Teddy Covers
Colorado @ Hawaii
PICK: Under 55.5
Hawaii scored 13 points when they faced Colorado last year, and it wasn’t because of turnovers – the Warriors offense simply couldn’t move the ball effectively against a second tier Big 12 defense. Expect points to be hard to come by for the Hawaii offense in this matchup once again this year. Warriors QB Bryant Moniz is one of only two starters returning on offense! The lone returning offensive line starter, left tackle Austin Hansen, was ruled ineligible to start the season, meaning that Hawaii is breaking in FIVE new starters on the line. Three of their top four receivers from last year are in NFL camps now and their top incoming receiver, Darius Bright, was just arrested on assault charges, suspended for the opener. Colorado’s defensive strength is on their line; the most experienced unit on the team. That’s very bad news for Moniz here. This is not a game where Hawaii’s offense is likely to ‘click’
First year Buffaloes head coach Jon Embree spent summer camp looking to develop playmakers on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately for Embree, he couldn’t find any – former head coach Dan Hawkins left the cupboard rather bare in terms of skill position talent. After Colorado’s last scrimmage, Embree told the Denver Post “The offense was not good enough. We’re going to have changes on the depth chart” The Buffs were held to 17 points or less in four of their five road games last year, and they lost their best offensive lineman (by a wide margin), first team All American Nate Solder, the Patriots first round draft choice last Spring. Last year’s game finished with 44 points and I expect this meeting to be in a similar range. Take the Under.
Don Wallace Sports
UCLA vs Houston
Play: Houston -3
A year after the UCLA Bruins shocked the 23rd ranked Houston Cougars at the Rose Bowl 31-13, they meet again in Robertson Stadium to kick off their season opener. Last year the Bruins knocked out senior starting quarterback Case Keenum and at one point led 31-3 before Houston even knew what hit them. Because Keenum was hurt in the third game of the season he was granted a medical redshirt for the 2011 season. Keenum will be set on improving a 10-for-18 83-yard two-interception performance. Houston Cougars head coach Kevin Sumlin returns to the school for his fourth season. Sumlin owns a career mark of 23-16 as a head coach. The team will have six starters back on offense in 2011 from a unit that averaged 483 yards a game ranking 11th in college football. Houston averaged 37.7 points per game good for 16th best in the nation. In 2009 Case Keenum hit on 70% of his passes for 5671 yards with 44 touchdowns and 15 picks, and there was talk of a possible Heisman candidacy for Keenum in 2010 before suffering a season ending ACL tear at the hands of the Bruins.This is clearly a revenge spot for the Cougars as UCLA basically ruin there season in 2010. Moreover, these two schools have a nasty history dating back to 1998 in a game which Kim Helton than UH head coach felt Bob Toledo ran the score up on him 66-10. Neuheisel is only 1-5 vs. line away last year and 6-10 ATS in role since arriving at UCLA in 2008. Neuheisel also 7-16 last 23 as dog. I really like Houston in this spot and look for them to have a special year. HOUSTON BY 10
Jack Clayton
Florida Atlantic at Florida
Pick: Florida
Florida Atlantic is off a 4-8 season, losing to Michigan State (30-17) and Texas (51-17) in step-up games. Coach Howard Schnellenberg’s squad averaged 208 yards passing, but only 16.8 points behind QB Jeff Van Camp (17 TDs, 13 INTs), who sacked (34 times) and under pressure too often. He’s gone, so junior QBs David Kooi and Graham Wilbert (0 TDs, 1 INT, 41 yards) battling each other. The Owls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Florida Gators have a new coach in Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, who adds a pro-style attack. That is better suited to junior QB John Brantley. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Sun Belt and 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. Have to look for the new coaching staff to put on a show for the fans in the Swamp. Play Florida!
Marc Lawrence
Oregon at LSU
Play: LSU
Sometimes we’d like to line up every bone-headed player in the SEC and smack ‘em. Hard. In this case, we’d be taking a swing at LSU QB Jordan Jefferson and three teammates who are part of an ongoing investigation surrounding a fight outside a bar that sent four non-players to the hospital. As a result Jefferson and pals stand have been ambushed before the Tigers and Ducks tee it up in the biggest game of the day. Yes, those off-field antics by a handful of key players have the spotlight glaring on LSU – but we think that’s right where they like it. Not only are the Bayou Bengals a stout 14-1 SU in their last 15 season openers (6-0 under Les Miles, scoring 30 or more points in every game). In addition LSU is 44-4 straight-up at home in night games under Miles. Meanwhile, our database informs us that the Ducks are a woeful 28-66 SU and 23-69 ATS in lined games where they allow 30+ points. Oregon had its 3-0 SU and ATS win skein versus the SEC snapped in the loss to Auburn in January’s BCS title game. And now that the Oregon football program is in a panic mode with the NCAA gods doing a colonoscopy into OU’s recruiting tactics, we don’t want any part of Duck defense that allowed more than 500 yards on four occasions last year. Not against this physical bunch. The clincher: teams that won nine or more games last year have beat the spread 75% of the time in season-opening games against foes that lost one game-exact the previous season over the last 22 years. Stay at home under the lights with the Tigers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on LSU.
Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
Milwaukee has not been real sharp at the plate as they try to put the finishing touches on an NL Central pennant. The Brewers went into Friday licking their wounds after getting swept in a 3-game home set by the Cardinals. Milwaukee scored a total of just 8 runs in those three games, struggling with runners in scoring position. They certainly started slowly last night against the Astros, finally getting on the board in the 7th inning. On Saturday, the Brewer bats will have to face Bud Norris. The Houston hurler has helped his team to an 8-2 run as a home underdog when he toes the rubber. Norris owns strong career numbers against the Brewers, but his only bad start in his last eight outings came against Milwaukee on August 7. But Norris owns a 3.63 ERA in 15 home starts this season and I expect he'll gain a measure of personal revenge in this one. Houston began this series on a 7-1 run at home. And they're on a 22-10 run at home against lefthanders. The Astros scored 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings the last time they faced southpaw Chris Narveson and I suspect they'll get to him again today. I'm playing the underdog Astros on Saturday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -151
Cincy's Homer Bailey can't be trusted on the road, and he can't be trusted against the Cardinals. The Reds are 2-5 in his last 7 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts when valued as an underdog. He's is just 2-4 (2-6 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.18 in 8 career starts against St. Louis. St. Louis is in better hands with Jaime Garcia, who's 6-4 (8-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.72 in 12 home starts this year. He's been deadly against the Reds, going 5-1 lifetime with a 2.89 ERA in 6 career starts. The Cardinals are 17-8 in their last 25 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-2 in Garcia's last 8 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Reds are only 20-45 in their last 65 meetings in St. Louis. We'll take the Cards.
Charlie Scott
Western Michigan vs. Michigan
Play: Under 61.5
1 of those high Totals where the UNDER just feels right. In order for this game to go Over everything must break right for both teams. I'd rather bet Not everything will go right in gm #1 of the Season for both teams. Michigan has a new Coaching staff & new schemes for the Players to learn. I don't forsee Michigan Head Coach running up the score vs little in state brother with a game with Notre Dame next week.
Rob Vinciletti
Ohio vs. New Mexico State
Play: Ohio -6.5
Ohio U fits a nice 765 Opening week angle and looks to be superior to a New Mexico State team that was blown out several times last season and appears to just as mediocre this season. The Aggies are just 2-12 straight up at home when the total is 49.5 to 56 and has lost 27 of 35 times as a dog since becoming a regular board team. Ohio U has won 5 of the last 6 as a favorite and has covered 17 of 21 times when playing teams with a win percentage of less than .245 under head coach Solich, and New Mexico State clearly will be a losing team. Ohio brings back their whole offensive line and should get the win and cover here vs the Aggies who are 3-11 ats as a home dog. Ohio U is 17-3 ats in road games they win. Look for Ohio U to get the win and cover.
BIG AL
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
It's unclear if the Braves have all the pieces in place just yet to go to the World Series this year but with the emergence of righthander Brandon Beachy and lefthander Mike Minor - who will make his 11th start of the season tonight at home against the Dodgers, the prospects of a rotation next season consisting of Tim Hudson, (a healthy) Tommy Hanson, Beachy, and Minor, must have people in Atlanta thinking that 2012 could be this team's year to break through. Minor came back this season after being demoted and was very effective in four August starts, going 3-0 while the Braves went undefeated when he took the mound. The team is being cautious with Minor, who pitches tonight for the first time in 10 days and it's being reported that he's worked on his change-up and that work seems to have paid off for the young southpaw. Righthander Nathan Eovaldi will get his sixth start of his rookie season tonight and this is reportedly going to be his last start at least for this year as the Dodgers plan to put Eovaldi in the bullpen after tonight in order to keep his innings in check. After winning his debut on August 6, Eovaldi has not been able to duplicate that and has gone 0-2 in four starts since and has been somewhat erratic in the process. Heading into this game, the Dodgers are 4-8 in the last 12 meetings at Turner Field. Take the Braves.
Black Widow
1* on East Carolina +21
No team wants to face East Carolina and their high-octane offense. They will certainly give Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Gamecocks a few headaches on Saturday. ECU made it to a bowl game last season while pulling off four upsets along the way. They beat two of the top teams in C-USA with a 51-49 victory over Tulsa and a 44-43 win at Southern Miss. They also knocked off NC State and UAB as underdogs. ECU put up 36.8 points and 438 total yards/game in 2010, and they have six starters back on offense including QB Dominique Davis (3,967 passing yards, 46 total touchdowns, 16 INT). He is one of the top QB's in the country and will give numerous teams fits all season, including South Carolina. Spurrier has just recently named Connor Shaw his starting QB, and we expect him to be shaky in his first collegiate start as a sophomore. He is taking the place of senior Stephen Garcia, who is the more talented of the two but has had too many off-field issues to earn Spurrier's trust. The Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. The Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. With the way the Pirates can put up points, they'll easily stay within three touchdowns Saturday. Take ECU and the points.
Freddy Wills
South Florida vs. Notre Dame
Play: South Florida +11
That's right no bull here South Florida has a chance to win this game despite the way Notre Dame played down the stretch. The story is all about Holtz returning to Notre Dame and this team should be super motivated to pull off an upset on a national stage. I was very impressed with South Florida on the road down the stretch as they won their last 3 road games at Miami, Louisville and Cincinnatti as well as a win in their bowl game on the road vs. a talented Clemson team. B.J. Daniels returns for the Bulls and he's 100% healthy and I think we see another year of improvements as he has a backfield that has a little more depth with the transfer of Darrell Scott from Colorado. Notre Dame's run defense really struggled last year and I expect South Florida to really attack them and slow the pace of this game down to the point where 11 points is just too much vs. a South Florida defense that is pretty good and extremely fast.
In fact the Bulls were 23rd on 3rd down conversion defense and what that tells me is that Notre Dame will have issues with the speed on South Florida which could lead to field goals instead of touchdowns. Dayne Crist is the starter, but it's known that he is not the ideal candidate for Kelly's system but nonetheless he should put up some nice numbers with one of the nation's best receivers in Michael Floyd. However, South Florida returns a veteran secondary which should work against the strength of the Irish. They have held opponents under 200 yards passing in 5 of the last 6 seasons and have a real strength in the secondary that should keep the big plays to a minimum. Quickly Notre Dame will realize the way to win this game is through the ground game. Cierre Wood is a junior and looks to improve after the Irish only averaged 3 yards per carry they are much bigger than South Florida up front and should wear them down. Again this will slow the game down and I expect Daniels and the Bulls to hang around by a TD all game long with a chance to win it in the end.
Lastly, this is a long time coming for South Florida the last two years they have taken down in state rivals Florida State and Miami which is a huge deal for a program that has only been around since the 90's. Going up against the Irish should make it an emotional day for their head coach and I'm sure he's done his home work. Irish are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games and the Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 as dogs 10.5+, because they play solid and consistent defense.
Vegas Experts
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
The Giants picked up a much needed win in Friday's series opener and are poised to make it two in a row tonight behind Tim Lincecum. San Francisco has dominated its division rival the last three seasons, taking 35 of 49 meetings, including 19 of 25 here at home. Lincecum deserves better than his record as he has a 2.57 ERA in 28 starts, but has received no run support (literally) in two of his last three starts.
Play on: San Francisco
Michael Alexander
Minnesota vs. USC
Play: USC -23.5
MINNESOTA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-12
USC is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
MINNESOTA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games
Dennis Macklin
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½
Hamels came off the DL to throw six shut out innings against the Reds. He's always handled the Fish with ease. Nolasco has a LT 2.69 ERA in 11 LT starts vs the Phillies and he's faced them twice this year allowing just two earned in 13 and 2/3 innings pitched. Runs will be at a premium here. Play the Under.
Rocketman
South Florida @ Notre Dame
Play On: South Florida +11
South Florida is 5-1 ATS last 3 years on the road when the total is between 45 1/2 and 49 points. Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. South Florida is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a road underdog. Notre Dame is 7-18 ATS as a favorite of 10 1/2 or more. Notre Dame is 1-6 ATS last 7 games in September meaning they normally get off to a slow start. We'll definitely take the generous points in this one. We'll recommend a small play on South Florida today!