Doug Upstone
Missouri vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo +4
Play On home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Toledo, a team that had a winning record last season, playing in non-conference games. The Rockets have been a super home bet for years at 54-34 ATS and they fit this killer system which is 31-6, 83.8 percent and is already 20 this year.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -166
The White Sox have dropped 12 of 16 and are a dismal 30-73 in their last 103 road games versus winning clubs. They've lost 13 of their last 16 in Cleveland, and I expect their struggles to continue with Kluber set to get the ball. The ace right-hander has a 2.84 home ERA on the season, and the Tribe has won 18 of his last 23 home starts. Quintana is struggling, having given up at least four runs in four of his last five starts. The Sox have dropped five of his last six outings overall and seven of his last 10 on the road.
Jonathan Jorcin
BYU vs. Texas
Play: BYU -1
This game comes at not a good time considering that Texas just broke into the top 25, but junior quarterback David Ash came down with a concussion, and that means a new quarterback will take over. That will provide a stall and stagnant offense, and BYU has a good enough defense to capitalize on it. BYU gets back three defensive starters who were suspended for the opener so their defense will be better this week. They will start Sophomore Tyrone Swoopes for his first collegiate start.
While Texas gets a first start quarterback, BYU gets Taysom Hill who had a good performance last week and will continue his successful year. They took care of business last year against this Texas team, and with all the changes Charlie Strong has made, this team will get better, but not this year. They have 2 more offensive linemen suspended this week for rule breaks. This spread went from -3.5, to -1.
Sam Martin
Mississippi at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Mississippi
We would have preferred Vanderbilt to show up better last week in order to keep this line down, and if they had we may have released Ole Miss as a premium selection. Still, even with this high number we still like the Rebels to win big, and after backing them at our top 25* rating last week in their blowout win and cover against Boise State, we'll take them here this Saturday as our Free CFB Play.
As we noted in last week's handicapping report, we feel Mississippi might just be the most underrated team in the country. They have a very good defense and an extremely underrated offense (at least in the passing department), and they are far more talented on all sides of the field compared to Vandy. Commodores embarrassed after an outright 20-point loss at home vs. Temple last week (committed seven turnovers) and that shock might just carry over to this Saturday. Ole Miss dominates and covers this big number!
BONES BEST BET
MICHIGAN +3.5
Color us surprised with this line being 3.5 instead of 3 or 2.5. We think Michigan wins this one outright, but let’s take the points and the hook as gravy! Michigan took the meeting between these two clubs last season 41-30 and 6 of the last 8 overall. It’s worth nothing that Notre Dame has a tendency to come out flat after hammering opponents the previous week – at just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games where they outscored opponents by 20 or more.
The Gold Sheet
Colorado State at Boise State
Play: Colorado State +10
Boise State doesn't seem to have the swagger it had under former HC Peterson. And since the Bronco defense is down a notch from previous editions, recommend taking DDs with dangerous CSU bunch coming off confidence-boosting victory over improved rival Colorado. Rams' smooth sr. QB Grayson greatly benefiting from new RB tandem hailing from the state of Florida.
Bob Balfe
Michigan +3.5 & +150
Notre Dame has a few key suspensions that are leaving players without a lot starts on the sidelines. For starters we saw Everett Golson look good against Rice last week, but it was Rice and this guy did miss all of last year. Michigan has a lot of good players on defense and it will be totally different this week. Michigan has a play maker in Devin Gardner and I believe he will put a show on today against a defense that does not have much experience and now with suspension and injury are more like babies out there as far as not having many starts between them. Gardner should keep them honest with his running ability and then get a wide open receiver against these defensive backs pretty much whenever he wants. This could be a long day for Notre Dame. I also like the Money line at plus 150.
Colorado Rockies -140
The Padres are not an offensive team so good luck playing in this park where the Rockies are capable of putting up more runs in one inning than the Padres put up in 3 games combined. I just don't like the Padres chances in this spot and neither does the odds makers in Vegas making this a -140 line when the starting pitcher is De La Rosa who never should be this high of a favorite.
Jeff Alexander
Minnesota Twins -109
The Twins are favored for a reason today, and that reason is Phil Hughes. The right-hander has given up 1 earned run or none in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Twins are 5-1 in those starts, 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus winning teams are 8-0 in his last 8 starts in the 3rd game of a series. The Twins haven't been favored very often lately, but it's been for good reason when they have been. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-2 in their last 7 as a home favorite.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is in the Midwest, as I like the Northwestern Wildcats to get it done over the Northern Illinois Huskies.
Pat Fitzgerald has been the coach at Northwestern for eight seasons. Never have any of his Wildcat teams been in jeopardy of being 0-2. Last week Northwestern lost at home to California, 31-24. This week I'm thinking the Wildcats are going to take a stand and force themselves on the Huskies.
My x-factor in this game is Northwestern freshman Justin Jackson, who scampered 40 yards on eight carries against Cal, including a 7-yard TD run in the third quarter that started a rally and showed there is plenty of fight in these 'Cats.
Northern Illinois has always been dangerous team, and the Huskies generally play the Big Ten tough. But you know, with a question still lingering over the quarterback position, something tells me this will be a tough trip to Evanston.
Northwestern has something to prove in this one, and I'm going to lay the points with the 'Cats.
5♦ NORTHWESTERN
Craig Davis
At the current time, Boise State is in a state of rebuilding as they return only five starters on both sides of the ball (combined). They're currently #73 on offense with 399 yards per game while they check in at # 73 on defense, allowing an average of 400 yards per game. This is not where the Broncos are used to being ranked on either side of the ball, but with new personnel and a new group of players, there's going to be an early learning curve.
Meanwhile, Colorado State started sluggishly against Colorado last week, but in the end they found a way to put together a few sustained drives with a solid ground game and pulled off a 31-17 game... a game that started 10-0 and 17-7 in favor of Colorado.
The Rams have more games played on both sides of the ball and, therefore, will have a much better chance to win this game.
Take Colorado State as your free play of the day.
1♦ COLORADO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Temple plus the points against Navy.
They like to say, "Give a Hoot" in Philadelphia when Temple plays, and after last week's eye-popping 37-7 win at Vanderbilt in the underdog role, the Owls have me "hooting" their praises this weekend as my free play.
Temple is familiar with the triple-option the Naval Academy likes to employ, as they dealt with Army on a yearly basis, beating them 6 years in a row straight up. The Owls also own a 3-0 spread mark their last 3 meetings with the Navy, and they catch the Midshipmen off a very heartbreaking loss in Baltimore to Ohio State in a game they looked like they were going to win outright.
Navy is just 3-5 as the road chalk the past 3 years, and while they are not laying that many here, I am siding with the Owls who look like they have something brewing in Matt Rhule's second season at the helm.
Take the home dog.
2♦ TEMPLE
Gabriel Dupont
I will play Wyoming over Air Force, as the two Mountain Division rivals open league play in the Mountain West Conference.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Air Force - Passing woes. Neither team showed any sort of prowess with its passing game last week. But this one being in Laramie, obviously the Cowboys are at an advantage. Air Force quarterback Kale Pearson attempted only six passes last week, completing three for 19 yards. He'll struggle under pressure from Wyoming's improved defense.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Wyomnig - Coach Craig Bohl. He led North Dakota State to the last three Football Championship Subdivision titles, and now he's sworn he will resurrect this to what it once was. The Cowboys have shown a different mentality since Bohl has arrived.
In conclusion, why WYOMING is my SMART PLAY in this game - I know that both Both of these teams displayed strong ground attacks in their victories last week. The Cowboys rushed for 209 yards, including a 134-yard performance by Shaun Wick, against Montana. And while Air Force rushed for 539 yards and six touchdowns, it came against Nicholls State. Need I say more? Besides, the final tally was nearly 20 yards more than Wyoming's 2013 rushing average of 190.4 yards per game last season.
The Cowboys have a rejuvenated mindset this year, under Bohl, and I like the attitudes of these players. Wyoming players said back in July it was important to get THIS GAME under the belt, and get a Mountain West win immediately. The Pokes are looking specifically at this contest.
5♦ WYOMING
Chris Jordan
It's the final meeting for awhile between Notre Dame and Michigan, and before everyone begins clamoring about the end of a tradition, make note this is not as big a rivalry as everyone thinks. This is not the end of Notre Dame-USC, or Michigan-Ohio State.
It's the end of a series between two storied programs that have had some epic battles. And this year, the battle doesn't figure to be as embroiled as most think.
No. 16 Notre Dame is much better than the Wolverines, who have won three last-minute victories in the past five seasons when these two have met. The Irish are far too good for this one to be close this year.
I know that half of the past 24 games have been decided by five points or less, but I have this one landing on 7 or more, with Notre Dame's talent prevailing in the second half. See, the Wolverines are just 6-8 on the road under coach Brady Hoke, including a combined 0-4 at rivals Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame.
Plus, factor in Michigan's offensive line struggling last season, when the Wolverines averaged just 126 yards per game rushing. They saw two linemen taken in the NFL draft and now will be taking on beefed up Irish starting defensive line.
Notre Dame is 8-2 at home in night games at home, including 4-0 against Michigan, and tonight should be no different for the Irish.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Brad Wilton
Holy Toledo! The Rockets opened their 2014 season with a rather large 54-20...OK, OK, so it came against lowly New Hampshire, but that wins serves to gives us a little line value against the reloading Mizzou Tigers who did finally put away a pesky South Dakota State team last week in Columbia, 38-18.
Missouri has been able to cover 9 of their last 13 against non-conference opponents, and they did win last year's meeting with Toledo 38-23 as the 14 point choice.
Tigers quarterback Matty Mauck did grow up in nearby Kenton, Ohio, so you have that intangible angle working in conjunction with the fact Gary Pinkel used to coach Toledo from 1991 to 2000.
Small number, and Mizzou covers it.
4♦ MISSOURI
David Banks
Notre Dame -3.5
In what is for now the last scheduled meeting between two marquee schools, the Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 1-0 ATS) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0, 1-0 ATS) look to build on season-opening wins at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN Saturday night at 7:30 ET on NBC. There was no dj vu at Ann Arbor in Week 1 as Michigan mauled Appalachian State 52-14, avoiding a second humongous upset to that FCS program. The Fighting Irish meanwhile had little trouble putting away Rice 48-17 here at home. Michigan won this matchup 41-30 at Ann Arbor last season, marking the third straight year that the home team has prevailed in this series.
Notre Dame outgained Rice by over 200 yards overall, but the defense did allow more than a few big plays while surrendering 367 total yards as that unit remains short-handed with at least five players from that side of the ball still out pending an academic investigation. Granted not all the suspended players are starters, but the Irish are dangerously thin and if Rice can pile up yardage in chunks against them, just imagine what a far more talented offense like Michigan can do. Speaking of academics, quarterback Everett Golson did make a nice return after being forced to sit out all of last season due to grades, as he accounted for five touchdowns completing 14-of-22 passes for 295 yards and two touchdowns through the air and adding 41 rushing yards on 12 carries with three touchdowns on the ground. It remains to be seen if he can come close to duplicating that vs. a Michigan defense that showed great improvement over the previous season by ranking 38th in the country in total defense last season and that held Appalachian State to just 280 total yards.
The Wolverines accumulated 560 total yards offensively in that contest with great balance, as quarterback Devin Gardner was nearly perfect completing 13-of-14 passes for 173 yards and three touchdown while Michigan added a robust 350 rushing yards on an obscene 9.7 yards per rush! No, the Wolverines are not likely to duplicate what they did vs. an FCS defense when they visit South Bend, but the fact that the Irish are thin defensively should still allow Michigan to move the ball well and put points on the board. The entire key to this contest should be how well the Michigan defense can contain the dual threat Golson, and if the defense continues the steady improvement it showed last year, it should keep him relatively in check. Normally this would be a fairly even match-up, which in itself would give Michigan value getting points, but these are not really normal conditions as Notre Dame should feel the effects of the defensive suspensions more this week than it did vs. Rice, which gives the Wolverines a good chance of going into South Bend and coming away with an outright upset.
The underdogs have gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, with Michigan going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Notre Dame is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game and 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards its previous game.