Jesse Schule
Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Play: Cincinnati +17½
It didn't take long for the public to jump back on the Ohio State bandwagon. After the Buckeyes failed to impress against Navy in their opener, they lost outright to Virginia Tech following week. But a 66-0 blowout win over Kent State has bettors backing the Buckeyes once again. They opened as a -13 point favorite at home versus Cincinnati, which would be a fair number in my opinion. Public money has since pushed the line up to -17.5, and I think that's asking too much of a Buckeyes team that isn't as strong as it was last year.
Cincinnati is undefeated, with wins over Toledo and Miami (OH). Sophomore QB Gunner Kiel has burst onto the scene throwing for 689 yards and 10 TDs in the first two starts of his college football career. He's face an OSU defense that surrendered 52 points against Navy and VT in it's first two games of the season.
Cincy's senior RB Hosey Williams is averaging six yards per carry through the first two games of the season, and he ran for over 100 yards in the win over the Rockets. He may be able to find some holes in a Buckeyes defense that surrendered 495 yards on the ground in it's first two games.
The Bearcats won nine games last year, and they only faced one ranked opponent. They lost in overtime by a score of 31-24 to the Louisville Cardinals. Cincinnati is 2-4 against Top 25 teams dating back to 2009, but the average margin of defeat in those four losses is less than five points.
I expect to see a competitive game here in Columbus tonight.
John Martin
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Play: Illinois +21½
This play is more of a fade of the Nebraska Cornhuskers than anything. This team is way overvalued due to its 4-0 start to the season. The 31-24 victory over McNeese State proves that this team is extremely vulnerable. Now, it is in a big letdown/lookahead spot here against Illinois. The Huskers are coming off their biggest win of the season against Miami last week, and now they have arguably their biggest conference game of the season against Michigan State next week. I don't believe they'll give Illinois enough of their attention this week to win by more than three touchdowns and cover this lofty spread. QB Wes Lunt and this high-powered Illinois offense will put up enough points to stay within the number.
Harry Bondi
AIR FORCE (+13.5) over Boise State
We like the spot here for Air Force, which comes in off a win and bye week and has been using a new defensive scheme this year that is paying off. Couple that with the fact that the Fly Boys' ground game will be able to milk the clock and slow the game down and we'll happily take the two touchdown head start. Despite a major drop off in talent and on the coaching staff, Boise State is still being priced like the Boise State of old. Two weeks ago, the Broncos were laying 15 at UConn and earned the cover despite being outgained in total yards. They won't be as fortunate this time around. Home dog cashes!
Peter Brown
Louisville -21
The Cardinals seem to have picked up where they left off last season despite the graduation of QB Bridgewater. In steps Freshman QB Bohannon who replaces Gardner at QB. The strength of the Cardinals remains in the defense which has given up few points thru the first three weeks. Wake Forrest has struggled moving the football even against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe. Expect Louisville to be able to move the football against Wake Forrest but the Deacons should have trouble scoring against a stout Cardinals defense.
Stanford -8
The Cardinal enter this game already with a PAC-12 loss after a home loss to USC. The Huskies have been living dangerously lately after spotting Ga State 14 points last week before scoring 44. They trailed Hawaii in the opener after rallying for a win. New HC Petersen has not had the same success as he had at Boise just yet in Seattle. Stanford brings their usual stout defense to this game. The Cardinal have the better quarterback in Hogan and should score enough in a potentially low scoring game.
Nelly
Illinois + over Nebraska
Given the struggles of the Big Ten out of conference this season, last week's win for Nebraska was huge, beating Miami in a marquee non-conference clash. The Illinois defense could have problems in this matchup as the Illini barely got by Texas State last week, allowing nearly 500 yards against a team not known for offense. Illinois lost by 20 in Lincoln last season with 521 yards allowed and a second straight trip to Nebraska could be challenging. Illinois is 3-1 but they have narrowly snuck by lesser teams in all three wins and another difficult Big Ten campaign seems likely. There is a great letdown potential for Nebraska given the hype for last week's game and knowing that Michigan State is next on the schedule. Nebraska has been shaky on defense at times this season so Illinois may be able to score a few times and oddly Nebraska was only favored by 7 last season, making this a huge move for a game in the same venue with Nebraska looking like a similar caliber team this season and Illinois clearly looking more competent so far this season. Illinois is 15-9 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 while Nebraska is just 23-30-1 ATS at home since 2007.
Dr Bob
WISCONSIN (-34) 38 South Florida 8
Wisconsin steamrolled Bowling Green’s horrible defense last week to the tune of 758 yards (648 on the ground) and 68 points but that win appears to have resulted in an inflated spread this week against a defensively solid USF squad. The Bulls have only allowed 4.7 yard per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team) and 5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, so they’re unlikely to get run over the way that Bowling Green did last week. South Florida will have a tough time scoring, as the Bulls are a very bad offensive team (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average team) but my model projects only a 30 point margin with lower than expected total scoring. I’ll lean with South Florida plus the points and under.
RUTGERS (-13) 32 Tulane 21
I don’t see much worthy of discussion in this game except that Rutgers’ 31-24 upset win at Navy sets up the Scarlet Knights in a negative 26-63-4 ATS letdown situation – and could certainly see a letdown for this non-conference game with a Big 10 game against Michigan looming but my math favors Rutgers by 13 ½ points with star RB Paul James out for the season, which is a big blow. I’ll pass.
BOSTON COLLEGE (-9) 36 Colorado State 25
The line on this game soared up from 4 ½ points to 9 points and there is still value on Boston College. Boston College is good defensively (4.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they have a great ground game on offense (350 yards at 6.8 yard per rushing play), which overcomes a horrible pass attack (just 4.8 yards per pass play). The key for the Eagles is running the ball and I don’t see that being a problem in this game against a Rams’ defense that has allowed 218 rushing yards per game at 5.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team). The Rams are horrible defending the pass (7.2 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 5.5 yppp), so Eagles’ quarterback Tyler Murphy will probably be better than he’s been.
Colorado State has a good offense that rates at 0.7 yards per play better than average, but the math projects a model 5.5 yppl for the Rams in this game and overall I favor BC by 11 ½ points. Most of the value is gone but I’ll still lean with the Eagles at -10 or less.
Strong Opinion – PITTSBURGH (-20) 40 Akron 15
Pittsburgh’s weakness is an inconsistent pass attack but the Panthers won’t have to worry much about that given that they should run for well over 300 yards against a sub-par Akron defensive front that allowed 297 rushing yards at 8.7 yards per rushing play in a 17-48 home loss to Marshall last week. Pitt is averaging 276 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp in 3 games against FBS competition (I excluded their 62-0 win over Delaware in which the Panthers ran for over 400 yards) and bruising back James Connor should have no trouble topping his 175 yards average. Pitt’s defense is nothing special but the Panthers are better than average on the stop side of the ball and that unit won’t be challenged too much by a worse than average Akron attack that has managed to average just 5.2 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. The line on this game is actually fair now that it’s moved from the opening number of 17 points, as my math model favors Pitt by 20 points. However, the Panthers apply to a 46-9-1 ATS subset of an 82-23-2 ATS statistical matchup angle and that make this game worth considering even without the line value. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
CLEMSON (-15) 43 North Carolina 23
This is not a good spot for Clemson, who is likely to be a bit flat after last week’s overtime loss to Florida State. In fact, the Tigers apply to a negative 64-148-4 ATS situation that is based on last week’s close loss and North Carolina applies to a 124-62-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s 41-70 loss at East Carolina. I had ECU as a Best Bet in that game and North Carolina simply is not as good as a lot of experts thought they’d be. UNC has averaged 43 points but don’t be fooled by that number. The number to look at is the very mediocre 5.4 yards per play that the Tarheels have averaged this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Clemson has a good defense that should limit the Tarheels’ attack in this game and I don’t see how UNC’s horrible defense (6.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) will slow down a Clemson attack that has been 0.6 yppl better than average and is better now that Deshaun Watson has been promoted to the starting quarterback position. I’d be on Clemson big here if not for the strong situations favoring North Carolina and I’ll still lean with the Tigers minus the points.
MIAMI-FLORIDA (-6 ½) 34 Duke 23
Duke is an average team that is 4-0 thanks to a very easy schedule and I think the Blue Devils are overrated based on their success in recent years. Miami has been impressive despite last week’s 31-41 loss at Nebraska. That game actually got a very good game rating, as Miami was only outgained by 24 total yards by a very good Nebraska squad that is strong on both sides of the ball. I’d actually be on Miami as a Best Bet if not for a 73-22-1 ATS situation that favors Duke here. But, that angle is not going to keep from a pretty solid opinion backing the Hurricanes, who my math favors by 13 points.
Notre Dame (-9) 32 Syracuse 24
Syracuse is a pretty solid team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an averaged defense. Notre Dame is a bit better from the line of scrimmage and they have a big advantage in special teams, an area that has really hurt Syracuse. The math favors Notre Dame by 8 ½ points overall so there really isn’t any line value to be had here now that the line has come down from 13 ½ points.
Dr Bob
MICHIGAN STATE (-28 ½) 35 Wyoming 10
My math model really likes Wyoming here because of the match up, as the Cowboys’ solid run defense (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average team) is well suited for a huge underdog role against a team that prefers to run the ball. Wyoming has also been good defending the pass (5.8 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppp) so the Cowboys are not likely to be stampeded in this game. However, while the math gives Wyoming a 56% chance of covering the Spartans apply to a 40-10-1 ATS subset of a 111-46-3 ATS situation that kept me from playing Wyoming earlier in the week as a Best Bet at a bigger price. I’ll still lean with the Cowboys.
PENN STATE (-10 ½) 29 Northwestern 13
Northwestern has been surprisingly bad offensively this season, averaging just 21 points and 4.6 yards per play while facing opponents that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. The Wildcats have yet to average 5.0 yppl in any of their games and it’s doubtful they’ll hit that number today against a good Penn State stop unit that’s yielded 4.8 yppl or less in all 4 of their games. Overall the Nittany Lions have given up just 11.0 points and 274 yards per game at 4.5 yppl while facing teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Northwestern would average just over 3 yards per play unless they improve on the low level that they’ve played the first 3 games.
Northwestern’s defense has been 0.4 yppl better than average so far and they have a slight edge on a Penn State attack that has averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. Penn State is projected to average a modest 5.6 yppl in this game but that should be enough to win by double-digits. My math favors Penn State by 15 ½ points and I see no reason to deviate from that projection. The under also shows solid value here, as my model projects 41.7 total points.
WISCONSIN (-34) 38 South Florida 8
Wisconsin steamrolled Bowling Green’s horrible defense last week to the tune of 758 yards (648 on the ground) and 68 points but that win appears to have resulted in an inflated spread this week against a defensively solid USF squad. The Bulls have only allowed 4.7 yard per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team) and 5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, so they’re unlikely to get run over the way that Bowling Green did last week. South Florida will have a tough time scoring, as the Bulls are a very bad offensive team (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average team) but my model projects only a 30 point margin with lower than expected total scoring. I’ll lean with South Florida plus the points and under.
RUTGERS (-13) 32 Tulane 21
I don’t see much worthy of discussion in this game except that Rutgers’ 31-24 upset win at Navy sets up the Scarlet Knights in a negative 26-63-4 ATS letdown situation – and could certainly see a letdown for this non-conference game with a Big 10 game against Michigan looming but my math favors Rutgers by 13 ½ points with star RB Paul James out for the season, which is a big blow. I’ll pass.
INDIANA (-4) 35 Maryland 29
Indiana applies to a negative 14-50 ATS home letdown situation that is based on their upset win at Missouri but my model pegs the Hoosiers as an underrated team and favors them by 8 points in this game. I’ll still lean a bit with Indiana despite the letdown situation but the better play may be the under. Indiana’s defense is much improved this season and that’s still not in the line given that my math projects only 64 ½ total points.
MICHIGAN (-13) 28 Minnesota 15
I have no interest in this game between two turnover prone teams. My math model favors Michigan by 15 points, with a total of 43 ½ points, but the Wolverines apply to a negative 8-42 ATS 1st conference game situation that I’d prefer not to go against. I’ll pass.
Strong Opinion – KANSAS STATE (-28) 44 Texas El Paso 12
UTEP has covered the spread in all 3 of their games thanks to an improved offense featuring a very good rushing attack that has averaged 323 yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play (although against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yprp to an average team). While I’m respectful of UTEP’s spread success up to this point that has more than been adjusted for in the current line, which has come down from an opening number of 30 points. I like Kansas State here for a few reasons. First off, the Wildcats match up very well defensively with a UTEP attack that needs to run the ball successfully to function given that quarterback Jameill Showers isn’t a very good passer (just 5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback). That’s a good match up for Kansas State because the Wildcats have an extremely good run defense that has yielded just 115 yards at 3.7 yprp to teams that would average 5.6 yprp against an average defensive unit. That includes giving up just 3.2 yprp to Auburn’s potent rushing attack. If Auburn can’t run against Kansas State I certainly don’t expect UTEP to be able to do so consistently. My model takes that match up into account and projects just 265 total yards at 4.1 yppl for the Miners in this game, which isn’t going to cut it given how bad their defense is. The Miners have allowed 469 yards at 7.8 yards per play to 3 teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Kansas State is just average offensively from a yards per play perspective but the Wildcats are projected to rack up 530 yards at 8.7 yppl in this game. My model favors Kansas State by 30 ½ points, which is about where the line opened, so the line move has supplied line value in favor of the Wildcats. I also like the fact that Kansas State coach Bill Snyder has a long history of getting his teams to bounce back from losses, as his teams are an incredible 48-18 ATS after a loss since 1990 and 85-44 ATS in all home games, including 38-9 ATS when not off a win (i.e. game 1 or off a loss). If you’re concerned about the huge number you really shouldn’t be given that Snyder is also 37-18 ATS in his career as a favorite of more than 20 points. I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at -28 points or less.
TCU (-32) 40 SMU 8
My math model predicts a 40-8 win for TCU. Okay.
Texas (-12) 27 KANSAS 18
The math favors Texas by 13 ½ points here but the Longhorns apply to a 66-141-6 ATS first road game situation that will have me reluctantly leaning with the Jayhawks.
Baylor (-21 ½) 45 IOWA STATE 22
This is a tough side to pick, as Iowa State applies to a very good 32-5 ATS home dog off a bye angle while Baylor has a history of beating up on lesser teams (12-1 ATS since 2011 when favored by more than 20 points). My model leans with Baylor and favors a lower than anticipated total score. The total, which opened at 68 points, has gone up above 70 and my model doesn’t justify that move.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion – OVER (66) – NAVY (-7.5) 38 Western Kentucky 35
This is a good match up for Western Kentucky, given that the weakness of their defense is defending the pass, which Navy isn’t likely to exploit with their option offense, and Navy’s weakness is also in pass defense, which the Hilltoppers will exploit given that they average 58 pass plays per game. Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty is having a very good season for a Hilltoppers’ offense that is averaging 42.3 points in regulation time with 475 aerial yards per game at 8.1 yards per pass play. That attack is projected to amass 427 yards at 9.2 yppl and 531 total yards against a Navy defense that has surrendered 7.3 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. The passing yards are less despite the expected yards per pass play being higher because Western Kentucky isn’t likely to have as many possessions against the clock eating Navy option, but the Hilltoppers are still expected to score in the mid-30s in this game.
Navy’s option is running better than it has in years with senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds leading the way (and it was good with a freshman at QB the game Reynolds missed 2 weeks ago), as the Midshipmen have averaged 445 total yards per game at 6.7 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yppl to an average team. Navy has only averaged 26.8 points per game, which is 6 points less than their stats would project, and I think that mediocre scoring average is keeping the total on this game lower than it should be. As mentioned above, Western Kentucky’s horrible pass defense (7.8 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 5.7 yppp) is not going to be taken full advantage of by a team that doesn’t throw the ball very often and the Hilltoppers have actually been solid defending the run (4.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp). Navy is still projected to average 6.5 yprp while racking up 508 total yards at 6.8 yppl in this game and I expect the Middies to score more efficiently with those yards.
As mentioned, Navy has scored 6 points fewer per game than their stats would predict and that is unlikely to continue. Overall, the Midshipmen have played 4 games with an average total points scored of 54.3 points, which is actually a bit less than the national average. However, the combined total yards in Navy’s games have been 868, which is well above the average of 794 yards per game (excluding kneel downs and plays run by special teams units, which I eliminate from my offensive numbers and include in my special teams ratings instead). Navy games should be scoring 8.6 points more than they have been and the total is lower than it should be in this game because it’s being influenced more by Navy’s scoring than by their yardage numbers. Historically, Navy games have been 2.4 points lower scoring than projected by the stats and I expect that to be the case going forward, rather than that 8.6 points lower scoring we’ve seen so far this season. My math model projects 75.3 total points based on the stats and that gives us 73 points when we factor in Navy’s -2.4 points. I like the over based on the line value so I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 67 points or less and I also lean with Western Kentucky plus the points based on the favorable match ups, which get accounted for in my model.
AUBURN (-32 ½) 41 Louisiana Tech 14
My math model favors Auburn by just 28 ½ points and Auburn applies to an 8-31-2 ATS letdown situation that plays against home favorites of 28 points or more coming off a close conference road win. I like that angle since it certainly makes since that the Tigers could be flat here after a close win at Kansas State and with the SEC schedule looming.
Strong Opinion – FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+6) 20 Texas San Antonio 21
Florida Atlantic started the season with two brutal losses at Nebraska (7-55) and at Alabama (0-41) while allowing an average of 702 yards at 8.7 yards per play. FAU was projected to have a decent defensive team and they’ve shown that the last two weeks while allowing an average of just 20.5 points on 349 yards at 4.9 yppl to Tulsa and Wyoming, two teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. FAU still has an average defensive rating that is 0.8 yppl worse than average because they continue to have trouble defending the run. The Owls have allowed 260 rushing yards at 7.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average defensive team and they’ve been 1.2 yprp worse than average the last two weeks against Tulsa and Wyoming (5.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp), so the bad run defense numbers are not solely because Nebraska ran for 498 yards at 8.7 yprp against them in week 1. The good news for FAU today is that UTSA has one of the worst rushing attacks in the FBS, averaging a woeful 3.4 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team). UTSA isn’t likely to take full advantage of FAU’s horrible run defense and I don’t expect the Roadrunners to have success throwing the ball with an ineffective Tucker Carter (4.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) going up against a solid FAU pass defense that’s give up 6.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.9 yppp against an average defense. The Owls gave up a lot of aerial yards to very efficient passing teams Nebraska and Alabama but they yielded just 4.3 yppp the last two weeks to two sub-par quarterbacks that would average 5.2 yppp against an average team. UTSA is worse than both Tulsa and Wyoming throwing the ball and my model projects just 4.2 yppp for Carter in this game and just 4.3 yards per play for the UTSA offense.
UTSA’s calling card is their defense, which has yielded just 5.2 yards per play to Houston, Arizona and Oklahoma State, who would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit. Florida Atlantic has been 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively but backup quarterback Hankerson has been dreadful on his 48 pass plays (just 2.5 yppp) and starting quarterback Jaquez Johnson has averaged 7.7 yards on 61 pass plays. Those numbers are inflated by a few big plays against Tulsa and I rate the Owls’ attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average with Johnson behind center after adjusting for the positive variance in his yards per completion number. Overall, the value belongs with Florida Atlantic as my math favors UTSA by just 1 ½ points. I’ll consider Florida Atlantic a Strong Opinion in this game and I’d take FAU in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion – OVER (57 1/2) – Rice (-8) 35 SOUTHERN MISS 28
You necessarily thing high scoring when you see this match up but Rice actually has a pretty good offensive unit and the Owls’ defense has the ability (or lack thereof) to make any team look good – even Southern Miss. The Rice offense is led by quarterback Driphus Jackson, who left last week’s game early with an injured shoulder but is listed as the starter this week. Jackson has been sharp so far, averaging 8.1 yards per pass play against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Old Dominion, who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback (weighted by how many pass plays he ran against each team of course) and Jackson has added 181 yards on 24 runs. The Rice running backs have done a solid job as well and the Owls’ attack averages 236 rushing yard at 229 passing yards per game and has been 0.4 yards per play better than average after adjusting for opposing defenses. Southern Miss has allowed 489 yards per game at 6.6 yards per play while facing 4 teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team, so Rice should move the ball very well in this game and the Eagles’ propensity for quick drives on offense has allowed their opponents to have more possessions and run a lot of plays, which my model projects here (76 plays for Rice and 58 plays for Southern Miss). The math model forecasts 534 yards at 7.0 yppl for the Owls in this game, which should lead to about 35 points.
The trick here is getting Southern Miss to score some points, as the Eagles have averaged only 14.8 points per game. However, their 323 yard at 4.9 yards per play would project more scoring but the Eagles have suffered some incredibly negative variance in 3rd down conversions (25%) and in redzone scoring (3.25 points per RZ trip). Even the worst offenses aren’t that low in those categories by the end of the season and Southern Miss should be better in both going forward, which will lead to betting scoring efficiency. My model takes that likelihood into account and higher efficiency with their yardage could really pay off in this game given that the Eagles should move the ball effectively against a horrible Rice defense that’s allowed 528 yards per game at an incredibly bad 8.5 yards per play. That’s bad even against good offensive teams like Notre Dame (actually they’re not much better than average) and Texas A&M, but the Owls also gave up 45 points on 530 yard at 8.3 yppl last week to an Old Dominion offense that had been struggling. There has been some variance for the Rice defense also, as the Owls are not likely to continue to allow 16.7 yards per completion and going forward they should be a full yard per pass play better than they’ve been. However, Rice still has an atrocious pass defense that is 2.2 yards per pass play worse than average even after adjusting for the variance, and the Owls have allowed 7.1 yards per rushing play too. Southern Miss is 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively but the Rice defense is much worse than that and Southern Miss is projected to gain 382 yards in this game.
Overall, the math favors Rice by 6 ½ points with a total of 65.3 points and I’ll consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 58 points or lower.
Strong Opinion – PITTSBURGH (-20) 40 Akron 15
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 10:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 130 Over/Under 50.5 - Matchup Stats
Pittsburgh’s weakness is an inconsistent pass attack but the Panthers won’t have to worry much about that given that they should run for well over 300 yards against a sub-par Akron defensive front that allowed 297 rushing yards at 8.7 yards per rushing play in a 17-48 home loss to Marshall last week. Pitt is averaging 276 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp in 3 games against FBS competition (I excluded their 62-0 win over Delaware in which the Panthers ran for over 400 yards) and bruising back James Connor should have no trouble topping his 175 yards average. Pitt’s defense is nothing special but the Panthers are better than average on the stop side of the ball and that unit won’t be challenged too much by a worse than average Akron attack that has managed to average just 5.2 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. The line on this game is actually fair now that it’s moved from the opening number of 17 points, as my math model favors Pitt by 20 points. However, the Panthers apply to a 46-9-1 ATS subset of an 82-23-2 ATS statistical matchup angle and that make this game worth considering even without the line value. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
BUFFALO (-6 ½) 31 Miami Ohio 25
Miami is 0-4 straight up but they’re a pesky 3-1 ATS and my math model gives the Redhawks a 54.9% chance of covering based solely on the math. However, Miami applies to a very negative 89-199-4 ATS situation and 97-185-4 ATS situation that combine to go 0-5 ATS when both apply to the same game. Those are two strong, independent situations that favor Buffalo to cover. The math is favoring one side and the situation favors the other, so it’s probably best to steer clear of this game.
TOLEDO (-13 ½) 37 Central Michigan 19
Central Michigan gets a boost offensive with the return of RB Thomas Rawls, who still lead the team by over 200 yards rushing despite only playing in 2 of the team’s 4 games. More importantly the Chippewas expect to have All-Conference and future NFL WR Titus Davis back in action for the first time since early in week 1. Davis averaged 10.9 yards per pass thrown to him last season, which is significantly better than the 7.9 yards per attempt that the top 5 receivers are averaging so far this season. However, my model still favors Toledo by 17 ½ points on the basis of their potent offense that has averaged 7.0 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and has only been 0.2 yppl worse since Logan Woodside took over at quarterback for injured starter Philip Ely a couple of games ago. I’ll lean with Toledo
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion – SAN DIEGO STATE (-18) 41 Unlv 18
I’d be on San Diego State as a Best Bet here if not for a 28-86-1 ATS situation that applies to the Aztecs. UNLV is a complete mess right now, as the Rebels’ only win was a 13-12 victory as a 27 ½ point home favorite against FCS team Northern Colorado while the 3 games against FBS teams have resulted in an average loss of 30.7 points (to Arizona, Northern Illinois, and Houston). UNLV is 0-4 ATS and the Rebels have perhaps the longest injury list of any team in the nation. The defensive side of the ball is particularly shy of bodies with 5 of the team’s top 8 tacklers expected to miss this game. San Diego State is a solid team that rates at 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively (although just average without top receiver Ezell Ruffin) and average defensively. UNLV, meanwhile, has been 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 1.5 yppl worse than average on defense (6.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). I don’t see that unit getting any better with 5 key defenders watching from the sidelines and my math model gives San Diego State a 58.6% chance of covering. However, that 28-86-1 ATS situation is keeping me from pulling the trigger even though the Aztecs also apply to a solid 310-182-7 ATS statistical match up indicator. I’ll consider San Diego State a Strong Opinion at -19 or less and I’d take the Aztecs in a 1-Star Best Bet if the line goes down to -17 or less.
Stanford (-7) 27 WASHINGTON 20
Washington has played much worse than expected in head coach Chris Peterson’s first season in Seattle but the Huskies are in a great spot here, applying a 70-29-1 ATS home underdog angle that I prefer not to go against. I’m not going to ride that angle either because Stanford is a much better team and Washington has yet to show any evidence of being the team that they were expected to be. The Huskies have faced a schedule of teams that’s 10 points and 0.9 yards per play worse than average yet they’ve only outgained that weak slate by 14 yards and 0.4 yppl. Stanford is only 0.1 yppl better than average offensively so far this season, as their 6.8 yppl has come against teams that would allow 6.7 yppl to an average attack. It’s the Cardinal defense that sets them apart in this games, as that unit has allowed just 4.3 points and 3.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. My model favors Stanford by 11 ½ points but the line value is negated by the strong situation that Washington applies to.
USC (-9) 29 Oregon State 25
USC suffered a letdown loss at Boston College two weeks ago after their undeserved win at Stanford (outgained 294 yards to 413 yards) and the Trojans haven’t really played well overall this season, averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yppl on defense. USC rates as just average from the line of scrimmage after adjusting for schedule strength, but that’s much worse than expected and Oregon State may be a bit underrated. My math model likes Oregon State to stay within the number here.
Strong Opinion – Vanderbilt (+17 ½) 19 KENTUCKY 31
Vanderbilt started the season with losses of 7-37 to Temple and 3-41 to Ole’ Miss, both at home, but the Commodores have improved offensively since replacing Stephen Rivers at quarterback (he completed just 36% of his passes for 4.4 yards per pass play) and they’ve been solid defensively all season, allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. The Vandy offense replaced Rivers with Patton Robinette and backup Wade Freeback and both have been far more effective. It’s uncertainly if Robinette has recovered from his concussion symptoms enough to get the green light here, or if Freeback will get the nod. Either way, those two have combined to rate at just 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average and the offense has been 0.2 yards per play better than average the last two weeks without Rivers at QB (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average at this point. Vanderbilt actually is a decent team now with an offense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average and a defense that is 0.3 yppl better than average. Vandy also has better than average special teams and the perception is still that the Commodores suck, which is no longer the case.
Kentucky has covered the spread in all 3 of their games so far but it appears that spread success, combined with Vanderbilt’s 1-3 ATS mark, has inflated the line on this game, which opened at 13 ½ points. My math model, using this year’s games only, favors Kentucky by only 12 ½ points so the line move has created good value and I’ll consider Vanderbilt a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more.
Strong Opinion – GEORGIA (-17) 37 Tennessee 15
Georgia has been dominating in wins over a good Clemson team and a horrible Troy team and losing at South Carolina while averaging 6.9 yppl and allowing 6.6 yppl is not a bad loss. The Bulldogs are looking like an elite team and while Tennessee is looking like a mediocre squad that so far has been only 4 ½ points better than an average FBS team. Georgia simply looks too good and my ratings favor the Bulldogs by 22 ½ points here and I’ll consider Georgia a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less.
AUBURN (-32 ½) 41 Louisiana Tech 14
My math model favors Auburn by just 28 ½ points and Auburn applies to an 8-31-2 ATS letdown situation that plays against home favorites of 28 points or more coming off a close conference road win. I like that angle since it certainly makes since that the Tigers could be flat here after a close win at Kansas State and with the SEC schedule looming.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-5 ½) 33 Missouri 32
These are two evenly matched teams, as Missouri is a well-balanced squad that is good on both sides of the ball (0.5 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively) while South Carolina has struggled defensively (6.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average team) while being extremely good offensively (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl). The math favors South Carolina by just 1 ½ points and I like the dog here and will be hoping for the straight up win by the Tigers, which will help my South Carolina under 9.5 wins bet.
SPORTS WAGERS
Hamilton +110 over WINNIPEG
The Blue Bombers get Drew Willy back for this game and all we can say about that is big deal. Willy sprained his throwing shoulder in a Sept. 13 loss to the B.C. Lions and says he feels perfectly ready to go. That’s probably true but what also follows an injury like that one is the psychological worry of being hit in the shoulder again. The result is usually a QB that gets rid of the ball quicker than he normally would. Additionally, after a hot start to the season, Willy has shown signs of throwing the ball up for grabs on several occasions every game this season. He figures to do that even more here because of that shoulder injury. The Blue Bombers have dropped three in a row and five of six. They were outgained two weeks ago (they were off last week) by the Lions by 246 yards. They were also outgained by the Argonauts by 200 yards when their losing streak began. Overall, Winnipeg has been outgained in five of its past six games. This is a team that is regressing badly and a visit from the Tiger-Cats doesn’t figure to change anything.
Hamilton is just 4-8 on the year and has shot themselves in the foot in just about every loss so far. The Ti-Cats could easily be 10-2 on the year but because they are 4-8, they are extremely undervalued. Man for man, Hamilton has as much or more talent than any team in the CFL on both sides of the ball. The Ti-Cats defense has recorded 10 sacks over their past two games. In that 38-31 recent loss to the Alouettes, Hamilton outgained Montreal by 167 yards. They also outgained Saskatchewan two weeks ago by 205 yards and in their 13-12 Labour Day win over the Argonauts, they outgained them by 213 yards. Last week, down 15-3 at the half and playing the fourth quarter into a ferocious wind, Hamilton racked up 15 straight points and rallied to win again. Lastly, Hamilton has played some of its best football on the West Coast this season. They have played twice in Winnipeg since August of last year and won both times by scores of 37-18 and 37-7. We get a tag on the much better team with momentum and that’s a bet we’ll make almost every time.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +132 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers have quit playing. They were officially eliminated from post-season play on Thursday with a loss in Cincinnati and came yesterday to conclude their extremely disappointing season. Milwaukee looked like a lock to make the post-season when August rolled around but with the worst record in all of baseball since, these Brewers are about as mentally low right now as a team can get. Each player comes to the plate with their head down, as Sunday’s finale can’t get here soon enough. Wily Peralta owns a 96-mph fastball and high 54% groundball rate. It's a combination that has helped him post his first full-season sub-4 ERA. Some nice command gains against LH bats have fueled that improvement. However, his low 5% swing and miss rate on his mid-90s fastball has prevented him from taking the next step. Peralta has also walked 11 batters over his last 20 innings and appears to be running on fumes with a 1.42 WHIP and 4.21 ERA since the beginning of August. After throwing 194 innings and being mentally drained with the rest of his team, Peralta and the Crew are about the riskiest favorite to be wagering on right now.
Meanwhile, the Cubs have not quit playing. Chicago has all the pieces in place to be a serious contender next year. They just took two of three over the Cardinals and the opener in this one to run their winning streak to three. They’ve also won eight of their past 13 games. Tsuyoshi Wada had an elite 2.52 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in August. A 24% hit rate and 86% strand rate drove those marks, but his skills were solid nonetheless with 7.8 K’s/9 and 2 BB/9. We also like that Wada is fresh with just 64 innings pitched this year and that he’s a southpaw because the Brewers .235 batting average against lefties is the fourth worst make in the entire league. Since their collapse, the Brewers are even worse against lefties with a BA of .219 since August 1. The Cubbies are playing to win while the same can’t be said for the Crew.
Note: As the oddsmakers found out yesterday (and we did too), it is unwise to post a line (several games are off the board this morning) or make a bet without knowing more about the starting lineups in this final weekend, as several starters are sitting in favor of September call-ups. We would recommend knowing the starting lineup before making any wagers these last two days and it’s for that reason we’ll tread lightly.
Larry Ness
UNLV at San Diego State
Pick: San Diego State
UNLV’s Bobby Hauck was given a contract extension after the Rebels made their first bowl appearance since 2000 last season, although UNLV got hammered 36-14 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl by North Texas. Anyway, so much for a winning seasons in Las Vegas this year, as UNLV has opened 1-3, winning only 13-12 at home against powerhouse Northern Colorado. UNLV’s offense has played just ONE good quarter through four games (that’s 16 quarters in all, if one is counting!), scoring 21 points in the third quarter of a 48-34 home loss to Northern Illinois.
A check of the NCAA fact book reveals UNLV has allowed 566.0 YPG, ranking 124th of 125 FBS schools (ahead of only Bowling Green’s 616.0 YPG allowed). NO team has allowed more rushing yards than UNLV (305.3 YPG on 5.8 YPC) and while UNLV is allowing 41.2 PPG overall (to rank 121st), that’s because it held that Northern Colorado powerhouse to 12 points. In games at Arizona and Houston plus at home to Northern Illinois, UNLV is allowing 51.0 PPG (that number would rank LAST among all 125 schools!)
Revenge will be on the minds of the Aztecs, after losing 45-19 at UNLV a season ago. However, QB Caleb Herring, (5 TDs / 0 INTs in last year’s game) has graduated and so has RB Tim Cornett. It’s been a rough go this past year at UNLV. The school was originally banned from postseason play by the NCAA due to grade scores being too low among several programs, not just the FB team. However, after losing a couple of players via transfer, the NCAA reinstated UNLV's bowl eligibility after clerical errors were uncovered. That said, the damage was done. San Diego St will face a MUCH weaker version of UNLV than it encountered last year.
SDSU has played a tough schedule, including road games at North Carolina and Oregon State. This represents a big step down in the level of competition and let’s NOT forget that “revenge” motive, as last year’s loss to UNLV cost the Aztecs a share of the MWC West title when it upset them in the final regular season game for both teams. Note, SDSU had just beaten Boise St (in OT) the previous game. UNLV gets NO such “let down” situation this time around. UNLV doesn't have the talent or depth to keep up in this one. Lay the points.
Nick Parsons
Western Kentucky vs. Navy
Play: Western Kentucky +8
The Navy Midshipmen host Western Kentucky Hilltoppers for a non-conference matchup.
Navy has had an up and down year so far. After their loss last week at home to Rutgers 31-24, the midshipmen come into this game at 2-2. These two teams played last year with Western Kentucky coming away with a 19-7 win.
WKU's offensive has been one of the best in the nation during the first month of the season. They rank eighth in scoring at 46.7 points a game and third in yardage with 608.7 yards a game. These numbers are slightly skewed by a triple overtime 718 yard out.
Quarterback Brandon Doughty has completed 68.8 percent of his passes this season with 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions with1‚459yards. Doughty is an equal opportunity quarterback with six players having double-digit catches and five have at least 180 yards. The running game takes a back seat to the passing attack averaging just 122.3 yards a game. Leon Allen leads the team with 345 yards on 81 carries and three touchdowns.
The Hilltoppers defense is not as well as their defense. They give up 41 points a game and just over 500 yards a game. They will need to tighten up against the Navy rushing attack.
Navy's offense is averaging just a shade over 26 points a game and average 445 yards of total offense. As always, the vast majority of the Midshipmen's offensive production comes from their rushing attack. They have been averaging 345 yards a game on the ground .Quarterback Keenan Reynolds leads the team with 63 rush attempts for 240 yards and five touchdowns. Noah Copeland has 241 yards‚ Chris Swain 201 yards and a touchdown‚ Geoffrey Whiteside 195 yards and one TD and Ryan Williams- Jenkins with 194 yards round out the rushing attack.
Their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. Reynolds has completed less than 53 percent of his throws for 281 yards and a touchdown‚ with most of that production coming in last week's come-from-behind effort (231 yards).
Defensively‚ Navy has been average ‚ allowing 27.5 points a game and giving up 432 yards a game.
I as a battle between the Hilltoppers passing against the midshipmen running attack. I see a shootout and a close game. I am playing on the Hilltoppers to keep it close.
MLB Predictions
Pirates / Reds Under 6.5
I have made plenty of bank making this bet in Reds' games. With a dismal offense and a few solid options in their starting rotation, it has been a good formula for success. The UNDER has cashed in 83-70. They face a Pirates team that that has hit the UNDER in 8 out of their last 10 matchups. Cincinnati will need to contend with Francisco Liriano, who had a shaky stretch earlier in the season has calmed down. In his past ten starts he's given up more than 2 runs on only one occasion. Moreover, Liriano possesses an ERA of only 0.45 over his last three starts. He's also been much better on the road, a 2.17 ERA compared to 4.35 at home. The last time Liriano gave up more than 3 runs on the road was his first road start of the season on April 11th. Look for him to look sharp against the Reds. Conversely, Alfredo Simon has been hot as well. Showcasing a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts. A solid finish to an otherwise great season for a pitcher that finally had an opportunity to be a full-time starter. Simon gave up only 4 hits, but 3 runs off a homer, in his last outing against the Pirates. He'll look to improve on his 3.34 ERA against the Pirates who are gearing up for the post-season. I like the UNDER 6.5 at + money here.
The Gold Sheet
North Carolina at Clemson
Play: North Carolina +14.5
We often like bounce-back situations for competent teams after a blowout loss. So UNC gets one more chance after last week's 70-41 loss vs. mega-motivated ECU. And off bitter loss at Florida State, not sure Clemson likely to reach the fever pitch that Ruffin McNeill’s Pirates did in Greenville. Fedora’s spread attack still scoring 43 ppg, and Dabo Swinney now giving majority of snaps to true frosh QB Deshaun Watson.