SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +114 over OAKLAND
For starters, Cleveland is 18-7 against the AL West and 5-1 against the A’s this season. That number should be 6-0 after the Indians had runners on base every inning on Friday but lost 3-2. Yesterday, the Indians scored seven times and easily defeated the A’s and we expect more of the same here. Oakland can’t hit. This team is loaded with .240 hitters and they just lost Josh Reddick to an injury. Oakland’s .235 team batting average over the past 50 games is fourth worst in the majors, ahead of only the Astros, Marlins and Twins. They have won on pure luck the entire season but that unsustainable luck has run its course. The A’s have won just six of their past 16 games and in two of those six wins they scored three times in the eighth inning to pick it up. Tommy Milone is an average pitcher for a weak hitting team. Milone’s ERA on the season is 4.39. His ERA over his last five starts is 5.40. He comes in with a pedestrian 35% groundball rate and a case of gopheritis. Milone has been taken yard three times over his past two starts and 22 times this season. He’s averaged 1.5 jacks allowed per nine innings and that’s in correlation to his fly-ball bias profile. The Indians feature one of the best hitting lineups against southpaws in the league with a 23-16 record and a .265 team batting average. Cleveland has had nothing but scoring chances and base-runners over the past two days of this series and they figure to get more of the same here. The same can’t be said for the A’s.
The A’s are 26-15 at home against lefties. How can that be? Oakland is hitting .239 against southpaws, which is the second worst mark in the AL. Again, we turn to the A’s luck because a .239 team batting average does not equate to being 11 games over .500. That winning percentage is sure to even out over the remainder of the season and it likely begins here against Scott Kazmir. Kazmir missed Wednesday's start against the Twins due to dead arm syndrome, affecting the range of motion in his shoulder. The good news is that it wasn’t serious and he’s healthy again for this start. Kazmir had been on a roll before his disaster in his last outing, in which he was injured. Kazmir had four quality starts in his previous five starts, spanning 31.1 IP, allowing only six earned runs while posting 26 K/10 BB and an ERA of 2.39. Scott Kazmir’s comeback story is officially in high gear. The former Rays phenom - out of baseball one year ago - has returned to relevance with the Indians with resurgent velocity and strikeout rate. His high strikeout rate is supported by a 10.2% swinging strike rate and he’s also had a big increase in his groundball rate, which is now at a career high of 47%. Comparing Cleveland’s offense to the A’s is like comparing Aaron Rodgers to Tim Tebow. Wrong side favored.
Colorado +144 over BALTIMORE
Scott Feldman was much better suited to pitch at Wrigley Field for the Cubbies in the NL than he is pitching for the Orioles in the AL. In four of the past six years that he pitched in the American League, Feldman posted ERA’s over five. Since joining the Orioles, he’s picked up right where he left off with a 5.18 ERA over seven starts. At home it gets worse, as Feldman is 1-3 at Camden Yards with an ERA of 7.66. Feldman’s AL pedigree says it’s not likely to get any better, as he went 6 innings or fewer in 40% of his games as a member of the Texas Rangers. Arlington wasn't a factor either, as his road woes were worse. .802 OPS with base-runners is chronic (.808 career mark). Feldman’s quality start/disaster start history says avoid. It’s also worth noting that Feldman will face a hot hitting Colorado line-up.
The Rockies have scored 53 runs over their past 10 games and have hit .295 over that span. That’s second in the majors after the Dodgers. Jhoulys Chacin has quietly put together one of this year’s best season for a starting pitcher. Chacin has a 3.18 overall ERA, with a skills supported xERA of 3.49. The keys have been improvements with his slider and sinker that have both become almost unhittable. Over his last three starts, Chacin’s groundball rate was up to 62%. What’s even more impressive about Chacin is that 14 of his 23 starts this season have come at Coors Field. On the road, Chacin has been nothing short of dominant with a 1.87 ERA over nine starts. Over those nine road starts, Chacin has been taken yard one time. Over his last 37 innings, Chacin has walked four batters. Jhoulys Chacin is dealing it but has gone virtually unnoticed pitching for the Rockies. If this guy were a Dodger, he’d probably be in line for a Cy Young award because he’s been that good. He’s been as good as Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez and yet he’s in the price range of an average pitcher. That’s value at its best. Huge overlay.
MILWAUKEE +138 over Cincinnati
This line is completely out of whack. Cincinnati has lost the past two days here and they are under .500 on the road. Yesterday, the Reds were shutout and were held to five hits. Against Yovanni Gallardo yesterday, a pitcher just off the DL and having a horrible year, the Reds had three hits in 6.1 innings. That’s just one game but Cincinnati is hitting a major-league low .201 over their past 20 games and that’s even sicker when you consider that they play half their games at one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. Homer Bailey is not in great form either. He only has three wins (8 losses) in 13 road starts and these Brewers have had nothing but success against him. Current Brewers have 56 hits in 173 AB’s versus Bailey for a BA of .324. They also have an eye-opening .885 SLG % against him. Bailey looks completely legit this year but haven’t we seen this picture before? In seven years in the big leagues, Bailey has never been able to maintain consistently for an entire season. He’s been hit hard in his last two games against the light-hitting Cubs and A’s in which he was tagged for 15 hits and nine runs in 11.2 innings. Not interested at all in the Reds spotting a tag like this in Milwaukee.
The Brewers continue to play decent ball and that’s because they’re a decent team that grossly underachieved in the first 3½ months. Since July 14, Milwaukee is 17-13. Five of the eight regular players in their line-up are hitting over .290 during that stretch and overall that group is hitting .279 or better on the year. Wily Peralta enjoyed a big skill spike in July after posting some pedestrian numbers in June. Peralta’s groundball rate over the past month is at an elite 60%. He also posted a 95.1 mph average fastball velocity and a high 10.7% swinging strike rate. With top-tier raw stuff and a high groundball rate, Peralta has an extremely intriguing profile with nothing but profit potential. What makes him even more appealing here is that these Reds can’t hit him. In fact, current Cincinnati hitters have just 15 hits in 79 career AB’s against Peralta for a BA of just .190. Win or lose, this one is a must play based on the above facts.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -8 over Edmonton
How can this one go any other way? The Eskimos come into this one last in the CFL in time of possession and number of plays from scrimmage. They are also last in the CFL in points per game and things don’t figure to get better this week after the Eskimos were forced to make changes in their offensive line. The Eskimos continue to take penalties at a staggering rate and in fact, were penalized 13 times last week for 138 yards. It gets worse. With injuries to Aaron Grymes and J.C. Sherritt, two new faces for Edmonton will be tested. Bryan Williams will start at cornerback to fill in for Grymes, and Rennie Curran will take Sherritt’s spot as middle linebacker. Considering how smoothly Toronto’s offense is running this season, both players figure to run into trouble. Eskimos coach, Kavis Reed can’t decide on anything. He uses a three-headed quarterback system and we all saw what happened to the Blue Bombers when they tried a similar philosophy. All three QB’s are a mistake waiting to happen.
You think Ricky Ray isn’t excited to face his former team again. Damn right he is. Ray is playing the best football of his career. Ray hit on 34 of 38 passes in his last two games, both Toronto wins. Toronto has scored no less than 35 points in each of the last three outings. In fact, the Argos have taken care of the action on both sides of the ball during this three-game win streak, outscoring the competition by a combined 111-44 margin. The Argos are by far the class of the East. They have the two best players on the field here in Ray and Chad Owens. As Ray continues to turn the field into an operating table in the prime of his career, the reminder is present of what the Eskimos had, what might have been and how painful these get-togethers can be. The result should be another easy win for the home side.
Bob Balfe
Los Angeles Dodgers -125
This Phillies team is a joke. I would never poke fun at a team like Houston for being so bad because their payroll is about 1/10th of the Phillies. The Phillies fire their long time coach and cant score in two games. This team is finished and has no interest in playing the rest of the games this year. Take the Dodgers.
Wunderdog
Colorado at Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -150
Colorado is not catching the Dodgers in the division, or anyone else for the Wild Card. This is the third of a 10-game trip, and they are a long way from home in this Interleague contest. The Rockies are 25-54 in their last 79 road games, and 15-36 in their last 51 Interleague games. Colorado is awful on the road, and faces Baltimore righty Scott Feldman. The Rockies are 5-21 in their last 26 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter! Baltimore has a winning record both home and away and is in a pennant race for a division title or a Wild Card. They also have a powerhouse offensive attack, fourth in baseball in runs scored and tops in slugging. Baltimore pounded them yesterday, 8-4, including a seven-run inning early which prompted Colorado to use four relievers. The Rockies are 7-16 in Jhoulys Chacin's last 23 road starts, while the Orioles are 20-8 in home games against a right-handed starter. Play the Orioles.
Craig Davis
Made the mistake of backing the Yankees at Fenway as Saturday's comp play. Not going to be fooled again, however, today.
Trust me... this is a tough release for me because I simply don't like the Red Sox.
But as I look at these two teams, it's still pretty clear to me that Boston is better. Every once in a while the Yanks have the right pitching matchup or their bats get hot... they earn a win. But days like yesterday, when their best pitcher was on the mound, they still weren't able to muster any offense and dropped a 6-1 decision.
That's kind of been the theme all year for the Bronx Bombers.
And today I don't think it will be much different.
The Red Sox turn to Ryan Dempster (6-8, 4.50 ERA), who somehow has managed a bunch of no decisions and one win over his last six starts despite a 6.00 ERA.
How you ask?
Run support. The Red Sox are hitting better for Dempster than any other pitcher on the team right now.
New York counters with CC Sabathia (10-10, 4.66 ERA), who is having a horrible season despite his last start. Sabathia was on a stretch of games in which he lost six straight decisions before he stepped up and beat the Angels in his last outing. His ERA over those previous six starts was 8.33... completely unacceptable for a guy making that kind of money.
While it should be a good game to watch, the Red Sox simply have too much talent to let the Yankees come to Fenway and take two of three.
3♦ BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in the Royals-Tigers finale at Comerica Park.
A slew of Under numbers to choose from here, as the teams have played Under the total in 4 of their last 5 games this season, and 8 of their last 10 overall.
Kansas City is riding a 17-6-3 Under mark their past 26 games, and starter Bruce Chen has been simply mystifying since joining the starting rotation with just 4 earned runs allowed in almost 39 innings pitched over a 6 start stretch - ALL 6 of those starts have stayed Under the total.
Then there is likely Cy Young Award Winner Max Scherzer going for the home team. All Scherzer has done is go 17-1 for the year with a 2.85 ERA. He is 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA the last 5 times he has started against the Royals.
The is a very low total for an American League game, but the way Chen and Scherzer have been dealing, I have no issue playing it Under the total.
1♦ KANSAS CITY-DETROIT UNDER
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for Sunday will be for the pitchers to dominate at Miller Park, as the Reds and Brewers conclude their four game set with a low-scoring affair.
After combining for 13 runs on Friday, things returned to form last night in the 2-0 final that saw the Under move to 9-1 the last 10 times these division-rivals have played one another this year.
As if that weren't enough, the Under is now 10-2-1 the last 13 times the Reds have played an away game, while the Under is now 14-3 the last 17 times the Brewers have played a home game.
Homer Bailey goes for the Reds, while Wily Peralta will counter for the Brewers.
Peralta has made 3 straight starts that have ended up Under the total, and 7 of his last 8 overall have also played low. That includes a 2-0 complete game 3 hit shutout that he threw at Cincy back on July 9th.
True, Bailey has struggled his last pair of trips to the mound, but this game has all the makings of another low-scoring affair.
Reds-Brewers to hold low.
3♦ CINCINNATI-MILWAUKEE UNDER
Brett Atkins
Today my free winner is on the Under in the Kansas City/Detroit game, as I see we have a pitchers' duel on our hands. As you may well know, all total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the starters of record on your ticket when making your play: Bruce Chen and Max Scherzer. If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.
Chen comes in after pitching seven scoreless innings against the lowly Miami Marlins last Tuesday, when he allowed just just three hits on three walks with six strikeouts. Though it was the Fish, who are metophorically flopping out of water this season, Chen has been rock solid since joining the rotation, as he's 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA in six starts and has lasted at least six innings in each start.
As for Scherzer, we have the winningest pitcher in baseball on the slab for the Tigers. And he'll be out to avenge a mediocre start his last time oout, when he didn't have his most dominant stuff against the White Sox. Though he evaded the loss when Detroit came back to the tie game in an eventual defeat, I still believe he'll be out to dominate in this one, against a Royals team he's historically done well against.
I'll play this one low, as I see a pitchers' duel taking place at Comerica Park in Motown.
2♦ BOSTON
Chris Jordan
Not going to push it right now, as I'm still gearing up for the football season. Taking a look at one baseball game, the biggest mismatch on the card from what I can see. Make some easy money with this bankroll builder on the diamond.
My free play for Sunday is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Arizona Diamondbacks, as the Bucs desperately need a win with things tightening up in the National League Central. Heck, the Pirates, Cardinals and Reds all look like postseason teams - one being a division champ and the other two sneaking in as wild-card entries, as the Washington Nationals and everyone behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West fade quickly,
I know the Diamondbacks are still hoping to snag a postseason slot, as they sit five games back of Cincinnati for the second wild card, but the Pirates are just hungry and have their hands full in holding off the Cardinals in the N.L. Central. And with the Pirates losing six of eight, they're lucky to still maintain a two-game lead over the Redbirds, and that's much in part to maintaining the second-best home record in the majors.
I won't list pitchers in this game, but it doesn't hurt to see the D-backs handing the ball to Wade Miley, who beat the Bucs in his second start of the year way back on April 10, when he tossed 6-2/3 innings and allowed just two runs on five hits in a 10-2 win. It's been awhile, yes, but you don't forget games like that when you're a winning team.
If Pittsburgh were the Pirates of old, folding in the second half, I wouldn't have mentioned it, but it will be out for revenge in this one.
1♦ PITTSBURGH
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Sunday is the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves, and make note in this game I want you listing both pitchers: Gio Gonzalez and Julio Teheran, as the two are in a rematch from a previous meeting.
The Braves and Teheran won 2-1 on Aug. 6, in Washington, where Atlanta's feisty-throwing right-hander limited the Nationals to one earned and four hits over six innings. Problem I have is he followed that outing up with a home loss to the disappointing Philadelphia Phillies, who tagged him for six hits in four earned runs. Teheran is 1-2 in his last five home starts, with an ERA of 4.13.
I'd rather side with revenge-minded Gonzalez, who fired four scoreless innings last Tuesday against the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants before a rain delay and back discomfort brough his outing to an abrupt halt. Nontheless, he struck out two, walked two and allowed just four hits. And the Nationals' crafty southpaw is not just looking for revenge in this one, he's winless in his past five starts so he'll be looking for a key win here.
Take the Nationals and list both.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Freddy Wills
Atlanta Braves -135
I really like the Braves here especially coming off a lost in 15 innings last night. Not only are they 10-1 in their last 11 following a loss, but they saved their bullpen more than the Nationals. Gio Gonzalez has also struggled during day games (5.37 ERA this year), and against the Braves (ERA over 5 in his career) and is also on 4 days rest for a day game. He's had 3 starts this year alone vs. the Braves on 4 days rest posting 7.31 ERA. Meanwhile Julio Teheran is on 5 days and posts 2.93 ERA at home 2.21 ERA during day games and a 3.75 in 4 starts vs. the Nationals. Braves are hitting lefties pretty well at home 5.40 runs per 9 while the Nationals are under 4 runs. Washington is just 7-20 in their last 27 as a road dog and should lose this game.
Sean Higgs
Nationals / Braves Under 7
After a marathon 5 and a half hour 15 inning game, I am going UNDER. Under is 7-3 last 10 in the series and has cashed 5 of the last 7 here in Atlanta. Tehan has gone under in 9 of his 11 home starts and the Braves 9 of their last 13 overall. Washington has gone under in 10 of their last 14 on the road.
Joe Gavazzi
Yankees / Red Sox Over 9
Neither of these starting pitchers is pitching anywhere near his potential. For the YTD, Sabathia has a 5.35 road ERA and Dempster has a 4.57 home ERA. Historically in his last 9 starts vs. Boston, Sabathia has a 6.51 ERA. For Dempster against NYY, he has recently gone 0-5 with a 6.98 ERA in his last 38 2/3 IP. The current form of these guys is even worse. NYY is 1-6 in the last 7 Sabathia starts. In fact in his last 6 starts, Sabathia has allowed 33 runs on 45 hits in 33 IP. Those 6 starts have totaled 86 runs for an average of 14.3 runs/game. Though Boston has won the last 6 Dempster starts, it is because of their Big Bats, for Dempster has a 6.00 ERA in that time frame. 5 of 6 of those games have seen total runs of 10 or more. The total combined runs in those 6 games is 73 for an average of 12.2 runs/game. If each team scores only 4 runs tonight, we are assured of no worse than a push with this miniscule total of 9 runs in a matchup of overrated pitchers and solid hitting teams.
Dave Essler
Colts / Giants Over 40.5
Got to. At home the Giants will want to score early with their weapons. Luck will score against the Giants defense (depleted, no Osi) and Amhad Bradshaw perhaps against his old team. Just see this game being played for the full sixty minutes, especially on National television. Colts will obviously want to improve on giving up 44 to the Bills, but even some regression is still points. Giants were able to move the ball in Pittsburgh, so at home against the Colts, they ought to get more than 18. It's that simple for me. We'll put our 5-1 NFLX sides/totals run on the line here.
Harry Bondi
INDIANAPOLIS (+2) over NY Giants
We have hit two in a row in the preseason this weekend with New Orleans and Seattle and tonight we have another very good situation. Teams in Week 2 of the preseason that are coming off a straight-up loss and are playing a team coming off a straight-up win are better than 62% against the spread the last few years and the reasoning is simple and one of the main rudiments of betting preseason football. One team has something to prove and the other one does not. Indianapolis got embarrassed last week with a 44-20 loss to Buffalo and tonight on national TV it does not want that to happen again. Look for QB Andrew Luck to get much more playing time than last week and his back-up Matt Hasselbeck is a veteran who will provide some leadership going into the second half. The NY Giants, meanwhile, got a win in Week 1 over Pittsburgh and really don't have much to play for tonight in terms of motivation. Take the points tonight with the team that will be more fired up and ready to play.