Dave Price
Wisconsin +7
Wisconsin has given Ohio State fits in recent years. The Badgers blew out the Buckeyes 31-18 in 2010 and have taken Ohio State right down to the wire the past two seasons. The Buckeyes needed OT to outlast Wisconsin last season, and they edged Wiscy by just four points in 2011. The Badgers have won or lost by seven points or less in 10 of the last 13 meetings. The underdog has gone 10-3 ATS during this span. I expect Braxton Miller to be a little rusty after missing the last two games with a sprained MCL. Plus, you want to take road underdogs that average 450 yards or more per game if they averaged 7.25 yards or more per play in their previous game as doing so has resulted in a 33-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS thus far this season. Ohio State has been explosive offensively as well, but the Badgers are on a 22-8 ATS run versus teams that average 450.0 yards or more per game. Take the points.
Jim Feist
Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +4
The Sooners are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and you have to wonder about the QB position. After losing Landry Jones to the NFL, they've used to QBs this season in freshman quarterback Trevor Knight (4 TDs, 3 INTs, 205 yds, 43.8%) and junior QB 6-foot-6 Blake Bell (4 TDs, 0 INTs, 451 yds). Bell is the current start but lacks experience. Notre Dame and Bama were ranked NO. 1 and 2 in defense last season and the Irish return 8 defensive starter this season to a talented unit again. Last October 27 ND was a dog but won at Oklahoma 30-13. Notre Dame had 403 total yards (215 rushing) and the wrong team opened as the favorite for this one. Play Notre Dame!
Joseph D'Amico
Fresno State vs. Hawaii
Play: Fresno State -17½
Fresno State comes in here at 3-0 and averaging 44.6 PPG while Hawaii is 0-3 and posting just 12 PPG. The Rainbows rank 123rd in total offense in FBS teams. Starting QB, Taylor Graham is listed as questionable here after injuring his non-throwing shoulder in last week's 31-9 loss to Nevada. the Team used 3 QBs in his absence. the trio committed 6 TOs, including 4 INTs. On defense, Hawaii ranks 102nd vs. the pass. To make matters worse, LB, Julian Gener is out with an elbow injury. FSU's up-tempo offense has Derek Carr. The QB has a 68.9% CR, 1121 YP, 12 TDs, and just 1 INT. Carr has a stable of talented receivers that will go through the Hawaii secondary at will. The Road team is 7-1 ATS their L8 meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS the L4 games played at the Rainbows, 7-2 ATS their L9 games played on the road, and 5-1 ATS their L6 Conference games. The Rainbows are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played vs. teams with a winning record, 3-8 ATS their L11 games played at home, and 2-8 ATS their L10 Conference games. Take Fresno State.
Jack Jones
Stanford -9½
The Washington State Cougars are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers in this one due to their 3-1 start. Two of their three victories have come against Idaho and Southern Utah, and the other was against a down USC team that is no longer the power that it once was. Only having to lay single-digit points for a superior team and program like Stanford is an absolute gift in all honesty.
The Cardinal have won each of their first three games by double-digits with victories over San Jose State (34-13), Army (34-20) and Arizona State (42-28). That win against the Sun Devils put to rest any concern about the Cardinal in 2013. Starting quarterback Kevin Hogan improved to 8-0 as a starter dating back to last season, which now includes five victories over ranked teams.
Hogan is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has picked up right where he left off last season after completing 71.7 percent of his passes for 1,096 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions down the stretch. Hogan has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 546 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 69 yards. He leads a Stanford offense that is putting up 36.7 points per game against a pretty tough schedule thus far.
Stanford is 12-2 straight up in Pac-12 road games over the last three seasons. It has won five straight meetings with Washington State with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Plays on any team (STANFORD) – excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 79-27 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cardinal are 24-3-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Bet Stanford Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
Ole Miss +14
With a bye week to prepare, I expect Ole Miss to give Alabama a game. The Tide haven't been dominant defensively like we are used to seeing, and the Rebels have shown that they are explosive offensively. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Tide and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Alabama. Additionally, the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Ole Miss returns 10 starters on a defense that held Alabama to 305 yards in last season's meeting. The Rebs lost the game by 19 points but were hurt by 3 turnovers. The Ole Miss offense is greatly improved and it has done a better job of taking care of the football. It has committed just 1 turnover in 2 road games against BCS foes.
Bill Biles
Florida vs. Kentucky
Play: Florida -11
Florida has beaten Kentucky 26 times in a row, and they will make it 27 in a row after this one is over. Florida overcomes to big injuries and their defense steps up and gets them a win o move to 2-0 in SEC play.
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Oklahoma State (-18) 35 WEST VIRGINIA 18SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia was dominated by Maryland last week but the odds makers may have overreacted a bit to that beating. Dana Holgorsen may have made a mistake going with freshman Ford Childress at quarterback after he put up good numbers against Georgia State in week 3. Georgia State would allow 9.3 yards per pass play to an average FBS quarterback so the 8.0 yppp that Childress averaged in that game was not really impressive at all and he managed just 46 yards on 24 pass plays in last week’s 0-37 loss to the Terps. Oklahoma State has an outstanding pass defense that has allowed just 4.3 yppp when their starters have been in the game (the backups gave up a lot of passing yards to USTA in week 2) and Childress will struggle against the Cowboys today. However, West Virginia has a good trio of running backs and the Mountaineers have averaged 6.2 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and my math model projects 198 yards at 5.6 yprp for West Virginia in this game, so the Mounties are likely to generate some offense.
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The Mountaineers also have a better than average defense that’s surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. Oklahoma State’s offense is 1.0 yppl better than average but at least the Mounties can slow them down a bit. Overall the math favors Oklahoma State by just 14 points but I don’t necessarily recommend going against them given coach Gundy’s 34-8 ATS record as a favorite from 5 to 24 points.
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South Carolina (-6½ ) 31 CENTRAL FLORIDA 28PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Florida started the season with two blowout wins over Akron (38-7) and Florida International (38-0) but the Knights proved themselves with a 34-31 win at Penn State before last week’s bye. The Knights are led by quarterback Blake Bortles, who had a very good season last year and has taken his play to another level this season with 71% completions and 10.7 yards per pass play, including 10.7 yppp against Penn State’s good pass defense. South Carolina will be a tough test too but the Gamecocks are not immune from being exploited by good quarterbacks as they showed in giving up 11.7 yppp Georgia’s Aaron Murray in a 30-41 loss in week 2. The Gamecocks did shutdown the better than average pass attacks of North Carolina and Vanderbilt so Bortles isn’t likely to average 10 yppp in this game. However, he should put up pretty good numbers and the UCF rushing attack should run at a decent clip against what has been a mediocre South Carolina run defense (4.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average team).
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I have UCF moving the ball pretty well in this game but the Gamecocks should be even better offensively with their potent attack (7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) going up against a sub-par Knights’ defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl) that gave up 7.2 yppl to Penn State. Overall, my math model gives UCF a 53% chance of covering in a higher scoring than expected game.
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Miami-Florida (-18½) 33 SOUTH FLORIDA 14PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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South Florida is starting their 3rd different quarterback in 4 games and all 3 have been terrible. New starter Steven Bench has averaged only 4.6 yards on his 26 pass plays, which is actually better than the other two quarterbacks so perhaps he’ll be an upgrade. Miami has played well defensively this season after being horrible last season and the Hurricanes will have no problem with a horrendous USF offense that has one good player in RB Marcus Shaw, who has 398 yards in 3 games at 7.0 ypr. My math model favors Miami by 18 ½ points, so the line is fair.
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CLEMSON (-28½) 39 Wake Forest 16SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Clemson isn’t the explosive offensive team that most people think they are. The Tigers do run a lot of plays with their hurry up attack, which hides their mediocrity on a yards per play basis. Clemson has averaged a modest 5.7 yards per play in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Tigers are just 0.3 yppl better than average when starting quarterback Tajh Boyd is in the game. The loss of 2nd team All-American WR DeAndre Hopkins and 1st team All-American TE Brandon Ford have hurt Boyd’s production, which is back to the good but not great numbers from 2011. Wake Forest is a slightly better than average defensive team so Clemson may have trouble scoring enough points to cover such a large number. The problem is that Wake Forest’s horrible offense (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) may not be good enough to take advantage of a mediocre Clemson defense that’s been just 0.2 yppl better than average so far this season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), which is actually an improvement over recent years. Clemson’s 38-35 home win over Georgia in their opener is a mirage given that the Tigers were outgained 469 yards at 6.3 yppl to 551 yard at 8.0 yppl in that game. Wake Forest plus the points is the value side in this game.
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Oklahoma (-3½) 34 NOTRE DAME 27SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma may have caught a break when starting quarterback Trevor Knight was injured. Knight really struggled in his first two starts, completing just 43.8% of his passes and averaging a pathetic 3.8 yards per pass play. Junior Blake Bell stepped into the starting role two weeks ago against Tulsa and the Oklahoma offense suddenly looked like an Oklahoma offense as Bell completed 27 or 37 passes for 413 yards and 4 touchdowns against zero interceptions against a solid Tulsa defense. I doubt that Bell is going to be that good going forward, as there must be a reason he didn’t win the job to begin with, but there is no doubt that he is a considerable upgraded over Knight’s first 2 games performance. Oklahoma’s offense was actually 0.4 yards per play better than average in 3 games even with Knight struggling to throw the ball (in part because Knight ran for 160 yards on 18 runs). The rushing attack isn’t as good without Knight’s running but the pass attack should be much better and I now rate Oklahoma’s offense at 0.7 yppl better than average. Bell could have another big game today against a Notre Defense that has had trouble defending the pass this season, allowing 5.6 yards per pass play to a set of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.0 yppp against an average team. The only better than average passing team that Notre Dame faced was Michigan and the Wolverines averaged 8.4 yppp against the Irish in that game. Notre Dame does defend the run very well but overall the Irish have been just average defensively in 4 games this season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average team). I expect Oklahoma’s offense to work well if Blake’s accuracy so far this season (30 of 43 for 69.8%) is no fluke.
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Notre Dame’s offense has made up for their defensive mediocrity, as quarterback Tommy Rees has averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp) and has apparently shaken his interception habit (just 2 picks in 4 games). The Irish haven’t run the ball well (just 4.2 yprp) but overall they rate at 0.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Oklahoma’s defense was great against UL Monroe in the opener but has been just average the past two games against West Virginia and Tulsa, allowing 5.6 yppl in those two games to teams that would average 5.6 yppl, but I believe that Sooners do have a better than average defense and they rate at 0.5 yppl better than average defensively overall this season.
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Both of these teams are equally good offensively at 0.7 yppl better than average, but Notre Dame has been just average defensively while the Sooners have been 0.5 yppl better than average on that side of the ball. Oklahoma also runs considerably more plays that their opponents, which is always the case over the years, so I expect the Sooners to control this game. I also expect considerably more points than expected, as the low over/under in this game (50 points) is a function of Notre Dame’s reputation of being a good defensive team rather than the reality. I’ll lean with Oklahoma minus the points and I think the Over is worth a small play here.
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ALABAMA (-14½) 33 Mississippi 20SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama’s offense has rebounded from a tough opening game against a very good Virginia Tech defense, as the Tide averaged 8.8 yards per play against Texas A&M and 7.0 yppl last week against Colorado State. It’s the defense that doesn’t look good. Alabama gave up 628 yards at 8.8 yppl to Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago and that is something that never would have happened against recent Crimson Tide stop units, regardless of how good the opposing offense was (they allowed just 5.6 yppl to A&M last season). Colorado State actually moved the ball through the air at a decent clip (5.7 yards per pass play) when in past years the Rams would have averaged about 3 yppp. Overall, Alabama has allowed 6.9 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average defense so this doesn’t look like a typical Bama secondary. Mississippi has a good offense that can take advantage if Alabama truly does have a problem in the secondary and the Ole’ Miss defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average in two games against FBS teams Vanderbilt and Texas (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model doesn’t really apply since each team has played just 3 games and I threw out Mississippi’s game against SE Missouri State because their starters played less than a half in that game. But, the math based on this year’s games only would favor Alabama by only 7 ½ points and my ratings favor the Tide by just 10 ½ points. I’m still not eager to go against Alabama given their 38-18 ATS record since 2008 in games when they’re not favored by 30 points or more but I’ll lean with the Rebels here.
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Florida (-12½) 33 KENTUCKY 21SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The season ending injury to Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel could be a blessing for the Gators based on Tyler Murphy’s debut last week in relief. Murphy completed 8 or 14 passes, which is only mediocre, but his 84 yards on 10 runs is an added dimension that Driskel didn’t possess. I imagine the Gators will run the ball a lot in this game, which should serve them well given Kentucky’s poor run defense (5.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average defense. My math model projects close to 500 total yards at 6.5 yppl for the Gators in this game. Florida’s defense has been among the best in the nation in allowing just 3.9 yppl (to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) but Kentucky’s offense has been fantastic in averaged 7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl. Kentucky’s numbers are a bit skewed by the 675 yards at 9.3 yppl they gained against Miami-Ohio but they averaged 7.0 yppl against Western Kentucky and 5.5 yppl against a very gold Louisville defense, so the Wildcats have been good offensively in all 3 of their games. The math calls for a more modest 5.4 yppl for Kentucky in this game and overall the math projects Florida by 12 and a higher scoring than expected contest.
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OHIO STATE (-6½) 28 Wisconsin 23SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I’m not sure I’ve seen a better rushing attack that the one Wisconsin has had through the first 4 games this season. The Badgers have averaged 354 ground yards at 8.3 yards per rushing play while facing a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team. That is incredible production and Ohio State’s sturdy defensive front will have their hands full. Then again, Wisconsin hasn’t faced a defensive front as good as Ohio State’s, although the Badgers ran right through Arizona State and their All-American defensive tackle a couple of weeks ago. My math model projects a more modest 235 yards at 6.0 yprp for Wisconsin in this game to go along with 136 passing yards at 5.4 yards per pass play for Joel Stave.
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Ohio State gets Braxton Miller back at quarterback and I’m actually not sure that’s a good thing for the Buckeyes. Backup Kenny Guiton played well in Miller’s place and proved to be a very effective runner and efficient passer. Miller was just average from a yards per pass play perspective last season but he runs well too and the Buckeyes have very good running backs. Overall, Ohio State averaged 508 yards at 6.8 yards per play in 3 games against FBS teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so they’re not much better than last year’s offense that was only 0.6 yppl better than average. Wisconsin has a very good defensive that’s yielded just 4.0 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average stop unit and overall the Badgers are better on both sides of the ball. Ohio State does have a significant advantage in special teams. Overall, my math model favors Ohio State by just 4 points but the situation does favor the Buckeyes a bit.
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Stanford (-10) 24 Washington State 17 (at Seattle)PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If this were a true home game I would have made Washington State a Best Bet but the Cougars have not performed well in their annual Seattle game and I counted this as a neutral site. There would have been numerous very strong situations favoring WSU had this been a true home game but I still like the Cougars even if I decide there is no home advantage at all. Washington State has taken their lumps defensively the last few years as coach Mike Leach played a lot of younger players but that defense is older and experienced and is playing very well. The Cougars have allowed just 4.0 yards per play to a schedule of 4 teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and they’ve held their last 3 opponents to 3.6 yppl or less, including a 10-7 win at USC in which the Trojans gained just 193 yards at 3.1 yppl. Stanford has a good offense that’s averaged 6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack but I think the Cougars’ defense has the advantage in this match up.
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Stanford’s defense also has an advantage and the strength of the Cardinal stop unit is defending the pass. Stanford has yielded only 5.0 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.0 yppp against an average team and holding good passing teams San Jose State and Arizona State to a combined 5.0 yppp is very impressive. Stanford’s defense is not a good match up for a Washington State team that throws the ball 75% of the time and is not particularly good at doing so. Cougars’ quarterback Connor Halliday has averaged 6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB but he’s thrown 8 interceptions in 4 games to continue a career with a greater than 4% interception rate.
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The defensive units have the advantage in this game and the math favors Stanford by 9 points if I consider this a neutral site and by 7 ½ points if it’s a home-neutral site. Either way, I lean with Washington State and the under.
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OREGON (-36) 62 California 21SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I took a long look at Oregon this week on the basis of a 154-69-1 ATS statistical matchup indicator that work with huge favorites. Oregon’s offense looks unstoppable and Cal’s defense can’t stop anyone. The Bears have allowed 42 points per game on 560 yards at 7.5 yppl and that includes giving up 8.1 yppl and 30 points to Portland State. Oregon has averaged 61 points on 672 yards at 9.3 yppl, which are amazing numbers considering they averaged 8.6 yppl against Virginia and Tennessee, who are not bad defensive teams. Cal’s defense has been plagued by injuries to key starters but the Bears will get top defender LB Chris McCain back and could also have the services of Nick Forbes and Brennan Scarlett, two starters that haven’t played yet this season (both are listed as questionable). Cal’s defense can’t possibly be as bad as it has been and the Bears are a better than average offensive team but I still think Oregon is a pretty good bet here.
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Fresno State (-18½) 36 HAWAII 22SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno State hasn’t been very impressive so far this season despite being 3-0 and ranked in the Top-25, as 2 of their wins were by just 1 point (Rutgers and Boise State) and the Bulldogs are 0-3 ATS. Fresno has also been outgained 483 yards at 5.8 yards per play to 507 yards at 6.1 yppl – although the defense has been much better after playing horribly in week 1 against Rutgers. Hawaii is a terrible offensive team and all 4 of their quarterbacks have sucked so Fresno should have no trouble winning this game. However, Hawaii does have a slightly better than average defense and my math model gives the Warriors a 53% chance of covering.
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NORTH CAROLINA (-12½) 30 East Carolina 19
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My math model favors North Carolina by 14 ½ points but East Carolina applies to an 84-36 ATS road dog revenge situation that will have me leaning slightly their way. What really looks good here is the Under (61 points). East Carolina is 0.9 yards per play worse than average while North Carolina is 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. On the other side of that ball, the Tarheels are just average offensively so far this season while ECU’s defense has allowed just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The defenses have the advantage and the projected number of plays in this game is slightly lower than average. The average total points is 55.4 points so it makes no sense that two teams that are better on defense than on offense and are expected to play at an average pace would have a total that is higher than the national average of total points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion in this game.
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PITTSBURGH (-5) 35 Virginia 24
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This game is a battle of weakness versus weakness and strength versus strength. Pittsburgh has been great offensively, averaging 482 yards at 7.9 yards per play and quarterback Tom Savage has completed 65% of his passes for 9.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 6.2 yppp to an average team. Virginia, however, has a very good pass defense that’s allowed just 37% completions and limited BYU and Oregon to just 5.1 yppp (those teams would average 6.8 yppp against an average defensive team). If Pitt can post decent passing numbers against that secondary then the Panthers should be able to score a good number of points given that their rushing attack (210 yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play) should work fine against a mediocre Virginia run defense.
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The other side of the ball pits weakness against weakness as Virginia’s pathetic offense (just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) goes up against a Pitt defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl to 3 teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Pitt should win that battle, as they proved that they could stop a bad defense when they limited New Mexico to just 4.1 yppl in week 3 (good offensive teams Florida State and Duke exploited them for 8.2 yppl). Overall the math favors Pitt to come away with the win and mostly likely the cover.
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NC STATE (-23½) 38 Central Michigan 18
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I can’t see NC State being too fired up for this game and there is some line value in favor of Central Michigan given that Cooper Rush has been a huge upgrade at quarterback the last 3 weeks. Rush has averaged 6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback and NC State is a bit worse than average defending the pass, allowing 5.9 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 5.7 yppp against an average team. My math model favors the Wolfpack by just 20 points despite the Chippewas’ horrible pass defense (I project 286 passing yards at 8.7 yppp for NC State).
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Connecticut (pick) 28 BUFFALO 25
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Connecticut is a much better team than Buffalo and my math model gives the Huskies a 55.6% chance of covering this game but Buffalo applies to a 23-3 ATS situation and a 56-26-5 ATS situation that kept me from taking a longer look at U Conn.
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Kent State (-1½) 28 WESTERN MICHIGAN 21
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I took a long look at Kent State earlier this week when they were a 2 ½ point underdog and I wish I would have bet them then because the line has moved to -1 ½ points. Kent is still the value side here, as my math model still gives Kent a 53% chance of covering based purely on the math and Western Michigan applies to a 27-83-1 ATS conference home opener situation.
Red Dog Sports
E Carolina at N Carolina
Play: Under 61
These two played a 27-6 game last year. ECU has been off and may struggle to run and pass against UNC. The Tar Heels led Georgia Tech 20-7 last week and ended up losing the game. The Yellow Jackets were able to run the ball in the second half and control the clock, which led to an under. I expect UNC to focus on defense and learn from how Virginia Tech played ECU. ECU does have a solid QB in Shane Carden but the Tar Heel defense saw him last week and Carden is not a dangerous runner as Vad Lee was last week.
Nelly
New Mexico + over UNLV
UNLV has won back-to-back games but the numbers on the road are simply awful for this program. New Mexico is 1-2 on the year and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Last season UNLV won 35-7 as the Lobos allowed 530 yards in this matchup. New Mexico is one of the top rushing teams in the nation which will make the Lobos an attractive home underdog. The last road win for UNLV came at New Mexico but it was back in 2009 as this team has lost 23 road games in a row. UNLV has clear experience edges but bad things just seem to happen to this team on the road, like allowing three non-offensive touchdowns in the opener at Minnesota. New Mexico figures to have an edge on the ground and that could be enough for the Lobos to get a key win. The winner of this game could be seriously alive in the bowl hunt even though these programs have had little recent success. UNLV is on a 13-40-2 ATS run in road games while New Mexico can be a threat at home as the program has shown great improvement quickly under Bob Davie.
Bruce Marshall
Stanford vs. Washington State
Pick: Washington State
It appears Mike Leach was right when he said his defense and supporting ground game were improved TY as ascending Wazzu has won last three SU and covered all four on the board, with spread win streak now at five dating to last year’s Apple Cup. Meanwhile, smashmouth Stanford has not been terribly reliable handling numbers lately, especially as chalk, covering just 5 of last 14 when favored. As long as Coug QB Connor Halliday limits his mistakes and avoids the costly pick, Leach's team stays close in Seattle.
Nick Parsons
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Pick: Tampa Bay
Tampa would commit a season-high three errors in yesterday's 6-3 loss to the Blue Jays.
The setback means that the Rays are now tied for the top wild-card spot with the Tribe, who won their eighth-straight last night.
"One of those games," Ray's manager Joe Maddon said afterwards. "We've been on a pretty good run. Go get a good night's sleep and come back tomorrow."
Chris Archer (9-7, 3.21 ERA)
Archer gave up four earned runs off five hits while striking out seven over just 4 1/3's innings vs. the Orioles on Monday.
It wasn't the 25-year olds best outing, but there's no question that the Rays are very pleased with his overall performance.
Archer will now try to get untracked on the road, a place he's posted a very respectable 3.46 ERA thus far.
JA Happ (4-6, 5.15 ERA)
Happ gave up three runs off eight hits, including two home runs and three walks over five innings in a loss to Chicago on Monday.
Note that Happ owns a pretty unremarkable 1-5, 4.32 ERA home record this year.
The Bottom Line
Before yesterday's loss, the Rays had allowed four runs or fewer in seven-straight contests.
A bounce-back is in order though as many of Tampa's sluggers have teed off against Happ; Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and James Loney are a combined 12 for 22 off him.
Longoria is 8 for 17 with two home runs and eight RBIs over his last four games; Zobrist is 8 for his last 20.
With playoff implications on the line, I look for the "better" team to come out on top.
Consider laying the price.
Jimmy Boyd
Miami (Fla) -16
The Miami Hurricanes outmatch South Florida from almost every angle in this game. The offense is scoring 44 points per game, while South Florida is scoring a mere 12.3 points per game. The Hurricane's defense has held opponents to 9.7 points per game while the Bulls have been atrocious on defense, allowing 34 points per game.
These teams have a common opponent this season, having played Florida Atlantic. The Hurricanes dominated that game with a 34-6 score, while the Bulls were blown out with a 10-28 final score. Miami also has an impressive win over Florida this season, and have played a much stronger strength of schedule. The Bulls have been outscored by two touchdowns or more in all three of their games and Miami will be their strongest opponent of the season.
Kyle Hunter
USC vs. Arizona State
Play: Under 49½
The USC Trojans offense has been awful all season, but this USC defense is elite. The Trojans are giving up only 11 points per game this season. Arizona State's offense is good, but this will be the best defense they have played against this year. The Sun Devils defense isn't top-notch, but I think they are good enough to keep this USC offense under control. At 49.5, I like the under in this one. This feels like a 24-17 type of game. Look for this one to stay under the posted total. Take the under.
Rob Vinciletti
South Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -16½
The Volunteers have destroyed Sun Belt teams going 7-0 with 6 spread wins over the past few Years, Including a nice 5* Winner for us earlier in the year over Western Kentucky. Today they take on a South Alabama team off back to back dog wins. The last of which was a home dog win that's sets them up in a negative Power System that plays against road dogs of 17 or more that are off a home dog win and scored 35 or more points while allowing 21 or more points. Tennessee will look to rebound off a pair of losses to Oregon and Florida. Coach Butch Jones is 12-0 to the spread after getting out Gained by 125+ yards in his last game. Look for Tennessee to get back on track today.