Telly
One early play, check back later for more.
Midd Tenn St. +16
Dave Price
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -135
The Brewers are definitely showing value at this price considering they have won 10 of 13 against Houston this season, including 7 in a row. Plus, they just lit up Houston scheduled starter Bud Norris for 6 earned in a 7-3 victory on Aug. 7. The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. We'll bet the Brew Crew.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -106
The Sox have the edge on the mound with Floyd. They've won each of his last 4 starts and 7 of his last 8. The Tigers, meanwhile, have lost 5 of Penny's last 7 starts and 4 of his last 5 home outings. Also, Floyd's dominance over Detroit can't be ignored. He's 6-1 (11-4 on the money line) with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts against the Tigers. We'll take the South Siders behind another quality performance from Mr. Floyd.
Ben Burns
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
The Rockies won yesterday's opener. However, the Padres should have a solid shot at evening things up tonight. Luebke has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts. During that stretch, he has a 2.60 ERA and 1.039 WHIP. For the season, in 12 starts, he's got a 2.89 ERA and 0.991 WHIP. In 71 2/3 innings as a starter, Luebke has 74 K's and only 17 walks. The Padres are a profitable 7-5 (+2.1) in those games.
On the other hand, White has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts. Last time out, he issued a whopping six walks, striking out only three.
With the Padres @ 14-8 (+3.2) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range and desperate to snap their losing streak, consider laying the wood.
Doug Upstone
Michigan
Michigan last year was dreadful on defense, but that might work to their advantage on Saturday against Western Michigan. Play On home teams who allowed 400 or more total yards a game last season, with 16 total starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. (27-6 ATS, 81.2% since 1992)
THE WINNING ADDICT
Indiana Hoosiers -6
Indiana is the worst team in the Big 10, even worse than Minnesota. Well, Purdue isn’t very good (yes, Purdue lost at home to Indiana last year ending the Hoosiers’ road conference losing streak and giving them their first road win since 2007 in Big 10 play). Tonight Indiana’s players get to live a dream they never else would get to do—play on the same field that the Colts do. Let’s admit they aren’t going to play in the NFL, so beating up on MAC cellar dweller Ball State will have to do. Indiana was 5-7 last year, and they were a couple of plays away from an 8 win season—something that would’ve assured Bill Lynch a contract extension. They lost star QB Ben Chappell, but they return 7 starters on offense including NFL prospect Demarlo Belcher, who caught 78 balls last season. They have a new coach in Kevin Wilson, a guy who is a very creative offensive mind and spent 9 years on the staff at Oklahoma, and he has what it takes to make Indiana relevant. Ball State on the other hand is downright awful. They were 4-8 and 3-5 in the MAC West last year, and they return only 11 starters from last year’s club that lost to Liberty at home in Muncie. They also lost to Eastern Michigan, and if you know anything about college football—you know that is bad news. They were 106th in total offense last year with 305.8 yards per game, and they averaged only 22 points per game. They gave up 30.4 points per game, good for 88th nationally. New coach Pete Lembo inherits a program that has only won 6 games in the past two seasons, and they’ve only had 2 winning seasons in the past 14. They aren’t poised for much of a turnaround any time soon. They have a 3rd team all-MAC running back that will lead their trio of running backs, but they won’t be able to slow down Indiana, and this spread just won’t be enough at the end of the day for the Cardinals. Indiana to win 10 units.
Northwestern Wildcats +3.5
Dan Persa is questionable, but the kid is tough and I fully expect him to play—because this team needs him. However, since I believe he is going to be in the lineup, I absolutely believe the wrong team is favored here. Boston College averaged 18.5 points per game last year, good for 12th in the ACC and 109th nationally. They only averaged 299.1 yards of offense per game, 109th nationally, and they were 90th in rushing yards and 97th in passing yards. It should say something about their defense tht this team was able to win 7 games and get to a bowl, but Northwestern has too much fire power to be slowed down today, and the NU defense will be able to keep this anemic BC offense in check. Boston College generally is way overvalued when playing at home early in the season, and this is a perfect example. Northwestern has historically been a great September team, and their nonconference slate is usually packed with winnable games in which they simply find ways to grind out wins. This will not be a super high-scoring game, but the Wildcats have 9 starters back on offense and 7 back on defense, so this team is seasoned and smart. They execute very well, which is why this team was 7-3 last year before Dan Persa went down with a season-ending injury. Their defense actually suffered tremendously once Persa left the field, because their drives were shorter which led to more field time for the defense—something a thin NU bunch could not handle. This team brings back 4 starters on the offensive line, and they are primed for a huge year—but it has to start with a win at Boston College today, because we all know their new Big 10 schedule is not doing them any favors. The biggest factor for me in this game is Montel Harris—BC’s only legit offensive threat, and he is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury. This team will have a tough time generating offense, and the Chesnut Hill will be disappointed again in this team that is a year away from seriously competing for the ACC Atlantic Crown. Take Northwestern +3.5 to win 7 units, as this is tremendous value for a team I expect to win outright.
Real Animal
LSU +3.5
LSU is a perfect 12-0 SU all-time versus Pac-10/12 opponents. Did you see anything in last year's NCAA championship that should suggest a Pac-10 team be favored over an SEC team? LSU has won 14 of their last 15 season openers and in all six under Coach Miles they have tallied 30 points or more. Oregon is 23-69 ATS when they allowed 30-plus points winning outright just 28 of those. Oregon's no-huddle high-potent offense won't impress LSU, which allowed 18 points per game under coordinator John Chavis last year. Still can't find too much success in "big games" for Ducks coach Chip Kelley considering he's 0-2 in bowls at Oregon and lost to Boise State in '09 opener. Key statistic: Against physically-superior teams like Boise State, Ohio State, and Auburn the past two seasons, Oregon has been out-rushed 684-187. I don't see a significant drop-off in production with fifth-year senior Jarrett Lee replacing Jordan Jefferson (7-10 ratio touchdowns to picks) especially considering Lee is a native of Texas and now returning to Arlington. Oregon's offense not nearly as productive with time off. The Ducks have averaged 18 points per game in their last two bowl appearances and tallied just eight points in their opener at Boise State two years ago. I vividly remember LSU with time to prepare a few years ago against an explosive rushing-offense in Georgia Tech with Coach Paul Johnson. The Tigers came to Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and held the Jackets to 164 yards rushing in a 38-3 LSU slaughter. That year Tech almost weekly went for 300-plus rushing yards. Look for more of the same tonight. Free play is 2* LSU +3 1/2.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
NY YANKS -135 over Toronto: The Yanks really need to start getting serious. This isn't like in years past were they have had a big league in the division and they could just relax down the stretch. Right now they have just a half game lead in the East and with Boston playing Texas this weekend they have a shot to stretch that a bit... If they keep winning. Bartolo Colon has not been sharp of late as he comes in with an 0-3 mark and a 5.68 ERA, and at home this year he is 4-4 with a 4.10 ERA, but the Yanks have won 3 of his last 4 home starts and he allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of those starts. Ricky Romero has been hot of late with a 2-0 mark and a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has a 2.75 ERA on the road, but just a 6-6 record. Ricky has pitched well vs the Yanks this year, while Bartolo has not had a good year vs the Jays. I see both trends reversing as Bartolo and keep the pressure on the BoSox in the chase for the AL East Title. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The yanks are 27-2 since 2007 at home when they are off a win as a favorite of more than 130 in which they scored in at most 2 separate innings and it's not game 1 of a series.
3 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Cincinnati Over 8.5: The Over is 14-0 since 2007 when they Cards played the day before in a game that was tied on exactly 3 separate occasions. Homer Bailey comes in with a 4.35 ERA overall and a 4.22 ERA on the road, plus a 4.89 ERA in days games. The Over is 12-5 in his starts this year, with 10.88 rpg being scored, while in his day starts the Over is 6-3 with an average of 10.44 rpg being scored. Homer has 8 starts vs the Cards an has a 5.18 ERA, with those games averaging 9.13 rpg. Jamie Garcia comes into this one struggling with an 8.27 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 home starts. He also has a 4.89 ERA in his days starts with the over going 7-3 and an average of 10.18 rpg being scored. This game has 2 of the top 6 scoring offenses in the league and in their last 10 games the Reds have averaged 4 rpg, while ST Louis has averaged 5.2 rpg over that stretch. Two very good offenses vs some struggling pitching will make for some high scoring afternoon baseball in St Louis today.
2 UNIT PLAY
Oakland/ Seattle Over 7: Gonna go back to the well 1 more time as Vegas has hung another low OU total in an Oakland home game. It's just confusing. Oakland home games have averaged 7.98 rpg, while Seattle road games have averaged 7.93 rpg. Both over today's total. Michael Pineda has a 4.39 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 8.86 rpg, while McCarthy has a 3.34 ERA at home and his home starts have averaged 8.40 rpg. Still tells me Over 7. Pineda does have a 2.77 ERA in day games, but 7.62 rpg have been scored in those games, while Brandon has a 3.09 ERA in his day starts, but 8.20 rpg have been scored. Again both numbers say over 7. Seattle's offense has put up- 4.4 rpg in their last 10 and Oakland' has put up 5.5 rpg in their last 10. So what stat says this will go under 7. NONE. Ill take the Over here.
Nothing But Winners
5 Unit GAME OF THE MONTH- Oregon (-3) Vs. LSU
First off I am not one of the cappers that comes out with five “Game of the Month” picks, this will be my only game of the month. My subscribers know im true to this. Before all of the suspensions I still thought Oregon was the better team, and with Jefferson not playing in this game it was an easy decision. People seem to forget how great this Oregon team was last year. They ran through their entire schedule last season, and their only loss was obviously in the Championship game. LaMichael James is one of the best players in the entire country, and will have a field day with an LSU defense who has lost a lot of talent since last season. LSU has all the distractions in the world right now, and im not sure if Jarrett Lee will be able to handle it. LSU was a great home team last year, but did lose a couple games away from home last year including a late season loss to Arkansas. Look for both teams to score some points, but I don’t see LSU getting many stops. 5 Unit Play- Oregon (-3)
3 Unit Dog of the Day- Northwestern @ Boston College (-3.5)
This game immediately jumped out at me when I started researching this weeks card. Northwestern ended the season pretty badly after Dan Persa got hurt, but with Persa this is a very good team. Dan Persa is one of the most underated quarterbacks in the entire county, and when healthy this team can move the ball with ease. His last game before the injury he was able to take down a very good Iowa team. Even if Persa does end up missing this game, I think Northwestern will be too much for BC and take it to them. Boston College is without its best player today, Running Back Montel Harris. They are also very thin in the secondary, and Northwestern should be able to pick them apart. I think Northwestern takes this game on the road. 3 Unit Play- Northwestern (+3.5)
2 Unit Road Warrior- South Florida @ Notre Dame (-10.5)
I still have no idea what all this preseason hype regarding Notre Dame is all about. This is the same team who has struggled with everyone they have played. All I need to see in this one is that Notre Dame lost at home to Tulsa, and also lost to Navy. South Florida is returning a lot of starters including quarterback BJ Daniels. I think this is the season that Daniels finally puts all of this skills together, and has a very strong season. Last season South Florida took down Miami and Clemson on the road. Im not sure if they will win this game, but it will be a very close one. 3 Unit Play- South Florida (+10.5)
3 Unit Blow out of the Day- UCLA @ Houston (-2.5)
This Houston team will shock a lot of people this year, and will be much better than last year. Both of these teams ended the season very poorly last year, but Houston has the best weapon on the field in Case Keenum. He missed most of last year with an injury, which is the main reason why Houston had such a bad season. UCLA lost 6 of their last 7 games, and they have showed no signs of improvement under Rick Neuheisel. I think Keenum will move his team up and down the field all game, and put up a lot of points. Even with a shaky defense Houston should be able to contain UCLA’s weak offensive attack. 3 Unit Play- Houston (-2.5)
2 Unit Linemaker's Mistake- BYU (-2) @ Ole Miss
I know that BYU is not in the SEC, but they are a much better team then Ole Miss. Mississippi had a very bad season last year dropping 6 of their last 7 games. I know they are in a tough conference, but they looked miserable last year. BYU finished their season strong winning 5 of their 6 games. Quarterback Jake Heaps struggled at the start of the season last year, but finished very strong. BYU is also returning a staggering 19 starters, and should be in line for a great season. BYU should be able to move the ball fairly easily against the 107th ranked defense last year. 2 Unit Play- BYU (-2)
Harry Bondi
Hawaii -6.5 over Colorado
Colorado is getting a fresh start with an entirely new coaching staff, as well as new starters in a number of key positions so the schedule-makers didn't do them any favors by sending them to Hawaii for the opener. Not only is this one of the most difficult road trips to make in college football because of the long flight, distractions in paradise and the time change, but the Rainbows are a tough team to prepare for as well. Look for Hawaii's sleeper Heisman candidate QB Bryant Moniz and his team’s wide-open attack to put up some big numbers against a Colorado secondary that lost two players to the NFL and is as green as grass. Here's a little-known fact: Colorado hasn't won a road game since 2007 and its not about to break that streak here, especially since Hawaii is looking to avenge a disappointing loss at Colorado last year. The Rainbows flourish at home and send the Buffs packing with their 18th straight loss on the highway.
Ray Monohan
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
Tonight at 7:05 PM ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston we'll get Astros RH Bud Norris (6-8, 3.68 ERA) vs. Brewers LH Chris Narveson (9-6, 4.28). If the Brewers can win 19 of their last 24 game then Milwaukee would 100 wins on the season. The Brewers are languishing in a three-game losing streak right now, but this series with the Astros could kick-start the winning streak that helps capture the NL Central pennant for the Brewers and give the team its first 100-win season ever. Chris Narveson comes off the DL to take the mound in this game and try to give Milwaukee some street cred by winning on the road. Bud Norris is one of those young MLB pitchers that has a lot of velocity but still needs to learn control. He is 6-8 on the season with a 3.68 ERA. In his last 10 starts he is 2-2. The Brewers are on the road and the Astros have a heat-throwing kid on the mound trying to make a name for himself. HOU are 7-2 in their last 9 home games. This will be a good night in Houston. I like the dog.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +141 over ST. LOUIS
After an unlikely sweep in Milwaukee to narrow the gap to nine games, the Cardinals went on to lose to the Reds last night and that surely could’ve halted any steam they built up, especially with the Brewers winning. The “Genius” and the Cards had a point to prove in Milwaukee and they did. All LaRussa cares about is not being “shown up” and that three-game sweep is as satisfying to him as winning the division. Jamie Garcia has pretty much shut it down for the year and is now running strictly on fumes. The Reds have been dominant against LHPs (.814 OPS vLHPs - 2nd in MLB) all season long and should have their way with Garcia. Garcia's skills show in-game erosion, as he’s been completely shredded over the past month in the second and third times through the order. Over his past five starts, covering just 21 frames, Garcia has walked 11 and struck out 12 and has posted an ERA of 7.17 and a 1.92 WHIP. These are all strong signs of a guy in trouble. Meanwhile, Homer Bailey is the complete opposite, as he missed all of April and June and has only been healthy since early July. That’s two months of consistent starting so for Bailey, pitching now is like pitching in mid-June. He’s allowed three runs or less in five of his past six starts including his last in which he went eight full against the Phillies and allowed just six hits. Bailey is simply much fresher than Garcia and the Cardinals are a great fade as a big favorite. Play: Cincinnati +141 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Northwestern +3½ +155 over Boston College
12:00 PM EST. Boston College is the second best team here, period. The only edge they have is that they’re playing at Alumni Stadium but the Wildcats are always prepared to play anywhere and they have a pretty good history of winning their opener. Northwestern is loaded and primed to make some noise this year. The Wildcats have an amazing 19 fifth-year seniors on the team and they also have an outstanding QB in Dan Persa. All Persa did was complete over 73% of his passes while only throwing four picks all season. The defense of the Wildcats did get somewhat gashed last year but expect this season to be much better and it’s not like they’re playing some offensive juggernaut either. Boston College’s offense is a joke. They averaged 18 points a year ago and this year they won’t be better. They really don’t even have a starting QB yet because coach Spaziani can’t find one or can’t decide who is worse. So, for the Eagles to compete, it’s going to have to be the defense that holds up the fort. The problem with that is not many are returning from last year’s stellar group. B.C.’s biggest weakness on defense is its secondary, which allowed over 63% completions last year. They’ve already had one guy in the secondary quit and one other guy transfer. Again, the Wildcats strength is the passing game. Offensively is where they have a huge, huge edge in this game. Play: #147 Northwestern +3½ (Risking 1.06 units to win 1) Play: Northwestern +155 (Risking 1 unit).
Western Michigan +14½ over MICHIGAN
3:30 PM EST. Michigan used to be a power and they’ll very likely return to one someday soon but that day isn’t coming this year. The Wolverines are retooling. They have a new coach, a good one but still new and for the fifth season in a row, the defense is under a different system. There is just no continuity in Ann Arbor these days. Then there’s Michigan QB Denard Robinson. Robinson is a work in progress and a big work he is. He makes a ton of bad decisions and he’s not a good passer either. The kid can run but so what. He’s a bad decision maker that can’t throw and no way are we laying 14½-points with those credentials. In fact, just about everything for the Wolverines is new. They’re going to need some games to get familiar with Hoke’s system and they may even get upset here. Western Michigan will come in jacked up and raring to go, knowing that the Wolverines are going through a transition period and could be ripe to get beat. Besides, the Broncos are a pretty decent MAC team and MAC teams are always dangerous. QB Alex Cader threw for over 3300 yards and 30 touchdowns a season ago and he returns along with nine out of 10 receiving corps. Both defenses are a little suspect and that’s ok because if the Broncos fall behind they Wolverines defense is not strong enough to keep this dangerous offense at bay. The Big House can be an intimidating place, however, it can also be a motivating place for the visitor because they’ll be playing in front of 100,000 fans, not to mention on National TV. So, expect the Broncos to hold nothing back and play their hearts out for a full 60 minutes. Expect the same for the Wolverines but the difference is absolutely the two-touchdown head start in our favor. Play: #159 Western Michigan +14½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
SMU +16 over Texas A&M
Sunday – 7:30 PM EST. June Jones inherited a WAC team that was 0-12 the previous season and took it to the Sugar Bowl in nine years. Pretty sporty. Think he can't do the same at a former Southwest Conference power that's sitting in the middle of one of the nation's most fertile recruiting areas? This season, Jones' fourth is the crest of his regime's first wave. SMU won the Conference USA West Division last year and this season returns 18 starters, including a quarterback in his third year as a starter, a 1,500-yard rusher and an all-senior offensive line with 158 career starts. The 18 also includes all-conference-caliber production and established leadership in every defensive position group. This SMU outfit has been four years in the making, and this season the Mustangs are the best team in Conference USA. The Ponies hung with another former SWC rival, Texas Tech, last season, and will be in the game again this year with a good shot at beating an A&M bunch that's been reading an awful lot about itself in the papers this August. The Aggies will probably win it, but it'll be scary close. Play: #209 SMU +16 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Matt Rivers
Boise State -3.5
Reasoning: There are certainly factors going against the Broncos here but I just can’t fully pass up what has been the much team of late and what potentially could once again be the much better team. The SEC is great and normally wins out of conference games such as this one but Boise State has been a top 5-10 program of late unlike Georgia which has been regressing a ton recently.
The Dawgs pretty much have the home field advantage today in the Georgia Dome and are up against a team that lost its wide receivers in Austin Pettis and Titus Young and just yesterday had three players ruled ineligible including a receiver who was supposed to be in the midst of a breakout season. By the way all three of those players who did not travel were from the football hotbed of the Netherlands, pretty funny, huh. The Bulldogs are also the dreaded road chalk today all the way across the country and up against an SEC squad, which is never the greatest deal. UGA also clearly boasts the much better kicking game, which may very well be the best in the entire country.
With all of the above said Mark Richt’s team has been awful over the past two seasons including things getting capped off in the bowl last year somehow losing to Central Florida. They also lost a ton of talent including all world receiver AJ Green and are extremely young this season. Therefore, even with a potential star quarterback in Aaron Murray I just do not see how this team can all of a sudden rise back up to prominence. Yes the Bulldogs had a great draft class with the so-called “dream team” that includes a possible great running back in Isaiah Crowell. But until these young guys actually show they are ready I’m not fully buying into Georgia being back and at a small field goal against a perennial top 5 team is a bit cheap.
Boise is far from a fluke as Chris Petersen has legitimately made this program into an elite school. They may be a little down this season after losing some wideouts but I don’t see them nearly as down as the Dawgs still may be. Things should not be easy today down south for the visitors from the blue turf but the Broncos are the superior squad that should be able to take of business in the end.
Bob Balfe
Colorado +6.5 over Hawaii (Moneyline +210)
Hawaii has all new players on the offensive line with their only starter being suspended for this game. Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz is a great player, but I do not think he will have the time to throw like he did last year especially early on in the year. Colorado is going to stick to the run with the speedy Rodney Stewart who can hide behind the big offensive line. The Buffs won last years meeting when they figured out all they had to do was run the football which kept Hawaii’s Offense off the field. I think the Buffs are further along right now and its going to take some time for Hawaii to get on the same page. This is a perfect money line play and is like winning two bets if it cashes. Take Colorado.