Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 24

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Cincinnati at Arizona
The Bengals head to Arizona tonight in search of their first preseason victory after dropping contests against the Chiefs (41-39) and Jets (25-17). Cincinnati is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2)

Game 279-280: San Diego at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 115.806; San Francisco 124.394
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Under

Game 281-282: Cincinnati at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 121.517; Arizona 120.477
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at BC
The Roughriders head to BC tonight and come into the contest with a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Saskatchewan is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+3 1/2)

Game 295-296: Calgary at Ottawa (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 120.005; Ottawa 106.237
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 14; 53
Vegas Line: Calgary by 8 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8 1/2); Over

Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at BC (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 116.826; BC 117.979
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 55
Vegas Line: BC by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+3 1/2); Over

WNBA

Phoenix at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to stave off elimination as they face a Phoenix team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Los Angeles is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4)

Game 613-614: Atlanta at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 107.191; Chicago 113.020
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 6; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4); Under

Game 615-616: Phoenix at Los Angeles (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.355; Los Angeles 115.345
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 155
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4); Under

Tony George

San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Diego Chargers +7

The Niners offense has been woeful. A lot of that can be contributed the lack of a quality backup at QB behind Kappernick. You have Gabbert (who looked like Gabbert at Jax in his first two appearances which is not good) and 2 other guys that are scout team QB's at best. Averaging only 208 yards on offense through their first 2 preseason games is a big concern, and while the starters get a full half here, I still think the Chargers are getting too many points here. San Fran has given up 57 points and scored 3 in the preseason. I cannot see backing them laying 6 even though they have a "circle the wagons" type scenario here in Week 3 at home.

The Chargers new offense looks decent, and out of the 2 teams to date, San Diego looks to be more in sync and have a better chemistry going headed into this game. They also have Dwight Freeney running around wreaking havoc. The Chargers are coming off an butt kicking loss at Seattle and will also want to make amends, especially on defense this week, so I expect a hard fought game on Sunday and an outcome when the final score is closer than a 6 point spread.

Rob Vinciletti

Mets vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 7.5

The Mets have Bartolo Colon making the start after skipping a turn in the rotation. Colon and the Mets have the intangible factor going and the thinking is Colon will want to pitch well and bounce back on the mound with the motivation after losing his mother. This game also fits a totals system that has cashed all 13 times since 2004. We want to play the Under in the games where the home team is off a -140 or higher 2 run win and scored 5 or more runs. vs an opponent off a road dog loss at +140 and scored 4 or less runs provided both teams had 1 error in the game. These games average a shade over 5 runs. Look for this game to stay under.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Don Best Consensus

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Fiers has been lights-out since Milwaukee put him in the rotation earlier this month, winning all three of the outings, compiling a 0.86 ERA, a 0.52 WHIP and a .116 opponents' batting average in the process. He also has 25 strikeouts in 21 innings as a starter, a stat highlighted by a 14-punchout performance against the Cubs on Aug. 14. Fiers is just the fourth pitcher in history to surrender two earned runs or fewer and strike out at least 25 in the first three starts of a season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. As the Brew Crew try to avoid the sweep, cash a ticket before the game is over!

Ben Burns

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -104

Though we long ago declared the Cubs out of contention, this has been a nice series for them so far. Not so much for Baltimore, however, who has lost by scores of 4-1 and 7-2. Going up against Tsuyoshi Wada in the series finale is not likely to cure the Orioles' woes at the plate. With a pretty huge lead in the American League East entering the day, there isn't a real sense of urgency for Baltimore right now. Look for the Cubs to finish of the sweep.

Save for one start, Wada has been as good as advertised. The last time we saw him he was throwing five scoreless innings in a win against the Giants. He's allowed two runs or less in six of his seven starts overall. In his last five starts, his ERA is 2.08. His WHIP in his last three is 0.96. In his last four starts at Wrigley, his ERA is 1.82.

It's tough to like Baltimore's chances in the postseason (assuming they get there) now that it's known they will be without third baseman Manny Machado for the rest of the year. Losing the gold glover makes them significantly weaker in the field. Meanwhile, the Cubs have the best fielding percentage in the majors since August 2nd.

Chalk this up as just "one of those series" where the better team doesn't play up to par.

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: New York Mets

Edges - Mets: Colon 43 strikeouts and 7 walks last seven starts, and 7-2 last nine away team starts. Dodgers: Corriea 4-9 with 6.65 ERA hem team starts, and 4-9 day team starts this season. With Correia a pitiful 3-14 in his last seventeen team starts during August we?ll bite with this value dog. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

This might be the week that breaks or makes the Pirates. The Bucs have lost seven of their last 10 games as they head into the weekend series against division leading Milwaukee. Though they Bucs had won two straight, they almost need a sweep or at least 2 of three from the Brewers to assure they stay in the race. Plus, St Louis is still ahead of them also. Vance Worley will go to the hill for the Bucs. Worley has a nice 5-3 record, 2.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIp this season. However, Worley has been hit hard his last two outings, both losses. The 26-year old righthander has allowed eight earned runs over his last 11 1/3 innings including four home runs. The four round-trippers are more than he's allowed in his previous eight starts. Mike Fiers will start for the Brewers. Fiers has just seven appearances and three starts this season for a fine 1.29 ERA and 3-1 record. Opponents are hitting just .149 against him in 28 innings and he's struck out 30 and walked just six. Since Fiers rejoined the rotation in August, he's 3-0 and allowed just two earned runs over 21 innings. The Pirates have not fared well in Milwaukee, going 13-51 in their last 64 trips to Wisconsin. Too much of a pitching and matchup edge here on Sunday with the Brewers. Don't like laying the near buck-fifty price, but I'll do it in this case.

Art Aronson

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals

The visiting San Francisco Giants will send Ryan Vogelsong (7-9, 3.73 ERA) to the hill; Vogelsong is coming off a rain shortened start where he allowed two runs over four innings. The right-hander is 1-2 with rough 6.39 ERA in eight outings versus the Nationals where he has allowed them to hit .292 in 25 innings of work. Note that Vogelsong has gone 1-2 with an 8.83 ERA in his last four games against Washington after giving up a season-high six runs over six-plus innings against it in June. The Nationals will counter with Stephen Strasburg (10-10, 3.41 ERA) who is coming off his best start of the season; Strasburg would give up one run on three hits over eight innings to get the victory over the Diamondbacks last week. Note that Strasburg is 3-0 with a very respectable 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four careers starts versus the Giants (also keep in mind that Strasburg has had his best performances at home this season, going 8-2 with a 2.30 ERA at Nationals Park). The Nationals are 45-25 in front of the home town crowd and have won 11 of their last 12 games overall coming into this contest, while also having won six of the last eight meetings against the Giants in Washington. I think the Nats are worth the price of admission here, do you?

Art Aronson's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

SAN DIEGO PADRES AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: SAN DIEGO PADRES -118

Ian Kennedy vs. Chase Anderson as the Padres and Diamondbacks wrap up their weekend set at the Chase. One of my late season theories comes into play here, and we’ll see how it works out this time around.

That thought process applies to Anderson, who has been one of the few good stories in an otherwise brutal campaign for the Diamondbacks. He has surpassed expectations by a very wide margin. Anderson has never been regarded as anything close to an elite prospect. He was a ninth round draft pick who signed for a high five figures after pitching in relief at Oklahoma, and the profile on him was as a guy who might fit as a middle reliever. Scrap that, as Anderson has done a terrific job on a staff that has struggled and he’ll be heading to 2015 camp with a rotation spot virtually locked up.

But…Anderson is now breaking new ground in terms of innings pitched. He will establish a new career high with today’s start, and one of my preferred angles late in the season is to monitor and often play against young pitchers where fatigue could absolutely come into play. This is not a hard and fast rule, it’s just one key variable to monitor. As it applies to Anderson, there is at least some evidence that he could be wearing down. His last two starts have not been good, and his most recent outing was really ugly, especially from a command standpoint. Based on that, I would say that Anderson is at least a candidate to see a reduction in effectiveness at this point. I would also suggest that if the trend continues, the Diamondbacks should strongly consider shutting him down or at least strictly limiting him the rest of the way. It’s not like they’re contending, so why gamble on a fatigue-related injury?

As for Kennedy, he’s just hoping his Padres teammates do a little better job of having his back than they did on Tuesday at Chavez Ravine. The Friars made some horrific plays and decisions in that game, and what was a nice early lead for the Padres ended up with them being on the wrong side of a 8-6 decision. Kennedy will be returning to his former home digs here, and he has generally pitched very well at Chase.

I don’t see a whole lot as far as the team data is concerned that can get me off the Padres here. They’ve gone back into a bit of an offensive funk the last couple of games, but it’s not like the Snakes are crushing the baseball. So I’m going to bank on Anderson being more vulnerable than he has at previous points this season, and I’ll go ahead and spot the reasonable price with the Padres.

Mike Davis

Manchester United (-135) over Sunderland

The transfer window closes August 31st and Manchester United is under tremendous pressure to make some big moves, especially after their first league match defeat versus Swansea at Old Trafford. I bring that up because Louis Van Gaal has clearly stated that he needs better players. It was evident in MU’s opening Barclays Premier League fixture loss to Swansea City (1-2). Van Gaal used his 3-5-2 system in the first half and United fell behind 1-0. At the half, he switched to the 4-2-3-1 and that is very telling. “We were not playing well and we were behind, so I changed the system to one they have used a lot at United before,” Van Gaal said after the game. Newly acquired Marcos Rojo’s versatility will certainly help Manchester United run Van Gaal’s new system but he alone is not a cure-all.

Sunderland defeated Manchester United 1-0 back on May 3rd of this year in League play. However, this is a much different situation. This is a pivotal, early game for Van Gaal’s club and he will have them ready to play. United will likely get the services of Robin Van Persie back this week after he was declared unfit for the opening fixture. As muddy as the waters are for Man U, they still have better overall talent than Sunderland and I look for them to respond on Sunday. Take Manchester United.

River City Sharps

Brewers -140

As many of you know, we are really not big fans of playing home favorites at more than about -130, but we are going to throw caution to the wind here and take a hard look at the Milwaukee Brewers and Mike Fiers against Vance Worley and the Pittsburgh Pirates. We thought about the RL (and if you are uncomfortable with the big chalk, the RL isn't a bad play...would probably dial down to 2 Units) but we are going to fire with Fiers and the Brew Crew here at home. He has ben absolutely fantastic since entering the rotation for Milwaukee and is making a strong case to be in their possible playoff rotation. He has won three consecutive starts, only allowing two earnd runs in those wins, while Worley was absolutely shelled in his last start vs. the Braves (an RCS 3 Unit winner) and is 0-2 with a 5.40 career ERA against Milwaukee. This game has major playoff implications as the Brewers not find themselves only 0.5 game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL central, while the Bucs are within 1.5 games of the Giants for the second wildcard position. We expect another outstanding effort from Fiers and the Brew Crew to hit Worley hard this afternoon at Miller Park.

Steve Janus

Boston Red Sox +162

This is a great spot to back the Red Sox as a massive home dog. Boston has to be sick and tired of losing, as they have dropped 7 straight. I look for the Red Sox to come out extremely motivated and cash in a big win this afternoon. Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma has a 7.81 ERA and 2.052 WHIP over 3 career starts (0-3 team record), including a start vs Boston earlier this season that saw him give up 5 runs on 8 hits in just 4 innings of work.

System - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BOSTON) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts are 34-13 (72%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Angels +134

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as an underdog to the Oakland A's Sunday. Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back ace Jered Weaver at this kind of price, and we'll take advantage today. The Angels will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first two games of this series as well.

Weaver is having yet another solid season, going 13-7 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.235 WHIP over 27 starts. The right-hander has dominated the A's throughout his career, going 11-9 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.

Scott Kazmir is having a solid season for Oakland, but he is being overvalued here as a result. The left-hander has faltered a bit of late, posting a 4.12 ERA over his last three starts. Kazmir is also 2-3 with a 4.66 ERA in five career starts against Los Angeles. He gave up five earned runs over three innings in his last start against the Angels.

Weaver is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Angels are 66-31 in Weaver's last 97 starts.

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Marlins +104

The Marlins are showing exceptional value as a small home underdog against the Rockies. While Miami dropped the second game of the series, they continued to swing a hot bat with 12 hits. It was the fourth time in the last 5 games that the Marlins finished with 10+ hits. They come in averaging 5.6 runs and are hitting .278 with a .360 OBP over their last 7 games.

I look for Miami's offense to put up a big number against the Rockies' Christian Bergman, who will be making his second trip up to the big leagues this season. During his first go of things, which lasted just 3 starts, Bergman had an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP and was rocked for 7 runs on 9 hits in just 3 innings in his last start at Coors Field.

There's a good chance Bergman doesn't make it deep into this game, which is also important to note, because the Rockies' bullpen has an awful 5.46 ERA and 1.555 WHIP at home. Adding to this is a nice system telling us to fade Colorado. Home teams with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in August games are just 96-141 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% system in favor of the Marlins.