Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 3, 2011

James Patrick Sports

Northwestern vs. Boston College
Play: Northwestern

Backing Pat Fitzgerald in this role has been prosperous as Northwestern has a (10-2) ATS run as either road underdogs or bowl underdogs on neutral fields the past three seasons, and note that it is not just a case of the Wildcats scrapping and hanging in – they won half of those games outright. With 19 fifth-year SR’s playing key roles, and that group off of three consecutive bowl appearances that also meant extra practice time each year, they should be as close to mid-season form out of the gate as just about any team in the nation. That means a prime chance to grab another outright win here.

Hollywood Sports

Ohio at New Mexico St.
Prediction: Ohio

DeWayne Walker has coached his New Mexico State to just five wins in his two years with the combined record of the four FBS teams that his club has defeated in his tenure is a mere 7-42. Frank Solich's Ohio Bobcats lost a combined 35 starts due to injury from projected starters last year. But with all five starters returning on the offensive line and a new no-huddle attack on offense, look for the Bobcats to be very motivated to get the stink out of their 48-21 loss to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl.

Steve Janus

Boise State vs. Georgia Boise State
Play: Boise State -3

The Broncos are 38-2 over the last three seasons with Kellen Moore at quarterback. They beat No. 17 Oregon in 2008, No. 16 Oregon to open 2009, and No. 10 Virginia Tech to open 2010. I think your money is safe on the Broncos against the Georgia Bulldogs.

The Broncos loss wide outs Titus Young and Austin Pettis, but that won't slow down Boise State offense that averaged 45.1 ppg in 2010. Georgia has to replace wide out A.J. Green, who was the No. 4 pick in the 2011 NFL draft. For those that followed Georgia in 2010, they were not even close to the same team when Green wasn't on the field. They do add in a talented freshman running back in Isaiah Crowell, but I don't think it will be enough to take out one of the best teams in the country.

Boise State is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 non-conference games, 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.

Jack Jones

Rice vs. Texas
Play: Texas -24

No team heads into the 2011 season more hungry than the Texas Longhorns. Texas finished in the bottom of the Big 12 South division for the first time since 1956 last year with a 5-7 record. Mack Brown had put together 20 consecutive winning seasons as a head coach between UNC and Texas before last year's debacle.

Brown brought in one of the best recruiting classes he has ever had to try and turn things around in a hurry. He welcomes back 12 starters and 49 lettermen in what will be a major bounce-back year for these returning players.

Malcolm Brown was the top RB recruit in the country, and the Longhorns nabbed him. Brown will take over at RB this season and is primed for a big year as the Longhorns have vowed to run the football more. QB Garrett Gilbert obviously struggled as a sophomore, but so did Colt McCoy when he was here. The talented Gilbert will be much better his junior season with a full year of experience under his belt.

The defense has five of their top six tacklers back from a unit that allowed a respectable 23.7 PPG and 300 total yards/game. What hurt Texas last year was a -12 turnover differential, and I fully expect this team to put more emphasis on taking care of the football. Teams with such bad TO differentials the previous year always tend to improve their record dramatically the following season.

Rice is coming off a 4-8 campaign in 2010 and things don't appear to be getting any better this season. The Owls went just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road last year while allowing 46.8 PPG and 479.6 total yards/game. Rice has lost 21 straight trips to Austin, losing by an average score of 42-13.

Texas has beaten Rice in 39 of their last 40 meetings, and they've topped 50 points in four of their last five head-to-head battles. The Longhorns have won 11 straight season openers by an average of 40 points/game. The Owls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Rice. Bet the Longhorns Saturday.

Joe Gavazzi

Northwestern -3

This line has been impacted by the linemakers anticipation of the notable improvement by the Wildcats on the basis of their experience. In fact, this is my #2 most experienced team in the nation. With 16 RS and 9 on the offensive side of the ball, this includes QB Persa operating behind one of the most veteran OLs in the nation. You recall that Persa was completing 73.5 of his passes before he was shelved by a late season Achilles injury. This offense will be far superior to that of BC who also has 9 RS. But the Eagles figure to be doing it with inexperienced QB Rettig, and without best RB Harris (knee). Thus, if BC is to succeed in this game they will need to rely on a defense, which is the specialty of third year HC Spaziani. This is an Eagle team who has a winning record each of the last 4 seasons with a defense that has allowed 20 or less points every year. Inverted home-road dichotomy also favors the Wild Cats who are 7-2 ATS RD vs. and Eagle team who is 1-6 ATS home LY.

Southern Miss. -12.5

A virgin QB in Hattiesburg is not the way LA Tech would prefer to open their season. When second year HC Dykes installed his Air Raid offense last year it resulted in a -15 net turnovers and a 5-7 SU ATS season. That may not improve tonight at this site with new QB Cameron. At first glance 7 RS on defense may appear a positive, but this is a Bull Dog stop unit that allowed 31 points and 462 yards last season. Expect S. Miss OB Davis and a solid wide receiver unit to take advantage on a field where they averaged 43 PPG LY. Fourth year HC Fedora has arguably his best team this season with an offensive attack that will average his trademark 200 yards both rushing and passing. Teams who gained 200 yards both running and passing against an opponent last year were 129-35 ATS 79%. Their unique new 4-2-5 defense will certainly cause trouble for a virgin QB. Please note LA Tech has a poor history in this role of 9-28 ATS RD including 0-6 ATS away in NC games.

Ultimate Sport Picks

San Jose State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -30

This will be Andrew Luck's first test since the surprising move not to become the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Unfortunatly, Coach Harbaugh and the talented coaching staff decided to take there coaching skills to San Fransico. This will be something big to watch this year, can Andrew Luck be enough to carry this team to win the new Pac 12 championship with out Harbaugh on the sideline. We will just have to see. The good news for Stanford is they do not need to worry about the coaching staff in this one. they have San Jose State this week and should have no problems handling them. San Jose State has given Stanford challenges over the years. They beat Stanford 35-34 five years ago and also took down John Elway in 1982 in his senior season. While that all may be true, this Stanford team should be able to pull things together despite having a new coaching staff and win by a comfortable amount. They will run right at San Jose State, and that will set up for some big plays off play action. Look for Luck to maybe have some early season rust, but he will end up having a huge day. final score should be around 52-20.

Tony Stoffo

Fresno State vs. California
Play: Fresno State +10

Free College Play for Saturday September 3rd Fresno State at California First off this game is being shown as a home game for the Golden Bears - However with their stadium not available this game will be played AT&T Park where the San Francisco Giants play. So California will not have their usual home field advantage. Plus this game can also turn into a home game for Fresno State as I've been watching the ticket sales and it all Fresno supporters buying up all the tickets right now. So in my opinion with these two teams being very familiar makes the points the way to go here. Especially with the Bulldogs also getting the coaching edge with Pat Hill. Golden Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. WAC.

Tom Stryker

South Florida vs. Notre Dame
Play: South Florida +11

Even though I’ll be one of the 80,000 plus fans in the stands screaming for the Irish on Saturday, my hard earned dough will be resting on head coach Skip Holtz and the South Florida Bulls.

Like his father, “Holtzie” has been at his best when no one gives him a shot. As an underdog of a field-goal or more, Skip has watched his teams post a rewarding 24-9 ATS record. Last year, USF closed hard as a pup too notching a solid 4-1 ATS mark in its last five tries.

Notre Dame is going to be a contender this season. The main reason for that rests on the defensive side of the ball. Still, with a couple of major revenge games on deck at Michigan and in the Bend against Michigan State, laying double-digits here is a tall order.

According to my college football database, the Irish are a weak 27-43-2 ATS priced as chalk of -10 or more including a stiff 5-18-2 ATS in their last 25 inside Notre Dame Stadium. As a favorite fighting in their first game of the season, the Dame has manufactured a dismal 8-13-1 ATS record.

At the end of last season, the Bulls took points at Cincinnati, Louisville and Miami Florida and won all three games straight up on the field. This will be an emotional return for Coach Holtz. Don’t be surprised when you see the Bulls take the Fighting Irish to the wire. Take South Florida!

Matt Fargo

UCLA Bruins vs. Houston Cougars
Play: Houston Cougars -2½

This is definitely a statement game for Houston after last year's disappointment where it went 5-7 and ended their bowl streak at five consecutive years. Win this and they could be 10-0 going into its huge game against SMU as the schedule sets up very well. The offense once again takes center stage with the return of quarterback Case Keenum who was granted a sixth year of eligibility. This is a revenge game for the Cougars who lost at UCLA last year and also lost Keenum in that game.

UCLA comes into the new season with more questions than answers once again. First and foremost is at quarterback where Kevin Prince will get the start against Houston but Richard Brehaut has been promised he'll play after a close competition this fall. Last season Prince went 42-for-94 for 384 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions in his five starts last year while Brehaut went 119-for-212 for 1,296 yards and six touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven starts and two other appearances.

Competition is good to get the best out of the two players but when they are average and not one of them was dominating, it shows that there are issues. Even worse is a change of the offensive scheme as the Bruins are going with a Pistol hybrid offense. To some degree a new offense can be good as it can leave the opposing defense helpless at what to plan for as little amount of weapons the Bruins have, it will not be that normal advantage here. UCLA finished 116th in the nation in passing offense a year ago.

Houston's defense was pretty atrocious last season but it was the first year in the new 3-4 setup so the second go-around usually improves matters. The matchup last year was not a good one as the Bruins ran all over Houston as they rushed for 266 in last year's meeting. The Cougars return six of the players from the front seven which will benefit in stopping the run. Only one starter in the secondary is back this year but again, it should not be a big issue as UCLA does not have the passing game to take advantage.

The Bruins were able to shut down Houston on offense last year but the Cougars top two quarterbacks went down so that was a given. Top target Patrick Edwards, a 1,000-yard receiver in 2009 and 2010 is back, as is Tyron Carrier, a 1,000-yard receiver in 2008 and 2009. Also back is 2009 Conference USA Freshman of the Year running back Charles Sims who had to sit out last season. As long as the offensive line can hold its own, Houston will be able to score at will and easily cover the short number. 3* Houston Cougars

Tony George

Troy vs. Clemson
Play: Troy +16

A lesson is FALL NUMBERS. Those are numbers a game is likely to fall on. This line opened at 14 and now sits off the fall number of 14 with an added 2 points. Troy is a pesky team not intimidated by a bigger school. The Trojans are 8-2 ATS in season openers the last 10 years against the likes of Ohio State, Arkansas, Florida State and a 3 point loss to Oklahoma State last year in Stillwater in a game they should have won. Troy returns their starting QB and RB from last year, and Robinson their QB is a solid passer and heady player. Clemson has a new offense as they have a new coordinator from Tulsa who runs a spread attack, and playing in the Sun Belt conference the Trojans are well adept at defending it. A whole new offensive scheme against a well coached team with an offense that will move the chains, this line is too high. Troy runs an unconventional defense as well and should have success while Clemson struggles out of the gate with a new attack. I will grab 2+ TDs here with a team that has proven their moxie against the big boys.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

HOUSTON -3 over UCLA: Case Keenum has to be licking his chops in this one as his last game last year was year was vs these same Bruins. Houston had really high hopes last year and then Case got injured and BAM a 5-7 year ensued. Well this year he is back and his offense is loaded. Now not only can this team pass, but they run as well and should have some great success vs a UCLA run defense that was 108th in the nation last year. Even scarier for the UCLA defense is the fact that last year Case was injured in the 3rd game, yet this offense still put up 37.7 ppg last year. I see the Cougs averaging around 45 this year. The OU line is at 61.5 and the line is at 3, so that tells me the books are expecting at least 29 from UCLA. Not gonna happen. This UCLA offense will not be good this year as neither Prince or Brehaut are the answer for this team> they will struggle to score a lot, even vs the Houston defense that had problems last year, but is very improved this year. We also note that the Cougars are 10-1 ATS in Keenum's last 11 starts at home. Bottom line here is that this is a classic revenge spot for both Case and the Cougs and they will easily cover the 3 points.

3 UNIT PLAYS

USC -23.5 over Minnesota: Last year the Trojans had all sorts of problems with the Gophers, as Minnesota actually led with 8 min to go in the 3rd quarter, before USC took over. USC did win, but 3 missed 2pt conversions cost them the cover. Last year Minnesota had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation (#102) and they did little to improve in that area, as they bring one of the worst secondaries in the Big 10 in to this game. Barkley has to be licking his chops after last years sub par performance vs the Gophers. The Minnesota offense was decent last year putting up 23 ppg, but they will be breaking in a new QB with only 2 OL back and vs probably the best defense in the Pac-12. Last year USC didn't pay well vs the Gophers, but th9is team is more talented and more focused than last year's edition and they will win this one by at least 4 TD's.

TEXAS -24.5 over Rice: The Longhorns are what you would call a mission team this year after last year's horrible 5-7 campaign. Texas has just 12 starters back, but this team is clearly better than last years group. With a year under his belt I expect Garrett Gilbert to have a much better year and cut down on the mistakes (10 TD's to 17 INT's). He will be facing a Rice offense that returns 8 starters, but this defense is far from respectability after allowing 38.5 ppg last year. The Rice Offense may not be that bad this year (in Conference USA), but they will be up against a Texas defense that just may be the best in the Big 12. Last year was a rough one, so Mack brown went out and hired 5 new coordinators and I feel that they will be out to prove something this year. The Longhorns want to get off to a good start this year and what better team to face than a team that you have beaten 11 straight times and by an average of 30 ppg. Texas rolls big time.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Oklahoma State/ Louisiana Over 64.5: The Over is 7-1 In Louisiana's last 8 games vs the big 12, while the Over is 4015 in the Cowboys last 55 home games. Louisian may be the worst team in the worst conference, but this team will put some points on the board and they are facing an OSU team that was not very good on defense last year and this year they bring back just 5 starters. The offense for this team was scary last year (44.2 ppg) and with 9 starters back, including Weedon and Blackmon, they may even be better this year and Louisiana doesn't have the defense to stop them. I see 70 points in this one.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Fresno State 10 over CALIFORNIA: Pat Hill usually gets his teams up for these games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs BCS schools and he is 10-1 as non-conference dogs of 5 or more. Cal returns just 12 starts and are not nearly as strong as teams in the past, plus they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Fresno keeps it close.

MISSISSIPPI +3 over BYU: Here's a good stat. The Rebels are 7-0 SU in season openers the year after missing out on a bowl. BYU is gonna be good this year, but the Rebels are a much improved team, that has just Southern Illinois on deck, while BYU has a date at Texas up next. Let us also note that it is forecast to be in the mid 90's by kickoff and BYU is not used to those temps. Ole Miss gets the upset.

Larry Ness

Fresno St +10

Cal is coming off a disappointing 5-7 season in 2010 (lost games 10-9 at Arizona, 15-13 to Oregon and 16-13 to Washington) and this year, while the school's on-campus stadium (Memorial Stadium ) is being renovated, the Bears will play their home games at either Candlestick Park or AT&T Park. Saturday's season opener will be at Candlestick and expect Fresno St to bring significant fan support. This will be Fresno State's "farewell season" in the WAC, as the Bulldogs move to the MWC in 2012. Pat Hill is in his 15th season at Fresno and it's hard to argue with his success, sporting a 108-71 mark, which includes 11 bowl trips in 14 years. He's always had the motto of playing "anyone, anywhere" and the Bulldogs own some notable upsets as well as more than a few 'scares' in Hill's career vs BCS schools. Both schools have new QBs, with Cal starting Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard and FSU going with sophomore Derek Carr, David's younger brother. Cal's 1,167-yard rusher Shane Vereen is gone while FSU's 1,129-yard runner Rouse is back for his junior season. I like FSU's history of pulling upsets against this quality of competition (just last season, FSU ended Cincy's 18-game regular season winning streak in its season-opener) and word has it that what's been called the "Red Wave," is buying more tickets than Cal fans. The Bears return just 12 starters, are going with a MAC transfer at QB (is he ready for the Pac-12?) and this can hardly be considered true home game at Candlestick. Take the points.

John Ryan

Tulsa at Oklahoma
Prediction: Tulsa

5* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Oklahoma set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, September 3. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. The public has bet Oklahoma consistently over the past several weeks. The line opened at 21 and has since moved to 25 and may end up at 26 by the start of the game. I highly recommend working to get 25 1/2 and not paying for the extra half point. I rarely make such recommendations given that the line does not determine the result of my plays. However, when I know the public is pushing hard on one side (Oklahoma) then it certainly pays to be patient to get 25 1/2. More than 75% of all bets being made at the various sports books I track are on Oklahoma and this sets up a powerful ?contrarian? wager. When I have the model simulator grading the DOG and the DOG is in completely out of public preference then I become even more confident that I am on the right side of this game with Tulsa. The Hurricanes are going to bring a load to this game and with 18 returning starters, including 10 on offense they are a team that will surprise many teams during the first half of this season. Last season Tulsa had 160 offensive plays that gained 10 or more yards and only six other teams in the nation had more. Their quarterback and Conference USA reigning Offensive Player of the Year G. J. Kinne returns to this offense and they will be even better this season. Their running game will be vastly improved with former walk-on Trey Watts starting at tail back. he is the son of legendary Oklahoma Sooner quarterback J.C. Watts and there might just be a little more motivation for the son to perform well against his father?s former team. Tulsa will be able to spread the Sooner defense and this will open up running lanes in the defensive interior. This is a highly suspect Sooner defense that worsened by 85 yards per game last season and I truly believe that the Tulsa offense is going to create difficult assignments for the Sooners to consistently defend. Over the years the majority of bowl teams will pad the early part of their schedule with easy opponents. Not the case with Tulsa as after playing Oklahoma, they will host Oklahoma State, and then travel to Boise State in the first four games. No matter the results, the fact that they are playing the nation?s elite programs early in the season is going to make them a formidable foe when they enter conference play. It is truly the old adage that a team only gets better by playing better opponents and tougher schedules. I point this out as I believe Tulsa will be an excellent money maker during conference play. Sooners are arguably the best team in the country, but do they have the running game necessary for opposing defenses to respect. Last season they ranked 103rd in the nation producing only nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards from scrimmage. That will have to improve significantly if the Sooners are to win the BCS Championship. I strongly believe that Tulsa does have the athleticism on the defensive lie to contain the Sooner running game. Last, being the preseason number one ranked team in the country can have a highly negative effect on college football teams. College football is largely made up of maturing and inexperienced teenagers that can easily become over confident when facing a team like Tulsa.

Jim Feist

Ohio vs N Mexico St
Play: Under

Ohio Coach Frank Solich likes to run the football and they will have to this season with QBs Tyler Tettleton and Phil Bates stepping in. Neither has much playing experience on an offense that averaged only 162-yards passing per game last season. The running game by committee is deep, anchored by Donte Harden, Ryan Boykin and Dallas Brown on a unit that averaged 27.5 points and 163.5 yds rushing. The offensive line will be the strength of the team as all five starters return led by 1st team All-Mac Joe Flading and A.J. Strum. New Mexico State is off a 2-10 season averaging just 15.7 ppg. The defense returns its best players. Don't look for a lot of offense (the Under is 11-5 in Bobcats last 16 games as a favorite). Play Ohio/New Mexico State Under the total.