Hollywood Sports
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San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
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Coach Mike Singletary wants to instill a winning atmosphere in San Fran as they feel they can make a major push to win the NFC West this season. It is telling that the 49ers were 3-1 in Singletary's first preseason as head coach. On the other hand, coach Jim Caldwell felt no pressure to prove himself or test his new systems as Indy was just 1-3 in the preseason before making their run to the Super Bowl. The Colts are now on cruise control which helps explain why they are the underdog despite being at home. Don't expect to see too much of Peyton Manning in this game as Indy averaged only 12.5 PPG in the '09 preseason. With QBs David Carr along with 2nd-year man Nate Smith (Ball State) and rookie Jarrett Brown (West VA), San Fran enjoys a backup QB edge here as well. Lay the points with San Fran.
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Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders
Prediction: Edmonton Eskimos
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While the Eskimos are reeling with their 1-5 mark that has drastically dampened preseason expectations of a possible Grey Cup run, Edmonton has been competitive in most of their games before collapsing in the 4th quarter. Against Saskatchewan, Montreal and British Columbia, the Eskimos were collectively outscored 29-0 in the 4th quarter. Last week against Toronto, Edmonton blew a 28-19 lead to lose 29-28. But perhaps Edmonton has been a victim of bad luck. While the league leading Montreal Alouettes (and defending Grey Cup Champs) have lost only one of their seven fumbles this season, the Eskimos have lost seven of their eight fumbles. Sometimes its just a small difference between making a run for a championship and overhauling a franchise. But we take note of the fact that Edmonton has covered four of their last five games against their rivals in the West Division. And this team ranks #3rd in the CFL in passing yards behind QB Ricky Ray and #1st with their passing defense that holds their opponent's to just 231 yards per game. Now they are getting 8.5 points (as of this writing) against a Calgary team (5-1) that has won their last two games by a collective eight points. While this may look like a mismatch on paper, the Eskimos are a dangerous team as a big underdog. Take the points with Edmonton.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Denver went 2-2 ATS in the pre-season in 2009.
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The best phrase to describe the Broncos training camp this year would be: "injury plagued".
In fact they are the most injured team in the NFL right now; the biggest loss is that of star LB Elvis Dumervil; other notable losses include RB's Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, WR's Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, S Brian Dawkins and LB's D.J. Williams and Jarvis Moss; also remember that LT Ryan Clady is out until sometime in September
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We should be getting a look at Tim Tebow in this one, especially in short-yardage situations; that means that Denver will be using a three QB system on game days; Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tebow.
Orton will be the No. 1 guy during the regular season, and Tebow should eventually be his successor, but Quinn is expected to be his immediate backup; that's bad news for Broncos backers in this one as Quinn will see the majority of snaps in Cincinnati.
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I believe Denver will once again struggle this season; it started a surprising 6-0, and then lost eight of its final ten down the stretch in 2009.
At the other end of the field: The Bengals went 2-2 ATS in the pre-season in 2009.
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I of course had a play on Cincinnati in the "Hall of Fame Game" last week, and it was unable to muster any type of offense except for a meaningless TD at the end of the game.
Dallas picked off three passes and recovered a fumble; Cincinnati also recovered a fumble.
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The best thing the Bengals had going for them last week was their defense; Tony Romo led the Cowboys to the Cincinnati 2 yard line, but was held to just a FG.
The Bengals also had five sacks, including two by linebacker Michael Johnson.
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Rookie Jordan Shipley ran back a punt 63 yards in the closing moments of the game and Jordan Palmer connected with rookie TE Darius Hill for a 1-yard TD with under a minute remaining.
Bottom line: Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said it best at the end of the ugly and penalty prone 2010 "HOF" Game; “The best thing about it,” Phillips said, “is you see what you did and what you need to improve on.”
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That could not ring more true in this case as the Bengals have already had the advantage of playing their first pre-season game and will be able to make key and necessary adjustments to be more productive the second time around; when coupled with the home field advantage factor, you may want to consider a second look at the CINCINNATI BENGALS in this situation.
Marc Lawrence
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Florida Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Florida Marlins
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The Marlins and Reds wrap up a three-game series in Cincinnati this afternoon when Anibal Sanchez opposes Homer Bailey in the Queen City. Sanchez enters today's contest in solid current form having cashed in four of his last six road starts while also delivering the goods in three of his last four road starts during the month of August. Meanwhile, Bailey returns off a long stint off the DL knowing he is just 1-3 in four career home team starts during August. The Reds are also winless (0-2) behind Bailey in this series against the Fish. With that, look for the Marlins to capture the finale here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida.
Lee Kostroski
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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Dan Haren has pitched well in his starts as an Angel even though Los Angeles has just one win behind him and the odds of Los Angeles climbing back into the AL West race seem remote. Going back to his time in Arizona Haren has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts and so far he owns a 2.18 ERA at Angel Stadium with 0.97 WHIP. For the year Haren owns a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he should be in a favorable match-up against a strikeout prone Blue Jays lineup that is reliant on the home run.
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The Angels have won five of seven meetings between these teams even though Toronto currently features the superior record between these teams. Los Angeles sputtered on offense right after the All Star break but the team has topped four runs scored in eight of the last 13 games. The Angels still maintain a strong winning record at home at 32-26 and for the year the Blues Jays are batting .241 away from home. Toronto’s pitching staff continues to deliver inconsistent results, allowing five or more runs in six of the last ten games, including double-digits twice. Toronto is remarkably 7-3 in the last ten games despite allowing 4.7 runs per game.
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Ricky Romero has delivered several great starts this season but the Blue Jays are only 3-6 in his last nine games. In three of those games Romero has allowed five or more runs and his ERA over his last seven starts is 5.40. Romero is a pitcher that has far better numbers in his home starts, featuring a 2.62 ERA at home but a 4.33 ERA on the road. Romero owns a 1.43 WHIP in road games while Toronto has gone 6-7 in his road starts. Romero also had one of his worst starts of the season in Los Angeles, allowing eleven hits and seven runs in a 3-8 loss in late May.
JIM FEIST
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CHICAGO CUBS / ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
PLAY: CHICAGO CUBS
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Tona LaRusa returns to the bench after a 2-game suspension. This is good news for the Cards who have the majors 2nd best home record at 39-19, though they have lost three of their last five at home. Also returning today is pitcher Kyle Lohse, who hasn't pitched since May 22. Lohse is 1-1 this year with a 5.89 ERA. Lohse looked good in his triple-A rehab so he's brought up for the start today. The Cubs have handled Lohse pretty well, going 3-1 against him in nine starts. In fact, Lohse hasn't beaten the Cubs since 2007. Ryan Dempster has been one of the shining stars for the Cubs with his 10-8 record and 3.66 ERA. Dempster is going for his third straight win. Nice little dog here today with the Cubs and I'm not convinced Lohse is ready for big league ball quite yet. I'm going to take a shot with the underdog Cubs and see if Dempster can continue his fine pitching.
Gill Alexander
SFX -3.0 (-115) vs IND
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The 49ers might be reeling from the completely sudden and unexpected retirement of #2 running back Glen Coffee, but for preseason purposes, it just feels like an opportunity to me. Expect a whole bunch of Michael Robinson for the Niners in this one, or as Joe Paterno calls him, the greatest football player to ever play at Penn State. But this one is about much more than that. It's the super intense Mike Singletary against the barely alive Jim Caldwell. While that makes for a nice sound bite, it does reflect an approach to this game, as Singletary will have an opportunity to evaluate many things against the much more solidified Colts.
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A whole bunch of Colts are out of this one, including Jeff Saturday, Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dwight Freeney. And those are just the first teamers. The Colts will be working with Curtis Painter, Tom Brandstater, and Tim Hiller (after Peyton Manning's token appearance) while the Niners will have full-fledge quarterback party with Alex Smith, the named starter this year in SF if you're scoring at home, David Carr, and Nate Davis, all three more than capable of making things happen Sunday afternoon, not to mention Jarrett Brown in his debut.
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Normally in this situation I would write that the Colts are just trying to stay healthy in this one, but they have so many people out that even that mentality is out the window for Indy. But the horses left for them won't be able to keep up with a gun-to-gun effort from a Niners team who have bought into a head coach who says he wants to be known as the best of all-time when all is said and done. The NFC West sets up nicely for the Niners this season and Singletary and the 49ers staff will make sure that winning mentality begins here and now.
DUNKEL INDEX
Denver at Cincinnati
Former Heisman winner Tim Tebow looks to make his debut on the road today as the Broncos visit the Bengals. Denver is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2)
Game 277-278: San Francisco at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 118.251; Indianapolis 121.167
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 34
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Over
Game 279-280: Denver at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.744; Cincinnati 120.258
Dunkel Line: Even; 29
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 32 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under
MLB
Detroit at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox look to bounce back from yesterday's 3-2 loss and take advantage of a Detroit team that is 0-6 in its last 6 games following a win. Chicago is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145)
Game 951-952: Florida at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.146; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at NY Mets (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.643; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.458
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over
Game 955-956: Arizona at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Enright) 14.044; Washington (Strasburg) 14.292
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-185); Under
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.432; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.330
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); Over
Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.277; Houston (Happ) 14.848
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-160); Under
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.432; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.161
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Over
Game 963-964: Milwaukee at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.964; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.601
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+210); Over
Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.852; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.711
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-190); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.288; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.881
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Under
Game 969-970: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.579; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 15.909
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-255); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-255); Under
Game 971-972: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 14.541; White Sox (Garcia) 15.216
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 14.595; Kansas City (Bullington) 14.608
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+190); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.510; Minnesota (Slowey) 17.340
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Under
Game 977-978: Boston at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.307; Texas (Wilson) 16.379
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under
Game 979-980: Toronto at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.398; LA Angels (Haren) 15.005
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over
WNBA
Indiana at Connecticut
The Sun look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in the last 7 meetings between the two teams in Connecticut. Connecticut is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-1)
Game 601-602: Seattle at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 112.228; Washington 118.516
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+8 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Indiana at Connecticut (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.070; Connecticut 114.793
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 1; 156
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-1); Over
Game 605-606: San Antonio at Minnesota (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 107.885; Minnesota 113.183
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4 1/2); Under
CFL
Edmonton at Calgary
The Stampeders look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in the last 7 meetings between the two teams in Calgary. Calgary is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8 1/2)
Game 447-448: Edmonton at Calgary (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 105.713; Calgary 116.131
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Calgary by 8 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8 1/2); Under
Tom Freese
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Blue Jays at Angels
Prediction: Under
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Since coming over to Anaheim Dan Haren has allowed 9 runs total in his 4 starts. The Angels are 9-3 UNDER their last 12 games vs. lefty starters and they are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 home games. The Halos are 5-2-1 UNDER off a win and they are 5-1-2 UNDER when their opponent allows 5 or more runs in their last game. Toronto starter Ricky Romero has allowed 3 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Blue Jays are 5-1-1 UNDER in game 3 of a series. Toronto is 45-21-6 UNDER their last 72 meetings with the Angles. The Blue Jays are 5-1-1 UNDER in game 3 of a series.
Steve Merril
Pirates vs. Astros
Play: Under 8
J.A. Happ has enjoyed his time in Houston so far. He's 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three outings for the Astros. The lefty will make his fourth start against the Pirates on Sunday afternoon. He faced Pittsburgh twice last season giving up just four runs and 11 hits in 15 innings pitched. Andy LaRoche (1-7), Garrett Jones (1-7), Delwyn Young (1-6), Ryan Doumit (0-5), Lastings Milledge (0-4), and Chris Snyder (0-2) all struggle with the lefty. The Pirates have scored just nine runs in their last five games on the road. As a team, they are hitting just .233 on the road while averaging slightly below 3 runs per game. This series has produced six Unders in the nine meetings so far this season. Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens has pitched well as of late. The righty is 0-2 with a 2.65 ERA giving up just five runs over his last 17 innings of work. Karstens faced the Astros three times last season. He gave up 11 runs and 19 hits over 16.7 innings pitched in those games. Jeff Keppinger (2-10), Carlos Lee (2-8), Michael Bourn (2-8), Geoff Blum (0-4), and Pedro Feliz (0-1) all struggle with Karstens. Houston has scored just 11 runs in their last four games. They have gone Under the total in 31 of their 60 home games where they are averaging just over 3.5 runs per game. We expect a low-scoring game here so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Pirates and Astros this afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5
The Rockies fit a solid system here that plays on home favorites of -200 or more that are off a home favored loss, if they scored 4 or less runs with 4 or less men left on base. If their opponent is off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs with 10 more hits, than these home favorites win over 85% of the time. However with such a high line we will use the run line at -1.5 and -120. Most of the wins in this system have been blowouts. Colorado has U. Jimenez on the mound and he has superior numbers compared to Milwaukee starter M. Parra. Look for Colorado to coast here today.
BIG AL
Pirates @ Astros
PICK: Under 8
Add Pittsburgh's little-known righthander Jeff Karstens' name to the list of starters who are getting ridiculously low run support in 2010. Karstens, who stepped into a full-time starting role somewhat unexpectedly - as many Pirate hurlers do - has been getting very little respect from the Pirate batters this season as they have scored only about 2.7 runs on average for Karstens in his games as a starting pitcher. The problem has gotten more severe lately as in his last six starts, Pittsburgh has only managed a total of 11 runs, or an average of less than two per game. Not surprisingly, the Pirates are 0-6 in his last six times to the mound, mostly through no fault of Karstens, as the 27-year-old has pitched pretty well in almost all of those. Lefthander J.A. Happ gets his fourth start in an Astros uniform since being acquired in the deal that sent ace Roy Oswalt to the Phillies and don't let Happ's 5.40 ERA with his new team fool you. Happ has had two great starts at home and one very bad one on the road, and it was against the tough Cardinals to boot. This afternoon should see Happ return to the form that he displayed in his prior three 2010 starts at Minute Maid Park (he had his first start of the season there when he was still with Philadelphia and pitched five innings of shutout ball). He also has a 2.40 career ERA against the Bucs. The under is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings of these two teams in Houston heading into Sunday. Take the 'under.'
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 -114
The Rocks have the big edge on the hill with Jimenez, who is a perfect 8-0 (9-1 on the money line) in 10 home starts this season. It is also worth noting that all 9 of those victories have come by 2 or more runs. Jimenez has also been extremely dominant in day starts, going 10-2 with a 1.97 ERA in day games this season. Compare that to the Brewers' Parra, who is 1-3 (1-4 on the money line), with an ERA of 9.12 in day starts. Parra also enters this contest at 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.06 over his last 3 outings. The Rockies are 17-1 with Jimenez on the mound as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 7.1 to 2.7. Take the Rockies on the run line.
EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers -142
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The Texas Rangers starting pitcher CJ Wilson is having a great season. Wilson is 10-5 this season with an ERA of 3.30 and he has dominated this Boston lineup this season. In two starts against the Red Sox this season Wilson is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.68. Wilson has allowed only one earned run and seven hits in thirteen and one third innings and has struck out twelve Boston batters in that span. The Red Sox send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the mound for this start. Dice-K has been pitching okay recently, but the high amount of batters that he walks is a concern and I expect the Rangers to capitalize on that in this game. Dice-K doesn't eat up a lot of inning and I expect him to make an early exit in the hot Texas heat in this game. The Rangers are 17-4 in Wilson's last twenty one starts and I expect him to pitch another strong game here. The Red Sox are only 1-8 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Arlington. Play on Texas.
Brad Diamond
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
The Pirates behind RHP Karstens are 0-6 in his last six outings. Plus the struggling Bucs are 2-7 on Sunday’s with Karstens. More important, Pittsburgh has been decimated by lefties as documented by their 14-44 record of late. A. J. Happ (2-1, 3.45) has been in fine form with Houston and actually may have found a club he can pitch for the next 10 years. Finally, the Astros are 5-0 at home versus a team with a losing road mark of under .400. Lay the wood with the Astros.
Gill Alexander
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FLA (+110) vs CIN
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Sanchez has a 3.24FIP (15th best in MLB) and 4.28xFIP w a .319BABIP. He also has a 0.33 HR/9IP (3rd best in MLB) which is a key metric against a potent offensive club like the Reds. He has 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings. Bailey has a 4.70FIP and 4.65xFIP w a .316BABIP. He hasn't pitched since May 23rd. When he did pitch earlier this season, he had a terrible 6.91ERA at home. More than that, right-handed batters hit .288 off of him. Whenever a club sends out a starter v Fla that gets raked by righties, the Marlins have the edge, as Hanley Ramirez, Cody Ross, Dan Uggla, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez, and more all are right-handed batters. Unlike Friday night when Josh Johnson arrived in Cincy at 4:30am the morning of the game, Sanchez has no such issues in this one. Let's confidently play the numbers and grab the Marlins as a slight dog.