of their last 13 games, 0-9 ATS on grass. All Penn State in this one.
Jeff Clement
Nevada vs. San Jose State
Play: Nevada -5
The Wolf Pack of Nevada is led by quarterback Cody Fajardo who has passed for 734 yards with 4 TD's and will look to find his favorite target receiver Jerico Richardson who has 19 receptions for 260 yards. Blake Jurich is quarterback for San Jose St. and has struggled with 4 INT's already this year. San Jose St. has lost 2 games by a combined 63 points while Nevada barely lost 35-28 to Arizona. Nevada is 4-1 ATS last 5 games and San Jose St. is 2-5 ATS last 7 games against teams with winning records. Nevada is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings. Prediction: NEV 31 SJST 23.
Marc Lawrence
Colorado at California
Pick: Colorado
Edges - Buffaloes: 4-0 ATS last four conference games; and 3-0 ATS last thee games as a double-digit dog. Bears: First time in three years they have been installed as double-digit favorites; Dykes 1-5-1 ATS career double-digit favorite when not off ATS win of 5 or more points. With the Bears still reeling off last week’s Hail Mary loss on the last play of the game at Arizona, and the Buffalos defense allowing 100 YPG less this season than last, we recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.
Joseph D'Amico
Duke vs. Miami
Play: Duke +7
Duke has won their L12 regular season games, including a 48-30 victory last November over Miami. The Blue Devils are holding opponents to a mere 11.5 PPG while posting an average of 43.5 PPG. Miami played two quality squads and got thumped by both. Frosh QB, Brad Kaaya has 10 TD's but his 7 INT's show his immaturity. Duke's play-caller, Senior, Anthony Boone is far superior with 876 YP and a 7/1 TC/INT ratio. RB, Shaun Wilson (404 YR, 4 TD's, with a 14.4 YPC average) is a monster. This 1-2 punch will be enough to keep the Hurricane "O" on the sidelines. The 'Canes are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played at home, 1-7 ATS their L8 Conference games, and 2-10 ATS their L12 overall. The Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS their L8 road games, 7-1 ATS their L8 Conference games, and 10-2-1 ATS their L13 overall.
Freddy Wills
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Arkansas +10
In Arkansas comes into this game with 13 straight SEC losses but are looking for their first one in over a year. This game is actually being played in the Dallas Cowboys Stadium on neutral turf.
For Arkansas they're going to try to control the clock in run the ball with their power running game. They've ran the ball 68% of the time this season while a van is ranked 32nd in run defense they just got done allowing 240 yards to Rice who runs the ball 60% of the time. I expect Arkansas to have success running the ball as they averaged over 6 yards per carry against Arkansas last year. The difference and the reason why I don't Arkansas to cover the spread is the fact that Arkansas is not just a running team like everyone is talking about.
Quarterback Brandon Allen has been very good this year with eight touchdown passes to one interception he's completing over 60% of his passes and he's very capable of hitting targets down field. I think he's very underrated and and has a lot to prove in 2014. Many people didn't know but Allen was for all of 2013 season which led to a disappointing year for him. I'll take the points with the under rated Razorbacks going against the over hyped A&M squad.
River City Sharps
Duke +7
When you ask people who owns the second longest regular season winning streak in FBS football behind Florida State, our guess is that you will get lots of answers before getting the right one…the Duke Blue Devils. Duke HC David Cutcliffe has changed the culture of the program in Durham and they look to take another step forward Saturday night when they take on the Miami Hurricanes. While there are certainly some folks that have caught on to the talent upgrades at Duke, we think the lines makers are still behind the times in valuing this team and this program. QB Anthony Boone is 14-0 as a starter in the regular season and is enjoying another outstanding year for the Blue Devils. They have also received a nice boost in the running games from freshman Shaun Wilson, who is leading FBS schools with over 14 yards per carry. That balance may be a tough matchup for the Hurricanes, who have been really vulnerable against the run. Last week, Nebraska gashed the Canes defense for 343 rushing yards and we expect to see more of the same from Duke Saturday night. The best evidence last Vegas hasn’t caught up to Duke yet is the fact that the Blue Devils are 14-4 ATS over the past two seasons. While Miami QB Brad Kaaya continues to improve for the Canes, we think this is an underrated Duke defensive front that will pressure the QB, as seen from their 10 team sacks already this season. Keep in mind that the Blue Devils have also been very comfortable on the road, winning six consecutive road games with their last road loss being in November, 2012 to Georgia Tech! This line has seen some really interesting movement (starting to sound like a broken record…seems like we are seeing these kind of moves every week!) Either way, number opened at Miami -6, was bet down to as low as -3.5, and currently has shot back up to Miami -7. This is the time we are swooping in to grab the points as we believe you are going to see some syndicates push this line down closer to kick. This is the best line we are going to get, time to fire!
Tom Stryker
Temple vs. Connecticut
Play: Temple -5½
Don't think for a second that Temple has forgotten about this revenge battle. Last year, the Owls owned a 21-0 halftime advantage over the Huskies and lost outright 28-21. Matched up against a pedestrian UConn offensive attack, head coach Matt Rhule's men will be in control from start-to-finish.
A quick look at the numbers involved in this American Athletic Conference game displays Temple's huge advantage. Connecticut is having serious trouble moving the football. The Huskies are averaging only 16.0 points and 253.3 total yards per game including an average of just 64.3 yards per game on the ground. Defensively, the Owls are holding opponents to an average of 12.7 points and 296.0 yards per game (107.0 through the air). Talk about a major mismatch!
There are technical reasons to like the visitor in the AAC war too. UConn is a weak 14-27 SU and 13-22-3 ATS in its last 41 games including a woeful 2-15 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in this set tackling a foe that hits the field off a straight up win. On the flip side, Temple has been a solid investment on foreign soil posting a respectable 30-16 ATS record in its last 46 lined road games. In this role playing without rest and knocking helmets with a foe that arrives off a straight up loss, the Owls are definitely worth a hoot notching a nearly perfect 12-1 ATS record.
The Owls picked up the largest win in school history with their 59-0 whitewash of Delaware State last Saturday. With momentum on their side and revenge motivation present, Coach Rhule's troops will ring up another impressive victory. Take Temple.
EZWINNERS
Syracuse +9.5
I think there is a lot of value in this line. Notre Dame appears to be a dominate team, but the Irish have many flaws. Quarterback Everett Golson is very good, but his offensive supporting cast is average at best. The Irish don't have a dominate running back and their receive corps are thin. The Irish have beaten three bad teams to open up the season with wins over Rice, Michigan and Purdue, but last week even the Boilermakers exposed some weaknesses in this Irish team. Syracuse comes into this game off of a loss to Maryland, but it was one of those misleading losses as the Orange were actually the team that dominated the stats. Syracuse has a good quarterback in Terrel Hunt and they have a very solid, veteran offensive line that does an excellent job of protecting the quarterback. Notre Dame has a big game with Stanford up next week while the Irish will have Syracuse's full attention. Take the points.
Wisconsin -34
The Badgers rushing attack is going to be way too much for South Florida to handle. Wisconsin rolled up an amazing 644 yards last week against Bowling Green and while I don't expect them to put up those kind of number they will wear this Bulls defense out by the end of the game. South Florida's offense is very bad. Quarterback Mike White is completing less than 40% of his passes and the Bulls only average 17 points per game. The Wisconsin defense has also held all three of its opponents to season low yardage totals this year so things won't get any easier this week for the Bulls. South Florida's inability to sustain drives will doom their defense against the physical Wisconsin rushing attack. Lay the wood with the Badgers.
Michigan -13
Michigan is coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Utah last week, but I think Minnesota is the perfect opponent this week to get that bad taste out of their mouth. The Gophers starting quarterback Mitch Leidner hasn't been able to do much this week in practice with his injuries which means that backup Chris Streveler will most likely be under center. The Gophers only attempted one pass last week with Streveler in the game and they will want to rely heavily on the running game this week which plays right into the strength of the Michigan defense. The Wolverines have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, but I expect a much better effort this week after a three point performance against Utah last Saturday. Lay the points.
Michael Alexander
Northwestern vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -11
Penn State comes into this one with a tough run defense as they all a total of 175 yards per game. They have had success versus Northwestern as well as they had scored more than 32 points in their last 6 games against them. Northwestern is on a 1-10 ATS run. They did snap a 6-game slide versus Western Illinois, but had a 376-283 yard deficit
Jim Feist
Stanford at Washington
Pick: Washington
Washington is 4-0 but a home dog to a run-oriented Stanford squad. The Stanford Cardinal already have one loss in the Pac-12 and can't afford another. They play their first road game of the year here. The Cardinal is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. This is the 4th straight home game for Washington and the Huskies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. New coach Chris Petersen has concentrated on running the ball (239.3 YPG, ranked 27th). Sophomore quarterback Cyler Miles has been steady (153 rating) in the last three games, so grab the home dog.
Jimmy Boyd
Georgia Bulldogs -17
The only thing that kept this from being a premium play is that this is a lot of points to lay in an SEC game, but I'm confident that Georgia is capable of winning here by more than 17. The loss at South Carolina really put a damper in the Bulldogs hopes of making the 4-team playoff, but it's still a possibility if they can win the SEC. Something I believe is still very much alive.
You have to like how the Bulldogs responded to that loss to the Gamecocks as they came out an laid a number on Troy in a 66-0 beating. With an easy home game against Vanderbilt on deck and the threat of opening up conference play at 0-2, I look for Georgia to be all business in this one.
Tennessee did play a respectable game at Oklahoma in a 24-point loss that could have been a lot closer had they not thrown an interception in the endzone that was returned 100 yards for a score. However, they were clearly outmatched in terms of talent and as much respect as the Sooners are getting I believe Georgia is a better team. The Bulldogs have played two highly respected opponents in Clemson and South Carolina, which is a good indicator that their numbers are legit and that's impressive when you consider Georgia is averaging 7.7 yards/rush and giving up just 2.9 yards/carry.
Sure the Volunteers were able to keep it close last year at home against the Bulldogs in a heartbreaking 31-34 overtime loss, but Georgia was without Todd Gurley and were decimated in that game by injuries. Gurley is in my opinion the best running back in the country. If Oklahoma can average 4.3 yards/carry on the ground, Gurley and the Bulldogs are more than capable of coming close to their 7.7 average.
There's a big time system in favor of the Bulldogs based on their ability to run and Tennessee's struggles on the ground. Home favorites who are averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game against an opponent that's only averaging between 100-140 rushing yards/game are 45-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Bulldogs.
Tony George
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Play: Illinois +21½
This game here is a lesson and scenario in scheduling spots. If you take the NCAA games this time of year and the lines presented to you at face value and do not look at the schedule of the team you want to play, especially a favorite of 7 or more points, then you will lose more than you win. This game here is a perfect example of that, so I will make it a free play and explain the situation.
Nebraska is clearly the better team, no doubt a Top 15 team in the nation. The Husker run game and depth at RB is 1 and 2 with Georgia’s as the best and most depth filled RB unit in college football. The Huskers are undefeated and they are playing a night game in Lincoln in front of another rabid sellout crowd. LOOK DEEPER – The Huskers are off a monster win last week against hated Miami, a game I was personally at. A record crowd in Lincoln, lots of celebration before and after the game and a physical hard fought 4 quarter battle with tons of emotion. Now 3-1 Illinois comes to town as a 20+ point dog in what should be an easy win. WAIT A MINUTE!
Nebraska has their biggest game of the season and perhaps the entire year next week at East Lansing against Michigan State! That game is likely for the division title to go play in the Big 10 title game, although Wisconsin may have something to say about that, this surely gives one team a HUGE leg up in the division title. So Huskers off a bio emotional win, and have a monster game on deck and laying 20+ to an also ran. SANDWICH GAME – DANGEROUS SPOT TO LAY A HUGE NUMBER!
Illinois has Wes Lundt at QB, and Okie State transfer that has a very good arm, and good throwing QB’s give the Huskers fits. The frosh at Miami last week was quite successful against the Huskers, and Lundt is 3 times better than him, and I do expect Illinois to score plenty through the air. Nebraska will keep it vanilla, try not to get any key players hurt and do enough to win but rest starters in prep for next week, especially all world RB Abdullah. With Illinois’s ability to put up yards in the passing game that has backdoor cover written all over it, and again, QB Lundt for Illinois is no joke and has had tons of stats in the fourth quarter this year that are impressive.
Classic Sandwich scheduling Spot – get over 3 TDS off the fall number of 21 to!
Carolina Sports
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Play: Tennessee +17½
Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O-U) plays at No. 22 Georgia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O-U) and it can be seen on ESPN. The Vols are a young team that will be very good by the end of the year as they have as many as 22 Freshman this year. They are struggling offensively this year but do have some emerging talent on that side of the ball. The Vols are only avg 4.6-ypp vs teams that combine to allow 4.7-ypp. The defense is playing well as they are only allowing 5.0-ypp vs teams that combine to avg 5.5-ypp. They will need a big game from the defense as Georgia is an offensive machine.
The Bulldogs bounced back big last week with a 66-0 win over hapless Troy after losing at South Carolina in their second game. Georgia is averaging 48.7-ppg and 7.5-ypp. The running game led by Todd Gurley is avg 7.7-ypr! That is incredible! The Vols will have their hands full stopping the run but that is their specialty so far this year as they have only allowed 3.9-ypr.
The money on this game is pretty much split as 52% are on the Dogs in this one. Tennessee is 20-5 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Our ratings have Georgia -21 in this one and compuer is calling for a 22-point Georgia win. We are going against the computer and our ratings as Richt is 10-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of Georgia. Georgia wins but the Vols get the cover.
Dave Price
Texas -12
Texas let one get away versus UCLA last time out and went into its bye week 1-2. That's a long time for a loss to fester, and I expect the Longhorns to do something about it here. Losing is unacceptable for Charlie Strong, and I'm confident he'll have his troops ready to go against a Kansas squad with inferior talent. Teams headed up by Strong are 12-3 ATS all-time following one or more consecutive straight up losses. In addition, his teams are 9-1 ATS following a stretch of two losses in three games. The Jayhawks defeated Central Michigan last Saturday, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. Kansas has had no luck versus Texas, going 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The average score for these contests was 43-14. The five home losses during this stretch have even carried an average score of 34-16.
Chip Chirimbes
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -13
This one should be titled the “You have got to be kidding me, Game of the Week.” Here are the Michigan Wolverines with the alumni screaming for Brady Hoke's hide and they are a double-digit conference favorite. Last year when these two met in Michigan the Wolverines were 18.5 point favorites and they ponded Minnesota 42-13 as they have won three straight conference openers by a combined 145-13. Finally, not only is the favorite 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings but the Gophers are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings.