Jesse Schule
Detroit vs. Texas
Pick: Detroit
Last night's game between the Tigers and Rangers turned into a pitcher's duel, with the Rangers winning in dramatic fashion by a score of 2-1, scoring the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. With the series tied at a game a piece, the rubber match will go this afternoon with Rick Porcello facing off against Yu Darvish.
Darvish (11-8, 4.57 ERA) is winless in his last three starts, and has only one win in his last six outings. He allowed six runs on 11 hits, while walking four batters over six innings in a 9-2 loss at Boston in his last start. He has been downright terrible over his last three starts, conceding at least six runs and three walks in each of the three. Walks have been a serious issue for Darvish all season long, he has now allowed 74 walks on the season, in 134 innings of work.
Prince Fielder is 2 for 5 with a home run this season versus Darvish.
Detroit will send Rick Porcello to the mound this afternoon, looking for his third consecutive victory. Porcello (9-6, 4.62 ERA) hasn't been great, but he has kept the Tigers in the game and given them a chance to win. He allowed three runs on eight hits, including a home run, going just over six innings in a 6-5 victory over the Yankees his last time out. Prior to that he gave up four runs on eight hits, in just five innings, but getting the decision in a 7-5 win over Boston.
I don't expect Porcello to get out of this game unscathed, but I think he can get the job done.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +129 over TEXAS
Yu Darvish's is 8-2 with a 2.91 ERA when facing teams for the first time but he’s just 3-5 with a 6.45 ERA when starting against teams he has already faced. He’s already faced the Tigers. There are more problems than that. His wildness is catching up to him, as his 21 walks over his last five starts have helped to increase his ERA from 3.45 to its current 4.57. He now has issued 74 walks in 134 innings. His xERA over the last month was a major-league worst 7.76. Combine wildness with the difference in the Japanese workload structures and the size of the baseball in Japan and the result is potentially disastrous.
Detroit’s offense has been going better than Texas’ since the break (.801 OPS vs. .759). Despite the split in the first two games of this series, the Rangers still only managed to score four runs.
The Tigers have won seven of Rick Porcello’s last eight starts. They’ve scored six runs or more in all of those wins. Porcello isn’t going to dazzle but what he will do is induce a lot of groundballs (53%), keep the Tigers in the game and get plenty of run support. This one is all about taking back a decent tag against a pitcher who is simply running out of gas under unfamiliar conditions.
N.Y. METS +104 over Atlanta
The small price on the Braves instantly caught our eye, as they are the hottest team in the majors (14 wins in their last 17 games), Ben Sheets is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA while the Mets are one of the coldest teams in the league. Also note that this is ESPN’s Sunday Night game, meaning that the books are quite aware there is going to be extra betting interest on it. This featured game has trap written all over it.
Ben Sheets made a name for himself as a premier pitcher back in early 2000’s. However, prior to this year, Sheets made just 20 starts in 2010 while missing all of ’09. He also missed significant time back in ’05, ’06 and ’07. Atlanta took a flyer on him and before his call-up, he made two Double-A starts and allowed six earned runs in 10 innings. In his five starts, he has a troublesome groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 38%/29%/33%. Note the high line-drive rate of 29%. Also note that Sheets has a very fortunate strand rate of 89% and that he did not strike out a batter in his last start. Balls are getting whacked against Sheets but everything has been right at people. That will change. Sheets’ expected ERA of 3.88 (5.33 over his last two starts) strongly suggests that his comeback is all a mirage and the truth will emerge.
Atlanta is just 9-13 on the road against lefties and they’ll now face a good one in Jonathan Niese. He has 116 K’s and just 36 walks in 137 frames. Niese suffered with a 55% strand rate in July, the lowest rate of any starter with at least 20 IP that month. He has posted outstanding skills for four months running and his control is now on a four-year increase. With a lot of bad luck, Niese still has a 3.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Imagine what those numbers would look like with some bounces going his way. If you were leaning Atlanta because of the small tag on them, we urge you to view this game with extreme caution, as the line tells us that the books may feel differently.
Jimmy Boyd
Oakland A's +145
The A's, who have the same number of wins as Chicago, are showing value as this heavy of an underdog with Bartolo Colon on the bump.
The A's have won each of his last 4 starts and 8 of his last 10. He is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, he has shined on the road all season, going 6-2 (7-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.60. The Athletics are 6-1 in Colon's last 7 starts as an underdog.
Chicago's Chris Sale is having a terrific season, but he hasn't been as good lately. He has given up 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts and is carrying a 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts. We'll take the A's.
Erin Rynning
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Play: Tampa Bay
The red-hot Rays will try for the sweep today in Target Field against the Twins. The Rays will send James Shields to the mound in this contest. He’s been in vintage form of late, with 37 strikeouts over his last four outings. This correlates with recent tweaks to his mechanics he made in July after watching video from last season. Keep in mind Shields owned a 2.82 ERA last year. Meanwhile, the Twins will send Scott Diamond to the hill. The southpaw shows a sturdy 2.91 ERA on the campaign – one of the few bright spots for the Twins. However, he’s recorded just 62 strikeouts in 114 innings of work, which just doesn’t equate to a sub-3.00 ERA. This will be a tough test for him as well from a lineup perspective. The Rays recently featured the return of right-handed slugger Evan Longoria and are expected to have seven or eight right-handed hitters in their lineup this afternoon – a nice recipe vs. southpaw Diamond. Look for Shields and the Rays to continue to roll this afternoon.
Lenny Del Genio
Seattle vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA Angels -1.5
With Jered Weaver on the hill, the Angels are huge money line favorites, so we'll take our chances on the Run Line and lay the -1.5 Sunday vs. Seattle. With Weaver going, an Angels victory is all but assured. He has become arguably the "safest bet" in baseball. Last time out, he threw a complete game shutout vs. Oakland, winning 4-0 w/ a 9-0 KW ratio. It was the ninth straight start he won. The Angels are 12-0 his L12 starts w/ Weaver 10-0. Here at home, he's been unbeatable - literally - going 8-0 in nine starts (9-0 TSR). His ERA is 0.92 at home, which is obviously ridiculous. We have yet to mention how he's completely dominated Seattle throughout his career, he's 12-4 w/ a 3.08 ERA in 22 starts, including 7-0 at home (1.78 ERA) in 11 starts. His L10 starts vs. the Mariners have seen him go 6-1 w/ a 1.07 ERA. The Angels are 33-14 L47 vs. Seattle. You get the picture.
GoodFella
St Louis Rams +1
I like the QB depth here for the Rams, as they simply have more experience, as my Oregon boy Clemons will back up Bradford & the rookie from S.Miss (Davis) has impressed in camp. Rams under a new head coach in Fisher & I really think he wants to establish a new winning culture here with the franchise & perhaps the Rams "care a bit more" here today. Yes, Luck is set to play more than Bradford, but Luck IS a rookie & clearly he has a ton to learn, both system wise and in general the speed of the NFL. I will take the better QB's and a coach who IMO is looking to win as many of these pre-season games as he can. The Colts are 0-4 their L/4 HOME pre-season games & I look for the Rams to come away with the win today & I am on the RAMS here.
Tony George
A's / White Sox Under 8
Sale on the hill for the White Sox and Colon for the A's. Last night was a big score, expect a different result today. Runs will be at a premium, and neither pitcher puts allot of runners in scoring position.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -150
With Chris Sale on the mound today, the Chicago White Sox are worth the price. He remains one of the most underrated starters in the league despite his dominance.
Sale is 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 19 starts and one relief appearance this year. The left-hander has been untouchable at home, going 6-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.853 WHIP in nine starts.
The White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Chicago is 8-1 in Sale's last 9 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet Chicago Sunday.
Wunderdog
St. Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +1.5
It should be a whole new ballgame for the Indianapolis Colts this exhibition season. They had Peyton Manning forever, and they were typically no-shows in the preseason as Manning barely saw any action. After Tony Dungy departed, this didn't change with Jim Caldwell who was 2-10 in his three years in the NFL preseason. The Colts defense was on the field a year ago for a NFL high 33:46. That should change somewhat this year with Andrew Luck at QB as he is certainly capable of generating more out of this offense, and he needs reps. The Rams have been in a rebuilding mode for several years now, making very little progress. They have a new coach and no defensive coordinator right now, so things could get chaotic for this team in Game 1, as they also have a new offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer over from the Jets. The defense gave-up more yards and points last year than the year before, and don’t appear to have any guidance this season at least to start. Play on Indianapolis as they try to start the Luck era out with a win.
Wunderdog
Boston at Cleveland
Pick: Boston -155
Cleveland has fallen apart since the All Star break and it's not surprising, with a bottom five team ERA and an offense ranked 17th in runs and 21st in slugging. The Indians are on an 8-20 run and 3-12 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record. Corey Kluber (6.10 ERA) goes and has below average stuff allowing 19 base runners in ten innings. The Indians are 10-21 in their last 31 home games against a left-handed starter and face southpaw Jon Lester. Lester has been up and down, but is still a strong strikeout pitcher and is 4-1 in his career against Cleveland with a 3.53 ERA. Boston has an above average bullpen and an offense ranked second in runs scored, 12th in OBP and fourth in slugging. And the Red Sox are 7-3 in Lester's last ten starts vs. Indians. Play the Red Sox.
DAVID BANKS
Rams / Colts Under 34
The Andrew Luck era begins on Sunday afternoon when his Indianapolis Colts host the St. Louis Rams at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN at 1:30 ET, and it will be on a national stage as the contest will be carried live on NFL Network. Recent Colts' coaches have not cared at all about preseason, as Indianapolis is a dismal 5-25 straight up and 9-20-1 ATS in these games since 2005, but the combination of Luck's arrival and a new head coach in Chuck Pagano might instill a new attitude. The Rams have a new coach also and it was a big hire in Jeff Fisher, who was 31-25 straight up in preseason while in Tennessee.
Perhaps the most popular chant associated with the Colts last year was "Suck for Luck", and it worked as they finished at 2-14. They got their man and they also received a gift when Reggie Wayne unexpectedly resigned with the team. Luck loved throwing to his tight end in college, so he must also be thrilled that the Colts took his Stanford teammate Coby Fleener in this year's draft. While it is a given that Luck and Wayne are the starters, there are questions everywhere else, so the running game and the defense will bear watching in this contest. Donald Brown is the starting running back for now, but he is purely a speed back whereas offensive coordinator Bruce Arians prefers to play smash-mouth football, which is not surprising considering he came over from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brown's back-ups for now Delone Carter, rookie Vick Ballard, and Mewelde Moore are all more physical backs. As for the defense, Indianapolis is transitioning to a 3-4 formation this year, meaning that even veterans Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have to adjust to new positions on the field.
The Rams played well in preseason under the fired Steve Spagnuolo, even going 4-0 last year. However, that was twice as many wins as they recorded while going 2-14 once the real games started, which was especially disappointing after coming up just one win shy of winning the NFC West the previous year. That prompted the switch to the veteran Fisher, who will have quite a few positional battles to evaluate in this first game. The defensive secondary was terrible last year, so the Rams added veteran cornerback Cortland Finnegan and drafted Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson in the second and third rounds respectively, so all three can be expected to get long looks. On offense, the Rams had one of the weakest receiving corps in the NFL last year, and they have no fewer than 10 wide receivers and six tight ends fighting for jobs. Wide receiver Danny Amendola is back after dislocating his elbow in the first game of the regular season last year, and he should be one of the starters if healed, but the other positions are up for grabs. Steven Jackson returns at running back, but he is an "old" 29 years of age due to his heavy workload during his Rams' career.
This is Pagano's first assignment ever as an NFL head coach, while Fisher went 8-6 straight up in Week 1 of preseason while with Tennessee. The Rams as a team are 12-4 straight up and 11-5 ATS in preseason the last four years.