Jimmy Boyd
Old Dominion vs. NC State
Play: Old Dominion +17
Old Dominion is showing great value as a 17-point road underdog against NC State on Saturday. The Wolfpack were extremely fortunate to escape their home opener with a 24-23 win over Georgia Southern. NC State trailed 10-20 going into the 4th quarter. I just don't see them bouncing back with a blowout win over a underrated Old Dominion team.
While Old Dominion has 17 starters back from a team that went 8-4 last year. While the majority of those games came against FCS opponents, they went on the road an only lost 38-52 at East Carolina and later visited Pittsburgh and only lost by a final of 24-35 to the Panthers.
The Monarchs have a high-powered offensive attack that returns 7 starters from a unit that put up 42.3 ppg on 519 yards of total offense, including talented senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who threw for over 4,000 yards with 33 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions in 2013.
I look for Old Dominion to have no problem moving the football against NC State. The Wolfpack gave up 438 yards of offense in their win over Georgia Southern, 246 of which came on the ground. I just don't see NC State being able to get the separation needed to cover a spread like this and I wouldn't be shocked if Old Dominion pulled off the upset after what I saw from the Wolfpack last week.
NC State is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of December, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Jack Jones
Troy +19
The Troy Trojans are coming off an embarrassing loss to UAB by a final of 10-48 in their opener. While I clearly was not impressed by that performance, neither was the betting public. However, that effort has created some massive line value on the Trojans this week as they take on Duke in their home opener Saturday.
Larry Blakeney has done a tremendous job at Troy in his 23 seasons here. I like the team he has to work with this year with 12 starters back. After all, this team only had seven starters back last year and managed to go 6-6. He finds some great talent, including transfers from bigger programs, and isn't afraid to play anyone in the country.
Admittedly, Blakeney and several players said they were not prepared for UAB last week. That's not very surprising because UAB has an entirely new coaching staff and almost everyone back from last year. They had no clue what kind of systems they were going to see, and they simply failed to make the adjustments in-game.
That won't be a problem this week against Duke, who they are very familiar with. Indeed, the Blue Devils beat the Trojans by a final of 38-31 at home last year as a 13.5-point favorite. Troy was only outgained 514-512 in a game that went right down to the wire. The Trojans had a TD called back late due to a penalty, or this game would have went into overtime. They will be looking for payback at home this time around.
Blakeney does not lose very often at home. In fact, the Trojans are 22-1 in home openers under Blakeney. He has posted a 98-19-1 home record in his 23 seasons here. Duke will be the fourth Power 5 conference school to visit Veterans Memorial Stadium. Missouri, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State are the other three, and the Trojans have gone 2-1 against those teams with their lone loss coming by six points to Mississippi State in 2012 as a 14-point underdog.
I am way down on Duke this year. The Blue Devils won 10 games and the ACC Coastal Division, getting a shot in the ACC Title Game against Florida State, where they lost 7-45. This team was nowhere near as good as their 10-4 record would indicate. In fact, they only outgained opponents 426-418 on the season. They won four games by a touchdown or less last season. Their defense is not very good, and that unit was exposed by the Trojans last year to the tune of 31 points and 512 total yards.
The Trojans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Troy is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven September games. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Look for this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder and easily stay within 19 points of Duke.
Jim Feist
BYU vs. Texas
Play: BYU -1
BYU is loaded on both sides of the ball and the team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big 12. They take on a Texas team that is dealing with a big problem as starting QB David Ash is out from a concussion. Texas sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes will make his first collegiate start. The Longhorns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These teams met last year and Texas got steamrolled 40-21 at BYU and the Cougars have another strong O-line and ground game.
Rob Vinciletti
Duke vs. Troy
Play: Duke -19
Duke is in a solid road warrior system here tonight that plays on certain favorites of more than 10 all the way to -21 that are in a non conference game if they averaged more than 30 points per game last season and are playing in the first 2 weeks of the season. This system has cashed around 80% the past few years. Duke has covered 9 of 10 as a favorite, 8 of 11 vs non conference teams, the last 6 vs teams under .500 and the last 4 on Turf. They bring back 8 starters on offense and should have no problem moving the ball on a Troy team that lost their 4 year starting Qb. Last week it showed as Troy was blown out 48-10 to a mediocre UAB Team. Troy has failed to cover 5 of the last 6 in back to back home games and has lost the last 6 times vs ACC Teams. Lay the points with Duke.
Tony George
Missouri -3.5
OVER REACTION form Public to a poor outing last week by Mizzou. Less than a year removed from the SEC East Title and SEC Championship game where the Tigers took Auburn to the wire, and then won a bowl game, apparently bettors have soured on Mizzou. Yeah Yeah, I know Toledo is suppose to contend for the MAC and their QB Ely is a transfer from Alabama. Lets put it this way, if Mizzou was in the MAC Conference they would win the title without breaking a sweat. They are still a good team with a stud and rising star QB and a great RB that no one knows of, and very well coached. Also to note, Gary Pinkel knows all about the Rockets home advantage in the Glass Bowl, he coached there before Mizzou!
Mizzou lost some to graduation but this is an SEC team versus a MAC school, and laying less than a TD in that scenario is a GIFT unless your are Vandy. Trap line here? I think not. Opened at 6 and dropped like a rock all week. Sharp money early - Touts giving it out since Monday...whatever...better team with a manageable number is all I see. Mizzou QB Matty Mauk from Ohio and will play well, and Head Coach Gary Pinkel used to coach at Toledo as well and will have his team ready for a win as he returns back to his old school. Mizzou too big up front and QB Mauk the real deal.
Joe D'Amico
Colorado State at Boise State
Pick: Colorado State
Boise State QB, Grant Hedrick tossed 4 INT's last week in the 35-13 loss at Mississippi. The Broncos are just 4-14 ATS their L18 overall, including a 2-10 ATS mark in Conference Play, and are currently riding a 4-game no-cover skid. Colorado State came from behind to beat Colorado, 31-17 last week to mark a 7-1 ATS record their L8 away from Fort Collins. When these two teams met last year, the Rams lost by 12 but statistically outgained the Bronco's, 626-437 and nearly came back to win after digging themselves a hole early. CSU is stronger this season on defense and their rebuilt OL manhandled Colorado a week ago. Boise's offense was stagnant in their opener. Even if they come alive at home here, Colorado State can go shot-for-shot with them. The Rams have a patient and talented QB in Garrett Grayson and have two ball-carriers that each tallied over 100 yards apiece over the Buffaloes. Boise State isn't the team they were just a few seasons ago and playing on the blue turf just doesn't intimidate opponents anymore. Colorado State has revenge on their mind here. The Bronco's are 7-15 ATS their L22 Conference games, 6-14 ATS their L20 games played at home, and 3-9 ATS their L12 vs. teams with a winning record. The Rams are 5-2 ATS their L9 Conference games, 7-1 ATS their L8 road games, and 4-0 ATS their L4 games played in September.
Kyle Hunter
San Diego State vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -15½
The North Carolina Tar Heels are a team I'm high on this year. Larry Fedora is doing a nice job with this program. Fedora is now getting to use players he has recruited, and that should help quite a bit in his unique system. San Diego State plays hard for Rocky Long, but the Aztecs lost a ton of talent from last year's team and they'll have a hard time competing with the much more talented Tar Heels. North Carolina's offense is explosive, while San Diego State often struggles to score against good teams. North Carolina hosts a night game here so the environment should be great. San Diego State has a lot of inexperienced guys in key positions. Look for the Tar Heels to come through with a win that covers this number. Take North Carolina.
Sean Higgs
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -11½
Yeah, I will lay the number here. I had Sparty winning the Big 10 last year, and I picked them again this year even before Miller went down for Ohio State. Spartans have a great team. A top 5 team. The defense is excellent. They are 12-5-1 ATS last 5 years as dogs with 10 outright wins. That being said, I am a bit unimpressed. Looking over the last few years I see plenty of losses on the road to Notre Dame. ND isn't a Big 10 team. They aren't a rugged team like Wiscy or Michigan. Teams that start winning in the trenches. They have some speed guys. Now Michigan State goes to a place where speed is second only to breathing, maybe. Ducks love to hurry things up. I am not sure that Sparty will be able to hang here. I like QB Cook, but this is a tough assignment. The line has creeped up even with the public loving the points here. Oregon covers this one for us.
Steve Janus
Kansas State vs. Iowa State
Play: Kansas State -11½
I know Iowa State's had some big wins at home, but that's when they had some talent to work with. This year's Cyclones team is not anywhere close to what they have fielded in past years. They were beat in their opener at home by North Dakota State 34-14 and that was after opening the game with a 14-0 lead. They were outgained in the contest 506 to 253, which is pathetic.
Not only did Iowa State get embarrassed by an FCS opponent, they lost their top returning receiver, Quenton Bundrage (9 TDs last year). They also had their starting right tackle leave the team during the week for personal reasons.
Kansas State only returned 11 starters, but few coaches in the country, if any, do a better job of going out and finding top notch junior college transfers than Bill Synder. Kansas State rolled in their opener 55-16 against Stephen F. Austin. This is a lot better team than they get credit for and once again we find them extremely undervalued against the spread. Kansas State has gone 29-10 over the last 3 seasons and during this stretch have gone 25-12-1 ATS.
The Wildcats simply have too much talent on offense and Iowa State has little to nothing to stop them on defense. The Cyclones returned just 5 starts from a defense that gave up 36.0 ppg and 463 ypg last year and lost their two top two leading tacklers, who were hands down their two best players on that side of the ball.
Kansas State beat Iowa State 41-7 last year. It might not be that bad with this one on the road, but I'm still expecting the Wildcats to win here by 20+ points.
Key Trends - Kansas State is 13-4 ATS over their last 17 conference games, 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining more than 450 yards of total offense.
System - A home team (IOWA ST) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 10-37 (21%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Will Rogers
Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -11½
The Ohio State Buckeyes have fallen out of favor since losing starting QB Braxton Miller, and turning in a less than convincing effort on the road versus Navy last week. I think people are giving up on the Buckeyes a little too quickly though, and I am confident J.T. Barrett will eventually be an effective QB.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. J.T. Barrett - The freshman made one mistake last week, and it led to an interception. Other than that, you'd have to say he had a pretty successful debut, completing 80% of his passes for 226 yards and a pair of TDs.
2. Home Cookin' - The Buckeyes have won 25 consecutive regular season games, and 64 straight at home versus non-conference (unranked) opponents.
3. X-Factor - The Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Jonathan Jorcin
BYU vs. Texas
Play: BYU -1
This game comes at not a good time considering that Texas just broke into the top 25, but junior quarterback David Ash came down with a concussion, and that means a new quarterback will take over. That will provide a stall and stagnant offense, and BYU has a good enough defense to capitalize on it. BYU gets back three defensive starters who were suspended for the opener so their defense will be better this week. They will start Sophomore Tyrone Swoopes for his first collegiate start.
While Texas gets a first start quarterback, BYU gets Taysom Hill who had a good performance last week and will continue his successful year. They took care of business last year against this Texas team, and with all the changes Charlie Strong has made, this team will get better, but not this year. They have 2 more offensive linemen suspended this week for rule breaks. This spread went from -3.5, to -1. Take BYU in a pretty much PK.
Jesse Schule
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -12½
All eyes are on Eugene this Saturday, as the Oregon Ducks host the mighty Michigan State Spartans. We'll see one of the nation's top offensive teams taking on one of the country's fiercest defenses. The home team is a double-digit favorite, but critics will say that Oregon is overrated, gaining too much hype from beating up on inferior opponents.
I couldn't disagree more, as the Pac-12 has the likes of USC, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona and Washington, all Top 25 teams over the last two seasons. Those who say that Oregon tends to struggle against quality opponents will need to explain why they won their last two bowl games by a combined 41 points against Texas and K-State. Last season they defeated UCLA by a whopping 28 points at home, and they also beat Tennessee by a score of 59-14.
Yes they have lost to Stanford two years in a row, and Michigan State defeated Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year. We need to remember that quarterback Marcus Mariota was injured in last year's 26-20 loss at Palo Alto, and the loss in 2012 came in overtime by a score of 17-14.
I am a fan of the Spartans, and those of you who follow my football futures will already know that I have them winning the Big-10 (+$400 placed before the injury to Braxton Miller), but I also have Mariota winning the Heisman. In his third year as the starter for the Ducks, I think he's going to put up massive numbers this year. He's off to a good start, with four TDs in the first half of last week's game.
There are few reasons why this week's game is going to be a lot tougher for the Spartans that last year's Rose Bowl. Connor Cook had the game of his life throwing for 332 yards and a pair of TDs, and he's going to be hard pressed to repeat that performance. Playing at Autzen Stadium is not going to be the same as a neutral site game in Pasadena, and the Spartans who lost six starters on defense will be hard pressed to contain Mariota.
Nick Parsons
Missouri vs. Toledo
Play: Missouri -3½
The 24th-ranked Missouri Tigers will face their first road test of the season on Saturday afternoon when they venture to The Glass Bowl for a non-conference bout with the Toledo Rockets.
Missouri opened up last weekend against FCS foe South Dakota State‚ getting a 38-18 victory for its 13th straight season-opening win under head coach Gary Pinkel. They will go on the road this week when they face the Toledo Rockets. Missouri coach Pinkel coached at Toledo from 1991 to 2000 amassing a 73-37-3 record. The Rockets also had an easy opening matchup beating New Hampshire 54-20.The teams met for the first time last season in Columbia‚ with Missouri coming away with a 38-23 win.
Missouri was just average on offense in its first game‚ racking up 393 yards‚ going only 3-of-11 on third down and owning less than 25 minutes of possession time. Quarterback Maty Mauk went 13-21 for 178 yards. He was still able throw three touchdowns without an interception. Two of those TD’s were to Darius White‚ his only two catches of the day. They did better running the ball, with Russell Hansbrough carrying the ball twenty times for 126 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Murphy did everything on the field. He had a combined 74 yards rushing and receiving 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
On the other side of the ball, the Tigers only allowed 18 points and 365 yards while forcing three h registered seven tackles and an interception‚
Toledo offense was excellent in their opener. They gained 666 yards in total offense an even more impressively they scored on all seven of their drives inside the red zone. Quarterback Phillip Ely getting his first start was 24 for 34 for 337 yards and four touchdowns. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 20 times and gained 136 yards and scored two touchdowns. He was helped by Damion Jones-Moore who had 70 yards on just 10 carries and a touchdown.
The rushing attack was on point as well. Kareem Hunt acted as the featured back and turned 20 carries into 136 yards and two scores. Damion Jones-Moore saw just seven touches but made the most of them with 70 yards and a score.
Missouri is just a more talented team and they should have no problem getting their offense to perform this week. Toledo will give them a game early but there is a reason Pinkel left Toledo for Missouri. TALENT TALENT TALENT and Talent will win this one.
Joe Gavazzi
Army +3.5
Buffalo was anything but impressive in their 38-28 victory over the glorified high school football team, known as Duquesne University. They allowed the Dukes 373 yards and those 28 points. After leading 21-0, the Bulls actually trailed the Dukes 28-24 in the 4th quarter. That effort is hardly an endorsement when forced to face the Army option attack against which they will have little clue! There are only 4 RS that made just 44% of the tackles last season for the Bulls. True enough that this is the first game of the season for Army. But with no film of the Cadets’ opener, it will be a tough read for the Buffalo defense.
Bruce Marshall
Braves at Marlins
Pick: Over
The Marlins kept the playoff pulse last night in an 11-3 thumping of the braves, with the offense finally coming to life when pounding out 18 hits. With Atlanta floundering, Miami can stick around a while longer in the playoff chase, though tonight might be a higher-scoring affair with Nathan Eovaldi (1-7 with a 4.96 ERA over his last 11 starts overall) on the mound for Miami.