Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 6

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Milwaukee
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's loss and come into today's contest with a 4-1 record in Lance Lynn's last 5 starts in Milwaukee. St. Louis is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.105; Washington (Roark) 16.774
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.377; Cubs (Doubront) 15.210
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); N/A

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.229; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.711
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-175); Over

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 15.596; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.129
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Over

Game 959-960: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 13.162; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.887
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100); Under

Game 961-962: San Diego at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Wieland) 14.772; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.238
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under

Game 963-964: Arizona at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 14.319; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.887
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-230); Over

Game 965-966: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gausman) 15.614; Tampa Bay (Smyly) 14.289
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 967-968: Kansas City at NY Yankees (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 16.380; NY Yankees (McCarthy) 15.198
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Under

Game 969-970: Houston at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 14.311; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.897
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-200); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.312; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.988
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Over

Game 973-974: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 16.309; Boston (Buchholz) 14.870
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Rasmus) 16.311; Minnesota (Hughes) 14.784
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-105); Over

Game 977-978: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 15.399; Texas (Martinez) 13.903
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Over

Game 979-980: San Francisco at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.775; Detroit (Price) 15.320
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under

CFL

Calgary at Edmonton
The Stampeders head to Edmonton tonight and come into the contest with a 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games in Week 11 of the season. Calgary is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-2 1/2)

Game 495-496: Calgary at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 123.187; Edmonton 117.429
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Calgary by 2 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-2 1/2); Under

Bryan Leonard

East Carolina at South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -16

Pirates only return nine starters from a year ago and were untested in the opener against NC Central. After a 15 1/2 points per game improvement in 2013 from the prior year, we can see some regression in the works for Ruffin McNeill's crew. The last time McNeill brought back less than eight offensive starters the Pirates dropped by 12 1/2 offensive points per game. With the Gamecocks off an embarrassing national television performance we wouldn't expect East Carolina to light up the scoreboard.

South Carolina has permitted just 20.7 points per game over the past seven seasons. After allowing 52 points to Texas A&M in the opener you know the Ole Ball Coach will be stressing defense all week at practice. That 52 points was the most South Carolina has permitted to any opponent since 2010. With a huge game on deck vs Georgia, Spurrier needs to get out all the kinks this week vs East Carolina. The Gamecocks are 7-2-1 ATS the past two seasons vs non-conference opposition. Look for a big bounce back from the host with two extra days to prepare.

Harry Bondi

NAVY (-4) over Temple

The Midshipmen have been true “road warriors” the last 10 years, going 31-18 (63%) against the spread away from home. We think Navy could have one of its best teams in years, despite last week's loss to Ohio State in which they hung tough. Temple knocked off Vanderbilt in Week 1 as a 13-point dog, but we think that may have the Owls a bit overrated here. Look for the Navy triple-option to have plenty of success.

Sleepyj

Arizona St. -25

I'm going against the grain here with this one. I would make this a Premium but most will not like to lay this kinda wood....I agree..but this is solid.. Last weeks results may have helped just a bit. Let's look at both teams and figure out why we lay this many on the road. New Mexico just played at home and they were a -10 favorite at home. They lost outright to a UTEP team that is not that good. New Mexico is so one dimensional with the run it actually hurts this team very much. They had 5 completions last game out of 9 passes for 67 yards and 1 INT. They rely so heavily on the run. Now they can run, don't get me wrong..they ground up 400 yards on the ground and the QB was the horse in the running game. He ran so much he went out of the game with a injury after pulling up lame. He is out for this game. He ran for 184 yards !...and he is out. The backup QB now has to play and isn't the runner the starter is. They tried to run him 4 times..he gained -6 yards..he was 2 for 5 for 31 yards and had the INT. Where are they going without the running QB with a one dimensional offense. They just lost to a team at home they should have beat. Let's get into Arizona State. This team is ranked #19 and they are better than that. This offense will roll you quick, and if you get behind in the game good luck. QB Taylor Kelly is a beast...The starting offense sat out the entire second half after AZ St. took a 31-0 lead at half...They could have won the game by 40+ or even 50..That's how good this offense is..Now sure they get a road game here and a team off a loss..But they have no passing game or a QB that can run...That's what they rely on. AZ St...will do everything to stop the run. The defense for AZ St. is a little on the bad side but the first half against Weber State they shut them out. The word is they looked very good and fast. Even the CB's and FS looked good. That;s not very good news here for the Lobo's. AZ St racked up 570 yards in the game against Weber State. Most in the 1st half before the starters got rested. The AZ O-line will chew up this New Mexico D-Line and the speed of AZ St. is going to hurt the Lobo's..This game is not close..The line was bought down here from 27 to 25..That's some setup money coming in..Don't be to alarmed..This line is going up..Grab this now at -25...Sun Devils Roll 55-13.

Ray Monohan

Colorado State vs. Boise State
Play: Colorado State +10½

In case you didn’t know Colorado State is a sleeper in the MWC this season. The opened by beating rival Colorado on the road and now they have their annual tilt against Boise State, who did not look good in losing to Ole Miss.

The line on this is based on reputation but the Broncos are not going to be the Boise we all know and love this season while Saban disciple Jim McElwain has things going in Fort Collins. The beat the Buffs by dominating on the ground and that formula can work again to keep this one close and maybe even win it outright.

Brad Diamond

Navy vs. Temple
Play: Navy -3

The game opened Navy -4, at this writing -3 is the price. Navy went to Baltimore last week challenging nationally ranked Ohio State losing 34-17. The Middies lead (14-13) was diminished because of their non-existent passing game and ? pass defense. OSU wore down Navy in the second-half with the developing skills of QB Barrett who threw for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Middies are coming off a 9-4 season with 15 returning starters and 51 letters. Last year they finished with 5 straight wins against so-so competition after losing a heart breaker to Notre Dame 38-34 in South Bend. After a 2-10 season, Temple shows with 13 returning starters, including QB Walker who illustrated his skills after the Fordham game in 2013. Last week he shelled Vandy with a 22-34, 207 yard passing performance, including 2 touchdowns. We note, the game was delayed 2+ hours and it seemed to leave Vanderbilt, somewhat flat. The 37-7 final ballooned because of the 7 turnovers by the Commies. Temple has a solid coach in Matt Rhule who would love to win here in Philadelphia on Saturday. We note, in 2009 the Owls went into Annapolis winning SU 27-24 as a 7-point underdog. Last week the Middies faced a much more difficult opponent (Ohio State) vs. the Owls battle against Vanderbilt, who suffered the loss of key starters, no less the exit of a great coach Jimmy Franklin (Penn State). Remember vs. Temple, Vandy accrued only 54 yards on the ground; Navy specializes in running the football down your throat. Clearly, the Middies had a more physically challenging game last week, and they will illustrate its advantages in the fourth quarter here. Early weather projections for Saturday estimate 90+ degrees with rain throughout the day. If the early forecast holds true, the Middies will pick up an added edge with their style of play. Navy is 4-1 ATS in their second lined game of the season.

BIG AL

Oregon State at Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii

Last week, Oregon State won its game, 29-14, vs. Portland State, which was not surprising since Portland State has never defeated a Pac-12 opponent in 13 tries. Meanwhile, Hawaii also played a Pac-12 foe last week, and lost by a single point, 17-16, at home to 25th-ranked Washington. However, in Las Vegas, Hawaii was the winner, as it covered the spread, as a 17.5-point underdog, while Oregon State failed to cover the 32.5-point spread vs. Portland State. The line on this week's game opened up at Oregon State -12.5, but money has come in on the underdog, and the current line is -10.5 points. I still feel there's value taking the home dog, here. Even though Hawaii lost to Washington, it was very impressive in defeat. The Rainbow Warriors outgained the Huskies 424 yards to 336. Hawaii has covered its last six games vs. non-conference foes, and I look for the Rainbow Warriors to get the cash once again. Take Hawaii plus the points.

Brandon Watson

Northwestern -6.5

Like the Wildcats here. Faded them in the opening week of the season and now I'm jumping on them. The Wildcats have never lost to the Huskies. No more Jordan Lynch for Northern Illinois. I like the way Northwestern battled back after being down 24 points in the third quarter — they had a chance to tie the game late, but an interception ended that. Northwestern NEEDS a win here. They've been picked by many as one of the darkhorse teams in the Big Ten and a team that should play in a bowl game this season. After a disappointing open to the year, I like them to pick up a win here over the in-state Huskies.

Teddy Covers

Notre Dame / Michigan Over 55.5

The Wolverines offense averaged just shy of 30 points per game in three tires as an underdog down the stretch last November and Michigan covered the spread in all three contests. With experienced senior signal caller in Devin Gardner, there’s little reason to expect Michigan to struggle to move the football, even on the road in hostile environments.

Gardner was certainly dynamic in the Wolverines opener last weekend, although the level of competition wasn’t particularly high – Appalachian State in 2014 is a long, long way down from the App State team that upset the Wolverines in the Big House back in 2007. Michigan’s offense was nearly unstoppable in that contest, producing touchdowns on six of their first eight drives.

Reports out of Ann Arbor have made it clear that the Wolverines have no shortage of quality skill position talent surrounding their senior QB. Running backs De’Veon Smith and Derrick Green both ripped off 60+ yard touchdown scampers last week , while Devin Funchess caught three TD passes. And despite losing a pair of offensive line starters to the NFL draft this past offseason, the Wolverines continue to stockpile blue chip recruits on that OL; a unit that still looks strong.

But Notre Dame’s offense looked extremely impressive in their blowout over Rice last weekend, a tougher foe than the Wolverines faced. After punting on their first two drives, the Irish started to click, producing touchdowns or field goal tries on nine of their final ten possessions.

In particular, QB Everett Golson looked brilliant in his return to South Bend; the same QB who guided the Irish to the national championship game as a freshman two years ago. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly following the game in which his QB averaged more than 13 yards per pass ATTEMPT: “There's a lot of things that he will tell you that he's got to continue to improve on, but there's a confidence that he carries with him that is starting to emanate.”

Last year’s game was a 41-30 shootout won by the Wolverines; the fourth time in the last five meetings that the losing team has scored 24 or more. No surprise here if BOTH teams get into the 30’s again this year, sending this game flying Over the total.

Tony Stoffo

South Alabama vs. Kent
Play: South Alabama -3

Strong early money move on the Jaguars here as this game opened at pick'em against Kent and the sharps immediately pounded South Alabama here forcing the odds makers into moving this line all the way up to the magic number of 3. The Jaguars offensive front will dominate the Golden Flashes big time in this spot. Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Golden Flashes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Golden Flashes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. S-Belt. South Alabama the play here.

Joe Gavazzi

Northern Illinois vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern -7

Lowly Presby was the first victim of Northern Illinois this season. The 55-3 win, as 39 point chalk, saw the Huskies amass a 424-69 overland edge in racking up 635 yards. A +3 net TO margin sealed the deal. This is a somewhat greater challenge for a MAC team, who is playing for the first time in many years without proven signal callers in QB Harnish and QB Lynch. The tandem of QBs Hare and McIntosh will have a far greater challenge against a Big 10 defense. In this game, they will also miss the veteran experience of RB Stingily. Technicals point to the visitor, who has won 15 consecutive regular season road games and is on a spread streak of 10-2 ATS away. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are on a 3-5 SU, 1-8 ATS slide on their home field. A 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS record of 2013 has 17 Wildcat RS hungry for redemption. Week 1 results did little to cool that fervor. The 31-24 home field loss to Cal saw NW battle valiantly but just fall short in their comeback effort after trailing the Bears 31-7 in the 3rd quarter. Playing with need and the momentum of that late game comeback, look for the Wildcats to secure a double digit victory against a foe whom they will not take lightly.

EZWINNERS

Toledo +3.5

Toledo is breaking in a new quarterback, but the Rockets had a solid team last season and a lot of those pieces are back this year to help the new signal caller. Toledo looked good last week but many will say that they should have because they were playing New Hampshire. But what most people don't know is that New Hampshire is a quality team and one of the best in the FCS. Missouri is the defending SEC East champ, but they lost a lot of pieces from last years team and they were not impressive in their win last week against SDSU. Toledo lost by 15 points in last years meeting in Missouri, but the game stats were almost identical. The Rockets were the team with the negative turnover margin and that was the difference in the game. The "Glass Bowl" has been the home of many upsets in the past and this one has a chance to be added to that list. Take the points.

Temple +3.5

The Owls are coming off of a big road win against Vandy last week and I like them to keep it going here against the Middies. Navy might have one of their best teams that they have had in the last few years this season, but this could be a real flat spot after last weeks big game against Ohio State. The Middies put a lot into that game only to walk away with a 17 point loss that was much closer than the score would indicate. The Temple defense should have a good game plan on how to defend the Navy option attack. Last season the Owls defeated Army 33-14 and held the Cadets option that was third in the nation in rushing last season under their season average. Offensively the Owls are playing well with sophomore quarterback P.J. Walker looking comfortable under center. Temple has covered the spread nine out of their last ten games as an underdog. Take the points.

Western Kentucky +6

It doesn't appear that anything has changed in Champaign this year as the Illini struggled to put away Youngstown state last week needing a fourth quarter comeback to knock off the Penguins. Western Kentucky is a very formidable team that is making the jump to Conference USA this season. The Hilltoppers have a very athletic team that has speed. They showed that athleticism and speed last week in their big road win at Bowling Green. Their questions at quarterback seem to be answered for now as Senior Brandon Doughty set a Western Kentucky school record with 569 passing yards and six touchdowns in the win. Illinois is a team that just does not know how to win games right now and I don't think they should be favored against anyone. The Illini are just 3-18 straight up in their last twenty one games against FBC schools and they are being asked to win by a margin. Take the points.

Colorado State +10.5

This is the home opener for Boise State after losing last week in Atlanta against Ole Miss. The Broncos defense played pretty well, but they offensive side of the ball does not resemble anything like a Boise State offense of the recent past. The Broncos threw four interceptions and just did not look comfortable on offense for most of the game. Colorado State is coming off of a big come from behind win against in state rival Colorado. The Rams lost at home to there Bronco's last season by twelve points, but won the stat battle rolling up over 600 yards of total offense. This years Colorado State team looks to be much improved and has more team speed especially in the backfield with the additions of running backs Dee Hart and Treyous Jarrells. The blue turf of Boise used to be a money maker, but not anymore as the Broncos are just 5-13 in their last eighteen games as a home favorite. Take the points.

Hawaii +10.5

The Beavers struggled to put away Portland State last week in their opener despite five turnovers PSU. The Beaver offense is lacking a big time play maker and they are sorely missing wide receiver Brandon Cooks who is now with the Saints. I have to say I was impressed with Norm Chow's Warriors last week. Hawaii looked very solid and actually out gained Washington in their 17-16 loss to the Huskies as a seventeen point underdog. This week they get a shot at another PAC 12 opponent and I expect them to be in this game right to the end. Hawaii's running back Joey Iosefa rushed for 143 yards last week against the Huskies and he will be a key factor in this game as well to help the Warriors control the time of possession. The Beavers have struggled in the role of a road favorite going just 1-3 against the spread in this role their last four chances. Take the points with the home dog!

DAVE COKIN

ARKANSAS STATE AT TENNESSEE
PLAY: ARKANSAS STATE +17

No doubt about it, the 2014 campaign got started the right way for Tennessee. The Volunteers dominated a well regarded Utah State entry, winning every aspect of the game. QB Justin Worley showed no ill effects coming back from his thumb surgery, and following four straight losing seasons, there’s now loads of optimism once again in Volunteer country. This is a program with a great history and with as many talented newcomers as there are on this roster, it’s a program that appears to finally be back on the rise.

But that youth could be a bit of an issue this weekend. Coming off a nationally featured game win where everything came very easily, I feel as though the Vols could be in a bit of a bounce mode here. It’s not like Arkansas State is a big name opponent, and it’s also worth noting that a huge test at Oklahoma is next up for Tennessee. That makes this Saturday’s game a true sandwich spot. Considering that the Vols used 16 true freshmen in the first half last week, and a whopping 21 at some point in the Utah State romp, I can see this team being very vulnerable to coming in flat this game.

Arkansas State started slowly in its opener with Montana State, but eventually took control and dominated in the second half en route to a 37-10 win. The Red Wolves are not going to be intimidated by the surroundings. This is a pretty good program, in spite of what has been an almost annual coaching turnover. Arkansas State has won the last three Sun Belt titles and while they’re breaking in lots of new starters, they’ve got what some observers believe is their most talented roster yet.

Some good news on the injury front for the visitors, as two key components previously listed as questionable have been upgraded to probable. RB Michael Gordon and WR JD McKissic are now apparently good to go. But Tennessee has lost its starting left tackle as Jacob Gilliam was lost for the season last week. Gilliam was not by any means indispensable, but he was the only senior starter on that very young line.

I put this in the situational play category. I’m giving the big underdog an edge on the aforementioned scheduling dynamics. Plus, after burning backers last week that tried to beat them, and looking great in the process, my thoughts are that the home team is a bit overpriced here. Tennessee doesn’t figure to lose this game as they’re simply the more talented squad by a good margin. But under these conditions, I can see an under the radar Arkansas State entry being good enough to stay inside that big number, so I’m grabbing the points with the Red Wolves.

Ross Benjamin

BYU vs. Texas
Play: BYU +1

BYU began its season last Friday with a 35-10 win at Connecticut. Quarterback Taysom Hill was once again the catalyst for the Cougars as he had a hand in all 5 of the Cougars touchdowns. Hill threw for 302-years and 3 touchdowns, in addition to running for 97-yards and 2-scores.

Texas was an easy 38-7 home winner over North Texas in head coach Charlie Strong's debut. The Longhorns have a huge game on deck against highly rated UCLA. That game will be played at the Dallas Cowboys home Stadium in Arlington. It certainly raises a red flag in regards to this game being overlooked by the Longhorns. After all, they will be facing a much tougher opponent than they saw in their season opener. All they'll have to do is reflect back on last season's humiliating 40-21 road loss at the hands of BYU. The Longhorns will like be without starting quarterback David Ash who sustained a concussion in the season opener. In Ashe's absence, sophomore Tyrone Swoopes is expected to get the start.

Any away underdog of 8.5 or less that comes off a non-conference away favorite of 10.0 or more ATS win in which they covered by 16.0 or less, they're playing in games 2 through 7 of the season, and are facing an opponent that's playing with revenge, has gone 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The away underdog won all 8 of those games outright by an average of 11.8 points per contest.