Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday September, 29

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
The Rays look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-4 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Tampa Bay is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115)

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.698; Pittsburgh (McPherson) 13.978
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under

Game 953-954: Houston at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.414; Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.986
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-250); Over

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Young) 15.638; Atlanta (Minor) 16.047
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.717; Miami (Nolasco) 14.411
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.830; St. Louis (Lohse) 17.013
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Over

Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Germano) 14.882; Arizona (Cahill) 14.480
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Under

Game 963-964: San Francisco at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.286; San Diego (Stults) 15.713
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Under

Game 965-966: Colorado at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 15.835; LA Dodgers (Blanton) 15.117
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.076; Toronto (Romero) 15.741
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+165); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Minnesota (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.112; Minnesota (Walters) 14.750
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-250); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.302; Oakland (Straily) 16.347
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-155); Over

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Odorizzi) 15.436; Cleveland (Gomez) 15.414
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under

Game 975-976: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 13.948; Baltimore (Johnson) 15.721
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-180); Under

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.709; White Sox (Sale) 15.067
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Over

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Texas (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.927; Texas (Holland) 15.971
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Over

WNBA

Connecticut at New York
The Sun look to build on their 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 road games. Connecticut is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-3 1/2)

Game 659-660: Los Angeles at San Antonio (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 116.505; San Antonio 116.342
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 172
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 167
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3 1/2); Over

Game 661-662: Connecticut at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 115.373; New York 110.536
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 5; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-3 1/2); Under

CFL

Game 295-296: Toronto at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 107.404; Winnipeg 112.032
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 4 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3); Under

Game 297-298: BC at Saskatchewan (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 119.382; Saskatchewan 115.587
Dunkel Line: BC by 4; 52
Vegas Line: BC by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: BC (-2 1/2); Over

Harry Bondi

HOUSTON (-6) over Rice

The Cougars are struggling mightily in the post-Kevin Sumlin/Case Keenum Era, losing its first three games of the season. But they had a chance to catch their breath with a bye last week and get to face a Rice team that is off a ball-busting 54-51 overtime loss to Marshall. The Owls defense is slow and despite losing some talent on offense Houston still has a ton of speed on offense. Lay the road chalk.

Wunderdog

Arkansas at Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M -14.5

It was an offseason full of distractions for Arkansas and the team is paying the price. They opened the season ranked No. 10 in the country and beat Jacksonville State in their opener but looked a bit off as they gave up 24 points and didn't come anywhere close to covering the 40 point spread. They were given a pass by most. That changed when they lost at home to UL Monroe. The Razorbacks then played Alabama at home which at the beginning of the season looked like a spot in which Alabama would be severely tested. That was far from the case as Alabama wrecked them on both sides of the ball in a 52-0 romp. Arkansas was without Tyler Wilson, but he isn't worth 52 points, as we saw last week when Arkansas lost outright to Rutgers 26-35. We cashed in on that play last week as we had Rutgers (even recommending a strong look at taking Rutgers on the moneyline). The 35 points scored by the Knights was by a limited offense. Now the Razorbacks must take to the road vs. Texas A&M. The Aggies got their SEC baptism against the Gators in week one, losing a heartbreaker 20-17. Florida has since proven to be better than many expected (we've been on them nearly every week), and the Aggies have proven that they are better than expected as well. Johny Manziel has been perfect with seven TD passes and no interceptions on the season. Meanwhile the Aggies’ top two backs are both well over 6 yards per carry. The Hogs have not been road worthy at 0-6 ATS in their last six. John L. Smith is just 2-10 ATS in his coaching career in games with a total posted at 63 or higher. Kevin Sumlin is 15-3 ATS as a home favorite in his coaching career. The Aggies are a lot better than UL Monroe and Rutgers, and this one is on the road. Lay the points with Texas A&M.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Buckeyes have treated Spartan Stadium like their own private watering hole since 1992, posting a 6-1 SU and ATS mark. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as conference road favorites or dogs of 3 or less points and that ties in nicely to the Spartans’ 0-6 ATS log at home off a spread loss of more than 6 points when the number is also between the threes (-3 to +3). MSU’s 8-1 ATS mark versus undefeated conference opposition from Game Five out is certainly a concern but the Buckeyes’ home for the holidays scenario (no Big Ten title or Bowl game) means a big effort in every conference contest this season. Even Urban Meyer, who has been damaging his non-conference pointspread reputation of late, chips in with a 10-1 ATS mark as a pick or dog versus a foe off an ATS loss by more than 3 points. Grab the points with this tried and true puppy. We recommend a 1-unit play on Ohio State.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Pick: ArkansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The start for Arkansas has been horrible. The Razorbacks opened the season with an easy win over Jacksonville St. but no one saw what was about to take shape. They lost in overtime to UL-Monroe, got annihilated by Alabama and then lost last week against Rutgers after a strong comeback near the end. The best thing for Arkansas is to get out of town and that is what it is doing this week as it heads to Texas A&M with a chance for the defense to get things back in order.
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The Aggies are coming off a couple of routs as they trounced SMU and South Carolina St. which came after a season opening loss against Florida. They are a team in transition and not only to a different conference. Texas A&M brought back just 13 starters and have a new head coach which means new systems are being put into place. The defense last season was atrocious but it is currently ranked 12 in the country in both total defense and scoring defense. Playing two cupcakes will do that.
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Despite all of the struggles, Arkansas still has a very potent offense led by Tyler Wilson who came back last week from a concussion and threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns, but did have two interceptions. He leads the nation with an average of 19.6 yards per completion and he should be able to shred the Aggies stop unit. The offense could do nothing against Alabama, no one has, and the absence of Wilson in that game did not help matters.
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The big concern however is the Razorbacks defense. They are 99th in total defense and 107th in scoring defense so stopping Texas A&M is not feasible. However, if this game turns into a shootout, which seems very likely, Arkansas has a great chance and staying well within this number. A lot of people have given up on the Razorbacks due to the horrific run but that creates value. Three weeks ago, the Razorbacks probably would have been favored here and now they are getting more than two touchdowns.
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If Arkansas can get a running game going, it will be fine as it is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Losing three straight games hurts confidence but it helps in the betting market as Arkansas is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after three or more consecutive straight up losses.

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Oregon at Washington StFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mike Leach's team comes off a narrow 35-34 win versus Colorado despite being an 18.5-point favorite -- but the Cougars (2-2) are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a point spread loss. Washington State has also proven themselves tough at home by covering 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. While quarterback Jeff Tuel has missed the last two games due to an injured right knee, Connor Halliday has filled in well. He completed 32 of 60 passes for 401 yards and 4 touchdown passes against the Buffaloes last week. The Cougars should be able to put up enough points to cover the four touchdown spread. Oregon (4-0) comes off a dominant 49-0 blowout over Arizona last week -- but they are 1-4-1 ATS after a win by at least 20 points. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This will be the first road game for Oregon this season -- and the home team has covered the spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the points with Washington State.

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Wisconsin +12FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not sold on Nebraska laying this type of number in a conference opener. Monte Ball is playing in this one and lest we forget Nebraska's nightmare in tackling against UCLA in a loss 3 weeks ago. The Huskers have mended with games against Arkansas State and Idaho State, and yes Wisconsin is down this year, but not out. NU avenging an ugly 48-17 loss last year in Camp Randall where Russel Wilson destroyed the Husker D, and NU is at home with a better throwing QB Martinez this season, and RB Burkhead is fully healhty. All that said a big step up for NU here and while I think they exact some revenge and pound the rock with success all day, the Badgers will not go down easy. Nebraska's running game the difference maker here.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa Hawkeyes -7
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Motivated by last week's 32-31 loss to Central Michigan, and further fueled by narrow defeats at Minnesota the past two seasons, expect Iowa to bounce back strong Saturday.
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Iowa led the Chippewas by eight points with just over two minutes remaining and would have won the game had it recovered an onside kick. That probably sounds familiar to Hawkeye fans because failing to recover an onside kick cost them against the Golden Gophers last season. They lost to Minnesota by one-point in a game they led by 11 in the fourth quarter. In other words, the Hawks just need to learn how to finish games. The best way to learn how to do that is by giving games away. You can bet they'll be sharp here.
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While Iowa has found ways to lose in The Land of 10,000 Lakes recently, all it has done is win at home when the Golden Gophers have visited. The Hawks have won five in a row at Kinnick Stadium against Minnesota by margins of 18, 18, 24, 5 and 12 points.
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One thing I can say with absolute certainty is that Iowa is the better team up front on both sides of the football. It has dominated the line of scrimmage in each of its last two games, and I expect no different here. Minnesota is about to get hit in the mouth by a more physical team that really wants this game.
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Iowa has been a tremendous investment off a loss. In fact, it is on a 35-15-1 ATS run in this situation. I'll lay the points.

Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas State
Play: Western Kentucky -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hilltoppers were only -104 yards vs. Alabama the #1 team in the nation as that was their only loss so far this season. They seemed to have found a balance attack offensively with Kawaun Jakes who is completing 70% of his throws and has 829 yards passing. Rushing they are able to do the same damage rushing for 369 alone a week ago against a usual good run defense in Southern Mississippi. Both Arkansas State and Western Kentucky are in the top 20 in pass defense, but Arkansas State is particularly vulnerable against the run ranked 97th allowing 5.3 ypc and have given up 220 per game on the ground. Meanwhile Western Kentucky is 22nd against the run only allowing 102.3 ypc, and 42nd 3.6 ypc. They were extremely impressive against Alabama allowing just 3.3 ypc to one of the best rushing teams in the nation.
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Basically this game comes down to who can stay on the field and convert 3rd downs. Both offenses have contrasting styles where Western Kentucky has a methodical offense dominated by time of possession, Arkansas State likes to run a quick pace scheme and get their athletes in space and allow Ryan Aplin to throw the ball. Who will win that battle? Well Western Kentucky is 28th in sack % to Arkansas States 69th ranking. Also Western Kentucky has the advantage on both sides of the ball on third down. Offensively they are ranked 22nd converting 50% while ARkansas State is 110th allowing 52.27 % conversions this season. Defensively the Hilltoppers are only 81st but ARkansas State is 57th on third down. Expect Western Kentucky who wants revenge for their only league loss last year to get revenge on the road against Arkansas State.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida State -17
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The Florida State Seminoles are one of the best teams in the country this season. They faced their first real test this season against Clemson last week, and after falling behind by two touchdowns, they came back to win 49-37.
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The Seminoles did whatever they wanted to offensively, racking up 657 total yards on the Tigers with 287 on the ground and 380 through the air. This team showed that it was one of the most talented in the country, and if not for a few early mistakes, it would have been an even bigger blowout. FSU outgained Clemson by 231 yards in the game.
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FSU is now off to a 4-0 start, outscoring opponents 56.2 to 10.0, and outgaining them 574-184. Now battle-tested, the Seminoles are ready to go into South Florida and revenge a 7-17 loss to the Bulls the last time these two teams played each other.
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The Bulls were expected to be one of the best teams in the Big East this season, but they look like anything but a contender in the conference. South Florida has opened 2-2, and one of its victories came by a single point. It lost 13-23 at home against Rutgers, and fell 27-31 at Ball State over the last two weeks.
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South Florida has all kinds of issues defensively after allowing 424 total yards to the Scarlet Knights, and 413 total yards to the Cardinals. If the Bulls could not stop those two teams, they have no chance of being able to slow down this high-powered Seminoles' attack. I look for FSU to continue pouring on the points for four quarters and to easily cover this soft spread.
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The Bulls are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. South Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. South Florida is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Bet Florida State Saturday.

Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota +7.5
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Not only do I think Minnesota will cover the spread here, but I think the Golden Gophers have an excellent shot of winning this game outright.
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Iowa's only real convincing win this season is a 27-16 win over Northern Iowa, who is a member of the FCS! Even that game wasn't in the bag until the final minutes. The Hawkeyes needed a last minute touchdown to escape their opener with a 18-17 win over Northern Illinois. They then lost at home to Iowa State 6-9 in a game that they were luckily to even be in. If it wasn't for four Iowa State turnovers, including two in the redzone, they would have lost that game by 3 scores! If that isn't enough to convince you that the Hawkeyes shouldn't be laying a touchdown against any FBS team, they were just upset at home by Central Michigan!
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Now you are trying to tell me they are going to beat a Minnesota team by more than a touchdown. I don't think so. Minnesota has won two straight in the series against a much better Iowa team than the one that will take the field this Saturday.
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Minnesota is off to a 4-0 start with impressive wins over Western Michigan and Syracuse. Second year head coach Jerry Kill is quietly turning this program around. They already knocked off both Western Michigan and Syracuse, who would each have their way with this Iowa team.
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Central Michigan came into last weeks game against Iowa with one of the worst offenses in the country, yet they were able to march the ball up and down the field against the Iowa defense. Minnesota is averaging over 400 yards of total offense and I simply can't see Iowa's defense doing much to keep them off the scoreboard.

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Akron +3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami is 2-2 but 0-4 ATS (Against the spread). Miami just played small college team UMass and allowed 188 yards rushing. Miami also lost a key wide receiver earlier in the year due to an injury.
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Akron just played at Tennessee and lost but the score was 30-26 at the start of the 4th quarter. Akron is coached by Terry Bowden, whose dad was the Florida State coach for many years. He is in his first year and is well known for turning teams around. Akron QB is Dalton Williams. He transferred from Stephen F. Austin and has done well except for last week at Tennessee, where he had three interceptions.
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Chisolm and Hines have been able to run the ball for The Zips. Akron lost their home opener to a good Central Florida team but won their last home game by 66-6 over Morgan State.
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I think Akron has a good chance to win outright on Saturday but take the points in this home underdog.

Bobby ConnFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. Georgia
Play: Tennessee +13½
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The Vols have lost three straight at the pay window and come into this game slightly undervalued. Yes, they played poorly last week against Akron but why wouldn't they have been looking ahead to Georgia this week? The Bulldogs have looked susceptible to the pass and with Tyler Bray under center for Tennessee I think they'll put up enough points to stay within this big number.

Brad DiamondFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. Georgia
Play: TennesseeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee comes into action down in Athens 3-1 (1-3 ATS) on the season after defeating Akron 47-26 as a 46-point chalk. If you follow our tweets, we told you that Tennessee applied in the old LETDOWN THEORY concept, as the Zips took the money. Tennessee had already lost their initial SEC game to Florida, so we were confident they would be looking ahead to Georgia. The most impressive win this season for UT (-3) was over NC State 35-21 in Week #1. HC Derek Dooley (31-35) in his third year at Tennessee brings 19 starters. When the Vols were undressed by Florida a few weeks ago, major questions started to surface. First, don’t compare Florida to Tennessee, Muschamp (Florida) is a more effective recruiter and the Gators are deeper at the line of scrimmage, and have a few more play makers. Against Florida, Tennessee was out rushed 336 to 83 yards, 7.8 ypc vs. 3.0 ypc. The running attack for FU opened up the passing lanes for QB Driskel, i.e., Florida 37-20. But, we NOTE the game was tied 20-20 with 3:15 left in the third quarter.
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Key situational data can be found when looking at Georgia. The ‘Dawgs are the superior club, but have a road game at South Carolina next week which is a REVENGE spot. They have won 8 of 12 against Tennessee with a 41-14 home win in 2010. For Tennessee this is DOUBLE REVENGE, losing last year at home 20-12. UT has an open date next week. Sunday night the Las Vegas Brain Trust opened this at Georgia -15 1/2, but it was bet down quickly to -13 at the Wynn Casino and Sports Book. Interesting we had similar action in Georgia/Vanderbilt free selection last week. The ‘Dawgs have been solid lately as a home chalk in SEC games covering at a 5-1 clip, but show at just 4-4-1 ATS after Vanderbilt. UT has covered the last 3 of 4 in this series on the road. Also, UT banks 4-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back roadies. The Tennessee 4-7 ATS mark last year was the first time since 2005 they failed their backers in a given season. Critical: HC Dooley started 2012 executing many changes with 7 new assistants on his staff. Further, DC Sunseri had to rework the defense into a 3-4 unit from their original basic 4-3 set. And, of course, we all know WR Da’Rick Rodgers is gone. With the adjustments, the Vols need to step up and cash out. FINAL FORECAST: Georgia 34 Tennessee 24