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Iowa St. at IowaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IowaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week, the Hawkeyes struggled to an 18-17 win over Northern Illinois, fighting back after trailing by eight points heading into the final quarter. Sophomore Damon Bullock was an absolute workhorse, gaining 150 yards on 30 carries. QB James Vandenburg is back for another season and did complete 21 of 33 passes, but for only 129 yards. That's a ridiculously low 3.9 yards per attempt and NIU sacked the Iowa signal caller six times. But I like NIU's defense more than Iowa State's. The Huskies returned eight starters to the stop unit, while ISU returns only five starters, missing three up front from last year's squad. I expect the Hawkeyes to pound the ball right at the ISU front line with a steady dose of RB Bullock. Offensively, like their rival, ISU allowed their QB to take too many hits in their season opening win over Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane sacked Steele Jantz four times, but Jantz did complete 32 of 45 passes. However, the level of competition, as far as the opposing defense is concerned notches up this week. ISU won a wild one last season, 44-41 at home as a 6 1/2 point underdog. But I think we'll see a lower scoring game this week. Iowa won the last time in Iowa City, 35-7 as a 13-point favorite. And here they are, laying just 4 points in 2012. I believe the value lies with Iowa, who have won 11 straight home openers, by an average of 33 ppg, while going 7-3 ATS. Iowa has won the last four meetings in Iowa City. I'm recommending a play on the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday.
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NC State vs. Connecticut
Play: NC State -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This number has been all over the place. NC State could be found favored anywhere from 3.5 to 6-point favorites but it has now settled in at 3.5 points most everywhere. The Wolfpack are coming off a loss against Tennessee in their opener as they lost by 14 points while getting outgained by 117 total yards. This is the first true road game for NC State and while it went just 1-4 on the highway a year ago, the schedule was a tough one and this one is a big step down in class. Connecticut meanwhile is coming off a dominating performance against Massachusetts last week as it shutout the Minutemen 37-0. The Huskies were dominant on defense, holding the Minutemen to just 59 total yards and three first downs overall. While it was a great performance, not a lot should be taken from that victory as Massachusetts is playing in its first year as a true FBS team and has very little skill players on offense so it will be struggling all season to move the ball. Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon is a very key player in this game. He is capable of big things but last week was a major disappointment as he had one touchdown but tossed four interceptions against the Volunteers and he is much better than that. Glennon passed for three touchdowns or more in seven games last season and six of the seven resulted in wins for the Wolfpack. Good quarterbacks bounce back from poor performances and Glennon fits the bill as a very good quarterback despite the struggles last week. The strength of Connecticut will be its defense but losing defensive linemen Shamar Stephen and Teddy Jennings is a huge blow to the line and the depth up front. The Huskies are going to have trouble getting pressure and stopping the run as NC State has one of the best offensive lines in the ACC and the Wolfpack have just two offensive linemen on their depth chart who are under 300 pounds. NC State should be able to control the line of scrimmage without much resistance. The secondary for the Wolfpack got gashed against Tennessee for 33 yards and a couple touchdowns but the Huskies do not have the same level of playmakers on offense. Sophomore quarterback Chandler Whitmer struggles against Massachusetts, tossing a couple interceptions and the Huskies lost their best two receivers from last season. The unit will struggle. Connecticut is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win while the Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.
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Texas +105FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texas Rangers head to Tampa Bay to open up a three-game weekend series with the Rays. Derek Holland heads to the mound, fresh off another victory in Cleveland in front of his friends and family. With that extra confidence, he'll take on the Rays who have seriously struggled against left handers this season. The Rays, for a while, were far below the .500 mark against lefties. In most instances, their weak offense has been helped out by a pitching staff allowing just 3.62 runs per game. The Rays, however, may not get that kind of luxury against the Rangers.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound for the Rays. He draws a tough assignment as a contact pitcher going up against a Rangers lineup that has a .311 BABip as a team. Hellickson is a bit of a mystery statistically as he has a very low career BABip for a pitcher that doesn't strike many hitters out. The turf does play an impact as his BABip of .281 at home is 60 points higher than on the road. A Texas lineup that is putting a lot of balls in play is a very
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USC vs. SyracuseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: USC -26FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Syracuse is 47-63 as an underdog since 1992.Syracuse will lose their 7th consecutive game in a row but the question is will they cover?.Last year Usc beat them 38-17 and today is a special day for Matt Berkley as he turns 22.Syracuse offence looked great in losing to Northwestern but let's not kid ourselves the Trojan defence is a few steps up in class and after torching Hawaii 35-0 in the first half this Syracuse defence will have it's hands full if they thought Northwestern had a very good offence.Take Usc lay the 26 as your freeplay Saturday winner.
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Iowa State vs. Iowa
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There’s not a lot to like about Iowa this year. The Hawkeyes program has been in steady decline since their shocking run to the Orange Bowl following the 2009 season. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is no longer able to attract NFL level recruits the way that he did for many of his previous 13 seasons on the job. The Hawkeyes didn’t reach the end zone against rebuilding Northern Illinois until the final two minutes of the game last week, escaping with a one point victory over a mid-tier MAC squad. An offensive line that has regularly sent graduated to the NFL doesn’t appear to have any NFL caliber talent in 2012.
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This team lacks offensive playmakers as well, and QB James Vandenberg needed 33 pass attempts to throw for 129 yards against the Huskies last week. Iowa’s defense got pushed around as well, allowing more than five yards per carry against a team that graduated four offensive linemen in the offseason, three of them All-MAC players. The Hawkeyes once enormous home field edge has declined with the program’s overall decline, just 13-16 ATS since 2006 as home chalk. In short, Iowa has no business laying more than a field goal against a team that beat them last year and is primed to do it again!
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There was nothing fraudulent about Iowa State’s dominating performance as home underdogs against Tulsa last week. The Cyclones defense was in control throughout, forcing ten punts, two interceptions and a fumble after falling behind 16-7 early, outscoring the Hurricanes 31-7 the rest of the way. Senior QB Steele Jantz threw for 279 yards and four TD’s against Iowa last year, and he completed 71% of his passes for 281 yards and two TD’s last week. Expect more of the same on Saturday! Take the Cyclones.
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Duke vs. Stanford
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The Duke Blue Devils (1-0) take on the Stanford Cardinals (1-0) at Stanford Stadium in this matchup.
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The Blue Devils will be looking to go to 2-0 to start a season for the first time since 1998 after a 46-26 victory last week at home over Sun Belt Conference powerhouse FIU.
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Their offense put up a very impressive 420 yards against an FIU defense that returned 9 starters and finished 30th in the nation in total yards and 14th in scoring last season. Third year starting QB Sean Renfree was 21-30 for an excellent 290 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
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The Blue Devils defense gave up 513 yards to a Golden Panthers offense that finished 82nd in the nation last season in total yards per game with T.Y. Hilton no longer in the mix. Their strength on D is in the secondary with CB Russ Cockrell and S Walt Canty.
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In week 1 the Cardinals were outscored 14-3 in the second half at home against San Jose State but hung on for a narrow 20-17 victory. They are hardly the team that won 11 games last season including a 57-3 thrashing of San Jose State in week one at home.
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Their offense will obviously not fire with the same efficiency with Josh Nunes behind center however coach David Shaw was very impressed with his junior QB as he was efficient in throwing 16-26 for 125 yards and 0 TDs.
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Senior Stepfan Taylor led the charge on the ground with 116 yards on 26 carries. The Cardinals were 18th in the nation last season in rushing yards at 210.6 ypg but I expect that number to decline sharply with offensive linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin being drafted in the first 2 rounds of the 2012 draft.
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On defense Shayne Skov will make his season debut fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered in week 3 of last season. He missed week 1 due to suspension for a DUI arrest. Skov led the team in tackles in 2010 with 84. The Cardinal are expected to have one of the strongest linebacker groups in the nation this season with Chase Thomas alongside Skov. The team is very strong on the defensive line as well with All-Pac 12 second team Ben Gardner leading the charge at end.
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The Blue Devils will be in for a true test against the strong Cardinal defense with Skov back in the lineup leading the charge. They have the QB to move the ball down the field accompanied by a strong WR core led by Connor Vernon.
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For the Cardinals on offense expect a heavy dose of the run and a safe offensive scheme that will keep Nunes in his comfort zone. Nunes averaged 8 yards per reception last week in throwing for a mere 125 yards. Blue Devils safety Walt Canty will ensure Nunes doesn't look down field too often. If last weeks results are an indication of how this season will go for these teams, then the Blue Devils plus 15 points is a play to look at. Take the "Duke Blue Devils" to win plus the points.
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North Carolina -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest struggled to beat Liberty in its opener. It was outgained 363-293, which doesn't bode well considering the step up it takes in competition this week.
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North Carolina hammered Elon 62-0, outgaining the Phoenix 524-170. The Tar Heels were clearly the sharper team in Week 1, and they clearly have more talent and depth.
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North Carolina has won 11 of the last 16 meetings with Wake Forest dating back to 1992, and it is 6-2 SU and ATS in Winston-Salem during this span. The Heels dominated last season's meeting, notching a 49-24 victory in Chapel Hill while outgaining the Demon Deacons 562-331. UNC QB Bryn Renner went bonkers in that game, completing 21 of 28 passes for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. He easily outperformed Wake's Tanner Price, who was 17 of 29 for 146 yards and 3 interceptions.
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I didn't see enough out of Wake last week to lead me to believe they have closed the gap between it and North Carolina. Lay the points.
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Memphis vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -23
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After getting pummeled at Oregon last Saturday, Arkansas State will be elated to be back inside ASU Stadium. Since 2005, the Red Wolves have posted a respectable 31-7 SU record in their own backyard and were a perfect six-for-six in Jonesboro last season.
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Knocking off Memphis shouldn’t be an issue. The Tigers dropped their lid-lifter with an embarrassing 20-17 home loss to Tennessee-Martin last week. Since 2009, Memphis has been one of college footballs worst posting an ugly 5-32 SU and 9-23-2 ATS record including just 3-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in non-conference action. Additionally, the Tigers have only tasted victory in one of their last 18 on foreign fields and have lost the other 17 by an average of 25.4 points per game.
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There is a decent system that side with Arkansas State too. Since 1980, home favorites priced at -20 or more are a respectable 80-54-2 ATS provided they check in off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. If our “play on” host is matched up against an opponent that enjoyed the comforts of home last, this system tightens up to a juicy 56-35-1 ATS!
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Dating back to the start of the 2010 season, ASU has been a cash cow posting a healthy 17-8 ATS record in its last 25 lined games. In this role matched up against a foe that scoots in without momentum off a straight up loss, the Red Wolves have won 10 of their last 13.
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Off the loss at Oregon and with a trip to Lincoln on deck to face No. 16 Nebraska, head coach Gus Malzahn’s troops will come out focused and take care of business. Take Arkansas State.
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Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -3½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawkeyes over Cyclones- Iowa State has had the best of this series against the number of late winning outright last year in triple overtime and they are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Iowa slept walked through their opener against Kent State as they had revenge on their minds. Iowa will be ready this week. Lay the points in this one-sided rivalry.
Bobby ConnFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I like Arizona's value here tonight catching 11 at home. Last year the Wildcats went to Stillwater and were getting 14 points, but faced a much tougher team that included stars Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. Now the Cowboys have a freshman QB making his first road start against a unique 3-3-5 defense employed by Arizona. The Wildcats put up some yards last week but didn't convert that offense into points. They do this week as they keep this game close.
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Louisiana-Monroe vs. ArkansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Louisiana-Monroe +30½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas brings in a new coaching staff after Bobby Petrino got the axe. It will take a while to get acclimated and the Razorbacks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Arkansas (1-0) wasn't completely sharp in its first game under John L. Smith and his first as a head coach since 2006 with Michigan State. On Saturday, the Razorbacks trailed 14-7 to FCS opponent Jacksonville State early in the second quarter and gave up 163 passing yards in the first half. They also committed two fumbles in their first three possessions. They face a Monroe squad that returns 8 starters on offense, 5 on defense, and return junior Kolton Browning, an excellent runner, and top rusher Jyruss Edwards. And the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play UL Monroe.
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Vanderbilt vs. Northwestern
Play: Vanderbilt -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Commodores almost pulled off the upset of the early season in their opening game at home against No. 9 South Carolina. Vanderbilt had a 13-10 lead into the 4th quarter, but would end up losing 13-17. That game alone should let you know how talented this Vanderbilt team is.
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The Commodores were a completely different team when Jordan Rodgers took over the starting quarterback job late last season. They 3-3 over their final six regular season games, with a 3-point loss to Arkansas, 5-point loss at Florida and 6-point overtime loss at Tennessee. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.
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Vanderbilt should be able to move the ball at will against a horrible Northwestern defense. The Wildcats allowed 596 yards of total offense to Syracuse in their opener. While the Wildcats were able to win that game, the defense let Syracuse rally from a 35-13 deficit to take the lead in a matter of 15 minutes. That alone tells you that they are not going to be good on that side of the ball this year.
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On the other side of the ball, you have to be impressed with how well Vanderbilt played defensively against South Carolina. They held the Gamecocks to just 272 yards of total offense. While I understand that South Carolina is a run-first team, they held them to just 67 yards passing.
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There's no question Northwestern has a much more efficient passing attack, but I don't think people understand just how strong the Commodores secondary is. Vanderbilt held opposing offenses to just 192 yards/game passing last year. Even if Northwestern is able to put together a couple scoring drives, they aren't going to be able to keep up with what their defense is going to allow.
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if Vanderbilt won this game by 20+ points, which makes them a no-brainer at -3! The Commodores are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games in September, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
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Maryland +10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A number of things influence betting lines and we have a number of those doing so to this one. That is pretty much what this is all about here as I am simply playing a number that is off the mark according to mine. I have Temple -6.2. Those things that have put this line where it is include last week's action with Temple blasting Villanova and Maryland squeaking by W & M. But the Terps had some injury situations and they are getting some bodies back tonight. Certainly losing their QB for the season hurts and it did affect this line. However they do bring back what is considered their Best D in years, and most of that is Run D which Temple does a lot of. I like this number we have and already we are seeing some 9.5's popping up. I suspect we will see more of that and I do expect a close game here.
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Duke +15.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The host Cardinal BARELY got away with a 'W' last week against lowly San Jose State (a team they beat by 54 freakin points last year). In last week's game, Stanford was favored by a whopping -25 points... and only won by 3 (20 to 17). Looks like the conservative play-calling of offensive Coordinator Pep Johnson almost backfired. They squeaked by last week because San Jose State has no offense. And in fact, they got OUTSTATTED by the Spartans! But that's not the case for the Blue Devils. DUKE came away with an unexpected 20-point home win (as favs of -3 pts) against the power of the Sunbelt Conference (Fla International). In that game, the Blue Devils rang up 46 points.... had 29 first downs... passed the ball 46 times... and had 348 passing yards. They CERTAINLY have the offensive chops to hang within Saturday's 2-TD+ line vs the host Cardinal.
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And if you like playing AGAINST big favorites with BIG look-aheads next week, this one is right up your alley. Guess who's on the schedule for the Cardinal next week? A game vs arch-rival USC.... in which the Trojans are playing with multiple-game REVENGE. In the last two seasons. PAC 12 teams are 1-8 ATS the week BEFORE a home game versus USC.
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Let's stay in the PAC 12 conference, and run another situation based on last week's results.
2-12 ATS since 1999: All PAC 10 / 12 big favorites of -14 > points (Stanford) versus any opponent off a SU and ATS win (DUKE).
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How about running a query for ACC teams taking on PAC 12 teams?
6-1 ATS: All ACC teams playing off a double-digit SU win (DUKE) versus any PAC 10/12 team (Stanford). These ACC'ers are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS when playing on the road.
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Querying Stanford's fall from grace in Game One clinches the deal.
2-12 ATS since 1999: All College non-conference favorites of 8 > points playing of a SU win if 7 points (Stanford).
Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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5 UNIT PLAY
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BOWLING GREEN -16.5 over Idaho: Bowling Green is off an impressive showing in the Swamp vs the Florida Gators, as they lost by just 13 points as 28 point dogs. The Falcons are a team on the rise in the MAC, with 18 starters back, including QB Matt Schilz (3024 yrds and 28 TD’s last year), their top 3 RB’s, 4 OL and their top 8 tacklers from a year ago and they will be a very tough out for most teams on their schedule this year. Just ask Florida. Last year Idaho had a very bad, going 2-10 and they bring back just 10 starters (5 on each side of the ball) from that team. Well this year may be just as long for them. The Vandals opened their season at home vs FCS opponent Eastern Washington and were beat by a 20-3 score and were outgained in the game by a 415-237 count. Now they must take to the road and play a very improved Falcon team that was only outgained by the Gators by just 15 yards and also became just the third team in the last 4 years to out firstdown the Gators by 7 (22-14) or more at the Swamp. Bowling Green is a much improve team over last year’s edition that won by 17 points at Idaho and with this game being on their home field and with Idaho really looking bad so far, I will expect the Falcons to take this one by at least 21 points.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame/ Purdue Over 51.5: Google News Play The Irish offense looks to be very good this year after hanging up 50 points on Navy last week and that game also showed that Brian Kelly is not afraid to put extra points on the board, even if the game is out of reach. The Irish tallied 490 yards last week and will look to keep it going this week vs a Purdue defense that will be average at best this year. Last year Purdue had 9 starters back on defense yet still allowed 26.8 ppg after allowing 28.8 ppg in 2010 and 29.1 ppg in 2011. The Boilers really never have great defense and the Iraish should be able to score big points on them here. Purdue offense is improved over last year, with 8 starters back and QB Caleb TerBush could have a very nice afternoon vs an Irish secondary that did not play well vs a Navy team last week that just doesn't throw the ball much. Notre Dame's secondary is their weakness on this team and that should allow Purdue to put up a bunch of points of their own. I look for this one to hit near 60 points.
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East Carolina +21.5 over SOUTH CAROLINA: Connor Shaw is really the only option that South Carolina has at QB and he is dinged up and is a game time decision for this one. Last week the Gamecocks used a run heavy offensive gameplan, due to the return of Lattimore and the fact that Shaw is not a great QB. Last year when these teams met Connor was just 3-9 for 29 yards and SC was down 17-0 before Spurrier benched him in favor of Garcia. Despite his problems, Shaw is their only option, as Dylan Thompson did not look very good last week, and I feel that will really lead to a conservative gameplan from Spurrier as he looks to just get out of this game healthy. That means running the ball with Lattimore and working the clock and that should allow a very good East Carolina offense to put enough points on the board to keep this one close. The Pirates are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs Ranked teams and I expect that trend to continue here.
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Florida -1 over TEXAS A&M: I know that A&M is playing its first home game in their new conference, so emotions will be running high, but I don’t feel that their emotional status will be enough to overcome the better talent that the Gators have. The Aggies have a very good offense, but they are breaking in a new QB and don’t have thye luxury of play gthose weak Big 12 defenses this year. Both A&M and Missouri will find that the SEC defenses are very tough and will find it hard at times to move the ball on them. The Aggies will find out in their first game. The Gators have 10 starters back from a group that allowed just 20.3 ppg last year. Overall this group brings back 234 of 27 lettermen and 15 of their top 16 tacklers from a year ago and they have already had a game under their belt, while A&M and new QB Johnny Manziel, who is just a redshirt freshmen. The Aggies do have a solid OL, but have also lost their top rusher and 2 of their top 4 pass catchers from last year. I do not see them putting up a bunch of points on this Gators defense. Last week the Florida offense looked like they struggled vs Bowling Green, but OC Brent Pease was ordered to sandbag the play calling as to not show the Aggies too much. This week they will open it up more and should have good success vs an Aggie defense that returns just 6 starters and 4 of their top 9 tacklers from a unit that allowed 28.2 ppg. The Gators are the better team here and while the Aggies will have the crowd behind them I fell it won’t be enough to overcome the talent edge that Florida has on both sides of the ball.
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Wisconsin -7 over OREGON STATE: I know that OSU is an improved team, but I still feel this line is an over reaction to Wisconsin winning by just 5 points over FCS foe Northern Iowa. The Badgers really played a vanilla game, offensively, last week, as to not show OSU a whole lot of their play book and that a big part of why they were only able to put up 26 points in the game. Defensively they did struggle a little, especially through the air as they allowed 265 yards passing in the game. You can bet that after allowing just 164 ypg through the air last year that Bret Bielema will have his defense ready to play in this one. OSU is improved overall, but QB Sean Mannion did have more INT's (18) than TD's last year and the defense is s till a weak point of this team, after allowing 30.8 ppg last year. Wisconsin didn't show alot in their opener and they do have the benefit of having a game under their belt. I look for Wiscy to flex their muscles here on their way to a 10+ point win.