Jeff Benton
6-1 free play run the past 7 days.
Saturday's freebie is the Northwestern Wildcats at home minus the points as they take on Indiana.
Indiana may be 3-1 against the spread the last four series meetings, but Northwestern took it to the Hoosiers 58-39 in Bloomington last season and the 'Cats do come in with a perfect 4-0 mark to the season both straight up and against the spread.
The Hoosiers are a money-burning 3-6 against the spread when installed as the road underdog their last nine in that situation. Even more concerning is the fact Indiana is coming off a bitter 41-39 home loss to the Ball State Cardinals.
I know Northwestern is just 6-12 as home favorite since Pat Fitzgerald's arrival, bit with back-to-back conference road games on deck, I will take my chances and take that 4-0 SU and ATS season mark out for one more spin before jumping ship.
Northwestern by 17-points.
2♦ NORTHWESTERN
Chris Jordan
My free MLB winner for Saturday is North of the border once again, where I find the American League East-leading Bronx Bombers taking on the Toronto Blue Jays inside the Rogers Centre.
We're on the run line, so we're going to end up with starting pitchers Andy Pettitte and Ricky Romero - an absolute mismatch.
Forget about aging, after missing more than two months due to a broken left fibula, Pettitte is 2-0 with 11 scoreless innings over two starts. And more importantly, he is 4-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five starts against the Blue Jays since losing to them July 6, 2009.
And on the heels of last night's 11-4 win, New York's magic number to reach the playoffs is now at two. The Yankees could clinch at least an American League Wild Card berth today with a victory over Toronto and a win by the Rangers over the Angels.
I know the Blue Jays hold a 4-3 edge against the Yankees at Rogers Centre this year, having outscored New York, 38-35. But the Yankees are going to terrorize Romero, who was 0-13 with a 7.42 ERA in his previous 15 starts before earning a win his last time he out. And he still needed run support, as he allowed four runs, four walks and eight hits in five innings at Baltimore last Monday.
I told you it didn't matter about the Yankees losing the first game of the series with Toronto, 6-0, and sure enough they responded with last night's win at Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays are trying to play spoilerl, but don't have the firepower to pull that off against the Bombers' lineup right now.
The Yankees have won 12 of their last 16, while the Jays have lost 13 of 18.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Alright, so let's take a look at my free college football winner for Saturday, cause I think this is an awful lot of points for Utah State to lay to UNLV.
What scares me about USU is:
Like Air Force (UNLV's opponent last week), it relies on the rushing game. The Aggies aren't a threat with the big play, more so the ground game. Rebels got a taste of that last week and might be tuned up.
Also, turnover margin. USU ranks 93rd in the nation. Aggies can't afford to give Rebels the same opportunities that have kept them in ball games.
Punting game is weak, averaging just 35.9 yards per punt. If they get buried deep in own territory, Rebs could be in good field position.
What scares me about UNLV is:
This is its first road game after opening the 2012 campaign with four straight at home in Sam Boyd Stadium.
Air Force exposed some weaknesses and how to attack with a decent rushing game; Rebs now rank 89th in the nation in stopping the run.
It's scoring defense is for crap, and constantly puts itself in position to playing keep-up. Not sure if it is complacent in doing so.
The Rebels are mired in a 3-14 ATS skid against teams with a winning record; not sure just yet how different this year's version is.
That all being said, I'm inclined to take the points simply because 'who in the hell is Utah State to lay this many points to anybody,' right?
I also wasn't that keen on it being a premium play and it's simply one of my two free plays today (the other is an MLB winner), because despite this being Utah State, there has to be a reason the oddsmakers have made this line this big.
Let's take a shot with the underdog Rebels and see what they've learned over the first four weeks.
2♦ UNLV
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Marshall vs Purdue
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Boilermakers come into this matchup rested and off of a big win 2 weeks ago where they put up 54 points. Marshall is off of a rare road win, in overtime no less, for their first victory ever in the state of Texas. Thundering Herd have lost outright 11 of their last 15 away from Huntington. Longer term, they are only a 35% spread proposition their past 70 games on the road. Purdue has clobbered 2 opponents so far at home, winning by an average score of 51-11.
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Illinois over Penn StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nittany Lions have revitalized their season with back-to-back wins but the competition takes a big jump entering Big Ten play this week. Illinois was blown out at home last week but Louisiana Tech must be respected as a very powerful offensive team. Illinois held the Bulldogs well below its season average in yardage but six Illini turnovers were impossible to overcome. Reilly O'Toole has looked like the more effective QB for Illinois and Illinois has been the superior defensive team through four weeks by a wide margin through very similar schedules even with the lopsided loss last week. Last season Illinois lost 7-10 at Penn State in game that featured great defense on both sides as Illinois allowed only 209 yards and value is with the home team coming off an ugly loss. Penn State has been a popular sharp play the last two weeks but Navy and Temple are both way down this season from recent years. Penn State played a very sloppy game in its only road game so far this season in the loss at Virginia and the Lions have failed to cover in five of the last six meetings in this series.
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Boise State vs. New Mexico
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The Boise State Broncos lost their share of assistant coaches after last season and the offense is surely showing the effects. The Lobos are now under HC Bob Davies guidance and he is defensive minded. Boise State won last week despite scoring just seven points and the New Mexico Lobos fall into a strong (37-19-1) system and they get the call.
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Duke -2.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We had Duke (-21) over Memphis last week in a 38-14 rout and one of the main reasons is the play of QB Sean Renfree, who became the fastest player in school history to reach 7,000 passing yards earlier this season and has this Blue Devil offense clicking on all cylinders. Duke should have plenty of scoring opportunities today against a Wake Forest defense that is so bad it allowed Army to put up 37 points last week and has allowed 88 points in its last two games. Duke is simply the better all-around team right now and we'll gladly take the points against the Demon Deacons, who have been horrific as a favorite under Head Coach Jim Grobe (19-31 ATS, 37%).
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Kansas City at ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Kansas City +110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Much like last year, the Cleveland Indians came flying out of the gate, and at the quarter-pole they looked like a viable contender with a record of 26-18. It has been a steep drop off, as the Indians have been a painful 40-73 since. Jeanmar Gomez has not been the answer, as he has been shuttled from the pen to the rotation, and neither has worked out. He enters here at 5-8 with an ERA of 5.54. His last five starts are the reason why he has been in and out of the rotation, as he has allowed 21 runs in 22.2 innings for an ERA of 8.34. The Tribe is just 7-23 in their last 30 vs. a losing team and the Royals have been a big part of that as they have taken seven of the last nine meetings vs. Cleveland. I like the live dog in this one, so play on Kansas City.
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Texas at Oklahoma State
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Oklahoma State can without difficulty put up 30. The Cowboys offense has been brilliant, especially with RB Joseph Randle and his 6.7/YPC. OSU is finding ways to score the ball, all the time, but could struggle to run the ball against Alex Okafor and Jordan Hicks leading the defense for Texas. Trouble is Oklahoma State’s D-line isn't all that great or especially physical. Texas will give them more than enough to handle from their O-line which will give Ash time to work. Texas has been relentless, with QB David Ash (7 TD/0 INT), and they have a mad running attack as well, and certainly looking forward to getting their 3 upcoming home games vs top tier opponents. Tense game, if Texas can get pressure on OSU it could spell problems, if not, OSU could be okay. In the end I go with Texas with a big win as they are looking like the Horns of several years ago.