Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami, FL +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Another September SEC v. ACC matchup. The Hurricanes can draw hope from Clemson's home dog victory v. Georgia last Saturday night. Never easy to fade the superior defense in a win situation, but I will offer some support for the Hurricanes at this price. Florida again struggled on offense in their opener last Saturday, a 24-6 win, no cover against Toledo. They did, however, dominate the Rockets overland 262-50 and controlled the clock 40-20. But the Miami Fla offense proved that it is a force with which opponents must reckon. 18 RS make them one of the most experienced teams of the year for 3rd year HC Golden. The Canes got a confidence building boost with 503 offensive yards in the 34-6 win, no cover v. Fla. Atlantic. But Golden's teams have been just that as indicated by his Underdog record of 9-3 ATS in that role in 2 years with Miami and 18-8 ATS as short L5Y dating to his tenure at Temple. ACC pulls another upset against the vaunted SEC.
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Buffalo at BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Baylor -27FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo was able to generate more than expected against Ohio State last week. But, the Buckeyes showed a lot of the same a year ago vs. bad teams. They beat Indiana by just 3 as a 19-point favorite, struggled to a 29-15 win over UAB as a 35.5-point favorite, and needed OT vs. Purdue as a 17-point favorite. So, I'm not putting a lot into that game. The Baylor offense is a system, and Bryce Petty will put up big numbers for the Bears. Baylor went for nearly 700 yards last week, and have shown a penchant to do that to lesser skilled teams, so a repeat is not out of the question at home vs. Buffalo. This is not the type of versatile offense that the Bulls are accustomed to seeing in the MAC. The one exception may be Northern Illinois, who beat them by 42 points last year. This is where Baylor is different than Ohio State, as the Bears are 14-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record. They are also 12-2 ATS the past couple of seasons at home. Under Art Briles, Baylor is 18-8 ATS as a favorite. Play this one on Baylor.
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Arkansas St @ AuburnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arkansas St +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line opened up at 6 and shot up like a rocket. Have no illusions, Auburn did not impress me last week, and Arkansas State, a team I saw play Nebraska in 2012 in person and give the Huskers fits, does impress me. The Red Wolves have an impressive offense led by Utah State transfer QB Kennedy and also a returning RB who had over 1000 yards last year in Oku. Auburns defense allowed almost 500 yards to a weak Washington State team last week in a 7 point win, and now lay a big number to a Red Wolves team who is capable of an upset here if the Tigers overlook them.
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Sometimes you have to look past the big names and past accomplishments, and look at the right here, right scenario. If you think different ask Kansas State, Oregon State and South Florida, all whom were beat last week by basically Division II Schools. Auburn’s offense is dull and predictable and not sure they will dominate a veteran and good front 7 of Arkansas St with their run game on Saturday and I give the Red Wolves every chance to make this a 3 to 7 point contest, and rest assured Arky St will put up some points with a solid offense. This Red Wolves team was 10-3 SU last year and beat a decent Kent St team in a Bowl Game, and are 8-1 ATS their last 9 lined games. Bear in mind also Arkansas State is playing their ex head coach in this game who left the program without warning which provides some added incentive for the visitors
FezzikFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington St / USC Over 53FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC left some points on the board due to some poor execution, dumb penalties, and communication issues against Hawaii. Look for a big improvement in their offense this week. Washington State should be much more adept offensively as this team adjusts to Year 2 of Mike Leach's schemes. Connor Holliday tossed 65 passes for the Cougars in Auburn last week. The ball will be in the air, the clock will stop, and another 88 play game is not out of the question for Wazzou. That gives both teams a lot of chances to score some points. Both teams offenses' are poised to be over their opening week jitters as we look for the over here.
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Idaho vs. WyomingFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Idaho +28.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I know this is not an exciting match up, but Wyoming was in a big game against Nebraska a week ago in the 34-31 loss and I guarantee the spread would not have been 28 points if Idaho did not turn around and lose big to North Texas in a blow out. I think we get value here with 4 TD spread. Idaho is stronger where it matters than we saw last week with depth along the defensive line that could get to QB Brett Smith. Well they have to actually and I expect a lot more aggressive play because their secondary lacks a lot of athleticism. Meanwhile Wyoming struggles against the run and Idaho can run the ball with the read option and at least shorten the game. Chad Chalich understands the offense at QB and he does not make a ton of mistakes which is what you look for with a team catching 28 points as a dog. Also Idaho's offensive line is again stronger than people think based on last week's game and I expect them to come out and play an overall more competitive game with a chance to even pull out the victory.
Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah State vs. Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We cashed a 10* ticket with the 'over' in Utah State's season-opening loss to rival Utah last Thursday night, but we'll switch gears here, as we deal with a higher total against a weaker opponent.
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Aggies do-everything QB Chuckie Keeton threw the ball 40 times in last week's loss. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Utah State doesn't want Keeton slinging it around that many times per game. Look for the Aggies to make a concerted effort to get their ground game, and namely RB Joe Hill going this week against Air Force, chewing up plenty of clock in the process.
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Air Force certainly isn't known for its defensive prowess, but does return an experienced group, particularly in the secondary and should do just enough to keep this one competitive in front of the home faithful.
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In last week's analysis I noted that Utah State's defense took a hit due to offseason losses, but save for a couple of early lapses, I thought the Aggies stop unit held up fairly well against Utah. They'll have to make some major adjustments this week as they prepare to face Air Force's option-based offense, but they do catch a break with the Falcons losing starting QB Kale Pearson to an ACL injury last week. The Falcons are talking the talk when it comes to his replacement, Jaleel Awini, but I'm not convinced he's a great fit in this offense. That was evident last week as he ran the ball only twice for negative three yards in the win over Colgate.
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Air Force is looking to focus more on its ground game this year, and that's really out of necessity with little experience under center (even when Pearson was healthy). We should see a heavy dose of the Falcons running game here, and a similar gameplan from the Aggies. This total has been on the way down all week, and for good reason.
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Oklahoma State -26FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys are one of the favorites to win the Big 12 in 2013 due to the returning talent and experience they have coming back from last year’s 8-5 team. This is a squad that returned 15 starters, including eight on offense from a unit that put up a ridiculous 45.7 points and 547 total yards per game a year ago. After a 21-3 victory over Mississippi State in the opener, it’s clear that the Cowboys can play a little defense this year, too.
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Oklahoma State outgained Mississippi State 432-333 for the game. The defense limited the Bulldogs to a first quarter field goal, shutting them out the rest of the way. They did so by holding them to just 2-for-16 on third down conversions. While many believe the Cowboys are a pass-happy team, they proved that they could run it, too. Oklahoma State compiled 286 rushing yards while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Quarterback J.W. Walsh threw for 135 yards and rushed for 125 more and a score.
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Texas-San Antonio is in just its second season as a member of the FBS. It went 8-4 last year, but only played a handful of teams from the FBS. In their four toughest games last season, the Roadrunners’ true colors showed. They lost to Rice (14-34), San Jose State (24-52), Utah State (17-48) and Louisiana Tech (27-51). Oklahoma State is clearly a better team than all four of those schools and should have no problem covering this 26-point spread.
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Mike Gundy is 44-18 against the spread as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 5-1 against the number in their last six games overall. Oklahoma State is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
Doug UpstoneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. New Mexico StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota -14½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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PLAY AGAINST a home team like New Mexico State in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, against opponent in the first month of the season (Minnesota in this case) who was bowl team from prior season, who lost their last three games a year ago. In the last two decades, this system is 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent)
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma -21FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Most of West Virginia’s top players from the Air Raid offense are gone. Without Geno Smith under center, this looks like a team that will struggle for most of the season. The Mountaineers also lost receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Baily. Their quick scoring ability is non-existent this season, and they will have to rely heavily on the ground attack. That could be a major issue against an Oklahoma defense that features a strong linebacking core, and a top-notch secondary.
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In week one the Sooners held a solid ULM team scoreless in a 34-0 blowout. Oklahoma is facing a West Virginia defense that was third worst in the nation against the pass, and allowed 38.1 points per game. The Sooners have two dual threat quarterbacks between Trevor Knight and Blake Bell. Knight led the team in rushing with 13 carries for 103 yards, and he also passed for three touchdowns last week. He should have an even better performance this week against a Mountaineers secondary that allowed FCS opponent William & Mary to complete 67% of their passes, and throw for over 200 yards in week one.
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame vs. MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan (.735) owns a slight lead on Notre Dame (.734), as these two programs have the highest winning percentages in college football history...
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Notre Dame canceled its scheduled dates with Michigan from 2015-17, something the school claimed was a result of its five-games-per-year entrance into the ACC starting in 2014. However, the Wolverines made it clear that the Irish were solely responsible for the at-least-temporary end to the series, which began in 1887 and has been played annually since 2002. Coach Brady Hoke took things a bit further in May by telling a Grand Rapids luncheon panel that Notre Dame was "chickening out of" the rivalry. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly got a lot of attention this past Sunday for saying he didn't think of Michigan as one of Notre Dame's traditional rivals, a statement he backed off a few days later.
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So now that all the “nonsense” is out of the way, the game will be played Saturday night at 8:00 ET, with ABC on hand to carry the festivities. This is an underdog driven series, as the favorite is just 3-14 ATS the last 17 meetings and there have been NINE outright upsets the last 13 years. Michigan is the small favorite here and I should note that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six meetings. That bodes well for Michigan, which opened the 2013 season with the nation’s longest-active home winning streak of 14 in a row (since the arrival of Brady Hoke).
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Michigan hasn't lost at home since a 48-28 defeat to then-No. 6 Wisconsin (on Nov. 20, 2010) and Michigan had averaged 38.4 PPG during its home winning streak, before blowing out Central Michigan 59-9 last Saturday, extending its home winning streak to 15 in a row. Notre Dame won 13-6 last season in South Bend, while forcing six turnovers. However, the Wolverines have won three straight at home in the series, including a 35-31 thriller two years ago that was the first night game-ever at Michigan Stadium.
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Tommy Rees was the starter at Michigan Stadium in 2011 (as he will be again here due to Everett Golson's ineligibility), going 27 of 39 for 315 yards with three TDs. However, the Irish blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in that one and Rees’ three turnovers (a fumble and two INTs), came back to haunt Notre Dame (two of his TOs came in the red zone). Notre Dame racked up 543 yards of offense in beating Temple last Saturday but the final score was just 28-6. Rees looked sharp, passing for 346 yards and three TDs against the Owls, in his first game since regaining the starting job.
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These two programs have the highest winning percentages in college football history, as Michigan (.735) owns a slight lead on Notre Dame (.734), and I’m counting on the revenge motive being HUGE in this one, especially since it could be the last time Notre Dame visits Michigan Stadium. Hoke’s won all 15 home games since taking the Michigan job and and just THREE of those victories have come by six points or less. I’m going against the underdog trend in this series and will take Michigan.
Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois +7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two had dichotomous results last week which will result in line value for the home dog Illini at a value price. Under first year HC Tuberville, Cincinnati thrashed Purdue 42-7 in opening weekend covering by 25 pts. They profited from 7 Purdue TOs while outgaining the Boilers 425-226, using a balanced offense that ran and passed for at least 204 yards. Far more was expected from Illinois in their 42-34 opening day win, no cover v. S. Ill. The Illini turned the ball over 4 times and allowed Salukies 407 yards. In so doing, they failed to cover the number by 13 pts. setting up a net of +40 AFP in this game. Well aware of the struggles of Illinois, under 2d year HC Beckman, as in his tenure, they are now on a run of 0-10 SU, 1-9 ATS. Having hit the nadir of their discontent, look for Illinois to get a much needed victory. Upset no surprise to this bureau.
Ross BenjaminFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon @ VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oregon -23FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I came to a definitive conclusion when watching the BYU/Virginia game last week. Both offenses were so awful that they made the opposing defenses look much better than they really are. The other conclusion I arrived at last Saturday was the Oregon Ducks are just as dynamic offensively as they've been in recent years. As a matter of fact the Ducks defense may be the best it's been over the last 5 seasons. This is a horrible matchup for the Cavaliers. I hate laying any points on the road let alone this many. However, barring an Oregon collapse this one has no chance of being closer than a 4-touchdown win by the visitors. Any non-conference away favorite of 28.0 or less, that has won 15 or more of their last 22 games, versus an opponent coming off a non-conference home underdog straight up win is 9-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1980 season. The away favorite won those 9 games by an average of 28.9 points per game.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) over Wake Forest
Two even squads face off in Chestnut Hill tonight but we will lean to the home team who knows that this is one of the few winnable games on their schedule. BC faces USC & Florida State the next two weeks and are going to get their asses kicked bu those two powerhouse programs so we look for the Eagles to play with a sense of urgency that was missing in their week 1 win over Villanova. Wake beat up on one of the weakest programs in the country last week, Presbetarian, but Wake senior quarterback Tanner Price was only 14 of 25. Price is a 3 year starter who has not improved over his career. Boston college also has a 3 year starting quarterback in Chase Rettig who has struggled in the past but who we think will be much improved this year. Eagles need it and get it versus the Deamon Deacons tonight.
Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas at BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas was a little sluggish last weekend, before turning up the heat in a 56-7 win over New Mexico State. The Longhorns finished with over 700 yards of offense. But I'm not sold on Texas being the contender many think they are...at least not yet. Texas will face a BYU team off a loss at Virginia last weekend. The Cougars dropped a 19-16 decision and were as much affected by the poor weather conditions as they were the Cavaliers. BYU held Virginia to 223 yards of total offense on about 3 yards per play. Not per rush...but per play! The Cougars will also be better in the passing game this week with the return of potential NFL-er, WR Cody Hoffman who missed last week's opener due to a hamstring injury. These programs met two years ago in Austin and Texas escaped with a 17-16 win. I expect this meeting to go right to the wire, also. I'm grabbing the points with Texas on Saturday.
Jim Feist
South Carolina vs. Georgia
Play: South Carolina +3½
South Carolina ripped Georgia, 35-7, last year, and has a loaded team for Steve Spurrier. The Gamecocks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on grass. Spurrier ripped his defense for not being in shape last week....as they held high powered North Carolina to just 10 points! "Did you watch what I was watching?" he said when asked about Clowney. “We'll try + work on our conditioning for the entire team." Georgia may have home field but the Dawgs have a lot of problems, allowing 4 sacks in last week's loss to Clemson, WR Malcolm Mitchell (572 yds in 2012) hurt his knee and is lost for the season, plus there are only 3 starters back on defense and Clemson shredded them. The Bulldogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.