Golden Retriever
Orioles at Rays
Pick: Under
Drew Smyly is not David Price, but could have even been better! In his last five outings, Smyly only allowed 14 hits and 5 runs in 36.1 innings, combined with a 30-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio for his new team. However, we are worried about the run support as they scored more than 5 runs just once in the last 14 games. The Rays shutout Orioles 3-0 yesterday, both sides didn't bring back anyone home in 16 of 17 frames. And this is a day game following a night game, we expect they keep cold hands.
Dr Bob
Kansas State (-12) 34 IOWA STATE 19
Iowa State’s home loss to FCS school North Dakota State isn’t that surprising given that NDSU has won the last 3 FCS Championships and last season was about 12 points better than an average FBS team. Actually, using last year’s stats would have predicted North Dakota State to win at Iowa State by 16 points, so a 20 point loss to the Bison is not that shocking (even though Iowa State was somehow favored in that game). Iowa State was certainly supposed to be better than last year’s below average team (3 points worse than average) and I had the Cyclones rated 1 point better than average, which is slightly better than ISU’s average rating (exactly average) over coach Paul Rhoads’ first 5 seasons. The defense still figured to be an issue but the offense had 10 returning starters and figured to be better. The team’s best offensive player, WR Quenton Bundrage was injured in the first quarter of last week’s game and is out for the season with an ACL tear, which is a big blow. A couple of other receivers, including projected starter D’Vario Montgomery, were suspended for the opener, which is part of the reason that quarterback Sam Richardson averaged just 3.8 yards per pass play against the Bison. The other reason is that Richardson isn’t really a great passer, as he was 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average last season and is now 0.6 yppp worse than average over his 3 year career. Rhoads could turn to sophomore Grant Rohach, but he was just as bad throwing the ball last season as Richardson was and has been worse running the ball, which is Richardson’s strength.
I still rate the Iowa State offense as a bit better than last season even after last week’s horrible display (253 yards at 4.4 yards per play) but the defense, which has gotten steadily worse the last few seasons, appears to be even worse after giving up 505 yards at 7.2 yppl last week. Iowa State’s issue last season was a horrible run defense that allowed 232 yards at 5.8 yards per rushing play and giving up 312 yards at 7.6 yprp last week is an indication that they may be even worse in that department this season. The Cyclones’ pass defense was a bit better than average last season and rates at about average this season. Giving up 6.7 yards per pass play to NDSU’s new quarterback on just 29 pass plays is not significantly different than what I had expected.
Kansas State also played below expectations last week, even though they won nearly covered as a 39 points favorite (won by 39, 55-16). The Wildcats’ offense, which averaged 6.4 yards per play last season against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, only managed 5.9 yppl against a Stephen F. Austin defense that was horrible even by FCS standards last season. Star WR Tyler Lockett caught a touchdown pass at the end of the Wildcats’ first drive but barely played the rest of the game. There was speculation that he could have been nursing a hamstring injury but it’s also possible that he’s in coach Bill Snyder’s doghouse. Regardless, I’m sure he’ll play plenty in the Big 12 opener against Iowa State. Without Lockett, who caught 81 passes and averaged 11.1 yards per pass intended for him last season, Wildcats’ quarterback Jake Waters was pretty mediocre (6.5 yards per pass play) against a horrible defense but I expect him to play closer to last year’s form. Waters averaged an impressive 8.3 yards per pass play in 2013 (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) but I don’t expect him to reach those lofty heights given how unlikely it is that he’ll average 15.5 yards per completion again this season. The Wildcats did average 13.7 ypc in Colin Klein’s final season at quarterback, in which he was 3rd in the Heisman voting, and a drop down to those levels would knock about a full yard per pass play off of last year’s performance. Kansas State also doesn’t figure to be as good running the ball this season without Daniel Sims, who played several series each game at quarterback and was a good runner (825 yards at 5.5 yards per run). Waters runs pretty well (523 yards at 4.8 yards per run since the start of last season) but the Wildcats are still looking for a #1 back to replace John Hubert, who ran for 1048 yard at 5.3 ypr last season. Kansas State ran for 260 yard at 5.4 yards per rushing play last week but that’s actually a bad effort considering the level of opposition, as they should have averaged well over 6 yards per run against SF Austin. Kansas State’s rushing attack should work well against Iowa State’s porous run defense and Waters should have pretty good success against a mediocre Cyclones’ secondary as long as Lockett plays the entire game at his normal level (he’s listed as probable). My model projects 437 yards at 6.4 yards per play for Kansas State in this game.
Iowa State’s sub-par attack is projected to gain just 317 yards at 4.7 yppl against what should be a better than average Kansas State defense and allowing just 4.9 yppl last week to SF Austin is actually a solid performance based on my ratings for SFA’s offense (even with a new quarterback). Overall my ratings favor Kansas State by 15 points and Iowa State’s loss last week sets them up in a negative 37-83 ATS situation this week. I’ll lean with Kansas State.
ALABAMA (-40) 45 Florida Atlantic 6
Florida Atlantic was steamrolled by Nebraska last week, losing 7-55 while getting outplayed from the line of scrimmage 200 yards at 3.3 yards per play to 784 yards at 8.6 yppl. Alabama once again had trouble defending spread pass attacks, as West Virginia threw for 340 yard at 7.1 yards per pass play against the Tide in last week’s 33-23 Bama victory. Alabama’s defense won’t have any defensive issues in this game and criticism over last week’s defensive effort may spur the players and Nick Saban to want to pitch a shutout here. My model favors Alabama by 42 points but Alabama usually let’s up against really bad teams, which is evident in their recent 2-8 ATS record when favored by 30 points or more.
#14 USC vs #13 Stanford (-2.5)
OREGON (-13 ½) 37 Michigan State 23
What a great match up this is. It’s strength against strength as Michigan State’s dominating defense faces Oregon’s potent offense. The first thing that popped into my head when I saw this game on the schedule is that Oregon is facing a team just like Stanford, who they’ve had trouble scoring against and beating the last two years. Stanford’s defense has held Oregon’s attack to an average of just 17 points the last two years and Michigan State’s defense actually has been better than Stanford’s D each season. Having worse than expected offensive production in 2 games against Stanford the last two seasons could be nothing more than variance at work but in this case it is something to consider, as the Ducks have had other instances where their attack was kept in check by good defensive teams (15 points at Cal and 19 points against Auburn in the BCS Championship in 2010, 27 points against LSU in 2011). They also scored 53 points against Stanford at home in 2011 and have played well against other good defensive teams in recent years. However, against elite defensive teams the Ducks have had a tendency to play below expectations and that could happen again today. My model projects Oregon to gain 444 yards at 6.4 yards per play, so the Ducks do have that advantage with their offense even against Michigan State’s top rated defense.
However, Michigan State’s offense is projected to be improved this week and Oregon’s defense isn’t likely to be as good as it’s been with just 5 returning starters and the retirement of long time defensive coordinator Nick Alliotti. Alliotti’s retirement may be a bigger factor than most people think and the Ducks’ first game without Alliotti leading the defense was a bit lackluster. Oregon games up 5.1 yards per play last week to South Dakota and it wasn’t due to playing backups in the second half (South Dakota move the ball better in the first half). It’s just one game and perhaps the Ducks weren’t properly motivated but giving up 5.4 yards per rushing play last week is a concern. My team ratings would favor Oregon by 13 points but my model only favors the Ducks by 10 points since Michigan State’s slow pace will limit the amount of possessions that Oregon has on offense. While my model leans with Michigan State I’m not going to side against Oregon given a very good 110-41 ATS situation that applies to the Ducks this week. I’ll pass on this game.
East Carolina at SOUTH CAROLINA
NOTRE DAME (-3 ½) 30 Michigan 26
The underdog is 21-5 ATS in this series since 1982 but the dog play doesn’t work as well when the home team has revenge (just 5-4 ATS) and Notre Dame applies to a 60-16 ATS early season home revenge situation and a 72-23-1 ATS game 2 situation. I’d be more interested in backing Notre Dame if my ratings favored that side but that is not the case. My ratings favor Notre Dame by just 2 points in this game and both teams played equally better than expected in their opening game blowout wins. Michigan destroyed Appalachian State 52-14 while Notre Dame took care of Rice with ease in a 48-17 decision. Both offensive units were extremely potent, as the Wolverines gained 560 yards at 10.2 yards per play while the Irish tallied 576 yards at 9.0 yppl. My ratings give Notre Dame a slight edge offensively but Michigan is rated as a much better defensive team and played better defensively last week (4.1 yppl allowed to Appalachian State offense that would average 5.1 yppl against on the road against an average defense) than Notre Dame did in giving up 5.7 yppl to Rice - although their starting defense allowed just 4.9 yppl to a Rice team that would average 4.7 yppl on the road against an average team. I think Notre Dame’s defense is overrated and last week’s results was more evidence of that. The overall rating of the Irish went up 2.6 points based on last week’s game but Michigan’s rating went up 3.1 points. My updated ratings favor Notre Dame by just 2 points but the situation is strongly in favor of the Irish. I’ll pass on this game but I’d lean with Notre Dame if the line goes down to 3 points.
San Diego St. at NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO STATE (-12) 29 Virginia Tech 20
Virginia Tech would have been an elite team in recent years if they had had a quarterback better than Logan Thomas. Now they do. The Hokies’ attack looked very good last week with Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer at quarterback. Brewer completed 23 of 30 passes for 251 yards in a 34-9 win over William & Mary. William & Mary had a very good defense last season, even by FBS standards, as the Tribe allowed just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average FBS defense. The coaching staff has left and I expected William & Mary to fall off defensively this season even with 8 returning starters, but the Tribe are still a solid defensive team so Virginia Tech’s 6.7 yards per play should be taken notice of. The Hokies once again have an elite defense and that unit matches up pretty evenly with Ohio State’s offense, which is also very good even without Braxton Miller. New quarterback J.T. Barrett completed 12 of 15 passes for 226 yards and is certainly a better passer than Miller was – although the rushing attack managed a modest 5.4 yards per rushing play without Miller’s special running ability. I actually rate Virginia Tech’s performance last week higher than I rate Ohio State’s 34-17 over Navy but my preseason ratings had Ohio State by 11 points in this match up. My updated ratings favor the Buckeyes by only 9 points and I think Virginia Tech may be underrated now that they’ve found a quarterback. I’m not eager to go against Ohio State coach Urban Meyer in non-conference games (he’s now 40-12 ATS in non-conference games in his career) but Virginia Tech has a long history of playing well on the road against winning teams. In fact, the Hokies are 49-20-1 ATS under Frank Beamer when visiting a winning team and not laying more than 7 points, including 2 straight up wins as underdogs last season. I’ll lean with Virginia Tech plus the points.
Dave Essler
Georgia Tech / Tulane Over 55.5
I do wish I'd bet this sooner, but sh*t happens. Tulane let what I call a very marginal Tulsa offense put up 592 yards of total offense, and a ton of it through the air. Tulane put up a balanced 516 yards on what I call a pretty good Tulsa defense, and converted on HALF of their third downs (on the road). They also allowed Tulsa to convert 9-19 on third downs. Bottom line is there were a ton of VERY long scoring plays. G-Tech didn't wake up til the second half against Wofford (yes, Wofford) but when they did the REALLY did. They actually attempted 16 passes (a lot for them) and completed 11 for almost 18 yards per pass. They let Wofford have a 90 yard run from scrimmage, and run for almost 300 yards total. Tech has Georgia Southern next week (very interesting game) so no real ACC look-ahead at all. Green Wave's first home game, and home next week to SE Louisiana, so focus should be on THIS game. Tulane opens a new stadium today after playing almost 40 years in the Superdome, and back on campus they should have a ton of support, at least today. These teams haven't played each other recently (or if at all) so preparing isn't going to be easy. The weather could see some thunderstorms, but not a ton of wind. IMO that could effect things, but turnovers deep in your own territory lead to more points. Of course we can't predict when and where they happen, but the point is I am far less concerned about water than wind. Both teams will often eschew the FG on fourth down, which could also lead to touchdowns, not field goals. There you have it, or at least most of it.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Ohio State/ Virginia Tech Under 47: Hard to look anywhere but the Under in this game. Both teams have inexperience at the QB slot, both have strong running games and both have stout defenses. That tends to lead to low scoring games. Ohio State was gashed for 370 yards on the ground last week, so I really look for them to batten down the hatches on that side of the ball. This is a team that came in with perhaps the 2nd best defense in the Big 10 and I expect them to play like it here. Virginia Tech has a super quick and super stout front 7 and should be able to contain the Ohio State ground attack. This game will be more about running the ball, tough defense and field positions. Not allot of chances to be taken by either coach, especially knowing that they have such strong defenses to lean back on. This game should be played in the 30s at best.
Kentucky -13.5 over Ohio: Watch out for the Kentucky Wildcats this year. They are in the 2nd year of Mark Stoops system and he has done a very good job recruiting in his time here. They have 15 starters back and just put up 656 yards and 59 points on UT-Martin. The Cats have gone 6-0 SU & ATS in their last 6 meetings with MAC teams. Two years ago the Cats went just 2-10 on the season, while Kent State went 11-3 that year still the Cats beat the Golden Flashes by 33 points that year and this year’s version of Kentucky football is much better. Ohio escaped with a 17-14 win over rival Kent State last week, as 4 TOs by the Bobcats kept the Golden Flashes in the game. Kentucky forced 5 TO’s in their opener vs UT- Martin and could force a few more here. The Cats have outscored MAC foes by 18 ppg in the last 6 meetings should win by at least that much here as well.
Stanford/ USC Under 54: USC is now a high powered uptempo offense, but Stanford knows how to combat that as they have done it very well vs Oregon the last 2 years. This Stanford defense is very stout and on offense they will really take the air out of the ball as they have done vs Oregon the last 2 years. USC is not all about offense either as they come in with what has been rated as the best defense in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the nation. Stanford will really look to pound the ball at USC and try and wear the Trojans down late in the game and that kind of ball control offense will also keep the ball out of the USC offense. That offense ran 103 plays last week, but I don't see them coming close to that in this one as they just won't have as many opportunities as they had last week vs a Fresno State team that also runs uptempo. The last two years these teams put up just 35 and 37 points, while Stanford's last two meeting vs a similar offense in Oregon the games put up just 46 and 31 points. This game should be a defensive battle for the most part and should be kept in the low 40s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
NEW MEXICO +25 over Arizona State: I really like New Mexico in this one. The Sun Devils had a rather easy opening win vs Weber State, but I see this as a slight look-a-head spot for them, as they have their Pac-12 opener on deck next week. Also I expect the Sun Devils having a problem keeping the lobos from piling up the yards on the ground. Last week they rushed for 410 yards and that rushing offense will do two things for them in this game. 1st it will allow them to control the clock and limit the number of possessions that ASU will have and 2nd it will help them put up enough points to keep ASU from running away from this one. Bob Davie has done a nice job recruiting here and it has helped in their depth. The Lobos did lose at home last week to UTEP, but still I just don’t see ASU being able to run away with this game. I would say a 17 point win at best here.
Oklahoma/ Tulsa Over 57.5: Both teams play at an uptempo pace and that should mean plenty of scoring chances for both teams. The Sooners put up 48 points on Louisiana Tech last week and should have similar success vs a Tulsa defense that allowed 33.9 ppg last year and started out this year by allowing a rather pedestrian Tulane squad 515 yards of total offense. The Tulsa offense looked good last week and while this will be a much tougher defense that they will face, they should be able to put up 17+ points in this one. Oklahoma has scored 45, 47 and 51 points in the last 3 meetings and I expect at least 45 from them here, while the Golden Hurricane should hit the 17 point mark. I look for at least 62 points in this one.
Chip Chirimbes
Missouri vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo +4
How can this be? Central Michigan barely ekes out a 20-16 win over powerful Chattanooga (really) and now they go to the Big Ten road. How little does Vegas think of Purdue that they open only a 3-point favorite here. It's going to be a long season for Boilermakers.
Harry Bondi
GEORGIA TECH (-10) over Tulane
Yes, we realize Tulane will be playing its first game in the new on-campus stadium, which will lead to plenty of pregame excitement. But this is a really bad spot for the Green Wave. First off, they come in off a devastating season-opening overtime loss to conference foe Tulsa. In that game, Tulane led 28-20 with three minutes to play, but gave up a TD and two-point conversion and then missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, before losing in double OT. Now, they have to get back off the mat and face a Georgia Tech triple-option offense that they are completely unfamiliar with. The Tulane defense got carved up for 592 total yards last week and this Yellow Jacket offense is much more talented and complex than what Tulsa brings to the table. The home crowd is stifled early on as the Yellow Jackets run all over the Green Wave defense.
SPORTS WAGERS
HAWAII +9½ over Oregon State
A team that is notorious for being extremely stubborn at home, Hawaii is once again taking back some significant weight on the Island. The Warriors were held in similar contempt when they hosted fellow Pac-12 rival, Washington last week but managed to give the Huskies a game. That’s a bit of an understatement too, as Washington would escape from Aloha Stadium by the hair of their skinny-skin-skin, 17-16. The Huskies were supposed to be an offensive power and score 40-50 points in that game (total was 63) but the Warriors actually outgained them by close to 100 yards in total offense. In fact, Hawaii was supreme in every notable statistical category: third down conversion %, fourth down conversion % and turnover margin. Hawaii should have won that game but what they did do was knock Washington out of both polls and proved to itself that they can compete with prolific talent from the neighboring Pacific Coast.
As a 32½-point favorite last week at home, the Beavers trailed Portland State 14-13 at the half before rallying for 16 unanswered in the second half. OSU was tagged for 13 penalties last week. They had trouble finding the end zone against an FCS opponent and had to settle for seven FG’s. The Beavers are very capable of putting up points but they are also very capable of turning the ball over and making the kind of mental mistakes that set a team back every week. OSU’s defense is still weak and with games upcoming against San Diego State and USC respectively, these kids may treat this one to the mainland as a vacation and not one of importance.
UTEP +21 over Texas Tech
Despite being a 33½-point favorite, Texas Tech struggled to put away Central Arkansas in Week 1. The Red Raiders did not take the lead in that game until late in the second quarter Tech would prevail but not before surrendering 35 points to an FCS team and additional 406 yards of offense. Even more astonishing, Texas Tech gave up the yardage in balanced fashion, surrendering 228 through the air and 178 on the ground. Bad habits are tough to break and Tech showed up in Week 1 as a lazy, unorganized group with an alarming lack of fundamentals, especially on defense. That was in front of its own fans and we doubt it’s all going to get fixed in one week.
Tech now travels to El Paso to face a Miners team that compiled 446 yards of their own against New Mexico in their opening game, 31-24 victory. Winning instills confidence and the Miners figure to be even better this week in their own barn. UTEP has a workhorse running back in Aaron Davis, who trampled the Lobos for 237 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. UTEP can utilize him in similar fashion to neutralize the air raid style of Texas Tech's offense. This game sets up nicely for a physical UTEP squad, with the Miners coming home off a nice road win to play a big brother-type rival in front of a rowdy late-night crowd.
TEMPLE +3 over Navy
One would imagine that the Owls would gain some respect after their 37-7 thumping on the road in Vanderbilt in Week 1. However, despite the prestige that comes with defeating an SEC opponent in out of conference contests, the Owls are still viewed as a weak AAC team. Now the 1-0 Owls will host the Midshipmen of the U.S Naval Academy in a complex yet intriguing match-up of two distinct and different styles of play. Navy enters on a 17-point loss to then #5 Ohio State, where the Midshipmen saw the game slip through their hands in the second half against a shaky Buckeyes team. Navy led 7-6 at the half and hung tough as a 14-point pooch in a game that was televised to a large audience. That exposure against a high-ranked team from a power conference has caused an overreaction here on Navy. That was a physical game that had to take a bit of a toll on the Midshipmen. It was also an emotional Week 1 matchup that the Academy was completely jacked up for. A letdown here in a much less enthusiastic setting would be of no surprise.
The Owls held Vandy to just 54 yards on the ground and that bodes well here against a Navy team that runs left, runs right and runs up the middle. In other words, Navy is a one-dimensional offense that might pass five times or less the entire game. The Owls stock is still low after the team won just two times in 2013. Temple’s win over the Commodores last week was considered to be more of Vandy’s undoing than Temple’s strong game. Owls QB P.J. Walker stepped in for Temple last year in Week 6 but by that time the Owls were in a serious hole, which allowed Walker to fly far under the radar for the remainder of the season. All Walker did was throw for over 2000 yards and 20 TD’s and in the process he kept the Owls in most games. Walker is also a dual-threat, as he rushed for 322 yards and three more TD’s. The Owls possess a solid running game and a solid passing game. Their defense held the Commodores in check the entire game and forced numerous turnovers as well. Temple is a program on the rise and we don’t see a step backwards here in a favorable spot in a game they certainly can win outright.
Nelly
Memphis + over UCLA
The Bruins will open the season with as much national fanfare as they have had in over a decade but this could be a tricky game on the schedule. The Bruins had to play across the country at Virginia last week and next on the schedule is a huge national game with Texas in Arlington. UCLA struggled offensively last week only to get bailed out by Virginia mistakes with three defensive touchdowns. Memphis was just 3-9 last season but it was a very competitive team that returns much of the roster from 2013. Memphis only lost twice by more than 14 points last season and both of those defeats came at the end of the season after the goals of the season were dashed and with the team banged up. Memphis played UCF, Houston, and Louisville very tough last season and the Tigers will be a formidable underdog. The Tigers won 63-0 last week vs. FCS Austin Peay, holding them to just 146 yards as Memphis should have a better defense than the Virginia team that held the Bruins in check last week. The UCLA offense only scored one touchdown last week while rushing for just 3.0 yards per carry and now losing one of their key running backs to injury. UCLA's longest drive was just 66 yards last week and if not for three defensive touchdowns the lofty season goals for UCLA would already be up in smoke. Memphis will be a greatly improved team that will compete well in the AAC this season and the Tigers did not allow more than 34 points in any of their first 10 games last season. UCLA will likely need far more than that to cover this spread.
Jonathan Young
Atlanta Braves – 114
The Atlanta Braves are currently one game back of the Brewers for 2nd spot in the NL wildcard race. After losing to the Marlins on Friday night, the Braves will be determined to win this mini 3 games series 2-1 with wins today and Sunday. Atlanta has their best two starters going over the weekend in Alex Wood and Julio Teheran.
Braves lefty Alex Wood gets the nod tonight and he has been very consistent this season. He is 7-9 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 20 starts. Wood has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starts and opposing teams hit just .190 against Wood in the month of August. The Braves are in a ‘Must-Win’ situation for the remainder of the season and will be looking at closing the 7 game gap between themselves and the Washington Nationals for 1st place in the NL East.
Miami sends Nathan Eovaldi to the mound tonight and the righty has struggled in 15 starts in South Beach in 2014. He is 3-5 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in those starts at Marlins Park. Eovaldi has allowed 11 ER over his last 15 IP with opponents hitting well over .300 against him since mid-August.
DAVE COKIN
SAN DIEGO PADRES AT COLORADO ROCKIES
PLAY: COLORADO ROCKIES -152 &-1.5 +145
I don’t play many big favorites in baseball. By and large, I get priced off heavy chalk and my general threshold is roughly -140. The preference here is small favorites and underdogs.
But I am not going to simply dismiss all big chalk if the numbers dictate a play, as is the case here. In instances such as this, I like to split my play between the money line and the runs line. In effect, I’m creating a -1 line.
That’s the formula here, as Jorge De La Rosa is on the mound for the Rockies. De La Rosa at Coors might well be the single best bet in baseball. The Colorado team record when the southpaw starts at home is insane. I don’t know if there’s a way to overstate how incredible this team is when De La Rosa is on the mound, as they’ve now won an incredible 46 of his last 55 Coors starts. No wonder the Rockies just spent a bundle to lock up De La Rosa for another two seasons rather than let him head to free agency. De La Rosa might be the only pitcher ever who admits that he absolutely loves to pitch at Coors. Based on that record, he’s not exaggerating.
Another plus here is that we have a first-time Coors starter in Joe Weiland. The Padres righty got a handful of starts back in 2012 prior to his getting injured, but none were in this ballpark. Fading pitchers making their Coors debuts has been a profitable venture and with De La Rosa the opponent for Weiland, the trend should be maintained today.
My strategy here is to split the bet between the money line and the runs line. Obviously, that’s no good if the Rockies lose the game and if they win by one run, it works out to a push. But with San Diego also not hitting at all lately, scoring three or fewer runs in what is now nine straight games, I see the ML/RL combo on the Rockies as the best way to play.
Alex Smith Sports
South Alabama at Kent State
Pick: South Alabama
This is a rematch from last season, where the Jaguars dispatched the Golden Flashes at home 38-21. While Kent State has revenge on their minds as they host South Alabama, this team has dealt with some emotional off-field issues. Center Jason Bitsko passed away suddenly less than a month ago. The team wears his #54 on their helmets and was unveiled on the field in a pre-game ceremony last Saturday, in their 17-14 loss to Ohio. The Flashes were gifted on the field with 4 Bobcat turnovers and still could only muster 2 TDs in the game, as Ohio outrushed Kent St 175-31. South Alabama will look to use their speed to dominate this banged up Golden Flash club as this is their season opener before Mississippi State rolls into Mobile in their first ever game hosting a Power 5 Conference Opponent. While some could see that as cause for an overlook, this Jaguar squad is simply a better team in my opinion. I'll lay the points with South Alabama.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON +3 over Calgary
Five days ago in Calgary, the Stampeders were a 4½-point favorite over Edmonton and walloped them by a score of 28-13. The question now is if the Stamps were -4½ at home, how can they be a similar number on the road against the same team? Either last week’s line was too low or this week’s line is too high. We’re going with the latter because the number this week is an overreaction to the Stamps 15-point victory on Monday. Remember, odds makers set the Stampeders as a -4½ point favorite against an Edmonton team without its starting QB. Backup starter Mike Nichols didn’t play at all in 2013 and last started in 2012. This week Mike Reilly is back but the line does not reflect that. Let’s assume for a minute that Reilly played last week and the Eskies hung in and lost by a TD. They would be a 3-point favorite here, not a 3-point dog. The point is, way too much emphasis is being put on Edmonton’s loss and or performance last week and we can take advantage of that with this favorable number. Mike Reilly is perhaps the CFL’s best QB while Mike Nichols was less known than Ottawa’s third string QB before last week.
Besides, we’re not as sold on Calgary as the rest of the market is. Everything has fallen Calgary’s way. They’ve played Ottawa twice, Hamilton twice and Toronto and Montreal once each. That’s six of their nine games against some disorganized and banged up East teams at the time they faced Calgary. Montreal played in Calgary in the first game of the year when Troy Smith was QB. Smith may never play another down of football in the CFL. When Calgary faced Hamilton, Jeremiah Masoli was the starting QB the first time around while Dan LeFevour was the starter in the second meeting. Neither one of those two guys is Hamilton’s current starting QB. Incidentally, Calgary beat Hamilton 10-7 in the first meeting and 30-20 in the second meeting. The Stamps have defeated Edmonton twice this year, last week’s aforementioned game without Mike Reilly and previously in Edmonton by a score of 26-22. In that 26-22 victory over Edmonton in Edmonton, Calgary had 13 first downs the entire game and four of those came on penalties. The Eskies turned the ball over three times while Calgary did not turn it over at all. The Stamps four-point win in Edmonton was one of the most misleading scores of the year, as Calgary probably should have lost by 3 TD’s, that’s how badly they were outplayed. We see Edmonton as the superior team getting points at home. It’s extremely difficult to beat slightly inferior teams three times in succession in the same year and now Calgary is asked to do that by a margin on the road against a team that statistically is better than they are. Huge value on the Eskies today and it would not be a poor wager to play them outright either.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +115 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks have three wins over their last eight games. Two of those victories came against the Red Sox when the Yankees scored two in the ninth to win the last one. Prior to getting shutout by James Shields last night, New York had faced starters Brandon Workman, Anthony Ranaudo, Joe Kelly, J.A. Happ, Drew Hutchsion, Mark Buehrle, and Kyle Lobstein in its previous seven games and batted .218 against that unimposing group of starters. The Yankees are weak, they’re fading and they are a huge risk as the chalk against the heating up again Royals. Brandon McCarthy has been solid for the Yankees since coming over from Arizona but the Yanks offense is so bad that they have dropped four of McCarthy’s last five starts. If McCarthy is very good today, the Yanks can still lose and if he’s not, they will lose. This one is not about fading McCarthy but more about fading a Yankees team that is overpriced and that is losing a lot more games than they are winning lately.
Danny Duffy has shown flashes so far in 2014 of becoming an impact starter. Duffy has posted rock solid skills on the road with a 2.19 ERA in 15 starts covering 74 innings. Duffy’s oppBA is just .215 on the road. The Royals have won four in a row and they’ve also won six of Duffy’s last eight starts. Over his last 21.1 innings, Duffy has allowed just 14 hits and three earned runs. He has allowed just one run in each of his last three starts against Colorado at Coors Field and against Minnesota and Cleveland. In a game in which the Royals have a better chance of winning than losing, we’ll gladly step in and scoop up the price.
TEXAS +133 over Seattle
The Rangers lost again last night by a score of 7-5 but they did outhit the Mariners 13-7. That’s a good sign against Hisashi Iwakuma and now Texas takes a huge step down in class when facing Chris Young. In 26 starts, Young is 12-7 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. If this guy pitched half his games at any place other than Safeco, Petco or Dodger Stadium, his ERA would be twice what it is. On the road, Young has walked 29 and struck out 35 in 70 innings. In those 70 road innings, Young has been taken yard an incredible 14 times. Chances are he’s not going to be able to keep the ball in the park in this one either. Young’s stats erode on the road in large part because his extreme fly-ball rate catches up with him. Young’s groundball/fly-ball rate of 23%/59% is a disaster waiting to happen in a hitter’s park like the one he’ll pitch in here. Young pitches to contact. He misses very few bats and his skills are regressing. Over his last 15 innings, he has walked 11 batters and posted a WHIP of 1.64. His swing and miss rate is a pathetic 3% since the beginning of July. Chris Young should be nicknamed “Dead Arm Pitching” and as a favorite on the road, do not let him anywhere near your bankroll.
Ron Washington stepped down yesterday as the Rangers manager after eight years of bad decisions. It was time to go but what we like is that these Rangers players are digging down deep in an attempt to get interim manager Tim Bogar his first win as a major league manager. Nick Martinez isn’t the best pitcher on this staff but we can assure you that he has 100 times more upside than Young. Martinez is a starter that has had to learn on the go because injuries to the Rangers staff forced a premature call-up. This is a guy that was pitching in Double-A last year and pretty much skipped Triple A. Martinez has made a big jump to the majors as an injury fill-in. In the long run he shows promise as a starter, with good command of three pitches leading to excellent control and few home runs. These difficult innings in a difficult park will serve him well down the line and while there is a good possibility of a poor outing, Martinez and the Rangers are still a far better option taking back a tag like this than spotting one with one of the five worst starters in the game. Fade Young when he’s favored on the road 100% of the time.
Tony Karpinski
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -12.5
So this will be an intriguing test for Oregon. Michigan State knows they can run the ball through the inside with Jeremy Langford, but the passing attack can still be a little bit shaky at times. Michigan State has some guys who can not only catch the football well, but they know what to do with it after the catch. Tony Lippett is a nightmare on the field. Defense has been MSUs calling card for years now, and the tough defense that MSU plays has become almost iconic recently. Oregon is still the tops of the Pac-12, and all eventually has to go through Oregon and Marcus Mariota. Oregon can score the ball at will, with one of the best QBs in the nation. Mariota will have a test, but his connection with Byron Marshall was deadly to say the least. Oregon by 17
Jerry Lambert
South Alabama vs. Kent State
Play: South Alabama -3
The South Alabama Jaguars won the last meeting between these two teams 38-21 last year. The Jaguars are loaded on offense with 9 returning starters. South Alabama should score at will today and the Jaguars are a very solid 5-1 ATS their last six games in September. The Jaguars is also a very nice 8-3 ATS their last 11 games overall while the Kent State Golden Flashes are a pathetic 1-4 ATS their last five non-conference games and they are a dismal 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. We look for the South Alabama Jaguars to roll over the Kent State Golden Flashes and grab the road ATS win & Cover today. T