Wunderdog
Ohio Bobcats @ Kentucky Wildcats
Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -12.5
The Kentucky Wildcats have gone 4-20 the last two seasons. Mark Stoops took over this program just about a year and a half ago, and you can already see the beginning of change with this Kentucky program. Stoops has recruited hard and strong with a top 20 recruiting class, and now has plenty of talent. You also have to remember that last year Miami, Ohio came here and provided the Wildcats with their only win against a FBS team in 41-7 whitewashing. QB Patrick Towles looks like he could be a tremendous upgrade, and while Kentucky will struggle in the SEC, they should add some early wins to grow some confidence and be more competitive. Ohio has gone to five straight bowl games, but they have lost almost the entire offense, including QB Tyler Tettleton. The Bobcats can defend, but where is the offense? They fumbled four times vs. Kent State in a 3-point win last week, but they may have to come from behind and throw the ball here against a very good pass-rushing Kentucky team. The Wildcats fit into a huge 92-28 ATS situation, and this should be a big home win for them. Take Kentucky.
MMA OddsBreaker
Michael Chiesa to win -130
This bout should be viewed as a "changing of the guard" of sorts. Joe Lauzon has been a staple of the UFC lightweight division for eight years now, but all the wars he's participated in are starting to catch up to him. Lauzon has taken a significant amount of damage in four of his last five fights, losing three of them.
Michael Chiesa is a younger, bigger version of Lauzon who has slightly better stand-up and superior wrestling skills. He should have the conditioning to hang with Lauzon and push a high pace, perhaps even wearing the veteran out. As long as Chiesa doesn't get too cute on the ground and leave a big submission opportunity open to Lauzon, he should be in a good place to win this fight either standing or from top position on the ground.
River City Sharps
Kansas St -12
Opening weekend was not a pleasant one for HC Paul Rhoads and the Iowa State Cyclones, who were gashed by FCS-level North Dakota State 34-14. The Kansas State Wildcats also opened their year with an FCS opponent, taking on Stephen F. Austin and winning 55-16. While K St HC Bill Snyder likes what his offense has looked like through practice and their first game, he openly criticized his defense and expects a much better effort this weekend. In Iowa State’s loss to North Dakota St., the Cyclones surrendered 506 yards of total offense to the Bison, including 302 yards rushing! To add more problems to the mix, Iowa State also lost star WR Quenton Bundrage to an ACL injury in that game and he will be out for the season. Snyder has thrived ATS as the HC of Kansas State, posting a 31-11 ATS mark against conference opponents, and he has also been pretty good on the road, posting a 16-7 ATS mark. The Cyclones haven’t been the greatest cover machine, highlighted by their 1-7 mark as a double digit dog. Last year, these teams played in Manhattan and Kansas St, as a 17-point favorite, shutout the Cyclones 45-0. We are big believers in not “overreacting” to Week 1 results, but in this spot, we are going to back the road favorite that appears to have everything in their favor. Snyder also takes every opportunity to score when they can and we think that helps the cause here on the road. This is going to be a long season for Rhoads and his Cyclones.
Stephen Nover
Colorado vs. UMass
Play: Colorado -17
Colorado has a young defense, a 2-31 road record since 2008 and is playing on the East Coast at an early start time. So why lay this many points with the Buffaloes?
Because they are playing Massachusetts! The Minutemen are atrocious, so bad they are being kicked out of the Mid-American Conference after next season.
Judging by how the Minutemen have fared the past couple of seasons since moving up to the FBC from the Colonia Athletic Association, the MAC is getting it right.
Massachusetts won one game two years ago. That was against Akron, which went 1-11 that season. Last year, the Minutemen won one game. That was versus Miami of Ohio, which went 0-12.
Massachusetts finished 120th in the nation last year on defense. Its offense could be even worse. The Minutemen scored the fewest points of any FBS team last year averaging 11.7 per game. They were held to 24 yards in the first half of their opening game last week, a 30-7 loss to Boston College.
Colorado, let's not forget, is a Pac-12 school with a decent offense. Boston College quarterback Tyler Murphy had his way with Massachusetts last week. Certainly Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau, who I like much better than Murphy, can produce big numbers, too.
Liufa was 24-for-39 for 241 yards and two touchdowns in Colorado's 31-17 opening week loss to Colorado State. Liufau averaged 10 yards per completion and the Buffaloes put up 22 first downs. The Buffaloes should be able to finish their drives against Massachusetts something they weren't able to fully accomplish against Colorado State. Junior wide receiver Nelson Spruce showed signs that he could adequately replace star wide receiver Paul Richardson, now with the Seahawks.
Colorado has a decent secondary, but is vulnerable on the ground. However, the Buffaloes hold a huge talent and size edge in this matchup. Massachusetts doesn't have the offense to take advantage of Colorado's defensive shortcomings.
The Minutemen are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Patrick Webb
Ball State +17½
This line has remained fairly static after opening at Iowa -17.5 points, I expect this line to move down and settle in around -16 for Iowa. I would take Ball State at +15 if it reached it.
Iowa doesn't yet have an offensive identity. They have the makings for a power run attack or a pass heavy spread offense. QB Jake Rudock was efficient if unspectacular last week in a win over FCS UNI completing 31 of 41 passes for 250 yards. Iowa took very few shots downfield versus UNI and Rudock was content to take the easy throw spreading it out to 13 different targets. Iowa has four options at running back and are going to have to figure out a better rotation amongst the players to not give away the style of offense they are running with each back in the game.
Ball State's defense was a solid MAC unit last season but they lost several key players along the front 7 and will be facing a huge size disadvantage versus Iowa's offensive line. BSU isn't going to be able to slow Iowa's rushing attack without committing additional resources versus the run. BSU does return several veteran members of their secondary but didn't force a turnover versus Colgate and their defensive numbers were more of a function of Ball State controlling the ball for much of the game.
Iowa's defense showed some troubling issues against the pass in the opener versus UNI- RB David Johnson compiled 203 yards on just 5 catches and Iowa's safeties and linebackers really struggled in pass coverage. Iowa effectively shut down UNI's rushing attack but gave up over 20 yards per completion. Iowa will again have an edge in the trenches in this game and Ball State is not going to match their 5.9 ypc versus Colgate. Ball State's QB Ozzie Mann doesn't yet have the same grasp of their offense that 4 year starter Kieth Wenning had, but he should be able to exploit the middle of the field versus Iowa's linebackers as they get accustomed to their roles in the defense. Iowa doesn't have a fearsome pass rush and Ball State should be able to move the ball in this game, but they will struggle to score TDs.
I look for Iowa to slowly strangle the life out of Ball State with a heavy reliance on the running game and few big plays. Ball State should be able to get a few scores but will have to settle for too many field goals instead of TDs to make this a nail-biter. Iowa only blows out opponents if they self-destruct and Pete Lembo teams rarely self-destruct.
Freddy Wills
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -12
I don't care if the Spartans defense ends up being nasty by the end of the year it's going to be a challenge early on the road. Defenses get better by practice and coaching and it's just hard to believe they will be up to snuff in this game. Oregon really has the advantage in the trenches which is rare to say when you go up against MIchigan State, but they have 5 experienced offensive linemen who are under rated going up against a rebuilt front 7 which features 5 new starters and they get to do it all at home. When you go back to look at the Spartans they actually were not that good in run defense when they faced rushing offenses that could run the ball so that's going to be a big key here. Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah ran for 123 yards on 5.6 ypc and Braxton MIller turned out 142 yards and 2 scores. The Spartans are not built to stop this type of offense in my opinion I see Oregon winning by double digits. Tough game for the Spartans this early in the season. Good coaching can only go so far early in the season. I still won't be shocked if this is their only loss all year
Matt Fargo
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Pick: Michigan State
The game of the day takes place from Eugene as Michigan St. travels to Oregon in a matchup of two top six teams. Both the Spartans and Ducks are coming off blowout wins over cupcake FCS teams last week so looking at those games to gauge anything is worthless. What we do know is that it matches up one of the best offenses in the nation against one of the best defenses. This is a case where I think the defense can prevail and I have the Spartans as a sleeper team to make a National Championship run. While Oregon is certainly one of the best teams in the country, it should not be laying this type of number against such a quality opponent. Preparing for the Ducks is never easy and teams that only get a week to do so are at a big disadvantage. While Michigan St. did in fact play last week, playing against Jacksonville St. doesn't count and the Spartans have been scheming for the Ducks since camp opened especially with a bye week on deck and then Eastern Michigan. In order to slow down the Ducks offense, opponents need to slow down themselves. Michigan St.'s smashmouth style of football is exactly what a team needs to upset the rhythm of Oregon, and you can just look at what Stanford has done in recent matchups with Oregon. In their matchup with the Spartans, the game will come down to discipline, something the Ducks didn't have against the Cardinal last season. Michigan St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after one or more consecutive straight up wins while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Additionally, the Spartans are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 road games after outgaining their opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. The Spartans have not been a double-digit underdog since 2009 and they should not be one here.
Tom Stryker
Georgia Tech vs. Tulane
Play: Tulane +10
Emotions will be running high at Tulane on Saturday afternoon. After playing most of their home games in the Superdome from 1975-2004 and from 2006-2013, the Green Wave will open up Yulman Stadium. Considering this will be TU's first game on campus since 1974, you can bet your last buck that both the fans and the players will be juiced for this baby.
Georgia Tech enters this non-conference affair off a less-than-impressive 38-19 home win over Wofford in its season opener. This isn't going to be the best technical spot for the Yellow Jackets either. According to my college football database, game two college football road favorites priced short at -11 or less are a weak 84-126-4 ATS provided they enter off the comforts of a home game. If our "play against" guest is battling outside of their conference this week, this system dips down to a nasty 55-103 ATS. With those two parameters working our "play on" home team off an ATS loss, this system slips to a jaw-dropping 8-29 ATS. That doesn't bode well for Tech.
In last week's loss to the Golden Hurricane, the Green Wave racked up 516 yards of total offense. TU redshirt freshman quarterback Tanner Lee completed 22-of-44 for 262 yards and three touchdowns and he played very well. With the electric crown inside Yulman Stadium for the first time ever, don't be surprised when Lee and the Wave give the Bees a game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/Virginia Tech Under 47: Hard to look anywhere but the Under in this game. Both teams have inexperience at the QB slot, both have strong running games and both have stout defenses. That tends to lead to low scoring games. Ohio State was gashed for 370 yards on the ground last week, so I really look for them to batten down the hatches on that side of the ball. This is a team that came in with perhaps the 2nd best defense in the Big 10 and I expect them to play like it here. Virginia Tech has a super quick and super stout front 7 and should be able to contain the Ohio State ground attack. This game will be more about running the ball, tough defense and field positions. Not allot of chances to be taken by either coach, especially knowing that they have such strong defenses to lean back on. This game should be played in the 30s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
NEW MEXICO +25 over Arizona State: I really like New Mexico in this one. The Sun Devils had a rather easy opening win vs Weber State, but I see this as a slight look-a-head spot for them, as they have their Pac-12 opener on deck next week. Also I expect the Sun Devils having a problem keeping the lobos from piling up the yards on the ground. Last week they rushed for 410 yards and that rushng offense will do two things for them in this game. 1st it will allow them to control the clock and limit the number of possessions that ASU will have and 2nd it will help them put up enough points to keep ASU from running away from this one. Bob Davie has done a nice job recruiting here and it has helped in their depth. The Lobos did lose at home last week to UTEP, but still I just don’t see ASU being able to run away with this game. I would say a 17 point win at best here.
Michael Alexander
Oregon State vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +10½
Oregon State was real impressive last week in their win over Portland State. Even with their QB Mannion passing for 328 yards. However. Hawaii continues to make games close as their last 4 games have been decided by OT, OT, 7, 1 point. Last week they actually outplayed Washington but they got hurt by a 91 yard touchdown pass.
Sean Higgs
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -11.5
Yeah, I will lay the number here. I had Sparty winning the Big 10 last year, and I picked them again this year even before Miller went down for Ohio State. Spartans have a great team. A top 5 team. The defense is excellent. They are 12-5-1 ATS last 5 years as dogs with 10 outright wins. That being said, I am a bit unimpressed. Looking over the last few years I see plenty of losses on the road to Notre Dame. ND isn't a Big 10 team. They aren't a rugged team like Wiscy or Michigan. Teams that start winning in the trenches. They have some speed guys. Now Michigan State goes to a place where speed is second only to breathing, maybe. Ducks love to hurry things up. I am not sure that Sparty will be able to hang here. I like QB Cook, but this is a tough assignment. The line has creeped up even with the public loving the points here. Oregon covers this one for us.
Cajun Sports
Missouri Tigers @ Toledo Rockets
Play: Toledo Rockets
This game qualifies in the same system that gave us a winner Thursday night with UTSA. The system is simple yet powerful cashing in eighteen of twenty-one qualifying situations for 86 percent winners covering by an average of eleven plus points per game. The system says In Game 2, play ON a college football home underdog of ten or fewer points coming off a non-lined game versus an opponent coming off a straight up win their last time out. The system has a record of 18-3 ats covering the spread by an average of 11.10 points per game. Let's take the Rockets plus the points over the Tigers.
Red Dog Sports
United States vs. Mexico
Play: Mexico +37.5
The USA faces Mexico in the knockout round on Saturday in an early game at a different location than their group stage games. The USA has won their last four games by 21, 27, 35 and 24. The USA will face the winner of Slovenia/Dom Republic next. Mexico was 2-3 in Group D and they lost by 13 to Lithuania, lost by 21 to Slovenia and by 8 to Australia. They beat Angola by 24 and South Korea by 16. They are led by Cruz, Ayon, Mendez, Hernandez and Martinez. They did lose badly to both Argentina and Croatia by 25 points in exhibitions in Spain. This could be the high scoring over that we have waited for but I like our chances with a motivated Mexico team facing their American neighbor. Hopefully, we don't see a 110-70 game where the underdogs lose by 40. Maybe they win by 30 to 35 and move on to the next round.
Marc Lawrence
Northern Illinois at Northwestern
Prediction: Northern Illinois
Edges - Huskies: 15-0 SU last fifteen games as a visitor, and 6-0 ATS non-conference road dogs of 6 or more points. Wildcats: 0-5 SUATS last five home games, and 0-5 ATS last five MAC games. With Northwestern riding a miserable 1-8 SUATS slide since it difficult to swallow loss to Ohio State here last season, we recommend a 1-unit play on Northern Illinois.
Scott Spreitzer
BYU vs. Texas
Play: BYU -1
BYU returns a handful of suspended players this week, including RB Jamaal Williams, who carried the ball 30 times for 182 yards in last season's 40-21 BYU win. While BYU fortifies the troops this week, Texas lost starting QB David Ash to another concussion (out indefinitely). Tyrone Swoopes will step in at QB. Swoopes saw limited action in 2013, completing just 5-of-13 passes. Ash was good, not great last week, but he was the best this Texas offense had as far as accuracy was concerned, not to mention his understanding of the Charlie Strong offense. Once again, I believe the Texas offense will be a little surprised by BYU's style of defensive play. Cougar QB Taysom Hill didn't do a lot with his arm in last year's meeting, but ran for 259 yards on 17 carries with 3 TDs. Hill is off to a great start, shredding UConn for 308 yards and 3 TDs, on 28-of-36 passing in last week's 35-10 win. Hill also gained 97 yards on 12 carries. I expect Hill to have little trouble with a Texas defense learning new schemes early in the season. Hill has dangerous targets and again, Williams is back in the offensive backfield to add another dimension to the Cougar attack. BYU is on a 4-0 ATS run against teams from the Big-12 conference, while the Longhorns are on a 4-11 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm recommending a play on BYU on Saturday.