SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner for today is on the Pittsburgh Pirates in Colorado, against the Rockies. It's about time the National League Central division leaders turn things around and get it done in Denver, after a couple of pitching rematches from last week served up revenge for the Rockies.
But we all know the Bucs are the better team, and it's clear the Pirates can't leave outta here being swept by a mediocre Rockies team.
The Rockies haven't completed a sweep in nearly four months, and I don't think they stand a chance to do so tonight against a pissed-off Pirates team that is out to prove it will not get stuck in losing streaks in the second half this season.
Lay the road chalk.
4* PITTSBURGH
BRAD WILTON
Sunday's comp play is the Under in the Marlins-Braves contest.
Last night's game saw only 1 run scored between the teams, and that was courtesy of a wild pitch.
Atlanta could only muster 3 singles last night, and today they must face Henderson Alvarez who has allowed only 7 runs over his last 34 innings, with the Under going 4-0-1 the last 5 trips he has made to the hill.
Mike Minor counters for Atlanta, and he is on a 3-1 run with a 1.74 ERA the last 6 times he has trotted out to the hill. He is also 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his 3 starts against the Marlins.
Miami is on a 19-6-1 Under run their last 26 games overall, and I am feeling a low-scoring game in the cards for today's contest.
2* MIAMI-ATLANTA UNDER
CHRIS JORDAN
My free play for Sunday is on the Atlanta Braves Run Line, as they'll be up to make up for yesterday's loss to the lowly Miami Marlins, a setback that ended the 14-game win streak the N.L. Tribe was enjoying.
Isn't it quite obvious what's going on here. We've made some money with the Braves during this 14-1 win streak, so it's not as if I'm jumping on a winning bandwagon too late. Just jumping in where I see an opportunity. And revenge is always a good reason.
Despite last night's loss, the Braves are still streaking impressively, while the Marlins are as bad as ever. It just makes sense. I know the Braves' win streak has come to an end, but I'm not going to worry here, only going to worry about staying on board.
The Braves averaged about 6 runs per game during their win streak and come into this game with the best home mark in the majors at 39-16. They're 8-1 at Turner Field since the All-Star break so you can see why I want to lay the run line in this one. And by the way, don't worry who is pitching. If there is a scratch, be sure to re-wager the game, as I like the Braves.
2* ATLANTA
Doug Upstone
Padres vs. Reds
Play: Under 8½
For Sunday we have Two FREE Plays from the same baseball system. PLAY UNDER on the Ohio tag team of Cincinnati and Cleveland, after a game where they committed three or more errors, with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is WHIP 1.100 or lower over his last 10 games. Since 2009, this MLB system is 40-11, 78.4 percent and the average total score has been 6.9 runs.
Dave Price
San Francisco Giants -111
The Giants have been a quality investment in interleague play at home where they have won 27 of their last 37. Scheduled starter Matt Cain has found his ace stuff and has held 10 of the last 11 teams he's faced to three earned runs or less. Keep in mind the Giants are 5-0 in Cain's last five home starts versus winning clubs. The Orioles aren't familiar with Cain at all, and I believe they'll be in for a rude awakening as a result. Bud Norris' clubs are 0-3 in his last three starts versus the Giants. The last two losses came in games where he was outdueled by Cain. Take San Francisco.
Steve Janus
Chicago White Sox -132
This is a solid price to get the White Sox at home in a game where they have a huge edge on the mound. Chicago's Jose Quintana is one of the few bright spots for the White Sox in 2013. He's 6-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 23 starts and comes in with a 2.89 ERA over his last three starts. He will be opposed by Minnesota's Kevin Correia, who has not been good on the road. Correia is 2-7 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 11 road starts. In his last two appearances away from home, he's allowed a combined 12 runs on 14 hits in a mere 3 and 2/3 innings of work.
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANAPOLIS -4 over Buffalo
Last season the Colts over/under win total for the year was 5½ games. They destroyed that number by winning 11 games under first year coach Chuck Pagano. This season, Pagano is even more determined. The Colts have added several key components, especially to the offensive line to give QB Andrew Luck better protection and to establish a stronger running game and a more balanced attack. The Colts are also going to use plenty more offensive schemes, utilizing more check-downs and underneath routes for Luck. The Colts may also be the healthiest team in the NFL and they are not going to take it easy here. Pagano has openly stated that he wants to come out strong, especially on defense and special teams. There is a strong emphasis in this game for the Colts to put pressure on the QB and to finish tackles. Pagano set the tone last season with a resounding 38-3 win in the teams’ preseason opener and we all saw what followed after that. A sell-out crowd is expected and every player is excited to get back on the field. Expect Andrew Luck to play at least two series followed by veteran Matt Hasselbeck, who has been sharp in camp and who could certainly rip apart a group of second and third string defenders.
As for the Bills, well, they have added some nice pieces in the off-season but expect to see very little of any of them here. Some starters may play a series or two but new head coach, Doug Marrone will get them out of there quickly. Many of the Bills starters are not even suiting up for this one because of nagging but not serious injuries. Don't expect Bills defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to unveil many of his defensive schemes either. Limited snaps from key defensive components Kyle Williams and Mario Williams will mute that in the preseason opener. The Bills are also forced to go with two raw rookie QB’s in EJ Manuel and Jeff Tuel. The Bills have practiced fast, calling their plays as quickly as they can to keep the defense on its heels but this isn’t a practice squad test. This is the real thing against a determined defense. Both Manuel and Teul have very little chance of success here. The Bills are extremely weak in the defensive backfield and that’s with their first stringers. It’s been reported that the secondary has gotten beaten regularly in training camp and now they have to face Andrew Luck and won't catch much of a break when Hasselbeck enters. Buffalo is going with a lot of rookies today. Two rookie QB’s, rookies on both offense and defense and a rookie head coach. Expect plenty of mistakes from these Bills and expect the Colts to capitalize on them. Pagano set a tone last year and we expect him to do the same this year. Bills will be better, or at least more exciting this season but not in their opener on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +104 over SAN FRAN
After being in pennant races for the past few years, not to mention a couple of World Series victories, the Giants find themselves in last place in the NL West, 14 games back of the Dodgers. One could fully understand how difficult it must be for the Giants to be stay motivated these days with the end in sight. Another problem that San Fran faces here is that the Orioles lead the majors in jacks with 154 and that could pose a problem for Matt Cain. You see, Cain has a fly-ball bias profile to go along with an 11% hr/f rate, which does not bode well against these power-hitting Orioles. Cain has not allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts but three of those came at home against the Brewers, Cubbies and D-Backs. These Orioles are far more dangerous than that group. Cain also gets very little run support. In fact, the Giants have scored two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and when you factor in his 5.00 home ERA, it suggests his chances of losing here are far greater than his chances of winning. Cain has also seen an increase in his walk rate. Combine that with a 1.9 HR/9 with runners on base and it’s another problem that has been flammable at times this season. Cain is very appealing as a dog in certain spots but as the chalk in this spot, he is anything but.
Bud Norris was viewed as a #4-type starter when his name was being thrown out at the trade deadline, a perception that wasn't helped by the 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP he posted in July. Likewise, his skills dipped in July. Before giving up on Norris consider that he was pitching for the Astros for years and losing takes its toll. Suddenly, he winds up on a contender and his motivation and desire to do well skyrockets. Norris can pitch. He had a 93 mph average fastball in July and his swinging strike rate jumped from a nice 9.5% in to an upper-tier 10.8%. Only 10 starting pitchers in the AL had a higher swinging strike % in July than Norris did. Since coming over from the Astros, Norris is 2-0 in two starts after allowing just three earned runs over 12 frames. In those two starts in struck out 13 batters. Pitching for the playoff contending Orioles, a rejuvenated Bud Norris offers up all the value in this one.
Oakland +109 over TORONTO
R.A Dickey redefined the knuckleball game last season, adding speed to a pitch that normally relies on deception, and parlaying that into a Cy Young award and a big contract. However, Dickey has been unable to match 2012's success for a variety of reasons. The velocity on Dickey's "fast knuckleball" is down from 83 mph to 81. His groundball rate continues to deteriorate and his control has fallen by the wayside, resulting in limited xERA potential. Dickey's transformation from finesse to "power" pitcher looks to be short-lived, which would be fine if his control and groundball rate were along for the ride but they've regressed further, hindering his chance for recovery. At home, things get even worse for Dickey, where he has been taken yard nine times in his past five home starts. Dickey comes in with a 5.97 home ERA. Only once in 12 home starts has he kept the ball in the park and that came against the White Sox back in April. In 75 IP at the Rogers Center, Dickey has been hammered for 18 bombs. That’s a sick number that should not be ignored here.
A.J. Griffin has a 3.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP after 147 IP. With an average fastball velocity of 89.3 mph, it would seem that Griffin succeeds using means other than velocity. An analysis of his pitch movement confirms this assertion. His pitches have the second-most aggregate movement among AL starters. His curveball has been his biggest weapon. It's a pitch that has nearly nine inches of horizontal movement and eight inches of vertical movement. In 2012, batters had a .351 SLG% against his curveball. They have managed only a .302 SLG% against it so far in 2013. The movement he has gained on his curveball has made it a true plus pitch for him and it's a pitch that he uses often. With solid command against both LH and RH bats, Griffin and his curveball have the skills to post a strong ERA over the long haul. Also note that Griffin has enjoyed huge success against these Blue Jays hitters. Current Jays have just seven hits in 46 career AB’s against Griffin for a BA of just .152, making Griffin and the A’s even more appealing at a price.
John Ryan
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Texas Rangers
The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game comfortably. Just a few weeks ago, it looked like the A's were going to run away with the West, but Texas has begun to play some of their best baseball and have taken over the lead in the West. They cannot afford to lose to the Astros or any losing record team down the stretch. I strongly believe they will be very cognizant of that fact and will look to get out to a very early lead and then attack the Astros very weak an depleted bullpen. Houston is a miserable money burning 3-22 (-15.7 Units) against the money line when facing AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Take Texas.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago White Sox -132
Minnesota's Kevin Correia has struggled to say the least. The Twins have lost each of his last 3 starts while he's posted a 13.03 ERA. They've also dropped 7 of his last 8 starts overall. Correia has been a dead fade on the road all season, going 2-7 with a 6.87 ERA in 11 starts. Chicago's Jose Quintana, who has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 7 straight starts, is 6-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 23 starts this season. He has a 2.89 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 3.30 ERA at home. The Sox have won 3 of his last 4 home starts. Bet the South Siders.
Wunderdog
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -133
The Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog with a weak offense, 21st in runs scored and 22nd in slugging. This is the end of a seven-game trip for Minnesota, which included a double header on Friday. Starter Kevin Correia (7-8, 4.84 ERA) is no stopper, and has been throwing terrible with an 0-2 record and a 13.03 ERA his last three starts. The 32-year-old Minnesota starter has now completed just two or fewer innings in a start twice in his last three outings, and the Twins are 1-7 in Correia's last eight starts. Chicago has home field where they play their best ball, and have won three of the last five (all at home). Starter Jose Quintana (6-3, 3.51 ERA) is very good, and has a 2.89 ERA his last three starts. The White Sox are 15-4 in Quintana's last 19 starts following a quality start in his last appearance, so grab home field. Play the White Sox.
Harry Bondi
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Buffalo
Indy Head Coach Chuck Pagano showed last pre-season that he liked to build confidence in his young team by winning pre-season games. After missing most of the regular season as he battled cancer, we look for Pagano to once again take the pre-season seriously and reestablish himself as the head coach. Colts were 3-1 ATS last pre-season and will be a money maker again this pre-season starting this afternoon.
Bob Balfe
Indianapolis Colts -3.5
The Buffalo Bills have a tough quarterback situation and its only going to get worst with two young quarterbacks playing the majority of the game today on the road. The Colts actually have a decent rotation and they have a serious package of really good and speedy wide receivers. This could be their year to advance deep into the playoffs. Take Indianapolis.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Dodgers -180
It seems like just yesterday that we were backing the Rays on a daily basis in their 24-5 run. Today they enter on a 4-7 slide including 4 consecutive losses. They have not scored a run in 13 innings. For the Dodgers, they continue their surge at 36-8 and 19-3. The mound opponents are a total mismatch. Hellickson has a 10-5 record but a 4.77 ERA due to the #3 run support in MLB at 6.5 runs/game. But that rubberband has snapped as in his last 2 starts, Hellickson is 0-2 allowing 9 runs in 9 IP. In Interleague play, Hellickson is 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA. Far prefer Kershaw, the best pitcher in MLB, with a 1.91 ERA and 1.88 OBA. That includes a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP from this mound. In his last 8 starts, Kershaw has allowed just 11 runs in 61 IP with a 53/5 KBB. Run line players take note: 27/36 Dodger wins in their current streak have come by 2 or more runs. Consider making the run line a part of your wager.
Andrew Lange
Texas at Houston
Play: Texas -1.5
There were times this year where the Houston Astros played some halfway decent baseball but as a whole, they've been overwhelmed by the American League. Since July, the 'Stros are 7-26. And with the departure of Bud Norris, there simply aren't very main quality arms left in the rotation. Dallas Keuchel has grinded out a few quality starts but he's a very fringe MLB arm. He's allowed 17 home runs in just over 100 innings and over his last three appearances (9.2 IP) he's allowed 11 earned runs. Meanwhile Martin Perez has a lot of potential. I watched him closely his last two starts and came away very impressed. Here's a hard throwing left-hander with downward movement on his pitches who is starting to show the ability to miss bats. Perez is coming off a season-high 111 pitches, but he's barely north of 100 innings between his time in the minors and in majors. He should be good to go against the Astros and a worthy candidate of laying the -1.5 runs.