JR O'Donnell
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CLE (+130) vs SEA
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Ugly and nasty today goes the Oster as the Cleveland Indians spin a gem today home vs the Seattle M's who check in @ 46-71 over all. The Indians are dangerous in this spot and we will fade King Felix and the right-handers 0-3 mark & with a 3.27 ERA as of late. Winning boys is all spots and feel and we will fire away on the Masterson lead tribe! The Jr O power stats have this baby @ a pickem and the Vegas lines makers are over valuing the M's . Here is a huge hidden stat! Masterson is a smooth 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA is 5 starts vs. those Pesky M's, The Seattle M's are 2-8 in Hernandez's last 10 road starts. 2- 9 after today.Cleveland is the razor sharp side today
Karl Garrett
For Sunday, take Tampa Bay on the Run Line over Baltimore.
Yeah, I know Buck Showalter has the Orioles off and running at 9-3 through his first 12 games at the helm, but the O's have dropped 2 of their last 3, and yesterday's 7-3 final seems more indicative of where Baltimore really is.
Tampa trailed 3-0 yesterday, then scored 7 unanswered in recording just their 3rd win in their last 10 games. Still, Jeremy Hellickson has proven his worth thus far, going 2-0 in as many starts, while allowing just 2 runs through his first 14 innings of work.
Expect Hellickson to give the Rays another solid outing this afternoon.
Baltimore will go with Jacob Arrieta who was lucky to win his last start, as he gave up 5 runs in a 6 inning win over the White Sox. In Arrieta's lone start against Tampa this season, he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings but escaped with a no decision.
Tampa is 19-7 their last 26 at home versus Baltimore, and I like them to roll over the Orioles today.
4♦ TAMPA BAY -1.5
Stephen Nover
I'm on a 55-36-1 roll with my baseball free picks. I will put my 60 percent mark on the line with underdog Oakland as my complimentary selection today.
The Athletics come in with a solid 7-1 run in their last eight Sunday games.
Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro is one of those who plays better during daylight. He's 4-2 with a 2.84 ERA in sunshine.
Mazzaro has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his past nine starts. He has gone at least seven innings during four of his last seven outings.
The Twins are going with Kevin Slowey, who has a 5.44 day time ERA. Slowey last pitched 10 days ago. He has been sidelined by a sore elbow, but is going to give this start a go.
Slowey has a 5.33 ERA during his past 10 starts.
At this 'dog price, the A's are worth backing.
2♦ OAKLAND
Bobby Maxwell
I delivered two big FREE winners on Saturday as the Red Sox got the job done in Texas on the diamond and the Cardinals took care of the Texans on the gridiron. Today I'm scoring a comp winner on the Angels as they will score the win over the Blue Jays in Southern California.
The Angels have taken six of eight from the Blue Jays this season and I’m banking on them to get today’s contest behind right-hander Dan Haren, who looked great in his last outing with the Angels.
Haren delivered on Wednesday at home when he held the Royals to one run on five hits in seven innings of a 3-1 victory over the Royals. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his three home starts with the Angels. He also faced the Blue Jays once already this season, back in May as a member of the D’Backs when he allowed four runs in eight innings and struck out eight in an 8-6 victory.
Lefty Ricky Romero (9-7, 3.53 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays and he is 1-2 in three career outings against the Angels with a 4.66 ERA. He also pitched on Wednesday and got a no-decision against the Red Sox, giving up five runs on eight hits in six innings of a 7-5 loss. He’s got a 4.33 ERA on the highway this season and other than a decent start in New York, he’s been shelled on the highway in his last five roadies.
The Angels scored the 7-2 winner on Saturday and are now 5-1 in their last six home games. The blue Jays are just 3-8 on Sundays while the Angels are 75-36 in the third game of a series the last few seasons.
Go with Los Angeles to finish this series with a victory and Haren to deliver a gem. Play the Angels.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
BRETT ATKINS
I'm handing out a free winner in the NFL preseason schedule today as I go with the Niners on the road in Indianapolis.
San Francisco is one of those teams on the verge of a something special. They made some strides last season and they are about to make some noise this year and possibly earn themselves a playoff spot and challenge the Cardinals in the NFC West.
Niners' QB Alex Smith has plenty of weapons to use on offense with RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree. They are going to move the ball. Tonight, backup QB David Carr will see a lot of action and he is a known quantity that will lead the Niners to some points as well.
Indianapolis has long been one of the teams to go against in the preseason as they just don’t play their stars much in the exhibition campaign. There will be one series with the starters and then they’ll take a seat and let the likes of Curtis Painter run the team.
I like the Niners in this matchup and look for them to win this one by 10. Play San Francisco.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
JAY MCNEIL
The Twins are off an running once again, and the dominating pitching has me sold for this game today.
Minnesota's 2-0 win yesterday, coupled with Chicago 3-2 loss to the Tigers, and the Twins are now two games ahead of the second-place White Sox in the American League Central.
I won't list either pitcher, cause this one is based on pure momentum, but I do like my chances with Kevin Slowey on the hill, as he's 10-5 on the year, and comes in with a 6-3 mark and 3.73 ERA at home.
Play the Twins in this AL showdown.
2♦ MINNESOTA
JOEL TYSON
A-Rod exploded last night as the Yankees came back to win 8-3 over the Royals.
I like another over today between the Yanks and Royals, as Burnett and Bullington are likely to be serving them up to the batters this afternoon.
Burnett's road ERA stands at 5.35 this season, and his overall ERA still stands at 4.87, Seems likely that he will give up a few more runs this afternoon in the hot midwestern air.
Bryan Bullington is making just his second start of the season for Kansas City, and he did give up 3 runs in 6 innings in a loss to the Angels his last time out. I doubt this converted reliever will be around much past the 5th inning today as I fully expect the New York bats to get cranking early in this one.
Take the OVER in the Yankees-Royals contest.
4♦ OVER
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 -115
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This is a pretty decent price to back the Rockies on the run line with the ace Jimenez on the bump. Jimenez has been dealing all season, and his record stands at a perfect 8-0 at home in 10 starts. The Rockies have won 9 of those 10 outings, and all 9 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. In addition, Jimenez has had great success against the Brew Crew, posting a 2-0 career mark (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.37. Parra gets the ball for Milwaukee looking to snap a 3-game losing streak (on the money line). But I don't see it happening here considering he is 0-2 lifetime against Colorado with an ERA of 7.27. The Rockies have the big edge on the mound, and I'll take them on the run line this afternoon.
Nelly
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Oakland + over Minnesota
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Kevin Slowey missed his last start with an elbow issue and while he is jumping back in the rotation there are concerns. In five of his last nine starts Slowey has allowed four or more runs and while he is one of the best pitchers in baseball at limiting walks allowed he is also quite hittable. Slowey has struggled in day games this season with a 5.44 ERA and the A's are one of the best performing team in baseball in day games. Aside from one bad start in Texas Vin Mazzaro has emerged as a top pitcher for the A's delivering quality starts in eight of his last nine outings. In four of those games he allowed just one run and in five games he allowed five or fewer hits. In day games his ERA is 2.84 and this will be the first time the Twins have faced the talented young pitcher. Oakland's pitching staff has a dominant 1.97 ERA over the last ten games including great numbers from the bullpen and the A's are a better hitting team than most realize. Minnesota has won 20 of the last 27 games but the schedule has been light and the A's are 7-1 in the last eight Sunday games.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Toronto +1.29 over ANAHEIMTHESPREAD.COM
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Despite the loss yesterday, the Jays still offer up some tremendous value with a lefty going vs the Angels. Ricky Romero is an elite groundball pitcher (52%) and that makes him a threat every time he takes the mound. Romero has been consistently good for almost two full seasons now. The Angels .696 OPS against lefties this year is one of the worst marks in the majors and once again they’re in tough against Romero. Dan Haren picked up his first win as an Angel Tuesday by holding the Royals to a run on five hits over seven innings. He struck out three and walked one in the victory. He only has five strikeouts over his last two starts, neither of which featured fear-inducing opponents (Orioles, Royals). Haren’s BAA since joining the Angels four starts ago is an unimpressive .278. On the year, he’s allowed 188 hits in 168 IP and he sure doesn’t seem to be getting stronger. The Angels pen is not very good, its offense is not very good and once again, just like in the first two games of this series, the Jays chances of winning have to be considered as good or better than the Halos chances. Play: Toronto +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
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Chicago +1.37 over ST. LOUISTHESPREAD.COM
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Tony LaRussa returns after serving his two-game suspension and the only thing that genius brings with him is the smell of whiskey oozing out of his pores. The Cards have dropped three of its last five at home and its pitching staff over that stretch has posted an ERA of 6.60. Things really don’t figure to get much better here with Kyle Lohse returning after a long stint on the DL. Lohse went on the DL in late May due to a right forearm strain. He was sent to a specialist for further testing and was diagnosed with extreme compartment syndrome, something usually seen in distance runners, not baseball players. In fact, this is the first known case of it occurring in a major league pitcher, leaving us in a bit of unknown territory. In this condition a sheath covering a muscle in the forearm does not allow it to expand. In his four rehab starts, Lohse posted an ERA of 4.74 and that’s not too encouraging. Before he landed on the DL he was brutal in nine starts with a BAA of .323 and an ERA of 5.89. Current Cub hitters are batting .355 of Lohse in 135 career AB’s. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster continues to throw quality start after quality start. Dempster has won his last two starts while allowing one earned run in 12.2 innings and has a 2.89 ERA over his last four starts vs the Cardinals. Dempster taking back +1.37 over Lohse is an absolute overlay. Play: Chicago +1.37 (Risking 2 units).
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Los Angeles +1.29 over ATLANTATHESPREAD.COM
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The Braves are coming off a rare loss at home but once again are overvalued here with Jair Jurrjens on the hill. Jurrjens has been very average since coming off the DL six weeks ago and while he does have some very good games, his xERA of 4.67 reveals that he’s been very fortunate too. He’ll never be a big strikeout guy and he’s very likely to give up a few runs today against a Dodger offense that is on the verge of a serious breakout. The Dodgers outhit the Braves yesterday 12-4 but only won 2-1. Only one Dodger regular is batting under .270 this month and four regulars are batting over .300. It’s only a matter of time until they string some hits together and get a few clutch hits with two outs. The Braves offense is in trouble. Five regulars are batting under .220 over the past 14 games and things don’t get easier against Vincente Padilla. Padilla is the real deal and everything in his under the surface stats confirms that. Padilla has shown an increased reliance on a new two-seam fastball that he is throwing over 25% of the time. Whether it is his favorite new pitch or the increased velocity on his curveball, Padilla should keep doing it because the results say it’s working. He comes in with impressive numbers right across the board that includes a 1.00 WHIP, a BAA of .210 and an ERA of 3.32, which is right in line with his xERA of 3.34. Padilla does not have a tough assignment here and one really has to like the Dodgers chances of an easy win. Play: Los Angeles +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
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CALGARY –8½ over EDMONTONTHESPREAD.COM
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You won’t find many that disagree with the fact that the Eskies are much better than its record indicates but what does it mean? Losing is very contagious and with only one win under its belt, a narrow and fortunate one over the Blue Bombers, pressure is mounting on this intruder and this is not the best place to be playing under the current conditions. Yeah, Edmonton has a skilled QB in Ricky Ray and they have a very good RB and some talented receivers but thus far, against some much weaker opponents, it’s all amounted to near nothing and when you throw in a brutally awful defense, it makes this task a daunting one at best. The Stamps are 5-1 and they haven’t even played that well. They crushed the Riders in Calgary in what can be described as “near flawless” and it was by far its best game of the year. Other than that game, they’ve just squeaked by but a visit from its biggest rival should have them peaking again. When the Eskies play here the place is electric and this one will be no different. The Stamps are a juggernaut of a team with perhaps fewer weaknesses than even Montreal or Saskatchewan. They are certainly capable of ripping the hearts out of this fragile intruder and would like nothing more than to kick this team when they’re down. Yes, 8½-points is a big number in this rivalry but the alternative to laying it appears much worse. Play: Calgary –8½ (No bets).
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -145
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Like the Sox today with Garcia on the hill when you consider they are 14-2 in his last 16 starts vs. the Tigers. The White Sox are also 6-0 in Garcia's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are struggling and so is Galarraga. They are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win and only 1-5 in Galarraga's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the South Siders.
Stan Lisowski
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Chicago White Sox
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Chicago is 11-5 in game 3 of a series if off of a loss in game 2. They have won 14 of 21 Garcia starts this season, standing 7-3 in his home outings. The Sox have won 9 of his past 10 starts against Detroit.
John Ryan
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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3* graded play on Washington as they take on Arizona set to start at 1:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Nationals will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-7 making 27 units for 83% winners since 1997. Play against NL road dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This system is a perfect 7-0 this season as well. Strasburg is certainly the better starter over Barry Enright. With Arizona batting just 233 over the past 7 games we fully expect a complete domination by Strasburg. Enright has been solid, however, and if he was gong up against any other Nationals starter other than Strasburg we may be backing Arizona. To reduce risk consider making a 3* play using the Run Line model simulations show that the Nationals will win this game by more than 2 runs. Take the Nationals.
Larry Ness
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Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers won 10-9 (11) on Friday night, coming back from an 8-2 deficit. The Red Sox won 3-1 last night behind Lester and the teams play the rubber game of the series today, Matsuzaka vs Wilson. The Red Sox are six games behind the first-place Yankees in the AL East and four behind the Rays for the wild card. Meanwhile, the Rangers own a comfortable 7 1/2-game lead over the Angels in the AL West. Today's starter for Texas, CJ Wilson, is a big reason for that comfortable lead. He leads the team wins with a 10-5 record (3.30 ERA) and is among the major league leaders with a .216 opponent batting average. The converted reliever has nearly doubled his previous career high by throwing 141.2 innings but he is 3-0 in five starts (3.14 ERA) since the break (team is 5-0). He has dominated the Red Sox this year, winning both starts with a 0.68 ERA (has walked seven over 13 1-3 innings, though). Opposing Wilson will be Boston's Matsuzaka (8-3, 4.09 ERA). Boston has won FIVE of the last six games started by Matsuzaka, who is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA in that stretch. While Matsuzaka is 3-1 in his four career starts vs Texas, his ERA is hardly impressive (5.09 ERA). Texas has won 12 of 18 meetings against Boston since the beginning of last season, including a 6-2 mark here in Arlington. Take the home team.
Info Plays
3* on Washington Nationals -173
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Reasons the Nats win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL). This is a 64-8 ML System hitting 88.9% since 1997. This system is a perfect 7-0 this season. Bet the Nationals at home.