Rice +10.5
To me, this is the most bloated line on the board with the public hammering Kansas for one reason; Weis. I will gladly take the points here our free play is on Rice +10.5.
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Dodgers vs. Giants
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The Dodgers and Giants continue their battle on Saturday afternoon as Matt Cain looks to bounce back after a rough road trip where he was denied wins against two of the worst teams in the league in Chicago and Houston. Cain is 13-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 16 Overs in 27 starts. He has allowed 8 runs and 19 hits in his last three starts. Cain has faced the Dodgers twice this season allowing 4 runs and 16 hits in 14 innings. Andre Ethier (25-53) and Adrian Gonzalez (18-56) hit the righty well. The Dodgers are scoring over 4 runs per game in the daytime and they are hitting right around .254 against right-handed starters.
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Chris Capuano has been in an awful funk for the Dodgers. He has allowed 15 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts. Capuano was rocked by the Giants back on August 22nd when he gave up 6 runs and six hits in five innings. Capuano is 6-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 14 road starts for the Dodgers. He is 1-5 with a 5.66 ERA in seven career starts against San Francisco. The Giants are hitting over .289 in their last eight games and .267 against left-handed starters. They are averaging 4 runs per game in the daytime, and with the Dodgers’ bullpen having an ERA over 4.00 on the road, we recommend playing this game Over the total.
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Rice vs. Kansas
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We played against Rice in its season-opener last week, and were rewarded with an easy blowout winner as UCLA rolled to a 49-24 victory.
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Now it's time to switch gears and back the Owls as they hit the road for the first time this season, facing Charlie Weis' Kansas Jayhawks.
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While the Owls ultimately fell short by a wide margin last week, I did like the way they battled. Were it not for a 44-yard fumble return for a touchdown inside the final 20 seconds of the first half, they would have been down only five points heading into the break. Their offense moved the ball at will at times, with QB Taylor McHargue doing it all, throwing for 172 yards and two touchdowns while running for 95 yards and a score.
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Now Rice takes a step down in class against a Kansas defense that is in a state of transition. The Jayhawks were awful in that department last season, and it's unlikely they'll make a big leap in the right direction this year.
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While Kansas did prevail 31-17 over San Diego State last week, it wasn't a pretty win by any means. Were it not for sloppy play by the San Diego State offense, turning the football over five times in the game, things could have played out much differently. Note that the Aztecs racked up over 400 yards of total offense and gained 6.2 yards per rush. That's alarming when you consider they have a revamped offense with almost all of their key pieces from last season no longer in the nix.
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New Jayhawks QB Dayne Crist struggled, completing only 17-of-36 passes, and that's not surprising given the fact he threw only 24 passes with Notre Dame last season, and is working with a less than stellar receiving corps.
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Kansas is still very much a work-in-progress, and as we saw last week, laying points with them doesn't appear to be a wise investment right now. As bad as Rice looked at times against UCLA, there were also plenty of positives to take away from the loss. You might want to place some of your wager on the moneyline in this one, as the Owls could be in line for an outright victory.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
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The 68-71 Diamondbacks are at the 65-74 Padres on Saturday for game 2 of their 3 Game series in San Diego. The D-Backs give the rock to 13-9 Miley while 1-0 Kelly gets the nod for The Padres. Miley starts his day off with a 2.90 ERA Overall giving up 53 earned runs in 164.7 innings pitched allowing 30 BB and recording 117 K's. On the other side of the diamond, Kelly begins his half with a 3.86 ERA giving up 5 earned runs in 11.7 innings pitched allowing 4 BB and recording 9 K's. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 Games as a Favorite and 0-5 in Mileys last 5 Starts following a team loss in their previous appearance. The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 as a Home Underdog and 13-3 in their last 16 Home Games against teams with losing road records. Solid play on the Padres with Kelly.
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Army vs. San Diego State
Play: Army +6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Army is a very tough team to prepare for, and I really don't think San Diego State's defense is built to stop the option attack. San Diego State was much better last year than they are this season, but they were badly outgained by Army and were fortunate to win by three. Trent Steelman gives Army a very good option quarterback who makes great decisions with the ball. San Diego State's offense looked out of sync against a poor Washington defense last week. Look for Army to at least keep this close. Take Army and the points.
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Detroit Tigers -135
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LA's C.J. Wilson is a quality pitcher, but he's no Justin Verlander. I'll gladly get behind the reigning AL MVP at this price considering the Tigers are 40-16 in his last 56 starts. They are 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record while the Angels are 1-7 in Wilson's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Detroit.
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -3
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You better fade overrated Houston while you have the chance early in the season. This is a soft line, and I'm certainly willing to lay the points after what I saw out of the Cougars last week. With just 12 starters back, the loss of the school's all-time leading passer Case Keenum (19,217 career passing yards), his top three receivers, and head coach Kevin Sumlin, it was clear that Houston was going to be in rebuilding mode heading into 2012. That was very evident last weekend. Houston lost at home to Texas State 13-30 despite being a 34.5-point favorite. They missed the cover by a whopping 51.5 points! Houston allowed 444 total yards to Texas State, and Cougars' starting QB David Piland was awful, completing 17 of 44 passes for 211 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Louisiana Tech won eight games last season, and four of their five losses came to Southern Miss (17-19), Houston (34-35), Mississippi State (20-26 OT) and TCU (24-31) all by 7 points or less. This was clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country last year, and with 13 starters and 46 lettermen back, the Bulldogs are flying under the radar again in 2012. The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Louisiana Tech is 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Take Louisiana Tech and lay the points.
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San Francisco Giants -144
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Giants have now won 4 in a row versus the Dodgers, and the odds are stacked against LA ending this skid today. In fact, playing against road teams (LA DODGERS) that are out for revenge for at least 3 straight upset losses to an opponent has produced a perfect 8-0 mark the last 5 seasons provided the play against team is starting a pitcher who is carrying an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last 3 starts. LA's Capuano is carrying an ERA of 8.44 over his last 3 starts, and I don't see him outdueling Cain here. The Giants are 5-0 in his last 5 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the Dodgers.
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Florida vs. Ohio State
Play: Central Florida +18½
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The UCF Knights could easily be a BCS buster with the talent they have returning. I like them to give Ohio State all they can handle Saturday and cover this inflated number.
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UCF went just 5-7 last season despite outscoring opponents 27.1 to 18.3 on the year, and outgaining them 407-303 on the season. Clearly, this team was at least three or four wins better than they finished. Six of their seven losses came by 7 points or less as they just could not get it done in the 4th quarter of so many games.
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With 16 starters back, the Knights will learn from their mistakes, and I expect this to be one of the most improved teams in the country. They have eight starters back on offense, led by a two-headed rushing attack with Brynn Harvey and Latavius Murray. They'll be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters and 89 career starts.
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UCF quietly had one of the best defenses in the country last year, and that will be the case again in 2012 with eight starters back on this side of the ball. The stop unit will be led by senior LB Jonathan Davis (44 tackles, 10.5 for loss), senior DE Troy Davis (29 tackles, 5 sacks) and senior FS Kemal Ishmael (81 tackles).
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The Knights are off to a solid start with a 56-14 victory over Akron. They took a 35-0 lead into halftime before calling off the dogs. Starting QB Blake Bortles was solid, completing 13 of 16 passes for 168 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Murray led the way on the ground with 108 yards and a score.
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It's going to take some time for Urban Meyer to turn Ohio State into a contender in the Big Ten after a 6-7 campaign last year. I know the Buckeyes beat Miami Ohio 56-10 in the opener, but the Redhawks had plenty of chances early to make this a game. They took a 3-0 lead into the second quarter, but simply made too many mistakes in the red zone that resulted in no points. Zac Dysert shredded this Ohio State defense for 303 yards through the air.
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The Knights are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. UCF is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. This underrated Knights' defense will keep them in the game Saturday as this one goes down to the wire. Bet UCF Saturday.
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Tulane vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulane +23½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These plays have cashed around 68% the last 5 seasons and started off with a win with Toledo plus the points last week. Tulane has won and covered 7 straight times in road openers off a loss. Tulsa fits 2 negative systems here. We want to play against home favorites of 10 or more in their 2nd game if they are playing off a road favored loss, We also note that teams who went bowling last season that are playing in a conference game have failed all but one time to the spread vs an opponent off an ats win. Tulsa has done well in this series. However their defense has been hideous the last 2 seasons and has not appeared to have improved much against an average Iowa. St offense. Tulane hung in for a spread win as a 20 point home dog vs more talented Rutgers team last week and should hang around once again here today. Ride the wave today. The Green Wave that is. Take Tulane.
Ray MonohanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Florida vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -18½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After last week's 56-10 beatdown on Miami oh Ohio the Buckeyes have now won 13 straight season openers overall and 58 consecutive regular season games against unranked opponents. Braxton Miller threw a pair of touchdown passes and ran for a score in an awesome display by Urban Meyer's young squad.
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The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in September and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
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AS for UCF they 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
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UTEP vs Mississippi
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Huge effort by UTEP last week in the loss to Oklahoma. Hard to see the Miners not letting down some here. Look for Ole Miss to take advantage of a rare chance to beat up on an opponent. I'll give the points with the Rebels.
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Purdue +14 -108 over NOTRE DAME
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Not only are the Irish returning from a trip overseas in which they took on Navy in Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland but this is a gross over-reaction to their 50-10 win in that contest. Also adding to this already inflated number is the Irish’s #22 ranking, playing an unranked team.
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The Irish are progressing nicely under Brian Kelly’s system but in no way are they 14-points superior than the Boilermakers under unfavorable conditions.
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Purdue now has the depth and talent to make a run at its first winning conference record since 2006. The defense is especially solid with seven starters and 20 lettermen returning. The Boilermakers have top-tier talent at all the key skilled positions and it showed in their opening week 48-6 blowout over Eastern Kentucky. Incidentally, EKU is a decent squad. Now we get 14 points with a confident and talented club in a game they can not only stay well within this range but one they can win outright in.
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TEXAS A&M +102 over Florida
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The Aggies will play their first game as a member of the SEC after their game at Louisiana Tech was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac. The A&M faithful will be at a frenzy, keeping intensity throughout.
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It takes more than talent to win in any sport impact than talent. The Gators debacle last week at home against Bowling Green is another clear indication that this team is not well-prepared. Bowling Green registered 22 first downs, eight more than Florida. The Gators were whistled for 14 penalties, totaling 106 yards while barely outgaining the Falcons by 40 yards. They not only will play on the road here but they’ll take a huge step up in class when facing A&M. This isn’t an isolated incident either. Ever since Will Muschamp was hired last season, the Gators have been playing mistake-filled football. The offense is stuck in neutral with just one game of 20 first downs since week 2 of last year.
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The Aggies' offense is a new system led by a redshirt freshman quarterback but both the offensive line and the skill-position units surrounding Johnny Manziel are heavy on talent, experience and leadership. Against what has to be considered the worst-prepped ranked team in some time, in a boisterous venue that will disrupt the Gators even more, the Aggies are very likely going to open with a win. We get a small take-back at Betfair. At most other places the game is a pick-em but the Aggies are still the play.
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Louisiana Tech -3 -107 over HOUSTON
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Last week in our late pick of the day (be sure to sign up this week), we suggested that the 36½-points that the Cougars were giving up was based on last year’s team. We sure didn’t expect Houston to lose outright but they did, by 17.
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What happened on and off the field should not be ignored. Head coach Tony Levine released offensive coordinator Mike Nesbitt after Nesbitt refused to call plays that put the ball in the hands of star running back Charles Sims, despite an awful day from the passing attack and direct orders from the head coach. Sims will get the ball plenty here but the Bulldogs will be ready, as they’re well aware of last week’s debacle and the troubles that surrounded it. That was against the Texas State Bobcats, a former FCS team playing its first FBS game. Houston’s defense couldn’t get off the field and the offense went a mere 17-44 in the air.
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The Bulldogs are a formidable team with excellent special teams and a veteran offense that's deep at nearly every position. Louisiana Tech has won seven straight regular season games, the fifth longest win streak in the nation. The Cougars are a train wreck and once again we get a very favorable line against a team that possesses a fraction of the talent it had a season ago.
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Ohio State -18FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Linemaker's adjustment for the arrival of HC Meyer has afforded the new Buckeye mentor a touchdown worth of respect. Until he fails, there is no way we are fading him. He has been a money making machine in this role posting a record of 20-5 ATS vs. non-con opponents while at Florida. After a lethargic first quarter in their opener, Ohio State exploded for a 56-10 victory vs. Miami, O. In that game they had a 294 TO (-1) overland advantage and balanced it with QB Miller leading them to 244 PY. With neither team being Bowl eligible, there is clear focus on each sideline. As solid as UCF will be in this bounce back season, they will simply find the going much tougher than in last week's trip to Ohio in which they defeated bottom of the barrel Akron, 56-14 with a 206-69 overland edge and +3 Net TO margin. Plenty of time to profit with UCF, but this is not the week.
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USC vs. Syracuse
Play: USC -26
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Syracuse is 47-63 as an underdog since 1992.Syracuse will lose their 7th consecutive game in a row but the question is will they cover?.Last year Usc beat them 38-17 and today is a special day for Matt Berkley as he turns 22.Syracuse offence looked great in losing to Northwestern but let's not kid ourselves the Trojan defence is a few steps up in class and after torching Hawaii 35-0 in the first half this Syracuse defence will have it's hands full if they thought Northwestern had a very good offence.Take Usc lay the 26 as your freeplay Saturday winner.