Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday August, 12

Jim Feist

Yankees vs Blue Jays
Pick: Over

The Yankees held Toronto to just two runs on Saturday for their 67th win of the season, fourth straight and seventh in their last 10 games. The Yankees still have a comfortable six game lead over second place Baltimore. Toronto is in last place in the AL East, has now lost five straight and eight of the last 10. The Yankees have turned around what started to be a terrible road trip, losing two straight to the Tigers. The Yankees then belted 26 runs with three straight road win. The Yankees beat Toronto on Friday 10-4 before scoring five more runs in Saturday's win. Phil Hughes starts for the Yankees with a 11-9 record and 4.10 ERA. Hughes has won two of his last three starts with lots of run support, getting 27 runs from the Yankees. J.A. Happ will start for Toronto. He's 7-10 this year with a 4.97 ERA. Happ doesn't have much of a pen behind him either. The pen has a 5.09 ERA at home this season with a 1.426 WHIP. Price is too steep to take the Yankees here on the road, but I expect them to keep scoring runs in bunches. Take the OVER.

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers and Rangers wrap up their three games series Sunday afternoon at the Ballpark in Arlington where Rick Porcello toes the slab for Detroit. Porcello enters the game having won each of his last five team starts in a row during the month of August, while going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last two starts in this park. With Rangers rookie Yu Darvish in struggling current form with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts, look for the Tigers to improve to 16-3 on Sundays, their best day of the week this season, here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Boston Red Sox

We went against Boston on Saturday and cashed the big MLB Dog of the month on Cleveland. Today , however we are Back on Boston as we note that Road favorites in this range, off a road favored loss by 2 or more runs while scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits have won 20 of the last 25 times vs an opponent off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs with no more than 1 error. Boston averages over 5 runs per game in day games, while the Indians have lost 8 of 11 in August and 10 of the last 13 vs teams under .500. Lester goes for Boston and he is 4-1 vs Cleveland and has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts here spanning 13 innings. Kluber makes the start for Cleveland and he has a 6.10 era this season and could struggle vs a potent Boston Lineup.

Dave Cokin

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
Pick: Colorado Rockies

Colorado is lousy, but I'm just not buying Barry Zito as this heavy chalk, and it's not like the Giants are killing it with their offense. Worth chasing the price here with Alex White and the Rockies.

Dave Essler

Cleveland Indians +1.5 -115

You guys that have followed along at home all year know that a home team with the last at bat and a free run at this price is almost an auto-bet for me. Yes, it's been standard operating procedure to fade Cleveland against left-handed pitching, but we were on them last night when they beat Morales, who quite frankly IMO is more dangerous than Lester right now. Kipnis probably won't play, but that's fine because he didn't play last night and doesn't hit Lester anyway.

Cluber can be had or he can be tough, but with Middlebrooks out, along with Nava, Sweeney, and of course Ortiz, only the top of the Boston lineup is really capable of doing damage. What really strike me here is that over the last week the Boston bullpen has sported and ERA of 7.41, and only once in the last ten starts has Lester pitched past the seventh inning. The Indians bullpen is far more rested, and yes I realize that they've had their issues, but they've showed signs of life of late.

Lester himself is 0-5 and Boston is 1-6 in his last seven starts, and his ERA is 7.49. With those numbers, even against a team that has had issues against LHP, we've got to take the home team with a free run. The Indians look to win a series on Sunday while Boston has their bags packed for Baltimore. The weather should be overcast, possible showers, and a fairly stiff breeze blowing in from left. The total appears to be dropping, giving that much more value to the run line.

We don't need Cleveland to win, although I think they will, but at this price we'll make this bet almost every time.

Scott Delaney

Today's freebie will be on the Kansas City Royals, and I'm going to list Bruce Chen in this situation, as I think he's catching a value number in Baltimore.

See, Chen is coming into this one after snapping a seven-game winless drought in his last outing, as he allowed two runs over 6-2/3 innings against the White Sox. And it's really no surprise he abruptly turned things aroun, as the left-hander is 20-9 with a 3.88 ERA in August for his career.

Chen also comes into this Sunday matinee with revenge on the brain, as he lost to Baltimore on May 25, after allowing six runs in four innings.

The Royals have now won four of their last five ont he road an nine of 12 versus American League East teams, while the Orioles have lost four of Tommy Hunter's last five starts.

Give me the underdog in this one.

3♦ KANSAS CITY

Craig Davis

Free play winner yesterday on the Yankees, now 58-38 with my comp plays.

Today's free play is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Blue Jays.

It's pretty clear that Yankees pitchers have taken advantage of a beat-up Toronto offensive lineup this weekend. Phil Hughes is next in line to get his chance this afternoon as the Yanks go for a three-game road sweep.

The Blue Jays (53-60) have lost five straight, getting held to 10 runs and batting .168. Still no Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind or J.P Arencibia.

So, Phil Hughes (11-9, 4.10 ERA) will look to take advantage after going 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his first two starts against Toronto this year. He's 0-3 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three road outings, but has a lot of confidence against this team.

The Jays counter with J.A. Happ (0-1, 6.35 ERA) and faces a NY lineup that is 24-14 against left-handed starters.

Derek Jeter had two hits Saturday to take his league-leading total to 150. Jeter and Hank Aaron are the only players to record 17 straight seasons with at least that many hits... amazing.

Take the Yankees on the run line as your free play of the day.

3♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the Washington Nationals over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I am pretty sure the Nats will suffer another loss before the season is over, but with eight straight wins, and eight straight road wins as well, today is not the day I look for Washington to go down to defeat.

This Nationals team is a legitimate contender to play very deep into the month of October, and they have outscored the opposition 46-23 during their current eight game winning streak.

Arizona enters on a 2-6 slide, and any momentum they may have had has fallen by the wayside this weekend against the Nats. Rookie Patrick Corbin is 1-0 in his pair of starts since his recall, but he is in over his head against the Nationals in this spot.

Washington is just rolling right now, and starter Ross Detwiler has allowed just 2 earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Look for Detwiler to give Washington another quality start, and for the Nationals to up their overall winning streak and their road winning streak to nine in a row.

3♦ WASHINGTON

Chris Jordan

My free winner for tonight is going to be the Los Angeles Dodgers, down in South Beach, against the Miami Marlins.

Said it yesterday, and I'll say it again for today's matinee at Marlins Park: this is a perfect road trip for the Dodgers to make a nice little run at the San Francisco Giants, who pulled back to one-game ahead in the National League West, by beating the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers losing to the Marlins coupled perfectly.

Now the Dodgers owe me.

And I still believe the Dodgers couldn't have asked for a better situation, as they arrived in South Beach after a day off, following a 6-4 win over the Colorado Rockies. This, inevitablty, is an important road trip for the Dodgers, and realistically, it began with the first game of this series. So even after last night's loss, they're still feeling condfident.

It's go-time for the Dodgers, as they have to take advantage of their momentum and play with must-win mentality.

Take the Dodgers.

2♦ L.A. DODGERS

Chuck O'Brien

Yep, for the third straight day I'm giving you another high-priced underdog. I love the price I see on the feisty Oakland Athletics, with veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon up, against the Chicago White Sox. Now I won't list the South Siders' Chris Sale, cause obviously I wouldn't mind if he got scratched.

No biggie if the Sox's left-hander goes, as I see his ERA is over 5.00 in his last three starts. And with the way the Athletics have been playing lately, it wouldn't necessarily matter is Sale was at his best.

But this one is more about Colon, who continued his scoreless streak last Tuesday, running it up to a career-high 22-1/3 innings. Granted, he watched it come to an abrupt end due to an unearned Angels run in the seventh inning, but the aging righty hasn't surrendered an earned one since July 22. He's a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts, while the A's have won six of the last seven times he's been installed as the underdog.

List Colon and play the pup.

2♦ OAKLAND

Matt Rivers

Sunday's free play is the Under in the Tampa Bay-Minnesota contest.

James Shields and Scott Diamond are a pair of hot hurlers right now, and they will see to it that this series finale at Target Field lands Under the total.

Shields is looking for his third straight win, and has allowed just one run to cross over his last 17 innings pitched, while allowing only five hits in that span. Three of his last four starts have wound up holding Under the total.

Meanwhile, Scott Diamond sports a season ERA of 2.91, and his splits both at home (2.44 ERA), and during the day (2.06 ERA), should tell you all you need to know about just how many runs the Rays will be plating this afternoon.

Seven of Tampa Bay's last nine games have played Under the total, and six of the past nine games played between the teams have also held Under the total.

Tampa and Minny to hold low.

2♦ TAMPA BAY-MINNESOTA UNDER

Dom Chambers

The Tampa Bay Rays came through for me on the run line for my seventh straight free-play winner. That puts my current run at 24-9.

Let’s go for No. 8 in a row with the Oakland A’s as an underdog to beat the Chicago White Sox.

For the A’s, Bartolo Colon gets the start and he’s on a roll right now where nobody is hitting him. He has not given up an earned run in his last 22 2/3 innings.

In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.97. The White Sox may score, but they are not going to pile up the runs against Colon.

For the White Sox, Chris Sale starts, Overall, he is 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA. He was on fire early in the season, but has stumbled lately. In his last three starts, he is 2-1, but his ERA is 5.06. He has been getting some run support.

Against Colon, he may not have that luxury.

Oakland is one of the top teams since the All-Star break and Colon is one of the reasons for their surge in the standings. The A’s have won three of their last four games, while the White Sox have lost three of their last four games.

Take the better pitcher with a team that has the momentum.

2♦ A'S

Ross King

St Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: St Louis Cardinals

Lance Lynn 13-5 on the season while St.Louis is 45-28 on Sundays the last 3 seasons.Philadelphia currently 1-9 as a home underdog of pick to + 125 and currently on Sundays they are 6-13.Philadelphia currently versus teams with a winning record are 26-41.Take St.Louis with the better pitcher and overall team to get the the win being only a game and a half out of the wildcard picture as your freeplay winner.

Bryan Power

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

This series has certainly not gone 'according to script' from the Pirates perspective as they have shockingly dropped two straight to San Diego, winners of six straight, first blowing a big lead in Friday's opener and then getting shut out yesterday in a 5-0 loss.

Today, I look for Pittsburgh to avoid the sweep behind Erik Bedard, who looked very sharp in his previous start where he allowed no runs and only two hits over seven innings - a 4-0 win over Arizona here at PNC Park. At home this season, Bedard has been strong all season with a 2.38 ERA in 10 starts. After suffering back to back losses, the Pirates no longer own MLB's best home mark, but they're still 35-20 at PNC Park, including 21-10 when favored. The team is also 24-14 this year in day games.

San Diego is only 15-24 vs. left-handers this season scoring 3.7 rpg. Their own starter Ross Ohlendorf has yet to win in four road starts (9.54 ERA). Somehow, the Padres have won eight straight times here at PNC. I look for that streak to come to an end as the Pirates are 9-1 this season at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they scored one run or less.