Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 28

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Angels at Texas
The Angels look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 0-4 in Derek Holland's last 4 home starts when the run total is set at 9 to 10 1/2 runs. LA is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+135)

Game 901-902: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.904; San Francisco (Petit) 14.799
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Over

Game 903-904: Colorado at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 13.241; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.374
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-240); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-240); Under

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.532; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.999
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Under

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at NY Mets (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Nelson) 16.178; NY Mets (Harang) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Over

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martin) 15.537; Atlanta (Minor) 14.618
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 13.832; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.316
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 913-914: Washington at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 15.272; Arizona (McCarthy) 14.041
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.919; Toronto (Happ) 15.320
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 16.648; Minnesota (De Vries) 12.994
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-200); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 15.949; Seattle (Maurer) 16.823
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+140); Under

Game 921-922: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.025; Baltimore (Chen) 16.850
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.940; Houston (Clemens) 13.214
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Over

Game 925-926: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 15.732; White Sox (Johnson) 13.831
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Texas (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 16.078; Texas (Holland) 15.143
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+135); Over

Game 929-930: Detroit at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.333; Miami (Eovaldi) 13.7522
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under

CFL

Toronto at Edmonton
The Eskimos look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games against Toronto. Edmonton is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-1)

Game 293-294: Calgary at Hamilton (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 122.365; Hamilton 117.179
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 5; 53
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 2 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+2 1/2); Under

Game 295-296: Toronto at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 112.603; Edmonton 116.535
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 1; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-1); Under

Brandon ShivelyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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California vs. OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 84FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game tonight features a high-octane Oregon offense against a piss-poor Cal defense. Cal is avg. 555 YPG. Oregon is avg. 672 YPG. Cal loves to air the ball out and use a up-tempo Sonny Dykes offense. They don't care about defense, they just want to score. Cal's defense is horrible and they have multiple defensive injuries to make it worse. Cal is giving up 265 rushing yards a game (6 YPC) , while Oregon is avg. 8.5 YPC. I look for Oregon to stick 60+ on the board again tonight and Cal will put up the rest. They could set this total at 94, and I would still give you the OVER as my complimentary pick. Play this game over.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Akron vs. Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I've had a good handle on the Falcons so far this season. I won with them when they crushed Tulsa.
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Next, I successfully played against them when they were blown out at Indiana.
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I believe this will prove to be a good spot to again play on the Falcons.
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The Zips have fought hard two weeks in a row, only to come up short. That can be hard on a team. They're no stranger to blowout losses and I feel they're ripe for one here.
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The Zips, who have struggled as road underdogs in this range over the years, are being outgained by a 464.7 to 369.7 margin, in terms of total yards.
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The Falcons responded to the bad loss at Indiana with a 48-7 win. All three of their victories have come by a minimum of 19 points. They're 3-0 ATS as favorites, 10-4 ATS in that role the past few seasons.
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The Falcons are outgaining teams by an average of 528 to 292.5 here at home.
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Bowling Green has dominated the Zips in recent seasons. Last year, playing at Akron, the Falcons found themselves trailing by 10 at halftime. They proceeded to outscore the Zips 24-0 in the second half, en route to a comfortable win and cover. Playing at home, I expect an even bigger win here. Consider Bowling Green.

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU -19 over SMUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Gary Patterson has long been one of our favorite head coaches and this is a perfect spot to be on him and his maligned Horned Frogs. The team is off to a sluggish 1-2 start, but had last week off to refocus. With a date next week at Oklahoma, TCU knows full well that a win here is a must. The Mustangs have played TCU tough the last two years, with an outright win in 2011 and a close 8-point loss last season, so there is no chance of the Horned Frogs taking this game lightly. The SMU defense only returned five starters and has suffered a number of key injuries the last few weeks. Opposing teams have taken advantage as the Mustangs have allowed 38 points per game so far this season, including 30 at home to a Montana State, a non-FBS school. Patterson has covered 60% of the time as a home favorite in his a career and in a desperation scenario he won’t hold back this week. SMU won’t be able to keep pace. This one is a rout from start to finish.
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TROY +11 over DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke comes in off a heartbreaking, wild and crazy, 58-55 loss to Pittsburgh and now is in the unfamiliar role as double-digit favorite. Troy ran into a buzz saw last week at Mississippi State and got drilled, but that provides us some line value as the Trojans have fared well over the last few years against BCS teams, going 7-3 ATS before last week’s loss. The Dukies will still be hungover from the Pitt debacle and without a fully focused effort here, the Trojans easily slide under the number.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi at AlabamaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: MississippiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Mississippi is a very strong team and I believe the public is simply overlooking that fact and going with the seemingly unbeatable Tide. Rebels return 9 starters on offense including their QB and 10-of-11 defensive starters. This experience and chemistry is a huge factor for the Rebels going into this hostile venue. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (OLE MISS) excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry and after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. Rebels rank 21st in the nation averaging 250 RYPG and it will be this pounding attack that will wear down the Tide defensive front. I realize this is in stark contrast to the 'talking heads' on the major sports networks, but the Tide has not faced this strong a running offense during their reign. Rebels us four backs for the majority of running plays with Scott averaging 9.4 YPC gaining 330 yards, Wallace gaining 120 yards on 32 carries, Brunetti 117 yards on 21 carries, and Walton 77 yards on 20 carries. These four backs have accounted for 108 of the 132 team carries. This will certainly keep the backfield fresh against the Tide defense and is exactly why I believe they will succeed in ground attack. This then opens up play action pass plays for Scott to hook with a strong stable of receivers. Engram, Mongrief, and Treadwell will be targets in these situations and make it very difficult for the Tide defense to double any one of the three. I like Missisippi a lot.

SpartanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona St. -5.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Is there a 3-1 team in the country held in lower regard than this Trojans club under Lane Kiffin? I don't suspect there is. I cashed last week with Utah State and the points against this squad and I am fading them once again here in the desert come saturday night against a Sun Devils team that will be in a cranky mood after a spanking at Stanford last weekend. I'm having a real hard time seeing this Arizona State club getting off to a 0-2 record in league play and to be candid I simply don't trust that USC offense with my money. Trojans don't dodge another bullet. Take the Devils at home here guys and lay the reasonable number. Many sincere thanks as always and best of luck to us.

Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Connecticut at BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tough spot for the UConn Huskies after falling short against Michigan last Saturday night. The Huskies led 21-7 in the second half, finished with a +3 turnover advantage, but still couldn't close the deal in what was arguably the biggest game in Storrs' history. While UConn is forced to put the tough loss behind them, Buffalo had last weekend off...an extra week to prep for this one. Buffalo has the ability to go up top or keep it on the ground with success, especially with RB Brandon Oliver upgraded to probable for this contest. I have little faith in UConn HC Paul Pasqualoni and his offense that's averaging just 1.9 yards per carry. And since his arrival in Storrs, the Huskies are 0-6 ATS on the road on normal prep time (6 days). No shocker there. I expect more of the same in this one. I'm recommending a play on Buffalo on Saturday.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno St. at HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno State (3-0) looks to keep up their momentum after their 41-40 win against Boise State -- but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Bulldogs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Hawaii (0-3) looks to rebound from their 31-9 loss at Nevada last week -- and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September. Lastly, in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Hawaii, the game finished Under the Total in all 4 occasions. Take the Under in this one.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno St. at HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno shows up in Honolulu with its BCS-Buster credentials still intact but the fact is the Bulldogs 3-0 SU start masks an 0-3 ITS failure. And off last week's huge 1-point win over Boise State, hitting the beach in Hawaii may not be the best way to keep the dream alive. Believe it or not, the Rainbow Warriors own 149 YPG the better defense against FBS foes this season but the team's 0-3 start really calls into question Norm Chow's effectiveness as a head coach (UH now 3-12 SU under Chow). Even with the homeboys struggling, though, we don't want a bunch of Bulldogs who have been consistently outstatted all season. Keep the clothespin handy as it looks to be Chow time today at the pineapple patch. We recommend a 1-unit play on Hawaii.

AC DineroFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas State vs. MissouriFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arkansas State +22FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas State comes in a decent 2-2 under the new head coach. They have a solid OL, a respectable passing game, and have been solid on 3rd down. They could use some improvement stopping the run. Missouri comes in off a good start at 3-0, and begins SEC play next week, and they are chomping at the bit for a better showing in 2012. They want to prove to "grown man football" that they aren't as soft as they were last year. They do have the ability to hit the big play in the passing game, but must be more efficient in general on offense. While I don't think Arkansas St will threaten in this game, but 21 points is a lot for a team that may be peaking ahead to next week. Take the generous points with the Red Wolves.

Matt FargoFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC vs. Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona St -5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have been involved with the last tow USC games and we were able to win both as the Trojans rolled over Boston College and then the Aggies stayed within the number last week. The pattern tells us that USC will put together a good game here but I am still not sold on this team especially on the road. After three straight home games, the Trojans hit the road for the second time this year and first time against a team with a pulse, no offense to Hawaii. The last time the Trojans went to Tempe, they got blasted back in 2011 and that was when they were actually a good team, going 10-2 on the season. USC has not covered away from home since then as well, going 0-8 ATS. Arizona St. won that controversial game against Wisconsin two weeks ago and then went into Stanford last week and lost by 14 points after falling behind by 32 points. The best thing to take away from that is the fight from the Sun Devils as they could have packed it in but did not give up. This is a big game for both sides. The winner of this game keeps itself square in the Pac 12 South Division race while the loser will face a major uphill climb going forward to get back into it. That is why I give the edge to the home team that is not only in bounceback mode but revenge mode following last season's 21-point loss in Los Angeles. The USC strength is by far its defense. It leads the nation in red-zone defense, is second in tackles for loss, third in rushing defense, fourth in total defense and sacks, 11th in scoring defense and 12th in pass efficiency defense. Those are pretty strong rankings but they have come against a schedule ranked 66th in the nation. That makes the inept offense that much more baffling. Last week after coming out and establishing the run early, USC all but abandoned it entirely in the fourth quarter. The Trojans converted none of their eight third-down attempts of the second half and now, this will be Trojans quarterback Cody Kessler's first true road start and it will be taking place in one very tough environment. Arizona St. is ranked 43rd in total offense and 35th in scoring offense which is bolstered by a passing offense that is eighth best in the nation. The Sun Devils have played the 13th ranked schedule thus far so they are certainly the more tested team. USC is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games dating back to the start of last season and it is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after allowing 14 points or less in three straight games.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Army vs. Louisiana TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ArmyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Army owns a 11-0 ATS L/11 mark in games played in Texas. This Army side recruits heavily from Texas and you can bet many of their players will be revved up for this neutral site tilt .Louisiana Tech,under the direction of first-year head coach Skip Holtz has looked truly abysmal and Im betting his defense wont be able to stop the Cadets ground attack as the game progresses. Since 2009, Army has been among the top-18 teams in the country in rushing yards.Army led the nation in rushing each of the past two seasons with its total yards per game increasing 166 yards per game. Final notes & Key Trends: Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Projected score: Navy 31 LA Tech 24 Army to win and coveR.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi vs. AlabamaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MississippiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm going to take the bait (and the points) w/ Mississippi Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Despite beating Texas A&M, Alabama just hasn't looked the same this year, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Expect that to cost them the cover here against a very live dog. The Rebels are 12-4 ATS the L2 seasons....
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Though the final score was 33-14 (Ole Miss was +30!), Alabama definitely had its troubles last year w/ the Rebels. The Ole Miss defense held them to a season low 305 total yards, but was done in by three turnovers & a Crimson Tide punt return for a TD. The Bama defense also had trouble w/ the Ole Miss no-huddle. The Rebels are certainly a much better team this year compared to last. They come in averaging 38 points per game and are rushing for 250 YPG. Additionally, they have a situational edge here as they are coming off a bye week after thumping Texas two weeks ago, on the road, 44-23 as two-point dogs.
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Save for the A&M game, Alabama's offense has not looked good at all. They are last in the SEC in rushing yards per game after going for just 66 last week against Colorado State, their fewest in a game since 2010. Bama is second worst in the conference in total offense at 370.7 YPG. The rebuilt offensive line is going to have its issues stopping a very good Ole Miss pass rush led by Robert Nkemdiche. The Rebels defensive front is much better and more physical than the Colorado State line which was able to hold its own last week vs. Bama. Ole Miss is holding opponents to just 3.09 yards per rush. This one will come down to the wire.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma vs. Notre DameFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Fighting Irish defense hung tough in the red zone, forcing field goals as opposed to allowing touchdowns. And Oklahoma suffered a couple of bad snaps from center that killed key drives, not atypical of the miscues that plagued them in both regular season losses.
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Now Oklahoma gets their chance for revenge in South Bend, and the betting markets clearly expect them to accomplish that task. Bob Stoops is a 3.5 point road favorite here, with -4’s starting to pop up. It’s surely worth noting that the Sooners have only enjoyed two winning ATS seasons over the last ten years in the ‘road chalk’ role. If you take out their 5-0 mark as road chalk with their 2008 team that played Florida in the national title game, Stoops and company are just 11-21 ATS as road favorites over the past ten years.
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Oklahoma has not been tested early. They’ve faced Louisiana – Monroe, West Virginia and Tulsa at home prior to last week’s bye. All three of those squads struggled to compete athletically with the Sooners talent base, but Oklahoma still struggled offensively in two of those three games. The passing game didn’t work in the opener against UL-M. And they managed only a single TD in a tight win over West Virginia; a Mountaineers team that lost 37-0 in a neutral site game against Maryland last week.
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After the Sooners early offensive troubles, Stoops made a QB change from frosh Trevor Knight to junior Blake Bell. The Belldozer was unable to beat out his frosh competitor in camp, but he enjoyed a huge game against Tulsa: 27-37 for 413 yards and four touchdowns without an INT. Now, he’ll be making his first career road start against a pretty tough defense; a far cry from the suspect stop unit that Tulsa brought to the table before the bye.
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The Irish have faced a much tougher early slate than Oklahoma, including matchups against both Michigan and Michigan State. QB Tommy Rees has only completed 56% of his passes, but his 8:2 TD:INT ratio is rock solid and four different Notre Dame receivers have a catch of 40 yards or longer.
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Notre Dame lost four key defenders to the NFL draft last Spring, and there’s been a noticeable drop-off for a team that allowed less than 13 points per game in 2012. That being said, they’ve allowed only 19 points in two previous home games, and have a pretty darn good track record defending mobile QB’s like Bell. I’m expecting a tight, competitive contest, which means I can only recommend Notre Dame plus the points. That extra half point at the current +3.5 point spread has the real potential to be a difference maker on Saturday.