Alex Smart
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Over 71½
Going over the Total here might seem like a square play and admittedly the number is a little higher than I had hoped for, but believe me when I say, this number is still very beatable. With two very efficient offensive units going head to head , and explosive scorefest must be expected. The Arkansas offense is the third most efficient in the nation with the second highest conversion rate. The Hogs love to run the ball and they do it well behind a an array of talent. The Razorbacks own the No. 1 most efficient rushing offense and run it aggressively and at a high tempo. Despite of A&Ms upgraded D, Im betting the Hogs will run wild. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is a fast paced attack ( ranked 9th in the nation for pace) and are extremely efficient and rank 4th in rush and 5th passing and no 4 in red zone conversion ratio. Needless to say, if in gear the Aggies will slice and dice the Razorbacks 93 ranked defense. Both teams have offensive weapons and both will do what they do best, and that is score. Everything points to a high scoring affair that might see the scoreboard break down from over use.
Doug Upstone
Colorado vs. California
Play: California -14
Play On home favorites like California, an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards a game versus an opponent like Colorado, a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG allowed), after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Defensive teams like the Buffaloes have not enjoyed much success slowing down opposing teams like the Bears in this situation, losing by an average of 27.1 PPG. This college football system is a stellar 27-6, 81.6 percent.
Mike Anthony
Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts
Play: Bowling Green -4.5
Bowling Green obviously cannot stop anyone from moving the ball, however they want, let alone stop them from scoring, giving up 44/gm so far on the season. But, they actually have a tolerable passing game with James Knapke stepping in and Travis Greene can run the ball tough enough. Massachusetts has absolutely no running game, so they will have to rely on moving the ball in the air with Blake Frohnapfel (49.6%) and if that doesnt work, they are doomed. And so it is what it is. Massachusetts is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games Bowling Green wins giving the points by double digits here on the road.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Kansas Under 41.5: The Longhorns have really become a conservative offensive squad and that is mainly due to not have David Ash at QB. The longhorns do not mind playing conservative on offense, because they have a defense that will shut most teams down this year. The Longhorns had their issues vs BYU, but did hold UCLA to just 20 points, and remember that on Thursday night that UCLA offense hung 62 points on Arizona State. The Jayhawks are a very poor offensive team that has aveaged just 20.3 ppg thus far and they are also are a run based offense that will help chew up clock in this one. They are also a conservative team and can slow down a very mediocre Texas offense here. Both teams should run allot and both defenses should play well as this one is played in the lower 30s at best here.
Arkansas +9.5 over TEXAS A&M: he Hogs are a much improved team this year, especially on offense, where they have averaged 48.8 ppg thus far, after putting up just 21 ppg last year. Even though they did average just 21 ppg last year they did hit Texas A&M for 33 points, which was their 2nd highest point total of the season. The Aggie defense looks better this year, but still hasn't really been tested. They were in their opener vs South Carolina and the Gamecocks did put up 28 points on them in that game, but since then they took on Lamar, Rice and the high school offense of SMU. A&M will be tested in this one. The Hogs average 324 ypg on the ground and that will help keep the Aggie offense on the sideline and not give them enough chances to make this a rout. I don't think it will be a rout anyway. The Hogs just have too much fire power for the Aggies to run away with this one. Arkansas is a dangerous team this year and the Aggies will find out just how dangerous with a game that will go down to the wire.
BEST OF THE REST
TCU/ SMU Under 48.5: This SMU offense is a mess and now will take on a very good TCU defense that has allowed just 10.5 ppg. Granted, the offenses they have played have not been good at all, but that what they will face here as well. The SMU offense has scored just 13 points in 3 games so far. Defensively the Mustangs are not good at all, but the TCU offense is all that great either and they are not the type of team to run up the score once they jump out to a big lead. 35-3 looks about right for this one, but don’t be surprised if you see something like 35-0 either as this SMU offense is just that bad.
DAVE COKIN
NOTRE DAME AT SYRACUSE
PLAY: SYRACUSE +9.5
I’m always on the lookout for what I feel are misleading results. These are games where the stat profile clearly points to one side having won the game, but the final score ends up getting flipped. It’s by no means an automatic that I’ll be on or against a team off one of these games the next week, but it’s definitely an attention getter as I start to break down that next contest.
Syracuse is off a game that fits this category. The Orange basically blew Maryland out on the stat sheet last week. But they sure didn’t do so on the scoreboard, as the Terrapins actually won the game easily. Syracuse put up some big numbers in the loss. Unfortunately, they either couldn’t finish off their drives, or made a mistake at the worst possible moment, and the result was a frustrating loss.
The Orange cannot afford to make those errors again today as they’re stepping up in class to face a good Notre Dame team. The Irish aren’t what I’d call under the radar, as that’s basically an impossibility for any Notre Dame team. QB Everett Golson has looked terrific in leading the Irish to three straight wins, and it looks to me as though a double digit win campaign is a definite possibility for Notre Dame.
But I also think the Irish could end up in some close games, and this looks as though it could be one of those types. I’m not sold on the Notre Dame running game and I think Golson is only at his best in a balanced attack. If the Irish have to throw 35-40 times, it’s probably not a good thing.
That could be the case here, as I’m impressed with Syracuse’s rush defense. And that’s the key to today’s game from this vantage point. Syracuse needs to run it reasonable well and continue to limit the opposition in that area. The data says they’re entirely capable of doing exactly that, and if that’s the case we’ve got a game that could well go right down to the last possession.
I thought the early number on this game was considerably higher than it ought to have been. Apparently, some respected syndicates and pro bettors felt the same way as the Orange were hit pretty hard early in the week. The action has leveled off since but this number is still in the playable zone, albeit with the optimum price long gone.
Without going into complete detail, this game fits a defensive dog formula that I’ve played with success over the years. I also like the fact that we have what I call a misleading result from last week that dictates a play this week under the right conditions. I don’t think this is a great money line risk, but taking close to doubles with Syracuse is what I believe to be a decent gamble.
SPORTS WAGERS
Missouri +5½ over SOUTH CAROLINA
Both the Tigers of Missouri and Gamecocks of South Carolina enter this contest on rather low notes. Despite a win against Vanderbilt, South Carolina escaped Nashville with a tickle of embarrassment in their mouth, surrendering two return touchdowns against a maligned Vanderbilt team that entered the game as a 20-point pup in what Gamecocks Coach Steve Spurrier called the worst win of his career. Missouri has a different tale to tell, a team whose value was inflated after piecing together blowout wins against Toledo and UCF, before falling to Indiana at home, last Saturday. We suggested it was a look-ahead game for the Tigers and they were in a vulnerable spot. Missouri was overpriced against Indiana last week.
Steve Spurrier's bunch received overwhelming enthusiastic appeal from the public after defeating the Bulldogs of Georgia at home as a six-point underdog. Overlooked is the fact that South Carolina has surrendered more than 34 points in three of its four games and they were dissected by a Texas A&M team that plays a very similar style of spread football to that of their former Big 12 counterparts, Missouri. Missouri QB Maty Mauk and his bevy of weapons figures to be the next offense to light up the worst defense of the Spurrier era. The Gamecocks come into this one as the 13th ranked team in the nation, which is bordering on ludicrous because South Carolina isn’t close to being a top-15 outfit. When you wager on ranked versus unranked you are almost always going to pay a premium to do so and that seldom comes recommended. After Missouri's crushing defeat and the hands of the Hoosiers last week, its luster has tarnished a bit and that provides us with this outstanding opportunity to cash in on them. We’re calling the upset and will play Missouri both on the point-spread and the money line.
N.C. STATE +18½ over Florida State
The Seminoles are no strangers to the woes that accompany visitors that wish to take on the Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. North Carolina State has been impressive in the opening stages of their 2014-15 campaign. Transfer quarterback Jacoby Brisset has been brilliant anchoring the N.C. State offense and few have taken in to consideration that Brisset has thrown for 1000 yards, 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception in four games while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. Brisset is mobile and accurate and is the exact breed of quarterback that can give Florida State's defense fits. This was best indicated in Florida State's overtime escape against rival Clemson last week, when Deshaun Watson proved to be an elementary driving force for the Tigers and an outright menace for the ‘Noles. The Wolfpack has upset Florida State at home in the previous two hosted engagements. In fact, that is NC State's modus operandi in general, as they enjoy shocking the world from the comfort of their own field.
It cannot be disregarded that Florida State was without the services of their quarterback Jameis Winston, a returning Heisman winner and catalyst of Florida State's 2013-14 national championship run when they ran into trouble against Clemson last week. However, opposing teams may have finally learned from watching the game last week, that Florida State does indeed have some weaknesses that can be exploited. Furthermore, Florida State's defense indicated it needed improvement after they surrendered 31 points to Oklahoma State in their opening game. This unit currently gives up an average of 170 rushing yards per game and an average of 360 total yards per game. All year the ‘Noles have had lofty spreads to cover and have yet to do so this season. The Noles were a -18 against Oklahoma State and barely escaped them. Florida State could not even hit its stride against Citadel as a 58-point favorite. Granted, that is a meteoric number but Florida State didn't even cover half of that line, winning by just 25. The morale of the story is that Florida State continues to be overpriced weekly and we see nothing different about the price on them this week.
IOWA STATE +22 over Baylor
The pesky Cyclones of Iowa State enter as perhaps the most balanced team in the Big-10 on both sides of the football, featuring a Heisman candidate in Bryce Petty and a slew of talent surrounding the veteran signal caller. What we like about the Cyclones is their ability to stay close when it matters most. This season and historically, the Cyclones have worn one hat beautifully and that is the hat of the spoiler. College fans recall the endeavor of Iowa State in upsetting an undefeated and topped rank Oklahoma State in Ames just a few years ago. Iowa State was responsible for similar treachery against Nebraska just a few years before that and this year, ISU defeated in-state-rival Iowa on a late field goal, on their hated foe's field.
Baylor is academic in their style of play, they simply score points and they’re relentless in their attack. In fact, the Bears are averaging a sick 688 yards per game, not to mention 59 points per game. That’s fantastic, it really is and they’re a fun team to watch but when you combine everything about the Bears, that being a team that is ranked #7 in the country with a high octane offense that is putting up record shattering numbers, what you get is an extremely overpriced team spotting significant road points. Throw in the fact that Baylor absolutely whacked these Cyclones last year by a score of 71-7 and the public will have no problem spotting these points. Let us remind you however, that Baylor and its high powered offense has scored a combined 31 points at Iowa State the past two visits and that the home team has won five straight in this series. Sure, the Cyclones could get whacked again but the bottom line here is that by backing the “Greatest Show on Earth”, you would be paying a serious premium to do so and that’s something we’ll go against almost every time. With the Bears having played three cupcakes, this is a great scenario to sell high in them against a Cyclones’ squad that is notorious for wrecking the party in their own backyard. After last year’s 71-7 thumping and with a game against Texas on deck, Baylor may also make the mistake of taking this team lightly.
Memphis +21 over OLE MISS
The 2-1 Tigers travel to Oxford, Mississippi to take on the Ole Miss Rebels in a non-conference contest that figures to provide further clarity in to the ability of both teams. Coach Hugh Freeze has his Rebels off to a spectacular 3-0 start with wins over Boise State, Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Lafayette. Ole Miss has run through opponents in posting a 3-0 record against the spread also. Over the last three weeks, Mississippi's lines have evolved from being a 9½-point favorite against BSU, to a 17½-point favorite against Vanderbilt and finally to a 26½-point favorite against Louisiana. The Rebels have passed each test with flying colors and now it’s time to sell high on the #10th ranked team in the country.
The Tigers are a perpetual pest and have been a perfect 3-0 in covering spreads as well. Forgetting the academic analysis, this is the same Tigers team that lost by merely a touchdown to a vaunted UCLA team on the road. Memphis' efforts were applauded, putting up 35 points on what was considered one of the nation's best defenses coming into the season. Entering the UCLA affair, Memphis was a 22-point underdog and covered marvelously. Indeed, Mississippi is the more talented team and they have playmakers on both sides of the ball, including safety Cody Prewitt, receiver Laquan Treadwell and their seasoned quarterback Bo Wallace. However, Memphis has a few tricks up their sleeve, themselves. The Tigers are averaging 44.7 points per game and have a balanced attack featuring quarterback Paxton Lynch, wide receiver Keiwone Malone and running back Doroland Dorceus, who has already found pay dirt four times on the year. Memphis is a talented team that is not getting any credit because of its abysmal records over the last few seasons. This is not the same team Memphis team as those previous squads. This edition of the Tigers can slow this game down by controlling the clock and limiting the Rebels possessions. We once again find value on playing an undervalued unranked team going up against a highly ranked team that has a much more important home game against #3 Alabama on deck next week.
Tony Karpinski
South Florida vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -34
South Florida has gotten some wins against much inferior schools. Beating Western Carolina isn't going to be an acre within to playing a team like Wisconsin. They have no QB play, which only puts up 141 in the air a game. Wisconsin only has to load up the box to keep RB Marlon Mack in check for South Florida, as he is their only legit weapon. The Badgers ground game is dominant, and has shown that this season putting up almost 8/ carry. They should force some turnovers, against a team that turns it over a lot. Wisconsin is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home and i look for Wisky to roll and win by 44 here with the early kickoff on Saturday.
Brandon Shively
Washington State vs. Utah
Play: Washington State +14
I like Washington State in this game as I feel they are a valuable underdog and it can also be a play against Utah as they are in a 'let-down' spot after coming up with a big underdog win at Michigan last week. This line opened up at Utah -10 and now has jumped 3.5-4 points to Utah -14, and I feel this is great spot to bet against the move.
Looking closer at Utah's game last week, Michigan held them to 286 yards of offense as they got outgained by 22 yards. While Utah is 3-0 SU on the season, I feel the 'public' is riding high on them, and I expect a less than 100% effort tonight as they have a revenge game on deck vs. UCLA on deck followed by 3 more revengers.
Last season, Washington State put up 578 yards of total offense against the Utes and Mike Leach has his 'Air Raid' offense clicking on all cylinders this season as QB Halliday has thrown for 16 TD and 7 receivers have at least 14 receptions or more.
Washington State played Oregon tough last week only losing by a touchdown and playing them basically dead even 'in-the-stats' at 501-499. I feel anytime we are getting double digits with an offense that can move the ball and score with ease, then we have a great chance of covering the spread. If Utah makes a couple turnovers, then Washington State will be right in the thick of this game heading into the 4th quarter. QB Wilson for Utah is a good quarterback but he does make poor decisions sometimes just because of his enthusiasm as we saw in the Michigan game and he will also make some side-arm throws as Washington State could come up with some batted balls at the line of scrimmage or an interception.
The Utah defense is primarily built to stop the run and force teams to throw the ball which does nothing to help stop the passing game of Washington State. I do not think their cornerbacks are good enough and Washington State's offense should have an advantage in this game. Washington State needs this win tonight to keep their hope of going to a bowl game alive. After getting beat 49-6 last time in 2012 when playing in Salt Lake City, I am looking for an inspired effort in this game. I will also note that after that bad beating in 2012, HC Mike Leach was so infuriated that he made all of his offensive lineman answer to the media. Listen, these kids are going to play their hearts out today for their coach as they don't' want to have to go through that again. The Washington defense has toughened up as well after a poor start vs. Rutgers this season, and I look for them to make some stops and get Utah off the field in this game. Let's take the double digits and run with it in this game
Rob Vinciletti
Rice vs. Southern Miss
Play: Rice -8
The Owls are off a tough home loss in Overtime against an under rated Old Dominion team. Now they get a much easier task playing at Souther Mississippi. Rice stayed in the game the whole way at Texas A@M and have won and covered 3 of the last 4 in the series vs the Golden Eagles. Bowl teams that are 0-3 to the spread have won and covered 8 of 11 times. Rice has played a tough schedule considering they also played Notre Dame. The Golden Eagles were balls to the wall here last week to beat Appalachian St. They have lost 8 of the last 9 vs teams under .500 and have failed to cover 20 of the last 28 on Saturday. With Rice a solid 4-1 ats on the road when the total is 56.5 to 63 we will look their way today.
Bruce Marshall
Oregon State at USC
Pick: Oregon State
Revenge is in the air for OSU from a couple of different angles in tonight's game at the Coliseum vs. Southern Cal. First of all, the Beavers haven't beaten the Trojans in L.A. since Dwight Eisenhower was in the White House (1960). There's payback from last year's 31-14 loss at Corvallis when OSU was victimized by many big plays. And the Beavers have not forgotten how Trojan HC Steve Sarkisian, then at Washington, ran up a 69-27 score last season in Corvallis. OSU looks better able to deal with matters this season as its defense has cut almost 1.5 yards from its opponent per rush average, and the Trojans' play-sequencing on offense has left a bit to be desired since the opening win vs. Fresno. If Beaver QB Sean Mannion has time to throw, this one stays close in L.A.
Kyle Hunter
Duke vs. Miami
Play: Duke +7
The Miami Hurricanes have some star players on their team, but they also have some major weaknesses. Miami has a freshman quarterback that has shown he is careless with the football. Those interceptions and fumbles are going to hurt in a close game. Miami's defense was torched last week by a one-dimensional Nebraska Cornhuskers offense. Duke's offense hasn't lost a bit since last year when they rolled up 543 yards against Miami in a 48-30 win. David Cutcliffe is a very underrated coach, and I'd take him any day over Al Golden who doesn't seem to get his teams ready for big games. Duke has a veteran team that takes care of the ball. The Blue Devils have a real shot to win this game outright, so I definitely like them at plus 7.
Steve Merril
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Arkansas +10
Texas A&M opened as a 13.5-point home favorite in some locations, and the initial sharp money came in heavy on Arkansas early in the week, driving this line down to 8.5 in some spots. Buyback has since come in on Texas A&M and +10 might start appearing again by Saturday afternoon. Arkansas is remembered for last year’s miserable 3-9 SU season, so public bettors are reluctant to back the Razorbacks, especially in this game against #7 Texas A&M who is known for their high-scoring offense. The Aggies have won their four games by a combined score of 221-47 this season, so the betting public will be all over the Aggies.
However, the sharp bettors realize Arkansas will have a big rushing edge in this game, and they should be able to keep the potent Texas A&M offense off the field, allowing this game to stay close throughout. Arkansas has actually been the more impressive offensive team this season when factoring in their more difficult schedule of opponents faced. The Razorbacks are averaging 49 points per game and 7.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 36 ppg and 6.1 yppl). Meanwhile, Texas A&M has averaged 55 points per game and 8.1 yards per play (versus weaker defensive opponents that allow 50 ppg and 7.5 yppl).
Black Widow
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -17½
The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in all of college football this season. They have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS with blowout wins over Tennessee-Martin (59-14) as a 21.5-point favorite and Ohio (20-3) as a 13-point favorite. However, it was their 30-36 overtime loss to Florida on the road that really proved this team is for real. Vanderbilt (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is the worst team in the SEC this season by a wide margin. Losses to Temple (7-37) and Ole Miss (3-41) as well as a narrow 34-31 home win over UMass as a 16.5-point favorite prove that. I look for the Wildcats to roll at home here, especially since they are coming off a bye and can't afford a letdown if they want to get back to a bowl game.
Steve Janus
North Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: North Carolina +15½
I believe there's been a huge over reaction to North Carolina's ugly loss last week to East Carolina, creating exceptional value here on the Tar Heels as a 15.5-point underdog. There's no doubt Clemson is the better team, but the Tigers are going to find it difficult to play up to their potential after laying it all on the line last week against their hated ACC rivals Florida State.
While Clemson is in for a major letdown, we should get one of North Carolina's best efforts of the entire season after their performance last week against the Pirates. This is a talented Tar Heels team. One that many experts picked to win the ACC Coastal.
Those that think the Tigers are going to walk in here and just annihilate North Carolina, may want to take a look back to last year and what transpired the following game after Clemson played Florida State. The Tigers took on a Maryland team that was missing several key players and wound up winning by a final of just 40-27 as a 17-point favorite. That Terrapins team was in such bad shape that had these two teams played any other week I think Clemson would have won by 30-points. Keep in mind that the previous week Maryland had lost 10-34 at Wake Forest as a 4-point favorite, providing us with almost an identical scenario here with North Carolina.
One thing North Carolina has been able to do is bounce back from a loss. The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS following defeat and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. This is such a difficult spot for Clemson that I don't think it's out of the question that North Carolina could win this game outright.
Key System - Teams who are averaging 4.8 to 5.6 yards/play after allowing 525 or more total yards in each of their last 2 games against an opponent who is only giving up 4.2 to 4.8 yards/play are 23-4 (85%) ATS since 1992.
Scott Spreitzer
Duke vs. Miami
Play: Duke +7
Miami is fresh off a pounding in the trenches, getting crushed by Nebraska's offensive line. The 'Canes gave up 343 yards rushing last weekend on 6.4 yards per carry. They have looked worn down in the second half in their two step-up games against Louisville and Nebraska. In fact, toss aside a late, meaningless TD with less than one minute to go in the game in Lincoln, and Miami has been out-scored 41-13 after halftime in those two games, both double-digit losses. Duke has the ground game to control the flow of this contest and eventually wear on Miami over the final 15 minutes of game time. The Blue Devils are averaging over 260 yards rushing per game and while Miami will be their toughest test yet to date, Duke proved to themselves they could do it last season, rushing for 358 yards on 6.9 yards per carry, en route to a 17-0 fourth quarter advantage and a 48-30 win. Duke enters on a 10-2-1 ATS conference run, while the Hurricanes have covered just 2 of their last 12 games, overall. I believe we're in for more of the same. I'm taking the points with Duke.