INSIDER SPORTS GROUP
Army vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan -4
Army had a terrible season last year, and we don't expect them to be any better this year. Just like last year, Army will have a poor pass attack and will "try" to run the ball most of the game. We don't see Army scoring much today.
Eastern Michigan will be at home and led by 5th year senior QB Andy Schmidt. Last season, Andy Schmidt led a solid air attack and we see that continuing this season as he has 3 veteran WR's to work with. We expect a solid performance from Andy Schmidt and the Eastern Michigan offense today.
Lay the points!
Take Eastern Michigan -4
VEGAS EXPERTS
Western Michigan at Michigan
The Wolverines were a disastrous 0-6 ATS as a favorite last year and should not be laying double-digit against anyone until further notice. Last year, they lost outright here at the "Big House" to a Toledo team that is nowhere near as good as this MAC representative, conference favorite Western Michigan. The Broncos beat Illinois last season and feature senior signal caller Tim Hiller, who will give the Maize and Blue fits.
Play on: Western Michigan
Michael Alexander
BYU vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -22.5
The BYU Cougars travel to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. BYU is coming off a good season last year that saw them go 10-3 SU. The Cougars over the years have not been afraid to take on some of the best in the country and they will find one of the best in Oklahoma today. BYU Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall has QB Max Hall back for senior season guiding an offense that led the MWC by converting 55.7 percent of their third-down plays. BYU also expects to have fullback Manase Tonga available after he missed last season because of academic issues.
The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off a season that saw when their sixth league title in seven appearances. Oklahoma had a powerful offense last season where they set a record by scoring 61 or more points in five consecutive games. This year they have last years Heisman winner Sam Bradford once again leading the attack. In addition to a potent offense the Sooners bring back 9 starters from a defensive unit that was a bit shaky at time giving up 343 points on the season.
Trends/Angles: OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons and OKLAHOMA is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The Sooners won't have tightend Gresham today but they bring in a offense that will score regardless. In addition, the Soooner have a couple of lineman that are almost twice the size of BYU's linemen. The Sooners wear down the Cougars and win this one easily.
Take Oklahoma
Matty B Sports
LSU vs. Washington U
Play: LSU -17½
LSU seems to be the forgotten team in the SEC heading into the 2009 season. Most opinions have the Tigers the 4th best team in the conference behind Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi. But I disagree, and think LSU will surprise a lot of people and be in the thick of things at season’s end. There’s no doubt that LSU was an overall big disappointment in 2008 with an 8-5 record after going an incredible 34-6 over the first three years of the Les Miles era. So after the sub par season, Miles revamped his coaching staff and made one of the best hires in all of college football. He nabbed former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis who is one of the best in the business. Chavis will make the Tigers a very formidable defense, and he’ll erase the memory of last year’s 27 points per game allowed; an unheard of number for LSU. Chavis is a great game planner, and his tricky schemes really confuse opponents. This LSU defense will be tough to score upon with Chavis now calling the shots.
LSU’s offense was a mess last year. They got terrible quarterback play after losing stud Ryan Perrilloux to off-field trouble in the spring. Miles was then forced to play an inexperienced redshirt freshman in Jarrett Lee and a castoff transfer from Harvard in Andrew Hatch. Both were downright awful with 17 interceptions combined to just 16 TD passes. So Miles had to turn things over to true freshman Jordan Jefferson after Lee and Hatch suffered injuries. And after getting his feet wet in the last two games, Jefferson blossomed in the Chick-fil-A bowl game. Reports out of camp say that Jefferson’s development has progressed, and Miles is extremely confident in him. The running game will be solid once again with Charles Scott back after rushing for 1,174 yards (# 5 in the country) and 18 touchdowns. The Tigers have a bevy of talent at the skill positions, and that talent will allow Jefferson to have a breakout year and lead LSU to big things.
Washington’s football program sunk deep under Tyrone Willingham. The Huskies went an abysmal 11-37 over his four years, and hit rock bottom in 2008 after going winless at 0-12. In desperation, Washington opened the check book and spent big bucks in hiring former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the overhauled coaching staff. Sarkisian comes in well regarded, but former Southern Cal coaches have not been successful after leaving the Trojans for whatever reason. Despite the 18 returning starters including dual threat quarterback Jake Locker, the Huskies are overmatched here in their home opener. LSU just lays over Washington talent wise, and Les Miles always has his team ready out of the gate. The Tigers have won their four season openers under Miles by a combined 166-47 for an average win margin of 30 points per game. Since Miles arrived in Baton Rouge in 2005, LSU has gone 12-4-1 against the spread vs. out of conference opponents. While Washington will be more competitive throughout 2009, they are simply out-classed here. Go with LSU.
Steve Merril
New Mexico vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -14.5
Mike Sherman's second season as head coach at Texas A&M begins at home as they host New Mexico. Last season the Aggies gave up 370 yards of offense at UNM, but still won 28-22. This year A&M will be facing a Lobo team without Rodney Ferguson and without a 1,000 yard rusher most likely for the first time in eight seasons. The Lobos return six starters and a good quarterback in Donovan Porterie, but he will not have many weapons as the team is going to a spread offense, no-huddle look with a higher tempo under new head coach Mike Locksley and New Mexico is not currently equipped for this style and doesn’t have the personnel for it right away. Defensively, they return only three starters and will struggle to stop an explosive A&M offense. The Aggies are a veteran team that returns 10 starters on offense and 6 on defense. Jerrod Johnson leads an offense that figures to put up points at will. Jeff Fuller is a 6’4” wideout who was a 2nd team freshman All-American. They also return all five starters on the offensive line, so the Aggies’ rushing attack should improve. Defensively, the team boasts depth in their front seven and has several options at all positions and they are led by linebacker Von Miller who had a strong spring. The Aggies struggled last season and will not overlook the opportunity to beat up on a rebuilding opponent tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -1.5 +100
The Nats have dropped 7 in a row and I'll fade them again tonight as they are up against Josh Johnson who is 4-0 lifetime (7-1 against the money line) against them with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.191. The Marlins are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Washington and I don't think they'll have any trouble winning by at least 2 runs here with Hernandez going for the Nats. The Nationals are 1-5 in Hernandez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Marlins on the run line.
Drew Gordon
Akron at PENN STATE -29
Lay the points, as the Lions romp and stomp the Zips Saturday afternoon. I know bettors are fond of mentioning the fact the Zips return 15 starters, incl. 9 on the offensive side, but let's get real... Beating this Penn State defense isn't going to happen, even if they're breaking in a new secondary and several spots along the d-line. Fact is, this Penn State stop unit has re-loaded nicely, with Jack Crawford (heralded as the next great defensive player out of Penn State) replacing Aaron Maybin, and DT Jared Odrick anchoring the line. And while a pass-happy team may be able to take advantage of a somewhat green crop of CBs, that will not be the case with the Zips.
Then there's the Penn State offense, led by QB Clark and RB Royster, which will have little trouble slicing its way through an average Zips defense. Note, many bettors are scared off by some question marks along the o-line and WR corps, but not this 'capper! I love WRs Moye and Powell to step up big, and let's not forget about senior TE Quarless, who can both catch and block. True, there's some shuffling along the o-line, but this Zips defense doesn't have the playmakers to expose the Lions new-look offensive line.
Finally, take a look at some of Akron's road efforts last season, and you tell me why you think they're capable of getting anything done at Beaver Stadium? We saw the Zips struggle at Wisconsin and at Temple last season, and quite frankly, this one is going to be MUCH uglier than either of those two contests. The disparity in talent levels (especially in a hostile environment) is too great to ignore in this contest, as Royster, Clark, and a re-loaded Nittany Lions squad decimate a VERY beatable Akron defense this afternoon at home.
Take Penn State over Akron in this college football match up.
2♦ PENN STATE
LT Profits
There has been some lively debate as to whether the SEC or the Big 12 is the best conference in the country, and those two conferences square off Saturday when the Georgia Bulldogs visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Personally, we feel that the SEC is head-and-shoulders the best conference in the land by a wide margin, but that does not mean that the Bulldogs will not have there hands full here in enemy territory vs. one of the top-tiered Big 12 teams.
Georgia certainly lost a couple of studs to the NFL in quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno, but they have a couple of nice replacements waiting in the wings in QB Joe Cox and RB Richard Samuel, and they return one of the best receivers in the country in A.J. Green. We feel that the Georgia offense will be just fine from the get-go, especially vs. a Cowboys squad that is not renowned for its defense.
Now Oklahoma State is scary offensively, but keep in mind that they are not use to going up against physical SEC defenses, as the Big 12 is more of a run-and-gun conference where defense is an afterthought. Still, this does not mean that the Cowboys will not put points on the board, especially in front of their home fans.
With both offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard, this game will come down to which defense will make the most stops, and we feel that the Georgia defense is better by a rather wide margin. Thus, look for the Bulldogs to at the very least take this game to the final gun, with an outright upset not unlikely.
Pick: Georgia +5.5
Mike Rose
Notre Dame -14.5
Nevada has a nice squad returning in 09, but theyre entering a hornets nest this afternoon. Weis knows his jobs on the line, and hes gonna have his men looking to put a hurting on their WAC counterpart. This line looks out of whack as well. When something looks too good to be true, it usually is.
While Nevada HC Aults pistol offense is highly entertaining, its gimmicky, and its going to have a tough time getting the job done against a pumped Notre Dame stop unit looking to improve upon last year decent numbers. As long as theyre able to limit the Wolfpacks ground attack, I like its chances of containing QB Kaepernick. Hey, Jimmy Clausen! Yeah, you! Impress me already!
The Irish have dropped three of their four season openers under Weis, and have gone 1-3 ATS during that stretch. Look for them to feed off their impressive bowl win, and dominate the Wolf Pack en route to the home win and cover.
Jimmy Moore
Baylor @ Wake Forest
Pick: Wake Forest -2
The Demon Deacons smashed Baylor last season in Texas 41-13 on the opening weekend of action. I know that Baylor has improved from their usual bad team but are they now good enough to be almost a pick'em on the road against a solid Wake team? I don't see it. Wake's offense returns 9 starters from last season including the QB and they have 2 paties up next so this game will get their full attention. Look for another beating for the Bears at the hands of Wake Forest today.
John Ryan
Akron vs. Penn State
Play: Akron +29.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Akron as they face Penn State set to start at Noon EST. There have been numerous changes made at Akron and the focus has been on improving the offense. They have a new HC, who was a former OC, and a new QB coach – also a former OC and HC. Akron QB Chris Jacquemain will certainly benefit most from the changes. The Akron offense has the definite potential to be one of the best in their conference and I fully expect them to be capable of moving the ball and scoring points against PSU. Akron's two WR were sidelined in the team scrimmage game, but they are vastly under rated WR. Watch Deryn Bowser and Andre Jones. Given that this is game that PSU will win, look for them to play a rather conservative zone defense. This will open up perhaps Akron's best offensive weapon in red shirt freshman TE Rhyne Landrach for release valve pass routes. They could also exploit the middle of the field with him in a zone scheme. The best part of this play from a fundamental standpoint is the fact that Akron is returning 4 of 5 of their offensive lineman. I cannot over state the importance of any team that is returning 4 or more OL. It is the team within the team and there is NO doubt that an experienced OL is immeasurably better than one that that is not experienced. Period. AiS shows a 71% probability that Akron will lose this game by 28 or fewer points. Take the Zips.
Tom Freese
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Texas is 26-9 their last 35 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 16-5 vs. AL East teams. The Rangers are 20-7 their last 27 games as favorites and they are 7-0 with Kevin Millwood on the mound against the Orioles. Baltimore is 31-69 their last 100 games vs. teams with a winning record and they are 0-7 their last 7 Saturday games. The Orioles are 7-16 their last 23 games vs. righty starters and they are 1-5 their last 6 home games with the Rangers. PLAY ON TEXAS w/Millwood