Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 7

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB Picks

Detroit at Kansas City

The Royals look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 0-5 in Justin Verlander's last 5 starts as a favorite. Kansas City is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115)

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Hellweg) 14.437; Cubs (Arrieta) 16.019
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-130); N/A

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.904; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.970
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Over

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 16.491; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 13.954
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Over

Game 957-958: Washington at Miami (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 14.430; Miami (Eovaldi) 15.592
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100); Under

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.123; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.123
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+150); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 13.925; San Diego (Ross) 15.400
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over

Game 963-964: Arizona at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 13.989; San Francisco (Cain) 15.418
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Over

Game 965-966: Boston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.293; NY Yankees (Huff) 17.281
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+115); Under

Game 967-968: Houston at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.172; Oakland (Straily) 14.564
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+190); Under

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Santiago) 14.494; Baltimore (Chen) 15.874
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-180); Over

Game 971-972: Detroit at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.177; Kansas City (Duffy) 16.214
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under

Game 973-774: Toronto at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 14.271; Minnesota (Correia) 15.753
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Over

Game 975-976: Texas at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.290; LA Angels (Richards) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.538; Seattle (Paxton) 15.632
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Over

Game 979-980: NY Mets at Cleveland (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.867; Cleveland (Kluber) 14.973
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+140); Under

CFL

BC at Hamilton
The Tiger-Cats look to take advantage of a BC team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games. Hamilton is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton

Game 493-494: BC at Hamilton (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 113.900; Hamilton 116.661
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Pick; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton; Over

WNBA

Minnesota at Seattle
The Storm look to bounce back from their 97-74 loss to the Lynx last Saturday and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following an ATS defeat. Seattle is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7 1/2)

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 101.038; Indiana 115.219
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14; 135
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 11 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-11 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Minnesota at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.395; Seattle 117.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7 1/2); Over

Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame vs. MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 52FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame’s offense did put-up a lot of yards on Temple last week, but that was expected. But the fact the Irish did not convert those yards into points is troublesome, especially against an inferior opponent. The Irish are taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, and with the way Michigan’s defense played last week, it’s hard to envision Notre Dame scoring a lot of points.
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Michigan’s offense had it easy last week against a terrible defense. But the Wolverines will face a stout Notre Dame stop unit in this game. QB Devin Gardner cannot be careless with the ball (2 interceptions vs. Central Michigan) and get away with it against the Irish. Despite looking so good last week, we expect Michigan’s offense to stall against the Irish.
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Irish HC Brian Kelly knows he doesn’t have the firepower to trade points with Michigan, so we expect to see a conservative game plan from the road underdog. Notre Dame will have to win this game with ball control and defense, and because of that, we’ll recommend playing Notre Dame and Michigan Under the total on Saturday night.

Jason SharpeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan -3.5 over Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Emotions are always high when these two top rivals square off but expect them to be even higher here in this one as Notre Dame and Michigan will end their longstanding series against one another after this contest.
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The Wolverines will be looking for revenge after a tough loss last season in South Bend. Denard Robinson played arguably the worst game of his illustrious career, throwing four interceptions while helping gift wrap a 13-6 win for the Fighting Irish last year. This looks to be the best team 3rd year head coach Brady Hoke has had so far at Michigan and we caught a glimpse of that last weekend when Michigan routed Central Michigan by a 59-9 score. Hoke has yet to lose a game at the ‘Big House” thus far and he will have his team playing with revenge here in this one.
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Last year it was Notre Dame who played this game with a chip on their shoulder as they had dropped three straight games to Michigan coming into that contest. The Irish are a different team than last year and don’t look to be nearly as strong in two very key spots. They lost their quarterback from last season, a huge loss as Everett Golson really looked like he was turning into a top notch signal caller by the end of last season. The Notre Dame defense is also nowhere near the same as last year’s version and we seen that in their season opener as a below average Temple offense gashed them for 4.6 yards per carry and close to 400 yards of total offense.
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The home team in this series has dominated of late winning five of the last six times overall. Add in the revenge factor plus what should also be a fired up Michigan squad after ND coach Brian Kelly downplayed this series to the media earlier this week. Take Michigan minus the points here. I nailed another CFB Game of the Month last week, my fifth big play winner in my last six overall as Washington hammered Boise State in a no-doubt winner by a 38-6 score. I am coming back again this week with another CFB Game of the Month selection this time for the month of September. Things are at their easiest this time of the year and I will look to take advantage of a game that I am in love with. I expect another easy blowout win in this contest.

Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo / Baylor Over 66FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am never in love with playing OVER on a game with a number as high as this one. In fact so much so that I can't remember the last time that I did. But this one at least qualifies as a Heavy Petter and good enough for a 2% Play. Handicapping Totals in College Sports is so much different than any other sport and as usual I am not spilling all the beans as to how I landed on 71.1 for this one. However, we can talk about a number of things including the fact that Baylor is not likely to miss a beat this year. This game opened at 64 at Cris/BM and Nobody was able to get that line unless they were right there at their Internet Machine because in about 1 Minute it moved to what it is right now, 66. I doubt that Brice Petty will ever be know as BP1 but this guy has waited a long time to play behind RG3 and he is making the most of it. What he has to work with this year is a HUGE Offensive Line and a very talented one. Baylor should not miss a beat this year and while scoring 69 verses Wofford is not absolutely a Deal Maker, this team is going to score a lot of points this year. Their D remains mediocre at best though, maybe slightly improved over a year ago. The problem with Baylor is that the offense attacks so viciously that the D does not get the proper amount of time to catch their breath. That is why the last 6 games they have played have topped the 72 Point Mark or more, often much more. It's all about a pattern and this is Baylor's pattern. This 66 happens to be one of the lowest totals for any Baylor Games recently and it does present itself with value. I am going to play.

Rob VenoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington St / USC Over 53FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The reaction here is quite obvious as linemakers tell you that they have little respect for USC’s quarterback play but an abundance of it for their defense. In Week 1 against an absolutely punchless Hawaii offense, the total opened 53 and closed 52. Hawaii head coach Norm Chow fired offensive coordinator Aaron Price at the beginning of August camp right as he was transitioning the team from a pro style to a pass heavy, spread offense. The Rainbow Warriors were in a bit of disarray during practices and it carried over in their first game. Washington State is now in the second season of Mike Leach’s offense and although quarterback Connor Halliday showed some poor decision making in the fourth quarter last week, the Cougars are light years ahead of Hawaii where offensive potency is concerned. USC also played without its top running back Silas Redd but he’s expected to play this week. Is USC’s defense as good as it looked last week? Will the quarterback play not get any better with the weapons available? Was Lane Kiffin showing all his cards as a 24-point non-conference favorite with the PAC-12 home opener on deck? Should this game really be totaled the same as the USC-Hawaii game? This line has enough overreaction in it for me to go ahead and recommend a bet on the OVER 53.

River City SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toledo Rockets at Missouri TigersFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toledo Rockets +17FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Missouri HC Gary Pinkel will face his former school Saturday when Toledo comes calling. The Tigers are fresh off a 58-14 drubbing of Murray State while the Rockets made a respectable showing of themselves in Gainesville in a 24-6 loss to the Gators. Missouri looks to be one of the most improved teams in the SEC and are led by QB James Franklin. There should be a lot of points scored here and I think that Toledo will find it much easier to move the ball against the Missouri defense than the Gators. Toledo is a pretty good football team and Missouri is going to get their best shot on Saturday. We also expect Toledo Senior QB Terrance Owens to settle down and play much better this week. Missouri wins the game, but Toledo keeps it within two touchdowns.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. Brigham YoungFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am typically not one to lay chalk on the road but I will be making an exception here. Early in the season, we can catch some softer lines as even the linesmakers are still making assumptions and not going by numbers yet. I feel this is the case with Texas. The home underdog is always a first look for me but sometimes talent trumps that and the Longhorns have the talent advantage at nearly every position against BYU. They are coming off a lopsided win over New Mexico St. as they won by 49 points while outgaining the Aggies by 369 total yards. Surprisingly, it was a 14-7 score at halftime before Texas put down the hammer and ran away with the game, literally. The Longhorns rushed for 359 yards on 42 carries (8.5 ypc) and this is a unit that will be tough to stop here as well. Three turnovers are the reason Texas started slow last Saturday so avoiding those and BYU will be playing catch-up all night. The Longhorns are no joke this year as they have 19 starters back from last season and they try to regain a rise to prominence. The Cougars are coming off a tough loss in their opening game at Virginia so they will be out to avoid a 0-2 start but sometimes that is simply unavoidable. The defense looked great while the offense sputtered but I am not sold at all on the former. The BYU defense last season was excellent and while it still has outstanding linebacker Kyle Van Noy, the unit has just four starters back and played a Virginia offense that was weak to begin with. Things will be much tougher this week. On offense, quarterback Taysom Hill did not get his career started very good as he went 13-for-40 for 175 yards, one touchdown and an interception in the opener. The offensive line struggled against the Cavaliers defensive front and it won't be any easier against the Texas line. I am expecting the offense to struggle again this week. BYU has been exceptional of late when coming off a loss but this is a different BYU team. This is also a different Texas team than we have seen in recent years and as stated early, this one comes down to talent and the Longhorns get after it early and don't look back.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose St. at StanfordFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two star quarterbacks will be featured in this game. Stanford (0-0) returns sophomore QB Kevin Hogan who was 5-0 as a starter when he took over behind center last season and those wins include four that were in the top-25. The dual-threat QB should have a big day against a retooling Spartans defense that returns only five starters including one in their defensive backfield. San Jose State (1-0) will really miss defensive ends Travis Johnson and David Tuitupuo who graduated this season. Tuitupuo was 2nd team All-WAC while Johnson was the conference's Defensive Player of the Year. This defense is making the transition from the 4-3 to the 3-4 which makes this early contest against the stout Cardinal offense particularly challenging. But San Jose State has senior QB David Fales to rely on who led the nation by completing 72.5% of his passes while tossing 33 TD passes. Led by Noel Grigsby who has caught 171 balls over the last two seasons, his wide receiving corps has over 500 career receptions. The Spartans opened their season with a 24-0 win against Sacramento State and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total following a victory. San Jose State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing less then three touchdowns. This team has also played 4 straight road games Over the Total. Lastly, Stanford has played 17 of their last 25 games at home Over the Total. Take the Over in this one.

Alex Smart SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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South Carolina State vs. ClemsonFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: South Carolina State +52.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Clemson enters this contest off a grueling back and forth war with the Georgia Bulldogs last week, winning by a 38-35 . Now in a letdown situation, and looking ahead to bigger games vs far superior opposition, the Tigers Im betting will rest alot of starters for good portions of this tilt and give some of their young talent more time on the field. The door is open for a extremely less talented opponent to stick a few points on the board and get the cover this Saturday. I know betting against Clemson will take some courage, but the underdog number looks viable enough to have me recommending we take the points via small stake wager. With that said, take a deep breath and throw a few bucks at this side proposition. South Carolina State to cover

Allen EastmanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State (-24) over Eastern MichiganFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There won't be a letdown out of this Nittany Lions team. They are playing their home opener after a big win over Syracuse in New York City last weekend. The Nittany Lions rallied behind their freshman quarterback, and they made all the plays they had to in order to get that win. Penn State has won eight of its last 10 games, and they are 7-2-1 ATS in those games under coach Bill O'Brien. Eastern Michigan struggled with FCS team Howard last week. EMU won just 34-24, and they are stepping way up in class. EMU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games, and they lost 54-16 last year when they went on the road and faced Purdue. Eastern is 0-31 against Big Ten schools, and their last four losses have been by an average of 28 points per game. Penn State will be able to run the ball against one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation from last year. I think that Penn State wins 56-10, and this one is a blowout. The Nittany Lions have a big game next week, so they will want to put this one away early and then get the starters some rest. Take the home team.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida vs. MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When these two teams last played in ’08, the game was no contest: a 26-3 Gators win, with Miami held to just 140 yards of total offense. Miami was a 24 point underdog at the closing number, and Hurricane backers got the money when they lost by only 23.
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Florida’s defense may be every bit as good this year. They completely stifled a pretty good Toledo offense last week, holding the Rockets to 12 first downs, 205 total yards and two field goals for the game. The Gators were playing without suspended defenders LB Antonio Morrison, DT Darious Cummings and CB Loucheiz Purifoy in that contest, all of whom are expected to suit up this week.
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That could be bad news for a Miami offense that did not look sharp in their home opener against Florida Atlantic last weekend. The Hurricanes ran the ball effectively all evening, but senior QB Stephen Morris wasn’t clicking with his receivers, a modest 15-27 for 160 yards with one TD and one interception. Head coach Al Golden: “We have to throw and catch better. We weren't as sharp as we need to be and that's it. No excuses. We protected well, except for one time, but other than that we have to throw and catch the ball better. We have to be more precise in our routes.”
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The Gators have plenty of offensive concerns of their own. When Florida last won the national title following the 2008 season, their offense averaged more than 43 points per game. In Will Muschamp’s first two years as Florida’s head coach, the Gators averaged under 27 points per game in both seasons. Last week against Toledo, the offense continually sputtered: four ‘three and outs’ and two potential scoring drives stopped in the red zone.
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Florida’s biggest offensive problem has been their lack of explosive playmakers – this team simply isn’t scoring many quick strike touchdowns these days. They didn’t have a single 30+ yard play against a MAC defense last week, executing long, plodding drives instead of short, explosive ones. RB Matt Jones is back from his one game suspension this week, but the real culprit here is the Jeff Driskel led passing game.
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Driskel was the #1 rated QB recruit in the country when he arrived in Gainesville, but in a year and a half as the starter, he’s yet to live up to those enormous expectations. The numbers don’t lie. He started 12 games as a sophomore last year, but finished the season with only 12 TD passes and 1600 passing yards, bottom tier numbers. It’s surely worth noting that Driskel struggled repeatedly on the highway last year, reaching 200 passing yards and throwing for more than one TD only once in their six games outside of the Swamp.
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Yes, there is plenty of skill position talent on the field, but neither offense can be described as ‘explosive’ these days, and both defenses have every bit as much size and speed as their counterparts on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Expect a relatively plodding, hard hitting low scoring affair that stays Under the total.

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HOUSTON (-3) over TempleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The schedule-maker didn’t do new Owls head man Matt Rhule any favors by sending Temple to Notre Dame in Week 1. The Owls will struggle this year playing with their 3rd head coach in 4 years and this is a natural letdown spot. Houston, on the other hand, is in a great situation. After dismantling Southern, 62-13, in Week 1, the Cougars have a bye next week, which means they were able to spend plenty of the preseason game-planning for Temple. Lay the short number on the road.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas State vs. AuburnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Arkansas StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Welcome to the ‘Track Meet Game of the Week’ where anything less than 1,000 total yards would come as a surprise. Today’s matchup is actually quite interesting, pitting new Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn against his former team although Malzahn skipped out of Jonesboro after only one season at the helm.His replacement, Bryan Harsin, enjoyed an impressive debut with a 62-11 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Red Wolves overwhelmed the Golden Lions in the stats, piling up an amazing 672 yards compared to just 173 for their opponent. Auburn’s first game under Malzahn was not as statistically rewarding and with three SEC revengers up next (MSU, Ole Miss and LSU), we’re not interested in coaxing a better performance out of Aubbie today. In fact, in the two years since the Tigers beat Oregon for the BCS Championship, the hosts have struggled to a 12-14 SU and 8-16 ATS record while ASU has posted superior marks of 21-6 SU and 17-7 ATS. With that, we just talked ourselves into backing the pack on the plains today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arkansas State.

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Kentucky Wildcats -17FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite the loss there is reason to be optimistic about last week’s game against a talented Western Kentucky team. Kentucky’s offense put up 419 yards of total offense. They got a solid performance out of sophomore quarterback Maxwell Smith and as a team they finished with an impressive 216 yards rushing. Their ability to run the football should come into play against a Redhawks defense that just allowed Marshall to rush for 304 yards.
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The other thing to keep in mind is that Miami managed just 239 yards of total offense against a Marshall defense that allowed 43.1 ppg and 457 yards of total offense per game last year. Now I understand the Thundering Herd are greatly improved on that side of the ball, but they aren’t that good. As expected the Redhawks offense is greatly missing the play of departed quarterback Zac Dysert, who was by far their best player last year. His replacement, Austin Boucher, was just 10 of 22 for 165 yards with a touchdown and interception.
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As bad as Kentucky has been the past few years, they haven’t had much trouble against teams from the MAC. Last year they annihilated Kent State at home 47-14 as a 6-point favorite. The same Kent State team that went on to play in the MAC Championship Game. The year before they knocked off a good Central Michigan team 27-13 as a 10-point favorite and in 2010 they rolled over Akron 47-10 as a 24-point favorite. The Wildcats are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS vs MAC opponents over the last 4 years and have won these contest by an average score of 41-9!