Great Lakes Sports
South Alabama at Kent State
Play: South Alabama
The South Alabama Jaguars won the last meeting between these two teams 38-21 last year. The Jaguars are loaded on offense with 9 returning starters. South Alabama should score at will today and the Jaguars are a very solid 5-1 ATS their last six games in September. The Jaguars is also a very nice 8-3 ATS their last 11 games overall while the Kent State Golden Flashes are a pathetic 1-4 ATS their last five non-conference games and they are a dismal 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. We look for the South Alabama Jaguars to roll over the Kent State Golden Flashes and grab the road ATS win&Cover today.
Tom Barton
South Alabama vs Kent State
Pick: South Alabama -3
The Jaguars have made massive strides and it seems everyone in the area is excited about this little known team. You're in Alabama and if you can recruit well the talent will be there, and it is here. The Jaguars return 9 starters on offense and their new QB is very highly recruited as a duel threat. Their O-line should give them plenty of time because there are two dynamic tackles on the squad. Defensively they return 6 starters including all 4 defensive backs. Kent State came crashing hard back to earth last season and more of the same crashing should be expected today. Last week this team managed just 31 rushing yards and that can be explained as they are breaking in 3 new lineman and the Golden Flashes were without their most touted offensive weapon, 250 pound running back Trayion Durham last week and I doubt he starts today. Either case the Jaguars are just too big and too talented here.
Dr Bob
NORTHWESTERN (-7) 35 Northern Illinois 28
Northwestern was surprised by Cal last week, losing to the improved Bears 24-31 after getting down by 24 points. The Wildcats gained just 4.4 yards per play while doing a good job defensively in limiting the Bears’ better than average attack to just 5.3 yppl. Northwestern’s offense is better than what they showed last week, as quarterback Trevor Siemian has a long track record of solid performance and should bounce back from a bad performance last week (4.7 yards per play pass) with good numbers against a sub-par Northern Illinois pass defense. Northwestern also matches up well defensively with their strength of stopping the run going up against a Huskies’ attack that runs the ball 60% of the time. Northern Illinois is without Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch but new quarterbacks Matt McIntosh and Drew Hare fit the mold of recent NIU quarterbacks. Two years ago everyone wondered how the Huskies could replace dynamic quarterback Chandler Harnish after a Harnish-led attack averaged 38.0 points in 2010 and 38.3 points in 2011. Those worries were put to rest pretty quickly as Lynch led his team to an average of 38.6 points in 2012 and 39.6 points last season. It’s a plug and play system that should be just as good this year as it was in Lynch’s first season two years ago. However, those great numbers that Northern Illinois has racked up in recent years have mostly come against bad defensive teams and the Huskies have struggled against good defensive teams at times. That could be the case here as my ratings project a modest 5.3 yards per play for the Huskies against a good Northwestern defense that I rate at 0.5 yards per play better than average. Overall, my ratings favor the Wildcats by 9 points but Northern Illinois applies to a solid 132-58-3 ATS situation that will keep me from leaning with Northwestern. I don’t like either side but I do lean with the Over.
PURDUE (-3) 29 Central Michigan 21
Purdue managed to hang on to beat Western Michigan last week 43-34 but the Boilermakers were not impressive in doing so, as they were outplayed from the line of scrimmage 409 yards at 5.4 yards per play to 458 yards at 6.4 yppl by a bad Broncos team. Central Michigan, meanwhile, came back from 16 points down late in the 3rd quarter to beat FCS team Chattanooga 20-16. That win sounds worse than Purdue’s win but Chattanooga is ranked 15th in the FCS coaches poll and I actually rate the Moccasins a bit higher than I rate Purdue. Central Michigan struggled offensively (just 4.8 yppl) but the Chippewas played better than expected defensively in yielding just 256 yards at 4.8 yppl. Part of Central Michigan’s offensive problem was the absence of 1st Team All-MAC WR Titus Davis, who was injured in the first quarter of last week’s game after just 1 catch. Davis is far better than any other Central Michigan receiver and last season he averaged an impressive 10.9 yards on the 102 passes intended for him. Last year’s #2 WR Andrew Flory is also out due to suspension so quarterback Cooper Rush, who was below average as a freshman starter last season, should regress as long as Davis is out. However, CMU may be able to take advantage of a horrible Boilermakers’ run defense that gave up 5.8 yards per rushing play last season and surrendered 7.4 yprp to Western Michigan last week. The problem is that Central Michigan is a bad running team that only managed 3.9 yprp last week against Chattanooga, who would be 0.4 yprp worse than an average FBS defense. What we have here is too bad offensive teams going up against two bad defensive units but my ratings give the edge to Purdue (I favor the Boilermakers by 5 points) and Central Michigan applies to a negative 61-140-2 ATS early season road situation. Purdue looks like the better of two evils in this match up.
Navy (-3) 31 TEMPLE 27
Navy fought hard at Ohio State before eventually losing to the Buckeyes 17-34 but their game rating was positive and the Midshipmen actually performed about the level I had projected overall while being better than expected offensively and worse than expected defensively. Temple, meanwhile, won 37-7 as a 13 ½ point dog at Vanderbilt, but that performance actually wasn’t as impressive as the final score indicates. The Owls averaged 4.55 yards per play and allowed 4.53 yppl last week and the margin was exaggerated by 7 Vanderbilt turnovers. Temple obviously still played better than expected, as I had projected the Owls to be outgained by 0.5 yards per play, but it looks like the oddsmakers have overreacted to that one win since my updated ratings favor Navy by 4 ½ points. That’s not enough value to play Navy here and there are situations favoring both sides that muddle the picture a bit.
TEXAS (+1) 26 Brigham Young 25
My season win bet on Texas to win more than 7½ games has taken some huge hits in the past week. Starting quarterback David Ash suffered a concussion last week and is out indefinitely and the Longhorns have lost 2 starting offensive linemen - one was kicked off the team and top linemen C Espinosa is out for the year with a broken ankle suffered last week. I don’t have any concerns about the Texas defense, which I thought was going to be really good this season and certainly disappoint last week in yielding only 94 yards at 1.6 yards per play to North Texas. Offensively, however, the Longhorns go from a preseason rating of 0.9 yppl better than average with Ash to average. That, of course, depends on how well new quarterback Tyrone Swoopes plays and there is certainly potential for him to be very good given his top 10 ranking out of high school (he was rated higher than Ash was). My model projects Swoopes between average and 0.5 yards per pass play better than average but I’m going to go with the low end of that spectrum given how bad the pass attack looked last week with Ash. That could be the result of Ash playing most of the game with a concussion but I’ll still error on the conservative side and call for Swoopes and the Texas attack to be just average. If that is indeed the case then the Longhorns would struggle against a good BYU defense that rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average.
The BYU offense looks like it has improved with quarterback Taysom Hill looking much better as a passer despite losing his top receivers from last season. Hill threw for an average of 8.3 yards per pass play with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions last week and the Cougars’ rushing attack looked strong. Last season the Cougars ran all over a confused Texas defense for 553 ground yards at 7.8 yards per rushing play and ended with 682 total yards in a 40-21 win in Provo. Texas suffered another humiliating defensive performance the next week in a 23-44 loss to Ole’ Miss that prompted the firing of DC Manny Diaz. The Longhorns’ defense went from horrible to very good after Diaz was fired and they appear to be elite with Charlie Strong and his good staff leading that unit. This will be a test for both the BYU offense and the Texas defense and my current ratings give the edge to the Longhorns’ defense. Overall, my updated ratings favor BYU by ½ a point in this game and I would have favored Texas by 5 points prior to all the attrition. The line has been adjusted properly and I’m going to pick Texas to win by a point based on the revenge motive. But, I certainly have no interest in betting this game.
UL LAFAYETTE (-14) 38 Louisiana Tech 20
UL Lafayette is favored to win the Sun Belt and quarterback Terrance Broadway is the star of that league. Broadway has not only been good by Sun Belt standards but he’s been good by any measure, averaging a robust 8.0 yards per pass play in the previous two seasons with the Ragin’ Cajuns while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Broadway wasn’t particularly great in last week’s 45-6 win over Southern (they were favored by 38 points), as he threw for just 7.4 yards per pass play. However, RB Elijah McGuire is a budding superstar that ran for 129 yards at 9.9 ypr last week after a freshman season in which he tallied 863 yards at 8.4 ypr while also catching passes for 384 yards at 17.5 yards per catch. Elijah is a big play waiting to happen and he’ll combine with Broadway and big play WR Jamal Robinson to slice up a subpar Louisiana Tech defense.
Louisiana Tech is too offensively challenged to keep up, as the Bulldogs were 1.1 yards per play worse than average last season (5.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and are still well below average even with an upgrade in talent at the quarterback position in Iowa transfer Cody Sokol. Sokol managed just 4.4 yards per pass play against Oklahoma’s starters last week before gaining some yards against the Sooners’ backups in the 4th quarter. The Bulldogs will have more success this week against a mediocre UL Lafayette defense but they have scored more than 16 points in just 3 of 12 games against FBS competition since Sonny Dykes left for Berkeley – and all 3 of those were against horrendous defensive teams (UTEP, Florida International, and Southern Miss). I actually do project more than 16 points for Louisiana Tech in this game based on what should be an improved offense (although still well below average) and the line on this game is actually fair. However, Lafayette applies to a very good 108-35-1 ATS momentum situation and I like the Ragin’ Cajuns based on that.
ARMY (-3 ½) 31 Buffalo 24
Army didn’t play last week and this will be their first game under new head coach Jeff Monken, who did a great job running the option attack at Georgia Southern. Buffalo did play last week and the Bulls were horrible in winning by just 10 points against a Duquesne team that is about 30 points worse than an average FBS team. Buffalo’s defense was decent last season, rating at 0.3 yards per play worse than average, which is better than average for a MAC team, but the absence of the NFL’s 5th overall pick, LB Khalil Mack, and 6 other starters from last year’s stop unit will assuredly lead to a significant drop in the level of the defense. Given up 5.3 yards per play last week to a Duquesne offense that would average 4.0 yppl on the road against an average FBS defense is an indication of how far the Bulls’ defense will slip. I also expect a worse than average Buffalo offense to slip some even with quarterback Joe Licata returning. The graduation of All-MAC WR Alex Neutz is going to be tough to overcome given that Neutz averaged 10.0 yards per pass thrown to him while the returning receivers averaged only 7.3 ypa last season. I rate Buffalo’s offense at 0.8 yards per play worse than average heading into this season and the Bulls averaged only 5.5 yppl last week against a Duquesne defense that would allow 6.2 yppl on the road to an average FBS team – so my projection was pretty close based on last week’s game.
I have Army’s attack rated higher than last season with Monken being an improvement over former coach Rich Ellington and I expect the Cadets to have a slightly better than average offense this season. The problem is that the defense figures to continue to be horrible – although it’s likely to be better than the unit that was 1.5 yppl worse than average last season. My ratings favor Army by 7 points and I’ll lean with the Cadets to take down the Bulls in their season opener.
Navy (-3) 31 TEMPLE 27
Navy fought hard at Ohio State before eventually losing to the Buckeyes 17-34 but their game rating was positive and the Midshipmen actually performed about the level I had projected overall while being better than expected offensively and worse than expected defensively. Temple, meanwhile, won 37-7 as a 13 ½ point dog at Vanderbilt, but that performance actually wasn’t as impressive as the final score indicates. The Owls averaged 4.55 yards per play and allowed 4.53 yppl last week and the margin was exaggerated by 7 Vanderbilt turnovers. Temple obviously still played better than expected, as I had projected the Owls to be outgained by 0.5 yards per play, but it looks like the oddsmakers have overreacted to that one win since my updated ratings favor Navy by 4 ½ points. That’s not enough value to play Navy here and there are situations favoring both sides that muddle the picture a bit.
Dr Bob
PURDUE (-3) 29 Central Michigan 21
Purdue managed to hang on to beat Western Michigan last week 43-34 but the Boilermakers were not impressive in doing so, as they were outplayed from the line of scrimmage 409 yards at 5.4 yards per play to 458 yards at 6.4 yppl by a bad Broncos team. Central Michigan, meanwhile, came back from 16 points down late in the 3rd quarter to beat FCS team Chattanooga 20-16. That win sounds worse than Purdue’s win but Chattanooga is ranked 15th in the FCS coaches poll and I actually rate the Moccasins a bit higher than I rate Purdue. Central Michigan struggled offensively (just 4.8 yppl) but the Chippewas played better than expected defensively in yielding just 256 yards at 4.8 yppl. Part of Central Michigan’s offensive problem was the absence of 1st Team All-MAC WR Titus Davis, who was injured in the first quarter of last week’s game after just 1 catch. Davis is far better than any other Central Michigan receiver and last season he averaged an impressive 10.9 yards on the 102 passes intended for him. Last year’s #2 WR Andrew Flory is also out due to suspension so quarterback Cooper Rush, who was below average as a freshman starter last season, should regress as long as Davis is out. However, CMU may be able to take advantage of a horrible Boilermakers’ run defense that gave up 5.8 yards per rushing play last season and surrendered 7.4 yprp to Western Michigan last week. The problem is that Central Michigan is a bad running team that only managed 3.9 yprp last week against Chattanooga, who would be 0.4 yprp worse than an average FBS defense. What we have here is too bad offensive teams going up against two bad defensive units but my ratings give the edge to Purdue (I favor the Boilermakers by 5 points) and Central Michigan applies to a negative 61-140-2 ATS early season road situation. Purdue looks like the better of two evils in this match up.
NORTHWESTERN (-7) 35 Northern Illinois 28
Northwestern was surprised by Cal last week, losing to the improved Bears 24-31 after getting down by 24 points. The Wildcats gained just 4.4 yards per play while doing a good job defensively in limiting the Bears’ better than average attack to just 5.3 yppl. Northwestern’s offense is better than what they showed last week, as quarterback Trevor Siemian has a long track record of solid performance and should bounce back from a bad performance last week (4.7 yards per play pass) with good numbers against a sub-par Northern Illinois pass defense. Northwestern also matches up well defensively with their strength of stopping the run going up against a Huskies’ attack that runs the ball 60% of the time. Northern Illinois is without Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch but new quarterbacks Matt McIntosh and Drew Hare fit the mold of recent NIU quarterbacks. Two years ago everyone wondered how the Huskies could replace dynamic quarterback Chandler Harnish after a Harnish-led attack averaged 38.0 points in 2010 and 38.3 points in 2011. Those worries were put to rest pretty quickly as Lynch led his team to an average of 38.6 points in 2012 and 39.6 points last season. It’s a plug and play system that should be just as good this year as it was in Lynch’s first season two years ago. However, those great numbers that Northern Illinois has racked up in recent years have mostly come against bad defensive teams and the Huskies have struggled against good defensive teams at times. That could be the case here as my ratings project a modest 5.3 yards per play for the Huskies against a good Northwestern defense that I rate at 0.5 yards per play better than average. Overall, my ratings favor the Wildcats by 9 points but Northern Illinois applies to a solid 132-58-3 ATS situation that will keep me from leaning with Northwestern. I don’t like either side but I do lean with the Over.
Oregon State (+10 ½) 32 HAWAII 26
I either underestimated Hawaii or overestimated Washington last week, although it was probably a little of both. Hawaii lost by just 1 point, 16-17, as a big home underdog to the Huskies and they host another Pac 12 opponent this week. Hawaii’s offense only averaged 4.4 yards per play last week, which is not significantly more than I had projected, but they were able to run 97 plays because they converted on more 3rd downs than would be expected given their overall low efficiency. They also had a dominating play differential (+26) because Washington converted on only 5 of 15 3rd down plays with backup quarterback Jeff Lindquist subbing in for projected starter Cyler Miles, who was serving a suspension. Lindquist is either much, much worse than I had projected (he averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play) or Hawaii’s pass defense is much, much better than they were last season when they gave up an average of 7.3 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense. Hawaii does have a new defensive coordinator, which often leads to improvement of a bad pass defense that played worse than their talent rating the previous season. I had projected an improvement of 0.4 yppp but it now appears that the Warriors’ secondary has improved more than that – even if Lindquist is much worse than projected.
While Hawaii exceeded expectations last week it appears as if Oregon State fell far short in a 29-14 victory as a 32 ½ point favorite against Portland State. What’s really odd about that game is that the Beavers outgained Portland State 519 yards to 214 yards and were +4 in turnover margin and only won by 15 points. Those numbers would normally lead to winning margin of more than 40 points but Oregon State kept stalling when they got inside the 20 yard line, scoring just 1 touchdown in 9 red zone opportunities. Oregon State played better than the final score would indicate and my ratings favor the Beavers by 12 points in this game, which is close to where the line opened. While the line value is now on the side of Oregon State, the Beavers apply to a very negative 29-81-1 ATS 1st road game situation while Hawaii applies to a 140-61-2 ATS early season angle. Those two situations have overlapped 7 times and the home team is 7-0 ATS. Oregon State has been a perennially slow starter under coach Mike Riley, as the Beavers are just 12-28-1 ATS in their first 4 games of the season since Riley returned in 2003 – including 3-19 ATS as a favorite. While the technical analysis favoring Hawaii is certainly compelling I will pass on making the Warriors a Best Bet based on the negative line value. However, if Hawaii plays like they did last week then they’ll cover easily and Hawaii’s offense matches up well in this game. The Warriors’ offense likes to feed RB Joey Iosefa the ball (30 carries for 143 yards last week) and Oregon State’s weakness is a bad run defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play last season and started this season by yielding 6.0 yprp last week to Portland State. I came close to pulling the trigger on this game but the line move away from where the line opened and where my ratings project it should be is enough to get me to pass. However, I obviously still like the Hawaii side.
Oregon State (+10 ½) 32 HAWAII 26
I either underestimated Hawaii or overestimated Washington last week, although it was probably a little of both. Hawaii lost by just 1 point, 16-17, as a big home underdog to the Huskies and they host another Pac 12 opponent this week. Hawaii’s offense only averaged 4.4 yards per play last week, which is not significantly more than I had projected, but they were able to run 97 plays because they converted on more 3rd downs than would be expected given their overall low efficiency. They also had a dominating play differential (+26) because Washington converted on only 5 of 15 3rd down plays with backup quarterback Jeff Lindquist subbing in for projected starter Cyler Miles, who was serving a suspension. Lindquist is either much, much worse than I had projected (he averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play) or Hawaii’s pass defense is much, much better than they were last season when they gave up an average of 7.3 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense. Hawaii does have a new defensive coordinator, which often leads to improvement of a bad pass defense that played worse than their talent rating the previous season. I had projected an improvement of 0.4 yppp but it now appears that the Warriors’ secondary has improved more than that – even if Lindquist is much worse than projected.
While Hawaii exceeded expectations last week it appears as if Oregon State fell far short in a 29-14 victory as a 32 ½ point favorite against Portland State. What’s really odd about that game is that the Beavers outgained Portland State 519 yards to 214 yards and were +4 in turnover margin and only won by 15 points. Those numbers would normally lead to winning margin of more than 40 points but Oregon State kept stalling when they got inside the 20 yard line, scoring just 1 touchdown in 9 red zone opportunities. Oregon State played better than the final score would indicate and my ratings favor the Beavers by 12 points in this game, which is close to where the line opened. While the line value is now on the side of Oregon State, the Beavers apply to a very negative 29-81-1 ATS 1st road game situation while Hawaii applies to a 140-61-2 ATS early season angle. Those two situations have overlapped 7 times and the home team is 7-0 ATS. Oregon State has been a perennially slow starter under coach Mike Riley, as the Beavers are just 12-28-1 ATS in their first 4 games of the season since Riley returned in 2003 – including 3-19 ATS as a favorite. While the technical analysis favoring Hawaii is certainly compelling I will pass on making the Warriors a Best Bet based on the negative line value. However, if Hawaii plays like they did last week then they’ll cover easily and Hawaii’s offense matches up well in this game. The Warriors’ offense likes to feed RB Joey Iosefa the ball (30 carries for 143 yards last week) and Oregon State’s weakness is a bad run defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play last season and started this season by yielding 6.0 yprp last week to Portland State. I came close to pulling the trigger on this game but the line move away from where the line opened and where my ratings project it should be is enough to get me to pass. However, I obviously still like the Hawaii side.
TENNESSEE (-17) 39 Arkansas State 19
Arkansas State has their 4th head coach in 4 years, as recent success has led to their coaches being poached by big name schools, as Hugh Freeze went to Ole’ Miss, Gus Malzahn went to Auburn last season and last year’s coach Bryan Harsin is the new head coach at Boise State. The Red Wolves look to carry on their recent tradition of success with Blake Anderson, who coach under Larry Fedora at Southern Miss and North Carolina. Anderson inherits an experienced defense that struggled against the run and the pass last season but should be closer to average this year while the offense has a new look with Fredi Knighten taking over at quarterback. Knighten is a very good runner that completes a good percentage of short passes but doesn’t get the ball downfield very well while top back Michael Gordon averaged 6.7 yards per run last year and averaged 9.7 ypr on his 7 carries last week. Overall, the Arkansas State attack racked up 558 yards at 7.2 yards per play in a 37-10 win over Montana State, which is actually just an average performance since an average FBS offense would average 7.2 yppl at home against the Bobcats’ defense. Tennessee looks like a better than average defensive team this season after a good performance last Sunday night against Utah State (4.1 yards per play allowed in a 38-7 win) and I project 358 yards at 4.8 yppl for Arkansas State’s face paced attack.
The Tennessee offense was worse than expected in averaged a modest 5.0 yppl against Utah State last week. Utah State does have a good defense but I had expected the Volunteers to be better in the pass attack. Returning quarterback Justin Worley was efficient in completing 27 of 38 passes with no interceptions but his 6.5 yards per pass play average was less than the 7.2 yppp that I had projected for him last week. Worley should be better this week and I project 480 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Vols in this game against a decent Arkansas State defense. Overall, my ratings favor Tennessee by 15 ½ points (with 58 total points) but I like the Vols here on the basis of a 61-140-2 ATS road letdown situation that applies to Arkansas State.
UL LAFAYETTE (-14) 38 Louisiana Tech 20
UL Lafayette is favored to win the Sun Belt and quarterback Terrance Broadway is the star of that league. Broadway has not only been good by Sun Belt standards but he’s been good by any measure, averaging a robust 8.0 yards per pass play in the previous two seasons with the Ragin’ Cajuns while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Broadway wasn’t particularly great in last week’s 45-6 win over Southern (they were favored by 38 points), as he threw for just 7.4 yards per pass play. However, RB Elijah McGuire is a budding superstar that ran for 129 yards at 9.9 ypr last week after a freshman season in which he tallied 863 yards at 8.4 ypr while also catching passes for 384 yards at 17.5 yards per catch. Elijah is a big play waiting to happen and he’ll combine with Broadway and big play WR Jamal Robinson to slice up a subpar Louisiana Tech defense.
Louisiana Tech is too offensively challenged to keep up, as the Bulldogs were 1.1 yards per play worse than average last season (5.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and are still well below average even with an upgrade in talent at the quarterback position in Iowa transfer Cody Sokol. Sokol managed just 4.4 yards per pass play against Oklahoma’s starters last week before gaining some yards against the Sooners’ backups in the 4th quarter. The Bulldogs will have more success this week against a mediocre UL Lafayette defense but they have scored more than 16 points in just 3 of 12 games against FBS competition since Sonny Dykes left for Berkeley – and all 3 of those were against horrendous defensive teams (UTEP, Florida International, and Southern Miss). I actually do project more than 16 points for Louisiana Tech in this game based on what should be an improved offense (although still well below average) and the line on this game is actually fair. However, Lafayette applies to a very good 108-35-1 ATS momentum situation and I like the Ragin’ Cajuns based on that.
Matt Fargo
Michigan State vs. Oregon
Play: Michigan State +13
The game of the day takes place from Eugene as Michigan St. travels to Oregon in a matchup of two top six teams. Both the Spartans and Ducks are coming off blowout wins over cupcake FCS teams last week so looking at those games to gauge anything is worthless. What we do know is that it matches up one of the best offenses in the nation against one of the best defenses. This is a case where I think the defense can prevail and I have the Spartans as a sleeper team to make a National Championship run. While Oregon is certainly one of the best teams in the country, it should not be laying this type of number against such a quality opponent. Preparing for the Ducks is never easy and teams that only get a week to do so are at a big disadvantage. While Michigan St. did in fact play last week, playing against Jacksonville St. doesn't count and the Spartans have been scheming for the Ducks since camp opened especially with a bye week on deck and then Eastern Michigan. In order to slow down the Ducks offense, opponents need to slow down themselves. Michigan St.'s smashmouth style of football is exactly what a team needs to upset the rhythm of Oregon, and you can just look at what Stanford has done in recent matchups with Oregon. In their matchup with the Spartans, the game will come down to discipline, something the Ducks didn't have against the Cardinal last season. Michigan St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after one or more consecutive straight up wins while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Additionally, the Spartans are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 road games after outgaining their opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. The Spartans have not been a double-digit underdog since 2009 and they should not be one here.
OC Dooley
Georgia St +1
For those who have taken the time to read this analysis you are aware of Georgia State whose opening game was an ESPNU nationally televised contest on a Wednesday evening which was the initial “lined” telecast of the brand new campaign. Entering the contest reeling Georgia State who is virtually ignored in a college football rich Atlanta market had just ONE victory in a two-year span. Last Wednesday against a program new to Division I-A (Abilene Christian) the Panthers finally broke through with an outright victory but “failed” to cover the spread as a home favorite inside the Georgia Dome (home to the NFL Atlanta Falcons). At most offshore locations Georgia State actually opened as a one-and-a-half point home favorite but due to the program’s futility that money-line number has swung to the other side. Today I predict that Georgia State will finally break through “against the spread” in part due to an advantage in the “pits” where games are ultimately won or lost. Last week New Mexico State won their opener 28-10 against an opponent (Cal Poly) who operates out of the option formation. That defense will be challenged in a completely different way this time around as they face a Georgia State offense that rolled up a program RECORD 566 yards in the opener. The defensive line of New Mexico State is SMALL (the heaviest weighs 275 pounds and the rest “240 or less”). Thus the Aggies will be pushed around by Georgia State’s massive offensive line in which only one starter weighs less than 300 pounds
Anthony Michael
Michigan +3.5
Michigan will have a ton of extra motivation here since this is the last game in this series in the foreseeable future since Notre Dame basically fired Michigan as an annual opponent. Also working in Michigan's favor here is the history of this series as the underdog has covered 21 of the last 26 between these 2 teams. The Irish have covered only 4 of their last 16 games as a home favorite when playing off of a home game the previous week. Take the underdog Wolverines here.
Wunderdog
Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Miami +105
The Miami Marlins suffered a 100 loss season a year ago, as they opted for youth over established veterans and cleaned house. The move is paying off as the Marlins have some strong, maturing young talent. They have had a respectable season, one which could have been very interesting if they did not lose Jose Fernandez for the season. The Braves have had nightmares in Marlins Park this season where they have lost four times on the season allowing 9+ runs in three of those. Nathan Eovaldi has handled the Braves' lineup as he owns a 2.31 ERA in his five career starts against them. The Braves are struggling on the road at 6-13 in their last 19, and Woods certainly has aided the cause as the Braves are 0-5 in his last five road starts. Woods has a bad track record in Miami with the Braves 1-4 in his last five starts. Back the home team Marlins.
Hollywood Sports
Ball St. at Iowa
Play: Under
Ball State (1-0) held Colgate to just 227 yards of offense last week in their 30-10 victory. The Cardinals allowed only 137 yards in the air for that game -- and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in that game. Additionally, Ball State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals have some good young players in an improving defensive unit under defensive coordinator Kevin Kelly. Iowa (1-0) comes off a 31-23 win over Northern Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa has plenty of quality running backs -- but the problem for them on offense is the need for their passing game to step up after QB Jake Ruddick finished 9th in the Big Ten last year on passing efficiency. Take the Under.
LT Profits
San Diego vs Colorado
Pick: Under 9.5
Not even playing in altitude could help the San Diego Padres last night as they scored three runs or less for the ninth straight game, getting shut out 3-0 by the Colorado Rockies. Do not expect improvement tonight vs. Jorge De La Rosa, who has had the best home success of any pitcher in Rockies history with a career record of 44-14 at Coors Field! He is 9-2 with a 3.19 ERA here this season. Meanwhile, young Joe Wieland showed promise when he allowed three earned runs or less in four of his five starts for the Padres in 2012, but he has since missed 28 months with two elbow surgeries. However, he looked fine posting a 3.03 ERA with 36 strikeouts vs. six walks in his 38.2 rehab innings, so he could be tough his first start back. The ‘under’ is 42-20-3 in the Padres’ last 65 road games.
The Real Animal
Utah -12½
Fresno State allowed 701 yards at USC last week and defensively was on the field for 104 plays. Now another road game for the Bulldogs and at high altitude with a change of surface. The Bulldogs are trying to replace Derek Carr, the only rookie QB drafted that will start tomorrow. All he did last year was lead the nation in passing yards and total offense. With Carr at the controls, the Fresno State defense surrendered 30.3 points a game last year, up from 23.8 in 2012. Plus they played a bunch of zeros in the soft Mountain West. The schedule includes the likes of Cal Poly, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, SD State, UNLV, Wyoming, and San Jose State. They lost to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl 45-20 and in the process were out-gained 499-253. So in their last two games Fresno State has been outscored 97-33 and out-gained 1188-571. Utah won their opener by 42 last week and this is always a tough environment for a visitor not accustomed to playing here. These teams have not met since 1999. The Utes now have a healthy Travis Wilson at QB and he was extremely efficient last week completing 13-of-18 for 265 yards. Utah lost a ton of skilled positional players last year to injury but they are all back in the lineup now. Contributors like WR Keneth Scott, TE Westlee Tonga, and RB Devontae Booker. Utah is extremely hungry coming off two consecutive 5-7 years. But before that they posted at least eight wins in six consecutive seasons and went to a bowl annually from 2006-2011.
Vegas Butcher
Minnesota Twins -110
I know Hughes’ history against the Angels isn’t pretty but this is a different pitcher than in years past. Hughes scrapped his ‘slider’ for a ‘cutter’, on one of his most effective pitches. He throws his cutter 22% of the time and increased the usage of his curveball to 15% from about 8 % last year. As good as the Angels are offensively, they rank 14th against the cutter and 21st against the curve. They rank 7th overall against the ‘slider’ but of course that’s not a pitch that Hughes uses anymore. So facing him for the first time in 2014, it might take LA a few times through the rotation to get used to Hughes’ new offerings. The play isn’t just due to the fact that I believe Hughes will have a lot of success today, but it’s also a fade of Rasmus, and more importantly, a fade of the whole LA pitching staff. Rasmus is a reliever, and in his last start he went 3 innings, while throwing 49 pitches. Even if he lasts 4 this time around, that means that LA’s bullpen will have to pick up the slack for more than half of the game. And LA’s BP isn’t in the best of shape for this one. Jepsen, Smith, and Street have all thrown in 2 straight games, and though all 3 will be available tonight, their effectiveness might not be at 100%. Obviously Minnesota’s BP isn’t on the same leverl as they’re terrible, but Hughes typically works through the 7 or 8 inning, and I trust Perkins to close it out if the opportunity presents itself (he’s rested). In any case, Minnesota has a top-10 offense and they’ve hit the ball well lately, averaging almost 12 hits per game in the last 6. LA is at a big disadvantage here, having to rely on their relievers to get the job done tonight, while facing a top-20 pitcher in the process. I like Minnesota’s chances in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Ohio State/ Virginia Tech Under 47: Hard to look anywhere but the Under in this game. Both teams have inexperience at the QB slot, both have strong running games and both have stout defenses. That tends to lead to low scoring games. Ohio State was gashed for 370 yards on the ground last week, so I really look for them to batten down the hatches on that side of the ball. This is a team that came in with perhaps the 2nd best defense in the Big 10 and I expect them to play like it here. Virginia Tech has a super quick and super stout front 7 and should be able to contain the Ohio State ground attack. This game will be more about running the ball, tough defense and field positions. Not allot of chances to be taken by either coach, especially knowing that they have such strong defenses to lean back on. This game should be played in the 30s at best.
Kentucky -13.5 over Ohio: Watch out for the Kentucky Wildcats this year. They are in the 2nd year of Mark Stoops system and he has done a very good job recruiting in his time here. They have 15 starters back and just put up 656 yards and 59 points on UT-Martin. The Cats have gone 6-0 SU & ATS in their last 6 meetings with MAC teams. Two years ago the Cats went just 2-10 on the season, while Kent State went 11-3 that year still the Cats beat the Golden Flashes by 33 points that year and this year’s version of Kentucky football is much better. Ohio escaped with a 17-14 win over rival Kent State last week, as 4 TOs by the Bobcats kept the Golden Flashes in the game. Kentucky forced 5 TO’s in their opener vs UT- Martin and could force a few more here. The Cats have outscored MAC foes by 18 ppg in the last 6 meetings should win by at least that much here as well.
Stanford/ USC Under 54: USC is now a high powered uptempo offense, but Stanford knows how to combat that as they have done it very well vs Oregon the last 2 years. This Stanford defense is very stout and on offense they will really take the air out of the ball as they have done vs Oregon the last 2 years. USC is not all about offense either as they come in with what has been rated as the best defense in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the nation. Stanford will really look to pound the ball at USC and try and wear the Trojans down late in the game and that kind of ball control offense will also keep the ball out of the USC offense. That offense ran 103 plays last week, but I don't see them coming close to that in this one as they just won't have as many opportunities as they had last week vs a Fresno State team that also runs uptempo. The last two years these teams put up just 35 and 37 points, while Stanford's last two meeting vs a similar offense in Oregon the games put up just 46 and 31 points. This game should be a defensive battle for the most part and should be kept in the low 40s at best.
Boise State/ Colorado State Under 56: Really see this as a low scoring game. Watching the Broncos last week it is clear that their defense is way ahead of their offense so far and the defense for the Broncos is usually overlooked, because of having such high powered offenses. Granted their offense did face a tough SEC defense last week, but they will be taking on a Colorado State defense that looks to be very good this year with 7 starters back and they did allow just 17 points to Colorado last week. The defense for the Broncos really played good for much of their game vs the Rebels last week, before the 4th quarter and I expect them to have another solid showing in this one. This is a huge early season game in the MWC and those tend to be played a bit closer to the vest and I expect that here.
BEST OF THE REST
NEW MEXICO +25 over Arizona State: I really like New Mexico in this one. The Sun Devils had a rather easy opening win vs Weber State, but I see this as a slight look-a-head spot for them, as they have their Pac-12 opener on deck next week. Also I expect the Sun Devils having a problem keeping the lobos from piling up the yards on the ground. Last week they rushed for 410 yards and that rushing offense will do two things for them in this game. 1st it will allow them to control the clock and limit the number of possessions that ASU will have and 2nd it will help them put up enough points to keep ASU from running away from this one. Bob Davie has done a nice job recruiting here and it has helped in their depth. The Lobos did lose at home last week to UTEP, but still I just don’t see ASU being able to run away with this game. I would say a 17 point win at best here.
Oklahoma/ Tulsa Over 57.5: Both teams play at an uptempo pace and that should mean plenty of scoring chances for both teams. The Sooners put up 48 points on Louisiana Tech last week and should have similar success vs a Tulsa defense that allowed 33.9 ppg last year and started out this year by allowing a rather pedestrian Tulane squad 515 yards of total offense. The Tulsa offense looked good last week and while this will be a much tougher defense that they will face, they should be able to put up 17+ points in this one. Oklahoma has scored 45, 47 and 51 points in the last 3 meetings and I expect at least 45 from them here, while the Golden Hurricane should hit the 17 point mark. I look for at least 62 points in this one. Yes
Air Force/ Wyoming Under 51: The Under is 6-1 the last 7 in this series. The Air Force offense looks to be solid and is always tough to stop, but its not like Wyoming has never seen their offense before and they have have allowed Air Force just 20.1 ppg in the last 7 meetings. Air Force can score points, but are also a pure running team which will eat clock as well. Wyoming had a very good offense last year, but super QB Brett Smith is gone and that will make them a bit more pedestrian this year. They showed that already by scoring just 17 points vs FCS foe Montana in their opener. Both teams have 9 starters back on the defensive side of the ball and that should be the strength of both teams. At least it will in this game. Lower 40s at best here.
LineCatchers
Atlanta Braves - 114
The Atlanta Braves are currently one game back of the Brewers for 2nd spot in the NL wildcard race. After losing to the Marlins on Friday night, the Braves will be determined to win this mini 3 games series 2-1 with wins today and Sunday. Atlanta has their best two starters going over the weekend in Alex Wood and Julio Teheran.
Braves lefty Alex Wood gets the nod tonight and he has been very consistent this season. He is 7-9 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 20 starts. Wood has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starts and opposing teams hit just .190 against Wood in the month of August.
The Braves are in a ‘Must-Win’ situation for the remainder of the season and will be looking at closing the 7 game gap between themselves and the Washington Nationals for 1st place in the NL East.
Miami sends Nathan Eovaldi to the mound tonight and the righty has struggled in 15 starts in South Beach in 2014. He is 3-5 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in those starts at Marlins Park. Eovaldi has allowed 11 ER over his last 15 IP with opponents hitting well over .300 against him since mid-August.