SPORTS ADVISORS
Nevada at (23) Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish, with coach Charlie Weis facing a critical season if he hopes to remain on the job, open the 2009 campaign with a home contest against Nevada.
Notre Dame went 7-6 SU and ATS last year, barely managing to reach a bowl game after losing its last two regular-season games – a 24-23 home upset as a 19½-point home chalk against lowly Syracuse, followed by a 38-3 whitewashing as an overwhelming 33½-point underdog at Southern Cal. The Irish managed to finish on a high note, with a 49-21 rout of Hawaii as a 2½-point favorite in the Hawaii Bowl, the school’s first postseason win in 15 years.
The Irish have junior QB Jimmy Clausen returning off a season in which he completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 3,174 yards, with 25 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Golden Tate had 1,080 receiving yards and a team-leading 11 TDs.
Nevada also went 7-6 SU but was just 5-7 ATS in 2008, failing to cover in its last three games (1-2 SU), including a 42-35 loss to Maryland as a 2½-point chalk in the Humanitarian Bowl. Dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick returns after throwing for 2,479 yards and rushing for another 1,103 last year, accounting for 35 TDs (19 passing, 16 rushing) while throwing just five INTs.
The Irish have cashed in five of their last seven as a favorite, but they are on ATS slides of 1-5 in season openers, 6-13 at home, 3-7 in September and 2-9 laying more than 10 points, and Weis’ troops are 1-6 ATS as a double-digit home chalk since 2006. The Wolf Pack haven’t been much better from a wagering perspective, carrying negative ATS streaks of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as a pup, 3-8 on the highway and 5-11 as a road ‘dog of more than 10. Nevada is also just 4-9 ATS its last 13 non-conference road contests.
The over is 4-0-1 in Notre Dame’s last five home games, and the over for Nevada is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 6-0 when the Pack are a road ‘dog of more than 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(13) Georgia at (9) Oklahoma State
A battle between the Southeastern Conference and the Big 12 takes place in Stillwater when the Cowboys play host to Georgia.
Oklahoma State is coming off a solid season, going 9-4 SU and 8-4 ATS in 2008. However, the Pokes lost their last two games SU and ATS, falling to archrival Oklahoma 61-41 as a 10-point home pup, then losing 42-31 to Oregon as a one-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. The Cowboys have three major offensive threats back, in QB Zac Robinson (3,068 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs), RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and wideout Dez Bryant (87 catches, 1,482 yards, 19 TDs). Robinson, who completed 65 percent of his passes in 2008, also rushed for 561 yards and eight TDs.
Georgia went 10-3 SU but just 4-7-1 ATS in 2008, failing to cash in its final four regular-season games before beating Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point favorite in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. The Bulldogs, who entered last year as the top-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, who were both taken in the first round of the NFL draft, with Stafford going No. 1 overall. But coach Mark Richt has an experienced, if not tested, QB in redshirt senior Joe Cox.
These two teams met two years ago in the season opener in Athens, Ga., with the Bulldogs rolling to a 35-14 victory as a 6½-point favorite.
After cashing in their first eight games last year, the Cowboys finished on an 0-4 ATS skid (1-3 SU). However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 at home, 6-0 as a home chalk (5-0 last year) and 41-20-2 overall as a favorite. The Bulldogs, despite ending 2008 on a 1-4 ATS slide, are on spread-covering streaks of 5-1 outside the SEC and 7-1 as a road pup (4-0 last four). They are also 15-8 ATS in their last 23 roadies overall, and they are on an 18-3 SU tear on the highway.
The under is 23-8 in Georgia’s last 31 September starts, but the over is on tears of 5-0 with the Bulldogs getting points, 29-9 with Oklahoma State at home and 17-5 with the Cowboys as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
San Jose State at (4) USC
Perennial national championship contender Southern Cal opens the 2009 campaign at the Los Angeles Coliseum against the Spartans.
USC, a double-digit favorite in every game last season, went 12-1 SU but a more middling 7-6 ATS, capping it off with a 38-24 Rose Bowl victory over Penn State as a 10-point chalk. The Trojans enter this year on a 10-game SU win streak (5-5 ATS) following their shocking 27-21 road loss to Oregon State as a whopping 24-point favorite. With QB Mark Sanchez darting to the NFL, Pete Carroll has opted to start true freshman Matt Barkley under center.
San Jose State went 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS last year, limping to the finish line by losing four of its last five SU and failing to cash in all five contests after opening the season 5-2 SU (5-1 ATS). The Spartans have senior QB Kyle Reed returning, though he had a nondescript junior campaign, completing 63.7 percent of his passes but netting just 1,537 yards, with nine TDs against six INTs.
The Trojans are on ATS upticks of 23-6 outside the Pac-10, 35-17 at the Coliseum and 8-2 in non-conference home games, and Carroll’s troops went 3-1 ATS last year as a chalk of 30 or more. USC has also won 11 straight season openers (7-4 ATS). The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five September starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests, but along with their current 0-5 ATS skid, they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 as a pup and 2-6 catching more than 10 points on the road.
The under for USC is on stretches of 17-6-1 overall, 16-5-1 at home, 4-0 in September and 21-8-1 as a favorite. Likewise, the under for San Jose State is on runs of 23-8-1 overall, 8-1 with the Spartans as a road pup and 6-2 in non-conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Missouri vs. Illinois
(at St. Louis)
Missouri and the Fighting Illini make the trek to the Edward Jones Dome for the third straight year for a Big 12-Big Ten battle between border rivals.
Missouri went 10-4 SU but just 5-8 ATS in the 2008 campaign, going 2-7 ATS in its final nine games, including pointspread setbacks in its last three contests (1-2 SU). The Tigers, who won the Big 12 North, finished the season with a 30-23 overtime victory against Northwestern as a heavy 14-point favorite in the Alamo Bowl. Missouri lost star QB Chase Daniel (4,335 passing yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs) and wideout Jeremy Maclin (95 catches, 1,221 yards, 12 TDs) from that squad. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert will take the reins.
Illinois lost its last three games SU and ATS to finish 5-7 SU and 4-7 ATS in coach Ron Zook’s fourth season, including a pair of upset losses to Western Michigan (23-17 as a 7½-point home chalk) and Northwestern (27-10 as a three-point favorite) to end the season. Mobile senior QB Juice Williams (3,173 passing yards, 22 TD passes; 719 rushing yards, 5 TDs) returns to lead the Illini’s explosive offense.
Missouri is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including a 52-42 win in a shootout in St. Louis last year, as the Tigers barely covered the 9½-point spread.
Under coach Gary Pinkel, the Tigers are on a 10-3 ATS tear in non-conference action, and they are on further spread-covering runs of 5-0 on turf, 6-1 in September and 4-1 against the Big Ten. The Illini have covered four of their last five September starts but are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 0-5 outside the Big Ten, 0-4 against the Big 12 and 0-4 at neutral sites.
The over for Missouri is on streaks of 26-10 as an underdog, 6-0 on turf and 5-1 in September, and the over for Illinois is on upswings of 5-1 on turf and 13-6 in September. Finally, the past two meetings in this rivalry soared over the posted price, as the two teams combined for 74 points in 2007 before last year’s 94-point outburst.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
(20) BYU vs. (3) Oklahoma
(at Dallas)
The Sooners begin their quest for a return trip to the BCS championship game as they travel to the sparkling new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas to take on Brigham Young.
Oklahoma is coming off a 12-2 SU and 10-3 ATS effort, but the season ended on a sour note with a 24-14 loss to Florida as a 4½-point ‘dog in the national title game Jan. 8 in Miami. That loss snapped a 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) roll that got the Sooners into the BCS final. Star QB Sam Bradford, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, returns after completing 67.9 percent of his passes last year for 4,719 yards with a whopping 50 TDs against just eight INTs. The Sooners averaged 51.1 points per game in 2008.
BYU went 10-3 SU last year but wasn’t nearly as successful at the betting window, with a 3-9 ATS mark. The Cougars covered just once in their last nine games and ended the year with a 31-21 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Arizona as a three-point underdog. QB Max Hall is coming off a big junior season, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 3,955 yards with 35 TDs and 14 INTs.
Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Sooners are on spread-covering sprees of 6-0 as a chalk, 9-1 in September and 7-2 in non-conference play, and Bob Stoops’ troops are 9-0 ATS in their last nine regular-season tilts outside the Big 12. Oklahoma is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games laying double digits, including 4-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk away from Norman.
The Cougars are on ATS skids of 1-6 outside the Mountain West and 1-4 as an underdog, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five September games.
The over for Oklahoma is on streaks of 12-2 overall, 10-3 in non-conference play and 8-3 in September, and four of BYU’s last five games in 2008 topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER
(7) Virginia Tech vs. (5) Alabama
(at Atlanta)
Perhaps the biggest game of opening weekend pits the Crimson Tide against Virginia Tech in a neutral-site, non-conference clash at the Georgia Dome.
Alabama rolled up wins in its first 12 games last year (9-3 ATS) in claiming the SEC West title, but finished the year by losing its last two games SU and ATS. The Tide fell to eventual national champion Florida 31-20 as a 10-point pup in the SEC title game, then got upset by unbeaten Utah in the Sugar Bowl, losing 31-17 as a 9½-point favorite.
Alabama lost QB John Parker Wilson (2,096 passing yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs), but the bigger loss is probably RB Glen Coffee (1,342 yards, 10 TDs, 6.1 ypc). QB Greg McElroy, with just 20 collegiate passing attempts, moves into the starting role for the Tide, and RB Mark Ingram (747 yards, 12 TDs, 7.7 ypc) also returns.
Virginia Tech is coming off a 10-4 campaign (6-7 ATS), winning their last four games (2-2 ATS). The Hokies capped the regular season with a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point chalk in the ACC title game in Tampa, Fla., then dropped Cincinnati 20-7 as a 2½-point pup in the Orange Bowl.
QB Tyrod Taylor returns to lead Va-Tech after rushing for 738 yards and seven scores, while throwing for another 896 yards (2 TDs, 6 INTs). However, leading rusher Darren Evans (1,113 yards, 10 TDs, 4.3 ypc) tore his left ACL in practice last month and is out for the year.
The Crimson Tide cashed in their first five roadies last year before the two-game skid to end the season, and Alabama is on a 5-1 ATS run as a chalk. The Hokies are on a 10-3 ATS roll as an underdog, but they are on spread-covering skids of 2-8 outside the ACC and 2-7 in September.
The over has hit in eight of Alabama’s last 11 September games, but the under is on stretches of 7-2 overall for the Tide, 6-2 with ‘Bama favored, 5-1 overall for Va-Tech and 4-1 for the Hokies in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Maryland at (12) California
Two teams coming off winning bowl appearances get together for the second straight year, this time at Memorial Stadium where the Golden Bears will host Maryland.
California is coming off a 9-4 SU and ATS effort, including a 24-17 victory over Miami, Fla., in the Emerald Bowl, though it failed to cover as a healthy 10-point chalk after ending the regular season on a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU). QB Kevin Riley (1,345 yards passing, 14 TDs, 6 INTs) took the majority of the snaps last year, though the departed Nate Longshore also saw a lot of action.
The key for the Bears, though, is the return of standout RB Jahvid Best, who piled up 1,409 rushing yards and 13 TDs, averaging a whopping 8.1 ypc. Shane Vereen, Cal’s second leading rusher last year with 678 yards (5.1 ypc), also returns.
Maryland fended off Nevada in a high-scoring Humanitarian Bowl 42-35 as a 2½-point pup last December, finishing the year 8-5 SU (6-6 ATS), though it cashed in just two of its last six games. QB Chris Turner (2,518 passing yards, 13 TDs, 11 INTs) is back for his third year as a starter, and top RBs Da’Rel Scott (980 yards, 6 TDs, 5.0 ypc) and Davin Meggett (418 yards, 4 TDs, 5.6 ypc) also return for the Terrapins.
These two teams met last September, with the Terps scoring a 35-27 upset victory as a heavy 14-point home underdog.
The Golden Bears were a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home last year, all from the favorite’s role, and they are on further ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 laying points and 4-1 in September. Cal is also 4-1 in its last five as a double-digit chalk.
Maryland is on ATS upswings of 5-1 catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in September, but the Terrapins also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 on the road and 2-5 as a road pup.
The over for Cal is on tears of 8-3-1 outside the Pac-10 and 16-7 when the Bears are a home favorite, and last year’s clash with Maryland barely cleared the 61-point total. On the flip side, the under for Maryland is on runs of 13-6 overall, 8-1 on the road and 7-3 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA
(11) LSU at Washington
Perennial SEC power LSU makes the trek to the Pacific Northwest to open the season against the Huskies, who are coming off a winless season.
LSU went 8-5 SU last year but was a dismal 3-9 ATS, failing to cash in six straight games (2-4 SU) before finally bouncing back in the season-ending Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a 38-3 blowout of Georgia Tech as a four-point underdog. Jarrett Lee (1,873 yards passing, 13 TDs, 16 INTs) started most of last season, but sophomore Jordan Jefferson overtook Lee on the depth chart this year and will start at QB. Leading rusher Charles Scott (1,109 yards, 15 TDs, 5.5 ypc) is back for the Tigers, as well.
Washington was awful on all counts last year, going 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS, costing Ty Willingham his job and ushering in former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian as the new head coach. Nine of the Huskies’ losses came by double digits, including eight by 20 points or more. QB Jake Locker, who started four games last year before breaking his thumb, is back to lead the offense. Starting RB Chris Polk also returns as a redshirt freshman after missing all but two games last year due to injuries.
The Tigers are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a chalk and 0-6 laying more than 10 points, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 20-8 in non-conference play and 15-6-1 as a road favorite. The Huskies carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 18-39-2 overall, 15-31 at home (1-6 last year), 0-8 as an underdog and 0-5 getting points at home.
The over for LSU is on stretches of 15-6 overall, 9-3 on the highway and 12-5 as chalk, and the over for Washington is on surges of 8-3 at home and 5-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (73-61) at Tampa Bay (72-62)
The Tigers look to take another step closer to the A.L. Central title when they send Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.05 ERA) to the Tropicana Field mound against Rays ace James Shields (9-10, 3.86).
Detroit followed up a three-game home sweep of the Indians with Friday’s 4-3, come-from-behind victory over the Rays, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth inning. Not only have the Tigers won four in a row, but they’re 14-7 in their last 21 (5-3 on the road) and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. On the downside, Jim Leyland’s squad is in slumps of 7-15 on the highway, 21-44 on the road against winning teams, 3-7 on Saturday and65-16 on field turf.
Tampa Bay is just 3-6 in its last nine games, including splitting a four-game set in Detroit last weekend. The Rays remain on positive runs of 37-16 at home, 73-27 at home versus right-handed starters, 49-16 in the second game of a series and 15-2 on Saturday.
These teams have meet 12 times since last August, with the host winning eight of those contests, and the Rays are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with Detroit at Tropicana Field.
Galarraga hasn’t started a game since Aug. 22 in Oakland, when he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings, but Detroit fell, 3-2. Behind Galarraga, the Tigers are in ruts of 1-7 overall, 1-4 as a visitor and 0-4 on Saturday. The young right-hander is 2-6 with a 5.65 ERA in 11 road starts, with Detroit going 3-8. Also, Galarraga faced the Rays twice last year, allowing one run in seven innings of a 6-5 loss at Tampa Bay, then surrendering five runs in 7 2/3 innings at home, but the Tigers prevailed, 7-5.
Shields earned an 11-7 victory at Detroit on Monday despite yielding five runs (four earned) on 10 hits in seven innings. The right-hander is now 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers, with Tampa Bay winning all five contests. Shields has won his last two starts – both on the road – after going 1-4 in his previous five outings. He’s 4-6 in 15 home starts this season despite a solid 3.35 ERA. The Rays have dropped Shields’ last five outings at The Trop.
For the Tigers, the under is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-2 on Saturday, 7-2 with Galarraga on the hill and 9-2 when Galarraga works on the road. Meanwhile, the under is 20-7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 29 games against the A.L. Central and 8-2-2 in its last 12 versus right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Stephen Nover
Nevada +14' at NOTRE DAME
Not only did I hit with my premium play on South Carolina Thursday night, but I also gave you a complimentary winner on North Texas, another underdog outright winner.
For Saturday's selection, I'm backing another puppy, Nevada plus the points against Notre Dame.
I'm glad Lou Holtz believes in Charlie Weis, thinking Notre Dame can play for the national championship. It's nice to know Weis has at least one supporter. No word if Holtz also believes in Santa Claus and the good tooth fairy.
Under Weis, the Irish have gone 10-15 the past two years, that's the most losses Notre Dame has endured during a two-year span. This includes a 2-14 straight-up mark versus bowl teams.
Sure the Irish look improved this season, but it's a mistake to underestimate Nevada. The Wolf Pack have the necessary offense to keep this matchup close.
Nevada averaged 500 yards and 37 points in 2008. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick runs Chris Ault's pistol offense to perfection. He was the first player in NCAA history to pass for 2,500 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season, while combining for 39 touchdowns. He has the talent to extend drives and produce big plays that will keep Notre Dame's potent offense off the field. Kaepernick also has two good running backs he can rely on, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott.
Defensively, the Irish are breaking in a rebuilt front seven. They're going against one of the better offensive line units on the West Coast.
No doubt Notre Dame can score with quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Nevada has a suspect secondary that ranked last against the pass in 2008. But Clausen can be prone to interceptions. He was picked off 17 times last year. The Wolf Pack can get a pass rush from the edge. Their defensive ends, Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped, combined for 21 1/2 sacks last season.
Nevada will be holding nothing back. This is a prestige game for the Wolf Pack. Ault has established a fine reputation in Nevada. The Wolf Pack are idle next week, while Notre Dame has more important and prestigious games on tap. The Irish travel to long-time rival Michigan next week and then host Michigan State.
3♦ NEVADA
Michael Cannon
Georgia +5' at OKLAHOMA STATE
Take Georgia plus the points this afternoon over Oklahoma State.
Georgia opens this year with a markedly different feeling than last, when they were the preseason No. 1 team and had quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno. Now the Bulldogs find themselves as an underdog going against one of the most powerful offenses in the nation.
But Georgia has cashed in 12 of its last 13 road games against non-SEC foes and the Bulldogs are 25-4 SU in season openers since 1980.
Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS as a chalk of seven or less points and 1-3 SUATS against SEC competition.
The Pokes were never known for their defense and that will make things easier for new Georgia quarterback Joe Cox.
The Bulldogs are 34-3 SU against non-conference opposition, including 28-1 SU during the regular season, under head coach Mark Richt.
Take the points with Georgia as they get it done over Oklahoma State.
2♦ GEORGIA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Georgia +4' at OKLAHOMA STATE
Here we have a case of a "chic" team in Oklahoma State going up against a proven commodity from the SEC in Georgia.
You saw on Thursday night how SEC South Carolina went on the road as the underdog, and won outright at NC State, and you will see how today in Stillwater Georgia will prevail plus the points.
Georgia comes into this game as true "road warriors", as the Bulldogs have gone 18-3 straight up as the visitor under Mark Richt the last 5 years, while going a profitable 8-3-1 against the spread as the underdog in those games.
Oklahoma State will get some scores that is for sure, as they have some serious talent back on offense, but the real question is if the Cowboys can "step it up" against a quality team, and we don't think they can.
The Pokes went just 1-4 straight up against upper-echelon foes last year, and we can easily see this game going right down to the wire.
We respect the Southeast Conference, and the Georgia Bulldogs road mark too much to fade them here.
Play on UGA plus the points.
3♦ GEORGIA
Jeff Benton
Missouri vs. Illinois -6'
I’m now on a 13-3 run with College Football freebies dating to last year after scoring with Boise State on Thursday. Let’s make it 14-3 on Saturday by laying the points with Illinois over Missouri in a neutral-site non-conference contest in St. Louis.
Simply put, these are two programs going in opposite directions. After back-to-back double-digit win seasons, Missouri is in major rebuilding mode this year, having lost a slew of key contributors, most notably record-setting QB Chase Daniel and electrifying All-American WR/KR Jeremy Maclin (not to mention an All-American tight end).
On the flip side, Illinois is poised for a big turnaround season in coach Ron Zook’s fifth year. Zook’s high-powered offense returns versatile QB Juice Williams (3,173 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, team-high 719 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs). Not only is Williams back, but so are a bunch of his weapons, including every player who helped pile up 2,034 rushing yards last season, plus its three leading WRs (in fact, eight of the Illini’s top nine receivers return).
Yes, Illinois’ defense remains a question mark, but unlike the last two season-openers against Missouri when they gave up 52 and 40 points, this time around, the Illini will be facing an extremely inexperienced Tigers offense. And let’s not forget that even in those two losses to Mizzou, Illinois put up 42 and 34 points. You have to believe the Illini can at least replicate that offensive output, considering Williams has another year of experience under center and considering the Tigers’ defense – always a weak spot – doesn’t figure to be any better this year.
This is a legitimate double-revenge spot for Illinois, and with the team knocking on the door of the Top 25, look for Zook to pile it on if given the opportunity. Lay the chalk.
5♦ ILLIINOIS
Dominic Fazzini
Minnesota -7 at SYRACUSE
There's plenty of reasons here to take the Gophers today.
Minnesota returns 18 starters from last year, including quarterback Adam Weber and star receiver Eric Decker.
Syracuse has lost 18 scholarship players in the past six months and starting quarterback Greg Paulus, who played basketball at Duke for the past four years, hasn't played football since 2004 when he was in high school.
The Gophers are 6-1 straight-up and ATS in road openers, while the Orange is 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU in home openers.
Minnesota started last season 7-1 before fading late and finishing 7-6, so you can be sure coach Tim Brewster has stressed the importance of playing hard every down. New Syracuse coach Doug Marrone inherits a team that has finished last in the Big East for four straight seasons. He might get things turned around eventually, but it's going to be ugly early on.
Take Minnesota to gain the easy win and cover in this one.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
New Mexico at TEXAS A&M -15
I'm 4-2 with my last six FREE plays, including 1-0 on the college gridiron after Thursday's comp winner on Boise State at home over Oregon. Tonight I've got another for you as I lay the chalk with Texas A&M at home over New Mexico.
Just way too much uncertainty in New Mexico to think they have a chance of going into Aggie-land and hanging close to Texas A&M. The Aggies started to see some positive signs at the end of last season and they'll capitalize on that this year.
Texas A&M has a QB in Jerrod Johnson who threw for 21 TDs a year ago and two quality running backs that are going to be a hell of a 1-2 punch in Cyrus Gray and freshman Christine Michael, who has been described as a "can't miss."
New Mexico lost four straight to end the season last year, inclulding losses at lowly UNLV and Colorado State. Now the Lobos have new coach Mike Locksley over from Illinois and a new, no-huddle offense that always takes a while to adopt. They're not coming out in the opening week and going to throw it all over the field for 400 yards and five TDs. There's going to be mistakes and lots of them.
Texas A&M has brought wholesale changes to the defense and you'll see a lot faster Aggies defense chasing the ball and ball carriers all over the field.
These two teams met last September 6 with the Aggies getting a 28-22 win in New Mexico as 2.5-point favorites. Texas A&M didn't have a problem putting up points last season, they had trouble stopping teams. With an offseason focus on defense, look for them to come out and make a statement in this one.
It's going to be a lopsided affair. Look for the Aggies to win this one 35-10.
4♦ TEXAS A&M
Michael Cannon
New Mexico at TEXAS A&M -15
Take Texas A&M as the home chalk over New Mexico.
New Mexico returns just nine starters and has a new head coach. That means new schemes on both sides of the ball, which takes time before the players can get comfortable with it.
The Aggies have 16 returning starters and this is coach Sherman’s second year. They have a favorable schedule which could provide the fuel for a 4-0 start before they face Oklahoma State on October 10.
New Mexico is 0-6-1 ATS in its first lined game and 1-3-1 ATS on the road versus Big 12 competition.
The Lobos will be switching to a pass-oriented offense under new coach Mike Locksley and it takes a few games for that type of offense to get the necessary timing down to be effective.
Take Texas A&M minus the points as they grab the big win and cover.
4♦ TEXAS A&M
Karl Garrett
San Diego State +14' at UCLA
G-Man thinks San Diego State's hiring of former Ball State head man Brady Hoke is an interesting hire, and that the points are worth taking tonight at the Rose Bowl.
Don't get me wrong, I don't see the Aztecs pulling the upset, but the Bruins are hardly reliable covering double-digits, and I don't see them covering the impost here.
San Diego State has a pair of new coordinators in Al Borges on the offense, and Rocky Long on the defense.
My feeling is the Aztecs will defend much better than in the past, and with UCLA's offense still a work in progress under Rick Neuheisel, I can definitely see the Bruins having a hard time stretching this margin.
State will also be able to run the ball with a little more authority this season, and that of course keeps the clock running which also makes it difficult for the favorite to pull away.
At the end of the day, expect the Bruins to win this one by around 13-points, falling just shy of the required impost.
G-Man taking the points here.
4♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Tony Weston
That’s 5 in a row in case you’re wondering. The Mariners come through and deliver and today we’re making it 6 straight Comp Play winners as we’re taking the Over on the BYU-Oklahoma matchup.
The Total set for this game is hovering around 67.5 points and with the amounts of offense on both sides of the ball and the lack of defense from both these teams, the Cougars and Sooners will score in abundance and run Over the Total.
Last season both BYU and Oklahoma were in the top 20 in points per game with the Cougars finishing 20th in the country, averaging 34.2 points per game. The Sooners, on the other hand, were one of the best offenses the country has ever seen, averaging 51.1 points per.
Both teams turned up the offense down the stretch with the Cougars averaging 38 points per game in their final five games of the regular season. BYU also had a stretch over the last six weeks of the season where it scored 41 points or more in three consecutive games.
On the other side, the Sooners averaged 62.3 points per game over their last six regular season games, scoring 61 points or more in each of their final five games before playing in the National Championship.
The 2009 season will begin just as the 2008 regular season ended, with a whole bunch of points. Take the Over easily in this one.
3♦ BYU-OKLAHOMA OVER
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner is on BYU over Oklahoma. I realize this might seem crazy going against the defending Heisman Trophy winner (Sam Bradford), but what some fail to realize is the fact that four of last year's five offensive linemen are gone to the NFL, two receivers are gone, and TE Jermaine Gresham is out with a knee injury. If the Sooners don't run the ball 40 times today they could be in danger of losing this game SU. Obviously I don't think that will happen as I believe DeMarco Murray is capable of running off about 200 yards of total offense against this smallish BYU defense. Cougars QB Max Hall really had a good season in 2008 and, for a short while, he was being considered for the Heisman. Obviously the hype didn't last long as Hall started to struggle down the stretch and the Heisman talk was over. Still, BYU had a solid season and their 3-3-5 defense might cause some problems for Oklahoma and QB Sam Bradford. If the Sooners can't run the ball early it's going to cause problems in the 3rd and 4th quarters. BYU won't win, but they'll keep it within 22.
2♦ BYU
Tom Freese
LSU at Washington
LSU is 20-8 ATS their last 28 Non-Conference games and they are 15-6-1 ATS their last 22 games as road favorites. The Tigers are 9-2-1 ATS their last 12 games and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as road favorites of 10.5 or higher. Washington has shown Tyrone Willingham the door. Offensive Guru Steve Sarkisian is now the Huskies coach. Success won't happen overnight as the Huskies were 0-12 straight up and 1-11 ATS last year. The Huskies are 17-39-2 ATS their last 58 home games and they are 0-8 ATS their last 8 games as underdogs. PLAY ON #195 LSU
King Creole
Looking for a few DOGGIES on Saturday to fill out that parlay or teaser ticket? Here'sTHREE of em from King Creole's TOP DOG (Speedee)!
TOLEDO ROCKETS plus the pts vs Purdue
WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS plus the pts vs Michigan
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES plus the pts vs Wisconsin
Three MAC teams with good DOGGIE value versus three unsure teams from the over-rated Big 10 Conference. And the Playbook College Football database indicates that are canines are the right side. The area of interest for us that banded these plays together was a query for when the BIG 10 teams play MAC teams.. and are laying sizable points. On the whole, the profits lay with the puppies in the first six weeks of the season.
5-16 ATS last 5 years: All BIG TEN double-digit favorites (Purdue / Michigan / Wisconsin) in the first 6 games of the season when playing an opponent from the MAC Conference. These high-priced favorites have done particularly bas in the first TWO games of the year (1-6 ATS last two seasons).
Another area that got our dogs' fur rising was the fact that we have a couple of teams who are laying BIG points in week one off very POOR seasons. Michigan won only 3 games last year and Purdue won only 4. Yet, the oddmakers have used some pretty thick 'chalk' in this opening weekend.
2-10 ATS last 4 years: All GAME ONE double-digit favorites who won 4 or LESS games last season (Michigan / Purdue). And if their opponents won 4 or MORE games last season, the results improve to a PERFECT 0-4 ATS.
GREG SHAKER
Rice Owls at Alabama-Birmingham Blazers
Play: UAB -6
I look for much bigger things from UAB this year than their 4-8 mark a year ago. They did win their last 2 of 3 last year, only losing to ECU at home over that 3 game stretch. They return 11 starters on offense and this year's team is going to click better because of it. Also, 5 of their front 7 D are back this year. The Rice Owls will experience huge growing pains offensively without their big three, Jarett Dillard, James Casey, and QB Chase Clement this season. They also lost their top 3 runners from last year's squad. The Owls do have some D Players back but they are just not that good. They are not very big and they are not very quick. They allowed almost 34 points per game last year and not much improvement expected this year. The Key in this game is the fact that UAB is much more experienced and have better personel on the field. A 2 TD or more win is expected here..