John Ryan
Boise St. at Georgia
Prediction: Boise St.
5* graded play on Boise State as they take on Georgia set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game by four or more points.
The simulator shows a very high probability that Boise State will score 28 or more points and will average more than 10 yards per pass attempt in this game. In past games where these levels of achievement have occurred Boise State is a solid 35-10 ATS making 24.0 units per one unit wagered when they gain 10 or more net passing yards per attempt since 1992; 88-31 ATS making 53.9 units per one unit wagered when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Georgia is a horrid 14-44 ATS losing 34.4 units per one unit wagered when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.
Cantor Sports, who owns the M casino in Las Vegas, has become the clear leader in advanced game betting. They have posted lines for the entire NFL season. Interesting too, is that this firm is a subsidiary of the prestigious Wall Street bond trading firm Cantor Fitzgerald. As I have stated so many times, there are buyers and sellers for every market known to man and establishing lines for sporting events is certainly one of them.
The lines posted are referred to as soft, which means that lines can move significantly without a significant amount of dollar volume behind the bets. Georgia opened as a 6 1/2 point dog to Boise, but has since dropped to just 1 1/2 points before Boise State support moved the number to it?s current 3 1/2 points. Wise Guy money has come in strongly on Boise State at two points and I would recommend getting down on this play immediately.
The dominant reason for the line move is the public hype that has been building on Georgia and expectations for an SEC East Championship. But is the hype really backed by solid facts?
The Georgia Bulldogs had a 6-7 season last year and although head coach Mark Richt is the dean of SEC coaches and is third on the all-time wins list in Georgia football history he is on the hot seat this season. Yet, there are so many question marks for this team entering the season.
First, no team could have had a worse off-season at the running back position than Georgia. Washaun Ealey, who gained 811 yards for a 5.2 yards per rush average announced his transfer from the team. It may in large part been a decision made in the aftermath of Isaiah Crowell deciding to play for the Bulldogs. He is arguably the best freshman running back in the country at 5-10 and 210 pounds of brutal strength and electric quickness. The problem is that rarely does a college football team excel with a freshman running back and one that is expected to be a big time contributor right from the start of the season.
The other problems at running back are the fact that Caleb King, who gained 430 yards, has been ruled academically ineligible for 2011 and Carlton Thomas, who gained 210 yards, has been suspended for the first game of the season. This all but guarantees that Crowell will be starting at running back in the Boise State game.
The Georgia defense was a big issue last season as well and I don?t see that unit being anymore consistent in this season. Statistically, the defense had the largest covariance in the country last season. This simply means that the defense dominated weak offenses and struggled mightily against the strong offenses. Championship teams in the SEC will have won the majority of their games by the start of the fourth quarter and can rely, if necessary, on a strong defensive unit to preserve leads. Georgia does not have that component and is one of the many reasons I see them losing this game.
Georgia will have a strong offense again this season, but the defense will not be consistent enough to maintain leads. Boise State enters this game with a favorable matchup noting they are 22-7 ATS making 14.3 units per one unit wagered when facing good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game since 1992; 8-1 ATS making 6.9 units per one unit wagered facing good offensive teams averaging 425 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. Take Boise State
Telly
One of my six free picks today. Check my site for the others.
South Florida +10.5
JACK HOWARD
LSU +3
This was a line that opened with Oregon getting 3 now they are a 3 point favorite. In last years BCS championship game Auburn's physical play especially on defense proved to give Oregon's offense alot of trouble and LSU's defense isn't much different. Even with the absence of QB Jordan Jefferson LSU still has a very experienced offensive line which they will utilize in the run department vs. a very inexperienced and undersized Oregon defense. Prediction: 31-27 LSU
South Florida +10.5
I'm still not sold on ND. Everyone thinks that they are underrated I think they are overrrated. ND is also a team that really struggled last year against the spread and QB B.J. Daniels and RB Demetris Murray are going to give the Irish a huge test in week one. Prediction: 27-24 Irish
RICHIE CARRERA
South Florida +11
The X-factor in this game is ND quarterback Dayne Crist and whether or not he can handle the re-vamped ND offensive scheme. I have my doubts in week 1 against a good defensive foe like South Florida. The Bulls have a fast defense that will probably contain Crist and force him to make bad decisions. On the other side of the coin, BJ Daniels leads a South Florida team that many have pegged to win the Big East. Daniels is the total package; He can run and pass effectively. So for me, it is all about quarterback play in this week one matchup and who will make fewer mistakes. My money is on BJ Daniels. Take the extra 2.5 points that Vegas has gift-wrapped for us and jump on the Bulls for 10 dimes.
Buffalo +30.5
Anyone who followed me last year knows that it is rare for me to throw up a 30 point dog. My motto is "Only take a dog that you feel can win outright". I am going to break my own rule in week 1 and take Buffalo. While it is extremely unlikely that Buffalo pulls this one out on the road, I do think that they keep it closer than 30 point. Ewww.. "keep it close".. I don't even like how that sounds! Nonetheless, what we have is a "High Octane" or perceived "High Octane" Pitt offense installed by newcomer head coach Todd Graham. Graham lit up the scoreboard with Tulsa, but even he admits that it took a while to get the pieces in place. While he does have some talent to work with, I believe that he will be employing a limited playbook that caters to it's personal. What also remains a question mark is whether QB Tino Sunseri will be able to run the offense effectively. Take all of that road chalk and root for that clock to tick away!
Indiana -6
While on the subject of new coaches, let's talk about Kevin Wilson and the Hoosiers. Can he turn Indiana into a legit B10 player? Certainly not overnight, but the first step in a seemingly lengthy process would be to blow out the Ball St. Cardinals. While I have my doubts about Wilson from a strategy perspective, there is no denying his ability as a motivator. A source close to the team confirmed the buzz about how intense Wilson's practices have been. And where better for this new found toughness and confidence to shine... On the Offensive line. This veteran bunch will be the most important unit on the field today, as they are tasked with blocking for a whole new backfield. A backfield not without talent, but one with the label: unproven. We know Indiana's transition is not without question marks, but the Ball St. transition looks much more questionable in my opinion. New Cardinal head coach Pete Lembo (formerly of Elon) has installed a no-huddle offense; A feast or famine (probably famine) approach for the fledgling MAC program albeit. So with admittedly only part of the playbook installed due to complexity, Ball St. will rely on a Sophomore QB to lead them over Indiana on the road... Not happening. In the battle of new coaches, let's roll with the "tough, confident" team at home over the "innovative" team, laying less than a touchdown and extra point for our troubles.
David Banks
Boise State / Georgia Under
A doozy of a college gridiron match-up is set to go in prime time Saturday night from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA where the 5th ranked Boise State Broncos will look to take a step forward in contending for the BCS championship when it opposes the SEC East representative Georgia Bulldogs; kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 ET on ESPN.
Just a short season ago, HC Chris Petersen’s kids found themselves in the unenviable position of having to go all the way out to the east coast to match-up with the Virginia Tech Hokies. Though FedEx Field was just a hop, skip and a jump from Blacksburg, the Broncos fended off the Hokies and their crowd en route to securing the 33-30 win in the final moments. Now they get to meet up with the 19th ranked Bulldogs in basically their own backyard in yet another BCS elimination game the first week of the season. QB Kellen Moore and his mates stand an astounding 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS their L/17 road battles.
Georgia suffered its first losing record under the HC Mark Richt regime last year after falling to Central Florida 10-6 in the Liberty Bowl; it was the programs first since 1996. Having said that, the city of Athens is very much so of the belief that the Dawgs will return to prominence within the SEC in 2011. And why not, with SEC 1st Team Frosh QB Aaron Murray back in the fold after throwing for 3049 yards while sporting a 24-8 TD/INT ratio for the season. With a new influx of highly recruited talent and some excellent weapons on both sides of the ball and on special teams, the Bulldogs are many a pundits’ choice to surprise and win the SEC East this season.
There has only been one other meeting between these schools and it came back in 2005 between the hedges where the Dawgs steamrolled Jared Zabransky and the Broncos 48-13 as 7.5-point home chalk. Boise State has only dropped eight games SU since and stands a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS in neutral field games the L/3 seasons as well as 11-0 SU & 8-2-1 its L/11 vs. non-conference opponents. Georgia has failed to cover each of its L/4 as underdogs and has managed just one cover in its L/4 neutral field tries. The Dawgs are however 7-3 SU their L/10 against non SEC combatants.
OC Dooley
Brigham Young -2.5
We are seeing major change this season across the college football landscape and Brigham Young just happens to be one of the programs in transition. In an effort to gain more national attention Brigham Young has left the Mountain West Conference to become an INDEPENDENT school similar to Notre Dame. Immediately after becoming an independent program the Cougars signed a contract that allows ESPN to telecast selected regular season contests like the one that kicks off late this afternoon. Due to their new independent status the Cougars are faced with a very difficult September schedule that will eventually see them host a pair of established programs in Utah and Central Florida. But before hitting home base Brigham Young opens 2011 on the road against an opponent from the most dominant college conference (SEC) today and next week versus powerhouse Texas who is so strong they just developed in conjunction with ESPN their own 24-hour Longhorn Network. Considering that Brigham Young opened last year with a dismal 2-5 mark, it is a bit shocking that the oddsmakers have cast them as a road favorite this afternoon so the visitors obviously have some promise. The Cougars climbed from a #101 national defensive ranking to #24 down the stretch in a 6-2 finish that saw head coach Bronco Mendenhall take over the play calling duties. According to the coaching staff that Brigham Young defense following spring drills appeared to be the best that the school has seen in more than a decade as they are very active and athletic. Mississippi quickly fell from national grace a year ago and they begin a brand new campaign with quarterback problems as projected starter Randall Mackey was recently arrested following a bar fight. That leaves sophomore transfer Barry Brunetti to make his first-ever college level start this afternoon for an Ole Miss squad that already had to endure a major hit to the defense back in the spring when emotional TEAM LEADER (linebacker D.T. Shackelford) tore up his knee. The Rebels finished last year way down at #12 defensively in the SEC Conference even when Shackelford was healthy. Visiting Brigham Young has an edge in the trenches today as 4 different offensive linemen have returned from 2010 including star tackle Matt Reynolds who passed up early NFL eligibility to return for his senior season. Most reading this analysis will remember two years ago when Brigham Young traveled to the home of the NFL Cowboys in game-one and ended up stunning an Oklahoma contingent that at the time was led by Sam Bradford. According to the oddsmakers it would not come as a shock if BYU won their road opener once again late this afternoon
Rick Needham
Boise State (-3½) at Georgia
Here’s The Deal … Despite all the big moments, and even with all the double-digit win seasons, and through all the prove-it games, Boise State still can’t get any semblance of love. The Broncos are being lied to time and again, and because of their schedule, and because no one wants to give them a real, honest shot to play for the national title, they’re being led again to think that it’ll matter if they win the big game against the name team. The conventional wisdom was that if Boise State beat Virginia Tech in last year’s season opener – a home game for the Hokies in Landover, Maryland – the respect would come. Tech went on to win the ACC title and played in the Orange Bowl, while college football couldn’t have celebrated more when Nevada pulled off the upset over the Broncos in late November. Did the Broncos improve their stature and standing in any way after dominating and destroying a 2009 Oregon team that went on to win the Rose Bowl? No. Did anyone care a lick after the win over Oregon at Oregon in 2008? No. Oh, sure, during the idle time of a few offseasons, the media paid lip-service to the idea of Boise State really and truly being a top five team after beating TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl to finish 14-0 and after shocking the world in the win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, but that didn’t last long. And this year, it doesn’t matter if Boise State pulls off the win over Georgia, because once again, no one around any BCS conference will buy into the idea that the team could last against a real week-in-and-week-out schedule. It doesn’t matter that the program has proven itself over and over and over and over again. It doesn’t matter that Toledo could be one of the best teams in the MAC and it doesn’t matter that Tulsa could win the Conference USA title. It doesn’t matter that Nevada, Air Force, and TCU are all going to be strong – and all three have to go to Boise. All that matters is that BCS-league fans are going to notice that this game against Georgia is the only one against a BCS conference team. Even if Boise State does go 12-0, it’s going to take the Alabamas, Oregons, and Ohio States of the world to royally screw up for a Mountain West team to end up in New Orleans on January 9th. And if the Broncos lose, then that’s it for the national relevance until BCS at-large time – fair or not – even at 11-1. It’s a far different situation for Georgia, who has as bizarre a situation as any team going into this season. After going 6-7 last year, head coach Mark Richt is on a double-secret hot seat that can’t go up even one more degree. If he and his Dawgs beat Boise State – showing how times have changed when an SEC has to prove itself against a Mountain West squad – and follow it up with a win over South Carolina to kick off SEC play, the “this year’s Auburn” tag will start to get thrown out. Making the scenario even more wild, Georgia could lose its first two games, deal with the “Georgia’s next coach will be … “ articles, and still go on to win the conference title with as light and breezy an SEC schedule as anyone could dream of. Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU are the three best teams in the SEC, and possibly three of the five best teams in America, and Georgia misses them all. Considering the Boise State and Georgia Tech games are in Atlanta, and with the Florida showdown always in neutral territory, the Dawgs have just three true road games: at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt. Yes, Boise State could win this game, go 12-0, and it still won’t be given the respect of the credit that Georgia will receive if it goes 10-2 and ends up winning the SEC championship. In the running narrative that is the college football season, this will be a key chapter. If you don’t want another year like last one, when 37% of the time and energy went to discussing the worthiness of Boise State, get your Georgia pom-poms out. If you want to see the SEC get knocked down a peg, hope for the Broncos to pull out the win. Either way, no matter what the outcome, this will turn out to be one of the most important games of the season.
Why Boise State Might Win: At some point, Boise State will be recognized for having a hard-nosed football team that stuffs running games cold. Nevada ran for 269 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos, and Utah State rolled up 250 yards in a 50-14 loss, but the run defense held Virginia Tech to just 128 yards, allowed a mere 78 against Oregon State, kept Fresno State to 45, and allowed just 107 against Utah on the way to finishing seventh in the nation against the run and second in total D and scoring D. That wasn’t an aberration, allowing just 120 rushing yards per game in 2009, 118 in 2008 and 131 in 2007. Ryan Winterswyck is gone to the NFL, but everyone else is back on the defensive front including most of the key backups. The line is so good that it’ll overshadow Byron Hout and the tremendous linebacking corps all year long, and the front seven isn’t going to allow much of anything against the Georgia ground game. The Dawg offensive line got hit with injuries again, the stable of running backs went from deep and talented to injured and questionable with Caleb King and Washaun Ealey gone and Richard Samuel and Isaiah Crowell both limping. No, Georgia won’t be able to power the ball on the Broncos.
Why Georgia Might Win: Back up to the Boise State opener last year against Virginia Tech. The Broncos were excellent on special teams, they took advantage of a key fumble early on, D.J. Harper took off for a 71-yard scoring dash, and the defense played lights out. Even with all of that, and even with the Hokies sputtering all night long, it still took a phenomenal late drive and a Heisman-caliber moment from Kellen Moore to pull the game out of the fire. No one will beat Georgia on special teams this year, especially in the kicking game; the Dawgs finished 19th in the nation in turnover margin and will almost certainly be stingier with the ball now that quarterback Aaron Murray has a year of experience, and the defense should be better at getting into the backfield and should be far stronger against the run and should have a huge advantage in the secondary. This might be a no-name defense, but it has the pieces in place to be rock solid, especially against the pass. Georgia might sputter and cough at times on offense, and it’s hardly going to come up with an even performance, but if it can win in the other two phases of the game, it should be able to pull this off. How good is the Georgia secondary? Top safety Bacarri Rambo isn’t assured of a starting spot with several players competing for jobs in the deep group. Considering the defensive front seven is better, the Bronco offense should have consistency problems especially because …
What To Watch Out For: This might come down to which team’s new batch of receivers can make the biggest impact. The Boise State receiving corps might be the biggest question mark of any unit on any top ten team. Titus Young finished his Boise State career with 204 catches for 3,063 yards and 25 touchdowns, along with eight touchdown runs, and Austin Pettis ended his great career with 229 catches for 2,838 yards and 39 touchdowns. Geraldo Boldweijn – the artist formerly known as Geraldo Hiwat – and Tyler Shoemaker are promising, and having a Heisman-caliber quarterback getting them the ball makes things easier, but this isn’t a Georgia secondary that a team can tune-up against. Young and Pettis combined for 141 of the team’s 299 catches last season, while Shoemaker and Boldweijn combined for 43. Can the receivers come through in the clutch? They might have to. Georgia doesn’t have secondary problems, but Boise State does, replacing three key starters. The new Dawg starting receivers have to take advantage of the matchups with all eyes on Tavarres King, Marlon Brown, Malcolm Mitchell, and Rantavious Wooten to try to replace A.J. Green and Kris Durham, who combined to make 89 of the team’s 218 catches. Like Boise State’s situation, the hope will be for the stellar quarterback, Aaron Murray, to make everyone better.
BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Don’t buy into any sort of abstract idea that Georgia is going to win because it really, really wants to. Oregon went out of its way to declare that it was going to make a statement in the opener two years ago, and it got beaten up and battered in an embarrassing loss. Virginia Tech was going to kick off its big year with a win last year, and didn’t get the job done. The Dawgs will come out smoking, but Kellen Moore will be Kellen Moore as he calmly and coolly spreads the ball around and makes key throw after key throw to keep the Georgia defense on its heels. The Bronco defense will shut down the running game and will get into the backfield just enough to bother Murray into a mediocre game … and it won’t be enough. The Dawgs will get several field goals from Blair Walsh, a few big kick returns, and one great drive to get ahead, and then they’ll hang on for dear life as this year’s Bronco last-gasp first game comeback falls just short with a missed field goal at the end. Don't expect anything pretty. I'll TAKE GEORGIA TO BEAT THE SPREAD!
Don Wallace Sports
S Carolina vs E Carolina
Pick: E Carolina +20.5
The Gamecocks are getting a lot of love from the media this preseason. The New York Times is predicting a BCS National Championship as is one of the Stewart brothers on ESPN's First Take. And for good reason, South Carolina is essentially returning their entire team from last season. A season that had them playing for the SEC championship. They have two future first round draft picks in running back Marcus Lattimore and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey. Not to mention senior quarterback Steven Garcia and coaching legend Steve Spurrier at the helm. On paper this game appears to be a blowout, However, South Carolina better be very careful come Saturday. Second year head coach Ruffin McNeal has brought Mike Leach's offense with him from Texas Tech where McNeal was Leach's defensive coordinator. Offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley uses a carbon copy of Leach's Air Raid Offense. Quarterback Dominique Davis threw for 3967 yards and 37 touchdowns last season in his first season. Those numbers should continue to improve in 2011. The gensis of this offense is that it's based on execution. It is designed to win shoot outs versus superior opponents. And talent-wise, South Carolina is far superior. But Lincoln Riley is used to that. He was on Leach's staff when Texas Tech was pulling off upsets versus Oklahoma and Texas. The biggest difference in these two teams is that South Carolina has an dominant defense and the Pirates have an awful one. It is going to be up to the East Carolina Air Raid offense to keep them in the game. Spurrier has won and covered openers in each of the last three years but he's only 3-5 last 8 as chalk away from home. East Carolina 6-2 ATS last 8 as a homedog. Based on my Power Ratings, I have South Carolina at -17, so there is tremendous value in the number here. SOUTH CAROLINA 49 EAST CAROLINA 31