Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 21,2011

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox Aug 21
Prediction: Texas Rangers

When the Rangers wrap up a three-game visit with the White Sox in Chicago Sunday afternoon Texas will send Derek Holland to the hill against Gavin Floyd with the left hander holding the better hand in this matchup. After struggling in his two previous performances, Holland lasted 8.2 innings in a 7-3 over the Angels in Anaheim last Tuesday. His road ERA (3.39) in nearly two full runs better than his home ERA (5.32) this season. On the flip side, Floyd's home ERA (7.15) is dramatically worse than his road ERA (3.07) this season. With Floyd 1-4 with a 6.06 ERA in his career team starts in this series, we'll back the better team with the better numbers here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona D-Backs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Braves fit a nice system here that plays on home favorites of -140 or higher that are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs if the total was 8 or less and they had 5+ men left on base with no more than 1 error and their opponent is off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs with 5+ hits and 5= men left on base. These home teams are 18-3. The Braves have Hudson going and he has a 2.67 home era and has owned Arizona going 5-0 with a 1.54 era. In his last 3 starts against them he has allowed 1 run in 23 innings. When Hudson is a home favorite from -125 to -175 he is 12-0. Today he opposes J. Collementer and he has hit a wall of late with a 5.82 era over his last 3 starts. Arizona has cooled quickly after their long winning streak. Arizona has now lost 4 straight and have hit just .204 over the past week. In games here in Atlanta, Arizona has lost 6 of 8 the past 3 seasons. If not for the high line this would have been a unit rated selection. However I'm not willing to go that high here.

Ben Burns

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

I won with the Mariners in Pineda's last start and was in attendance to personally savor the victory. One of the major reasons I had chosen to play the M's that day was that Pineda was pitching at home (where he is generally better) and because I expected him to pitch well. That most certainly was not the case. The M's rookie got rocked by the longball, giving up home runs in the first, third and fourth innings. He also walked four in five innings. Thankfully, the M's offense bailed me out and I was able to cash an exciting 6-5 ticket, despite Pineda's shaky performance.

Even with that poor outing, Pineda is still 5-2 with an excellent 2.86 ERA at Safeco Field. However, he's only 4-5 with a 4.50 ERA on the road. I really didn't like what I saw from Pineda in that last game and won't be surprised if he struggles here again.

While he suffered a loss last time out, Shields has been outstanding of late. Indeed, he's still 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.787 his last three starts, averaging better than eight innings per start in those games. Opposing batters are hitting only .148 in those games. For the season, Shields has a terrific 2.14 ERA at home, striking out 102 in 100 innings.

This will surely be a rather "popular" (public) play and it is rather on the expensive side. That said, sometimes the popular side is also the correct one.

The Rays are really rolling right now. They've been beating up on the league's "bad" teams and they should have a solid edge again here. With yesterday's victory, they're a lucrative 42-19 (+21.3) against team with a losing record. Consider laying the wood.

Scott Spreitzer

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are currently on a 21-3 run, pulling out to an 8 1/2 game lead over second place St. Louis in the NL Central. Impressively, the Brewers have outscored their last 24 opponents by 54 runs -- even when you include the three losing margins. Milwaukee has been virtually untouchable at Miller Park this season, but they did own a glaring weakness - they couldn't win on the road. But that problem seems to have worked itself out. The Brewers enter Sunday with a 7-1 road mark in August. And as the team has heated up, so has Yovani Gallardo. The righthander has made three starts in August, sporting a 2.57 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and .195 BAA! He'll face a Mets' squad that's just 25-34 at home this season, while averaging just 4 rpg at Citi Field against righties. R.A. Dickey certainly deserves a better fate, but the fact is, he is 1-8 in 13 home starts this season. In fact, his team has won just 8 of their last 28 at home against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 46-14 in their last 60 as chalk, and they're 20-8 against teams with a losing record when Gallardo toes the rubber. I'm backing the Brewers on Sunday.

Jim Feist

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Oakland A's have taken two straight from the Blue Jays after Saturday's win, 5-1. The A's have been terrible on the road this season, going 22-40, but in their big pitcher's park in Oakland they are 35-29. For the A's, it's their pitching that will win them games and so it follows they would do well in pitcher's parks. Guillermo Moscoso is starting for the A's with his 6-6 mark and 3.48 ERA. The 27-year old Venezuelan has won his last two starts and three of four. Moreover, during those four starts he has allowed over two runs just one time. The Blue Jays will counter with Luis Perez. Perez has been inserted into the starting rotation to replace Brad Mills. Perez has mainly pitched in long relief with a 3.71 ERA. While the Jays are not looking for anything spectacular out of the 26-year old, they do want to give him a look in the starting role. I'm sticking with the A's here on Sunday. They play well at home and this is the kind of park that a fly ball pitcher like Morosco needs to win. Take the A's.

Red Dog Sports

USA men vs. Romania
Play: Over 154.5

The USA just lost to Lithuania 76-74 and now play Romania. The USA is fast paced and has played 175, 155, 180, 188 and 178 point games in their first 5 games. Romania has played low scoring games vs. Germany and the weak UAE but did play 87-71 (158) with Czech and 98-80 (178) with China. Romania gets points from Moldoveanu, Nicoara and Mandache while the USA hopes to shoot better than 5-30 from 3's. There should be a nice opportunity for an over and all we need is for Romania to make a few baskets.

USA vs. Chinese Taipei/Taiwan
Play: Taiwan +37.5

Both teams are undefeated and play for the gold medal on Sunday morning. The USA is led by Delaware's 6'5" Elena Delle Donne. They have steamrolled some teams by crooked scores. Taiwan beat Sweden by 1 in the semifinals while the USA beat Australia by just 12. Now USA and Taiwan play for the gold medal. The USA may win by 40+ but the game will be played in China and the fans will be pulling hard for the underdog. The USA will be happy to get ahead and win by 20 to 30 points. At +37.5, you start the game up 37.5 to 0.

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -230

The Royal's starting pitcher Danny Duffy is coming off of his worst start of his career. Duffy allowed eight runs on eight hits with two walks and two hit batters against the Yankees in that game and to say control was an issue for Duffy would be an understatement. I don't like his chances of bouncing back against the Red Sox lineup and in the 3 and 2/3 innings that he has worked against the Sox in the past, Duffy has an ERA of 14.73. The marin of error for Duffy is very small with Jon Lester on the mound for Boston. Lester ended a two game losing streak to push his record to 12-6 on the season with seven innings of one run ball against the Rays in his last start. I expect another strong outing from Lester in this one as well. Play on Boston.

Steve Janus

San Diego Padres -131

I really like the Padres to finish off the Marlins for the sweep on sunday. Florida is just 2-14 in their L16 games, while the Padres have won f4 of 5 and three straight overall. Not to mention the Padres are a perfect 6-0 against the Marlins this season. Florida is playing with zero confidence and little desire, which rarely results in wins.

The Padres will send Cory Luebke to the mound, who has pitched much better than his 5-6 record. Luebke has a 2.99 ERA and 0.987 WHIP on the season. His luck has started to change of late, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Florida will counter with Anibal Sanchez, who is 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. Sanchez, like the rest of the Marlins, has not pitched well of late. He is just 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his last three starts. Florida is only 4-10 in Sanchez's last 14 starts as an underdog.

The Padres are 4-1 in Luebkes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record, 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Jack Jones

Colorado Rockies -105

I'm siding with the Colorado Rockies Sunday as a small home favorite over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kevin Millwood has pitched well in his two starts since getting called up, allowing just 15 base runners in 13 innings for a 1.154 WHIP. I like his chances to shut down this weak Dodgers' line-up today. Millwood is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in nine career starts against the Dodgers.

I'll gladly fade Chad Billingsley in this spot. Billingsley is 5-5 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 13 road starts in 2011. He has struggled in 12 career starts against the Rockies, going 3-6 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.697 WHIP. He has faced the Dodgers three times this year, going 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.

Millwood is 27-7 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. The Dodgers are 6-14 in Billingsley's last 20 road starts. Los Angeles is 1-8 in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Dodgers are 1-5 in Billingsley's last 6 road starts vs. Rockies. Take Colorado Sunday.

David Banks

St. Louis / Chicago Over

One of the best rivalries in all of baseball will play out its final Wrigley Field meeting of the 2011 regular season on ESPN’s Sunday night telecast when Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals square off against Starlin Castro and the Chicago Cubs; first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 ET.

Every game that goes by, manager Tony LaRussa’s uphill climb seems to be getting bigger and bigger within the NL Central Division. With the Redbirds falling in extra innings to the Cubs in the series opener Friday afternoon combined with the Brewers flexing their muscles in the Big Apple against the Mets, St. Louis now finds itself 7.5-games back in both the division and wild card races. With only 37 games left to play, including Saturday’s Game 2, the Cardinals are just about in ‘Dire Straits’ territory.

The Cubs will not be partaking in any post season festivities once again this year, and because of it, upper management decided to make a change at the GM position by firing Jim Hendry on Friday. The embattled decision maker of this losing franchise put some great teams on the field during his tenure, but the last couple seasons of wretched baseball played on the Northside ultimately sealed his fate. Still, manager Mike Quade’s outfit has no problem playing the role of spoiler as it’s played decent ball in August compiling a 12-5 record (+$626) while winning series against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington and Atlanta.

With the Cubs being one of the reasons St. Louis failed to qualify for the second season a year ago, the Cardinals have made it their duty to pummel them this season. They’ve done exactly that taking seven of the 10 overall meetings; the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of those games. Though the Redbirds have won each of their L/4 series finales, they stand a rancid 1-4 their L/5 vs. a righty and 1-6 in Jake Westbrook’s L/7 starts against NL Central opposition. Chicago’s tallied W’s eight of the L/10 times its played on the corner of Sheffield and Addison, and have come out on top six of the L/7 times it battled a +.500 opponent. It’s also 4-1 in spot starter Rodrigo Lopez’s L/5 trips to the bump.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Dallas Over 38.5: The Chargers offense was tops in the league last year and this year they could put up even bigger numbers now that Ryan Mathews has a year under his belt to go along with the fact that they have Vincent Jackson back for the start of the year. Rivers will be excited to have his favorite target back, yet with out him for much of last year he still threw for 4700 yards. Rivers an the first team offense will be on the field for nearly all of the first half and will be taking aim at a Dallas defense that allowed 357 yards (248 through the year) and 23 points last week to the Broncos. Dallas had a nice offensive showing last week as they put up 342 yards overall, including 242 through the air. The San Diego defense was tops in the league last year and they will be fine this year as well, but they did allow Seattle 24 points last week and should have some problems with the Dallas passing game today. With both offenses playing just about all of the first half I expect plenty of points in this one.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAYS

San Diego/ Florida Over 6.5: Forget the Oakland O/U run. The Padres have a nice Over run themselves going as the Over is 20-5-2 in their last 27 games and 24-6-2 in their last 32 games on grass. The Marlins do enter this game scoring just 3.8 rpg in their last 5 games, while their staff ERA is a whopping 6.70 in that same 5 game stretch. Those numbers don't reflect tonight's game as it is 14-1 SD as of this writing. The Padres offense has scored just 3.02 rpg at home overall, but in their last 16 at home that average is at 4.13 rpg. The Padres are ranked 4th in the league in ERA (3.44) and they have a 3.10 ERA at home, but in their alst 10 overall they have an ERA of 4.45, while in their last 18 at home they have allowed 4 rpg. Annibel Sanchez gets the call for the Fish and he comes in struggling with a 5.82 ERA overall, while on the road this year his ERA is 3.99. Cory Luebke has pitched well with a 2.99 ERA overall and a 2.00 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he does have 3.76 ERA in his home starts this year. Annibel's road starts have averaged 8.09 rpg, while Cory's home games have averaged 8.2 rpg. Even in this park both teams are capable of putting 3 runs+ on the board in this one. I see at least 8 runs here.

Texas -1.5 (+135) over CHICAGO: Ok here is a stat for ya. The last 8 times that Texas has been held to 2 runs or less they are 8-0, both SU and vs the RL, in their next game and they have outscored those opponents by 6.8 rpg. Today this offense should get cranked up again as they will face a struggling Gavin Floyd, who comes in with an 11.05 ERA in his last 3 starts, while in his 10 home starts this year he has an ERA of 7.15. In Gavin's 6 team home losses the Sox are 0-6 vs the RL, while in his 12 team losses overall they are 3-9 vs the RL. Derek Holland has had a good year for Texas, with an 11-4 mark and a 4.23 ERA overall and a 6-2 mark with a 3.38 ERA on the road. In Derek's 6 team road wins the Rangers are 6-0 vs the RL, while in his 14 team wins overall they are 12-2 vs the RL. Let's also not that the Rangers are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs a team with a losing record, while the Sox are 5-17 in their last 22 games as a home dog and 4-17 in Floyd's last 21 starts during game 3 of a series. I really feel that the Rangers are angry again and WILL win this game outright and as you can see from the numbers above, when they win outright with these situations they cover the RL.

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA Angels/ Baltimore Over 9: Before Brian Matusz was sent down to minors back in June, he went through a 4 game stretch where he had an ERA of 13.49. Now he's back up in the majors and has 1 starts since his return and the results haven't been better as he allowed 6 ER in just 6.2 innings of work. This is a bad bad pitcher. Today he will face an Angels offense that has put over 4 rpg on the board in their last 6 games. And they have scored 14 runs in the first 2 games of this series. Jerome Williams hasn't been in the majors since 2007, but in his last 3 years up here he had a 5.09 ERA in 28 starts. This year he has faced just 3 batters so far and 2 of them had hits. The Orioles offense has been solid of late as they come in hitting over .270 and scoring 4.9 rpg in their last 11 games. Both teams have played a lot of Overs lately and it mostly can be attributed to poor pitching. The Over is 9-2 in the O's last 11 games and they have an ERA of 5.50 in that stretch. On the other side the Over is 8-3 in the Halo's last 11 games and they have an ERA of a little over 5 in that stretch. I can easily see double digit runs in this one.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

NY Yanks -1.5 (-110) over MINNESOTA: The yanks will be in a foul mood after getting crushed last night by the Twins. The yanks are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs a team with a losing record and 17-4 in Nova's last 21 starts with the total set at 9 to 10.5, plus they are 10-2 in their last 12 ,meetings here. The Twins are 1-4 in Blackburn's last 5 starts overall and 1-5 in his last 6 starts vs the AL East. Ivan Nova gets the call for the Yanks here and while he doe have an ERA above 4 for the year he is still 11-4. The Yanks come in having won his last 8 starts and they are 8-0 vs the RL in those starts, while they are 14-1 vs the RL in his 15 team wins overall on the year. His lone loss vs the RL was his 1st start of the year vs these same Twins, but that was at home meaning the Yanks are 7-0 vs the RL in his 7 team road wins on the year. After starting the year at 6-4, Nick Blackburn has gone 1-6 with a 6.87 ERA in his last 11 starts, while in his last 6 home starts he is 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA. In his last 7 team losses the Twins are just 1-6 vs the RL. This is just a bad spot for the Twins as the Yanks get back A-Rod and the will look to win big after last night's big loss. POWER ANGEL FOR THIS PLAY--- The Yanks are 20-0 since July of 2005 as a favorite when they are off a 3+ run defeat in which their starter lasted less than 3 innings and threw less than 70 pitches and that set's up nicely for the fact that the Yanks are 31-5 vs the RL when they win the game on the road this year.

2 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia -1.5 (-135) over WASHINGTON: If Oswalt can shut out this Washington team, then I feel that Halladay can do the same. Chien-Ming Wang hans't been terrible since his reaturn, but he will be going up against a hot and healthy (minus Polanco) Philly offense that comes in averaging 5.8 rpg in their last 8 games. The Nats offense comes in struggling a 3.2 rpg in their last 11 games. In Roy's last 5 wins as a fav of 200 or more the Phils are 5-0 vs the runs, and they are also 5-0 vs the RL in his last 5 road wins. Philly big here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Milwaukee/ NY Mets Over 7.5: the Over is 10-1 in Milwaukee's last 11 games as a road favorite and 13-3 in Gallardo's last 16 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. For the Mets the over is 15-5 in Dickey's last 20 starts following a Quality starts and 9-3 in their last 12 games as a dog of +110 to +150. I see 9+ here.

Boston -1.5 (-135) over KANSAS CITY: Sure the Sox are missing a few key offensive personnel, but they should be able to knock around daniel Duffy who is 3-7 with a 5.66 Era overall and 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. The sox are 7-1 vs the RL in Lester's 8 team road wins and 11-2 vs the in his 13 teams wins overall. The Royals beat up the Sox last night, but today they get their revenge.

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO +118 over Texas

The Rangers are hot but so, too, are the White Sox, who are currently on a 10-5 run and they evened up the series last night. Gavin Floyd has been consistently good for three straight years including this one. This year has been a carbon copy of 2009 and 2010 (now with more grounders) confirms his skill level. He throws strikes and his K rate is very good with 111 in 146 IP. His ERA of 4.66 is more than a run higher that his xERA of 3.63 and his high ERA is due to a low strand rate of 63%. A ton of balls hit on the ground have found holes and that’s pure bad luck. Over the past month, covering five starts his strand rate was 47% but with 26 K’s in 29 frames and a WHIP of 1.06 over that stretch, don’t believe that misleading ERA of 5.83. Gavin Floyd is good but the surface stats could throw you off. Derek Holland has been feast or famine in most starts this season. When he pitches with the bases empty he’s posted outstanding numbers but when he pitches from the stretch he gets into serious trouble. The South Side is in the top five in the majors in getting their leadoff man on in each inning and that smells like trouble for Holland. His strand rate over the past month is 81% and that’s an unsustainable number. Holland’s numbers are ok but he’s also inconsistent and this match doesn’t look so good for him. The White Sox are still in this thing, as they sit just five games out of first and just 1½-back of Cleveland for second. Play: Chicago +118 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO +120 over St. Louis

The Cubs are 13-5 in August and beating the Cardinals is almost as satisfying as being in a playoff race. Watching Tony LaRussa and his sidekick cheating-partner Mark McGwire squirm in the dugout makes watching these games even sweeter. The Cardinals have dropped to 8½ back and they’ve recently lost to Randy Wells, Jason Hammel and Jeff Karstens among others. The Cards only two wins over their past seven games came against Esmil Rogers of the Rockies and Paul Maholm of the Pirates. That’s what you get when you hire a pitching coach with a career .235 average before he started juicing himself. Must be interesting to see McGwire trying to teach Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, Furcal, Molina, Theriot and David Freese how to hit. That’s like Mike Tyson trying to teach Boris Spassky how to play chess. Tonight’s matchup is between Jake Westbrook and Rodrigo Lopez and if you think Westbrook is better you’re wrong. He’s not. He’s not much worse but he is. Besides, Lopez is pitching on borrowed time and is under no pressure whatsoever. Westbrook is and in a game in Chicago at Wrigley on a Sunday night, against a hot Cubbies club, Westbrook favored has zero appeal. Play: Chicago +120 (Risking 2 units).

Baltimore +136 over L.A. ANGELS

The O’s offense is superior to the Angels, that’s a given as the O’s have scored about 50 more runs than L.A. and they’ve almost doubled the Angels home-runs totals. The Orioles lose because they’re almost always at a disadvantage on the mound. Not here and this is absolutely the biggest overlay of the day. Jerome Williams gets the start in place of Tyler Chatwood and if you thought Chatwood was bad, you can triple that with Williams. Williams was once a prospect but he’s been bouncing around in the minors for eight years now. He does have 71 career starts in the majors but six teams have dropped him over those eight years. In his last four stints in the majors, Williams posted ERA’s of 7.20, 7.30, 4.36 and 6.48 with WHIPS of 1.73, 2.11, 1.37 and 1.50. That was from 2005 to 2007 pitching for four different clubs. His last appearance in the majors before he pitched one inning this year (his WHIP in that inning was 3.00), was in ’07. This is a skill set that's going nowhere fast. Brian Mutusz doesn’t offer up much either. He was called up on Tuesday to face the A's and made his first major league start since June 30. His record fell to 1-5 after he allowed six runs on eight hits, one home run and three walks with five strikeouts over 6.2 innings pitched. However, he was coming off two strong starts at AAA-Norfolk (2-0, 16 IP, 1 ER, 14/3 K/BB) and perhaps he’s can give the O’s some good innings in his second start since the recall. Regardless, the O’s offer up all the value in this one against a fragile and weak Jerome Williams. Play: Baltimore +136 (Risking 2 units).

John Ryan

St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St Louis Cardinals

5* graded play on the Cardinals as they take on the Cubs set to start at 8:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that St. Louis will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-15 making 27 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play on any team not know for their team speed averaging 0.35 or less stolen bases per game on the season and after two straight games where they had five or less hits. Cards are in a strong situation noting they are a solid 21-6 (+13.9 Units) against the money line with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game this season. The Cubs are not in a strong situation noting they are just 5-12 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons. Garza shut down the Cardinals in a 3-0 shutout win. Cardinals are in a ‘MUST WIN’ situation if they are going to make a move to contend for the division crown or the National League Wild card. Take St. Louis.