Wunderdog
Georgia at Missouri
Pick: Missouri +2
The Missouri Tigers shift from the powerful Big-12 Conference to the most dominating conference in football - the SEC. Missouri has had recent success on the gridiron, and have a lot of weapons returning. They won their opener with ease as expected vs. Southeast Louisiana 62-0. That was the matinee for fans and this is the main attraction, and this home crowd will be sky high for this one. Despite all the talk of LSU and Alabama fighting it out in the SEC, Georgia has been written-in as a team that could also be in that mix. Certainly their effort vs. Buffalo calls that into question. The Bulldogs were perhaps looking ahead, won 45-23, but that didn't tell the story. They scored on a 100-yard TD return, two long passes, and a 55-yard run, for 28 of the 45 points. Outside the two big plays Murray was just 13-25 for 147 yards and 6 yards per attempt. The running game was held to 98 yards on 32 carries outside the big run, so they did not move the ball well. Lots of suspensions are going to hurt the defense here against a big offense, and a fired-up team at home in their SEC debut. Play on Missouri.
Bob Balfe
South Florida +1 over Nevada
One word Speed. I could leave it right there, but I just do not see Nevada being as successful against South Florida as they were against California. Cal does not have the speed and skilled athletes as a team like South Florida. Florida football produces amazing athletes . Bulls QB B.J Daniels is a much better QB then Cody Fajardo. Nevada does not have a skilled defense line and the Bulls should be bullying this unit around. This should be a pretty entertaining game, but in the end I will take the skill players for USF over the Nevada players. Take South Florida.
The Real Animal
2* Ohio University -21.5
Yikes! New Mexico State only led Sacramento State 28-19 entering the 4th quarter last week before putting up three more touchdowns. Sacramento State QB Garrett Safron threw for 308 yards against the Aggies, who have won one road game the last four years. I'm guessing New Mexico State rarely comes east of the Mississippi. You of course remember the last time New Mexico State was in a bowl game-1960 Sun Bowl! This team plays no defense whatsoever allowing 36.8 and 39.5 points per game the last two years. They have just four starters back on offense and three on defense. I can't imagine what Ohio's Tyler Tettleton is capable of here considering he led the Bobcats to 500 yards at Penn State last week completing 31-of-41 for 324 yards without a pick against the Lions. In their last three road games New Mexico State was outscored by a cumulative margin of 147-23 by Louisiana Tech, BYU, and Georgia. Aggies senior RB Robert Clay did not make the trip to Athens because of a concussion. Ohio beat New Mexico State last year on the road 44-24 in a game they threw for 362 and led 44-10. The Aggies will really miss RB Kenny Turner. He left early for the NFL and was the only player in the country last season to rush for over 1,000 yards and post 500 or more yards receiving.
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Georgia at Missouri
Prediction: Georgia
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10* graded play on Georgia as they take on Missouri set to start at 7:45 PM ET, September 8, 2012. This is a critical Week 2 game for both teams and I do believe Georgia is the better team in this matchup. Both teams had a scrimmage type of game in Week 1 with Georgia defeating Buffalo 45-23 in the home opener and failed to cover as 37 ? point favorites. The OVER easily went over the 55 point total. Missouri destroyed a vastly inferior foe in SE Louisiana 62-10 and covered as 43 ? point favorites. There was no posted total for this game.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's face facts. There are solid reasons Georgia comes into this game ranked No. 7 in the nation and Missouri is not ranked in the Top-25. This also marks the first SEC conference game for Missouri. The atmosphere will be raucous, but Georgia has years of experience playing in hostile stadium sin the SEC Conference.
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The Betting Line
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The line for this game opened with Georgia installed as a 3 ? point favorite and there has been stead money flowing in on Missouri forcing the lines makers to adjust the line to its current -2 reading at most shops. I do not see this line going any further and would recommend getting Georgia now at -2. If, however, you beleive the line will continue towards pick-em than scale in your bet starting with a ⅓ amount at -2 and adding another third at -1 ? and then the final third at -1. For large multi-dime players, this may prove to be an excellent method of assembling a strong wager level.
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Simulator Projections
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The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by four or more points. Georgia has a strong running game and the simulator projects that they will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards. In past games, Georgia is a solid 48-22 ATS when they have rushed for 150 to 200 yards in games played since 1992.
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Consider the UNDER as a 5* Opportunity
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Both teams will bring solid defenses to this game and both offenses will work to gain an advantage in field position and time-of-possession. This will shorten the game and keep the clock moving.
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Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-5 UNDER for 83.3% winners since 1992. Play UNDER the posted total between 49.5 and 56 with home teams that are solid offensive teams from last season averaging 31 or more points per game and after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Of the 30 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 20 of the or 67%, covered the spread by seven or more points.
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The Georgia Offense
The Bulldogs return seven offensive starters including their quarterback, Aaron Murray. His experience showed last week in the game against Buffalo as he made consistent reads and solid decisions with the ball. His experience will be vastly important in this game as turnovers are nearly always a major difference maker in matchups like this game.
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Now, Missouri returns only six defensive starters so immediately, Georgia has a solid advantage. But not too fast here with this count as one of those returning starters happens to be one of the best defensive tackles in the nation in Sheldon Richardson. He has an extremely quick burst on the sna, but has the mental discipline to not get out of position on perimeter running plays. I do believe that Georgia?s interior offensive line will double team him often.
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Georgia's offensive line lost three starters to the NFL last season. However, the men replacing them and making their first start together have significant size advantages over a diminutive Tiger defensive line. Even with Richardson, I strongly believe that the Georgia offensive line will physically wear down Missouri and will lead to big gaping holes for base run plays and also open up play action pass plays for Murray to exploit. Look for Murray to connect with King, who has elite speed, on the perimeter when the safeties are positioned for run support and unable to offer deep help to the corners. Take Georgia for a 10* play.
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New Mexico State vs. Ohio
Play: New Mexico State
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Off of the National media promotion of Ohio's upset win last week at Penn St, Ohio has become a public Team this week. NMST is a unknown, well coached Team plays hard. NMST won at Minnesota last Year and expects to compete at Ohio Tonight. Ohio went 1-7 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more Last Year. Talk about overreaction to a Win, when Ohio played at NMST last Year they were 6 point favorites, Now after Penn St, Ohio is a 3 TD favorite vs a team that can score and has been preparing for Ohio all offseason ? Ohio is ready for a Let down. Small Play NMST !
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N.Y. Yankees -1½ +106 over Baltimore
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The Yankees bats have come to life. They rallied from a 6-0 deficit in the opener to tie it 6-6 on Thursday before falling, 10-6. Yesterday, they belted out eight runs to tie the series at one and now they get a hugely favorable pitching matchup with C.C. Sabathia against Joe Saunders.
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Sabathia needs no introductions. He’s been pitching brilliantly and consistently for years. Sabathia is 7-1 on the road, he has a 2.53 ERA over his last three starts covering 21.1 innings, he’s 12-2 over his past 14 starts against the O’s and the Yanks just win when he pitches.
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Then there’s Joe Saunders. This park is not a suitable one for him, as evidenced by his Oriole debut here when the White Sox lit him up for 10 hits and seven runs in 5.1 frames. His second start as an Oriole came in Toronto, where he shined, much like every other pitcher that has faced the Blue Jays in the second half. Saunders is more sizzle than steak, as any success he’s had can be attributed to a fortunate hit % and strand %. His xERA of 4.87 shows he's the same guy that hasn't delivered the goods for four years running. The Yankees can run away in this one.
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Chicago +145 over PITTSBURGH
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The Pirates choke continues. With the Cubbies coming into town and a chance to make up some ground, the Pirates were smoked 12-2 in the opener. That was Travis Wood against A.J. Burnett and his 15-6 record. Pittsburgh committed seven errors while managing just four hits. They’ve lost 11 of their past 16 games and things don’t get easier here.
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Expect Jeff Samardzija to give it everything he has here, as the Cubs announced that this will be his final appearance of the season. Samardzija has compiled 165.2 IP in making the transition to the rotation from a 2011 relief role. His 3.39 xERA and 171 K’s attest to his promise. Samardzija's run support average of 3.15 is the worst in the majors, leading to his misleading 8-13 record. His best outing came against the Pirates on July 23, when he gave up a hit and a walk over eight innings in a 2-0 win. Another strong game against this struggling host is highly probable.
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James McDonald is a risky favorite. His drastic first half/second half ERA splits (2.44/6.03) can be primarily attributed to a dramatic increase in walks. That’s the sign of a tired pitcher and when you add the intensity of a pennant race, the toll it takes is even larger. McDonald’s groundball rate is also decreasing, as it has gone from 46% in April to 42% in July and down to 40% over his last six starts. The James McDonald/Pittsburgh Pirate combo was a profitable one earlier in the year. Since the all-star break it has been a bankroll killer. Nothing about it warrants this tag.
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Neither team started off with a top tier opponent, combining to win their 1st games 82-17. With teams that shouldn’t even be on the field with these 2 teams, but, it is what it is. North Carolina has a new head coach in Larry Fedora and he has a talented RB in Giovani Bernard, who I think will tear up the front line of Wake Forest, again. Wake Forest has a frail running attack of their own, led by freshman, Deandre Martin, who struggled vs Liberty for only 3.5/carry. UNC QB Bryn Renner will rip up the secondary in this game, expecting a high scoring game, with UNC coming out by 2 or more TDs.
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Saturday is going to be on the LSU Tigers, laying that big number, against the Washington Huskies. And while it might seem ridiculous to you to lay such a big number like this, I'm telling you right now, it's games like these in which the favorite covers more times than not. The oddsmakers are normally begging you to take the underdog with 'all those points' cause they know the favorite is poised to win big.
The third-ranked Tigers roam into a sold-out Tiger Stadium, one week after cruising to a 41-14 win over North Texas in the season-opener. And while this is bound to be a stiffer test than the Mean Green, I don't think the Huskies have enough in the tank to hang with Les Miles' bunch, especially in that humidity on the Bayou.
I really don't know how the Huskies are going to score on the Tigers' D with this one being in Baton Rouge, when they could only muster a 21-12 win over San Diego State last week in Seattle.
Seriously, I scoff at the notion the Huskies are a threat to upset LSU. Lay the points, it's not that big a number. Besides, we could be laying 69' to Savannah St.
4♦ LSU
Chuck O'Brien
Now, as for my free-pick run, it's now at 105-68-2 and today I roll with an easy college football winner on the East coast.
Don't think twice about Connecticut's defensive performance last week against Massachusetts, a team playing its first game as an FBS program. Fact is, with eight starters back on defense, it didn't come as any surprise the Huskies (1-0) gave up just 59 yards and three first downs in last week 37-0 rout of the Minutemen.
It was the perfect tune-up for this week's clash with North Carolina State (0-1), is coming off a disappointing 35-21 loss to Tennessee. Now, even though UConn is considered a step down in competition for the Wolfpack, the Huskies know damn well this is a step for them and they'll be 100 percent ready with that defense.
The Huskies are catching N.C. State at the right time, as last week was a disheartening opening loss. The Wolfpack finished 8-5 last season, and came into this season with 16 returning starters and high expectations. But with a loss on the docket now, the Pack could very well be playing a big tentative today, trying not to lose, rather trying to win.
Believe me, Rentschler Stadium will be rocking today, and the home crowd will have the Huskies fired up. And while the confidence is brewing, this is going to be N.C. State's second-straight road game and it's still looking for an identity to cling to.
Look for U Conn to use that staunch defense to put the clamps on the Pack, and a power rushing game to control the tempo and game clock.
3♦ CONNECTICUT
Craig Davis
71-52 is my free play run.
For Saturday, free play winner on Ohio State minus the points over Central Florida.
Tough loss on my teaser last night.
Granted, the game really shouldn't have been that close, but you can't take a game away from those kids by a bogus offensive pass interference penalty in overtime!!
That game should have been 27-27 headed to double overtime... but the officials didn't see it that way, and my teaser went down the drain.
Today I'm not going to let it bother me as I have another 50-dime winner for you.
As for today's free play, I like Ohio State to duplicate last week's performance of another big win.
Granted, they are playing a much better team in Central Florida, but I believe another win is imminent.
Give UCF credit, however, as they were able to beat a team from Ohio last week (Akron) in convincing fashion (56-14). QB Blake Bortles was very good... completing 13 of 16 passes for 168 yards and 3 TDS.
Compare that to Braxton Miller's 161 rushing and 207 passing yards vs. Miami and it's quite comparable. Granted, I believe Miami is much better than Akron, but I was still impressed with what George O'Leary's crew was able to do.
Both football programs are serving one-year bowl bans for NCAA rules violations, and they both have big campuses with a huge enrollment, but that's about the only things they really have in common.
OSU is a bit bigger, a bit faster, and I believe they have one of the top 3 coaches in college football. This is a much bigger test on a much bigger stage
The Knights are a completely different type of team than what OSU saw last week, as they will try the power run game and try to jam it down Ohio State's throat. Sorry, but I believe that plays right into OSU's hands.
Miami had some success with the spread offense attack, but they simply couldn't run the ball. LBs Etienne Sabino, Ryan Shazier and Curtis Grant will clearly be challenged and will finally get a chance to work as a whole LB unit as opposed to constantly coming off the field in spurts.
The Bucks racked up 490 of their 538 yards in the final three periods in that 56-10 win, and with Braxton Miller gaining more confidence in this offense, it's only going to spell more and more trouble for opponents.
I like Ohio State to roll, 42-13 in Columbus.
1♦ OHIO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie in college football is the Duke Blue Devils plus the points at Stanford.
Based on what I saw last weekend, I don't see how there is any way the Cardinal is able to cover a double-digit impost against the Dookies this Saturday night in Palo Alto.
Stanford began the post Andrew Luck era with a 20-17 wire-job win over San Jose State in a game they were favored by 24-points. Meanwhile Duke showed that last season's win at Florida International was no fluke when they pounded the Golden Panthers in a 46-26 rout in Durham. Duke coach David Cutcliffe has his Blue Devils at a potent 11-7-2 as the road dog since the 2010 season, and overall the Devils stand at 16-9-2 when catching points on the road since the 2007 campaign.
Duke may not sport the best defense out there, but I would have to say it is hard to cover 15 points or so when you can only score 20 points - as the Tree did last week.
Points too tempting to pass on, so back Duke in this battle of teams with higher academic standards.
2♦ DUKE
Chris Jordan
Got two free College Football winners for you tonight, and the first one takes us to Larame, Wyoming, as I'm playing the hometown Cowboys over the visiting Toledo Rockets. I suspect this place is going to be rocking tonight, as the Cowboys opened the season down in Texas, trying to corral the Longhorns last week. And even though they lost by 20 points - 37-17 - they earned some respect playing hard-nosed football, and the Laramie faithful will have War Memorial Stadium as loud as you can imagine.
I know how good the Toledo program is and has been, but the Rockets might not know much about the altitude they're about to endure, and that's going to help the Cowboys break out to a solid lead they'll be able to cling to.
Wyoming has a senior-laden defense, bolstered by seven returners from last season's 8-5 bowl team, and I can't imagine them letting this one slip by, knowing it can lead to a three-game win streak with Cal Poly and Idaho on deck before a bye week.
Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith ranks 26th in the nation in passing yards (276.0 yards per game) and 26th in total offense (294.0 ypg). This kid was voted the 2011 Mountain West Freshman of the Year, and was named First Team
Freshman All-American by CollegeFootballNews.com. He is the only sophomore in the nation on the 2012 Manning Award Preseason Watch List.
Yeah, he's that good.
I brought up the altitude earlier, cause the Cowboys have had a great deal of success hosting teams from east of the Mississippi River. Wyoming is 7-1 since 2000 against teams from east of the Mississippi, including wins over Ole Miss (37-32) of the SEC in 2004, and a 2007 victory over the ACC's Virginia (23-3).
Part of that run is a 2-1 mark against teams out of the Mid-American Conference (MAC), like these Rockets.
This is the right side of this game, as the Cowboys get it done.
3♦ WYOMING
Matt Rivers
Your free play for Saturday is to grab the Washington Huskies plus the points as they play in Baton Rouge against the LSU Tigers.
Could the Bayou Bengals blow out the Huskies? Sure, there is a chance of that happening, but since Les Miles is still breaking in his first year quarterback, and since LSU could not cover the big numbers against North Texas last weekend, I will look for the improved Huskies defense to be able to keep this game within earshot as U-Dub acquits themselves admirably under the lights in the Bayou.
Washington's new defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox came over from Tennessee in an effort to shore up Washington's defense, and the Huskies did record four sacks last weekend in their 21-12 home win over San Diego State at home in a game they led 21-6 after three quarters.
On the offensive end, QB Keith Price is as good as they come and will be able to keep the Huskies inside of this roomy impost.
LSU has had their issues covering against non-conference opponents of late, as they have failed 6 of their last 7 versus non-conference foes, and only 3-8 their last 11 in that situation.
No upset shocker here, but this game is a tad closer than the public expects.
Take Washington plus the points.
1♦ WASHINGTON