Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday September 5,2009

Alex Smart
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Louisiana Tech @ Auburn
PICK: Auburn -12.5
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The Auburn Tigers open up their season by hosting the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs this Saturday. The linesmakers are playing to public perceptions and their short term memories in this spot as the Tigers are being made just 12.5 point favorites. I know Auburn had a rough end to their season in 2008 ,losing 6 straight vs FBS opponents, but this program still has a boatload full of talent at their disposal. With 15 returning starters in the lineup new HC Chizik who takes over from Tommy Tubberville must still be respected especially against a decent but not quite ready for prime time Louisiana Tech side that plays in the lower tier WAC. The Tigers are part of one of the toughest conferences (SEC West) in all of College Football , and and must not be underestimated. Final notes & Key Trends: Auburn is 89-25-2 all time in season openers SU and are 10-0-1 in this series vs LA Tech, winning the last meeting by 45 points. The Bulldogs are 12-28 ATS in road openers in the first half of the season, losing SU by an average of 17.9 PPG (dating back to the early 90's)
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Projected score: Auburn 34 LA Tech 10

DAVE MALINSKY
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Middle Tennessee @ Clemson
PICK: Middle Tennessee +18.5
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When a pointspread is this high the result will often go beyond matchups and personnel issues, and instead be determined by the focus of the teams involved. That gives us both a Play Against and a Play On in this one, and ultimately a result much closer than what the oddsmakers are calling for.
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If ever there was a “Win and get back to the dorms” setting for an opener this is it. Clemson is caught in the awkward cycle of having a major A.C.C. revenge showdown at Georgia Tech on national television Thursday night, and that impacts both the intensity level and the technical preparations here. Because the Yellow Jacket option schemes are so unorthodox under Paul Johnson, putting a defensive game plan in place in a short practice week is a major headache. So how much time will have been taken away from preparation for this particular game, and instead geared towards Tech? Plenty. That not only opens up some breathing room for Middle Tennessee to be successful during the game, but it also means that Dabo Swinney will perceive the time remaining as the key item on the scoreboard in the second half, wanting to shorten the evening to keep his better players fresh for the quick turnaround ahead. And with so many new faces in the skill positions it is not at though this offense brings the kind of cohesion and explosiveness needed to cover this type of margin anyway.
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For Middle Tennessee the focus is entirely different. Head coach Rick Stockstill worked for a couple of years to get this trip on the schedule, after serving as a Clemson assistant for 14 seasons earlier in his career, and that trickles down throughout the program – four of his assistant coaches also spent time on the sidelines in Death Valley, and Justin Watts and Willie Simmons wore Tiger uniforms on this field. Add in four other members of the program with Clemson ties and this trip carries a lot of meaning. The key is that the Blue Raiders also bring enough to do something about it. They more than held their own outside of the Sun Belt LY, beating Maryland outright by 10 and losing to Kentucky and Mississippi State in single digits, and now Stockstill has his best team yet, especially on offense, where Dwight Dasher finally gets to run the show full-time at QB, with all other 10 starters returning. They are going to spread the field with four-WR sets that are entirely different from what Clemson is going to face at Georgia Tech, which means not only a chance to be competitive right from the start, but also prime back-door potential, should we need to come in through that direction.

Freddy Wills
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Kentucky vs. Miami Ohio
Take Kentucky -14.5
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Why Kentucky on such a large spread of more than 2TD's. Well I'll tell you why I really like this team to surprise some this year they have 3 studs on defense back this year and their best in CB Trevard Lindley is a shut down corner. What I most like about this team is how they have opened in the last two years with 27-2 win over Louisville last year and a 50-10 win over Western Kentucky the year before. Rich Brooks is an excellent coach and without him the Kentucky program was garbage. This is a team that stayed right with Alabama last year losing by three points. They also were playing right with Georgia in a 4 point loss. They play out of the nations top conference in the SEC and have 14 straight non-conference wins just showing you how powerful the SEC really is. They have 3 returning starters on the O-line and 4 seniors as well as their best OL in sophmore guard Stuart Hines. Give any QB time and he'll find his play makers. Kentucky has speed all over the field including Randall Cobb who can play everywhere. They'll face a rebuilding Miami Ohio team out of the MAC. Miami brought in new coach Mike Haywood from Notre Dame, but I just see this as more of a scrimmage than anything year. This was a team most picked to win the MAC and they finished 2-10. They ranked 12th in rushing and total offense while their defense was 9th in the MAC. They were 108th in the nation in sacks and 97th in tackles for loss. I really do not see them being able to get pressure on Hartline allowing him to throw to whoever he wants.

Cajun Sports
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Baylor vs. Wake Forest
Play: Baylor +2
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These two teams met for the opener last season at Baylor with Wake Forest getting the win 41 to 13. The Deacons had the better club last year but the final score was helped by the Bears turning the ball over five times which led to 21 points for Wake. This game should be much more competitive even with Baylor having to travel. In that loss to Wake in their opener last season the Bears looking for a spark at the half put freshman QB Robert Griffin into the game and he didn’t make much difference in the Wake contest but he certainly helped them the rest of the season. He threw for 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions last season plus added another 1,118 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. Needless to say he is a threat on the offensive side of the ball and the Bears return 8 starters on offense. Baylor has the edge when their offense faces the Wake defense, the Demons lost seven starting defensive players from a year ago which included a quad of NFL draftees. Wake returns a decent offensive line, core group of running backs and their senior QB but we still give the edge to Baylor here. Baylor is also active in one of our CFB Systems that says to Play ON a non-conference underdog in this price range before at least ten days of rest and a home game on deck. These underdogs are a perfect 8-0 ATS and average covering the number by 15.7 points per game. Take the points here as the Baylor Bears pull off the mild upset on the road over the Demon Deacons on Saturday.
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Graded Selection: 2* Baylor Bears 28 Wake Forest Deacons 20

LARRY NESS
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New Mexico @ Texas A&M
PICK: Texas A&M -13.5
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Rocky Long unexpectedly stepped down at New Mexico at the end of last season's disappointing 4-8 year. However, Long's 11-year tenure at New Mexico was far from disappointing, as he had the Lobos bowl eligible for seven consecutive seasons (2001-07). Long took the Lobos to a bowl game in five of six seasons from 2002-07, after the program had been to just one bowl game (1997) since the 1961 season. The Lobos lost their first four bowl ventures under Long but finally beat Nevada 23-0 in the 2007 New Mexico Bowl, marking the school's first bowl victory since its 28-12 win over Western Michigan in the now-defunct Aviation Bowl. My point being, considering New Mexico's history, Long's record was borderline outstanding! New Mexico typically had one of the nation's better rush defenses through most of the 2000s and when Rodney Ferguson ran for 1,176 yards last year, New Mexico has now had a 1,000-yard rusher for seven consecutive seasons, the longest active streak in the NCAA. That streak won't likely continue in 2009, as new head coach Mike Locksley is installing a more pass-oriented attack ("multi-Lobo" offense) with a lot of no-huddle formations. The defense has just three returning starters, a new DC and is switching from the 3-3-5 formation it's used for years to a 4-3 scheme. There is an awful lot new in Albuquerque this year and the team's nine returning starters represent the fewest of any team in the MWC. Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman (57-39 in six years at Green Bay with four playoff appearances) is in his second season at College Station. The Aggies were just 4-8 last year but expectations are much higher this season. QB Jerrod Johnson took over for Stephen McGee last year, completing 59.5 percent of his throws with 21 TDs and just 10 INTs. Johnson has all three of his leading receivers back from last year plus A&M expects a major improvement from its ground game. A&M's running game disappeared last season, averaging a paltry 88.5 YPG (2.9 YPC), which ranked 114th in the nation. This from a school which had averaged 212 YPG (4.8), 207 (5.0) and 235 (5.7) the previous three seasons. Big things are expected from speedy sophomore RB Cyrus Gray and from blue-chip freshman Christine Michael, described by Sherman as "ahead of schedule." A&M won in Albuquerque last year 28-22. An interception return for a TD was the game's first score and two more turnovers set up 20 and 21-yard TD drives for the Aggies. Johnson replaced an injured McGee in that game, and threw three TDs. Donovan Porterie, New Mexico's expected starter at QB in this game, threw two INTs in last year's contest plus his fourth-quarter fumble set up another score. New Mexico outgained Texas A&M 370 yards to 236 but the game wasn't as close as the final score. A&M opened a seven-point favorite in this game but the line has moved to 14 points. I like the Aggies in this game but hate the fact that anyone playing them come Saturday, has already lost the "best of the number." Still, with A&M not playing again until September 19 and with that opponent being lowly Utah State, I fully expect Sherman to have his team poised for a big win in its home opener. There are t0o many changes going on at New Mexico for the Lobos to compete here. Lay the two TDs.

Dave Busk
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Take #158 Miami, Ohio (+15) over Kentucky
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The oddsmakers open this line at Kentucky (-13.5) and some early betting has pushed this number past the key number fourteen. This Miami program has gone through some changes since their 2-10 season last year with the biggest change coming with the new head coach Mike Heywood. Heywood has been a assistant with some high profiled schools (Texas, Notre Dame and LSU) has immediately installed discipline into this program. This team has some pieces in place including starting quarterback Daniel Raudadaugh who from what I gather has been sharp in the offseason. I expect Miami, Ohio to be competitive in this game. I made this line Kentucky -9 and I will back the overlay with the doggie here.

Vegas Sports Informer
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Take Notre Dame (-14.5) over Nevada
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The Irish are set for a big season and will get off to a great start. They are 5-2 against the spared as a favorite and have had all summer to prepare for Nevada’s dangerous running game.

Indian Cowboy
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Take ‘Under’ 38 Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
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It is always tough being the new quarterback and having to get settled quickly into the season. This is what Greg McElroy will be facing in his first game as a starter with a national audience on ABC. Virginia Tech has a sound defense and this team closed the season winning four straight including defeating a very good Cincinnati team. Alabama still sports one of the best defenses in the country – if not the best on paper. I expect the defense to step up today after having tough results in the final two games of last year. After all, Nick Saban in press conferences continues to remind his players and others that this team gave up 31 points in back to back games to Florida and Utah to close the year. I expect this game to be hard fought with points coming in relatively difficulty as I have this game likely going under the posted total.

Steve Zukiel
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Navy vs. Ohio State
Play: Navy +22
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Ohio State has a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE game with USC next week as National Title hopes are on the line. With that being said, I look for the Buckeyes to totally overlook this game. If you don't believe me just go back to last season. In the week before playing the Trojans, the Buckeyes were facing a lightweight Ohio Bobcat squad. They were playing at home and they were 33 1/2 point favorites. Well guess what? Ohio State actually found themselves TRAILING IN THE FOURTH QUARTER and squeaked out a 12 point win. Therefore I can see it happening one more time. The Buckeyes are also just 5-10 ATS versus non-conference opponents while Navy continues to be a great road dog, sitting 14-4 ATS in their last 18 in this situation. Take the points in this one folks.

Tony George

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
Play: Virginia Tech +6.5
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What an opening game for these 2 teams, Alabama at #5 and VT at #8. They hook up in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on national TV for this one, and line has steadily moved up from 6 to 6.5, as the SEC no doubt has plenty of backers in this one.
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When looking at it from an opening game perspective, neither team will be in mid season form, and there are a ton of intangibles to consider. While Nick Sabin is perceived to be a good coach, Frank Beamer is a great coach. Without the pool of talent that Sabin has had over the years to win with, Beamer and his staff take leftovers and make them a championship caliber players with a team concept every year, that is great coaching. An interesting stat, “Beamer Ball” coached teams for VT have only lost 2 games by more than 5 points in their last 34 games!
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I like VT in this game because of a veteran defense which is rock solid, and as always, the special teams plays this team makes consistently has won countless games for them. I also like QB Taylor with a 3 deep RB unit and a solid WR unit for VT. Alabama is not without stars, and containing QB McElroy and WR Jones from hooking up for big plays will be priority one. Expect plenty of blitz packages and a strong 5 man front to shut down Tide RB Coffee from the Hokies. In a battle of what looks to be defenses, with points at a premium, 6.5 points is too many to lay, and Virginia Tech capable of a win here. This is a LIVE DOG selection, and I am calling for the outright win by the underdog in this game.
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Virginia Tech 17 Alabama 14 – Grab the Points

Carlo Campanella
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Minnesota U vs. Syracuse
Play: Minnesota U -6½
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One of the early games on the first Saturday of College Football features Minnesota in the road Favorite role as they head to Syracuse. Minnesota won 7 games last year in a very tough Big 10 Conference after opening the season on a 7-1 SU run and return 18 of their 22 starters from that team, including 10 of 11 from an offensive unit that averaged 23 points per game. In fact, Minnesota was 4-1 against non-Conference teams in 2008, only losing to Kansas in their Bowl game. Willing to lay the points with a more experienced Gophers squad knowing they've won 6 of their last 7 road openers outright and take on a Syracuse team under first year Head Coach Doug Marrone. 'Cuse was only 3-9 last year and Minnesota's 8 returning defensive starters should handle Syracuse's new offensive scheme that's run by red shirted Freshmen QB Ryan Nassib, who takes control of an offensive unit that only averaged 18 points per game and is 2-8 ATS during their last ten in the home Dog role!
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7* Play On Minnesota

TEDDY COVERS

Nevada @ Notre Dame
PICK: Over 61
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I don’t bet many Overs in the first week of the season. Without a preseason, it often takes a week or two for most college football offenses to work out their early season kinks, particularly in the red zone. That being said, there are exceptions to every rule, and this is one matchup that should be a real shootout.
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The last time we saw Notre Dame on the field, they hung 49 on Hawaii, as quarterback Jimmy Clausen threw for more than 400 yards. Clausen is back for his junior year, as are four of the starters on the offensive line protecting him. Nevada has plenty of experience returning in their secondary, but the talent is another question entirely. The Wolfpack ranked dead last in the country in pass defense last year, and gave up 69 points in their road opener at Missouri. Expect Notre Dame to make plenty of big plays downfield in this contest.
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But Nevada has a strong offense as well, led by junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2008. Kaepernick is a dual threat QB, guiding the offense to more than 500 yards per game and 37 points per game in 2008. With one of the better offensive lines in the WAC creating holes and junior running back Vai Taua to share the load, look for the Wolfpack to enjoy plenty of success on the ground against the rebuilt Notre Dame front seven.
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2* Take the Over.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Oklahoma -22
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Bottom Line: Oklahoma beat a TCU team by 25 points that smoked BYU 32-7 last season and this year's BYU team won't be as good as last years with only 4 offensive starters returning. I think OU will be just as good as it was a season ago, if not better, because a defense which returns 8 starters should improve. OU tight end Gresham won't go, but I don't see this as an issue. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September while the Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. I think BYU is overrated and the Sooners will prove it with a big win.

Vernon Croy

Akron vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -27

The Nittany Lions are obviously the superior team here but can they cover this large number in their first game of the season, you bet. This is a high powered Nittany Lions offense even with the new wide-outs and they will be able to put up points fast in this game. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has looked great this preseason and he is a big threat in the pocket. The Nittany Lions revamped offensive line will not be tested in this game because the Zips defensively are not great. The Nittany Lions defense is very strong even with the new secondary since last years secondary could not have looked much worse against USC in the Rose Bowl. The Zips are simply out-matched and do not have an answer for this Penn State spread offense that has so many weapons. Take the Penn State Nittany Lions Saturday afternoon.