Steve Merril
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Under 9
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Daniel Hudson has been a great find for the Diamondbacks this season. He's 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts, but he is 3-1 with Arizona. Hudson has given up just seven earned runs in 29.2 innings pitched in the National League. Not a single Rockies hitter has ever seen Hudson before in his brief career which gives him a nice advantage in this game. Colorado's offensive woes have continued on the road where they are hitting just .230 as a team. Over their last eight games, the Rockies team batting average is hovering right around .210. They haven’t done much better in daytime games going Under the total in 24 of those 41 games.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Colorado’s Jhoulys Chacin makes his third start against Arizona this year. Both of his first two starts went Under the total. He has given up just five earned runs and 10 hits in 11.7 innings pitched against the Diamondbacks. The righty struck out 14 while walking only five in those two games. Adam LaRoche (1-6), Justin Upton (0-6), Kelly Johnson (1-5), Mark Reynolds (0-5), Gerardo Parra (0-1), and Rusty Ryal (0-1) all struggle with Chacin. The Diamondbacks are hitting only .227 against the rest of their division. They are hitting .250 in the daytime and have struggled offensively too. A lot of the Arizona totals are skewed towards the Over because of their bullpen, but Hudson has been able to go deep in games to prevent the terrible relievers from blowing his games. We expect another low-scoring game here so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Rockies and Diamondbacks this afternoon.
BEN BURNS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
After getting crushed by a score of 16-2 on Friday, the Red Sox bounced back with a 5-4 victory yesterday. That was a big win for Boston and a tough loss for Toronto. I call it a "tough loss" as the Jays battled back from a deficit, to force extra innings. However, they lost in the bottom of the 11th, on a walk-off homerun by Jed Lowrie. That type of loss can often be hard to bounce back from. On the other hand, that's the type of win that a team can build some real momentum from.
Boston reliever Daniel Bard noted: "A walk-off can certainly get us on a roll..."
Of course, it also helps to have the "hottter" starting pitcher.
Buchholz goes for the home team. Not only has he dominated the Jays, but he's also 4-0 with a superb 1.21 over his last five starts. That brings him to 14-5 with a 2.43 ERA on the season. That's the best ERA in the entire A.L.
Marcum pitched very well last time out. However, he got rocked by these same Red Sox in his previous start. In just over four innings, he gave up four home runs and eight earned runs. That brings him to 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA his last three starts.
Buchholz beat Marcum in that 8/11 start, with Boston winning by a score of 10-1. That was the second time that Buchholz has gotten the better of Marcum this season and it brought him to 5-1 with a 2.41 ERA his last six against the Jays.
The Red Sox are now 40-23 (+8.2) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. That includes a 14-7 (+4.2) mark this season. Consider laying the wood.
Tom Stryker
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Still 5.5 games back in the Wildcard standings and 6.5 games behind in the division, Boston needs wins to stay alive in the playoff race. A BoSox victory on Sunday afternoon shouldn't be a problem especially with right-hander Clay Buchholz on the mound.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Since getting blasted at Oakland on July 21st, Buchholz has been on a tear in his last five starts allowing only five earned runs and 26 hits in 37.1 innings of work. That's good enough for a spotless 4-0 record and a phenomenal 1.21 ERA! Clay's efforts at home are noteworthy too. Inside Fenway Park, No. 11 has been touched for only 18 earned runs and 52 hits in 64.2 frames. That adds up to a solid 6-3 mark and a respectable 2.51 ERA!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto's Shaun Marcum has struggled in two of his last three starts and he could be in a ton of trouble here. Facing the A's, Red Sox and Yankees, Marcum got tanked for 14 earned runs and 16 hits (six of which went over the fence) in 19.0 innings. That's bad enough for a 1-2 mark and a woeful 6.63 ERA!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Blue Jays have played well against division foes cashing 13 of their last 17. That fact is noted. However, the BoSox have nailed 35 of their last 51 as a home favorite including 20 of their last 26 with Clay holding the pearl. Take Boston with listed pitcher Buchholz.
Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -137
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Dodgers are 16-6 against the Reds over the last 3 seasons, including 7-1 at home. I expect LA's winning ways against Cincy to continue with Kershaw on the hill this afternoon. The southpaw is 2-0 on the money line with an ERA of 1.88 in his career against the Reds. The Dodgers are also 7-2 in Kershaw's last 9 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Arroyo is having a terrific season for the Reds, but he has never had much luck against the Dodgers. The righty is just 2-4 (2-8 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.28 in 10 career starts against LA. It is also worth noting that the Reds are 3-7 in his last 10 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are a solid 34-14 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons, and I'll grab them in this price range today.
Gill Alexander
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
BAL (+150) vs TEX
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Hunter has a 9.39ERA in his last 4 starts, getting out of the 4th inning only once over that span. Meanwhle, Millwood is coming off a 8IP, 1ER, 6H performance v Sea and has a career 3.21ERA v Tex. The Orioles are 12-7 under Buck Showalter and are coming off a bizarro win over the Rangers in which Brain Bergesen beat Cliff Lee. The Birds actually raked the Texas ace, and with Hunter taking the hill for this one, there's absolutely no reason not to grab the O's at a hefty +150.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
CWS (+100) vs KAN
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Danks has a lifetime 2.70 career ERA v KC. He has a 1.63ERA in 4 starts at KC. He has a 3.29FIP (18th best in MLB) and 4.03xFIP w a slightly "lucky" .276BABIP. Greinke has a 3.39FIP and 3.78xFIP but has a 4.82ERA in his last 4 outings v ChiSox, a club that has at least 10 hits in each of their last 8G while hitting .335 over that stretch. Greinke gets just 3.31 runs of support per game in 2010, the 5th worst mark in MLB. I'll happily grab Danks and the White Sox at this affordable price knowing that Greinke's lack of offensive backup is at epidemic proportions.
Sac Lawson
ARI (-130) vs COL
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Daniel Hudson has been an absolutely fantastic pickup for the Dbacks. Simply cannot deny that, but I'm putting him aside for this matchup. This bet is all about Chacin.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chacin is a youngster that showed tons of promise early on this season, but it was apparent that he simply was not as effective facing a team multiple times. Arizona has seen Chacin this season, seen him on a few occasions, and that's a huge advantage against this guy.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Diamondbacks have power from both sides of the plate, and they've played good solid baseball in the month of August. They are a game away from sweeping the Rockies, who continue to struggle like crazy on the road. I expect their struggles at the plate to continue against Hudson, and I expect Chacin to be a whole lot less effective on the road facing a team that has seen him numerous times.
Dwayne Bryant
MIN (-116) vs ANA
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wanted to make this a big play, but just couldn't do it. I did bet this, but just as a SMALL action wager. Taking a 39-22 MLB home team off a big home loss is a solid play by itself. Jered Weaver has been phenomenal this season, but he's a different pitcher on the road (4.40 ERA) as opposed to at home (1.65 ERA). The Angels are just 6-8 in Weaver's road starts. He's also not quite as effective under the lights (3.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) as he is during the day (2.19 ERA, 0.99 WHIP).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
On the flip side, Scott Baker is better at home (4.23 ERA) than on the road (5.47 ERA). He's also much better at night (4.58 ERA) as opposed to daytime starts (6.88 ERA). Given that this is a night game at Target Field, and based on each hurler's splits, the pitching edge isn't quite as clear as you'd think when first seeing these two names. Weaver & the Angels did beat Baker & the Twins 6-3 in Angel Stadium back on 4/5. Love the rematch angle here.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I also like the bullpen edge for the Twins at home. The Angels pen owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road, while the Twins pen sports a 3.45 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home. However, it should be noted that the Angels pen has been pitching very well lately, so the edge may not be as great as the numbers indicate.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Twins are batting .295 and scoring 5.3 runs per game at home this season against righties. But Weaver is in clear bounce-back territory after getting rocked for 6 runs in 5 innings in Boston in his last start. But the Twins are also in bounce-back mode after getting pasted by the Angels last night, 9-3. The Twins are 4-1 at home this season when coming off a home loss of 4 or more runs.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Angels are 2-9 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, which means they have not been able to carry over solid offensive production into a second straight contest. They're also just 1-7 in Weaver's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. And let's not forget that they're 7-18 in their last 25 road games.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series, which means they know how to close out a series. They're also 43-13 in their last 56 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 18-6 in Baker's last 24 starts as a home favorite. But I have to temper my enthusiasm, as the Twins are 1-7 in Baker's last 8 starts vs. the Angels. At any rate, when I put it all together it adds up to a SMALL play on the Twins tonight.
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers over Cincinnati
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Although the Reds have been playing well on the road over the last month, still must respect the Dodgers with hurler Kershaw (11-7, 3.03) hitting the bump. Recall, LA has won 18 of 24 in this series at home, while the Reds are 1-4 with RHP Arroyo versus the Dodgers. Kershaw sports a 1.88 ERA life time in 14 innings of work against the Reds. Plus the Dodgers are 11-4 on Sunday’s with their talented lefty.
John Ryan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
5* graded play on Seattle as they take on the Yankees set to start at 1:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Weather could be a factor and that would certainly favor the Mariners even more than the model grading shows. A rain delay would get Sabathia out of the game and the Seattle bullpen has been quite good of late. Seattle is also 71-54 (+21.7 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. Seattle bats have come to life after a very dismal season. Over the past seven games they are batting 271 with 13 home runs and scoring 5 RPG. Their bullpen has posted a 3.37 ERA over the past seven games. Yankees offense has been sputtering and are batting just 232 with just 15 extra base hits over the last seven games spanning 220 AB. Take Seattle.
Matt Fargo
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Diego Padres
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Padres have dropped the first two games of this series after riding a five-game winning streak on the road so this game has become pretty important. They still have a five-game lead in the National League West but with seven games remaining with the Giants still, these are the games that need to be won. A solid end to the roadtrip will add some momentum heading into their homestand. Despite a couple blowups Friday and Saturday, the pitching for the Padres remains absolutely outstanding as the team ERA sits at 3.27 which is the best in baseball by a decent amount. The Padres have allowed two runs or fewer in nine of their last 16 games as they continue to mow down the opposing bats. This is a great position for that to continue. Jon Garland gets the call for San Diego and he has been outstanding. He has tossed five straight quality starts for the Padres including two straight on the road where his numbers have not been as solid. What has been solid has been his daytime performances as he is 5-2 with a 2.94 ERA in eight starts with San Diego going 6-2 in those games. He is three-for-three in quality outings against the Brewers in his career including seven innings of shutout ball this season. The Brewers counter with Manny Parra and he has been the exact opposite. He has only one quality outing in his last 10 starts and Milwaukee is just 1-6 over his last seven starts. Also opposite of Garland has been his performance in daytime games as he is 1-6 with a 6.99 ERA in five start nine relief appearances. He started against the Padres once last season and allowed six runs on 13 hits in just 5.2 innings. Play on favorites with a moneyline between -125 and -175 after three straight games where they committed no errors and starting a pitcher who allowed one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 80-25 (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* San Diego Padres
Scott Rickenbach
White Sox @ Royals
PICK: Under 7.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The White Sox have gone over the total in six straight games and the Royals have gone over the total in four straight games. Of course the most recent three games in those streaks have been against each other and this includes yesterday’s double header where both games went into extra innings and where both games went over the total. Despite all this, and the extra usage of each bullpen, the fact is that this is an excellent spot for an under here. The key is the starting pitching match-up as each hurler is certainly capable of throwing a gem in this spot. Danks has a solid 3.33 ERA on the season and Greinke has a solid 3.90 ERA on the season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Danks gave up five earned runs in his most recent start but, prior to that the southpaw had allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. The White Sox are 4-2 to the under in his six daytime starts this season. As for the Royals, they are 6-2 to the under in Greinke’s last 8 starts. The Royals right-hander has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 12 starts. Look for strong starts from both hurlers here. Danks has a 1.63 ERA in four career starts at Kauffman Stadium. Greinke has a 3.52 ERA and a miniscule 1.04 WHIP in day games this season! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.
Dave Price
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -123
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
It's payback time for Tampa Bay, which was no-hit by Braden earlier this season. The Rays haven't forgotten, and they will be very aggressive at the plate today. This afternoon I expect the Rays to treat Braden like they have just about every other solid starter in the AL this season. The Rays are 22-7 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season, defeating these starters by an average score of 5.5 to 3.3.
Info Plays
3* on Pittburgh Pirates +155
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Reasons the Pirates win:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. This is a 43-21 ML System hitting 67.2% since 1997. This system is 9-2 this season. Bet the Pirates at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
MILWAUKEE +1.14 over San Diego
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Padres hit a snag in the road by losing the first two games and this is by far its worst pitching match-up of the series. We’ve been playing against that imposter, John Garland, all season and there’s not a single reason to stop now. Garland is coming off three strong starts in a row. He has posted an ERA of 0.90 over that stretch but he also faced the D-Backs, Pirates and Cubbies, not exactly the cream of the crop. What’s more notable is that Garland walked 13 batters and struck out 12 over that aforementioned three-game span and at this level you can’t keep getting away with issuing free passes unscathed, especially with average stuff. He continues to allow multiple base-runners in multiple innings and has un absolutely unsustainable 80% strand rate over the last month (31 days). Milwaukee has scored 16 times in the first two games of this series and that includes 10 in the first game in which the always-tough Yovani Gallardo started. Manny Parra is simply a much-better pitcher in terms of skills but not experience. Parra has 105 K’s in 102 frames and he’s coming off back-to-back strong starts against the D-Backs and Rockies, the latter in Colorado in which he allowed just 2 ER. Parra comes with risk in that he can have difficulty throwing strikes. However, this one is much more about playing against Garland on the road as the chalk. Play: Milwaukee +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
SAN FRANCISCO –2½ over Minnesota
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Despite being preseason, there’s a right time to step in on certain teams and there’s a right time to step in against certain teams and this appears to be the right spot to do both. The Vikes could be a team in serious trouble. There's the distracting Brett Favre saga, which includes Favre's apparently tumultuous relationship with head coach Brad Childress. There are the migraine headaches to the team's most promising receiver, Percy Harvin, there's running back Adrian Peterson's persistent fumbling and there's the whispers that team is languishing under Childress and the latter is the most significant. When players stop believing in its coach only bad things will follow. Favre will play one or two series and that’s it. The first unit will play one quarter and Adrian Peterson will not play with any group besides the first unit. Also, you might recall that the Vikes beat the 49ers last season on a miracle “Hail Mary” on the game’s final play when Greg Lewis caught a 32-yard touchdown pass from Favre in the back of the end zone. The 49ers are deep defensively and they absolutely crushed the Colts last week in Indy by a score of 37-17. Rookie Anthony Dixon of Mississippi State rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries and you can expect more of the same here, as the kid looks terrific and determined. Alex Smith will see limited playing time while third string QB, Nate Davis will very likely take the most snaps with David Carr getting some work in also. Said 49ers offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye when asked about third-string quarterback Nate Davis, "The one ability he has is if he sees an open receiver, he'll hit him. He'll get the ball to him." Coach Mike Singletary believes winning starts in training camp and into the preseason and Singletary is instilling that belief into everyone. The Vikes will travel far for a meaningless preseason game under some unfavorable conditions and with Singletary’s “hate to lose” philosophy, give a significant edge to the team that wants it more. Play: San Francisco –2½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
INSIDER ANGLES
Cincinnati vs. LA Dodgers
The Cincinnati Reds had won 13 of their last 16 road games entering play on Saturday night, including the first game of this series vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers here at Chavez Ravine n Friday, and we look for that road success to continue on Sunday at a nice underdog price.
The Reds have now opened up a 4.5 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central due to this hot streak, and they are hitting the ball well, averaging 5.10 runs per game in the last 10 games. Conversely, the Dodgers have now dropped all the way down to fourth place in the National League West, and they are not hitting a lick, averaging 2.60 runs in their last 10 contests.
Bronson Arroyo gets this start for the Reds, and he ahs been brilliant over the last four months after a rough April. Arroyo is 13-7 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP for the whole season, and this is despite going 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA for the first month of the season! He has 13 Quality Starts since May 1, and Arroyo pitched very well in his only other start vs. the Dodgers this season, allowing one run on only five hits in seven innings.
The Dodgers counter with Clayton Kershaw, and although he has pitched well, LA as a team is just 2-5 in his last seven starts. Kershaw is 7-3 with a nice 3.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the season, so his recent lack of success has everything to do with the Dodgers’ lack of offense. The bad news for Kershaw here is that he once again does not figure to get much run support.
We will gladly take the better and hotter Cincinnati team at this nice price vs. a team that is not hitting.
Pick: Reds +125