Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday August, 19

Hollywood Sports

Saskatchewan at British Columbia
Prediction: Under

British Columbia (4-2) has got their defense cranking as evidenced by their dominant 18-9 win versus Toronto where they held the Argonauts to only 252 total yards of offense. The Lions lead the CFL by limiting teams to just 293.3 total YPG -- and they are 2nd in the league by holding teams to only 19.8 PPG. This is the time of the season when BC sees their defense take over as they have now played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of August. The Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the West Division. Additionally, British Columbia has played a decisive 48 of their last 71 games Under the Total when favored. Saskatchewan (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 28-20 loss at Edmonton as a 2-point favorite. The Roughriders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Saskatchewan has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 66 games as a road underdog in the 3.5-10 point range, the Roughriders have played 49 of these contests Under the Total. Considering that these two teams have played 8 of their last 9 meetings in BC Under the Total, look for those trends to continue on Sunday night. Take the Under in this one.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Saskatchewan at British Columbia
Pick: Saskatchewan +6.5

The 3-3 Saskatchewan Roughriders find themselves one game back of the West leading Lions and Eskies, and a win would put them back in first. The Lions return home following two road wins over Calgary and Toronto to get back on top in the West, and we sense a let down here for the Lions and will back Rider nation with the points in hand and the possible upset. The Riders are behind the Lions offensively speaking in yards per game, however they are not far behind, and in fact are throwing 20 more yards per game in the air. The Riders offense has been outscoring the Lions as well at 29 ppg, and on the road this season is averaging 33.7 on visiting scoreboards this season. The Riders were able to squeeze out a 23-20 victory on home field last month, and with these points in hand make a very attractive play here. Take the Riders to cover the points as they try to get back in top spot in the west and may win outright.

Marc Lawrence

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Miami Marlins

When the Marlins and Rockies wrap up this four-game series of division cellar dwellers Miami will send Josh Johnson to the hill knowing he is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his career team starts versus Colorado. With Johnson entering the contest in strong KW form with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts, look for the Rockies to fall to 3-17 on Sundays this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Chris Elliott

Minnesota vs. Seattle
Pick: Under

The Minnesota Twins will call on right hander Sam Deduno on Sunday when they take on the Seattle Mariners. In 7 starts this year Deduno is 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In his last 5 starts he has allowed 9 runs in 30.1 innings for an ERA of 2.67. 2 of the 4 road starts that Deduno has made this season have gone "Under" the total.

Seattle will counter with right hander Blake Beavan on Sunday against the Twins. Beavan has a record of 7-7 on the year with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. In his previous 3 home starts he has given up 8 runs in 20.1 innings for an ERA of 3.54. In his last 10 starts 5 have gone "Under" with 4 "Over" and 1 "Push".

The Twins have hit the "Under" 54-59 overall but have hit the "Under" an impressive 22-15 in day games. The Mariners have hit the "Under" 64-52 overall, 34-22 at home and 24-11 in day games.

6 of the last 10 between these two at Safeco Field have ended up "Under" the total with 3 "Over" and 1 "Push". Look for another low scoring game at Safeco Field between 2 teams that struggle to put runs on the board. Take the "Under" to win.

MTi Sports

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The Royals are 0-16 (-3.1 rpg) as a dog of more than 110 when they are off a night win in which they had at least a dozen hits. Consider the White Sox

Rob Vinciletti

Twins vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½

This game fits a nice totals system that has won 13 of 17 times and plays to the under for home teams like Seattle that are off a 1 run home favored win, while scoring 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits and 10 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs also with 10 or more men left on base. Seattle has played under in 12 of 15 as a home favorite from -100 to -125 and they score 3 runs per game on .210 hitting here at home. They have Beavan going today and he was solid going 7 innings allowing just a pair of runs in his only appearance vs Minnesota. Deduno for the Twins has been good with a 3.38 era this season. Look for this one to go under the total.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago WHite Sox continue to hold onto first place in the AL Central with a slim 1 1/2 game lead over second place Detroit. That is what makes games like today even more important for the Sox. They need to win games against the lower division opponents. But KC is no pushover of late, winning on Saturday against the Sox, 9-4, and taking seven of their last 10 games. Still, I can't see this first place Chicago team letting these games get away from them. Detroit is hot on their heals. Jose Quintana has been excellent for the Sox, going 5-2 in 16 starts with a 2.77 ERA. Quintara is also perfect on the road, 3-0 in eight away starts. Meanwhile, Jeremie Guthrie will start for the Royals. Guthrie is 5-11 with a 5.91 ERA and has pitched better of late. However, the Sox with Quintana are too strong here on Sunday. Take the visitors.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley is smokin' hot for the Dodgers and rates a definite edge over Mike Minor right now. That makes the Dodgers a good take as small dogs against the Braves.

Scott Spreitzer

Twins / Mariners Over 7.5

Samuel Deduno has been a "free pass" machine in 2012. The Twins' righthander has walked 30 batters in 40 innings. Deduno owns a hefty 1.55 WHIP overall and he's allowed 7 earned runs and 20 base runners in his last 11 innings of work. It's no wonder his team is on a 4-1-1 Over run in his last six starts. Seattle will send Blake Beaven to the mound and they're on a 5-0-2 Over run with the righty in home starts against teams with a losing record. Beaven has posted a 5.03 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 5 home runs in 19 2/3 innings. He also owns a hefty 5.06 ERA in six daytime outings in 2012. Finally, the Twins enter on a 7-1-1 Over run on the road against righthanded starters. I'm playing the Over between the Twins & Mariners on Sunday.

Tony Stoffo

Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Miami Marlins

Money, trends and this pitching match-up all point towards a highly recommended play on the Marlins at this reduced price. Josh Johnson gets the start for the Marlins here and he has been super sharp as of late allowing just 5 earned runs and 16 hits in his last 22+ innings pitched resulting in a 1.99 ERA and a 0.838 WHIP. Plus add in the fact that Johnson has dominated the Rockies throughout his career only adds to this release on Miami in this spot. Marlins are 25-8 in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Marlins are 4-1 in Johnsons last 5 starts vs. National League West. Rockies are 0-6 in Pomeranz's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 0-4 in Pomeranz's last 4 home starts.

JR O'Donnell

Tampa Bay +130

Rays send out righty Matt Moore who is 9-7, 3.60 ERA & a 1.34 WHIP, against LAA's Zack Greinke (10-4, 3.81 ERA & 1.26 WHIP). Greinke has really struggled at late, giving up "17" earned runs over the last "33" ip over his last "5' starts, and raising his ERA .58 points. Rays counter with Matt Moore who is 3-1 over his last "5", averaging almost "7' innings per outing, and only surrending "4' earned runs in those "5" contests. TB is 49-34 vs. the RHP while the Angels are 42-40. Rays score 4.6 r/g on the road vs. the Angels 4.2 r/g at home which is almost half a run less than overall. Power rated @ Angels - 121.2213

GoodFella

LA Dodgers +106

The Dodgers offense is hitting on all cylinders and they're on a sick "road" run & are simply sky high in confidence and their team chemistry is off the charts right now. Harang, for the most part, kept the Dodgers bullpen out of the equation, while the same cannot be said for the Braves last night. ATL SP Mike Minor is very prone to the long ball & he is prone to losing his command at times. LAD SP Billingsley is really on a roll the last several weeks & I definitely expect him to out pitch Minor and hand the ball over to the LAD best arms in the bullpen & IMO the wrong team is favored here.

Dave Essler

LA Dodgers +105

This one's simple. The Dodgers are something like 6-2 in on this current road trip and are simply hitting the ball. They've got a fairly rested bullpen, and the pressure to win this game falls squarely on Atlanta. I don't trust Minor to keep the ball in the park, and at plus-money there's just way too much value not to trust the veteran, Chad Billingsley.

SPORTS WAGERS

KANSAS CITY +113 over Chicago

The Royals are among the hottest teams in the majors right now with 12 wins in their past 18 games. The White Sox have not enjoyed much success against KC this year with just three wins in their past 10 attempts. Chicago is hitting a disastrous 16-87 (.184) with men in scoring position against this team and frustration is mounting.

Jeremy Guthrie has found life outside of Colorado much more enjoyable. He's been a much different pitcher since arriving here, especially in his last two starts in which he has not allowed a run while walking just two and striking out 14. With his experience and the ability to induce groundballs (40%) he gives his side a chance to win. He’s rolling along right now and has a very good history against current South Side batters of 53 hits allowed in 214 career AB’s for a BAA of .244.

Jose Quintana will try and turn things around for his club but his mediocre skills suggest it will be a difficult task. Quintana has a 2.77 ERA in 14 starts but we’re not buying it. He has just 53 K’s in 97 innings and when you pitch to contact you are bound to get burned. Quintana’s xERA of 4.09 and 4.44 over the past 31 days or five starts tell the real story. He’s been a pleasant surprise for the White Sox but ERA regression is inevitable and right now, this is as good a place as any for that to occur.

Miami -1½ +133 over COLORADO

This venue certainly has influence on the posted total of 10 but Drew Pomeranz has a much larger influence on that number than Josh Johnson.

Pomeranz was scratched from his August 15 start due to chest soreness. He hasn't made it past the fourth inning in his past three starts and the Rockies have lost five of his past six starts. Also consider that Pomeranz will not be allowed to pitch deep into this game because of manager Jim Tracy’s strict 75-pitch limit on his starters and that is going to take a toll on the bullpen if it hasn’t already. Pomeranz is 0-4 at home and 1-7 overall with an ERA of 5.04.

Josh Johnson has been on the brink of top tier starter status since June. Over his last three starts, his ERA is 1.99. Johnson has outstanding control, a groundball bias profile and one of the best four-pitch mixes in the majors. He’ll face a Rockies lineup that not only hasn’t seen him much (just 45 career AB’s) but that will also be without their best hitter in Carlos Gonzalez, who is on a leave of bereavement. In those 45 career AB’s, current Rockies hitters have eight knocks against Johnson for a BA of .185.

The Rockies are a mess. They’ve been a mess all year with 45 wins in 118 games. They’re 14 games under .500 at home and will now face one of the most consistent and effective pitchers in the game while sending out a pitcher of their own that can’t go five innings. Chances are the Marlins roll.