Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 18

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N.Y. Giants (-1.5) over IndianapolisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sunday night we get treated to a great NFL Preseason matchup as last year's surprise team, the Indianapolis Colts, visit the New York Giants. Preseason Week 1 was a rough one for the Colts as everything went wrong quickly. The Colts defense on Sunday looked really bad, giving up 44 points to the Buffalo Bills at home. Buffalo's offense and special teams were outstanding against the Colts, and if the Colts don't fix this problem I see the Giants doing the same thing Sunday night. The Giants defense played really well against Pittsburgh last Saturday, and I see the G-Men's "D" playing lights out at home. Defense will be the key to this victory, and if the Giants can stop the Colts offense in the first half then I see the Giants holding on to a low-scoring victory. Take the small home favorite in this preseason game as the hometown Giants stay perfect in August.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Tribe sends the born-again arm of Scott Kazmir to the mound against the A's in the wrap up of this three game series in Oakland, the Indians will do so knowing is in solid KW form with 13 strikeouts and 3 walks his last three starts. Kazmir is also 5-1 in his day team starts this season, and 9-4 his last thirteen team starts against the Athletics. With that look for the A's to dip to 3-6 their last nine games at home against southpaws here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Jimmy Boyd

Boston Red Sox -123

Both Dempster and Sabathia have put up comparable numbers this year. Dempster has a 4.50 ERA while Sabathia has a 4.66 ERA. Boston is 14-10 in Dempsters 24 starts while the Yankees are 13-12 in Sabathia's 25 starts. The team that wins this game will not do it with an outstanding pitching performance, it is going to come down to offensive production. That is an area where Boston has a big advantage. The Red Sox have a .285 batting average at home this season and they are scoring 5.0 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Yankees have a losing road record and they are scoring 4.0 runs per game with a .238 batting average away from home.

These teams split the first two games of this series and I like the home team to pick up a win today. The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last six during game three of a series. The Yankees are 1-5 in their last six road games against a right handed starter and they are 1-5 in Sabathia's last six starts as a road underdog. In his last 10 starts against Boston, the Yankees have a 3-7 record.

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati Reds -146

The Reds fit a solid system here that plays on road teams off a road favored loss by 2+ runs at -140 or higher if both teams scored 2 or less runs .These road warriors have won 11 of the last 13 times. The Brewers are 1-23 in the last game of a series if they are not favored by -150 or higher and their bullpen allowed 1 or less runs and they have less than 4 days rest. This Angle has cashed repeatedly for us this season. The Reds have Homer Bailey going and his era game specific numbers are better than Brewers starter W. Peralta. Look for the Reds to bounce back from a pair of losses here the last 2 nights and know up this 4 game series.

Dave Price

St. Louis Cardinals -167

The Cardinals have been a terrific investment on the road with ace Adam Wainwright on the hill. He's 8-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 14 road starts this season. In addition, St. Louis is 31-12 all-time in Wainwright's road starts versus division opponents. It is also 23-8 lifetime in his road starts in day games. The Cardinals are 8-2 in Wainwright's last 10 road starts versus the Cubs. Edwin Jackson's clubs have lost seven of his 10 starts against the Cards. Also, his clubs are just 6-18 in his start against division opponents since the beginning of last season. Take St. Louis.

Jeff Alexander

NY Mets -131

Eric Stults has pitched well for San Diego, but he doesn't have the kind of stuff Matt Harvey has. New York's ace is 9-4 with a 2.23 ERA in 24 starts while Stults is 8-10 with a 3.68 ERA in 25 starts. The Padres ended a 3-game skid yesterday, but they are still 3-8 in their last 11 and 0-5 in their last 5 following a win. The Mets have been resilient of late, going 18-8 in their last 26 games following a loss. They are also an outstanding 10-4 in their last 14 road games versus a left-handed starter. Bet the Mets.

Doug Upstone

Nationals / Braves Under 7½

Nice pitching matchup today in Atlanta. Expect a low scoring, very fast game. 22-year old righty Teheran had put together four straight outings with one or fewer earned runs, but ran into a speed bump in Philadelphia last time out. Look for a rebound from Julio today. Play the under 7½ before it moves.

Art Aronson

Yankees / Red Sox Over 9½

CC Sabathia (10-10, 4.66 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Sabathia continued his up-and-down season vs. the Angels on Tuesday, good enough to earn his 10th win of the year, but he gave up three runs off three hits over six frames. All runs were scored on two long-balls. It was the big southpaw's first victory since July 3rd, having lost his previous four decisions. Note that Sabathia has walked at least three batters in three of his last four outings. Sabathia has been particularly inept on the road this year, going a sub-par 3-5 with a horrendous 5.35 ERA thus far. He will throw opposite Ryan Dempster (6-8, 4.50 ERA) who has also been pretty inconsistent this year, but is coming off one of his better performances by giving up one run off four hits with two walks over seven innings, unfortunate to get saddled with a no-decision for his effort vs. the Blue Jays on Tuesday. So is it time to jump on the "Dumpster" because of one decent start? I'd say the answer is an emphatic: "no"! Dempster had been shelled for 12 runs over his previous 12 innings of work previous to that gem. The Yanks took Game 1 of this three-game set 10-3 on Friday; the BoSox would return the favor with a lower-scoring 6-1 victory yesterday. With these two questionable starters facing off against these hard-hitting lineups in the finale, I believe we'll see a similarly high-scoring affair like in the first game and will recommend a second look at the "over" in this matchup.

Jeffrey Brandes

Royals / Tigers Under 7

Pitchers:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS: BRUCE CHEN (L) ERA: 0.93 W/L: 2-0
DETROIT TIGERS: MAX SCHERZER (R) ERA: 2.85 W/L: 17-1

Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home

Bruce Marshall

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Houston Astros

Tough loss last night for the Astros in extra innings, but remember that they have still won five of their last six in Anaheim and can win their second series in a row on this current road trip if succeeding this afternoon at the Big A. We like their chances, too, with rookie starter Breet Oberholtzer keeping recent high-profile like Baltimore, Boston, and Texas off balance while posting an 0.87 ERA in three starts and is holding opponents to a .187 batting average during that span. meanwhile, the inconsistent Halos cross their fingers regarding starter Jason Vargas, who was clubbed in his return from the DL last Tuesday against the Yankees while allowing four runs and eight hits (including two homers) in 4 1/3 innings of work in an eventual 14-7 loss.

Jim Feist

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Houston Astros

Jason Vargas goes for LA and the Astros have seen plenty of him -- and like facing him, with an ERA of 6.75. LA is a bad defensive team, a huge part of their underachieving (and money burning) season. The Angels are 6-14 in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and have stuggled the last week. The Angels activated Vargas from the disabled list and threw him back in the rotation last week. It didn't go well for the veteran, lasting only 4 1/3 innings giving up four earned runs on eight hits and a walk. He threw 77 pitches before leaving the game. Houston has a hot starter going in Brett Oberholtzer (2-1, 2.57 ERA) and the Angels have never seen him. He first Astros starter to hurl seven or more shutout innings in each of his first two major league starts and the Angels are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. American League West.

Jesse Schule

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers

Kansas City has taken 2-of-4 in this series in Detroit, winning both games in Friday's double-header before dropping Game 3 on Saturday. The series finale will feature two red hot pitchers with Max Sherzer facing off against lefty Bruce Chen. Chen (5-0, 1.62 ERA) has tossed 14 2/3 scoreless innings allowing just eight hits in his last two starts. While he's been very stingy in all six of his starts this season, this is not characteristic of Bruce Chen over his 14 year career. With 14 years of data telling a different story then the small sample size of six starts in 2013, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Chen. The southpaw was 1-4 versus Detroit last year, and 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in two trips to Comerica Park. The Tigers certainly don't mind facing lefties, they rank third in the majors batting .270 versus left-handed pitching, and no team has hit more home runs (47) against southpaws than Detroit. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder have both owned Chen in their careers, with Prince hitting .385 with a home run and Miggy batting .405 with four long balls. Sherzer (17-1, 2.85 ERA) allowed three runs on just four hits over six innings in a no decision against the White Sox his last time out. Prior to that he won four straight decisions allowing just four runs on 12 hits over 28 2/3 innings of work. The major league's wins leader hasn't faced the Royals this season, but he was 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts versus Kansas City last year. Don't be fooled by Chen's good numbers over a short period of time, this should be an easy victory for the Tigers.

Big Kat Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Take: Los Angeles Dodgers -110

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look for the 3 game sweep over the Phillies when the two teams meet this afternoon at Citizen’s BankPark in Philadelphia. The Dodgers have won the first two games of the series both via shut-out, marking the first time the Phillies have been shut out in back to back games since early 2010. Ricky Nolasco will get the call on the hill this afternoon as the Dodgers will try and keep the fright train rolling. Nolasco has been good this season, posting a 9-9 record with a 3.62 ERA and he has been even better than that over his last three starts, winning them all. The Phillies, who have dropped 21 of their last 25 games, will send Cole Hamels, who recorded his first victory since July 9th on Monday to oppose Nolasco. Hamels hasn’t been as bad as his 5-13 record would lead you to believe, but he gets some of the worst run support in the league and this Phillies team isn’t hitting at all right now.

Besides the fact that they have won 42 of their last 50 games, here are a few trends that have us leaning to the Dodgers on Sunday.

•Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. National League East.

•Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite.

•Dodgers are 23-3 in their last 26 road games.

•Phillies are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

•Phillies are 3-9 in Hamels’ last 12 home starts.

Pair those numbers with the fact that the Dodgers have won 5 straight head to head meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia and we’ll roll with them to earn the sweep.

Jack Jones

Cleveland Indians +114

The Cleveland Indians (66-57) are right in the thick of the AL Central and Wild Card races. I'll gladly back them as an underdog to the Oakland A's today considering the edge they have on the mound.

Scott Kazmir has resurrected his career in Cleveland in 2013. The left-hander has been extremely effective on the road, posting a 3.61 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 11 starts away from home this year.

Tom Milone is clearly one of Oakland's worst starters. The left-hander is 9-9 with a 4.32 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts.

Kazmir is 10-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 18 career starts against Oakland. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 Sunday games. Cleveland is 13-3 in its last 16 vs. a left-handed starter. The A's are 3-7 in their last 10 home games. Bet the Indians Sunday.