John Martin
Colorado/Oregon State Over 58
Both Colorado and Oregon State feature high-powered offenses led by two of the best passing attacks in the country. Oregon State is averaging 41.5 points per game behind 3rd-ranked passing offense in the nation at 420.8 yards per game. Colorado is putting up 39.5 points per game behind the 7th-ranked passing offense in the country at 370.5 yards per game.
Neither team has been good defensively, either. Oregon State is allowing 35.2 points and 432.0 total yards per game. Colorado, which has played two weak offenses in Colorado State and Central Arkansas, is giving up 25.5 points per game. Now they finally face a legit offense and will give up a big number to the Beavers, who have gone 22-for-22 in red zone opportunities while scoring 18 touchdowns to only four field goals.
This is a very generous total from the books as this game should sail OVER the 58-point mark by the end of the 3rd quarter. Take the OVER 58 in this game as Saturday's free play. Be sure to sign up for my NCAA Football 15-Pack as well, which is previewed below:
Eddie J
Mississippi at Alabama
Pick: Mississippi
Ol Miss will look to shock the world on Saturday when they face #1 Alabama. Alabama hasn't impressed me much this season and Ol Miss is a dangerous team. Bama doesn't have much success against mobile QB's and even tho Bo Wallace isn't your typical running QB he will present problems when he scrambles.Ol Miss has the better ranked offense and the better ranked defense. Ol Miss has averaged 490 yards per game to 370 for Bama and has allowed 332 compared to 373 for Bama.Ol Miss will spread the ball around to their top 3 receivers led by WR Donte Moncrief and will run the ball with RB Jeff Scott averaging 9.4 yards a clip. Ol Miss is 7-3 ATS L10 against Bama and have scored 43 points a game on the road this year. Call me crazy but Ol Miss will shock the world and beat Alabama SU on Saturday. They will at least cover the 14.5.
Charlie Scott
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Virginia +5.5
Since getting blown out by Florida St Labor Day Weekend, Pitt has managed to put up some nice numbers vs cream puff defense's. That won't be the case Today as Virginia has a good Defense. I don't believe Pitt is good enough to be laying points vs Teams like Virginia that play defense and can run the ball on offense. When Pitt QB Savage is under pressure by a pass rush he generally makes poor decisions that lead to Turn Overs.
Bob Balfe
Navy -3.5
Turnovers. That is all this game comes down to. Navy has a bunch of smart players who don’t turn the football over and their running game is hard to stop if you are not a big named program with a defensive coordinator who has a good game plan to stop them. Western Kentucky has turned the ball over 15 times this year and they were against teams that really are not that good. 2 subdivision schools and 2 bottom of the run SEC schools. I just don’t think Western Kentucky will have an answer to this Navy ground attack. If you are turning the ball over and giving them more chances then it just becomes a blowout. Take Navy.
SPORTS WAGERS
CENTRAL FLORIDA +6½ over South Carolina
After games against Georgia and Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks step out of conference here against Central Florida in a game that starts at noon. South Carolina gets back to SEC play next week with a game against Kentucky. Additionally, traveling for a noon start after a bye week is something these Gamecocks are not used to at all. These college kids become really unpredictable when put in a situation that they’re completely unfamiliar with and that applies here to USC. We’ve seen big upsets happen all the time in spots just like this vulnerable one that USC is in, that being, traveling off a bye, out of conference and an early start. Furthermore, we continually warn you about spotting road points with ranked teams against unranked teams simply because of the inflated price tag in a market that prefers favorites to dogs.
UCF has some swagger these days. The Knights are off to their first 3-0 start as an FBS program and they’re coming off a nice 34-31 win over Penn State. They, too, are coming off a bye but the difference is the Knights are at home and we can guarantee you that this one to them is a lot more important than they are to USC. Focus or lack thereof is not an issue. USF is a program on the rise. It brings coaching stability, recruiting success and championships. The Knights once struggled for winning seasons and consistency, but they won 10 games last season and 11 in 2010. You can point to the UCF recruiting class of 2010 as perhaps a turning point for the program. Eight players from that class are starters, including quarterback Blake Bortles and three offensive linemen. A win here would be one of the programs biggest and they couldn’t have handpicked a better week to catch the Gamecocks napping. It’s worth noting that while UCF is only 1-5 at home since 2007 against teams from BCS conferences, those five losses came by an average of just eight points per game and this just might be the best Knights team ever to take the field. Definite upset possibility.
California +38 over OREGON
The Ducks are coming off a bye week and new coach Mark Helfrich handled it much differently than his predecessor, Chip Kelly. Without going to deep details, it is still a big difference inside the program. That’s one of those intangibles than can’t be measured of the football field. That's enough for us to test the waters fading these Ducks, as they lay better than a five-touchdown price to a high-octane Cal outfit that has one of a big underdog's most valuable assets: backdoor-cover firepower. Oregon's secondary looks like the Pac-12's best, but it hasn't been tested at all this season with three wins over three cupcakes.
No question, Oregon will get their points but monster favorites are always unappealing plays versus opponents with Cal's big-play chops. Even a 49-point lead going to the fourth quarter will not be comfortable for Oregon backers, as the Ducks will pull in the reins at that point and allow the Golden Bears some garbage time. We’re not suggesting for a minute that it will come down to that, as California has already played two ranked teams in Northwestern and Ohio State and racked up 503 yards against the former, losing by 18 but not looking a bit out of place. In the season opener, Cal was down by three to Northwestern going to the fourth quarter and eventually lost by 14 but again, they did not look out of place. This is a ton of wood to be spotting a jacked up Bears squad that has to be insulted by this number. This could be an easy cover.
UAB +20 over VANDERBILT
Second-year Blazers coach Garrick McGee has UAB on the rise and soon the Blazers will be a regular bowl entrant out of a watered-down Conference USA. A seasoned roster will improve upon both UAB's 3-9 record and 5-7 ATS mark from a year ago. The Blazers picked up their first victory last week with a convincing win over Northwestern State and one win does wonders for a teams’ psyche. UAB lost its opener in OT to Troy but there were plenty of positives taken from that loss. They then played perennial powerhouse LSU prior to last week’s win. UAB has a solid tailback in Darrin Reaves and a big-play passing game with three of the top four receivers averaging better than 18 yards per catch.
Vandy backdoor covered against the Gamecocks two weeks ago (they were down 28-0) and failed to cover as a huge favorite over UMass last week. Our plan to fade the Commodores relentlessly kicks in this week. Serious national attention on the Vanderbilt rape scandal is front page news and we’re convinced that it is on the verge of ripping the team apart from the inside and the ‘Dores are headed for a lost season. The Commodores also have a big game on deck against SEC rival, Missouri and whatever focus they do have will be directed to next week. The marketplace has failed to recognize the troubles within this Vanderbilt program and that allows us to step in and take back a sweet price on a very live pup.
UTSA +125 over Houston
You may look at this and not even know who UTSA is. For those who do not, they are the Texas San Antonio Road Runners, the newest member of Conference USA and we’ve been following this team closely waiting for the right spot to play them in. We’ll get back to them in a minute. UTSA’s opponent here is the well-known program from Houston that ran a high octane offense for years and that has appeared in several Bowl games (20 to be exact) with many of those as a long-time member of C-USA. Now this undefeated and recognized Houston program is a small 2½-point choice over a school that nobody knows. It looks too easy and the masses will eat this number up and spot it. Don’t follow suit.
The Roadrunners are 2-2 after games against New Mexico, #13 Oklahoma State, Arizona and UTEP. They are 2-2 with losses coming to OSU and Arizona, who are a combined 6-0. Against the Cowboys, the ‘Runners racked up 504 yards of offense and scored 35 points. Larry Coker's third UTSA edition is a capable, veteran team with a super quarterback in Eric Soza and good skill talent around him. The Roadrunners have a clear identity in all phases and do not beat themselves. UTSA will now play its second home game with a 2-2 record and they figure to leave nothing on the table. The Cougars still have some dangerous offensive playmakers, but are generally an inefficient outfit prone to self-inflicted wounds and they are not the better team in this one. Houston gets exposed here to the shock of many.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees -1½ +102 over HOUSTON
The Yankees have nothing to play for but in this one single game they are going to show up extremely focused and give it everything they have in an attempt to get Andy Pettitte a win in the final start of his Hall-of Fame career. No pitcher in the storied history of the Yankees won more big games than Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has been one of baseball’s most consistent winners over the past 18 years. How fitting is it that he closes out his career in Houston, a half hour from Deer Park, where Pettitte grew up. One can only imagine the number of friends, family, fans and supporters that will be at Minute Maid Park today to witness Pettitte’s final start. Then there’s this: Andy Pettitte is 10-11 this season. A win today would put him at 11-11 and make him the only pitcher in the history of the game with 18 or more years to never post a losing record. The New York Yankees will treat this one like a playoff game in support of one of the classiest pitchers to ever wear a major-league uniform. The Yanks face a stiff here in Paul Clemens and it’s truly difficult to imagine this one being anything other than a blowout. Hell, even the Astros might be rooting for Pettitte.
Pittsburgh +121 over CINCINNATI
The Pirates proved again last night that they belong. Needing to win two out of three here to host the Wild Card game, Pittsburgh took the opener last night and we like the Bucs chances of winning this one with Charlie Morton going. For whatever reason, Morton loves pitching in Cincinnati. He has a 0.39 ERA in winning his last three starts here, which include two of his three career complete games. He's tossed 14.1 scoreless innings over his last two appearances at Great American Ball Park, including one this season back on June 18. Morton has been one of MLB's most dominating pitchers during his second half return from 2012 Tommy John surgery: 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.4 K’s per nine and a 65% groundball rate. And he's more than a groundball machine. Morton has a 94 mph average four-seam fastball and he faces a Reds’ squad that is seeing BB’s right now. Cincinnati has dropped three in a row in which they’ve scored three runs, have batted .196 and have one hit in 17 AB’s with RISP.
Bronson Arroyo quietly posted some of the top skills of any NL starting pitcher in August with 8.5 K’s per nine, 0.5 walks per nine and a 47% groundball rate. Then September rolled around and Arroyo has gone back to being the average pitcher he’s always been. The Reds have lost three of Arroyo’s last four starts. With an 87 mph fastball and low swinging strike rate, his numbers of K’s in August was just one of those unexplainable, fluky streaks. Arroyo’s xERA over his last five starts is 4.73 and that’s the barometer you should be using instead of his actual ERA of 3.60. Arroyo continues to eat innings and he’s definitely serviceable but he’s the second best pitcher in this match-up and he’s absolutely overpriced. All the value here is on the hotter team and the much better pitcher.
BRAD WILTON
Your free play winner this Saturday will be the Duke Blue Devils to bounce-back before the Trojans of Troy do.
Both schools suffered ugly losses last Saturday, as Duke allowed a whopping 58 points at home to Pittsburgh, but the Devils did at least score 55 points of their own in finding the back-door as the +4 1/2 point underdog.
The same cannot be said for Troy, as the Trojans were run over in Starkville by Miss State, 62-7!
This is the third week in a row on the road for Troy, and they are just 6-13 against the spread their last 19 non-conference contests. Look for the Trojans to lose touch with a Duke team that has been a pretty good "bully" when asked to cover an impost, as Duke has run off 7 in a row against the spread under David Cutcliffe when listed as the chalk.
I am calling for a 2 touchdown win and cover for the Blue Devils who stop their 2 game slide and get back going in the right direction.
3* DUKE
Your Saturday free play winner will the Golden Gophers on Minnesota as they play host to conference rivals Iowa this Saturday afternoon.
They call this matchup the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale, and for those of you unfamiliar, it is the bronze trophy of the pig the Hawkeyes and Gophers do battle for annually.
Home field has sure meant something when going for the pig trophy, as the host has won and covered the last 4 in this rivalry.
Going to lean to the host once again in this near pick contest, as both teams do come in playing some solid football, as the Hawkeyes have won their last 3 since an opening week upset loss to Northern Illinois, while the Golden Gophers have won all 4 of their games played on this season's schedule.
Minny itching for payback after losing 31-13 last season in Iowa City.
Home team trends hold serve one more time on Saturday. Play on the Golden Gophers.
4* MINNESOTA
BRETT ATKINS
My free winner for Saturday's college football card is on the Idaho Vandals plus the points at home against visiting Temple, as I think the Owls will have a tough time traveling West, and a very tough time in the altitude.
Yes, the Vandals are 0-4 after losing at Washington State last weekend. And yes, the Cougars blanked Idaho, which has now been outscored by a collective final of 169-51. However, the Vandals have played three of their first four games on the road and they're playing an Independent schedule before joining the Sun Belt next year.
On the other hand, the Owls arrive in Moscow, Idaho after a bye week, but that came after an 0-3 start to the season. Temple lost to Notre Dame, Houston and Fordham. Of all seven losses between the two teams, Fordham has to be the most embarrassing.
Now the Owls try to rebound by coming into a hostile environment, where the Vandals crowd will be celebrating Homecoming. And since both teams have experienced major issues on defense – Idaho ranks 118th in total defense (520 yards per game) and 120th in scoring defense (42.3), while Temple is ranked 119th in total defense (529 per outing) despite giving up 26.7 points per game - I have to believe the team in worse trouble will be the road team.
Idaho has been better tested and is going to challenge for the outright win. Take the home underdog.
5* IDAHO
CRAIG DAVIS
Free play of the day on the Georgia/LSU game to go over the posted total this afternoon between the hedges.
In past seasons, the Georgia offense has always been its strength while the defense has been good but mostly along for the ride.
In LSU, however, they've been built more on their defense and allowed the offense to come along for the ride.
But this year it appears to be exactly the opposite for the LSU Tigers... as their offense has carried them to their perfect record thus far while the defense has been just good enough to keep them in games.
Long gone are the days of Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne and The Honey Badger. Now the offense with Zach Mettenberger, a lifelong Georgia fan, by the way, is going to decide just how far this team goes.
LSU's run game is also dominating, averaging 221 yards per game on the ground... and now that RB Jeremy Hill is back in the mix, this offense is just plain scary.
Mettenberger has a two-headed monster in the receiving corps who can pull down a long pass at any given moment. Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. have both had tremendous games this season, and their overall numbers just continue to get better.
This might be the most balanced offense Les Miles has had in Baton Rouge during his tenure and they will definitely put up some points on the Bulldogs this afternoon.
Georgia, on the other hand, has been just plain bad on defense, but they make up for it by dominating on offense with Aaron Murray and company.
Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall have been flat out sick in the run game, which has allowed Murray to execute the play-action game to perfection. If you're a defense, do you key on these two runners or do you stop Aaron Murray?
Pick your poison.
It's funny... but these two teams are almost mirror images of each other and it should be a fun game to watch.
That's why I like it to go OVER the posted total as your free play of the day.
2* LSU-GEORGIA OVER
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Northern Illinois Huskies as they take their 3-0 mark on the road to West Lafayette to play the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue coach Darrell Hazell is quite familiar with the Huskies attack from his days as the head coach at Kent State, but being familiar with someone, and actually stopping them are two different things!
PU is off to a 1-3 start both straight up and against the spread under Hazell, and they have twice allowed over 40 points to be scored against them through 4 weeks.
NIU's attack has put up an average of just over 39 points per game in going 3-0, so figure on the Huskies Jordan Lynch engineering enough scoring opportunities for the visitors to get this cover as the away favorite.
Northern Illinois is on a 4-2-1 spread run as the road favorite since last season, and they have done a fine job stepping up against the Big Ten conference, covering 7 of their last 8. Purdue meanwhile, is on a 4-10 spread slide their last 14 dating back to last season.
Huskies to come up with the big road win and cover here on Saturday.
2* NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Georgia/LSU game to go over the posted total this afternoon between the hedges.
In past seasons, the Georgia offense has always been its strength while the defense has been good but mostly along for the ride.
In LSU, however, they've been built more on their defense and allowed the offense to come along for the ride.
But this year it appears to be exactly the opposite for the LSU Tigers... as their offense has carried them to their perfect record thus far while the defense has been just good enough to keep them in games.
Long gone are the days of Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne and The Honey Badger. Now the offense with Zach Mettenberger, a lifelong Georgia fan, by the way, is going to decide just how far this team goes.
LSU's run game is also dominating, averaging 221 yards per game on the ground... and now that RB Jeremy Hill is back in the mix, this offense is just plain scary.
Mettenberger has a two-headed monster in the receiving corps who can pull down a long pass at any given moment. Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. have both had tremendous games this season, and their overall numbers just continue to get better.
This might be the most balanced offense Les Miles has had in Baton Rouge during his tenure and they will definitely put up some points on the Bulldogs this afternoon.
Georgia, on the other hand, has been just plain bad on defense, but they make up for it by dominating on offense with Aaron Murray and company.
Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall have been flat out sick in the run game, which has allowed Murray to execute the play-action game to perfection. If you're a defense, do you key on these two runners or do you stop Aaron Murray?
Pick your poison.
It's funny... but these two teams are almost mirror images of each other and it should be a fun game to watch.
That's why I like it to go OVER the posted total as your free play of the day.
2♦ LSU-GEORGIA OVER
Chris Jordan
Now on a 5-0 run with my free college football plays, and tonight I plan on making it six straight with the Georgia Bulldogs over the LSU Tigers. The number I see is -3 across the board, and I want you buying the half point down with this game.
It was very nice of ESPN's Gameday crew to shed some exposure to FCS-powerhouse North Dakota State, but this week the semi-trucks and Home Depot set is where college football reeks: Athens, Georgia. The ninth-ranked Bulldogs and No. 6 LSU will get it on at Sanford Stadium, and I think the Dawgs are going to be ready to challenge the Tigers.
The Bulldogs check into this one after rain-soaked, 45-21 win over North Texas, and while some might like to believe the victory was marred by mistakes that allowed the Mean Green to tie the game early in the second half, I simply think the Dawgs did what they had to do get the W, and will move on efficiently, and make the right adjustments to play mistake-free football tonight.
The Bulldogs have covered five consecutive intraconference games and 7 of their last 10 overall. Conversely, LSU is mired in ATS slides of 3-7 against SEC teams, 1-4 in September and 2-5 overall.
3♦ GEORGIA
Doug Upstone
SMU +17½
SMU junior RB Traylon Shead returns to the lineup after missing the last two games and that should really help senior QB Garrett Gilbert and the Mustang offense become more balanced and sustain some drives. It's never good when your starting QB is also your leading rusher. Old rivals oftentimes play close games, even when it's not expected. Take the 17h with SMU Saturday afternoon.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON -105 over Toronto
We could break down all the X’s and O’s in this game and make a good case for the Argonauts. After all, Toronto has been pure money with three wins and covers in a row and they were getting points in all of them. Had you been betting against Toronto, you’re not likely to bet against them here. Edmonton has won two straight but so what, as they’ve defeated the self-destructive Bombers both times and had no business winning last week’s game.
Good teams find ways to win and the Double Blue have been doing just that. But this isn’t about that. This one is all about fading the Argonauts in a very difficult spot. The CFL is a league of two seasons and a grueling 18 games. There is the first half when games matter but it’s been said that the CFL real season doesn’t seriously kick in until Labour Day. The Argos lost that Labour Day weekend match to Montreal but as mentioned above they’ve won three in a row since. What makes this one so unusual is that the Argos will now play their fourth straight game on the road and third game in succession to the West Coast. That’s after defeating the Stampeders and Riders in their previous two. That type of schedule is almost unfair and to expect the Boatmen to be sharp today after road wins against the CFL’s two strongest clubs would be unreasonable. The Eskies are a dangerous group that is very capable of putting up plenty of points against anyone. Edmonton couldn’t have asked for a better situation when having to face the Argonauts and we’re strongly suggesting that Eskies will take advantage of a fatigued and somewhat complacent guest.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Louisiana Tech/ Army Under 55.5: Last week I had a big play on the Under in the La Tech/ Kansas game and it didn't disappoint as the game put up just 23 points. I will come right back with the Under here. Last week's game had a total of 51 and this one is at 55.5, which I feel is way too high. Army is a running team which will eat plenty of clock, plus they only score 18.3 ppg on the year. The Bulldog offense is not the juggernaut they were last year, as they are averaging just 16.5 ppg so far, while improving on the defensive side, allowing just 22.8 ppg. Last year their games averaged 89 ppg, but this year their games have put up just 39.3 ppg, with non of their games scoring more than 54 points. Army games have averaged 46.1 ppg, with none of their games topping 54 points either. Very confusing line and that it has gone up is even more confusing, because nothing at all indicates that this one will top 50 points, let alone 55.5.
Navy/ Western Kentucky Over 57.5: This game just screams shootout. The Navy offense has been unstoppable so far, ranking 10th in the nation in total offense (552 ypg) and 1st in rushing offense (398 yog) while putting up 46 ppg (9th). I know they have played just FCS foe Delaware and Indiana so far, but they are taking on a below average WKU defense that is 96th in the nation vs the run (195.5 ypg) and that allows 31.2 ppg on the year. Offensively the Hilltoppers have been solid this year, averaging 473.8 ypg and 34.2 ppg, and should really get their fair share of points vs a Navy defense that is not the best. The Midshippmen have allowed just 21 ppg points, but they do allowed yards (408..5 ypg) and they are 100th vs the pass, allowing 271 ypg. Navy's games have average 67 ppg, while WKU's games have put up 65.3 ppg, plus we note that the Over is 7-1 in WKU's last 8 home games. Really hard to see this game staying under 60 points.
ILLINOIS -24.5 over Miami (Oh): One yard. That's all that Miami gained in the 2nd half last week vs Cincinnati. Overall they gained just 87 yards in the game, while Cincinnati piled up 369 yards in the game. The Red Hawks come in ranked 125th in total offense and 123rd in total defense, and have been outgained by 395.7 ypg on the year. This is not a very good team on either side of the ball. The Fighting Illini come in with a very good offense and a defense that should have little trouble stopping this pop gun attack by the Red Hawks. Miami only lost 14-0 to Cincinnati, but they were outgained by 283 yards in the game, while Illinois beat that same Cincy squad by 28 points. Miami is just so bad this year and will probably rival teams like Idaho and New Mexico State as one of the worst teams in the nation. Ilinois is not a great team, but they are at home and need to build confidence heading into Big 10 play, so I look for them to have an easy 30 point plus win here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Wyoming -12 over TEXAS STATE: Really hard to go against the Pokes in this one. They are firing on all cylinders and Brent Smith is one of the hottest QB's in the nation right now. The Cowboy's passing offense that averages 330.5 ypg will be going up against a Bobcat pass defense that is dead last in the nation, allowing 331 ypg. Ouch. The Bobcats don't nearly have the Offense that will be able to keep pace in this game. Texas State is 118th in total offense, 115th in passing offense and 103rd in scoring at 19 ppg. Really a bad offense overall and we know that Wyoming will score plenty of points vs that bad pass defense. The Cowboys are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Wyoming by at least 17 in this one.
BALL STATE -1.5 over Toledo: Toledo is not the offensive juggernaut that they once were as they are averaging 6 ppg less than last year and 17 ppg less than 2 years ago. This team does have 9 starters back from last year, but still it hasn't translated into more points. One this the Cardinals do know about is scoring, as they come in ranked 19th in that department, putting up 42.2 ppg on the year. Their QB is a stud and their running game is coming around, which will make this offense even more dangerous. Defensively the Rockets have been solid, but have yet to face an offense of this caliber and remember they do have just 3 starters back on that side of the ball. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS after playing Eastern Michigan and 8-0 ATS vs a team seeking revenge, including 2-0 this year, while the Rockets have gone just 2-6 ATS the last 8 in the series. Go Cardinals in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Virginia +5.5 over PITTSBURGH: I like the Cavs in this one. Pittsburgh has some offense this year, but their defense continues to get shredded. The Panthers have allowed 445 ypg, which is 103rd in the nation, while allowing 41 ppg, which is 7120th in the nation. Defense is where the Cavs have a big edge as they come in allowing just 332.7 ypg (34th), 140 ypg passing (7th) and 25 ppg (65 ppg). I expect that defense to be the deciding factor here as the Cavs pull the mini upset.