Doug Upstone
Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Front-running Minnesota continues to play great baseball and receive remarkable pitching. Yesterday’s 2-0 shutout of Oakland has them permitting four total runs in past three contests. The Twins are 5th in MLB in runs scored at 4.9 runs per game and come into today series finale as decided favorites.
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Look to Play On home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, who average 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game against a good AL starting pitcher like Vin Mazzaro, who has ERA of 4.20 or less, after a combined score of four runs or less. Since 2006, this tremendous system is 17-3.
Jack Jones
Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8.5
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The runs should be plentiful today in the Cubs at Cardinals showdown. Neither starter has been very consistent this season, with Kyle Lohse posting a 5.89 ERA and 1.712 WHIP and Ryan Dempster sporting a 4.14 ERA in road starts. Lohse owns a 5.59 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 9 career starts vs. Chicago, while Dempster sports a 4.63 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in 17 career starts vs. St. Louis. So as you can see, both starters have struggled against their opposition.
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Dempster is a perfect 8-0 to the OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Lohse is 13-3 to the OVER in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The OVER is 9-2-2 in Cubs last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 7-0 in Dempster's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-2-2 in Dempster's last 16 starts overall. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. St. Louis is 9-2-1 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this NL Central clash Sunday.
Insider Angles
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Tim Tebow is making his NFL debut for the Denver Broncos Sunday night vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, who are already playing this second game after losing 16-7 in the Hall of Fame Game last week.
There is a misconception that teams playing their second game have an advantage when facing teams making their preseason debuts, as the fact is that following the Cowboys’ loss to the Raiders on Thursday, these teams are just 14-19 against the spread since 2000. We look for that trend to continue in this game, especially with the Broncs catching the hook on the key number of three.
This actually brings up another favorable angle for the Broncos, as preseason underdogs of +3.5 or more are now 103-74, 58.2 percent ATS over the first three weeks since 2000. The Bengals looked terrible offensively vs. Dallas, scoring the only offensive touchdown of the game in the final minute, so we are not sure they would cover this number even under normal circumstances.
As for the Broncos, they do have a decent quarterback rotation here, as former NFL starter Brady Quinn also joins Tebow in backing up starter Kyle Orton. On top of this, remember that Denver had a monumental collapse last season, failing to male the playoffs after a great 6-0 start. Coach Josh McDaniels would love nothing better than to erase that memory as soon as possible, and a good preseason would go a long way toward reestablishing some confidence.
Look for Denver to get off on the right foot here with an outright upset win.
Pick: Broncos +3.5
Black Widow
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1* on Toronto Blue Jays +127
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This is a great price for the Blue Jays Sunday, who send Ace Ricky Romero to the bump. Romero is 9-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.268 WHIP this year. Dan Haren goes for the Angels, but he has not fared will against Toronto. Haren has posted a 5.55 ERA in 7 career starts against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Along the same line, Toronto is 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss. The Angels are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. American League East. Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.
Tony Stoffo
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Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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With the A's in a major hitting slump with the Under going 11-0-1 in their last 12 games. I have to look for their bats to again to silent today with Kevin Slowey getting the start here. Slowey in his last 3 starts has allowed just 5 earned runs, and 12 hits in 21+ innings pitched resulting in a 2.08 ERA and 0.646 WHIP. Plus add in the fact that he has also dominated the A's going 2-0 against them with a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP, and definitely can see how the A's are shutdown once again today. While the same cannot be said about the A's pitching staff. Vin Mazzaro in his last 3 starts has given up 12 runs, and a whopping 22 hits in just 18+ innings pitched producing a high ERA and WHIP, and throw in the Oakland bullpens 1.651 WHIP and you can see how the Twins score plenty of runs to come away with the easy win here today.