Steve MerrilFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi vs. AlabamaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MississippiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rebels are well coached and they’ve proven they can play with the upper echelon teams of the SEC. We think this line is a couple of points too high so we’ll take those generous points and play Mississippi over Alabama on Saturday night.
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Alabama comes into this game at 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS with their lone spread cover being undeserved when they beat Virginia Tech 35-10 despite getting out-gained in that game. Last week, Alabama beat Colorado State 31-6, but that was not an impressive win by any stretch of the imagination. The Crimson Tide only had 16 first downs while allowing 13 first downs to Colorado State. Alabama had just 338 yards of total offense with only 66 of those yards coming on the ground. That’s a troubling performance, especially against an inferior opponent from a weaker conference. They haven’t been able to run the football with consistency and they are only averaging 132 rushing yards per game. Alabama has scored 5 of their 16 touchdowns this season on defense or special teams and right now, they just can’t be laying over two touchdowns into a competent SEC opponent.
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Mississippi also comes into this game at 3-0, but the Rebels are 2-1 ATS with their failed spread cover coming as whopping 49.5-point favorites over FCS SE Missouri State. The Rebels were not embarrassed at Alabama last season as they only lost that game 33-14; the Rebel’s defense held the Crimson Tide to a season-low 305 yards of offense. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS when catching points away from home under HC Hugh Freeze. In conference games last season, the Rebels hung tough versus Alabama and they only lost by 3 points (30-27) to Texas A&M and lost by 6 points (41-35) at LSU. This team will not be in awe against Alabama, and if things fall into place just right, it’s not out of the question for Mississippi to pull the major shocker and win this game outright. The Rebels are well coached and they’ve proven they can play with the upper echelon teams of the SEC. We think this line is a couple of points too high so we’ll take those generous points and play Mississippi over Alabama on Saturday night.
Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy at Western KentuckyFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Navy -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Although 1st year HC Petrino is just 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in his maiden voyage, it is never easy to fade him. In his college career, Petrino is 56-33 ATS. Already this season, he has upgraded the Hilltoppers to 200 Club status. Yet last week in a 58-17 win over Morgan State, he showed concern for the signal callers spot playing 4 different QBs. That does not help continuity. Now the Toppers step up to what could well be their toughest defensive challenge of the year. They have only a week to prepare for the Navy option attack and may not even make it a priority with their Sun Belt season directly ahead. That would be a mistake. For I have been waiting patiently to step in with Navy. This is the perfect spot. Early last season, then frosh QB Reynolds stepped in to run the Middies attack. With Reynolds at the controls, Navy finished 7-2 SU. This year, an improved Reynolds is leading the Middies to the nation's best ground attack at 398/6.0. But the shocking stat is that Reynolds threw for 237 yards last week against the Blue Hens. Meaning there is a threat of balance to the Middie option. With the nation's leading ground game facing a defensive front that allows 196/5.1, this has Steamroller written all over it.
Stephen Nover
South Carolina vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida +7
This non-conference game for South Carolina is nothing but a nuisance. But for host Central Florida it's the biggest football game in school history. A win could elevate the Knights into the Top 25.
So the motivation and situational aspects are there for Central Florida. The key question is do the Knights have the talent to match up to this SEC foe?
Yes they do. Central Florida beat Penn State on the road in its last game two weeks ago. The Knights piled up more than 500 yards of total offense despite missing their starting offensive left tackle, Torrian Wilson, who is expected to play here.
Central Florida has outstanding talent on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Knights rank 14th in scoring defense and 21st in total yards.
The Knights have won 22 of their last 27 home games.
Offensively, the Knights have a very good quarterback, Blake Bortles. He threw for more than 3,000 yards last year and has completed 71.4 percent of his throws this season with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Bortles has five of his six leading receivers back from a year ago and has an excellent running back, Storm Johnson.
South Carolina was torched by Aaron Murray when the Gamecocks lost to Georgia, 41-30, three weeks ago. Murray threw for more than 300 yards and four touchdown passes without an interception. Now it's Bortles' turn.
South Carolina's talent actually is down having lost 13 players to the NFL in the past two years. The Gamecocks' best player, defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney, has been dealing with a sore foot and his effectiveness has been greatly reduced.
Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV / New Mexico Under 54FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In the end, New Mexico simply isn't going to rack up points against anyone. But, they are disciplined under Bob Davie, and this IS still UNLV on the road, and New Mexico is not Central Michigan or Western Illinois, and they've had two weeks to prepare, and they've played a much tougher opponent in Pittsburgh than UNLV did in Minnesota. I see this as far more like New Mexico's first game, a 21-13 game against UTSA, than I do the shootout they had w/UTEP. They've (New Mexico) also converted over 50% of their third downs, and if they come anywhere close to that here, with their pace and ground game, this game stays well under the number.
Ross Benjamin
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Northern Illinois vs. Purdue
Play: Over 57½
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The Northern Illinois Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers meet in a non-conference battle on Saturday in West Lafayette, Indiana at Noon ET. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2. According to current college football betting odds the visiting Huskies of Northern Illinois are a 3.0-point favorite and the total is 57.5. This is the 2nd all time meeting between these two schools on the gridiron. Northern Illinois won at Purdue 27-20 as an 11.5-point underdog on 9/19/2009.
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The Dominant Mid-Major
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Northern Illinois has put themselves on the college football map with their accomplishments in recent years. Last season the Huskies attained an unprecedented feat as they became the first team from the MAC to play in a BCS Bowl game. They eventually lost to Florida St. 31-10 in the Orange Bowl but it culminated a very successful 12-2 season. This is a team that’s 15-1 in their last 16 and 24-2 in the last 26 games overall. Besides the Florida St. game the only other loss in that span was in their 2012 season opener 18-17 versus Iowa. They were able to revenge that loss in their 2013 season opener winning on the road 30-27 over the Hawkeyes.
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The Huskies enter this contest 3-0 on the season and are coming off a huge scare a week ago. They were given everything they can handle and then some versus Eastern Illinois before pulling out a come from behind 43-39 win, while failing to cover as a 14.5-point favorite. The defending MAC champions fell behind 20-0 in the first 7:24 of the game before mounting a furious comeback to capture the win. The defense continues to be a major concern as the FCS school Panthers racked up 577 yards of total offense including 450 of those in the air.
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Patience at Purdue
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The Purdue faithful yearns to return to the winning tradition that was established by former head coach Joe Tiller. Under his successor Danny Hope the Boilermakers went a disappointing 22-28 the last 4 seasons. Hope was let go and replaced this season by Darrell Hazzell the former head coach at Kent St. All Hazzell did last season was lead Kent St. to a terrific 11-1 regular season. His team lost in the MAC championship game to Northern Illinois 44-37 in overtime. That narrow defeat cost the Golden Flashes an improbable BCS Bowl berth. Hazzell took over a program at Kent St. that hadn’t had a winning season since 2001and in just 2 years reversed its bad fortunes.
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Purdue enters this contest with a record of 1-3 with its only win versus a FCS school Indiana St. 20-14. Last week they were pummeled at Wisconsin 41-10 and failed to cover as a 21.5-point underdog. Similar to Northern Illinois the Boilermakers have struggled defensively especially versus their 3 FBS opponents in 2013.
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Final Analysis
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Despite their 3-0 start Northern Illinois ranks 115th out of 125 FBS schools in total defense allowing a whopping 491.0 yards per game, versus the like of Iowa, Idaho, and Eastern Illinois. The good news is the Huskies offense continues to be explosive ranking 17th nationally in total offense while also averaging 39.3 points per game. The Huskies senior Jordan Lynch is one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country. Lynch has passed for 662 yards and ran for another 404 yards in 3 games this season. This is nothing new since he threw for 3138 yards and ran for another 1815 a season ago.
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The Purdue offense has hardly been dynamic in their first 4 games. However, versus a porous defense like Northern Illinois I look for quarterback Rob Henry to have a huge day, and the offense as a whole to have their most productive game of the season. The Boilermakers defense will have a difficult time keeping the Northern Illinois offense in check.
Dave Price
Wisconsin +7
Wisconsin has given Ohio State fits in recent years. The Badgers blew out the Buckeyes 31-18 in 2010 and have taken Ohio State right down to the wire the past two seasons. The Buckeyes needed OT to outlast Wisconsin last season, and they edged Wiscy by just four points in 2011. The Badgers have won or lost by seven points or less in 10 of the last 13 meetings. The underdog has gone 10-3 ATS during this span. I expect Braxton Miller to be a little rusty after missing the last two games with a sprained MCL. Plus, you want to take road underdogs that average 450 yards or more per game if they averaged 7.25 yards or more per play in their previous game as doing so has resulted in a 33-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS thus far this season. Ohio State has been explosive offensively as well, but the Badgers are on a 22-8 ATS run versus teams that average 450.0 yards or more per game. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Stanford -9½
The Washington State Cougars are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers in this one due to their 3-1 start. Two of their three victories have come against Idaho and Southern Utah, and the other was against a down USC team that is no longer the power that it once was. Only having to lay single-digit points for a superior team and program like Stanford is an absolute gift in all honesty.
The Cardinal have won each of their first three games by double-digits with victories over San Jose State (34-13), Army (34-20) and Arizona State (42-28). That win against the Sun Devils put to rest any concern about the Cardinal in 2013. Starting quarterback Kevin Hogan improved to 8-0 as a starter dating back to last season, which now includes five victories over ranked teams.
Hogan is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has picked up right where he left off last season after completing 71.7 percent of his passes for 1,096 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions down the stretch. Hogan has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 546 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 69 yards. He leads a Stanford offense that is putting up 36.7 points per game against a pretty tough schedule thus far.
Stanford is 12-2 straight up in Pac-12 road games over the last three seasons. It has won five straight meetings with Washington State with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Plays on any team (STANFORD) – excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 79-27 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cardinal are 24-3-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Bet Stanford Saturday.
Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee -18FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am not going to provide many thoughts on this play and depending on your book you may have to play -18.5 here. That's no biggie as it is not considered a Key number. This line has been everywhere. It did open for a brief time at 21, moved to as low as 17, and then meandered up to it's current level. The Vols have had 2 really tough games verses Oregon and Florida, and they have had 2 cakewalks Over Western Kentucky and Austin Peay. This Tennessee Team has a long way before they can compete with the Elite teams in this country, and certainly the better one's in the SEC. Or is that the same thing? But they can and do have the ability to smack the South Alabama's of the World. I think that they are something like 8-0 playing Sunbelt Squads but don't quote me on that, it just seems like I saw that somewhere. They do have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and they do have some depth. Playing at Neyland Stadium is never an easy thing to do and especially when the Vols have some frustration to take out on somebody. South Alabama has played what we know to be now as a Weak WKY team, a very weak Tulane squad, and Southern Utah. Tennessee is a big jump up from those three. This one could get ugly quick and often.
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LSU / Georgia Under 61.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I know both SEC schools are really clicking offensively, but this league is built around defense. I think both the Tigers and Bulldogs' respective defensive units will shine more than oddsmakers are suggesting with this listed total. Only once in the last 10 meetings between these two programs has the total score gone over 61 points. Georgia has stayed under in five of their last seven SEC games, while the under is also 5-1 for LSU in their last six road games dating back to last season. I think this total had to be made at or around this number based on the way both are playing coming into this tilt. However, I am of the impression defense will have its say in this matchup. Call it a gut feeling as much as the previously mentioned trends, but I feel like the quarterbacks won't have their way here. The running games and the defenses make their mark when these two get together Saturday afternoon. Play the UNDER in this one.
Larry Ness
Toledo vs. Ball State
Pick: Ball State
Two MAC West Division rivals square off Saturday as the Toledo Rockets take on the Ball State Cardinals at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Indiana. Toledo and Ball State tied for second behind conference champion Northern Illinois in 2012, as both schools finished 9-4 overall and 6-2 in conference action. The Rockets have a long winning tradition, with 12 consecutive winning seasons from 1994-2005, before posting four straight losing seasons from 2006-09. However, the Rockets have righted that ship, going 8-5 in 2010, then 9-4 in each of the last two seasons, all three years ending with a bowl bid.
Ball St has nowhere near that kind of winning history but Brady Hoke led Ball State to a 12-0 regular season in 2008 but the Cardinals then got upset by Buffalo 42-24 (as 15-point favorites) in the MAC championship game (Cardinals did outgain the Bulls 503-307 yards!). Hoke then left for San Diego St prior to Ball State’s GMAC Bowl appearance against Tulsa and Stan Parrish, then 62-years-old, was promoted from offensive coordinator after Hoke left to take over the San Diego State program. He suffered a rough debut as the Golden Hurricane won, 45-13 (Ball St is still winless all-time in bowls games, at 0-6).
Parrish went 2-10 and 4-8 the following two seasons, before being replaced by Pete Lembo. Lembo went 6-6 in 2011 but then 9-4 last year. Despite playing in the loaded MAC West (along with Northern Illinois and Toledo), Ball State has hopes of a 10-win season in 2013. The Cardinals are 3-1 (1-0 in MAC play, like Toledo) and if a 10-win season is in the cards (pardon the pun), Ball St will have to beat Toledo in this one. The Rockets opened 0-2 in 2013, losing at Florida (24-6) and Missouri (38-28).
However, Coach Matt Campbell's squad earned its first win of the season beating Eastern Washington 33-21 and that win shouldn’t be dismissed lightly, as the Eagles are ranked No. 2 in the FCS polls and pulled off an upset of then nationally-ranked Oregon State to begin the 2013 season. Toledo followed that victory with a 38-17 rout of Central Michigan at home last Saturday. Ball State coasted to a 51-20 decision at Eastern Michigan last week (MAC opener), after Pete Lembo's team opened up the 2013 season with two straight home wins over Illinois State (51-28) and Army (40-14), but was defeated 34-27 by North Texas in its first road test (the Cardinals led 27-16 at the half but were shut out in the 2nd half).
My ‘gut’ says Ball St is the better team and considering the Cardinals are 12-5 ATS since the start of 2012, including 6-1 ATS here at home (lone loss to Northern Illinois in 2012), I’m taking the home team at this price.
Sean Murphy
Akron vs. Bowling Green
Pick: Over
When these two teams met up last year, we saw a snooze-fest, with Bowling Green going on the road and winning 24-10. That game featured a total of 60.5 points, so we're obviously dealing with a much lower number this time around. I'm not sure the significant adjustment is warranted.
Akron is still a college football bottom-feeder, but there's no question, the program is headed in the right direction.
Over the last two weeks we've seen the Zips just miss notching upset wins over Michigan and Louisiana-Lafayette, scoring 54 points in the process. Head coach Terry Bowden knows his team will have to be efficient on offense if it wants to stick around on Saturday.
"Like everybody else (in the MAC), they're (Bowling Green) scoring points. You don't have to guess what kind of game plan you need to have.''
The Bowling Green offense has looked rejuvenated with dual threat QB Matt Johnson at the helm. Save for a hiccup in Indiana two weeks ago, they've been humming along offensively, particularly here at home, where they've scored 82 points in two games this season.
We're not all that far removed from seeing a shootout in this particular matchup. Just two years ago, Bowling Green prevailed by a 36-20 score right here at home. That was part of a streak of four straight matchups in which at least 56 points were scored.
With Kyle Pohl under center, the Zips finally have a pulse on offense, and I'm confident they can make a game of it on Saturday afternoon. As Bowden said, in order to do that, they're going to need to score some points, and I believe the Falcons defense will oblige.
The problem is, it's unlikely Akron will be able to slow down the BG offense, having allowed at least 28 points in all four games this season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring MAC affair.
Rocketman
Wyoming @ Texas State
Play: Wyoming -11.5
The Wyoming Cowboys travel to Texas State to take on the Bobcats on Saturday night. Wyoming is 3-1 SU overall this year while Texas State comes in with a 2-1 SU record on the season. Wyoming is putting up some healthy numbers on offense and it's well balanced with 225.8 yards per game on the ground and 330.5 yards per game in the air this season. That's an average of 556.2 total yards per game on offense this season. Wyoming is scoring 41.7 points per game overall this year and 45 points per game on the road this season. Wyoming is 11-3 ATS last 3 years on the road and going back even further 20-6 ATS last 26 away from home. Wyoming lost by only 3 points in Nebraska as 31 point underdogs earlier this year. Wyoming is 5-0 ATS last 5 games after a SU win of 20 or more points. We'll recommend a small play on Wyoming tonight!
Tom Stryker
Toledo vs. Ball State
Play: Toledo +1½
Toledo delivered the mail for me last week cashing as my 5* NCAA September Superplay. The Rockets (-12') destroyed the Chippewas of Central Michigan 38-17. Off that huge victory, UT will be looking for a little revenge here. Last year, Ball State (+6') strolled right into the Glass Bowl and upset Toledo 34-27. You know what they say about paybacks men.
Knocking off the Cardinals won't be an easy task. BSU enters this important conference battle off an impressive 51-20 road win at Eastern Michigan and the Redbirds have quietly posted a respectable 15-8 SU and 16-6 ATS record in their last 23 games. Fortunately, Ball State has struggled in Muncie when matched up against a conference opponent that enters off a SU and ATS win notching a dismal 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS mark. If the Cards take the field off an ATS victory of their own, this team trend bottoms out at a shocking 1-7 SU and ATS.
In a revenge mode, Toledo has been at its best posting a profitable 25-15 ATS record including a reliable 17-6 ATS in this set coming off a conference battle. With those two parameters live and the Rockets tackling an opponent that takes the field off a SU and ATS win, this team trend explodes to a nearly perfect 8-1 ATS.
Early season road losses at Florida and Missouri - a pair of SEC powerhouses - may have hurt UT out of the gate. But, the physical and mental toughness the Rockets gained by playing those two quality opponents will help them here.
In comparison, Ball State has faced creampuffs in Illinois State, Army, North Texas and Eastern Michigan en route to their 3-1 SU record. The Cardinals haven't been tested yet and they're going to knock helmets with a MAC squad that has traded punches with some of the best and clearly won't be intimidated. With revenge and the advantage of playing a tougher schedule, the Rockets will get it done. Take Toledo.
Chip Chirimbes
Arizona vs. Washington
Play: Arizona +10
The undefeated and #20 ranked Washington Huskies have become the darling of the public mostly likely because of their early impressive win over Boise State. Washington has a matter of revenge on their minds as they were trashed last last in Arizona 52-17 as Rich Rodriquez has his uptempo offense averaging 43.7 points per game. First road game for Wildcats drops this game a notch but they are still worthy of 'action.'
Steve Janus
Colorado vs. Oregon St
Play: Over 59
I'm shocked oddsmakers have set this total below 60 points. In Colorado's two games this season they have combined for 68 points against Colorado State and 62 against Central Arkansas. Those two teams aren't anywhere close in terms of offensive talent as Oregon State, who has scored no fewer than 34 points in a game this year. Speaking of the Beavers, in their four games they have combined for 95 points against Eastern Washington, 47 against Hawaii, 99 against Utah and 64 against San Diego State. The only one that failed to reach the mark needed for this game was against Hawaii's offense that is downright horrible. Colorado has scored 38 and 41 points in their two points combined. That 41 spot came against a Colorado State team that just held Alabama to 31 points. The Buffaloes offense is better than people think.
Why are these two teams scoring so many points? Neither team can run the football worth a crap and why would they with the way they are moving the ball through the air. Colorado ranks 7th in the country in passing at 370.5 ypg and Oregon State ranks 3rd at 420.8 ypg. If that's not enough Colorado ranks 73rd against the pass (240.5 ypg) and Oregon State ranks 103rd (287.0 ypg).
The fact that both teams will be airing it out just adds that many more possessions, as it keeps the clock moving. It also leads to quick scores. Here's a stat for ya. Oregon State is 22 for 22 inside the redzone with 18 touchdowns and four field goals. I could easily see these two teams combining for 80+!