Doug Upstone
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Minnesota vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -2½
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The Minnesota Vikings offered the most dominate performance of the first week of the NFL preseason, stepping on St. Louis 28-7. There were more impressive score differentials than what Minnesota accomplished, even without grandpa Favre, but the yardage difference was important. The Vikings gained 414 yards compared to the Rams meager total of 150. In exhibition, whoops, sorry, preseason football, play against any team that out-gained previous opponent by more than 210 yards. This yardage system is tight 27-13 ATS the last 11 seasons. Take San Francisco Sunday Night on NBC.
DUNKEL INDEX
Minnesota at San Francisco
The Vikings look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 preseason games as an underdog. Minnesota is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2)
Game 429-430: Minnesota at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.939; San Francisco 124.037
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 38
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over
MLB
Cincinnati at LA Dodgers
The Reds look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-5 loss and build on their 8-1 record in their last 9 road games. Cincinnati is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125)
Game 901-902: Houston at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Figueroa) 14.987; Florida (Miller) 14.614
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.287; Pittsburgh (Duke) 12.576
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-170); Under
Game 905-906: Washington at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Olsen) 14.366; Philadelphia (Oswalt) 15.701
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-240); Over
Game 907-908: San Diego at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 15.918; Milwaukee (Parra) 17.096
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under
Game 909-910: San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.460; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.072
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over
Game 911-912: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.041; Cubs (Wells) 14.676
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); N/A
Game 913-914: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.876; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.684
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Under
Game 915-916: Colorado at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 13.950; Arizona (Hudson) 14.290
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Over
Game 917-918: Cleveland at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Gomez) 14.909; Detroit (Verlander) 14.159
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); Under
Game 919-920: Seattle at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (French) 15.658; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.116
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-350); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-350); Over
Game 921-922: Texas at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 14.782; Baltimore (Millwood) 15.141
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Under
Game 923-924: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 14.511; Boston (Buchholz) 15.959
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.582; Minnesota (Baker) 16.681
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Under
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.209; Kansas City (Greinke) 15.144
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.512; Oakland (Braden) 17.193
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Under
WNBA
Phoenix at San Antonio
The Mercury look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus the Western Conference. Phoenix is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7)
Game 651-652: Phoenix at San Antonio (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 107.113; San Antonio 112.296
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 177
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 173 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7); Over
Game 653-654: Washington at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 114.525; Atlanta 115.750
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Under
Game 655-656: Connecticut at New York (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 110.793; New York 121.746
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 152
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 7 1/2; 155
Dunkel Pick: New York (-7 1/2); Under
Game 657-658: Minnesota at Indiana (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.222; Indiana 119.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 10 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 9; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-9); Over
BRETT ATKINS
My free play streak is now at five in a row after the Dolphins went into Jacksonville and scored the one-point win against the Jaguars on Saturday night. Tonight, I am back on the gridiron for another comp play as I go with the Niners at home to win and cover against the Vikings.
It’s been a media circus around the Vikings all week since the ageless Brett Favre made his return to the Vikings for his second year with Minnesota. He came back on a plane followed by the media on Tuesday and was at practice the rest of the week, but second-year RB/WR Percy Harvin was sent to the hospital on Thursday after a seizure on the field due to migraine headaches.
Distractions too numerous to overcome and get real football practice in for the Vikings this week.
The Niners got outstanding play from their backups in Indy last week, winning 37-17 and getting 34 points from the backup QBs. Now it’s time for starting QB Alex Smith to lead the first-team offense down the field a few times for scores. He’ll likely play most of the first half and should be able to produce at least 10 points. Then I really like the backups and the effort they showed and the experience they have with QB David Carr.
I’ll lay the chalk and go with San Francisco in this one.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
ROCKETMAN
San Diego @ Milwaukee
Play: San Diego
San Diego is 73-48 overall this year and leads the NL west division. Milwaukee has a 58-64 overall on the season. San Diego is 14-5 this year when playing on Sunday. San Diego is 23-12 this year against left handed starters. San Diego is 71-47 overall on grass this year. San Diego is 26-13 this year in day games. San Diego bullpen has a 2.85 ERA overall this year and a 3.21 ERA on the road this season. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.09 ERA at home this year. Jon Garland is 12-8 with a 3.19 ERA in all starts this year and 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Manny Parra is 3-9 with a 5.36 ERA overall this year. Garland is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego today
JEFF ALEXANDER
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -140
Yesterday, St. Louis snapped its five-game losing streak, and I expect it to build on that win today. The Giants shouldn't get much of anything off of Garcia, who is carrying an ERA of 1.76 at home this season. So this one comes down to run support, and St. Louis should be able to cross the plate on Zito, who is 1-4 (1-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.24 in his career against the Cards. The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Cards.
Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes in NFL preseason action, as I’ll grab the points with the Vikings at San Francisco.
This selection has nothing at all to do with Brett Favre, who will start under center for Minnesota but only be on the field for about 10 plays. It has more to do with the fact that I prefer the Vikes’ backup QBs – Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels – to the signal-callers the 49ers will be trotting out tonight.
Rosenfels in particular was fantastic in last week’s 28-7 rout of the Rams, going 23-for-34 for 310 yards, three TDs and no picks. Since Rosenfels saw such extensive time last week and Jackson threw just four passes, I look for Jackson to get the bulk of the playing time here. Jackson knows this offense extremely well (remember, he was Minnesota’s starter and led the team to the playoffs in 2008 before Favre came on board and bumped him to second-string) and should have plenty of success against San Francisco’s second- and third-string units.
Meanwhile, 49ers QB Alex Smith will likely play most of the first quarter, but he was highly ineffective against the Colts’ first-stringers last Sunday, going 3-for-9 for 37 yards and one INT. Behind Smith are veteran David Carr and rookie Nate Davis, with Davis expected to see the majority of the playing time. So what we could end up with in the second half is the rookie Davis vs. the Vikings’ veteran combos of Jackson and Rosenfels. I like my odds there!
The Vikings have won and covered three straight preseason road games since last August, prevailing by a combined score of 58-20 while giving up just one offensive touchdown. To get a couple of points here is a bonus.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
2-0 comp play sweep on Saturday, as both the Bucanneers and San Francisco-St. Louis under the total come through.
Another baseball total for Sunday. Have to look for some runs this afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love, as Washington has been able to get a read on Roy Oswalt of late.
Oswalt lost his first Philadelphia start to Washington back on July 30th, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings of work. The Nats have been able to reach Oswalt for 15 earned runs in his last 19 innings of work against them.
As for Washington starter Scott Olsen, he has allowed 15 runs to score over his last 13 innings of work for an 0-3 mark. Olsen has also allowed 9 runs his last 11 innings pitched versus the Phils.
These teams have now played 11 times this year, and 9 of the 11 have landed on the over.
Go over on Sunday in the Nats-Phils contest.
1♦ OVER
Chris Jordan
Revenge!
Roy Oswalt's debut in a Phillies uniform was ruined by the Nationals, who touched him for five runs and seven hits in six innings of an 8-1 blowout in D.C. on July 30.
In fact, Oswalt is 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA against the Nationals this season.
Double Revenge!
Oswalt has settled in nicely with his new team, as he is now on a 2-0 run with a 2.21 ERA in three starts for his new team - with both wins coming at home.
It's easily apparent Oswalt has been inspired being part of a playoff race, as the Phillies lead the wild card race by one game and sit 2 1/2 games behind Atlanta in the National League East.
I suspect he'll get plenty of run support, as his teammates will be out for revenge after the Nats pounded out an 8-1 win last night.
Shouldn't be an issue against Scott Olsen, who is 0-3 with a 10.95 ERA since beating Atlanta on July 29. The left-hander is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 14 starts against the Phillies.
All Phillies today, with Oswalt getting it done over Olsen.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
Bobby Maxwell
I delivered a FREE winner Saturday when the Rays got the win in Oakland against the A's. Tonight, I'll do it again on the diamond as I go with the Giants to score the road win in St. Louis.
It’s the rubber match between the Giants and Cardinals in St. Louis tonight and I’m going with San Francisco and lefty Barry Zito (8-7, 3.56 ERA) to steal the Sunday win before they head out of town.
Zito has had a strong season for the Giants, but has lacked run support in some games he’s pitched wonderfully in. Last two outings haven’t been so great as he’s allowed eight runs in 11.1 innings, but prior to that he had a streak of six straight games where he didn’t allow more than three runs in an outing and yet got only one win.
Last time Zito faced these Cardinals he was magnificent, going eight innings and holding St. Louis scoreless on three hits, striking out 10. San Francisco is on surges of 4-1 in Zito’s last five starts in the third game of a series and they are 7-1 the last eight times he’s faced a team from the N.L. Central. They are on further streaks of 35-16 against Central division teams and 9-3 in the third game of a series.
St. Louis has Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.58 ERA) on the hill and he’s given up 15 runs in his last three starts, covering 16.1 innings. On Tuesday he gave up three runs in six innings of a 3-2 loss to the Brewers. He is a career 0-1 against the Giants, giving up four runs in six innings of work.
The Cardinals are on slides of 0-5 as a home favorite and 1-6 at home.
San Francisco is 6-2 in its last eight games in St. Louis and the Giants are 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head clashes with the Cardinals overall. I’m going to grab the plus-money and play the Giants behind Zito in this one.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Joel Tyson
4-1 free play run.
How about a low-scoring game today when the Braves and Cubs meet up?
Friday's showdown landed on the low side, while yesterday's meeting should have stayed under, but went over in the late innings. With Mike Minor and Randy Wells on the hill, there is a strong chance Sunday's game will land on the low side.
Minor is making making his third start at this level, and he has worked 12 innings of 5 run ball thus far. Certainly not dominating, but also not too bad. Wells is fresh off a 7 inning, 1 run loss to San Diego, and has been a bit of a mystery to Atlanta bats of late.
In Wells' last 3 starts against Atlanta, he has allowed just 3 runs in his 19 innings of work against them.
4 of the last 5 meetings between the teams at Wrigley Field have stayed under the posted total, and 6 of the last 8 overall on the north side have also stayed low.
Look for the under to be the way to go in the Atlanta-Chicago game to conclude the weekend.
2♦ UNDER
Stephen Nover
I am on a 57-39-1 run on my baseball free selections.
Tonight I like the Minnesota Twins against the Los Angeles Angels in the Sunday Night TV Game for my complimentary play.
The Angels run of three straight AL West Division titles is going to end this season. At 62-62 the Angels are who they are - an average team.
The Angels are well below average on the road, where they have lost 18 of 25. The Angels are 4-11 on the road against winning teams spanning the past two months.
Minnesota has adapted well to its new home, going 39-22 at Target Field, including 10 of 12 there. Since the All-Star break, the Twins are a major league-best 24-10.
This matchup is competitively priced due to starting pitchers Jered Weaver and Scott Baker.
Weaver is the flashy one leading the majors in strikeouts with 186.
But fatigue could be hitting Weaver, as he comes in after being battered by Boston in his last start, allowing six earned runs on six hits - including two home runs - while walking two in five innings this past Tuesday at Fenway Park.
Weaver has averaged 114 pitches during his last six starts. Only once prior to this season had he thrown more than 119 pitches in a game.
Weaver also is not a good road pitcher, especially when compared to what he's accomplished at home. At Angel Stadium this season, Weaver is 5-2 with a 1.65 ERA. On the road, though, Weaver is 6-6 with a 4.40 ERA.
Baker's overall numbers don't look like much. He's 10-9 with a 4.86 ERA. But he's a control pitcher who is proving to be an excellent fit for Target Field.
Baker has issued one or none walks in 10 of his last 13 outings. He can get stung by the long ball because he keeps his pitches in the strike zone. Baker, though, has been aided by the long power alleys at Target Field. This is reflected on his home run breakdown. It shows he's allowed seven homers in 72 1/3 innings at home, compared to surrendering 14 homers on the road in the exact same number of innings. That's a 2-to-1 ratio of more homers allowed on the road.
It's also a big reason why Baker is 7-3 with a 4.23 ERA at home.
3♦ MINNESOTA
JIM FEIST
CINCINNATI REDS / LOS ANGELES DODGERS
PLAY: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Reds still holding onto first place in the NL Central over the Cardinals thanks in part to sweeps of Florida and Arizona. The Reds started this series at LA with a nice win on Friday snapping a 12-game losing streak at Dodger Stadium. Branson Arroyo will start for the Reds with a 13-7 mark and 3.87 ERA. After a two game losing streak, Arroyo has won three of his last four starts and allowed just six total earned runs over 26 1/3 innings. As for the Dodgers, they look about out of it as they trail the Padres by nearly a dozen games. The one bit of good news is that Manny Ramirez returned to the starting lineup on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw starts for the Dodgers with a 11-7 record and 3.03 ERA this season. Kershaw is 7-3 at home this season in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers snapping the Reds winning streak on Saturday night and the fact that they have dominated Cincy at home, I'm sticking with the Dodgers here on Sunday.
Jimmy Moore
Minnesota @ San Francisco
Pick: Minnesota +3
The NFL pre-season is all about motivation and who will be playing. With Favre back in the fold for Minnesota look for him to play a couple of series and then look for both of the other QB's to be very motivated to show what they have to battle for the backup role. Frisco doesn't really have any motivation of note and they have not been over the last 2 pre-seasons. Don't get caught up in their win over Indy since the Colts don't care one bit about the pre-season.
Tom Freese
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Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Arizona starter Daniel Hudson has allowed 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. Hudson has 21 strikeouts and just 3 walks in his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 4-1 their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of under 40%. Colorado starter Jhoulys Chacin has allowed 13 runs in his last 17 innings of work. The Rockies are 15-36 their last 51 games as road underdogs. Chacin is 2-6 his last 8 starts. The Rockies are 8-22 their last 30 road gamed vs. righty starters.
Cajun Sports
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres need a win on Sunday to not only keep pace in their division but to halt a possible sweep at the hands of the host Brewers who have taken the first two games in this series. We see that the Padres play particularly well on Sunday this season posting a record of 14-5 picking up over 10 units of profit for their backers in those contests. San Diego is also 23-12 versus left-handed starters and 26-13 during day games. Add to these angles the fact that the Padres are 16-5 against teams with a losing record during the second half of the season we believe San Diego is a solid play on Sunday versus the Brewers. Jon Garland will take the bump for the Padres on Sunday afternoon with his 12-8 record overall this season and a perfect mark of 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA versus the Brewers in his career. His last three outings have been solid with a 2-1 record and an ERA of only 0.90. The Brewers will send Manny Parra to the mound with his 3-9 record and ERA of 5.36 on the year. His last three starts have not been good with him going 0-1 and an ERA of 5.06 over that span. With strong technical and fundamental support for the visitors, we will back the Padres here on Sunday afternoon as they grab a win over the Brewers and halt a possible sweep.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Diego Padres 5 Milwaukee Brewers 1