Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday September, 8

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
The Cubs look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 0-5 in James McDonald's last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. Chicago is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+155)

Game 901-902: Miami at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Buehrle) 15.354; Washington (Detwiler) 15.756
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under

Game 903-904: Atlanta at NY Mets (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 14.943; NY Mets (Hefner) 16.012
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+145); Over

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 14.410; San Francisco (Cain) 14.908
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under

Game 907-908: Colorado at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 16.683; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.275
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+190); Over

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 14.310; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 13.808
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135); Over

Game 911-912: Houston at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.945; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.245
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-230); Under

Game 913-914: Milwaukee at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Fiers) 15.552; St. Louis (Westbrook) 14.461
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Over

Game 915-916: Arizona at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 16.652; San Diego (Kelly) 15.232
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.338; White Sox (Sale) 14.811
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+180); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.182; Baltimore (Saunders) 14.636
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155); Under

Game 921-922: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 14.998; Boston (Matsuzaka) 13.953
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.176; Minnesota (De Vries) 14.556
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.401; Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.831
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.192; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.669
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 929-930: Oakland at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 16.044; Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.334
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under

WNBA

Seattle at Tulsa
The Shock look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games against a team with a losing SU record. Tulsa is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6 1/2)

Game 601-602: Seattle at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 110.216; Tulsa 108.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 6 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6 1/2); Over

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Washington vs. LSUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: LSU -23½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU (-44) defeated North Texas 41-14 last Saturday night in Baton Rouge. But, there were some issues that came to the surface for HC Les Miles. On the positive side, the Tigers gashed NT for 316 rushing yards (6.9). Overall, LSU produced 508 yards, their highest output since 2007. QB Zack Mettenberger (19/26/2/1) was formidable, but was susceptible to blitzing tactics. The Tigers defense held the NT running game to just 2 yards (76) per carry. Last week at CenturyLink Field, PAC-12 Washington (-16) defeated MWC entry San Diego State 21-12. The Huskies attack took advantage of the SDS defensive line that averages around 250 pounds allowing QB Keith Price (25/35/222) time to throw. The game changers saw Washington (13 returning starters) pick up a fumble and interception that led to two scores. The Huskies did suffer key injuries at tackle and running back, so the task Saturday, seems more challenging that first expected. Last year, the Washington offense was held to under 100 yards in both the USC and Oregon games. Granted, QB Price has solid receivers with height in Jenkins and Williams, so I expect they will do damage, but scoring? In 2009 at Seattle the Tigers (-17) defeated the Huskies 31-23. The Tigers finished 9-4 SU, while the Huskies buckled at 5-7 SU. LSU has won 38 straight at home versus non-conference foes. Technically, LSU is 13-3 ATS at home when laying 24 or more in non-conference games. Forecast: LSU 38 Washington 10

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Idaho vs. Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Bowling Green -16FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bowling Green returned 18 starters from a squad that ended last season at 5-7 SU, including a solid 32-15 road win at Idaho. This year they'll get home field advantage as they host Idaho this Saturday after playing a solid game against the Florida Gators. Not only did BGSU cover the spread as 28 point Dogs, but they headed into the fourth quarter trailing by only a field goal, 17-14, before losing 27-14. Bowling Green played a solid game, out-passing the Gators, 226 to 145 passing yards, while also out first-downing them, 22 first downs compared to Florida's 14. Must lay the double digits with BGSU at home after posting those type of offensive numbers and expect them to score more than last year's 32 points on Idaho, as this Vandal's defense returned only 4 starters from last year's team that went 2-10 SU while allowing 33 points per game and already allowed East Washington to score 20 points last Thursday.

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Washington Huskies at LSU
Play: Washington Huskies
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5* graded play on Washington as they take on LSU set to start at 7:00 PM ET, September 8, 2012. Both teams are coming off wins and look to make it two straight. LSU, obviously, has a high probability of winning this game, but I think the finals score will be 10 or fewer points.
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Washington won 21-12 over San Diego State, but failed to cover as 12 point favorites. They ran the ball for 106 yards on 33 carries and passed for another 222 yards on 25-for-35 passing. LSU won their opener easily and as expected over North Texas, but failed to cover the mammoth 42 line. LSU rushed the ball for 316 yards on 46 carries and passed for another 192 yards on 19-for-26 passing.
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Washington's defense allowed a surprising 199 rushing yards on 40 attempts to the Aztecs. However, the Aztecs are a run dominated team and the Huskies held them to just 128 passing yards on 10 for -19 throwing and forced three turnovers. LSU allowed just 76 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 143 passing yards on 8-for-21 throwing and forced two turnovers.
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LSU quarterback Mettenberger was hammered in the first half for a sack and had to leave the game briefly. However, he was largely inconsistent against a vastly inferior secondary and missed easy read progressions on several plays. Perhaps, it was the big hit, that got his feet dancing all over and a tendency for him to throw to quickly once the ball was snapped. The Tigers did not need his heroics in this game, but Washington is goig to bring a far greater and more difficult test for the Tigers this week.
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The LSU defense was torched through the air for an 80-yard touchdown, which was one of just eight passes completed by Derek Thompson. It was on play action, which did have additional opportunities, but the Mean Green simply failed to execute the play.
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Do Not Allow 28 or more Points
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The number 28 comes frequently in College and Pro Football and is a pivot point of sorts for failure and success. for example, when LSU has scored 28 or more points in a game, they are 12-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 79-41 ATS since 1992. In past games where Washington has allowed 28 or more points, they are 6-9 ATS the past three seasons and 27-83 ATS since 1992.
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Do not Allow 300 or More Rushing Yards
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LSU head coach Les Miles has watched the movie Talladega Nights as he referenced his backfield and running game as shake and bake. Washington will have to contain the running game and force Mettenberger to beat them through the air. Note that in past games where Washington allowed 300 or rushing yards they are 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 3-15 ATS since 1992.
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Simulator Projections and Line Movements
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The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by 21 or fewer points. The public will be betting the Tigers enough to move this line to 24 and possibly even 24 as the week evolves. They will also falsely believe that this is one of those West Coast teams having to travel nearly across the country to play in a very hostile environment in baton Rouge. It is certainly true, that the atmosphere gets ?wild? in night games in the Bayou, but the line already has that factored in and more.
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There is no total listed as of yet, but my early lean is on the OVER. Be sure to visit the CFB thread for validation of all plays including a possible play on the OVER in this game. I am confident that Washington's offense will be able to execute time consuming scoring drives making this a very entertaining game.

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Oklahoma St. at ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the Total approaching 70, take the Under in the game between Oklahoma State and Arizona. The Cowboys' offense may look nearly invincible after accumulating 682 total yards in their 84-0 destruction of Savannah State but there is little to take from that contest against such an overmatched FCS opponent. Oklahoma State (1-0) will likely lean on their rushing game that averaged 9.4 YPC en route to gaining 395 rushing yards in that contest -- and that will keep the clock moving and decrease the number of offensive plays in this game. The Under is 8-3-2 in the Cowboys' last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. The Under is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in OSU's last 26 road contests. Arizona (1-0) showed off their offense by totaling 624 yards in the debut of head coach Rich Rodriguez and his spread offense to survive a 24-17 overtime win over Toledo last week. But what may be below the radar is that the Wildcats' defense held a potent Toledo offense that averaged 47.8 PPG in Mid-American Conference play last year to just 358 total yards. Rodriguez has reunited with his long-time defensive coordinator at West Virginia, Jeff Casteel, whose absence in RichRod's move to Michigan may help explain the Wolverines' disastrous experimentation with a 3-3-5 defense. If Arizona can slow down the Cowboys' offense just a little bit while relying on 5th year senior quarterback Matt Scott to manage the game and keep the Wildcats' offense on the field, this game will finish Under the number. Arizona has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from outside the Pac-12. Take the Under in this one.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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East Carolina vs. South Carolina
Pick: East Carolina
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The Gamecocks may have won their opener over Vanderbilt, but a lot of writers and sports analysts were not impressed with the margin of victory. I can't say that I was overly impressed, because I had the Gamecocks -7 and they failed to cover. That being said, they did go on the road and get a win over a top 25 ranked team, and Marcus Lattimore ran for 110 yards on 23 carries. This team has a stingy defense, and they can win games by running the football and shutting down their opponents.
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I was also very impressed with Steve Spurrier, who looks as though he has turned over a new leaf. This is not the same hot doggin', spread covering cowboy that coached in Florida so many years. Coach Spurrier seems content with his game plan of pounding his opponents with the run and winning close low scoring ball games behind his stellar defensive unit.
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While the Gamecocks should enjoy success running the football against the Pirates, their passing game is in serious doubt. Quarterback Connor Shaw sustained a shoulder injury in their win over the Commodores last week, and it was reported at mid-week that he couldn't even move his arm. He is officially listed as questionable, with a 50% chance of starting, but a zero percent chance of being 100% healthy. It won't matter who plays quarterback for the Gamecocks in this game, their job will be limited almost entirely to handing the football to Marcus Lattimore.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates are coming off a convincing win over Appalachian State in their opener, and they have a lot of things to be positive about coming into this game. First year starting quarterback Rio Johnson looks impressive taking over for Dominique Davis. He has a big target with tight/wide receiver Justin Jones who at 6'8" will be a nightmare matchup for the Gamecocks secondary. They will rely on their passing game to keep them in this ballgame, as they aren't likely to enjoy any success with the run.
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I think it is asking far too much of the Gamecocks to expect them to cover a spread of more than three touchdowns. I do think they are going to win the game, but if they build up a sizable lead, and that is a big if, you can expect Lattimore and the rest of the starters to ride the pine for the fourth quarter.
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Take East Carolina to cover.

Johnny DetroitFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami / Kansas St. Over 56FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last season Kansas State upset Miami 28-24 as 13-point underdogs. Last week the Hurricanes rolled over Boston College 41-32 and Kansas State smacked Missouri State 51-9. Despite the big win, Miami gave up 542 yards and committed 9 penalties for 78 yards. This game will be decided in a shoot-out with whoever has the ball last winning.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force vs. MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brady Hoke took over for Rich-Rod in Ann Arbor last season, after Rodriquez’s three-year run of 15-22 was deemed totally unacceptable. Michigan made just one bowl appearance under Rich-Rod, losing 52-14 to Miss St in the Gator Bowl (talk about unacceptable). The Wolverines went 11-2 last season (7-4-1 ATS), capping the season with a 23-20 OT win against Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl. The offense changed little at Michigan, as the team only slightly increased its scoring average (from 32.8 PPG in 2010 to 33.3 PPG in 2011) but it was on the defensive side of the ball that Hoke made a HUGE difference. Michigan allowed an unheard of average of 35.2 PPG and just over 450 YPG in 2011 but in 2011, the Wolverines cut that to 17.4 PPG and just over over 320 YPG. Michigan opened the 2012 season with a preseason ranking of No. 8 in the AP poll but found out quickly, it was not up to the challenge of playing with the best of the SEC this past Saturday night. Alabama, the defending national champs (ranked No. 2), made it a “no contest” right from the opening kickoff. Alabama led 21-0 at the end of the first quarter, 31-7 at the half and cruised to a 41-14 victory. Michigan’s Denard Robinson all but saw any long-shot chance of winning the Heisman put to rest Saturday night. He was 11-of-26 through the air (200 yards with one TD and two INTs) plus the man who has run for 2,878 yards the last two seasons (6.1 YPC with 30 TDs), had 27 yards rushing on 10 carries (he did have a TD). Now here’s the good news. Facing the undersized and much-slower Air Force "D" will be a welcome relief for Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense after dealing with Alabama's NFL-like unit. Air Force rolled up 626 total yards (484 rushing yards and seven TDs) in last Saturday’s 49-21 win over Idaho St but note the Air Force “D” allowed 431 yards, including 365 through the air. Robinson and Co. should be just fine vs Air Force and after being embarrassed by Alabama, the group should be well-motivated as well. Also, expect Michigan’s “D’ to bring its “A game” vs Air Force. QB Tim Jefferson and RB Asher Clark are gone. Jefferson became the first Air Force QB to start four bowl games last season, while Clark ended his career with back-to-back 1000-yard seasons. Starting at QB this year is senior Connor Dietz and he was 8-of-11 for 142 yards (no TDs or INTs) vs Idaho St plus ran for 74 yards with a a TD. However, he’ll be facing an ‘angry’ Michigan “D” and let me point out that Dietz has very little experience, having warmed the bench the last three seasons behind Jefferson. Then there is RB Cody Getz, who ran for 218 yards vs Idaho St, but had only 64 carries the last three seasons with his longest gain amounting to only 19 yards. Go Big Blue! Lay it.

Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia vs. MissouriFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Missouri +2½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mizzou opens up their SEC schedule for the first time ever in front of a raucous and sold out crowd this Saturday Night. Many sports writers and TV analysis’s have given the Tigers no chance to compete in the SEC and in this game. I watched Kirk Herbstreit on ESPN say Missouri is not used to the type of defense’s that the SEC will pose to them. Really? Ok I guess all those years in the Big 12 against the likes of Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas to name a few were just a bunch of slouches and the Big 12 is soft and weak. Throw out Alabama and LSU and whose defense in the SEFC is a difference maker ever?
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That said Mizzou has a great QB in Franklin who is a massive game breaker and dual threat, a trio of WR’s anyone would love to have on their team and a RB system by committee which is evasive and fast. Georgia on the other hand also has a great QB in Murray and plenty around him but to win on the road at Mizzou they will need a perfect game, and how many times in the past has Georgia stunk it up early in a season, they started out 0-2 last year and really looked unfocused against Buffalo last week. I understand they have some issues on suspensions that led to a tighter game in that one, but Mizzou clicked on all cylinders last week, and Gary Pinkel can coach a big game and has won plenty of them too.
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As of this write up the suspensions are still in effect at Georgia, and while that remains mystery, Mizzou has the offense to get it done here. They run the spread attack with Franklin almost flawlessly at times and he rarely makes bad decisions. Home field is the difference here and a very motivated Mizzou team which knows this game makes or breaks them in the SEC this year against a beatable team at home. I know the OL for Mizzou on one side is weak and inexperienced, but with the speed of execution on offense that counters that, and with all world playmaker TJ Moe breaking some big special teams plays, I see Mizzou here by 4. Live Dog scenario.

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Central Florida at Ohio State
Pick: Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Any home favorite of 16.5 or more versus an opponent that comes off an away favorite of -10.0 or more ATS win, and they won 7 games or less in the previous season is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1994. The favorite won those 9 games by an average of 39.9 points per game. Play on Ohio St. minus the points.

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Wisconsin vs. Oregon StFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Oregon StFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Beavers’ scheduled opener versus Nicholls State was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac last week which begs the age-old question: Is it better to arrive fresh or with a game under your belt? While we usually prefer the latter, Oregon State HC Mike Riley would have been wise spending the off time watching Northern Iowa put a scare into Wisconsin. The Panthers had the ball in Wisky territory late in the fourth quarter before turning it over on downs in the 26-21 loss. Riley probably also spent plenty of time reviewing last year’s 35-0 thumping at the hands of these same Badgers and his 21-14 SU and ATS record with revenge, including 11-2 ATS as a dog of less than 16 points, suggests he’ll make amends. So does Wisconsin’s 2-6 ATS mark as a favorite of more than 3 points versus an avenging non-conference opponent. We also like the fact that the Badgers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as road favorites. With that we’ll gnaw at the points in this one. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oregon State.

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Iowa State vs. IowaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Iowa -3½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is generally an intense rivalry and this should be a solid match up this season as the teams are very evenly matched. I like Iowa to win this game for three reasons- a solid home field advantage for Iowa, QB James Vandenberg's elevated play at home, and the emergence of Damon Bullock at running back.
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ISU rolled Tulsa at home after being an underdog entering the game. Steele Jantz had a solid day and ISU controlled the game the final three quarters after getting off to a rough start. Jantz had a career day against Iowa last season in the triple OT upset last year in Ames. Jantz has solid options at the skill positions including a running back depth chart that is legitimately four deep. The ISU defense can play a ton of players at both defensive line and secondary but lacks stand outs at either spot. ISU's Jake Knott and AJ Klein are a formidable duo at linebacker but need the defensive line to keep them clean to make plays.
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Iowa's defense carried the team and really elevated their play in the second half versus NIU on a neutral field. Iowa scored only 18 points- 4 field goals and a rushing TD late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback. Iowa really struggled to execute in the red zone and to give Vandenberg time to look downfield in last week's game. I look for Iowa to open the playbook a bit more in this match up and for a lot of the pass protection issues to be ironed out in this match up.
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These two teams are very evenly matched with ISU having an advantage in overall depth and Iowa having a clear edge at placekicker. Iowa's offense should be a bit more efficient in this meeting and the secondary should be able to give a green defensive front enough time to fluster Jantz and force enough mistakes for Iowa to win this game fairly comfortably.

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Nebraska vs. UCLAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UCLA +6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska took a hit LW when RB, Burkhead went down in their 49-20 win over Southern Miss last week. QB, Taylor Martinez had a strong outing but the Southern Miss defense can not compare to the bigger DL and faster LBs of UCLAs stop unit. The Bruins ran the ball with ease in their 49-24 victory at Rice. The team is tired of being overshadowed in the Conference. They racked up 348 YR and 651 Total yards in Game 1. UCLA is well-balanced, with QB Hundley and RB Franklin, not to mention a strong, athletic and stout OL. At home, the Bruins will make a statement here. Take UCLA.

Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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East Carolina vs. South CarolinaFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: South Carolina -21FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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South Carolina comes off it's impressive road win against a veteran Vanderbilt team on a Thursday night that opened up the college football season and now they get extra time to prepare against an East Carolina team that will have no business being in this game. It may be funny saying that considering South Carolina on neutral field trailed East Carolina at the half 24-14 and were down by as much as 17 just one year ago, but I'm confident in my analysis on this game.
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Not only will the Gamecocks have the advantage of a couple extra days of rest and preparation but they face an East Carolina team that will be replacing their best player in QB Dominique Davis. Now East Carolina goes on the road with first time starter Rio Johnson behind an offensive line that returns 4 starters, but was 92nd in pass protection a year ago? Enter defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney and Devin Taylor who should be roaming the backfield often on Saturday. This duo will be found in the NFL some day having impact on nfl point spreads, but for now they should help force turnovers.
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Turnovers are the huge issue here that makes a 21 point spread very possible. East Carolina is not only turnover prone (3 against Appalachian State last week), but they are constantly plagued by penalties that should impact their ability to score points. South Carolina's defense was a top 10 defense last year and they were able to hold Vanderbilt on the road to 3-15 on third down. On the other side of the ball East Carolina will struggle big time getting off the field on third down. That to me will be a major advantage in time of possession and will lead to Marcus Lattimore wearing down East Carolina's linebackers as they move onto a comfortable win.
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Don't think the Gamecocks don't remember nearly losing to this team last year. They were able to put up 42 points in the 2nd half to escape with a comfortable win despite 4 fumbles. With this game being at home and South Carolina having extra preparation and with a cupcake on the schedule next in UAB I believe this should be a blow out victory.