Bob Balfe
Iowa -8.5
Purdue is just not a good football team. This is a young offensive line that will not be able to protect the edges today. The line play on both sides of the ball should be dominated by Iowa. Iowa will be starting a new QB today with Rudock out, but don’t look too deep into it, this Hawkeye team is going to run the ball much like they did last year in their blowout win. It looked like the same old Iowa team when they lost a game to Iowa State at home, but they showed great toughness coming back the very next week and beating a Pitt team on the road. This team has the talent to play with the best teams in the Big 10. I know that is not saying much because this conference is weak, but Purdue just is a bad football team all around. Take Iowa.
UMass/Bowling Green Over 72
UMass has come a long way with their offense since last year and what you really like about them is their lack of turnovers. Bowling Green was a force last year at Defense, but they lost a lot of players from that side of the ball and are dealing with key injuries at every level today. We all know Bowling Green is going to score with their up tempo offense against a school who doesn’t have top notch players on defense. I believe UMass is coming to play today on homecoming and are going to give this team a run for their money. Vegas agrees because of that suspect line, but still if this gets into a shootout out, which I think it will, I don’t trust UMass to win a close game. They are not used to winning. I think these teams are going to put up a lot of points with the winner breaking 50. Take the Over.
Navy -8
Last year WKU knocked the Navy QB out of the game in the second quarter and held one of the best rushing attacks in football for under 100 yards. The quarterback position is so important in the triple option and this Hilltops team had a decent defense. The problem is there are only 2 other schools that have lost more tackles from last year. WKU only returned 38% of their tacklers from last year meaning it is tough to stop this Navy Offense when you don’t have experience on defense. Navy should simply make them look silly today. Navy also has not lost two games in a row for quite some time. This team has revenge on their mind after last year’s loss. The Navy Offense is going to also keep that WKU Offense off the field. Remember the saying good defenses travel well. This WKU team has put up record breaking type offense the last two weeks and still lost their games on the road. There is really not much more they can do on that side of the ball if their defense stinks. Navy should limit their possessions and keep them off the field. Take Navy.
Duke +6.5
Duke has not played the best of competition, but this team is dangerous running the football. Head Coach David Cutcliffe is doing a remarkable job with this program and finally people are starting to give these guys the respect they deserve. Miami has a freshman QB with three new starters on that offensive line. Last year Duke won this game, but there was no Duke Johnson in for Miami. Johnson is great running back, but the problem I have with him is that young offensive line is only going to do so much for him. Duke is running the ball with authority and I like them in this game especially with these points. Take the Blue Devils.
San Jose State/Nevada Under 53
San Jose State was not putting up many points and were turning the ball over so they are making a QB switch this weekend. Nevada has juniors and seniors on their defense and I just don’t see the Spartans putting up too many points. Nevada obviously has the best player on the field in QB Cody Fajardo, but he doesn’t have the weapons that he had in the past as this team only has a few passing touchdowns and really are not much better in the running game. The skilled level players in this game just are not what it used to be. Last year Nevada ran for over 300 yards on the ground and SJ State threw for over 300 yards in the air. I don’t see any of those numbers this evening. Take the Under.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Maryland Terrapins, catching points at Indiana.
It's the Terrapins' Big Ten debut today, after they went 3-1 during the preseason. Indiana is 2-1, but I question this line and wonder if the Hoosiers can match the talent Maryland has with its skill position players.
And they'll all be fired up as we creep toward the midseason. Eerie as this will sound, but the Terrapins could win today and motivate themselves by reminding one another they're just two wins from bowl eligibility. That's a bigger thing than some might realize.
The Terrapins rank second in the Big Ten with 10 takeaways and are on pace, at 2.5 per game, to finish with 30 takeaways this season. Their defense will be turned up today, and with enough pressure, the Hoosiers will end up rattled and will be making their own mistakes.
Play the road dog.
3♦ MARYLAND
Craig Davis
Your free play today is the Ohio State/Cincy game to go OVER the posted total.
It's pretty obvious Urban Meyer went to the drawing board with his offensive coordinator after the embarrassing 35-21 loss at home to Virginia Tech... because even though they were playing Kent State the following week, the offense was a whole lot different. Lots of different guys getting their hands on the ball; Barrett throwing a lot more screen passes; and the offensive line had some shake-up too.
Granted, I don't expect them to score 66 points today because Cincy isn't going to go three-and-out every series, but I do expect them to push 40 against this porous Bearcats defense that allowed Toledo to march up and down the field on them.
But the OVER is going to happen because Cincy's offense is pretty darn good and it doesn't really matter who they play, they're going to score some points. Tommy Tuberville did some really good recruiting in the state of Ohio and Pennsylvania and put together an offense that might actually rival Ohio State's.
Points will be plenty at the Horseshoe tonight, as this game soars over the total.
4♦ CINCINNATI-OHIO STATE OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Louisville over Wake Forest.
Hats off to Dave Clawson who was able to rouse Wake for a 24-21 home field upset win over Army last weekend, but the bottom line is, this is a rebuilding Demon Deacons team that will be in over their heads at Papa John's Stadium against a coach that has no issue running up the score.
Bobby Petrino has returned to Louisville and has his team off to a 3-1 start both straight up and against the spread, with a pair of covers in as many games at home.
The Deacons has split a pair of road games against the spread in the underdog role, and now now just 5-7 ATS since 2012 as the road pup.
Yes, it seems like a lot of points, but with Petrino's penchant for keeping his foot on the gas pedal, my advice is to lay the lumber.
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Georgia Bulldogs, laying the big number, over the Tennessee Volunteers.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with Georgia - Georgia's running backs run deep, led by Heisman Trophy contender Todd Gurley and a pair of stellar freshmen, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs, who rank second in the SEC with an average of 304 yards rushing per game, will eat clock and keep the Vols off the field.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Tennessee - The Volunteers have dropped 20 straight road games against ranked teams, most recently falling to No. 4 Oklahoma 34-10 two weeks ago.
In conclusion, why GEORGIA is my SMART PLAY in this game - Tennessee has used 22 true freshmen already, more than any other FBS program, and overall this is a very young team to be able to hang in this contest. Today the young Vols are going to find out what life is like in the SEC between the hedges - one of the toughest places to play.
Georgia hasn't lost at home to an unranked team since Kentucky in 2009. The Bulldogs need to build up points and climb back into the playoff picture. I like the Dawgs to get there by three touchdowns
3♦ GEORGIA
Chris Jordan
Wyoming, bleass its heart, will head to Lansing for Hhmecoming, and will get stomped by the Spartans. As good as the Cowboys might contend they are, and as much improvement as we've seen from this team, they will not compete with Michigan State.
Though both teams lost to a similar opponent, and have won the rest of their games, Michigan State has too much talent and depth to let Wyoming stick around. Michigan State's rushing game has a revolving door, as there are plenty of options for coach Mark Diantonio.
Both lost to Oregon, but keep this in mind, the Spartans led the Ducks in the second half, while Wyoming trailed Oregon 41-7 after three quarters.
The Spartans can't afford to regress this week, as their Big Ten schedule starts after this game, begining with the conference opener at home against Nebraska. The Spartans will want plenty of momentum
2♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Brad Wilton
After watching South Florida score no more than 17 points in any of their last 3 games - all of those games at home by the way - my thoughts that the Bulls will be able to stop the Badgers from steam-rolling them at Camp Randall Stadium this Saturday are not pretty thoughts.
Wisconsin has followed up their opening week loss to LSU with wins by 34 points and 51 points, with that 51 point home win over Bowling Green seeing Bucky Badger put up a school-record 644 yards rushing!
Have to figure that Gary Andersen who has guided his team to a 6-3 spread mark the last 9 times they have been asked to cover double-digits will dial things up again in another Wisconsin steam-roll over the pedestrian Bulls from Tampa.
Lay the chalk with the Badgers.
5♦ WISCONSIN
Marco D'Angelo
North Carolina at Clemson
Play: North Carolina +14.5
North Carolina was soundly laid to rest last Saturday after allowing a school-record 789 total yards in Greenville. What's that you say? The 'Heels are not dead? According to North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora, “I have to do a better job.” Really? Is that all you have Larry? In the bench bosses defense, and the fact that Fedora said he would do better this week, UNC is 8-2 ATS as conference dogs of eight or more points.
The Tigers are 1-2 on the season and can't be excited about this matchup on Saturday, not after fumbling away a win over No 1 Florida State in overtime. Clemson and North
Carolina did not play last season and they have not met since a blowout Clemson win in 2011. Fedora's troupe is in a much better situation than Dabo Swinney and his challenge to get the Tigers (1-2, 0-1 Atlantic Coast Conference) to play with the same intensity they did against FSU last Saturday.
North Carolina (2-1, 0-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) is at the crossroads of a season that could go south fast. That make-or-break fork in the road begins with a test at Clemson followed by a contest against Virginia Tech and then Notre Dame. Given the build-up for the Florida State game and the great opportunity the Tigers fumbled away this is a letdown spot that could see the Tigers not only play flat, but lose outright as double digit favorites.
LT Profits
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Pick: Over 6.5
The Pittsburgh Pirates have clinched a playoff spot but the still trail the Cardinals by just one game for the NL Central title, so do not look for starters to be resting vs. the Cincinnati Reds. That is bad news for Reds’ starter Alfredo Simon, who after an unrealistic start to the year that earned him an All-Star berth has gone 3-7 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.45 WHIP since the break while yielding a .284 batting average. Granted Francisco Liriano is in raging form for Pittsburgh having allowed two runs or less in six straight starts, but with a tiny posted total like this one, be may not need to allow many runs to push this game ‘over’ if the Pirates get to Simon as we expect. Liriano is also 0-5 with a 4.01 ERA lifetime vs. Cincinnati. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in Liriano’s last seven starts vs. the Reds.
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -148
The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 versus NL West foes and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with Arizona. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games versus southpaw starters and will welcome Miley to the mound with his 5.73 home ERA. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Miley's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. St. Louis is in good hands with Lynn, who has a 3.05 road ERA. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Lynn's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Oliver Alonso
Duke vs. Miami
Play: Duke +7
Name alone keeps Miami as an inflated favorite in this game but Duke is pretty clearly the stronger team. The Blue Devils won by 18 last year when these teams met and this will be a matchup that brings great focus for the Duke program given Miami's historical success. Miami enters this game off a huge game at Nebraska last week and the results in 2014 have not been overly impressive, including getting blown out in the opener with Louisville. Miami has been an atrocious ATS performer as a home favorite in recent seasons going 24-43 ATS since 2002 and this should be a tough spot on the schedule.
Duke posted 543 yards against Miami last season and Duke went 3-0 S/U&ATS as a road underdog last season. On the season Duke has posted 6.4 yards per rush as this is no longer a pass-first team while Miami is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry on the ground as the Blue Devils could be an underdog with a substantial rushing edge. Last week Miami gave up huge rushing numbers against Nebraska and while the Hurricanes have played the tougher schedule so far this season this is a Miami team that continues to disappoint. Duke has a big edge in quarterback in this matchup behind Anthony Boone and Duke is ready to back up its 2013 Coastal Division title. Duke continues to defy expectations and value is still with the Blue Devils.
Andy Iskoe
Maryland +4
Maryland tuned up for its Big 10 debut with a convincing win at Syracuse while Indiana pulled a stunning upset with its win at Missouri. Mizzou may have been caught looking ahead to this week's major revenge game with South Carolina but IU must be given full credit for rebounding from an upset loss at Bowling Green a week earlier, much as Maryland rebounded from it's own upset home loss to West Virginia. Both teams appear much improved this season but Maryland's improvement seems more legit. The Terps have won both road games thus far and are excited about their first Big 10 game, fortunate to draw one of the league's weaker programs. After enduring an above average number of injuries in 2013 this is a team expected to make major progress this season. They enter the Big 10 at the right time.
Top Shelf Picks
Wisconsin -35
Wisconsin came out last week and had an amazing day against a terrible Bowling Green team. This week they get the same opportunity against a very weak South Florida team. The Badgers need to come out and have the same performance as last week so that they can continue to make up for the one loss to LSU this year, and keep climbing in the rankings. The Badgers running game is on fire, and they will run all over South Florida today. I have this one 62-13 Wisconsin.
Jeff Scott
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
AIR FORCE +13 over Boise State: (Added) The Boise State Broncos are a solid team, but not like they used to be and they will struggled away from home like they did vs UConn and Ole Miss. The Air Force Falcons are normally a solid team and they are 6-0 ATS as dogs of less than 19 off a week of rest. We also note that this is one of the most experienced teams that Air Force has had in a long time and Boise State is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a DD road favorite vs a team off a SU win. The Air Force ground attack is tough for teams to stop and this year they have added the pass a bit more to their offense and that will create some big plays for them vs a Boise State defense that has allowed 309 ypg through the air. The Broncos Offense is good, but not nearly as explosive as in years past and I just don't see them putting up enough points to run away with this one. Broncos may win but not by double digits. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: PLAY ON any home dog or favorite of less than 16 points in Game Four of the season if they are playing with rest and revenge off a SU win. Teams in this spot are 26-4 ATS since 1980.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Missouri/ South Carolina Over 62: (Added) Two very good offenses vs two very suspect defenses should amount to a ton of points in this one. Missouri comes averaging 430 ypg and 38 ppg so far this year and they will be taking on a very bad South Carolina defense that has allowed 480 ypg and 36 ppg and have really struggled vs the two strong offenses (Texas A&M & Georgia) they have faced this year as they allowed 87 points combined in the two games. Let's also note that last week vs a pitiful Vandy offense they allowed 379 yards overall, 5.2 yards per carry and 34 points in that game. Missouri's offense should have a very nice showing in this one. The South Carolina offense has been very good this year, as they have averaged 443.5 ypg and 36.8 ppg on the year and they did put up 38 points and 447 yards vs a solid Georgia defense on this field. Missouri has allowed just 20.3 ppg this year, but in games vs two teams with an offense (Indiana & Toledo) they allowed 27.5 ppg and 450.5 ypg. Very hard to not see this game as a shootout.
BEST OF THE REST
Stanford/ Washington Under 48: Stanford doesn't really have an explosive offense, as they have averaged a modest 30 ppg this year and we note that the Washington defense has allowed 19 points or less to all three FBS teams they have faced this year. The Stanford defense has allowed just 13 total points this year and while the Offense has looked good for the Huskies of late they have not played a defense like this one yet. I expect both teams to have trouble moving the ball in this one, which should keep this game in the lower 40s at best.
Memphis +21 over OLE MISS: This Memphis team is much improved this year and they proved that by taking a very good UCLA squad to the limit on the road. This is a huge game for the Tigers as far as recruiting is involved and they get a scheduling break here as the Rebels have a big game vs Alabama on Deck. The Rebels are the better team here, but still 6 of the last 7 in the series has been decided by 17 or less, with 5 of those being decided by single digits. Bad spot here for the Rebels vs a highly motivated and much improved Tigers team should keep this final to 14 points or less.
Dave Cokin
Syracuse +9.5
I'm always on the lookout for what I feel are misleading results. These are games where the stat profile clearly points to one side having won the game, but the final score ends up getting flipped. It's by no means an automatic that I'll be on or against a team off one of these games the next week, but it's definitely an attention getter as I start to break down that next contest.
Syracuse is off a game that fits this category. The Orange basically blew Maryland out on the stat sheet last week. But they sure didn't do so on the scoreboard, as the Terrapins actually won the game easily. Syracuse put up some big numbers in the loss. Unfortunately, they either couldn't finish off their drives, or made a mistake at the worst possible moment, and the result was a frustrating loss.
The Orange cannot afford to make those errors again today as they're stepping up in class to face a good Notre Dame team. The Irish aren't what I'd call under the radar, as that's basically an impossibility for any Notre Dame team. QB Everett Golson has looked terrific in leading the Irish to three straight wins, and it looks to me as though a double digit win campaign is a definite possibility for Notre Dame.
But I also think the Irish could end up in some close games, and this looks as though it could be one of those types. I'm not sold on the Notre Dame running game and I think Golson is only at his best in a balanced attack. If the Irish have to throw 35-40 times, it's probably not a good thing.
That could be the case here, as I'm impressed with Syracuse's rush defense. And that's the key to today's game from this vantage point. Syracuse needs to run it reasonable well and continue to limit the opposition in that area. The data says they're entirely capable of doing exactly that, and if that's the case we've got a game that could well go right down to the last possession.
I thought the early number on this game was considerably higher than it ought to have been. Apparently, some respected syndicates and pro bettors felt the same way as the Orange were hit pretty hard early in the week. The action has leveled off since but this number is still in the playable zone, albeit with the optimum price long gone.
Without going into complete detail, this game fits a defensive dog formula that I've played with success over the years. I also like the fact that we have what I call a misleading result from last week that dictates a play this week under the right conditions. I don't think this is a great money line risk, but taking close to doubles with Syracuse is what I believe to be a decent gamble.